Association of polygenic risk score with the risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis

Tumor mutational load is prognostic for progression to therapy among high-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis

ABSTRACT

High-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HCMBL) is a precursor condition to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We have shown that among individuals with HCMBL, the CLL-International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) is prognostic for time-to-first therapy (TTFT). Little is known about the prognostic impact of somatically mutated genes among individuals with HCMBL. We sequenced DNA from 371 individuals with HCMBL using a targeted sequencing panel of 59 recurrently mutated genes in CLL to identify high-impact mutations. We compared the sequencing results with that of our treatment-naïve CLL cohort (N = 855) and used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with TTFT. The frequencies of any mutated genes were lower in HCMBL (52%) than CLL (70%). At 10 years, 37% of individuals with HCMBL with any mutated gene had progressed requiring treatment compared with 10% among individuals with HCMBL with no mutations; this led to 5.4-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 2.6-11.0) among HCMBL with any mutated gene vs none, independent of CLL-IPI. When considering individuals with low risk of progression according to CLL-IPI, those with HCMBL with any mutations had 4.3-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 1.6-11.8) vs those with none. Finally, when considering both CLL-IPI and any mutated gene status, we observed individuals with HCMBL who were high risk for both prognostic factors had worse prognosis than patients with low-risk CLL (ie, 5-year progression rate of 32% vs 21%, respectively). Among HCMBL, the frequency of somatically mutated genes at diagnosis is lower than that of CLL. Accounting for both the number of mutated genes and CLL-IPI can identify individuals with HCMBL with more aggressive clinical course.

Autonomous B-cell receptor signaling and genetic aberrations in chronic lymphocytic leukemia-phenotype monoclonal B lymphocytosis in siblings of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Clonal expansion of CD5-expressing B cells, commonly designated as monoclonal B lymphocytosis (MBL), is a precursor condition for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The mechanisms driving subclinical MBL B-cell expansion and progression to CLL, occurring in approximately 1% of affected individuals, are unknown. An autonomously signaling B-cell receptor (BCR) is essential for the pathogenesis of CLL. The objectives of this study were functional characterization of the BCR of MBL in siblings of CLL patients and a comparison of genetic variants in MBL-CLL sibling pairs. Screening of peripheral blood by flow cytometry detected 0.2-480 clonal CLL-phenotype cells per microliter (median: 37/μL) in 34 of 191 (17.8%) siblings of CLL patients. Clonal BCR isolated from highly purified CLL-phenotype cells induced robust calcium mobilization in BCR-deficient murine pre-B cells in the absence of external antigen and without experimental crosslinking. This autonomous BCR signal was less intense than the signal originating from the CLL BCR of their CLL siblings. According to genotyping by single nucleotide polymorphism array, whole exome, and targeted panel sequencing, CLL risk alleles were found with high and similar prevalence in CLL patients and MBL siblings, respectively. Likewise, the prevalence of recurrent CLL-associated genetic variants was similar between CLL and matched MBL samples. However, copy number variations and small variants were frequently subclonal in MBL cells, suggesting their acquisition during subclinical clonal expansion. These findings support a stepwise model of CLL pathogenesis, in which autonomous BCR signaling leads to a non-malignant (oligo)clonal expansion of CD5+ B cells, followed by malignant progression to CLL after acquisition of pathogenic genetic variants.

Progression and transformation of chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma and B-cell prolymphocytic leukemia: Report from the 2021 SH/EAHP Workshop

OBJECTIVES

Session 3 of the 2021 Workshop of the Society for Hematopathology/European Association for Haematopathology examined progression and transformation of chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) and B-cell prolymphocytic leukemia (B-PLL).

METHODS

Thirty-one cases were reviewed by the panel. Additional studies such as immunohistochemistry and molecular genetic testing, including whole-exome sequencing and expression profiling, were performed in select cases.

RESULTS

Session 3 included 27 CLL/SLL cases and miscellaneous associated proliferations, 3 cases of B-PLL, and 1 case of small B-cell lymphoma. The criteria for -accelerated CLL/SLL are established for lymph nodes, but extranodal disease can be diagnostically challenging. Richter transformation (RT) is a broad term and includes true transformation from original CLL/SLL clone(s) and clonally unrelated neoplasms. The morphologic, immunophenotypic, and genetic spectrum is diverse with classical and highly unusual examples. T-cell proliferations can also be encountered in CLL/SLL. B-cell prolymphocytic leukemia is a rare, diagnostically challenging disease due to its overlaps with other lymphoid neoplasms.

CONCLUSIONS

The workshop highlighted complexity of progression and transformation in CLL/SLL and B-PLL, as well as diagnostic caveats accompanying heterogeneous presentations of RT and other manifestations of disease progression. Molecular genetic studies are pivotal for diagnosis and determination of clonal relationship, and to predict response to treatment and identify resistance to targeted therapy.

The inherited genetic contribution and polygenic risk score for risk of CLL and MBL: a narrative review

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a neoplasm of B-cells in the blood and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is a precursor state to CLL. This narrative review provides an overview of the genetic studies that identified 43 common variants associated with risk of CLL among individuals of European ancestry. Emerging studies found that ∼50% of these variants are associated with MBL risk. Moreover, the polygenic risk score (PRS) calculated from these CLL variants has been shown to be a robust predictor for both CLL and MBL risk among European ancestry individuals but a weak predictor among African ancestry individuals. By summarizing these genetic studies, we conclude that additional studies are needed in other race/ethnic populations to identify race-specific susceptibility variants, that functional studies are needed to validate the biological mechanisms of the variants, and that the clinical utility of the PRS is limited until preventive strategies for CLL are developed.

Progression and survival of MBL: a screening study of 10 139 individuals

Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is a common hematological premalignant condition that is understudied in screening cohorts. MBL can be classified into low-count (LC) and high-count (HC) types based on the size of the B-cell clone. Using the Mayo Clinic Biobank, we screened for MBL and evaluated its association with future hematologic malignancy and overall survival (OS). We had a two-stage study design including discovery and validation cohorts. We screened for MBL using an eight-color flow-cytometry assay. Medical records were abstracted for hematological cancers and death. We used Cox regression to evaluate associations and estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age and sex. We identified 1712 (17%) individuals with MBL (95% LC-MBL), and the median follow-up time for OS was 34.4 months with 621 individuals who died. We did not observe an association with OS among individuals with LC-MBL (P = .78) but did among HC-MBL (hazard ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.1; P = .03). Among the discovery cohort with a median of 10.0 years follow-up, 31 individuals developed hematological cancers with two-thirds being lymphoid malignancies. MBL was associated with 3.6-fold risk of hematological cancer compared to controls (95% CI, 1.7-7.7; P < .001) and 7.7-fold increased risk for lymphoid malignancies (95% CI:3.1-19.2; P < .001). LC-MBL was associated with 4.3-fold risk of lymphoid malignancies (95% CI, 1.4-12.7; P = .009); HC-MBL had a 74-fold increased risk (95% CI, 22-246; P < .001). In this large screening cohort, we observed similar survival among individuals with and without LC-MBL, yet individuals with LC-MBL have a fourfold increased risk of lymphoid malignancies. Accumulating evidence indicates that there are clinical consequences to LC-MBL, a condition that affects 8 to 10 million adults in the United States.

Meiotic drive in chronic lymphocytic leukemia compared with other malignant blood disorders

The heredity of the malignant blood disorders, leukemias, lymphomas and myeloma, has so far been largely unknown. The present study comprises genealogical investigations of one hundred and twelve Scandinavian families with unrelated parents and two or more cases of malignant blood disease. For comparison, one large family with related family members and three hundred and forty-one cases of malignant blood disease from the Faroese population was included. The inheritance is non-Mendelian, a combination of genomic parental imprinting and feto-maternal microchimerism. There is significantly more segregation in maternal than in paternal lines, predominance of mother-daughter combinations in maternal lines, and father-son combinations in paternal lines. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is the most frequent diagnosis in the family material, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia has a transgenerational segregation that is unique in that inheritance of susceptibility to chronic lymphocytic leukemia is predominant in males of paternal lines. Male offspring with chronic lymphocytic leukemia in paternal lines have a birth-order effect, which is manifest by the fact that there are significantly more male patients late in the sibling line. In addition, there is contravariation in chronic lymphocytic leukemia, i.e. lower occurrence than expected in relation to other diagnoses, interpreted in such a way that chronic lymphocytic leukemia remains isolated in the pedigree in relation to other diagnoses of malignant blood disease. Another non-Mendelian function appears in the form of anticipation, i.e. increased intensity of malignancy down through the generations and a lower age at onset of disease than otherwise seen in cases from the Cancer Registers, in acute lymphoblastic leukemia, for example. It is discussed that this non-Mendelian segregation seems to spread the susceptibility genes depending on the gender of the parents and not equally to all children in the sibling line, with some remaining unaffected by susceptibility i.e. "healthy and unaffected", due to a birth order effect. In addition, anticipation is regarded as a non-Mendelian mechanism that can amplify, «preserve» these vital susceptibility genes in the family. Perhaps this segregation also results in a sorting of the susceptibility, as the percentage of follicular lymphoma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma is lower in the family material than in an unselected material. Although leukemias, lymphomas and myelomas are potentially fatal diseases, this non-Mendelian distribution and amplification hardly play any quantitative role in the survival of Homo sapiens, because these diseases mostly occur after fertile age.

Prevalence of Heavy Chain MGUS by Race and Family History Risk Groups Using a High Sensitivity Screening Method

The mass spectrometry assay found over threefold numbers of individuals with MGUS than gel-based assays across 3 risk groups.

Relative differences in MGUS using the sensitive mass spectrometry assay were similar by race, family history, and age as prior MGUS studies.

Mass-spectrometry (MS) assays detect lower levels of monoclonal proteins and result in earlier detection of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). We examined heavy chain MGUS prevalence using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) MS among 3 risk groups, ages 50 or older: 327 African Americans (AA) and 1223 European Americans (EA) from a clinical biobank and 1093 unaffected first-degree relatives (FDR) of patients with hematologic disorders. Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence rates were directly standardized to 2010 United States population. Prevalence ratios were estimated for comparisons of AA and FDR to the EA group using the Poisson distribution. Results were also compared with population-based prevalence using conventional gel-based methods. Risk groups had similar sex and age distributions. MALDI-TOF MGUS prevalence was higher in the AA (16.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 12.2%, 20.8%]) and FDR (18.3% [95% CI, 16.6%, 21.6%]) than in EA (10.8% [95% CI, 8.8%, 12.7%]), translating to prevalence ratios of 1.73 (95% CI, 1.31, 2.29) and 1.90 (95% CI, 1.55, 2.34), respectively. MALDI-TOF EA prevalence was over threefold higher than conventional estimates but showed similar age trends. Thus, the MALDI-TOF assay found greater numbers with MGUS but similar relative differences by race, family history, and age as prior studies.

Polygenic risk score and risk of monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis in caucasians and risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) in African Americans

Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is a precursor to CLL. Other than age, sex, and CLL family-history, little is known about factors associated with MBL risk. A polygenic-risk-score (PRS) of 41 CLL-susceptibility variants has been found to be associated with CLL risk among individuals of European-ancestry(EA). Here, we evaluate these variants, the PRS, and environmental factors for MBL risk. We also evaluate these variants and the CLL-PRS among African-American (AA) and EA-CLL cases and controls. Our study included 560 EA MBLs, 869 CLLs (696 EA/173 AA), and 2866 controls (2631 EA/235 AA). We used logistic regression, adjusting for age and sex, to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals within each race. We found significant associations with MBL risk among 21 of 41 variants and with the CLL-PRS (OR = 1.86, P = 1.9 × 10^-29, c-statistic = 0.72). Little evidence of any association between MBL risk and environmental factors was observed. We observed significant associations of the CLL-PRS with EA-CLL risk (OR = 2.53, P = 4.0 × 10^-63, c-statistic = 0.77) and AA-CLL risk (OR = 1.76, P = 5.1 × 10^-5, c-statistic = 0.62). Inherited genetic factors and not environmental are associated with MBL risk. In particular, the CLL-PRS is a strong predictor for both risk of MBL and EA-CLL, but less so for AA-CLL supporting the need for further work in this population.

Differential Levels of mRNAs in Normal B Lymphocytes, Monoclonal B Lymphocytosis and Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Cells from the Same Family Identify Susceptibility Genes

INTRODUCTION

People with a family history of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (F-CLL) have an increased risk of monoclonal B lymphocytosis (F-MBL), which is found in up to 18% of first-degree relatives of patients compared to 5% of the total population. This may indicate that the presence of an F-MBL in the relative of a F-CLL patient is due to genetic susceptibility. In this study, we hypothesized that progressive changes in gene expression result in malignant transformation of B lymphocytes to F-MBL, and subsequent alterations in gene expression occur before overt F-CLL develops. The aim of this study of affected and unaffected individuals from a family with multiple CLL cases was to compare mRNA expression levels in control B-lymphocytes, pre-malignant F-MBL and malignant F-CLL cells.

METHODS

To identify inherited changes in gene expression, a high-resolution DNA microarray was used to identify differentially abundant mRNAs in age-matched cases of F-MBL (n = 4), F-CLL (n = 2) and unaffected family relatives (F-Controls, n = 3) within one family. These were then compared to non-kindred controls (NK-Controls, n = 3) and sporadic CLL (S-CLL) cases (n = 6).

RESULTS

Seven differentially abundant mRNAs were identified against similar genetic backgrounds of the family: GRASP and AC016745.3 were decreased in F-MBL and further decreased in F-CLL compared to F-Controls, whereas C11orf80 and METTL8 were progressively increased. PARP3 was increased in F-MBL compared to F-Controls but was decreased in F-CLL compared to F-MBL. Compared to F-Controls, levels of ROR1 and LEF1 were similarly increased in F-MBL and F-CLL. For six of the genes, there were no differences in mRNA levels between S-CLL and F-CLL; however PARP3 was higher in S-CLL.

CONCLUSION

These results are consistent with the hypothesis that changes in expression of specific genes contribute to transformation from normal lymphocytes to MBL and CLL.

The CLL International Prognostic Index predicts outcomes in monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis and Rai 0 CLL

The utility of the chronic lymphocytic leukemia-international prognostic index (CLL-IPI) in predicting outcomes of individuals with Rai 0 stage CLL and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is unclear. We identified 969 individuals (415 MBL and 554 Rai 0 CLL; median age, 64 years; 65% men) seen at Mayo Clinic between 1 January 2001 and 1 October 2018, and ascertained time to first therapy (TTFT) and overall survival (OS). After a median follow up of 7 years, the risk of disease progression needing therapy was 2.9%/y for MBL (median, not reached) and 5%/y for Rai 0 CLL (median, 10.4 years). Among patients with low, intermediate, and high/very high-risk CLL-IPI risk groups, the estimated 5-year risk of TTFT was 13.5%, 30%, and 58%, respectively, P< .0001 (c-statistic = 0.69); and the estimated 5-year OS was 96.3%, 91.5%, and 76%, respectively, P< .0001 (c-statistic = 0.65). In a multivariable analysis of absolute B-cell count with individual factors of the CLL-IPI, the absolute B-cell count was associated with shorter TTFT (hazard ratio [HR] for each 10 × 109/L increase: 1.31; P< .0001) and shorter OS (HR: 1.1; P = .02). The OS of the entire cohort was similar to that of the age- and sex-matched general population of Minnesota (P = .17), although Rai 0 CLL patients with high and very high-risk CLL-IPI score had significantly shorter OS (P= .01 and P= .0001, respectively). The results of this study demonstrate the ability of CLL-IPI to predict time from diagnosis to first treatment (an end point not affected by therapy) in a large cohort of patients whose only manifestation of disease is a circulating clonal lymphocyte population.

Coinherited genetics of multiple myeloma and its precursor, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance

So far, 23 germline susceptibility loci have been associated with multiple myeloma (MM) risk. It is unclear whether the genetic variation associated with MM susceptibility also predisposes to its precursor, monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Leveraging 2434 MM cases, 754 MGUS cases, and 2 independent sets of controls (2567/879), we investigated potential shared genetic susceptibility of MM and MGUS by (1) performing MM and MGUS genome-wide association studies (GWAS); (2) validating the association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 23 established MM loci (MM-PRS) with risk of MM, and for the first time with MGUS; and (3) examining genetic correlation of MM and MGUS. Heritability and genetic estimates yielded 17% (standard error [SE] ±0.04) and 15% (SE ±0.11) for MM and MGUS risk, respectively, and a 55% (SE ±0.30) genetic correlation. The MM-PRS was associated with risk of MM when assessed continuously (odds ratio [OR], 1.17 per SD; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.21) or categorically (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.38-2.09 for highest; OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55-0.90 for lowest compared with middle quintile). The MM-PRS was similarly associated with MGUS (OR, 1.19 per SD; 95% CI, 1.14-1.26 as a continuous measure, OR, 1.77, 95%CI: 1.29-2.43 for highest and OR, 0.70, 95%CI: 0.50-0.98 for lowest compared with middle quintile). MM and MGUS associations did not differ by age, sex, or MM immunoglobulin isotype. We validated a 23-SNP MM-PRS in an independent series of MM cases and provide evidence for its association with MGUS. Our results suggest shared common genetic susceptibility to MM and MGUS.

Natural history of monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis among relatives in CLL families

Chronic lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL) has one of the highest familial risks among cancers. Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), the precursor to CLL, has a higher prevalence (13%-18%) in families with 2 or more members with CLL compared with the general population (5%-12%). Although, the rate of progression to CLL for high-count MBLs (clonal B-cell count ≥500/µL) is ∼1% to 5%/y, no low-count MBLs have been reported to progress to date. We report the incidence and natural history of MBL in relatives from CLL families. In 310 CLL families, we screened 1045 relatives for MBL using highly sensitive flow cytometry and prospectively followed 449 of them. MBL incidence was directly age- and sex-adjusted to the 2010 US population. CLL cumulative incidence was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. At baseline, the prevalence of MBL was 22% (235/1045 relatives). After a median follow-up of 8.1 years among 449 relatives, 12 individuals progressed to CLL with a 5-year cumulative incidence of 1.8%. When considering just the 139 relatives with low-count MBL, the 5-year cumulative incidence increased to 5.7%. Finally, 264 had no MBL at baseline, of whom 60 individuals subsequently developed MBL (2 high-count and 58 low-count MBLs) with an age- and sex-adjusted incidence of 3.5% after a median of 6 years of follow-up. In a screening cohort of relatives from CLL families, we reported progression from normal-count to low-count MBL to high-count MBL to CLL, demonstrating that low-count MBL precedes progression to CLL. We estimated a 1.1% annual rate of progression from low-count MBL, which is in excess of that in the general population.

Evaluating polygenic risk scores in assessing risk of nine solid and hematologic cancers in European descendants

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic risk variants for cancers. The utility of these variants in assessing risk of esophageal, gastric and endometrial cancers, as well as melanoma, glioma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma, chronic lymphoid leukemia and multiple myeloma, has not been adequately investigated. We constructed a site-specific polygenic risk score (PRS) for each of these nine cancers using their GWAS-identified risk variants. Using data from 400 807 participants of European descent in the UK Biobank, a population-based cohort study, we estimated the hazard ratios of each cancer associated with its PRS using Cox proportional hazard models. During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, 3905 incident cases of these nine cancers were identified in the cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.53 to 0.69 for these cancers. Except for esophageal cancer, significant dose-response associations were observed between PRS and cancer risk. Compared to individuals in the middle quintile (40%-60%) at an average risk, those among the highest 5% of the PRS had a twofold elevated risk of melanoma, glioma, follicular lymphoma or multiple myeloma, and a fourfold elevated risk of chronic lymphoid leukemia. Using PRS, 63.0% of the participants could be classified as having an over twofold elevated risk for at least one cancer. The PRS derived using risk variants identified to date by GWAS showed the potential in identifying individuals at a significantly elevated risk of cancer for prevention.

Prognostic models for newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is the most common cancer of the lymphatic system in Western countries. Several clinical and biological factors for CLL have been identified. However, it remains unclear which of the available prognostic models combining those factors can be used in clinical practice to predict long-term outcome in people newly-diagnosed with CLL.

OBJECTIVES

To identify, describe and appraise all prognostic models developed to predict overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or treatment-free survival (TFS) in newly-diagnosed (previously untreated) adults with CLL, and meta-analyse their predictive performances.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (from January 1950 to June 2019 via Ovid), Embase (from 1974 to June 2019) and registries of ongoing trials (to 5 March 2020) for development and validation studies of prognostic models for untreated adults with CLL. In addition, we screened the reference lists and citation indices of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all prognostic models developed for CLL which predict OS, PFS, or TFS, provided they combined prognostic factors known before treatment initiation, and any studies that tested the performance of these models in individuals other than the ones included in model development (i.e. 'external model validation studies'). We included studies of adults with confirmed B-cell CLL who had not received treatment prior to the start of the study. We did not restrict the search based on study design.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form to collect information based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Independent pairs of review authors screened references, extracted data and assessed risk of bias according to the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). For models that were externally validated at least three times, we aimed to perform a quantitative meta-analysis of their predictive performance, notably their calibration (proportion of people predicted to experience the outcome who do so) and discrimination (ability to differentiate between people with and without the event) using a random-effects model. When a model categorised individuals into risk categories, we pooled outcome frequencies per risk group (low, intermediate, high and very high). We did not apply GRADE as guidance is not yet available for reviews of prognostic models.

MAIN RESULTS

From 52 eligible studies, we identified 12 externally validated models: six were developed for OS, one for PFS and five for TFS. In general, reporting of the studies was poor, especially predictive performance measures for calibration and discrimination; but also basic information, such as eligibility criteria and the recruitment period of participants was often missing. We rated almost all studies at high or unclear risk of bias according to PROBAST. Overall, the applicability of the models and their validation studies was low or unclear; the most common reasons were inappropriate handling of missing data and serious reporting deficiencies concerning eligibility criteria, recruitment period, observation time and prediction performance measures. We report the results for three models predicting OS, which had available data from more than three external validation studies: CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) This score includes five prognostic factors: age, clinical stage, IgHV mutational status, B2-microglobulin and TP53 status. Calibration: for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, the pooled five-year survival per risk group from validation studies corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study. In the very high-risk group, predicted survival from CLL-IPI was lower than observed from external validation studies. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of seven external validation studies (3307 participants, 917 events) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.77). The 95% prediction interval (PI) of this model for the c-statistic, which describes the expected interval for the model's discriminative ability in a new external validation study, ranged from 0.59 to 0.83. Barcelona-Brno score Aimed at simplifying the CLL-IPI, this score includes three prognostic factors: IgHV mutational status, del(17p) and del(11q). Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk group, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of four external validation studies (1755 participants, 416 events) was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.67); 95% PI 0.59 to 0.68. MDACC 2007 index score The authors presented two versions of this model including six prognostic factors to predict OS: age, B2-microglobulin, absolute lymphocyte count, gender, clinical stage and number of nodal groups. Only one validation study was available for the more comprehensive version of the model, a formula with a nomogram, while seven studies (5127 participants, 994 events) validated the simplified version of the model, the index score. Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk groups, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of the seven external validation studies for the index score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70); 95% PI 0.51 to 0.77.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large number of published studies of prognostic models for OS, PFS or TFS for newly-diagnosed, untreated adults with CLL, only a minority of these (N = 12) have been externally validated for their respective primary outcome. Three models have undergone sufficient external validation to enable meta-analysis of the model's ability to predict survival outcomes. Lack of reporting prevented us from summarising calibration as recommended. Of the three models, the CLL-IPI shows the best discrimination, despite overestimation. However, performance of the models may change for individuals with CLL who receive improved treatment options, as the models included in this review were tested mostly on retrospective cohorts receiving a traditional treatment regimen. In conclusion, this review shows a clear need to improve the conducting and reporting of both prognostic model development and external validation studies. For prognostic models to be used as tools in clinical practice, the development of the models (and their subsequent validation studies) should adapt to include the latest therapy options to accurately predict performance. Adaptations should be timely.

Antimicrobial use before chronic lymphocytic leukemia: a retrospective cohort study

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is accompanied by increased risk of potentially fatal infections. While this can mostly be attributed to disease-related immune dysfunction, it is not known if CLL patients are also constitutionally susceptible to infections. We linked nation-wide Danish registers to explore this possibility, approximating infection susceptibility by use of antimicrobials. We assessed the incidence of antimicrobials among CLL patients and matched controls from the general population for up to 22 years before index diagnosis, and among children and grandchildren of CLL patients and their matched controls. Our analyses showed that for CLL patients overall antimicrobial use began to increase gradually six years before leukemia diagnosis. Before this time point, CLL patients had used significantly more macrolides (relative risk = 1.15; 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.20), antimycotics (1.18; 1.08-1.30), and antivirals (1.62; 1.45-1.81) than controls for up to 22 years before diagnosis. The same pattern of increased use was found among CLL patients' children and grandchildren. Our study suggests that CLL diagnosis is preceded by decades of increased susceptibility to infections. The duration of this time window is compatible with causal roles of immune dysfunction and/or certain infections in CLL pathogenesis, possibly mediating the association between constitutional infection susceptibility and CLL risk.

Delineation of clinical and biological factors associated with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

BACKGROUND

The incidence of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is significantly higher compared with age- and sex-matched controls.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of factors associated with SCC risk.

METHODS

Clinical CLL and SCC data were obtained from Mayo Clinic CLL Resource and self-reported questionnaires among patients with newly diagnosed CLL. We computed the CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) from CLL prognostic factors, and a polygenic risk score from SCC susceptibility variants. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 1269 patients with CLL, the median follow-up was 7 years, and SCC subsequently developed in 124 patients. Significant associations with SCC risk were history of skin cancer (HR=4.80; 95% CI: 3.37-6.83), CLL-IPI (HR=1.42; 95% CI: 1.13-1.80), and polygenic risk score (HR=2.58; 95% CI: 1.50-4.43). In a multivariable model, these factors were independent predictors (C statistic = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.62-0.76). T-cell immunosuppressive treatments were also associated with SCC risk (HR=2.29; 95% CI: 1.47-3.55; adjusted for age, sex, and prior SCC).

LIMITATIONS

The sample size decreases when combining all risk factors in a single model.

CONCLUSION

SCC risk includes history of skin cancer, an aggressive disease at time of CLL diagnosis, receiving T-cell immunosuppressive treatments, and high polygenic risk score. Future studies should develop prediction models that include these factors to improved screening guidelines.

Characteristics and utilisation of the Mayo Clinic Biobank, a clinic-based prospective collection in the USA: cohort profile

PURPOSE

The Mayo Clinic Biobank was established to provide a large group of patients from which comparison groups (ie, controls) could be selected for case-control studies, to create a prospective cohort with sufficient power for common outcomes and to support electronic health record (EHR) studies.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 56 862 participants enrolled (21% response rate) into the Mayo Clinic Biobank from Rochester, Minnesota (77%, n=43 836), Jacksonville, Florida (18%, n=10 368) and La Crosse, Wisconsin (5%, n=2658). Participants were all Mayo Clinic patients, 18 years of age or older and US residents.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Overall, 43% of participants were 65 years of age or older and female participants were more frequent (59%) than males at all sites. Most participants resided in the Upper Midwest regions of the USA (Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois or Wisconsin), Florida or Georgia. Self-reported race among Biobank participants was 90% white. Here we provide examples of the types of studies that have successfully utilised the resource, including (1) investigations of the population itself, (2) provision of controls for case-control studies, (3) genotype-driven research, (4) EHR-based research and (5) prospective recruitment to other studies. Over 270 projects have been approved to date to access Biobank data and/or samples; over 200 000 sample aliquots have been approved for distribution.

FUTURE PLANS

The data and samples in the Mayo Clinic Biobank can be used for various types of epidemiological and clinical studies, especially in the setting of case-control studies for which the Biobank samples serve as control samples. We are planning cohort studies with additional follow-up and acquisition of genetic information on a large scale.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients with HLA-B27 referred for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation do not have worse outcomes: Results of a population-based case series analysis in British Columbia, Canada

Human leukocyte antigen B27 (HLA-B27), associated with spondyloarthritis, was suggested to be protective against chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). It is hypothesized that HLA-B27 patients may have worse outcome in part related to their other comorbidities.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes of CLL and small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) patients referred for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) based on their HLA-B27 status.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based case series analyzed CLL/SLL patients who were HLA-typed for potential allo-HSCT in British Columbia, Canada.

RESULTS

of 279 CLL/SLL patients referred for potential allo-HSCT, 34 patients were HLA-B27 positive. For HLA-B27 patients, median age at CLL diagnosis was 53.5 years (range, 27-67) and 71% were male. Seven patients had 11q deletion and nine patients had 17p deletion detected prior to first CLL therapy or at relapse. Eleven HLA-B27 patients received allo-HSCT. Two patients developed acute myeloid leukemia. One patient with ankylosing spondylitis had Richter's transformation prior to any CLL therapy. Spondyloarthritis-related disorders were diagnosed in 12 HLA-B27 patients but there was no temporal correlation with development of CLL. Overall survival (OS) and treatment-free survival (TFS) were not significantly different between HLA-B27 patients with or without spondyloarthritis-related disorders. There were no significant differences in clinical characteristics at CLL diagnosis or OS/TFS between HLA-B27 positive and negative patients referred for allo-HSCT.

CONCLUSIONS

HLA-B27 positivity does not appear to influence outcome for CLL/SLL patients referred for allo-HSCT. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical significance of HLA-B27 in a general CLL population.

Using germline variants to estimate glioma and subtype risks

BACKGROUND

Twenty-five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with adult diffuse glioma risk. We hypothesized that the inclusion of these 25 SNPs with age at diagnosis and sex could estimate risk of glioma as well as identify glioma subtypes.

METHODS

Case-control design and multinomial logistic regression were used to develop models to estimate the risk of glioma development while accounting for histologic and molecular subtypes. Case-case design and logistic regression were used to develop models to predict isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation status. A total of 1273 glioma cases and 443 controls from Mayo Clinic were used in the discovery set, and 852 glioma cases and 231 controls from UCSF were used in the validation set. All samples were genotyped using a custom Illumina OncoArray.

RESULTS

Patients in the highest 5% of the risk score had more than a 14-fold increase in relative risk of developing an IDH mutant glioma. Large differences in lifetime absolute risk were observed at the extremes of the risk score percentile. For both IDH mutant 1p/19q non-codeleted glioma and IDH mutant 1p/19q codeleted glioma, the lifetime risk increased from almost null to 2.3% and almost null to 1.7%, respectively. The SNP-based model that predicted IDH mutation status had a validation concordance index of 0.85.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that germline genotyping can provide new tools for the initial management of newly discovered brain lesions. Given the low lifetime risk of glioma, risk scores will not be useful for population screening; however, they may be useful in certain clinically defined high-risk groups.