The CLL International Prognostic Index predicts outcomes in monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis and Rai 0 CLL

Utility of Targeted Sequencing Compared to FISH for Detection of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Copy Number Alterations

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is characterized by multiple copy number alterations (CNAs) and somatic mutations that are central to disease prognosis, risk stratification, and mechanisms of therapy resistance. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) panels are widely used in clinical applications as the gold standard for screening prognostic chromosomal abnormalities in CLL. DNA sequencing is an alternative approach to identifying CNAs but is not an established method for clinical CNA screening. We sequenced DNA from 509 individuals with CLL or monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), the precursor to CLL, using a targeted sequencing panel of 59 recurrently mutated genes in CLL and additional amplicons across regions affected by clinically relevant CNAs [i.e., del(17p), del(11q), del(13q), and trisomy 12]. We used the PatternCNV algorithm to call CNA and compared the concordance of calling clinically relevant CNAs by targeted sequencing to that of FISH. We found a high accuracy of calling CNAs via sequencing compared to FISH. With FISH as the gold standard, the specificity of targeted sequencing was >95%, sensitivity was >86%, positive predictive value was >90%, and negative predictive value was >84% across the clinically relevant CNAs. Using targeted sequencing, we were also able to identify other common CLL-associated CNAs, including del(6q), del(14q), and gain 8q, as well as complex karyotype, defined as the presence of 3 or more chromosomal abnormalities, in 26 patients. In a single and cost-effective assay that can be performed on stored DNA samples, targeted sequencing can simultaneously detect CNAs, somatic mutations, and complex karyotypes, which are all important prognostic features in CLL.

Unmutated IGHV at diagnosis in patients with early stage CLL independently predicts for shorter follow-up time to first treatment (TTFT)

The mutational status of the IGHV gene is routinely assessed in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), since it is both prognostic of clinical outcome and predictive of response to treatment. This study evaluates the IGHV mutational status, assessed in newly diagnosed CLL patients, as a stand-alone predictor of time to first treatment (TTFT). We analysed the data of 236 CLL patients, diagnosed at our centre between January 2004 and September 2020, with a minimum follow-up period of 3.0 years, Binet A-B and Rai 0-II stages. IGHV was unmutated in 38.1 % and mutated in 61.9 % of cases. The univariate analysis showed a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001) in TTFT based on unmutated (85.2 % at 14 years, 95 % CI = 63.3-94.5 %) or mutated (41.3 % at 14 years, 95 % CI = 29.5-51.8 %) and the need for treatment at 1, 3 and 5 years was of 20.0 % vs 4.1 % (p < 0.001), 42.7 % vs 11.4 % (p < 0.001) and 55.8 % vs 20.0 % (p < 0.001) in unmutated and mutated IGHV patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis confirmed that unmutated IGHV status negatively affects TTFT (p < 0.001), in addition to high-risk genomic aberration (p = 0.025), Rai stage I (p = 0.007) and II (p-value < 0.001). The difference in TTFT based on unmutated or mutated IGHV status remains statistically significant also when considering the subgroups by the genomic aberrations and Rai stages. Our findings suggest that, with the single analysis of the IGHV mutational status at CLL diagnosis, along with clinical and laboratory data, and without karyotype and TP53 data, clinicians will have prognostic and predictive indications for the first clinical treatment and appropriate follow-up of patients.

Tumor mutational load is prognostic for progression to therapy among high-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis

ABSTRACT

High-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HCMBL) is a precursor condition to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We have shown that among individuals with HCMBL, the CLL-International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) is prognostic for time-to-first therapy (TTFT). Little is known about the prognostic impact of somatically mutated genes among individuals with HCMBL. We sequenced DNA from 371 individuals with HCMBL using a targeted sequencing panel of 59 recurrently mutated genes in CLL to identify high-impact mutations. We compared the sequencing results with that of our treatment-naïve CLL cohort (N = 855) and used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with TTFT. The frequencies of any mutated genes were lower in HCMBL (52%) than CLL (70%). At 10 years, 37% of individuals with HCMBL with any mutated gene had progressed requiring treatment compared with 10% among individuals with HCMBL with no mutations; this led to 5.4-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 2.6-11.0) among HCMBL with any mutated gene vs none, independent of CLL-IPI. When considering individuals with low risk of progression according to CLL-IPI, those with HCMBL with any mutations had 4.3-fold shorter TTFT (95% CI, 1.6-11.8) vs those with none. Finally, when considering both CLL-IPI and any mutated gene status, we observed individuals with HCMBL who were high risk for both prognostic factors had worse prognosis than patients with low-risk CLL (ie, 5-year progression rate of 32% vs 21%, respectively). Among HCMBL, the frequency of somatically mutated genes at diagnosis is lower than that of CLL. Accounting for both the number of mutated genes and CLL-IPI can identify individuals with HCMBL with more aggressive clinical course.

Prediction of outcomes for high-count monoclonal B lymphocytosis using an epigenetic and immunogenetic signature

ABSTRACT

Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) progresses to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) requiring therapy at 1% to 5% per year. Improved prediction of progression would greatly benefit individuals with MBL. Patients with CLL separate into 3 distinct epigenetic subtypes (epitypes) with high prognostic significance, and recently the intermediate epitype has been shown to be enriched for high-risk immunoglobulin lambda variable (IGLV) 3-21 rearrangements, impacting outcomes for these patients. Here, we employed this combined strategy to generate the epigenetic and light chain immunoglobulin (ELCLV3-21) signature to classify 219 individuals with MBL. The ELCLV3-21 high-risk signature distinguished MBL individuals with a high probability of progression (39.9% and 71.1% at 5 and 10 years, respectively). ELCLV3-21 improved the accuracy of predicting time to therapy for individuals with MBL compared with other established prognostic indicators, including the CLL international prognostic index (c-statistic, 0.767 vs 0.668, respectively). Comparing ELCLV3-21 risk groups in MBL vs a cohort of 226 patients with CLL revealed ELCLV3-21 high-risk individuals with MBL had significantly shorter time to therapy (P = .003) and reduced overall survival (P = .03) compared with ELCLV3-21 low-risk individuals with CLL. These results highlight the power of the ELCLV3-21 approach to identify individuals with a higher likelihood of adverse clinical outcome and may provide a more accurate approach to classify individuals with small B-cell clones.

Frontline Therapy of CLL-Changing Treatment Paradigms

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The therapeutic landscape for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has undergone a complete makeover following the introduction of highly effective targeted therapies, beginning with ibrutinib which first attained regulatory approval for CLL in 2014.

RECENT FINDINGS

In recent years, we have seen further refinement of therapeutic options with the development of newer-generation Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitors (BTKi) including acalabrutinib and zanubrutinib that improve upon the safety of ibrutinib. Additionally, venetoclax-based approaches, combined with anti-CD20 antibodies, have allowed for time-limited targeted therapeutic strategies which are particularly attractive for certain subsets of patients though have demonstrated efficacy across all subgroups. Lastly, there is an ongoing movement toward the development of time-limited strategies inclusive of both a BTKi and venetoclax that may further widen potential options. CLL patients requiring frontline therapy have a unique burden of choice between highly effective therapies that differ substantially with respect to side effect profiles and schedules. This review will focus on the frontline management of CLL in the setting of these rapidly changing options.

An approach to anxiety during watch-and-wait for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: Monitor and move on

Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) is the most frequently diagnosed hematologic malignancy with the majority of patients at diagnosis in the "watch and wait" stage of treatment - language that gives the perception of an axe waiting to fall, belying the fact that up to 30% of patients will never need treatment in their lifetime. While receiving active surveillance, patients report anxiety, distress, and depression, yet there is little research capturing the experience of this patient population, nor describing interventions to improve their experience (Damen, 2022). In an effort to "do something," patients may turn to often expensive and unproven alternative therapies. At each clinic visit, there is an opportunity to provide relevant and understandable information, resources to address anxiety, and response to unmet needs to increase the patient's experience of shared decision making. Reframing the experience to a more proactive perspective such as 'Monitor and Move On' versus "Watch and Wait' may empower patients with CLL along their trajectory.

Leucémie lymphoïde chronique et anxiété: « surveiller et continuer à vivre » plutôt qu’« observer et attendre »

La leucémie lymphoïde chronique (LLC) est l’hémopathie maligne la plus courante. La majorité des personnes qui reçoivent un diagnostic de LLC entrent dans l’étape du suivi consistant à observer l’évolution de la maladie et à attendre. Cela peut donner l’impression d’avoir une épée de Damoclès au-dessus de la tête, mais le fait est que 30 % des personnes atteintes n’auront jamais besoin de traitement. Étant étroitement surveillés, les patients se disent anxieux, désemparés et déprimés. En effet, nous savons peu de choses sur l’expérience de ces patients et sur les interventions visant à adoucir leur parcours (Damen, 2022 ). Voulant « faire quelque chose », ils peuvent être tentés par des thérapies alternatives coûteuses et non éprouvées. Chaque visite en clinique est une occasion de donner au patient des informations pertinentes et compréhensibles, des ressources pour gérer l’anxiété et des réponses aux besoins non satisfaits; on l’aide ainsi à partager la prise de décisions. Pour la suite des choses, la perspective de « surveiller et continuer à vivre » au lieu d’« observer et attendre » peut aider les personnes atteintes de LLC à mieux vivre cette épreuve.

Cytogenetics in the management of chronic lymphocytic leukemia: Guidelines from the Groupe Francophone de Cytogénétique Hématologique (GFCH)

Chromosomal abnormalities are frequent in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and most have prognostic value. In addition to the four well-known abnormalities (13q, 11q and 17p deletions, and trisomy 12), other recurrent aberrations have been linked to the disease outcome and/or drug resistance. Moreover, the complex karyotype has recently emerged as a prognostic marker for patients undergoing immunochemotherapy or targeted therapies. Here, we describe the main chromosomal abnormalities identified in CLL and related disorders (small lymphocytic lymphoma and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis) by reviewing the most recent literature and discussing their detection and clinical impact. Lastly, we provide technical guidelines and a strategy for the cytogenetic assessment of CLL.

Additional lesions identified by genomic microarrays are associated with an inferior outcome in low-risk chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients

We explored the relevance of genomic microarrays (GM) in the refinement of prognosis in newly diagnosed low-risk chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) patients as defined by isolated del(13q) or no lesions by a standard 4 probe fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis. Compared to FISH, additional lesions were detected by GM in 27 of the 119 patients (22.7%). The concordance rate between FISH and GM was 87.4%. Discordant results between cytogenetic banding analysis (CBA) and GM were observed in 45/119 cases (37.8%) and were mainly due to the intrinsic characteristics of each technique. The presence of additional lesions by GM was associated with age > 65 years (p = 0.047), advanced Binet stage (p = 0.001), CLL-IPI score (p < 0.001), a complex karyotype (p = 0.004) and a worse time-to-first treatment in multivariate analysis (p = 0.009). Additional lesions by GM were also significantly associated with a worse time-to-first treatment in the subset of patients with wild-type TP53 and mutated IGHV (p = 0.025). In CLL patients with low-risk features, the presence of additional lesions identified by GM helps to identify a subset of patients with a worse outcome that could be proposed for a risk-adapted follow-up and for early treatment including targeted agents within clinical trials.

Evaluation of the CLL-IPI and IPS-E Prognostic Indices in a Young Middle Eastern Population with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: A Retrospective Analysis at the Kuwait Cancer Control Center

INTRODUCTION

The Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) is a powerful prognostic tool validated in multiple Western populations. However, its utility in the young Middle Eastern population is unknown.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 152 unselected patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) diagnosed between 2008 and 2022 at the Kuwait Cancer Control Center, which serves as the sole cancer center in Kuwait. The evaluation of the CLL-IPI was based on the assessment of event-free survival (EFS) across the entire cohort. Subsequently, we compared the CLL-IPI with the International Prognostic Score for Early-stage patients (IPS-E) in order to predict the time to first treatment specifically within the subgroup of patients diagnosed with early-stage disease.

RESULTS

The median age of the study cohort was 59.9 years (IQR, 53.1-68.8). The 5-year EFS rates for the low, intermediate, and high/very high-risk categories were approximately 82%, 34%, and 23%, respectively, p < 0.001 (C-statistic = 0.67). On multivariate analysis, advanced stage and unmated IGHV status were independent prognostic factors of EFS. In those with early-stage disease, cumulative 5-year treatment incidence rates for the low, intermediate, and high/very high-risk categories based on the CLL-IPI score were approximately 8%, 55%, and 55%, respectively, p = 0.001 (C-statistic = 0.70). However, based on the IPS-E score, the cumulative 5-year treatment incidence rates for the low, intermediate, and high-risk categories were approximately 0%, 10%, and 60%, respectively, p < 0.001 (C-statistic = 0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

The CLL-IPI and the IPS-E are valid stratification tool in our young Middle Eastern population.

Differential prognosis of single and multiple TP53 abnormalities in high-count MBL and untreated CLL

TP53 aberrations, including mutations and deletion of 17p13, are important adverse prognostic markers in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) but are less studied in high count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HCMBL), an asymptomatic pre-malignant stage of CLL. Here we estimated the prevalence and impact of TP53 aberrations in 1,230 newly diagnosed treatment-naïve individuals (849 CLL, 381 HCMBL). We defined TP53 state as: wild-type (no TP53 mutations and normal 17p), single-hit (del(17p) or one TP53 mutation), or multi-hit (TP53 mutation and del(17p), TP53 mutation and loss of heterozygosity, or multiple TP53 mutations). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for time to first treatment and overall survival by TP53 state. We found 64 (7.5%) CLL patients and 17 (4.5%) HCMBL individuals had TP53 mutations with variant allele fraction >10%. Del(17p) was present in 58 (6.8%) of CLL and 11 (2.9%) of HCMBL cases. Most individuals had wild-type (N=1,128, 91.7%) TP53 state, followed by multi-hit (N=55, 4.5%) and then single-hit (N=47, 3.8%) TP53 state. The risk of shorter time to therapy and death increased with the number of TP53 abnormalities. Compared to wild-type patients, multi-hit patients had 3-fold and single-hit patients had 1.5-fold increased risk of requiring therapy. Multi-hit patients also had 2.9-fold increased risk of death compared to wild-type. These results remained stable after accounting for other known poor prognostic factors. Both TP53 mutations and del(17p) may provide important prognostic information for HCMBL and CLL that would be missed if only one were measured.

Progression and transformation of chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma and B-cell prolymphocytic leukemia: Report from the 2021 SH/EAHP Workshop

OBJECTIVES

Session 3 of the 2021 Workshop of the Society for Hematopathology/European Association for Haematopathology examined progression and transformation of chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) and B-cell prolymphocytic leukemia (B-PLL).

METHODS

Thirty-one cases were reviewed by the panel. Additional studies such as immunohistochemistry and molecular genetic testing, including whole-exome sequencing and expression profiling, were performed in select cases.

RESULTS

Session 3 included 27 CLL/SLL cases and miscellaneous associated proliferations, 3 cases of B-PLL, and 1 case of small B-cell lymphoma. The criteria for -accelerated CLL/SLL are established for lymph nodes, but extranodal disease can be diagnostically challenging. Richter transformation (RT) is a broad term and includes true transformation from original CLL/SLL clone(s) and clonally unrelated neoplasms. The morphologic, immunophenotypic, and genetic spectrum is diverse with classical and highly unusual examples. T-cell proliferations can also be encountered in CLL/SLL. B-cell prolymphocytic leukemia is a rare, diagnostically challenging disease due to its overlaps with other lymphoid neoplasms.

CONCLUSIONS

The workshop highlighted complexity of progression and transformation in CLL/SLL and B-PLL, as well as diagnostic caveats accompanying heterogeneous presentations of RT and other manifestations of disease progression. Molecular genetic studies are pivotal for diagnosis and determination of clonal relationship, and to predict response to treatment and identify resistance to targeted therapy.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: A Review

IMPORTANCE

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), defined by a minimum of 5 × 109/L monoclonal B cells in the blood, affects more than 200 000 people and is associated with approximately 4410 deaths in the US annually. CLL is associated with an immunocompromised state and an increased rate of complications from infections.

OBSERVATIONS

At the time of diagnosis, the median age of patients with CLL is 70 years, and an estimated 95% of patients have at least 1 medical comorbidity. Approximately 70% to 80% of patients with CLL are asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis, and one-third will never require treatment for CLL. Prognostic models have been developed to estimate the time to first treatment and the overall survival, but for patients who are asymptomatic, irrespective of disease risk category, clinical observation is the standard of care. Patients with symptomatic disease who have bulky or progressive lymphadenopathy or hepatosplenomegaly and those with a low neutrophil count, anemia, or thrombocytopenia and/or symptoms of fever, drenching night sweats, and weight loss (B symptoms) should be offered treatment. For these patients, first-line treatment consists of a regimen containing either a covalent Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor (acalabrutinib, zanubrutinib, or ibrutinib) or a B-cell leukemia/lymphoma 2 (BCL2) inhibitor (venetoclax). There is no evidence that starting either class before the other improves outcomes. The covalent BTK inhibitors are typically used indefinitely. Survival rates are approximately 88% at 4 years for acalabrutinib, 94% at 2 years for zanubrutinib, and 78% at 7 years for ibrutinib. Venetoclax is prescribed in combination with obinutuzumab, a monoclonal anti-CD20 antibody, in first-line treatment for 1 year (overall survival, 82% at 5-year follow-up). A noncovalent BTK inhibitor, pitobrutinib, has shown an overall response rate of more than 70% after failure of covalent BTK inhibitors and venetoclax. Phosphoinositide 3'-kinase (PI3K) inhibitors (idelalisib and duvelisib) can be prescribed for disease that progresses with BTK inhibitors and venetoclax, but patients require close monitoring for adverse events such as autoimmune conditions and infections. In patients with multiple relapses, chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy with lisocabtagene maraleucel was associated with a 45% complete response rate. The only potential cure for CLL is allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant, which remains an option after use of targeted agents.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

More than 200 000 people in the US are living with a CLL diagnosis, and CLL causes approximately 4410 deaths each year in the US. Approximately two-thirds of patients eventually need treatment. Highly effective novel targeted agents include BTK inhibitors such as acalabrutinib, zanubrutinib, ibrutinib, and pirtobrutinib or BCL2 inhibitors such as venetoclax.

Characterization of clonal immunoglobulin heavy V-D-J gene rearrangements in Chinese patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: Clinical features and molecular profiles

Introduction

Several prognostic factors of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) have been identified, such as cytogenetic aberrations and recurrent gene mutations. B-cell receptor (BCR) signaling plays an important role in the tumorigenesis of CLL, and its clinical significance in predicting prognosis is also under study.

Methods

Therefore, we assessed the already-known prognostic markers, immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGH) gene usage and the associations among these factors in 71 patients diagnosed with CLL in our center from October 2017 to March 2022. Sequencing of IGH gene rearrangements was performed using Sanger sequencing or IGH-based next-generation sequencing, and the results were further analyzed for distinct IGH/IGHD/IGHJ genes and the mutational status of the clonotypic IGHV (IGH variable) gene.

Results

In summary, by analyzing the distribution of potential prognostic factors in CLL patients, we displayed a landscape of molecular profiles, confirmed the predictive value of recurrent genetic mutations and chromosome aberrations, and found that IGHJ3 was associated with favorable markers (mutated IGHV, trisomy 12), while IGHJ6 tended to correlate with unfavorable factors (unmutated IGHV, del17p).

Discussion

These results provided an indication for IGH gene sequencing in predicting the prognosis of CLL.

Monoclonal B-cell Lymphocytosis - a review of diagnostic criteria, biology, natural history, and clinical management

Since first described almost two decades ago, there has been significant evolution in our definition and understanding of the biology and implications of monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL). This review provides an overview of the definition, classification, biology, and natural history of MBL, mainly focused on the dominant CLL-like phenotype form of MBL. The increasingly recognized implications of MBL with respect to immune dysfunction are discussed, particularly in view of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with management recommendations for MBL in the clinic.

Progression and survival of MBL: a screening study of 10 139 individuals

Monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is a common hematological premalignant condition that is understudied in screening cohorts. MBL can be classified into low-count (LC) and high-count (HC) types based on the size of the B-cell clone. Using the Mayo Clinic Biobank, we screened for MBL and evaluated its association with future hematologic malignancy and overall survival (OS). We had a two-stage study design including discovery and validation cohorts. We screened for MBL using an eight-color flow-cytometry assay. Medical records were abstracted for hematological cancers and death. We used Cox regression to evaluate associations and estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age and sex. We identified 1712 (17%) individuals with MBL (95% LC-MBL), and the median follow-up time for OS was 34.4 months with 621 individuals who died. We did not observe an association with OS among individuals with LC-MBL (P = .78) but did among HC-MBL (hazard ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.1; P = .03). Among the discovery cohort with a median of 10.0 years follow-up, 31 individuals developed hematological cancers with two-thirds being lymphoid malignancies. MBL was associated with 3.6-fold risk of hematological cancer compared to controls (95% CI, 1.7-7.7; P < .001) and 7.7-fold increased risk for lymphoid malignancies (95% CI:3.1-19.2; P < .001). LC-MBL was associated with 4.3-fold risk of lymphoid malignancies (95% CI, 1.4-12.7; P = .009); HC-MBL had a 74-fold increased risk (95% CI, 22-246; P < .001). In this large screening cohort, we observed similar survival among individuals with and without LC-MBL, yet individuals with LC-MBL have a fourfold increased risk of lymphoid malignancies. Accumulating evidence indicates that there are clinical consequences to LC-MBL, a condition that affects 8 to 10 million adults in the United States.

Serum soluble CD23 levels are an independent predictor of time to first treatment in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Serum soluble CD23 (sCD23) levels have been acknowledged as a prognostic factor in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), but their potential relevance has not been analyzed in recent times. We retrospectively studied 338 CLL, small lymphocytic lymphoma, or CLL-type monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis patients from a single institution, with available sCD23 levels at diagnosis. Baseline features and outcomes were compared between patients with sCD23 ≤/>1000 UI/L. The 140 patients (41%) who had sCD23 > 1000 UI/L showed adverse-risk clinical and biological characteristics. High sCD23 levels were predictive of a shorter time to first treatment (5-year probability of requiring treatment: 60 vs. 20%, p < 0.0001; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, p = 0.003 in a multivariable model also including the CLL International Prognostic Index and the absolute lymphocyte count), and a poorer 5-year overall survival (70 vs. 82%, p = 0.0009). These data suggest the potential of sCD23 to predict treatment-free survival and to shed light on mechanisms of activity and resistance to CD23-directed therapies.

A perspective on prognostic models in chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the era of targeted agents

Despite the increase in the number of prognostic models currently available for evaluating patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), their current application and utilization in clinical practice in the era of targeted agents is unclear. A critical reappraisal of recently developed prognostic models is presented in this review. The underlying CLL's genetic instability and changes in the host's health and comorbidities can all contribute to the acquisition of additional risk factors for adverse outcomes during the course of the disease. Therefore, available risk models solely based on pretreatment variables only partially predict patients' clinical outcome. A dynamic prognostic model that takes into account changes in the risk profile over time could indeed be useful in routine clinical practice. The next generation of risk assessment models should incorporate post-treatment and response biomarkers such as minimal residual disease. Finally, recent advances in the field of machine learning present novel opportunities to generate models capable of providing an individualized estimation of clinical outcomes in CLL. However, in the era of improved prognostic models, it is important to remember that these indices should supplement but not replace clinical expertise and medical decision-making.

Derivation and validation of a lipid-covered prognostic model for mature T-cell lymphomas

Background

Mature T-cell lymphomas (MTCLs), a group of diseases with high aggressiveness and vulnerable prognosis, lack for the accurate prognostic stratification systems at present. Novel prognostic markers and models are urgently demanded. Aberrant lipid metabolism is closely related to the tumor progression but its prognostic significance in MTCLs remains unexplored. This study aims to investigate the relationship between dysregulated lipid metabolism and survival prognosis of MTCLs and establish a novel and well-performed prognostic scoring system for MTCL patients.

Methods

A total of 173 treatment-naive patients were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed to assess the prognostic significance of serum lipid profiles and screen out independent prognostic factors, which constituted a novel prognostic model for MTCLs. The performance of the novel model was assessed in the training and validation cohort, respectively, by examining its calibration, discrimination and clinical utility.

Results

Among the 173 included patients, 115 patients (01/2006–12/2016) constituted the training cohort and 58 patients (01/2017–06/2020) formed the validation cohort. Univariate analysis revealed declined total cholesterol (TC, P = 0.000), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, P = 0.000) and increased triglycerides (TG, P = 0.000) correlated to inferior survival outcomes. Multivariate analysis revealed extranodal involved sites ≥ 2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.439; P = 0.036), β2-MG ≥ 3 mg/L (HR: 4.165; P = 0.003) and TC < 3.58 mmol/L (HR: 3.338; P = 0.000) were independent predictors. Subsequently, a novel prognostic model, EnBC score, was constructed with these three factors. Harrell’s C-index of the model in the training and validation cohort was 0.840 (95% CI 0.810–0.870) and 0.882 (95% CI 0.822–0.942), respectively, with well-fitted calibration curves. The model divided patients into four risk groups with distinct OS [median OS: not available (NA) vs. NA vs. 14.0 vs. 4.0 months, P < 0.0001] and PFS (median PFS: 84.0 vs. 19.0 vs. 8.0 vs. 1.5 months, P < 0.0001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis  further revealed that EnBC score provided higher diagnostic capacity and clinical benefit, compared with International Prognostic Index (IPI).

Conclusion

Firstly, abnormal serum lipid metabolism was demonstrated significantly related to the survival of MTCL patients. Furthermore, a lipid-covered prognostic scoring system was established and performed well in stratifying patients with MTCLs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12935-021-02042-3.