Updates on clinically isolated syndrome and diagnostic criteria for multiple sclerosis

Quantitative Analysis of S1PR1 Expression in the Postmortem Multiple Sclerosis Central Nervous System

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated disease that is characterized by demyelination and inflammation in the central nervous system (CNS). Previous studies demonstrated that sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor (S1PR) modulators effectively inhibit S1PR1 in immune cell trafficking and reduce entry of pathogenic cells into the CNS. Studies have also implicated a nonimmune, inflammatory role of S1PR1 within the CNS in MS. In this study, we explored the expression of S1PR1 in the development and progression of demyelinating pathology of MS by quantitative assessment of S1PR1 expression using our S1PR1-specific radioligand, [3H]CS1P1, in the postmortem human CNS tissues including cortex, cerebellum, and spinal cord of MS cases and age- and sex-matched healthy cases. Immunohistochemistry with whole slide scanning for S1PR1 and various myelin proteins was also performed. Autoradiographic analysis using [3H]CS1P1 showed that the expression of S1PR1 was statistically significantly elevated in lesions compared to nonlesion regions in the MS cases, as well as normal healthy controls. The uptake of [3H]CS1P1 in the gray matter and nonlesion white matter did not significantly differ between healthy and MS CNS tissues. Saturation autoradiography analysis showed an increased binding affinity (Kd) of [3H]CS1P1 to S1PR1 in both gray matter and white matter of MS brains compared to healthy brains. Our blocking study using NIBR-0213, a S1PR1 antagonist, indicated [3H]CS1P1 is highly specific to S1PR1. Our findings demonstrated the activation of S1PR1 and an increased uptake of [3H]CS1P1 in the lesions of MS CNS. In summary, our quantitative autoradiography analysis using [3H]CS1P1 on human postmortem tissues shows the feasibility of novel imaging strategies for MS by targeting S1PR1.

The importance of the patient's perspective in decision-making in multiple sclerosis: Results of the OwnMS patient perspectives study

BACKGROUND

Research is needed to identify the unmet disease education and communication needs of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) to support informed decision-making, enable self-management and maintain independence for PwMS for as long as possible.

METHODS

An Expert Steering Group co-developed two studies for PwMS aged 18 years and over: a qualitative, online, patient community activity and a quantitative anonymised online survey. The quantitative survey was conducted in the UK from 12 September 2019 to 18 November 2019 amongst PwMS recruited via the Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Trust newsletter and their closed Facebook group. Questions explored the goals, desires, and knowledge gaps of PwMS. Self-reported data from people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) were collated and reviewed, and discussed by the Steering Group. This paper presents descriptive statistics of the quantitative survey findings.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 117 participants with RRMS. Most respondents (73%) had personal goals related to lifestyle and many (69%) were concerned about maintaining independence. More than half of respondents were worried about planning for the future in relation to income (56%), housing (40%) and most respondents also indicated MS had a negative impact on their lives, including their work life (73%) and social life (69%). Limited occupational support was forthcoming (17% were not provided with any support and only 27% report their work environment being adjusted to suit their needs). The ability to plan for the future and to understand the course of MS were highlighted as key priorities by respondents. A positive trend was observed between those who felt able to plan for the future and their knowledge of MS progression. The proportion of patients who report knowing a 'great deal' about MS prognosis and disability progression was low (16% and 9%, respectively), suggesting an increased role for clinical teams to provide information and education for PwMS. Communication between respondents and their clinical teams highlighted the role of specialist nurses for PwMS to provide holistic, informative support and demonstrated the level of comfort that PwMS have in discussing less clinical topics with these providers.

CONCLUSION

This UK nationwide survey highlighted some of the unmet needs in disease education and communication in a subgroup of UK patients with RRMS, which can impact quality of life. Discussing goals and planning alongside prognosis and disability progression with MS care teams may enable people with RRMS not only to make informed treatment decisions, but also to self-manage and plan for the future, factors which are important to maintain independence.

Subtypes of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis identified by network analysis

We used network analysis to identify subtypes of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis subjects based on their cumulative signs and symptoms. The electronic medical records of 113 subjects with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis were reviewed, signs and symptoms were mapped to classes in a neuro-ontology, and classes were collapsed into sixteen superclasses by subsumption. After normalization and vectorization of the data, bipartite (subject-feature) and unipartite (subject-subject) network graphs were created using NetworkX and visualized in Gephi. Degree and weighted degree were calculated for each node. Graphs were partitioned into communities using the modularity score. Feature maps visualized differences in features by community. Network analysis of the unipartite graph yielded a higher modularity score (0.49) than the bipartite graph (0.25). The bipartite network was partitioned into five communities which were named fatigue, behavioral, hypertonia/weakness, abnormal gait/sphincter, and sensory, based on feature characteristics. The unipartite network was partitioned into five communities which were named fatigue, pain, cognitive, sensory, and gait/weakness/hypertonia based on features. Although we did not identify pure subtypes (e.g., pure motor, pure sensory, etc.) in this cohort of multiple sclerosis subjects, we demonstrated that network analysis could partition these subjects into different subtype communities. Larger datasets and additional partitioning algorithms are needed to confirm these findings and elucidate their significance. This study contributes to the literature investigating subtypes of multiple sclerosis by combining feature reduction by subsumption with network analysis.

Treatment and Relapse Prevention of Typical and Atypical Optic Neuritis

Optic neuritis (ON) is an inflammatory condition involving the optic nerve. Several important typical and atypical ON variants are now recognized. Typical ON has a more favorable prognosis; it can be idiopathic or represent an early manifestation of demyelinating diseases, mostly multiple sclerosis (MS). The atypical spectrum includes entities such as antibody-driven ON associated with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody disease (MOGAD), chronic/relapsing inflammatory optic neuropathy (CRION), and sarcoidosis-associated ON. Appropriate and timely diagnosis is essential to rapidly decide on the appropriate treatment, maximize visual recovery, and minimize recurrences. This review paper aims at presenting the currently available state-of-the-art treatment strategies for typical and atypical ON, both in the acute phase and in the long-term. Moreover, emerging therapeutic approaches and novel steps in the direction of achieving remyelination are discussed.

Emerging Biomarkers of Multiple Sclerosis in the Blood and the CSF: A Focus on Neurofilaments and Therapeutic Considerations

INTRODUCTION

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is the most common immune-mediated chronic neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system (CNS) affecting young people. This is due to the permanent disability, cognitive impairment, and the enormous detrimental impact MS can exert on a patient's health-related quality of life. It is of great importance to recognise it in time and commence adequate treatment at an early stage. The currently used disease-modifying therapies (DMT) aim to reduce disease activity and thus halt disability development, which in current clinical practice are monitored by clinical and imaging parameters but not by biomarkers found in blood and/or the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Both clinical and radiological measures routinely used to monitor disease activity lack information on the fundamental pathophysiological features and mechanisms of MS. Furthermore, they lag behind the disease process itself. By the time a clinical relapse becomes evident or a new lesion appears on the MRI scan, potentially irreversible damage has already occurred in the CNS. In recent years, several biomarkers that previously have been linked to other neurological and immunological diseases have received increased attention in MS. Additionally, other novel, potential biomarkers with prognostic and diagnostic properties have been detected in the CSF and blood of MS patients.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, we summarise the most up-to-date knowledge and research conducted on the already known and most promising new biomarker candidates found in the CSF and blood of MS patients.

DISCUSSION

the current diagnostic criteria of MS relies on three pillars: MRI imaging, clinical events, and the presence of oligoclonal bands in the CSF (which was reinstated into the diagnostic criteria by the most recent revision). Even though the most recent McDonald criteria made the diagnosis of MS faster than the prior iteration, it is still not an infallible diagnostic toolset, especially at the very early stage of the clinically isolated syndrome. Together with the gold standard MRI and clinical measures, ancillary blood and CSF biomarkers may not just improve diagnostic accuracy and speed but very well may become agents to monitor therapeutic efficacy and make even more personalised treatment in MS a reality in the near future. The major disadvantage of these biomarkers in the past has been the need to obtain CSF to measure them. However, the recent advances in extremely sensitive immunoassays made their measurement possible from peripheral blood even when present only in minuscule concentrations. This should mark the beginning of a new biomarker research and utilisation era in MS.

Signs of neuroinflammation outweigh neurodegeneration as predictors for early conversion to MS

Background

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying multiple sclerosis include both inflammatory and degenerative processes. We aimed to study and compare markers of neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration in patients with first presentation of demyelinating disorder and to prospectively identify which of the studied markers serve as predictors for early conversion to multiple sclerosis. Thus, 42 patients with first clinical manifestations suggestive of demyelinating disease were included in a prospective study. Subjects underwent thorough history taking and clinical evaluation. Laboratory studies involved analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum chitinase 3-like 1 levels. Brain imaging included MRI and ultrasonographic assessment.

Results

T1 black holes, elevated oligoclonal bands (OCB), high baseline T2 lesion load, and enhanced MRI lesions were significantly higher in patients with 1st attack multiple sclerosis. Significantly higher CSF-OCB and serum chitinase 3-like 1 protein was detected in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to clinically isolated syndrome, and higher levels in MS convertors than non-convertors. Cognitive dysfunction evaluated by MoCA test and brain atrophy assessed using transcranial sonography did not show significant difference among the studied groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that heavy T2 lesion load served as the only predictor of conversion to MS.

Conclusion

Early conversion to MS after first attack of demyelination is related to detection of signs of neuroinflammation rather than neurodegeneration.

Differential disease phenotypes and progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: comparative analyses of single Canadian and Saudi Arabian clinics

Objective

Relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RR-MS) phenotypes differ widely although the variables contributing to this heterogeneity remain uncertain. To assess geographic and ethnic effects on RR-MS phenotypes, we investigated RR-MS patients in Canada and Saudi Arabia.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of patients followed in two MS Clinics was performed in Medina, Saudi Arabia and Edmonton, Canada. Demographic and clinical data were collected for each patient and analyzed using univariable and multivariable statistics. Univariable and multivariable linear regression were used to distinguish the significant clinical and demographic features and neurological systems associated with the change in expanded disability status scale (EDSS) between clinical assessments.

Results

Patients with treated RR-MS were recruited (n = 51, Saudi; n = 47, Canada) although the disease duration was longer in the Canadian cohort (5.6 ± 2.2 yr.) compared to the Saudi cohort (4.4 ± 1.4 yr.) (P < 0.05), annual relapse rate and EDSS change were higher in the Saudi cohort (P < 0.05). Infratentorial lesion-associated presentation differed (Canada, n = 23; Saudi, n = 13) among groups (P < 0.05). Spinal cord lesions on MRI were more frequently detected in Canadian (n = 23) compared to Saudi (n = 1) patients (P < 0.05). Patients within the Saudi cohort displayed a significantly greater change in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) between first and second assessments.

Conclusions

Despite differences in geographic location, ethnicity, and predominance of infratentorial lesions in the Canadian group, the RR-MS phenotypes were similar although the Saudi cohort displayed a more severe disease course.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-021-02317-2.

Genetic Alterations in Patients with Two Clinical Phenotypes of Multiple Sclerosis

The etiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) is still not known, but the interaction of genetic, immunological, and environmental factors seem to be involved. This study aimed to investigate genetic alterations and the vitamin D status in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and secondary progressive MS (SPMS). A total of 53 patients (29 RRMS; 24 SPMS) and 25 healthy subjects were recruited to evaluate the micronucleated cell (MNC) frequency and nuclear abnormalities in the buccal mucosa, gene expression profiling in mononuclear cells, and plasmatic vitamin D concentration in the blood. Results showed a higher frequency of cells with karyorrhexis (SPMS) and lower frequencies of nuclear pyknosis (RRMS and SPMS) and karyolysis (SPMS) in patients with MS. Significant increase in the frequency of MNC was detected in the buccal mucosa of RRMS and SPMS patients. HIF1A, IL13, IL18, MYC, and TNF were differentially expressed in MS patients, and APP was overexpressed in cells of RRMS compared to SPMS patients. No relationship was observed between vitamin D level and the differentially expressed genes. In conclusion, the cytogenetic alterations in the buccal mucosa can be important indicators of genetic instability and degenerative processes in patients with MS. Furthermore, our data introduced novel biomarkers associated with the molecular pathogenesis of MS.

Emotional outcomes in clinically isolated syndrome and early phase multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To study depression, anxiety, suicide risk, and emotional health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in people with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and in early phase multiple sclerosis (MS).

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted with inclusion criteria of observational studies on outcomes of depression, anxiety, suicide risk, and emotional HRQoL in CIS and within five years since diagnosis of MS. Studies were screened using the Preferred Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, and study quality was determined for included studies. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were performed if applicable.

RESULTS

Fifty-one studies were included in the systematic review. In early phase MS, meta-analyses of the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS) indicated prevalence levels of 17% (95% confidence interval (CI): 9 to 25%; p < .001) for depressive and 35% (95% CI: 28 to 41%; p < .001) for anxiety symptoms. Meta-regression analyses revealed an increase in mean HADS-D and HADS-A associated with larger sample size, and higher HADS-D mean with increased study quality. Similar depressive and anxiety symptoms were observed in CIS, and increased suicide risk and low emotional HRQoL was associated with depressive symptoms in early phase MS. The methodological quality of the studies was considered fair.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that mild-to-moderate symptoms of depression and anxiety might be prevalent in CIS and in early phase MS. Future research on both clinical populations are needed, especially longitudinal monitoring of emotional outcomes.

Impact of early diagnosis on clinical characteristics of an Italian sample of people with multiple sclerosis recruited online

BACKGROUND

In order to anticipate the diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis (MS), the diagnostic criteria had been reviewed several times in the last years.

OBJECTIVE

We wanted to understand whether earlier diagnoses of MS have impacted on therapeutic management of the disease.

METHODS

We designed a 22-item survey posted on SMsocialnetwork, a webplatform with a medical supervision, dedicated to Italian MS patients. We collected socio-demographic data, disease and treatment-related information of 1000 patients.

RESULTS

The median age at diagnosis significantly decreased over years. In the last decades the time delay between disease onset and diagnosis reduced, the disease phenotypes at diagnosis shifted from progressive form to relapsing ones and clinically isolated syndrome, the number of early treated patients increased over time.

CONCLUSION

We showed, verifying a large sample of patients in a reallife setting, that the improvement of the diagnostic process allowed the anticipation of MS diagnosis over years and had a huge impact in terms of treatment approach.

Signaling pathways and therapeutic perspectives related to environmental factors associated with multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated demyelinating disorder of unknown etiology. Both genetic-susceptibility and environment exposures, including vitamin D deficiency, Epstein-Barr viral and Herpesvirus (HHV-6) infections are strongly implicated in the activation of T cells and MS-pathogenesis. Despite precise knowledge of how these factors could be operating alone or in combination to facilitate and aggravate the disease progression, it is clear that prolonged induction of inflammatory molecules and recruitment of other immune cells by the activated T cells results in demyelination and axonal damage. It is imperative to understand the risk factors associated with MS progression and how these factors contribute to disease pathology. Understanding of the underlying mechanisms of what factors triggers activation of T cells to attack myelin antigen are important to strategize therapeutics and therapies against MS. Current review provides a detailed literature to understand the role of both pathogenic and non-pathogenic factors on the impact of MS.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of beta-interferon and glatiramer acetate for treating multiple sclerosis: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

At the time of publication of the most recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance [technology appraisal (TA) 32] in 2002 on beta-interferon (IFN-β) and glatiramer acetate (GA) for multiple sclerosis, there was insufficient evidence of their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake (1) systematic reviews of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IFN-β and GA in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) compared with best supportive care (BSC) and each other, investigating annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months and 6 months and (2) cost-effectiveness assessments of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for CIS and RRMS compared with BSC and each other.

REVIEW METHODS

Searches were undertaken in January and February 2016 in databases including The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and the Science Citation Index. We limited some database searches to specific start dates based on previous, relevant systematic reviews. Two reviewers screened titles and abstracts with recourse to a third when needed. The Cochrane tool and the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) and Philips checklists were used for appraisal. Narrative synthesis and, when possible, random-effects meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were performed. Cost-effectiveness analysis used published literature, findings from the Department of Health's risk-sharing scheme (RSS) and expert opinion. A de novo economic model was built for CIS. The base case used updated RSS data, a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective, a 50-year time horizon, 2014/15 prices and a discount rate of 3.5%. Outcomes are reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We undertook probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 6420 publications were identified, of which 63 relating to 35 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included. In total, 86% had a high risk of bias. There was very little difference between drugs in reducing moderate or severe relapse rates in RRMS. All were beneficial compared with BSC, giving a pooled rate ratio of 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.76] for ARR and a hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.87) for time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months. NMA suggested that 20 mg of GA given subcutaneously had the highest probability of being the best at reducing ARR. Three separate cost-effectiveness searches identified > 2500 publications, with 26 included studies informing the narrative synthesis and model inputs. In the base case using a modified RSS the mean incremental cost was £31,900 for pooled DMTs compared with BSC and the mean incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 0.943, giving an ICER of £33,800 per QALY gained for people with RRMS. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis the ICER was £34,000 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analysis, using the assessment group inputs gave an ICER of £12,800 per QALY gained for pooled DMTs compared with BSC. Pegylated IFN-β-1 (125 µg) was the most cost-effective option of the individual DMTs compared with BSC (ICER £7000 per QALY gained); GA (20 mg) was the most cost-effective treatment for CIS (ICER £16,500 per QALY gained).

LIMITATIONS

Although we built a de novo model for CIS that incorporated evidence from our systematic review of clinical effectiveness, our findings relied on a population diagnosed with CIS before implementation of the revised 2010 McDonald criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

DMTs were clinically effective for RRMS and CIS but cost-effective only for CIS. Both RCT evidence and RSS data are at high risk of bias. Research priorities include comparative studies with longer follow-up and systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016043278.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A practical approach to the diagnosis of spinal cord lesions

Every neurologist will be familiar with the patient with atypical spinal cord disease and the challenges of taking the diagnosis forward. This is predominantly because of the limited range of possible clinical and investigation findings making most individual features non-specific. The difficulty in obtaining a tissue diagnosis further contributes and patients are often treated empirically based on local prevalence and potential for reversibility. This article focuses on improving the diagnosis of adult non-traumatic, non-compressive spinal cord disorders. It is structured to start with the clinical presentation in order to be of practical use to the clinician. We aim, by combining the onset phenotype with the subsequent course, along with imaging and laboratory features, to improve the diagnostic process.

Gene Therapy-Induced Antigen-Specific Tregs Inhibit Neuro-inflammation and Reverse Disease in a Mouse Model of Multiple Sclerosis

The devastating neurodegenerative disease multiple sclerosis (MS) could substantially benefit from an adeno-associated virus (AAV) immunotherapy designed to restore a robust and durable antigen-specific tolerance. However, developing a sufficiently potent and lasting immune-regulatory therapy that can intervene in ongoing disease is a major challenge and has thus been elusive. We addressed this problem by developing a highly effective and robust tolerance-inducing in vivo gene therapy. Using a pre-clinical animal model, we designed a liver-targeting gene transfer vector that expresses full-length myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) in hepatocytes. We show that by harnessing the tolerogenic nature of the liver, this powerful gene immunotherapy restores immune tolerance by inducing functional MOG-specific regulatory T cells (Tregs) in vivo, independent of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) restrictions. We demonstrate that mice treated prophylactically are protected from developing disease and neurological deficits. More importantly, we demonstrate that when given to mice with preexisting disease, ranging from mild neurological deficits to severe paralysis, the gene immunotherapy abrogated CNS inflammation and significantly reversed clinical symptoms of disease. This specialized approach for inducing antigen-specific immune tolerance has significant therapeutic potential for treating MS and other autoimmune disorders.

Teriflunomide slows BVL in relapsing MS: A reanalysis of the TEMSO MRI data set using SIENA

Objective:

To assess, using structural image evaluation using normalization of atrophy (SIENA), the effect of teriflunomide, a once-daily oral immunomodulator, on brain volume loss (BVL) in patients with relapsing forms of MS enrolled in the phase 3 TEMSO study.

Methods:

TEMSO MR scans were analyzed (study personnel masked to treatment allocation) using SIENA to assess brain volume changes between baseline and years 1 and 2 in patients treated with placebo or teriflunomide. Treatment group comparisons were made via rank analysis of covariance.

Results:

Data from 969 patient MRI visits were included in this analysis: 808 patients had baseline and year 1 MRI; 709 patients had baseline and year 2 MRI. Median percentage BVL from baseline to year 1 and year 2 for placebo was 0.61% and 1.29%, respectively, and for teriflunomide 14 mg, 0.39% and 0.90%, respectively. BVL was lower for teriflunomide 14 mg vs placebo at year 1 (36.9% relative reduction, p = 0.0001) and year 2 (30.6% relative reduction, p = 0.0001). Teriflunomide 7 mg was also associated with significant reduction in BVL vs placebo over the 2-year study. The significant effects of teriflunomide 14 mg on BVL were observed in both patients with and without on-study disability worsening.

Conclusions:

The significant reduction of BVL vs placebo over 2 years achieved with teriflunomide is consistent with its effects on delaying disability worsening and suggests a neuroprotective potential.

Classification of evidence:

Class II evidence shows that teriflunomide treatment significantly reduces BVL over 2 years vs placebo.

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier:

NCT00134563.

Dynamic regulation of serum aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists in MS

Objective:

Several factors influence the clinical course of autoimmune inflammatory diseases such as MS and inflammatory bowel disease. Only recently, the complex interaction between the gut microbiome, dietary factors, and metabolism has started to be appreciated with regard to its potential to modulate acute and chronic inflammation. One of the molecular sensors that mediates the effects of these environmental signals on the immune response is the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), a ligand-activated transcription factor with key functions in immune cells.

Methods:

In this study, we analyzed the levels of AHR agonists in serum samples from patients with MS and healthy controls in a case-control study.

Results:

We detected a global decrease of circulating AHR agonists in relapsing-remitting MS patients as compared to controls. However, during acute CNS inflammation in clinically isolated syndrome or active MS, we measured increased AHR agonistic activity. Moreover, AHR ligand levels in patients with benign MS with relatively mild clinical impairment despite longstanding disease were unaltered as compared to healthy controls.

Conclusions:

Collectively, these data suggest that AHR agonists in serum are dynamically modulated during the course of MS. These findings may guide the development of biomarkers to monitor disease activity as well as the design of novel therapeutic interventions for MS.

An adverse lipid profile and increased levels of adiposity significantly predict clinical course after a first demyelinating event

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prospective associations between adiposity and lipid-related variables and conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS), time to subsequent relapse and progression in disability.

METHODS

A cohort of 279 participants with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination was prospectively followed to 5-year review. Height, weight, waist and hip circumference were measured, and serum samples taken for measurement of lipids and apolipoproteins. Survival analysis was used for conversion to MS and time to relapse, and linear regression for annualised change in disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale).

RESULTS

Higher body mass index (BMI; adjusted HR (aHR): 1.22 (1.04 to 1.44) per 5 kg/m² increase), hip circumference (aHR: 1.32 (1.12 to 1.56) per 10 cm increase) and triglyceride levels (aHR: 1.20 (1.03 to 1.40) per unit increase) were associated with increased risk of subsequent relapse, while adiposity and lipid-related measures were not associated with conversion to MS. In addition, higher BMI (β: 0.04 (0.01 to 0.07) per 5 kg/m² increase), hip circumference (β: 0.04 (0.02 to 0.08) per 10 cm increase), waist circumference (β: 0.04 (0.02 to 0.07) per 10 cm increase), total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL ratio; β: 0.05 (0.001 to 0.10) and non-HDL; β: 0.04 (0.001 to 0.08) at study entry) were associated with a higher subsequent annual change in disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of adiposity, non-HDL and TC/HDL ratio were prospectively associated with a higher rate of disability progression, and higher adiposity and triglycerides were associated with relapse but not with conversion to MS. Improving the lipid profile and losing weight into the healthy range could reduce the accumulation of disability.

Quantifying risk of early relapse in patients with first demyelinating events: Prediction in clinical practice

Background:

Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs).

Objective:

To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion.

Methods:

Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices.

Results:

A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities.

Conclusion:

This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion.