Prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma survival after radiofrequency ablation: A US population-based study

Can Machine Learning Predict Favorable Outcome After Radiofrequency Ablation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma?

PURPOSE

The standard practice for limited-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the resection or the use of local ablative techniques, such as radiofrequency ablation (RFA). The outcome after RFA depends on a complex interaction between the patient's general condition, hepatic function, and disease stage. In this study, we aimed to explore using a machine learning model to predict the response.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted for patients with RFA for a localized HCC between 2018 and 2022. The collected clinical, radiologic, and laboratory data were explored using Python and XGBoost. They were split into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). The primary end point of this study was to predict the probability of achieving favorable outcomes 12 months after RFA. Favorable outcomes were defined as the patient was alive and HCC was controlled.

RESULTS

One hundred and eleven patients were eligible for the study. Males were 78 (70.3%) with a median age of 57 (range of 43-81) years. Favorable outcome was seen in 62 (55.9%) of the patients. The 1-year survival rate and control rate were 94.6%, and 61.3%, respectively. The final model harbored an accuracy and an AUC of 90.6% and 0.95, respectively, for the training set, while they were 78.9% and 0.80, respectively, for the validation set.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning can be a predictive tool for the outcome after RFA in patients with HCC. Further validation by a larger study is necessary.

MRPL21 promotes HCC proliferation through TP53 mutation-induced apoptotic resistance

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The specific mechanisms underlying the inhibition of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) proliferation and metastasis by mitochondrial apoptosis are not yet fully understood. However, it plays a vital role in suppressing HCC's ability to proliferate and spread. The involvement of MRPL21, a member within the family of mitochondrial ribosomal proteins (MRPs), is well-documented in both cellular apoptosis and energy metabolism. This study aims to explore and unravel the underlying mechanisms through which MRPL21 contributes to mitochondrial apoptosis and resistance against apoptosis in HCC.

METHODS

To evaluate the level of MRPL21 expression at the gene and protein expression levels, analysis was performed on human liver samples and blood using techniques for quantification. A knockdown plasmid targeting MRPL21 was constructed to investigate its impact on the growth and apoptosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To evaluate the impact of MRPL21 knockdown on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cell proliferation and apoptosis, various assays were performed including CCK-8 assays, flow cytometry analysis, detection of reactive oxygen species (ROS), and assessment of mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP). Furthermore, the role of MRPL21 in TP53 mutation was examined using Nutlin-3.

RESULTS

In HCC tissues and blood samples, an upregulation of MRPL21 expression was observed when compared to samples obtained from healthy individuals, and it is correlated with a poor prognosis for HCC. Silencing MRPL21 can effectively suppress Hep3B and HCCLM3 cells proliferation by modulating the mitochondrial membrane potential, it triggers the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), thereby leading to G0/G1 cell cycle arrest and initiation of early apoptosis. Furthermore, by inhibiting P53 activity, Nutlin-3 treatment can enhance MRPL21-deficiency-mediated apoptosis in Hep3B and HCCLM3 cells.

CONCLUSION

Through its influence on TP53 mutation, MRPL21 promotes HCC proliferation and progression while conferring resistance to apoptosis. These findings suggest that MRPL21 holds promise as a valuable biomarker for the treatment of HCC.

Predictors for Early Liver Cancer Survival After Ablation and Surgical Resection: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare Study

OBJECTIVE

To identify independent predictors of all-cause and cancer-specific mortality after ablation or surgical resection (SR) for small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), after adjusting for key confounders.

METHODS

Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare, HCCs less than 5 cm treated with ablation or SR in 2009 to 2016 (n = 956) were identified. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression models for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality were performed including demographics, clinical factors (tumor size, medical comorbidities, and liver disease factors), social determinants of health, and treatment characteristics. We also determined the most influential predictors of survival using a random forest analysis.

RESULTS

Larger tumor size (3-5 cm) is predictive of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, P = .002) and cancer-specific mortality (HR 1.59, P < .001). Furthermore, chronic kidney disease is predictive of all-cause mortality (HR 1.43, P = .013), though it is not predictive of cancer-specific death. Multiple liver disease factors are predictive of all-cause and cancer-specific mortality including portal hypertension and esophageal varices (HRs > 1, P < .05). Though Asian race is protective in univariate models, in fully adjusted, multivariable models, Asian race is not a significant protective factor. Likewise, other social determinants of health are not significantly predictive of all-cause or cancer-specific mortality. Finally, treatment with SR, in later procedure years or at high-volume centers, is protective for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. In machine learning models, year procedure was performed, ascites, portal hypertension, and treatment choice were the most influential factors.

DISCUSSION

Treatment characteristics, liver disease factors, and tumor size are more important predictors of all-cause and cancer-specific death than social determinants of health for small HCCs.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis if the HCC incidence rate is above 1.5 per 100 person-years (PY). However, the incidence threshold for surveillance in individuals who achieve a virologic cure is unknown. We estimated the HCC incidence rate above which routine HCC surveillance is cost-effective in this growing population of virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis.

METHODS

We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C who achieved virologic cure with oral direct-acting antivirals. We used published data on the natural history of hepatitis C, competing risk post virologic cure, HCC tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, contemporary HCC treatment options and associated costs, and utilities of different health states. We estimated the HCC incidence above which biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein would be cost-effective.

RESULTS

In virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, HCC surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.7 per 100 PY using $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay. At this HCC incidence, routine HCC surveillance would result in 2650 and 5700 additional life years per 100,000 cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis persons, respectively, compared with no surveillance. At $150,000 willingness-to-pay, surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.4 per 100 PY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the threshold mostly remained below 1.5 per 100 PY.

CONCLUSIONS

The contemporary HCC incidence threshold is much lower than the previous 1.5% incidence value used to guide HCC surveillance decisions. Updating clinical guidelines could improve the early diagnosis of HCC.

Interstitial Brachytherapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Analysis of Prognostic Factors for Overall Survival and Progression-Free Survival and Application of a Risk Stratification Model

INTRODUCTION

Interstitial brachytherapy (iBT) is an effective treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Identification of prognostic factors is pivotal for patient selection and treatment efficacy. This study aimed to assess the impact of low skeletal muscle mass (LSMM) on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of iBT in patients with HCC.

METHODS

For this single-center study, we retrospectively identified 77 patients with HCC who underwent iBT between 2011 and 2018. Follow-up visits were recorded until 2020. The psoas muscle area, psoas muscle index, psoas muscle density (MD), and the skeletal muscle gauge were assessed on the L3 level on pre-treatment cross-sectional CT scans.

RESULTS

Median OS was 37 months. 42 patients (54.5%) had LSMM. An AFP level of >400 ng/ml (hazard ratio [HR] 5.705, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.228-14.606, p = 0.001), BCLC stage (HR 3.230, 95% CI: 0.972-10.735, p = 0.026), and LSMM (HR 3.365, 95% CI: 1.490-7.596, p = 0.002) showed a relevant association with OS. Weighted hazard ratios were used to form a predictive risk stratification model with three groups: patients with low risk (median OS 62 months), intermediate risk (median OS 31 months), and high risk (median OS 9 months). The model showed a good prediction of 1-year mortality, with an AUC of 0.71. Higher MD was associated with better PFS (HR 0.920, 95% CI: 0.881-0.962, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In patients undergoing iBT for HCC, LSMM is associated with worse OS. A risk stratification model based on LSMM, AFP >400 ng/mL, and BCLC stage successfully predicted patient mortality. The model may support and enhance patient selection.

Effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs using multitarget blood test: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of ultrasound-based surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis is limited by suboptimal sensitivity for early tumor detection and poor adherence. Emerging blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative surveillance strategy. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT)-with and without improved adherence-against ultrasound-based HCC surveillance.

METHODS

We developed a Markov-based mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial in patients with compensated cirrhosis comparing potential surveillance strategies: biannual surveillance using ultrasound, ultrasound plus AFP, and mt-HBT with or without improved adherence (+10% increase). We used published data to inform underlying liver disease progression rates, HCC tumor growth patterns, performance characteristics of surveillance modalities, and efficacy of treatments. Primary outcomes of interest were the number of early-stage HCCs detected and life years gained.

RESULTS

Per 100,000 patients with cirrhosis, mt-HBT detected 1680 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound alone and 350 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 5720 and 1000 life years, respectively. mt-HBT with improved adherence detected 2200 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound and 880 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 8140 and 3420 life years, respectively. The number of screening tests needed to detect one HCC case was 139 with ultrasound, 122 with ultrasound + AFP, 119 with mt-HBT, and 124 with mt-HBT with improved adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

mt-HBT is a promising alternative to ultrasound-based HCC surveillance, particularly given anticipated improved adherence with blood-based biomarkers could increase HCC surveillance effectiveness.

Duration and cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in hepatitis C patients after viral eradication

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance.

RESULTS

In virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis.

LAY SUMMARY

Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

Expansion of Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma from Milan to UCSF in Australia and New Zealand and Justification for Metroticket 2.0

Background: Expansion in liver transplantation (LT) criteria for HCC from Milan to UCSF has not adversely impacted overall survival, prompting further expansion towards Metroticket 2.0 (MT2). In this study, we compared patient survival post-transplant before and after 2007 and long-term outcomes for LT within Milan versus UCSF criteria (to determine the true benefit of the expansion of criteria) and retrospectively validated the MT2 criteria. Methods: Retrospective analysis of ANZLITR (including all patients transplanted for HCC since July 1997). The entire cohort was divided based on criteria used at the time of listing, namely, Milan era (1997−2006) and the UCSF era (2007−July 2015). Results: The overall 5- and 10-year cumulative survival rates for the entire cohort of 691 patients were 78% and 69%, respectively. Patients transplanted in UCSF era had significantly higher 5- and 10-year survival rates than in the Milan era (80% vs. 73% and 72% vs. 65%, respectively; p = 0.016). In the UCSF era, the 5-year survival rate for patients transplanted within Milan criteria was significantly better than those transplanted outside Milan but within UCSF criteria (83% vs. 73%; p < 0.024). Patients transplanted within the MT2 criteria had a significantly better 5- and 10-year survival rate as compared to those outside the criteria (81% vs. 64% and 73% vs. 50%, respectively; p = 0.001). Conclusion: Overall survival following LT for HCC has significantly improved over time despite expanding criteria from Milan to UCSF. Patients fulfilling the MT2 criteria have a survival comparable to the UCSF cohort. Thus, expansion of criteria to MT2 is justifiable.

Patient stratification in hepatocellular carcinoma: impact on choice of therapy

INTRODUCTION

HCC comprises around 60 to 80% of all primary liver cancers and exhibits wide geographical variability. Appropriate treatment allocation needs to include both patient and tumor characteristics.

AREAS COVERED

Current HCC classification systems to guide therapy are either liver function-centric and evaluate physiologic liver function to guide therapy or prognostic stratification classification systems broadly based on tumor morphologic parameters, patient performance status, and liver reserve assessment. This review focuses on different classification systems for HCC, their strengths, and weaknesses as well as the use of artificial intelligence in improving prognostication in HCC.

EXPERT OPINION

Future HCC classification systems will need to incorporate clinic-pathologic data from a multitude of sources and emerging therapies to develop patient-specific treatment plans targeting a patient's unique tumor profile.

Computational intelligence identifies alkaline phosphatase (ALP), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and hemoglobin levels as most predictive survival factors for hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer kills approximately 800 thousand people annually worldwide, and its most common subtype is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which usually affects people with cirrhosis. Predicting survival of patients with HCC remains an important challenge, especially because technologies needed for this scope are not available in all hospitals. In this context, machine learning applied to medical records can be a fast, low-cost tool to predict survival and detect the most predictive features from health records. In this study, we analyzed medical data of 165 patients with HCC: we employed computational intelligence to predict their survival, and to detect the most relevant clinical factors able to discriminate survived from deceased cases. Afterwards, we compared our data mining results with those obtained through statistical tests and scientific literature findings. Our analysis revealed that blood levels of alkaline-phosphatase (ALP), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and hemoglobin are the most effective prognostic factors in this dataset. We found literature supporting association of these three factors with hepatoma, even though only AFP has been used in a prognostic index. Our results suggest that ALP and hemoglobin can be candidates for future HCC prognostic indexes, and that physicians could focus on ALP, AFP, and hemoglobin when studying HCC records.

Pulmonary metastases in newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma: a population-based retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major form of primary liver cancer with steadily increasing incidence for the decades, and has propensity to have extrahepatic metastases, especially pulmonary metastases (PM). This study aimed to investigate temporal incidence trends, treatment, and survival of patients with HCCPM.

METHODS

Patients with HCCPM were retrospectively reviewed from 2010 to 2016 in US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry (SEER).

RESULTS

2242 patients with HCCPM were identified. Overall HCCPM incidence did not change from 2010 to 2016, with an annual percent change (APC) of 0.87% (95% CI = -2.50%-4.35%, P = 0.542). Similar incidence trends patterns were found in subgroup analyses of sex, age, and race. 1-year observed survival for HCCPM was 10.8% (95%CI = 8.9%-12.8%) and relative survival was 11.0% (95%CI = 9.1%-13.1%). Better outcomes were noted among patients who underwent liver-directed surgery, those who treated with chemotherapy, and those who received radiation.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of HCCPM does not increase with the increasing incidence of HCC. Patients with HCCPM have a dismal prognosis with low survival rates. Liver-directed surgery, use of chemotherapy, and radiation may be associated with improved outcomes.

Natural disease progression and novel survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma with spinal metastases: a 10-year single-center study

BACKGROUND

Individual prediction of life expectancy in patients with spinal metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is key for optimal treatment selection, especially when identifying potential candidates for surgery. Most reported prognostic tools provide categorical predictions, and only a few include HCC-related factors. This study aimed to investigate the natural progression of the disease and develop a prognostic tool that is capable of providing individualized predictions.

METHODS

Patients with HCC-derived metastatic spinal disease were identified from a retrospective cohort of patients with spinal metastases who were diagnosed at Chiang Mai University Hospital between 2006 and 2015. Kaplain-Meier methods and log-rank tests were used to statistically evaluate potential factors. Significant predictors from the univariable analysis were included in the flexible parametric survival regression for the development of a prognostic prediction model.

RESULTS

Of the 1143 patients diagnosed with HCC, 69 (6%) had spinal metastases. The median survival time of patients with HCC after spinal metastases was 79 days. In the multivariable analysis, a total of 11 potential clinical predictors were included. After backward elimination, four final predictors remained: patients aged > 60 years, Karnofsky Performance Status, total bilirubin level, and multifocality of HCC. The model showed an acceptable discrimination at C-statistics 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.68-0.79) and fair calibration.

CONCLUSION

Four clinical parameters were used in the development of the individual survival prediction model for patients with HCC-derived spinal metastases of Chiang Mai University or HCC-SM CMU model. Prospective external validation studies in a larger population are required prior to the clinical implication of the model.

ITGBL1 promotes cell migration and invasion through stimulating the TGF-β signalling pathway in hepatocellular carcinoma

Objectives

Integrin beta‐like 1 (ITGBL1) is involved in the migration and invasion of several cancers; however, its roles in the development and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain largely unknown.

Materials and methods

Immunohistochemistry staining was used to investigate the expression pattern of ITGBL1 and its prognostic values in HCC patients. The transwell, wound‐healing assays, xenograft and orthotopic mouse models were employed to determine the effects of ITGBL1 on HCC cell migration and invasion in vitro and in vivo. The biological mechanisms involved in cell migration and invasion caused by ITGBL1 were determined with Western blotting and RT‐PCR methods.

Results

ITGBL1 expression was significantly increased in HCC tissues compared to adjacent normal tissues. Patients with higher ITGBL1 expression were associated with more reduced overall survival. ITGBL1 overexpression promoted migration and invasion in SMMC‐7721 and HepG2 cells in vitro and in vivo, whereas knockdown or knockout ITGBL1 in CSQT‐2 cells significantly reduced cell migration and invasion abilities. In SMMC‐7721 cells, ITGBL1 overexpression stimulated TGF‐β/Smads signalling pathway, along with the KRT17 and genes involved in the epithelial‐mesenchymal transition (EMT). In contrast, ITGBL1 knockout inhibited the TGF‐β/Smads signalling pathway in CSQT‐2 cells.

Conclusions

These findings suggested that ITGBL1 promoted migration and invasion in HCC cells by stimulating the TGF‐β/Smads signalling pathway. ITGBL1 could be a promising prognostic biomarker, as well as a potential therapeutic target in HCC.

Prognostic Nomogram for Hepatitis B Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization After Radical Resection

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to establish a reliable and effective nomogram for predicting prognosis of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A derivation cohort of 370 HCC patients treated with postoperative TACE in the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital from January 2009 to December 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed by Cox regression and independent prognostic factors for overall survival were determined to construct the nomogram. Concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and decision curve analysis were performed to evaluate the capability of the nomogram and the established nomogram was compared with TNM stage and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage to identify the superior model. The results were validated in a validation cohort of 123 HCC patients in the same center.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis indicated that γ-glutamyl transferase, α-fetoprotein, tumor number, tumor size, satellite lesions, microvascular invasion, and HBV-DNA were independent prognostic factors for overall survival in the derivation cohort, and all these factors were selected into the nomogram. The C-index was 0.755 for survival prediction of the nomogram, which was significantly higher than the TNM stage (0.636, P<0.001) and BCLC stage (0.594, P<0.001). A fair uniformity and a superior net benefit with wide range threshold probabilities were showed in the calibration curves and decision curve analysis. In the validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram (0.785) also had a higher predictive accuracy than TNM stage (0.744, P=0.019) and BCLC stage (0.616, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram with accurate and reasonable performance was proposed for predicting survival of HBV-related HCC with postoperative adjuvant TACE.

Long-term outcome of intraoperative radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma and its efficacy as a primary treatment

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

We conducted this study to identify long-term outcomes following intraoperative radiofrequency ablation (IO-RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to reveal independent prognostic factors for survival.

METHODS

From December 1998 to February 2019, 183 patients underwent IO-RFA for HCC. These patients were divided into two groups according to whether RFA was done as a first-line (1-RFA group, n=106) or secondary-line (2-RFA group, n=77) treatment. Furthermore, we compared the survival outcomes between the 1-RFA and 2-RFA groups.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in type of surgical approaches between the two groups (p=0.079). The number of tumors and largest tumor size were not significantly different between the two groups. Overall recurrence rate was 53%, and the 2-RFA group showed a higher recurrence rate (46.2% in 1-RFA group versus 62.3% in 2-RFA group; p=0.031). The 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates of all the patients were 75.2% and 27.9%, respectively. The OS and DFS rates were significantly higher in the 1-RFA group. The 5-year OS rates were 83.6% and 64.9% in the 1-RFA and 2-RFA groups, respectively (p=0.010), whereas the 5-year DFS rates were 32.2% and 21.6%, respectively (p=0.012). On multivariate analysis, HBV-LC, 2-RFA, recurrence, and postoperative complications were independent predictive factors for survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Therapeutic outcomes of IO-RFA were comparable to those of surgical resection. Additionally, 1-RFA might be an alternative treatment for naïve HCC in patients with uncompensated liver function and severe comorbidities.

Transient elastography predicts survival after radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma developing on cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The prognostic value of transient elastography (TE) in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated by percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is currently unknown.

METHOD(S)

We included patients with histologically proven cirrhosis and with a first diagnosis of HCC inside Milan criteria treated by percutaneous RFA, and with TE available the year before treatment with 10 shots and interquartile range/median < 30%. Association between variables and clinical events was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test and using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-nine patients were included, with a median age of 65 years; 77.4% were men. Causes of cirrhosis were alcohol consumption (48.1%), hepatitis C (43.7%), hepatitis B (12.7%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (32.3%). Median value of TE was 26 kPa (4-75 kPa). Overall survival at 1, 2, and 5 years was, respectively, 93%, 81%, and 44%; overall recurrence was 28%, 49%, and 80%. The TE value was not associated with tumor recurrence (0.13). In contrast, in univariate analysis, TE value, age, Child-Pugh B, and alkaline phosphatase were predictive factors in overall survival. In multivariate analysis, TE value (hazards ratio [HR] = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (IC): 1.01-1.04, 0.001), age (HR = 1.05, 95% IC: 1.03-1.08, P = 0.00006), and Child-Pugh B score (HR = 2.78, 95% IC: 1.27-6.08, P = 0.01) were independently associated with higher risk of death. A TE value ≥ 40 kPa was associated with shorter median overall survival (34 months) compared to a TE value < 40 kPa (59 months, P = 0.0008).

CONCLUSION(S)

Transient elastography (TE) predicts overall survival but not tumor recurrence in cirrhotic patients with HCC treated by RFA.

Demographic and facility volume related outcomes in radiofrequency ablation for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

To evaluate outcomes related to disparities in facility volume and patient demographics in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of patients with stage I/II HCC treated with RFA in the National Cancer Database. Independent contributors to overall survival were determined with Cox regression analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank analyses were used to estimate overall survival and compare survival curves. A propensity score matched cohort analysis was performed. P-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

In total, 2911 patients were included. Stage II disease (p-value = 0.006), increasing alpha fetoprotein (p-value = 0.007), and increasing bilirubin (p-value < 0.001) were associated with worse survival. Improved survival was seen in patients treated at high-volume centers (p-value = 0.004), which persisted following propensity score adjustment (p-value = 0.003). Asian race was associated with significantly improved survival (p-value < 0.001), while governmental insurance was associated with a significant decrease in survival (p-value < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Treatment at a high-volume center and Asian race were significantly associated with improved survival following RFA for early-stage HCC. Governmental insurance, increasing alpha fetoprotein, increasing bilirubin, and higher disease stage were significantly associated with worse survival.

Cadherin Related Family Member 2 Acts As A Tumor Suppressor By Inactivating AKT In Human Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Cadherin related family member 2 (CDHR2) belongs to the protocadherin family and is abundant in normal liver, kidney, and colon tissues, but weakly expressed in cancers arising from these tissues. In this study, we demonstrated that CDHR2 was highly expressed in para-cancer tissues of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but significantly downregulated or silenced in 85.7% (6/7) of HCC cell lines by both semi-quantitative PCR and western blot, and 79.1% (19/24) and 80.2% (89/111) of tumor tissues from patients with HCC by semi-quantitative PCR, and immunohistochemistry, respectively. Interestingly, CpG islands in the promoter of CDHR2 gene were hypermethylated in HCC cell lines and tissues compared with the para-cancer tissues by methylation-specific PCR analysis, leading to transcriptional repression and silencing of CDHR2 in HCC. In addition, CDHR2 overexpression by lentiviral vectors had suppressive effects on HCC cell growth and proliferation, as evidenced by prolonged cell doubling time and reduced colony-forming ability in vitro, as well as by decreased tumorigenicity in vivo. Mechanistically, CDHR2 overexpression resulted in AKT dephosphorylation along with downregulation of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX2), a downstream target of AKT. This effect was reversed by myristoylated AKT, a constitutively active form of AKT, suggesting an involvement of CDHR2-AKT-COX2 axis in the suppression of HCC growth. Taken together, our study identified CDHR2 as a novel tumor suppressor in HCC and provided a new therapeutic target for HCC.

A Nomogram Predicting Extrahepatic Metastases for Patients with Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization after Hepatectomy

Background: Prognosis remains poor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with extrahepatic metastases (EHMs). This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict EHMs in HCC patients who underwent adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) following hepatectomy.

Methods: Data of 578 HCC patients who underwent TACE after hepatectomy at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital was retrospectively reviewed. Cox regression analyses was used to select variables to construct the nomogram. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the model were performed using concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and the area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results: Postoperative EHMs were detected in 89 and 31 patients in the training cohort (n = 453) and validation cohort (n = 125), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size (HR, 1.099; 95% CI, 1.049-1.152), coarse beam type of tumor histopathological structure (HR, 2.382; 95% CI, 1.030-5.512), presence of satellite nodules (HR, 1.936; 95% CI, 1.156-3.244) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR, 1.399; 95% CI, 1.098-1.783) were independent risk factors for EHMs (all p < 0.05). The nomogram incorporated these factors achieved good agreement between prediction and actual observation with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.78) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.79) in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. In addition, patients who had a nomogram score > 17 were considered to have higher risk for EHMs compared with those scored ≤ 12. Furthermore, the time-dependent area under the ROC curve indicated comparative stability and adequate discriminative ability of the model.

Conclusions: This novel nomogram can identify those with high risk of EHMs after adjuvant TACE following hepatectomy. The validation cohort showed a good performance, suggesting it could benefit surgeons on decision-making.

Tumor Location Influences Oncologic Outcomes of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Undergoing Radiofrequency Ablation

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is recommended as a first-line therapy for small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Tumor location is a potential factor influencing the procedure of RFA. To compare oncologic outcomes of RFA for different tumor locations, this retrospective study enrolled 194 patients with small HCC who had undertaken RFA. The HCC nodules were classified as peri-hepatic-vein (pHV) or non-pHV, peri-portal-vein (pPV) or non-pPV, and subcapsular or non-subcapsular HCC. The regional recurrence-free survival (rRFS), overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (recurrence in any location, RFS) and distant recurrence-free survival (dRFS) were compared. Operation failures were recorded in five pPV HCC patients, which was more frequent than in non-pPV HCC patients (p = 0.041). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year rRFS was 68.7%, 53.7%, and 53.7% for pHV patients and 85.1%, 76.1%, and 71.9% for non-pHV patients, respectively (p = 0.012). After propensity score matching, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year rRFS was still worse than that of non-pHV patients (p = 0.013). The OS, RFS, and dRFS were not significantly different between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A pHV location was a risk factor for the regional recurrence after RFA in small HCC patients. The tumor location may not influence OS, RFS, and dRFS. Additionally, a pPV location was a potential high-risk factor for incomplete ablation.

Radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-analysis of overall survival and recurrence-free survival

Background and aims

So far, no randomized trial or meta-analysis has been conducted on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) factors in patients treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) alone. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate prognostic factors of OS and RFS in patients treated with RFA.

Methods

A primary analysis was planned to evaluate the clinical prognostic factor of OS. RFS was the secondary aim. Thirty-four studies published from 2003 to 2017 were analyzed. They included 11,216 hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

Results

The results showed that Child-Pugh B vs Child-Pugh A (HR =2.32; 95% CI: 2.201-2.69; P<0.0001) and albumin-bilirubin score 1 vs 0 (HR =2.69; 95% CI: 2.10-3.44; P<0.0001) were predictive of poor OS. Tumor size as a continuous variable was not predictive of OS, although it was predictive of OS when we considered the size as a cutoff value (.2 cm vs <2 cm: HR =1.41; 95% CI: 1.23-1.61; P<0.0001; >3 cm vs <3 cm: HR =1.43; 95% CI: 1.17-1.74; P<0.0001) and in presence of >1 nodule (HR =1.59; 95% CI: 1.46-1.74; P<0.0001). Alpha-fetoprotein >20 ng/mL (HR =1.46; 95% CI: 1.25-1.70; P<0.0001) was the only predictive factor of poor prognosis.

Conclusion

Our meta-analysis highlighted that the maximum benefit of RFA in terms of OS and RFS is reached in the presence of Child-Pugh A, albumin-bilirubin score 1, single-nodule tumor sized <2 cm, and alpha-fetoprotein <20 ng/mL.

Novel tumor suppressor SPRYD4 inhibits tumor progression in hepatocellular carcinoma by inducing apoptotic cell death

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-associated deaths worldwide. Although recent studies have proposed different biomarkers for HCC progression and therapy resistance, a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying HCC progression and recurrence, as well as the identification of molecular markers with a higher diagnostic accuracy, are necessary for the development of more effective clinical management strategies. Here, we aimed to identify novel players in HCC progression.

METHODS

SPRYD4 mRNA and protein expression analyses were carried out on a normal liver-derived cell line (HL-7702) and four HCC-derived cell lines (HepG2, SMMC7721, Huh-7, BEL-7402) using qRT-PCR and Western blotting, respectively. Cell proliferation Cell Counting Kit-8 (CCK-8) assays, protein expression analyses for apoptosis markers using Western blotting, and Caspase-Glo 3/7 apoptosis assays were carried out on the four HCC-derived cell lines. Expression comparison, functional annotation, gene set enrichment, correlation and survival analyses were carried out on patient data retrieved from the NCBI Gene module, the NCBI GEO database and the TCGA database.

RESULTS

Through a meta-analysis we found that the expression of SPRYD4 was downregulated in primary HCC tissues compared to non-tumor tissues. We also found that the expression of SPRYD4 was downregulated in HCC-derived cells compared to normal liver-derived cells. Subsequently, we found that the expression of SPRYD4 was inversely correlated with a gene signature associated with HCC cell proliferation. Exogenous SPRYD4 expression was found to inhibit HCC cell proliferation by inducing apoptotic cell death. We also found that SPRYD4 expression was associated with a good prognosis and that its expression became downregulated when HCCs progressed towards more aggressive stages and higher grades. Finally, we found that SPRYD4 expression may serve as a biomarker for a good overall and relapse-free survival in HCC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that a decreased SPRYD4 expression may serve as an independent predictor for a poor prognosis in patients with HCC and that increased SPRYD4 expression may reduce HCC growth and progression through the induction of apoptotic cell death, thereby providing a potential therapeutic target.

Liver-enriched Genes are Associated with the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Tissue-enriched genes are highly expressed in one particular tissue type and represent distinct physiological processes. The dynamic profile of tissue-enriched genes during tumorigenesis and progression remains largely unstudied. Here, we identified tissue-enriched genes from 12 tissue types based on RNA sequencing data from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), and found that the liver had the largest number of such genes among the 12 tissue types. The characteristics of liver-enriched genes were further investigated. Most liver-enriched genes were downregulated and metabolism-related genes, which were associated with pathological stage and dedifferentiation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hypermethylation might be a mechanism underlying the downregulation of liver-enriched genes. We constructed a liver-enriched gene set and demonstrated that it is associated with the prognosis of the patients with HCC both in the TCGA cohort and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets. Moreover, we discovered that the degree of the dissimilarity between tumors and normal tissues was correlated with the prognosis of patients with HCC and the biological behaviours of the tumors. These results will help identify prognostic biomarkers of patients with HCC, and enhance our understanding of the molecular mechanisms of hepatocarcinogenesis and progression.

Comparison of repeated surgical resection and radiofrequency ablation for small recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after primary resection

There is controversy concerning whether radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or surgical resection (SR) is a better treatment option for recurrent HCC after resection. In Kaohsiung Veteran General Hospital, from January 2002 to September 2014, a total of 100 consecutive patients who developed recurrent HCCs with a tumor size ≦ 3 cm and tumor numbers ≦ 3 after surgical resection were enrolled. Among these patients, 57 patients received RFA and 43 patients underwent repeated SR. Baseline characteristics at the time of recurrence after hepatic resection and clinical outcomes following treatment of recurrent HCC were compared between the two groups. The baseline data of initial HCC and the first recurrence of HCC were comparable in both groups. The 1-, 3-, 5-year overall survival rates following treatment of the first recurrence of HCC were 97.6%, 82.7%, 56.4% in the repeated SR group and 98.2%, 77.2%, 52.6% in the RFA group (p = 0.69). The 1-, 3-, 5-year disease-free survival rates were 57.0%, 32.1%, 28.6% in the repeated SR group and 60.8%, 26.6%, 16.6% in the RFA group ((p = 0.89). There was a trend whereby patients who underwent repeated SR had more procedure-related morbidity than patients who underwent RFA (16% vs. 7%, p = 0.14). The median total hospital days were longer in the repeated SR group than that in the RFA group (13 vs. 5 days, p < 0.05). In the small recurrent HCCs after SR, RFA achieved similar overall survival and disease-free survival than those with repeated SR as well as having a shorter hospital stay.

Complete genome sequencing and clinical analysis of intrahepatic hepatitis B virus cccDNA from HCC

BACKGROUND

More than half of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) are etiologically attributed to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, but it remains unclear whether HBV mutations are virological factors that contribute to formation of HCC or instead reflect accumulation during the progression of HBV-related disease.

METHODS

Rolling-cycle amplification and PCR sequencing were used to characterize covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) mutations in tumor tissues. Paired non-tumor tissues were used as controls.

RESULTS

High frequencies of C1653T, T1753V, and A1762T/G1764A cccDNA mutations were observed in both tumor and non-tumor tissues. T1719G, C1329A, and T3098C mutations were related to the overall survival of HCC patients. Patients with G1719 tended to be in the high Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage and had lower levels of total DNA and cccDNA per cell than patients with T1719. Additionally, in vitro analysis revealed that T1719G mutation reduced viral replication efficacy. Finally, significantly higher levels of preoperative alpha-fetoprotein were observed in patients harboring the G1078T, C1653T, G1727A, C1913A, T1978C, or C3116T mutations at the cccDNA level.

CONCLUSIONS

We speculated that HBV cccDNA mutations accumulated over the course of HBV-related disease development, and that some key mutations had prognostic value for patients with HBV-related HCC.

Prognostic Biomarker Identification Through Integrating the Gene Signatures of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Properties

Many molecular classification and prognostic gene signatures for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients have been established based on genome-wide gene expression profiling; however, their generalizability is unclear. Herein, we systematically assessed the prognostic effects of these gene signatures and identified valuable prognostic biomarkers by integrating these gene signatures. With two independent HCC datasets (GSE14520, N = 242 and GSE54236, N = 78), 30 published gene signatures were evaluated, and 11 were significantly associated with the overall survival (OS) of postoperative HCC patients in both datasets. The random survival forest models suggested that the gene signatures were superior to clinical characteristics for predicting the prognosis of the patients. Based on the 11 gene signatures, a functional protein-protein interaction (PPI) network with 1406 nodes and 10,135 edges was established. With tissue microarrays of HCC patients (N = 60), we determined the prognostic values of the core genes in the network and found that RAD21, CDK1, and HDAC2 expression levels were negatively associated with OS for HCC patients. The multivariate Cox regression analyses suggested that CDK1 was an independent prognostic factor, which was validated in an independent case cohort (N = 78). In cellular models, inhibition of CDK1 by siRNA or a specific inhibitor, RO-3306, reduced cellular proliferation and viability for HCC cells. These results suggest that the prognostic predictive capacities of these gene signatures are reproducible and that CDK1 is a potential prognostic biomarker or therapeutic target for HCC patients.

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Eleven gene signatures have promising values for the OS prediction of HCC patients who undergo the surgical treatments.

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Prediction results for the 11 gene signatures were in moderate concordance, and genes included were functionally linked.

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CDK1 is an independent prognostic biomarker and a potential therapeutic target for HCC patients.

Various gene signatures for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients have been reported; however, their generalizability is unclear. Using two HCC patient datasets, we assessed the prognostic values of these gene signatures and identified 11 gene signatures that were associated with overall survival for postoperative HCC patients in both cohorts. Genes derived from these signatures formed a functional protein-protein interaction network with 1,406 nodes and 10,135 edges, and the expression levels of three core genes, RAD21, CDK1, and HDAC2, in the network were negatively associated with the overall survival of HCC patients. Further studies suggested that CDK1 is an independent prognostic factor and that it is a potential therapeutic target for HCC patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma biology predicts survival outcome after liver transplantation in the USA

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinicopathologic prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent liver transplantation (LT) stratified by tumor size.

METHODS

From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries (2004-2012), we retrieved data of 570 patients who underwent LT for a solitary primary HCC lesion ≤5 cm. A two multivariable Cox models were constructed to identify prognostic factors of CSS in a two different tumor sizes (2 cm cutoff).

RESULTS

Out of 570 HCC patients (median age 57 years), 16% had microvascular invasion (MVI) and 12% had a poorly differentiated tumor. Male sex (odds ratio [OR] 2.6), tumor size >2 cm (OR 1.78), elevated AFP (OR 2.31), and poor tumor differentiation (OR 2.59) are significant predictors of MVI. With a median follow up of 41.5 months (range 1-107 months), the 5-year CSS rate was 90% in the absence of MVI compared to 75% in the presence of MVI (p<0.001). Multivariate models revealed that age ≥60 years (hazard ratio [HR] 2.08), MVI (HR 2.26), and poor tumor differentiation (HR 2.42), were significant risk factors of a dismal CSS with HCC size >2 cm, but not with HCC ≤2 cm.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary HCC tumor size ≤2 cm had an excellent prognosis after LT and was not affect by the presence of MVI or poor tumor differentiation.