Identification of hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism at high risk for death: external validation of different models

BACKGROUND

The optimal strategy for identification of hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) at risk for death and clinical deterioration remains undefined.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the performances of currently available models/scores for identifying hemodynamically stable patients with acute, symptomatic PE at risk of death and clinical deterioration.

METHODS

This was a prospective multicenter cohort study including patients with acute PE (NCT03631810). Primary study outcome was in-hospital death within 30 days or clinical deterioration. Other outcomes were in-hospital death, death, and PE-related death, all at 30 days. We calculated positive and negative predictive values, c-statistics of European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-2014, ESC-2019, Pulmonary Embolism Thrombolysis (PEITHO), Bova, Thrombo-embolism lactate outcome study (TELOS), fatty acid binding protein, syncope and tachicardia (FAST), and National Early Warning Scale 2 (NEWS2) for the study outcomes.

RESULTS

In 5036 hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE, positive predictive values for the evaluated models/scores were all below 10%, except for TELOS and NEWS2; negative predictive values were above 98% for all the models/scores, except for FAST and NEWS2. ESC-2014 and TELOS had good performances for in-hospital death or clinical deterioration (c-statistic of 0.700 and 0.722, respectively), in-hospital death (c-statistic of 0.713 and 0.723, respectively), and PE-related death (c-statistic of 0.712 and 0.777, respectively); PEITHO, Bova, and NEWS2 also had good performances for PE-related death (c-statistic of 0.738, 0.741, and 0.742, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE, the accuracy for identification of hemodynamically stable patients at risk for death and clinical deterioration varies across the available models/scores; TELOS seems to have the best performance. These data can inform management studies and clinical practice.

Short- and Long-Term Prognosis in Hemodynamically Stable Pulmonary Embolism With Unresectable or Metastatic Malignancies: The Role of Performance Status

BACKGROUND

The simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) has limitations when evaluating acute pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with concurrent malignancy. Despite its utility in predicting outcomes among cancer patients, the role of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) in acute PE remains underexplored. This study aims to assess the prognostic significance of ECOG PS ≥ 3 on short- and long-term mortality in acute PE with malignancy, correlating it with the sPESI.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively analyzed 44 hemodynamically stable acute PE patients with unresectable or metastatic malignancies ineligible for curative treatment at Kameda Medical Center, a tertiary medical facility in Japan, from April 1, 2019, to March 2, 2023. Of these patients, 16 (36.4%) had ECOG PS ≥ 3. No 30-day mortality occurred in patients with ECOG PS ≤ 2, compared to 18.8% in those with ECOG PS ≥ 3 (p = 0.04). Groups were similar in the sPESI scores, hospital-onset PE proportion, and initial treatments. Post PE diagnosis, 92.9% of ECOG PS ≤ 2 patients and 50% of ECOG PS ≥ 3 patients received chemotherapy (p = 0.002). Cox regression analysis revealed ECOG PS ≥ 3 was independently associated with increased overall survival hazard (adjusted HR = 4.0; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

ECOG PS ≥ 3 suggests a poorer short-term prognosis and independently predicts a worse long-term prognosis in hemodynamically stable acute PE patients with advanced malignancies.

Oxygenation index and NT-proBNP as predictors of pulmonary hypertension and ventilation/perfusion mismatch in acute pulmonary embolism

Introduction

The magnitude of pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) and the extent of ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) mismatch are essential for assessing the prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism (APE). We aimed to develop a model for predicting the status of the pulmonary circulation and arterial gas exchange functions using serum levels of cardiac biomarkers and arterial oxygenation index (OI) values.

Materials and methods

This single-center, retrospective observational cohort study included 224 patients with APE. Multivariate linear regression and Poisson regression were used to test the statistical association between cardiac biomarkers, OI, PAP, and V/Q mismatch. Diagnostic efficiency was calculated from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

Serum levels of troponin I (TNI), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and arterial OI magnitude significantly correlated with PAP and V/Q mismatches (P < 0.05). Multivariate linear regression showed that NT-proBNP serum levels (β = 0.002, P < 0.001) and OI values (β = -0.022, P = 0.001) significantly influenced PAP. Arterial OI (β = -0.039, P < 0.001) had a significant influence on the percentage of pulmonary vascular obstruction (PVO) as determined by perfusion scanning. Poisson regression showed that OI (odds ratio: 0.995, p < 0.001) was a predictor of the number of lung segments with V/Q mismatches. ROC area under the curve (AUC) values of NT-proBNP and OI predicting pulmonary hypertension were 0.716 and 0.730, respectively, and for V/Q mismatch scanning, the results were 0.601 and 0.634, respectively.

Conclusion

Arterial OI and serum levels of cardiac biomarkers may be used as indicators of pulmonary hypertension and V/Q mismatch.

Clinical prediction models in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: A multicenter cohort study

Background

Clinical spectrum of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) ranges from asymptomatic infection to severe respiratory failure that may result in death. We aimed at validating and potentially improve existing clinical models to predict prognosis in hospitalized patients with acute COVID-19.

Methods

Consecutive patients with acute confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized at 5 Italian non-intensive care unit centers during the 2020 outbreak were included in the study. Twelve validated prognostic scores for pneumonia and/or sepsis and specific COVID-19 scores were calculated for each study patient and their accuracy was compared in predicting in-hospital death at 30 days and the composite of death and orotracheal intubation.

Results

During hospital stay, 302 of 1044 included patients presented critical illness (28.9%), and 226 died (21.6%). Nine out of 34 items included in different prognostic scores were independent predictors of all-cause-death. The discrimination was acceptable for the majority of scores (APACHE II, COVID-GRAM, REMS, CURB-65, NEWS II, ROX-index, 4C, SOFA) to predict in-hospital death at 30 days and poor for the rest. A high negative predictive value was observed for REMS (100.0%) and 4C (98.7%) scores; the positive predictive value was poor overall, ROX-index having the best value (75.0%).

Conclusions

Despite the growing interest in prognostic models, their performance in patients with COVID-19 is modest. The 4C, REMS and ROX-index may have a role to select high and low risk patients at admission. However, simple predictors as age and PaO2/FiO2 ratio can also be useful as standalone predictors to inform decision making.

Risk stratification to optimize the management of acute pulmonary embolism

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life-threatening disease. Risk stratification in patients with acute PE can guide clinical decisions. Clinical assessment, including hemodynamics, respiratory parameters, patient history, and right ventricle evaluation, has a pivotal role in this scope.

AREAS COVERED

This review aims to describe: i) the role of individual tools for prognostic stratification, from simple clinical parameters to the models suggested by international guidelines; ii) the implications of risk stratification in terms of patient disposition and treatment. The bleeding risk assessment in acute PE was also reviewed. The literature search was performed in PubMed and Embase to address these issues.

EXPERT OPINION

Prognostic assessment is essential to proceed with life-saving treatments in hemodynamically unstable patients and consider home treatment or short hospital stay in patients at low risk for death. In hemodynamically stable patients, risk stratification allows the implementation of personalized treatment pathways to reduce the risk of death, early PE recurrence, and bleeding. With the aim of optimizing healthcare resources, risk stratification may suggest appropriate patient disposition.

Arterial partial pressure of oxygen and diffusion function as prognostic biomarkers for acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification for acute pulmonary embolism (PE) ignores the roles of respiratory function and gas exchange. We aimed to identify the role of arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PO2) and diffusion function as prognostic biomarkers.

METHODS

We collected the data from hospitalised patients with acute PE. We used Spearman's correlation coefficient and Cox regression analysis to explore the clinical and prognostic values of PO2 and predicted percentage diffusing lung capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO%pred) to predict the 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

We included 309 patients (mean age: 67.93 ± 13.31 years); 46.6% were men, and 12.62% were haemodynamically unstable. The 30-day all-cause mortality rates in the high-, intermediate high-, intermediate low-, and low-risk groups were 7.7%, 4.7%, 2.9%, and 0.0%, respectively (P < 0.05). PO2 (P = 0.012) and DLCO%pred (P = 0.036) were significantly different between the four risk groups. There were strong correlations between PO2, DLCO%pred, PO2*DLCO%pred, and other markers (P < 0.05), especially troponin I, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and systolic pulmonary artery pressure. PO2 and PO2*DLCO%pred were prognostic factors for death in haemodynamically stable patients (hazard ratio [HR] 0.618, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.389-0.980, P = 0.041, and HR 0.501, 95% CI 0.26-0.96, P = 0.036, respectively). A lower PO2 (<8 kPa) was associated with a higher risk of mortality in all patients and in haemodynamically stable ones (HR 9.462, 95% CI 2.365-37.860, P = 0.001, and HR 6.597, 95% CI 1.102-39.495, P = 0.039, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

PO2, PO2*DLCO%pred, and PO2 < 8 kPa were predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality in all patients and haemodynamically stable ones.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ChiCTR2000030448.

Rapid prediction of deterioration risk among non-high-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism at admission: An imaging tool

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography as the first-line diagnosis tool of acute pulmonary embolism (PE), might improve this discriminatory power. We aimed to developed a simply tool combining multi-CT parameters to complete individualized risk assessment of deterioration in non-high-risk patients with acute PE at admission.

METHOD

Consecutive non-high-risk patients with acute PE who were treated in a Chinese center during 2010-2021, were collected.Prognosis-related CT parameters were reviewed. Deterioration was defined as any adverse event within 30 day after admission. Eligible patients were randomized into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, CT parameters were screened for importance using classification tree methodology and enrolled variables was partitioned via curve-fitting and dose-response analysis. A nomogram was developed and the predictive power in both cohorts was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULT

A total of 1001 patients were included. The preliminary analyses revealed that deterioration risk was related to the right-to-left ventricular diameter ratio at 4-chamber view, pulmonary vein filling abnormality. After a curve-fitting to deterioration risk, these parameters were partitioned and used to develop a nomogram, which had AUROC values of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.96) in the derivation cohort and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.81-0.97) in the validation cohort. A web-based version of the radiomics scoring tool was published online for use in clinical practice (https://acutepeprediction.shinyapps.io/Radiomics_Predictive_Tool/).

CONCLUSION

This simply tool can complete rapid estimation of deterioration risk among non-high-risk acute PE patients at admission.

Developing a scoring tool to estimate the risk of deterioration for normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism on admission

Background

It is important to identify deterioration in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting deterioration among normotensive patients with acute PE on admission.

Methods

Clinical, laboratory, and computed tomography parameters were retrospectively collected for normotensive patients with acute PE who were treated at a Chinese center from January 2011 to May 2020 on admission into the hospital. The endpoint of the deterioration was any adverse outcome within 30 days. Eligible patients were randomized 2:1 to derivation and validation cohorts, and a nomogram was developed and validated by the aforementioned cohorts, respectively. The areas under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A risk-scoring tool for predicting deterioration was applied as a web-based calculator.

Results

The 845 eligible patients (420 men, 425 women) had an average age of 60.05 ± 15.43 years. Adverse outcomes were identified for 81 patients (9.6%). The nomogram for adverse outcomes included heart rate, systolic pressure, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, and ventricle/atrial diameter ratios at 4-chamber view, which provided AUC values of 0.925 in the derivation cohort (95% CI 0.900–0.946, p < 0.001) and 0.900 in the validation cohort (95% CI 0.883–0.948, p < 0.001). A risk-scoring tool was published as a web-based calculator (https://gaoyzcmu.shinyapps.io/APE9AD/).

Conclusions

We developed a web-based scoring tool that may help predict deterioration in normotensive patients with acute PE.