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Kanis JA, Harvey NC, Lorentzon M, Liu E, Schini M, Abrahamsen B, Adachi JD, Alokail M, Borgstrom F, Bruyère O, Carey JJ, Clark P, Cooper C, Curtis EM, Dennison EM, Díaz-Curiel M, Dimai HP, Grigorie D, Hiligsmann M, Khashayar P, Lems W, Lewiecki EM, Lorenc RS, Papaioannou A, Reginster JY, Rizzoli R, Shiroma E, Silverman SL, Simonsick E, Sosa-Henríquez M, Szulc P, Ward KA, Yoshimura N, Johansson H, Vandenput L, McCloskey EV. Race-specific FRAX models are evidence-based and support equitable care: a response to the ASBMR Task Force report on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk. Osteoporos Int 2024:10.1007/s00198-024-07162-w. [PMID: 38960982 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-024-07162-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 07/05/2024]
Abstract
Task Force on 'Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk' commissioned by the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) Professional Practice Committee has recommended that FRAX® models in the US do not include adjustment for race and ethnicity. This position paper finds that an agnostic model would unfairly discriminate against the Black, Asian and Hispanic communities and recommends the retention of ethnic and race-specific FRAX models for the US, preferably with updated data on fracture and death hazards. In contrast, the use of intervention thresholds based on a fixed bone mineral density unfairly discriminates against the Black, Asian and Hispanic communities in the US. This position of the Working Group on Epidemiology and Quality of Life of the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) is endorsed both by the IOF and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO).
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Kanis
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia.
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - Mattias Lorentzon
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Enwu Liu
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
| | - Marian Schini
- Division of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Bo Abrahamsen
- Odense Patient Data Explorative Network, Institute of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | | | - Majed Alokail
- Biochemistry Department, College of Science, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Olivier Bruyère
- Research Unit in Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - John J Carey
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Patricia Clark
- Clinical Epidemiology Research Unit, Hospital Infantil de Mexico "Federico Gomez", Mexico City, Mexico
- Faculty of Medicine of National Autonomous University of Mexico (Universidad, Nacional Autónoma de México), Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Cyrus Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Elizabeth M Curtis
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Elaine M Dennison
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Manuel Díaz-Curiel
- Metabolic Bone Diseases Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitario Fundación Jiménez Díaz, Universidad Autónoma Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Hans P Dimai
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Styria, Austria
| | - Daniel Grigorie
- Carol Davila University of Medicine, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Endocrinology & Bone Metabolism, National Institute of Endocrinology, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Mickael Hiligsmann
- Department of Health Services Research, CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Patricia Khashayar
- International Institute for Biosensing, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA
| | - Willem Lems
- Department of Rheumatology, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUmc, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - E Michael Lewiecki
- New Mexico Clinical Research & Osteoporosis Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - Roman S Lorenc
- Multidisciplinary Osteoporosis Forum, Warsaw, Poland, Poland
| | | | - Jean-Yves Reginster
- Protein Research Chair, Biochemistry Dept, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - René Rizzoli
- Division of Bone Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals and Faculty of Medicine, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Eric Shiroma
- Laboratory of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, National Institute On Aging, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Stuart L Silverman
- Department of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Eleanor Simonsick
- Translational Gerontology Branch, National Institute On Aging Intramural Research Program, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Pawel Szulc
- INSERM UMR 1033, University of Lyon, Hospital Edouard Herriot, Lyon, France
| | - Kate A Ward
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- MRC Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Noriko Yoshimura
- Department of Preventive Medicine for Locomotive Organ Disorders, The University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Helena Johansson
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Liesbeth Vandenput
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Division of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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2
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Austin TR, Nethander M, Fink HA, Törnqvist AE, Jalal DI, Buzkova P, Barzilay JI, Carbone L, Gabrielsen ME, Grahnemo L, Lu T, Hveem K, Jonasson C, Kizer JR, Langhammer A, Mukamal KJ, Gerszten RE, Psaty BM, Robbins JA, Sun YV, Skogholt AH, Kanis JA, Johansson H, Åsvold BO, Valderrabano RJ, Zheng J, Richards JB, Coward E, Ohlsson C. A plasma protein-based risk score to predict hip fractures. NATURE AGING 2024:10.1038/s43587-024-00639-7. [PMID: 38802582 DOI: 10.1038/s43587-024-00639-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2024] [Accepted: 05/01/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024]
Abstract
As there are effective treatments to reduce hip fractures, identification of patients at high risk of hip fracture is important to inform efficient intervention strategies. To obtain a new tool for hip fracture prediction, we developed a protein-based risk score in the Cardiovascular Health Study using an aptamer-based proteomic platform. The proteomic risk score predicted incident hip fractures and improved hip fracture discrimination in two Trøndelag Health Study validation cohorts using the same aptamer-based platform. When transferred to an antibody-based proteomic platform in a UK Biobank validation cohort, the proteomic risk score was strongly associated with hip fractures (hazard ratio per s.d. increase, 1.64; 95% confidence interval 1.53-1.77). The proteomic risk score, but not available polygenic risk scores for fractures or bone mineral density, improved the C-index beyond the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), which integrates information from clinical risk factors (C-index, FRAX 0.735 versus FRAX + proteomic risk score 0.776). The developed proteomic risk score constitutes a new tool for stratifying patients according to hip fracture risk; however, its improvement in hip fracture discrimination is modest and its clinical utility beyond FRAX with information on femoral neck bone mineral density remains to be determined.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas R Austin
- Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
| | - Maria Nethander
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Bioinformatics and Data Center, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Howard A Fink
- Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, VA Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, US
- Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, US
| | - Anna E Törnqvist
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Diana I Jalal
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA, US
- Iowa City VA Medical Center, Iowa City, IA, US
| | - Petra Buzkova
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
| | - Joshua I Barzilay
- Division of Endocrinology, Kaiser Permanente of Georgia, Atlanta, GA, US
| | - Laura Carbone
- Charlie Norwood VAMC, Augusta, GA, US
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, US
| | - Maiken E Gabrielsen
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Louise Grahnemo
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Tianyuan Lu
- Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Quantitative Life Sciences Program, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- 5 Prime Sciences Inc, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Kristian Hveem
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- HUNT Research Centre, NTNU, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Christian Jonasson
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jorge R Kizer
- Cardiology Section, San Francisco VA Health Care System, San Francisco, CA, US
- Department of Medicine, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, US
| | - Arnulf Langhammer
- HUNT Research Centre, NTNU, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Kenneth J Mukamal
- Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brookline, MA, US
| | - Robert E Gerszten
- Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brookline, MA, US
| | - Bruce M Psaty
- Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
- Departments of Medicine, Epidemiology, and Health Systems and Population Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
| | - John A Robbins
- Department of Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, US
| | - Yan V Sun
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, US
| | - Anne Heidi Skogholt
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Helena Johansson
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Bjørn Olav Åsvold
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Endocrinology, Clinic of Medicine, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Rodrigo J Valderrabano
- Research Program in Men's Health, Aging and Metabolism, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, US
| | - Jie Zheng
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Shanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, Shanghai Digital Medicine Innovation Center, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit (IEU), Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Grove, Bristol, UK
| | - J Brent Richards
- Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Quantitative Life Sciences Program, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Human Genetics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Twin Research, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Eivind Coward
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Claes Ohlsson
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
- Region Västra Götaland, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Department of Drug Treatment, Gothenburg, Sweden.
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Yang L, Dempsey M, Brennan A, Whelan B, Erjiang E, Wang T, Egan R, Gorham K, Heaney F, Armstrong C, Ibarrola GM, Gsel A, Yu M, Carey JJ. Ireland DXA-FRAX may differ significantly and substantially to Web-FRAX. Arch Osteoporos 2023; 18:43. [PMID: 36939937 PMCID: PMC10027809 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-023-01232-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/21/2023]
Abstract
Appropriate use of FRAX reduces the number of people requiring DXA scans, while contemporaneously determining those most at risk. We compared the results of FRAX with and without inclusion of BMD. It suggests clinicians to carefully consider the importance of BMD inclusion in fracture risk estimation or interpretation in individual patients. PURPOSE FRAX is a widely accepted tool to estimate the 10-year risk of hip and major osteoporotic fracture in adults. Prior calibration studies suggest this works similarly with or without the inclusion of bone mineral density (BMD). The purpose of the study is to compare within-subject differences between FRAX estimations derived using DXA and Web software with and without the inclusion of BMD. METHOD A convenience cohort was used for this cross-sectional study, consisting of 1254 men and women aged between 40 and 90 years who had a DXA scan and complete validated data available for analysis. FRAX 10-year estimations for hip and major osteoporotic fracture were calculated using DXA software (DXA-FRAX) and the Web tool (Web-FRAX), with and without BMD. Agreements between estimates within each individual subject were examined using Bland-Altman plots. We performed exploratory analyses of the characteristics of those with very discordant results. RESULTS Overall median DXA-FRAX and Web-FRAX 10-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risk estimations which include BMD are very similar: 2.9% vs. 2.8% and 11.0% vs. 11% respectively. However, both are significantly lower than those obtained without BMD: 4.9% and 14% respectively, P < 0.001. Within-subject differences between hip fracture estimates with and without BMD were < 3% in 57% of cases, between 3 and 6% in 19% of cases, and > 6% in 24% of cases, while for major osteoporotic fractures such differences are < 10% in 82% of cases, between 10 and 20% in 15% of cases, and > 20% in 3% of cases. CONCLUSIONS Although there is excellent agreement between the Web-FRAX and DXA-FRAX tools when BMD is incorporated, sometimes there are very large differences for individuals between results obtained with and without BMD. Clinicians should carefully consider the importance of BMD inclusion in FRAX estimations when assessing individual patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lan Yang
- Insight SFI Research Centre for Data Analytics, Data Science Institute, University of Galway, IDA Business Park, Lower Dangan, Galway, H91 AEX4, Ireland.
| | - Mary Dempsey
- School of Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Attracta Brennan
- School of Computer Science, College of Science and Engineering, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Bryan Whelan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - E Erjiang
- School of Management, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning, China
| | - Tingyan Wang
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rebecca Egan
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | - Kelly Gorham
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | - Fiona Heaney
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | | | | | - Amina Gsel
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | - Ming Yu
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - John J Carey
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
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Yamasaki S, Kamezaki K, Ito Y, Horiuchi T. Bisphosphonate Use for Glucocorticoid-Induced Osteoporosis in Elderly Patients with Immune Thrombocytopenia Receiving Prolonged Steroid Therapy: A Single Institute Retrospective Study. Hematol Rep 2022; 14:276-285. [PMID: 36135323 PMCID: PMC9498807 DOI: 10.3390/hematolrep14030039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Revised: 08/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Prednisolone, used as a standard initial treatment for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), is an important risk factor for osteoporosis. To investigate the prevention of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIO) in elderly ITP patients receiving prolonged steroid therapy, associations between GIO prevention and the real-world data of score changes of a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan, FRAX® and the Garvan tool during the initial loading of prednisolone were examined. In our institute, 22 ITP patients aged ≥ 70 years received 0.5−1.0 mg/kg prednisolone for 2−3 weeks as the initial ITP treatment between 2014 and 2021. The femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) measured by DXA scan was entered into FRAX® to define the risk-adapted approach to bisphosphonate during the initial loading of prednisolone. Bisphosphonate was administered according to <−1.0 femoral neck BMD T-score measured by DXA scan. Worse scores of FRAX® and the Garvan tool were associated with bisphosphonate use for short-term fracture prevention in primary GIO; however, there were no incidents of fracture or significant differences in probabilities determined by FRAX® and the Garvan tool. During the initial loading of prednisolone, prescribing bisphosphonate might prevent the reduction in BMD in elderly patients with ITP receiving prolonged steroid therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satoshi Yamasaki
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kyushu University Beppu Hospital, 4546 Tsurumihara, Beppu 874-0838, Japan
- Department of Hematology and Clinical Research Institute, National Hospital Organization Kyushu Medical Center, Fukuoka 810-0065, Japan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +81-977-27-1600; Fax: +81-977-27-1641
| | - Kenjiro Kamezaki
- Department of Hematology, National Hospital Organization, Fukuoka Higashi Medical Center, Fukuoka 811-3195, Japan
| | - Yoshikiyo Ito
- Department of Hematology, Imamura General Hospital, Kagoshima 890-0064, Japan
| | - Takahiko Horiuchi
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kyushu University Beppu Hospital, 4546 Tsurumihara, Beppu 874-0838, Japan
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Allbritton-King JD, Elrod JK, Rosenberg PS, Bhattacharyya T. Reverse engineering the FRAX algorithm: Clinical insights and systematic analysis of fracture risk. Bone 2022; 159:116376. [PMID: 35240349 PMCID: PMC9035136 DOI: 10.1016/j.bone.2022.116376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2021] [Revised: 01/28/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is a computational tool developed to predict the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture based on inputs of patient characteristics, bone mineral density (BMD), and a set of seven clinical risk factors. While the FRAX tool is widely available and clinically validated, its underlying algorithm is not public. The relative contribution and necessity of each input parameter to the final FRAX score is unknown. We systematically collected hip fracture risk scores from the online FRAX calculator for osteopenic Caucasian women across 473,088 unique inputs. This dataset was used to dissect the FRAX algorithm and construct a reverse-engineered fracture risk model to assess the relative contribution of each input variable. Within the reverse-engineered model, age and T-Score were the strongest contributors to hip fracture risk, while BMI had marginal contribution. Of the clinical risk factors, parent history of fracture and ongoing glucocorticoid treatment had the largest additive effect on risk score. A generalized linear model largely recapitulated the FRAX tool with an R2 of 0.91. Observed effect sizes were then compared to a true patient population by creating a logistic regression model of the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) cohort, which closely paralleled the effect sizes seen in the reverse-engineered fracture risk model. Analysis identified several clinically relevant observations of interest to FRAX users. The role of major osteoporotic fracture risk prediction in contributing to an indication of treatment need is very narrow, as the hip fracture risk prediction accounted for 98% of treatment indications for the SOF cohort. Removing any risk factor from the model substantially decreased its accuracy and confirmed that more parsimonious models are not ideal for fracture prediction. For women 65 years and older with a previous fracture, 98% of FRAX combinations exceeded the treatment threshold, regardless of T-score or other factors. For women age 70+ with a parent history of fracture, 99% of FRAX combinations exceed the treatment threshold. Based on these analyses, we re-affirm the efficacy of the FRAX as the best tool for fracture risk assessment and provide deep insight into the interplay between risk factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jules D Allbritton-King
- Clinical and Investigative Orthopedics Surgery Unit, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, United States of America
| | - Julia K Elrod
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, United States of America
| | - Philip S Rosenberg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, United States of America
| | - Timothy Bhattacharyya
- Clinical and Investigative Orthopedics Surgery Unit, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, United States of America.
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6
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Lee JK. "Take action for bone health". J Orthop Surg (Hong Kong) 2022; 29:23094990211059857. [PMID: 34892999 DOI: 10.1177/23094990211059857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Joon Kiong Lee
- Orthopaedic Surgery, 576400Beacon Hospital Sdn Bhd, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
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