Systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy for the diagnosis of suspected pulmonary embolism

Soluble ST2: A Novel Biomarker for Diagnosis and Prognosis of Cardiovascular Disease

The increasing incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant global health concern, affecting millions of individuals each year. Accurate diagnosis of acute CVD poses a formidable challenge, as misdiagnosis can significantly decrease patient survival rates. Traditional biomarkers have played a vital role in the diagnosis and prognosis of CVDs, but they can be influenced by various factors, such as age, sex, and renal function. Soluble ST2 (sST2) is a novel biomarker that is closely associated with different CVDs. Its low reference change value makes it suitable for continuous measurement, unaffected by age, kidney function, and other confounding factors, facilitating risk stratification of CVDs. Furthermore, the combination of sST2 with other biomarkers can enhance diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of sST2, focusing on its diagnostic and prognostic value as a myocardial marker for different types of CVDs and discussing the current limitations of sST2.

Contemporary approaches to pulmonary embolism diagnosis: a clinical review

The optimal diagnosis strategy for pulmonary embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) remains complex. This review summarizes PE diagnosis with clinical presentation, decision rules and investigations for acute PE. This review was performed using studies published between January 1, 2010, and September 1, 2023. PE should be considered in ED in patients with chest pain, shortness of breath, syncope or signs of deep veinous thrombosis. Definitive diagnosis of PE relies on thoracic imaging, with the use of chest tomographic pulmonary angiogram or ventilation-perfusion lung scintigraphy. To limit the continuous increased use of chest imaging, the clinical probability should be the first step for PE workup. The pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) can rule out PE at this stage. If not, for low or intermediate probability, several clinical decision rules have been validated, either by ruling out PE on clinical signs, or by raising D-dimer thresholds (YEARS or PEGeD [Pulmonary Embolism Graduated D-Dimer] criteria) or by combination of these different rules. It is recommended that patients with a high clinical probability of PE should undergo chest imaging without the need for D-dimer testing. The PE diagnostic approach can be tailored in specific populations such as pregnant, younger, COVID-19, or cancer patients. PE diagnosis workup illustrates the complexity of modern probabilistic-based approaches of decision-making in medicine. It is recommended to use a Bayesian approach with the evaluation of clinical probability, then order D-dimer if the PERC rule is positive, then adapt the D-dimer threshold for ordering chest imaging using clinical decision rules.

Diagnostic Strategies in Pulmonary Embolism

Key to the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) is a careful bedside evaluation. After this, there are three further diagnostic steps. In all patients, estimation of the clinical probability of PE is performed. The other two steps are measurement of D-dimer when indicated and chest imaging when indicated. The clinical probability of PE is estimated at low, moderate, or high. The prevalence of PE is less than 15% among patients with low clinical probability, 15 to 40% with moderate clinical probability, and >40% in patients with high clinical probability. Clinical gestalt has been found to be very useful in estimating probability of PE. However, clinical prediction rules, such as Wells criteria, the modified Geneva score, and the PE rule out criteria have been advocated as adjuncts. In patients with high clinical probability, the high prevalence of PE can lower the D-dimer negative predictive value, which could increase the risk of diagnostic failure. Consequently, patients with high probability for PE need to proceed directly to chest imaging, without prior measurement of D-dimer level. Key studies in determining which low to moderate probability patients require chest imaging are the Age-adjusted D-dimer cutoff levels to rule out pulmonary embolism (ADJUST-PE), the Simplified diagnostic management of suspected pulmonary embolism (YEARS), and the Pulmonary Embolism Graduated D-Dimer trials. In patients with low clinical probability, PE can be excluded without imaging studies if D-dimer is less than 1,000 ng/mL. In patients in whom there is not a low likelihood for PE, this can be excluded without imaging studies if the D-dimer is below the age-adjusted threshold.

Quality of referrals for lower extremity ultrasonography and computed tomography pulmonary angiography and associations with positive findings of venous thromboembolism

INTRODUCTION

The referral is the basis for radiologists' assessment of modality, protocol and urgency, and insufficient information may threaten patient safety. The aim of this study was to assess the completeness of referrals for lower extremity venous duplex ultrasonography (LEVDUS) and computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), and to investigate associations between the provided clinical information including risk factors, symptoms and lab results in the referrals and positive findings of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), respectively.

METHODS

Referrals for LEVDUS (801) and CTPA (800) performed from 2016 to 2019 were obtained. Three categories of clinical information from the referrals were recorded: symptoms, risk factors and laboratory results, as well as positive imaging findings of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Referral completeness was rated from zero to three according to how many categories of clinical information the referral provided.

RESULTS

Information from all three clinical information categories was provided in 15% and 25% of referrals for LEVDUS and CTPA, respectively, while 2% and 10% of referrals did not contain any clinical information. Symptoms were provided most often (85% for LEVDUS and 94% for CTPA). Provided information about risk factors was significantly associated with positive findings for LEVDUS, (p = 0.02) and CTPA (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A great majority of referrals failed to provide one or more categories of clinical information. Risk factors were associated with a positive finding of VTE on LEVDUS and CTPA.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Improving clinical information in referrals may improve justification, patient safety and quality of radiology services.

Influencing factors on the time to CT in suspected pulmonary embolism: an explorative investigation

Pulmonary embolism is a potentially fatal condition with increased mortality if anticoagulation is delayed. This study aimed to find influencing factors on the duration from requesting a computed tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography (CTPA) to performing a CTPA in suspected acute pulmonary embolism. In 1849 cases, automatically generated time data were extracted from the radiological information system. The impact of the distance to the scanner, case-related features (sector of patient care, triage), and workload (demand for CTs, performed CTs, available staff, hospital occupancy) were investigated retrospectively using multiple regression. The time to CTPA was shorter in cases from the emergency room (ER) than in inpatients and outpatients at distances below 160 m and 240 m, respectively. While requests from the ER were also performed faster than cases from regular wards (< 180 m), no difference was found between the ER and intensive care units. Compared to "not urgent" cases, the workflow was shorter in "urgent" (- 17%) and "life-threatening" (- 67%) situations. The process was prolonged with increasing demand (+ 5%/10 CTs). The presented analysis identified relevant in-hospital influences on the CTPA workflow, including the distance to the CT together with the sector of patient care, the case triage, and the demand for imaging.

Pulmonary Embolism: An Update Based on the Revised AWMF-S2k Guideline

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is the third most common acute cardiovascular disease. The risk of PE increases with age and mortality is high. Patients are stratified into hemodynamically stable versus unstable patients, as this has important implications for diagnosis and therapy. Since clinical signs and symptoms of acute PE are nonspecific, the clinical likelihood of PE is estimated to guide diagnostic pathways. D-dimer testing is performed in hemodynamically stable patients with low or intermediate probability of PE and the visualization of thromboembolism and its sequelae is commonly achieved with computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), supplemented by ultrasound techniques. With confirmed PE, another risk stratification estimates disease severity and defines intensity and setting of the ensuing treatment. The therapeutic spectrum ranges from outpatient treatment with initial oral anticoagulation to thrombolytic or interventional treatment in the intensive care unit or catheterization laboratory. In single cases, even acute surgical thrombectomy is attempted.

Imaging-based risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism based on dual-energy CT-derived radiomics

BACKGROUND

Technological progress in the acquisition of medical images and the extraction of underlying quantitative imaging data has introduced exciting prospects for the diagnostic assessment of a wide range of conditions. This study aims to investigate the diagnostic utility of a machine learning classifier based on dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) radiomics for classifying pulmonary embolism (PE) severity and assessing the risk for early death.

METHODS

Patients who underwent CT pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) between January 2015 and March 2022 were considered for inclusion in this study. Based on DECT imaging, 107 radiomic features were extracted for each patient using standardized image processing. After dividing the dataset into training and test sets, stepwise feature reduction based on reproducibility, variable importance and correlation analyses were performed to select the most relevant features; these were used to train and validate the gradient-boosted tree models.

RESULTS

The trained machine learning classifier achieved a classification accuracy of .90 for identifying high-risk PE patients with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .59. This CT-based radiomics signature showed good diagnostic accuracy for risk stratification in individuals presenting with central PE, particularly within higher risk groups.

CONCLUSION

Models utilizing DECT-derived radiomics features can accurately stratify patients with pulmonary embolism into established clinical risk scores. This approach holds the potential to enhance patient management and optimize patient flow by assisting in the clinical decision-making process. It also offers the advantage of saving time and resources by leveraging existing imaging to eliminate the necessity for manual clinical scoring.

D-dimer Levels for the exclusion of pulmonary embolism: making sense of international guideline recommendations

Several international guidelines provide recommendations around the use of D-dimer testing for exclusion of pulmonary embolism, including the appropriate D-dimer threshold (or cutoff), but there is no consensus among them. We briefly discuss guideline variation, performance characteristics, and limitations of commercially available D-dimer assays in this setting, referencing the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines that recommend immunoassays with high sensitivity (≥97%) and negative predictive value (≥98%). While age-adjusted D-dimer and pretest-adjusted D-dimer are considered a safe strategy across predefined patient subgroups, clinicians need to recognize the different performance characteristics of D-dimer assays to enable safe clinical decisions for their patients. Importantly, D-dimer values must be correlated not only to clinical findings but also interpreted within the context of the accuracy and precision of the specific testing modality, adhering to manufacturer specifications that are approved by regulatory authorities.

An overview of systematic reviews on imaging tests for diagnosis of pulmonary embolism applying different network meta-analytic methods

PURPOSE

This study aimed to apply different methods of diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis (DTA-NMA) for studies reporting results of five imaging tests for the diagnosis of suspected pulmonary embolism (PE): pulmonary angiography (PA), computed tomography angiography (CTPA), magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), planar ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) scintigraphy and single-photon emission computed tomography ventilation/perfusion (SPECT V/Q).

METHODS

We searched four databases (MEDLINE [via PubMed], Cochrane CENTRAL, Scopus, and Epistemonikos) from inception until June 2, 2022 to identify systematic reviews (SRs) describing diagnostic accuracy of PA, CTPA, MRA, V/Q scan and SPECT V/Q for suspected PE. Study-level data were extracted and pooled using a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) meta-regression approach and two DTA-NMA models to compare accuracy estimates of different imaging tests. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2) tool and certainty of evidence using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework.

RESULTS

We identified 13 SRs, synthesizing data from 33 primary studies and for four imaging tests (PA, CTPA, MRA and V/Q scan). The HSROC meta-regression model using PA as the reference standard showed that MRA had the best overall diagnostic performance with sensitivity of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76, 1.00) and specificity of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.99). However, DTA-NMA models indicated that V/Q scan had the highest sensitivity, while CTPA was most specific.

CONCLUSION

Selecting a different DTA-NMA method to assess multiple diagnostic tests can affect estimates of diagnostic accuracy. There is no established method, but the choice depends on the data and familiarity with Bayesian statistics.

Prediction of Venous Thromboembolism in Diverse Populations Using Machine Learning and Structured Electronic Health Records

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Current risk assessment tools, such as the Caprini and Padua scores and Wells criteria, have limitations in their applicability and accuracy. This study aimed to develop machine learning models using structured electronic health record data to predict diagnosis and 1-year risk of VTE.

METHODS

We trained and validated models on data from 159 001 participants in the Mount Sinai Data Warehouse. We then externally tested them on 401 723 participants in the UK Biobank and 123 039 participants in All of Us. All data sets contain populations of diverse ancestries and clinical histories. We used these data sets to develop small, medium, and large models with increasing features on a range of optimizing portability to maximizing performance. We make trained models publicly available in click-and-run format at https://doi.org/10.17632/tkwzysr4y6.6.

RESULTS

In the holdout and external test sets, respectively, models achieved areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 to 0.83 and 0.72 to 0.82 for VTE diagnosis prediction and 0.76 to 0.78 and 0.64 to 0.69 for 1-year risk prediction, significantly outperforming the Padua score. Models also demonstrated robust performance across different VTE types and patient subsets, including ethnicity, age, and surgical and hospitalization status. Models identified both established and novel clinical features contributing to VTE risk, offering valuable insights into its underlying pathophysiology.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning models using structured electronic health record data can significantly improve VTE diagnosis and 1-year risk prediction in diverse populations. Model probability scores exist on a continuum, affecting mortality risk in both healthy individuals and VTE cases. Integrating these models into electronic health record systems to generate real-time predictions may enhance VTE risk assessment, early detection, and preventative measures, ultimately reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with VTE.

Are Patients With Morbid Obesity at Increased Risk of Pulmonary Embolism or Proximal Deep Vein Thrombosis After Lower Limb Arthroplasty? A Large-database Study

BACKGROUND

Whether increased BMI is associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is controversial. Despite this, BMI > 40 kg/m 2 remains a common cutoff for lower limb arthroplasty eligibility. Current United Kingdom national guidelines list obesity as a risk factor for VTE, but these are based on evidence that has largely failed to differentiate between potentially minor (distal deep vein thrombosis [DVT]), and more harmful (pulmonary embolism [PE] and proximal DVT) diagnoses. Determining the association between BMI and the risk of clinically important VTE is needed to improve the utility of national risk stratification tools.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

(1) In patients undergoing lower limb arthroplasty, is BMI 40 kg/m 2 or higher (morbid obesity) associated with an increased risk of PE or proximal DVT within 90 days of surgery, compared with patients with BMI less than 40 kg/m 2 ? (2) What proportion of investigations ordered for PE and proximal DVT were positive in patients with morbid obesity who underwent lower limb arthroplasty compared with those with BMI less than 40 kg/m 2 ?

METHODS

Data were collected retrospectively from the Northern Ireland Electronic Care Record, a national database recording patient demographics, diagnoses, encounters, and clinical correspondence. Between January 2016 and December 2020, 10,217 primary joint arthroplasties were performed. Of those, 21% (2184 joints) were excluded; 2183 were in patients with multiple arthroplasties and one had no recorded BMI. All 8033 remaining joints were eligible for inclusion, 52% of which (4184) were THAs, 44% (3494) were TKAs, and 4% (355) were unicompartmental knee arthroplasties; all patients had 90 days of follow-up. The Wells score was used to guide the investigations. Indications for CT pulmonary angiography for suspected PE included pleuritic chest pain, reduced oxygen saturations, dyspnea, or hemoptysis. Indications for ultrasound scans for suspected proximal DVT included leg swelling, pain, warmth, or erythema. Distal DVTs were recorded as negative scans because we do not treat them with modified anticoagulation. The division of categories was set at BMI 40 kg/m 2 , a common clinical cutoff used in surgical eligibility algorithms. Patients were grouped according to WHO BMI categories to assess for the following confounding variables: sex, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, joint replaced, VTE prophylaxis, grade of operative surgeon, and implant cement status.

RESULTS

We found no increase in the odds of PE or proximal DVT in any WHO BMI category. When comparing patients with BMI less than 40 kg/m 2 with those with a BMI of 40 kg/m 2 or higher, there was no difference in the odds of PE (0.8% [58 of 7506] versus 0.8% [four of 527]; OR 1.0 [95% CI 0.4 to 2.8]; p > 0.99) or proximal DVT (0.4% [33 of 7506] versus 0.2% [one of 527]; OR 2.3 [95% CI 0.3 to 17.0]; p = 0.72). Of those who received diagnostic imaging, 21% (59 of 276) of CT pulmonary angiograms and 4% (34 of 718) of ultrasounds were positive for patients with BMI less than 40 kg/m 2 compared with 14% (four of 29; OR 1.6 [95% CI 0.6 to 4.5]; p = 0.47) and 2% (one of 57; OR 2.7 [95% CI 0.4 to 18.6]; p = 0.51) for patients with BMI 40 kg/m 2 or higher. There was no difference in the percentage of CT pulmonary angiograms ordered (4% [276 of 7506] versus 5% [29 of 527]; OR 0.7 [95% CI 0.5 to 1.0]; p = 0.07) or ultrasounds ordered (10% [718 of 7506] versus 11% [57 of 527]; OR 0.9 [95% CI 0.7 to 1.2]; p = 0.49) for BMI less than 40 kg/m 2 and BMI 40 kg/m 2 or higher.

CONCLUSION

Increased BMI should not preclude individuals from lower limb arthroplasty based on suspected risk of clinically important VTE. National VTE risk stratification tools should be based on evidence assessing clinically relevant VTE (specifically, proximal DVT, PE, or death of thromboembolism) only.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, therapeutic study.

ECG Features of Pulmonary Embolism in a Patient With Normal D-Dimer and Hypoxia

Pulmonary embolism is a life-threatening condition that requires urgent treatment. We present the case of a 76-year-old male referred to our medical team with dyspnoea, shortness of breath on exertion, and chest pain. Upon further questioning, the patient reported a two-week history of right-sided parasternal pleuritic chest pain without radiation. He denied any history of haemoptysis, calf swelling or pain, recent surgery, and reduced mobility. The patient had a medical history of bilateral cataracts, glaucoma, and hypertension. Clinical examination was unremarkable except for requiring 2L/minute supplemental oxygen to maintain an oxygen saturation of 94%, and blood tests were unremarkable, including a normal D-dimer. Chest radiography revealed no obvious pathological findings. However, the electrocardiogram showed a right bundle branch, sinus tachycardia, and an S1Q3T3 pattern. A computed tomography pulmonary angiogram confirmed pulmonary emboli within the right lower lobe segmental artery, extending into the bilateral basal segmental branch and posterior basal segmental branch. The patient was commenced on low molecular weight heparin initially followed by rivaroxaban 20 mg once daily. This case highlights the importance of having a high degree of suspicion for pulmonary embolism, and D-dimer is an important screening test that can be normal.

Does Adding the Pulmonary Infarction and Right Ventricle to Left Ventricle Diameter Ratio to the Qanadli Index (A Combined Qanadli Index) More Accurately, Predict Short-Term Mortality in Patients with Pulmonary Embolism?

Background  The Qanadli index can be used to assess the severity of pulmonary arterial involvement in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. However, it seems that considering pulmonary infarction and right ventricle/left ventricle (RV/LV) ratio along with this index (called the combined Qanadli index) can provide a more accurate view of changes in cardiovascular parameters in these patients and help predict mortality in a better manner. In this regard, we evaluated the ability of the combined Qanadli index versus the Qanadli index in predicting short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism. Methods  This retrospective study enrolled 234 patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Patients were divided into two groups: those who expired in 30 days and who survived. Then they were evaluated by computed tomography angiography of pulmonary arteries. The RV/LV diameter ratio and also pulmonary artery obstruction index (PAOI) were calculated. The patient's computed tomography scans were reviewed for pulmonary infarction. By adding the RV/LV ratio and pulmonary infarction to PAOI, a new index called the modified Qanadli score was made. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was done for finding predictors of mortality. Results  Nine cases (40%) of patients in the mortality group and 42 (20%) of survivors had ischemic heart disease and the difference was significantly meaningful. The mean Qanadli index in the mortality group was 16.8 ± 8.45 and in survivors was 8.3 ± 4.2. By adding the pulmonary infarction score and PAOI score to RV/LV ratio score, the odds ratio (OR) for predicting mortality increased significantly to 13 and 16, respectively, which were significantly meaningful. Based on our findings, the highest OR for predicting short-term mortality was obtained through a combined Qanadli index (PAOI score + pulmonary infarction score + RV/LV score) that was 17 in univariable and 18 in multivariable logistic regression analysis ( p -value = 0.015). Conclusion  The new combined Qanadli index has more ability than the Qanadli index and RV/LV ratio for predicting changes in cardiovascular parameters and short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism.

Impacts of different reconstruction methods on the image quality of cadmium-zinc-telluride-based single photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography pulmonary perfusion imaging

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to evaluate the impacts of different reconstruction methods [filtered back projection (FBP) and ordered subset expectation maximization (OSEM)] and different filters (Butterworth filter and Gaussian filter) on the image quality in cadmium-zinc-telluride (CZT)-based single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)/computed tomography (CT) pulmonary perfusion imaging.

METHODS

A combinations including FBP with Butterworth filter, OSEM with Butterworth filter (OSEM + Butterworth filter ), and OSEM with Gaussian filter (OSEM + Gaussian filter) were used during SPECT image reconstruction. Visual and quantitative parameters [root mean square (RMS) noise, contrast and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR)] were used to evaluate image quality.

RESULTS

The OSEM + Gaussian filter had better RMS noise and CNR than those of the FBP + Butterworth filter or OSEM + Butterworth filter, while the OSEM + Butterworth filter had the best contrast. The highest visual scores were obtained by OSEM + Gaussian filter ( P  < 0.0001). In the lesion size <2 cm group, the contrast ( P < 0.01) and visual scores ( P < 0.001) of OSEM + Butterworth filter were better than those of the other two groups. In the lesion size ≥2 cm group, the RMS noise and visual scores of OSEM + Gaussian filter were better than those of the other two groups.

CONCLUSION

In CZT SPECT/CT pulmonary perfusion imaging, this study recommended the clinical use of the OSEM + Gaussian filter combination for reconstruction in both conventional and larger lesions, the OSEM + Butterworth filter image postprocessing method might be advantageous in small lesions.

Temporal Trends in the Use of Computed Tomographic Pulmonary Angiography for Suspected Pulmonary Embolism in the Emergency Department : A Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

Recently, validated clinical decision rules have been developed that avoid unnecessary use of computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED).

OBJECTIVE

To measure any resulting change in CTPA use for suspected PE.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis.

SETTING

26 European EDs in 6 countries.

PATIENTS

Patients with CTPA performed for suspected PE in the ED during the first 7 days of each odd month between January 2015 and December 2019.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary end points were the CTPAs done for suspected PE in the ED and the number of PEs diagnosed in the ED each year adjusted to an annual census of 100 000 ED visits. Temporal trends were estimated using generalized linear mixed regression models.

RESULTS

8970 CTPAs were included (median age, 63 years; 56% female). Statistically significant temporal trends for more frequent use of CTPA (836 per 100 000 ED visits in 2015 vs. 1112 in 2019; P < 0.001), more diagnosed PEs (138 per 100 000 in 2015 vs. 164 in 2019; P = 0.028), a higher proportion of low-risk PEs (annual percent change [APC], 13.8% [95% CI, 2.6% to 30.1%]) with more ambulatory management (APC, 19.3% [CI, 4.1% to 45.1%]), and a lower proportion of intensive care unit admissions (APC, -8.9% [CI, -17.1% to -0.3%]) were observed.

LIMITATION

Data were limited to 7 days every 2 months.

CONCLUSION

Despite the recent validation of clinical decision rules to limit the use of CTPA, an increase in the CTPA rate along with more diagnosed PEs and especially low-risk PEs were instead observed.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

None specific for this study.

Augmentation of the RSNA Pulmonary Embolism CT Dataset with Bounding Box Annotations and Anatomic Localization of Pulmonary Emboli

Supplemental material is available for this article. Keywords: CT, Pulmonary Arteries, Embolism/Thrombosis, Feature Detection © RSNA, 2023.

Joint 2022 European Society of Thoracic Surgeons and The American Association for Thoracic Surgery guidelines for the prevention of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism in thoracic surgery

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is a potentially fatal but preventable postoperative complication. Thoracic oncology patients undergoing surgical resection, often after multimodality induction therapy, represent among the highest risk groups for postoperative VTE. Currently there are no VTE prophylaxis guidelines specific to these thoracic surgery patients. Evidenced-based recommendations will help clinicians manage and mitigate risk of VTE in the postoperative period and inform best practice.

OBJECTIVE

These joint evidence-based guidelines from The American Association for Thoracic Surgery and the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons aim to inform clinicians and patients in decisions about prophylaxis to prevent VTE in patients undergoing surgical resection for lung or esophageal cancer.

METHODS

The American Association for Thoracic Surgery and the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons formed a multidisciplinary guideline panel that included broad membership to minimize potential bias when formulating recommendations. The McMaster University GRADE Centre supported the guideline development process, including updating or performing systematic evidence reviews. The panel prioritized clinical questions and outcomes according to their importance for clinicians and patients. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used, including GRADE Evidence-to-Decision frameworks, which were subject to public comment.

RESULTS

The panel agreed on 24 recommendations focused on pharmacological and mechanical methods for prophylaxis in patients undergoing lobectomy and segmentectomy, pneumonectomy, and esophagectomy, as well as extended resections for lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The certainty of the supporting evidence for the majority of recommendations was judged as low or very low, largely due to a lack of direct evidence for thoracic surgery. The panel made conditional recommendations for use of parenteral anticoagulation for VTE prevention, in combination with mechanical methods, over no prophylaxis for cancer patients undergoing anatomic lung resection or esophagectomy. Other key recommendations include: conditional recommendations for using parenteral anticoagulants over direct oral anticoagulants, with use of direct oral anticoagulants suggested only in the context of clinical trials; conditional recommendation for using extended prophylaxis for 28 to 35 days over in-hospital prophylaxis only for patients at moderate or high risk of thrombosis; and conditional recommendations for VTE screening in patients undergoing pneumonectomy and esophagectomy. Future research priorities include the role of preoperative thromboprophylaxis and the role of risk stratification to guide use of extended prophylaxis.

Diagnostic test accuracy of imaging modalities for adults with acute pulmonary embolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the current literature on diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) of imaging modalities for adults with acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

BACKGROUND

Medical imaging plays an integral role in evaluating and managing those with APE. Guidance for imaging modality use for APE diagnosis varies due to a lack of clinical standardisation. Despite this, CTPA remains the first-line imaging modality used by clinicians.

METHODS

A literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, Trove and Mednar databases (2012-2020; English language) was performed. Studies assessing the DTA of imaging modalities for APE diagnosis were included. DTA studies methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2 tool). Results of eligible studies were pooled using random or fixed effects modelling the calculate the pooled DTA of explored imaging modalities for APE. The Higgins I² test were performed to assess between study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

10 Studies, involving 998 participants, were enrolled and pooled using the random effects model. Of the explored modalities, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), specifically pulmonary MRI and magnetic resonance pulmonary angiography (MRPA) exhibited the highest pooled DTA. Sensitivity, specificity, negative likelihood ratio, positive likelihood ratio and diagnostic odds ratio for MRPA were 0.952 (95% CI, 0.881 to 0.987), 0.857 (95% CI, 0.637 to 0.97), 5.631 (95% CI, 2.163 to 14.659), 0.06 (95% CI, 0.007 to 0.537) and 80.310 (95% CI, 15.607 to 413.25) respectively. Based on the QUADAS-2 criteria, most studies presented low to moderate risk of bias and concern regarding applicability.

CONCLUSION

The explored ultrasound and MRI protocols which exhibit a lower radiation burden when compared to the current gold standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), have acceptable diagnostic accuracy for APE and can be useful in certain situations.

Utility of Lung Perfusion SPECT/CT in Detection of Pulmonary Thromboembolic Disease: Outcome Analysis

Purpose

To evaluate the clinical outcome of Q-SPECT/CT in pulmonary thromboembolic disease.

Methods

From Jan 2020 to Jan 2021, 30 consecutive patients (M:F = 8:22; median age = 52 year (21-89)) suspected of having acute pulmonary embolism (PE) or chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) were referred for non-contrasted Q-SPECT/CT. All patients were COVID-19 PCR negative. MSKCC Q-SPECT/CT and/or PISAPED criteria were used to determine the presence of thromboembolic disease in Q-SPECT/CT. Final diagnosis was made based on composite reference standards that included at least 2-month clinical cardiorespiratory assessment and follow-up imaging.

Results

Q-SPECT/CT was positive in 19 patients: indeterminate in 1 and 10 were negative. Three false positive cases were observed during follow-up. Of the remaining 16 true positives, all patients' cardiorespiratory symptom were improved or stabilised after treatment with anticoagulants. The overall sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy of Q-SPECT/CT were 100% (95% CI, 79.41-100%), 78.57% (95% CI, 49.20-95.34%), 84.21% (95% CI, 66.41-93.57%), 100% and 90.00% (95% CI, 73.47-97.89%) respectively.

Conclusions

In the current COVID-19 pandemic, Q-SPECT/CT can be an alternative modality to detect pulmonary thromboembolic disease. Normal Q-SPECT/CT excludes pulmonary thromboembolic disease with high degree of certainty. However, false positive has been observed.

The Correlation Between the D-Dimer Values and Anatomical Distribution of Pulmonary Embolism

Background

Pulmonary Embolism (PE) represents a life-threatening medical emergency that, given the serious complications, requires urgent application of anticoagulant therapy. In addition to other factors that are taken into account when choosing a therapy for treatment of PE, the anatomical distribution of thrombi is also considered-whether it is a central, lobar, segmental or subsegmental PE. D-dimer is an intermediate product of degradation of fibrin molecules and its values in the plasma are increased in the case of PE, but also in other diseases.

Objective

To determine whether there is a difference in D-dimer values in subjects with different anatomical distribution of PE.

Methods

The study included 100 subjects with diagnosed PE by using MSCT and/or V/P SPECT and with measured values of D-dimer.

Results

Out of 100 subjects, PE was not diagnosed in 37 subjects, while 63 subjects PE was diagnosed. All subjects with diagnosed PE were divided into 3 groups regarding the anatomical localization of thrombus: lobar, segmental or subsegmental. Average D-dimer values were calculated for all 3 groups. Statistical analysis showed that there was no significant difference in D-dimer values between subjects with different anatomical distribution of PE.

Conclusion

There is no significant difference in D-dimer values between subjects with different anatomical distribution od PE-lobar, segmental and subsegmental PE.

Current Diagnosis and Management of Acute Pulmonary Embolism: A Strategy for General Practitioners in Emergency Department

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a disease with a relatively good prognosis when diagnosed and treated properly. This review aims to analyse available data and combine them into algorithms that physicians can use in the emergency department for quick decision-making in diagnosing and treating PE. The available data show that PE can be excluded through highly sensitive clinical decision rules, i.e. Pulmonary Embolism Rule-Out Criteria (PERC), Wells criteria, and Revised Geneva criteria, combined with D-dimer assessment. In cases where PE could not be excluded through the mentioned strategies, imaging modalities, such as compression ultrasonography (CUS), computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA), and planar ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) scan, are indicated for a definite diagnosis. Once a diagnosis has been made, treatment of PE depends on its mortality risk as patients are divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk cases. High-risk cases are treated for their hemodynamic instability, given parenteral or oral anticoagulant therapy, and are indicated for reperfusion therapy. Intermediate-risk PE is only given parenteral or oral anticoagulants and reperfusion is indicated when anticoagulants fail. Low-risk cases are given oral anticoagulants and based on the Hestia criteria, patients may be discharged and treated as outpatients.

Joint 2022 European Society of Thoracic Surgeons and The American Association for Thoracic Surgery guidelines for the prevention of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism in thoracic surgery

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), which includes deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is a potentially fatal but preventable postoperative complication. Thoracic oncology patients undergoing surgical resection, often after multimodality induction therapy, represent among the highest risk groups for postoperative VTE. Currently there are no VTE prophylaxis guidelines specific to these thoracic surgery patients. Evidenced-based recommendations will help clinicians manage and mitigate risk of VTE in the postoperative period and inform best practice.

OBJECTIVE

These joint evidence-based guidelines from The American Association for Thoracic Surgery and the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons aim to inform clinicians and patients in decisions about prophylaxis to prevent VTE in patients undergoing surgical resection for lung or esophageal cancer.

METHODS

The American Association for Thoracic Surgery and the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons formed a multidisciplinary guideline panel that included broad membership to minimize potential bias when formulating recommendations. The McMaster University GRADE Centre supported the guideline development process, including updating or performing systematic evidence reviews. The panel prioritized clinical questions and outcomes according to their importance for clinicians and patients. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used, including GRADE Evidence-to-Decision frameworks, which were subject to public comment.

RESULTS

The panel agreed on 24 recommendations focused on pharmacological and mechanical methods for prophylaxis in patients undergoing lobectomy and segmentectomy, pneumonectomy, and esophagectomy, as well as extended resections for lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The certainty of the supporting evidence for the majority of recommendations was judged as low or very low, largely due to a lack of direct evidence for thoracic surgery. The panel made conditional recommendations for use of parenteral anticoagulation for VTE prevention, in combination with mechanical methods, over no prophylaxis for cancer patients undergoing anatomic lung resection or esophagectomy. Other key recommendations include: conditional recommendations for using parenteral anticoagulants over direct oral anticoagulants, with use of direct oral anticoagulants suggested only in the context of clinical trials; conditional recommendation for using extended prophylaxis for 28 to 35 days over in-hospital prophylaxis only for patients at moderate or high risk of thrombosis; and conditional recommendations for VTE screening in patients undergoing pneumonectomy and esophagectomy. Future research priorities include the role of preoperative thromboprophylaxis and the role of risk stratification to guide use of extended prophylaxis. (J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2022;▪:1-31).

A 60-Year-Old Woman with a 6-Week History of Shortness of Breath and Intermittent Chest Pain Due to Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Disease Undetected by Computed Tomography Pulmonary Angiography (CTPA) and Diagnosed by Ventilation-Perfusion Imaging

BACKGROUND Chronic thromboembolic pulmonary disease (CTEPD) is the persistent occlusion of pulmonary arteries resulting from 1 or more thrombo-emboli. Its presentation is often non-specific, with exertional dyspnea and fatigue, yet if left undiagnosed risks of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension and right-sided cardiac failure can ensue. Computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) and ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) imaging are most commonly utilized for investigating CTEPD. This report is of a 60-year-old woman with a 6-week history of breathlessness and intermittent chest pain due to CTEPD, undetected by CTPA and diagnosed by V/Q imaging. CASE REPORT A 60-year-old woman presented with a 6-week history of breathlessness, intermittent chest pain, and reduced mobility. Her past medical history included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary sarcoidosis, and obesity. Screening tests for infective and ischemic cardiac etiologies were unremarkable. A calculated Wells score was 6, making CTEPD the main differential diagnosis, and she was commenced on therapeutic dose anticoagulation. A CTPA performed on day 2 of admission showed no evidence of acute thromboembolic pulmonary disease or CTEPD. Instead, V/Q scintigraphy on day 6 revealed a perfusion mismatch in the right lung apex, consistent with CTEPD. The patient improved clinically and was discharged on long-term apixaban. CONCLUSIONS A negative CTPA does not necessarily exclude CTEPD. The sensitivity of CTPA for CTEPD is lower than that of V/Q imaging, and can hence lead to false-negative results, as this case highlights. When there is a high clinical suspicion for CTEPD but a negative CTPA study, V/Q imaging should always be undertaken.

Chest CT Findings and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Trauma Patients-Is There a Prediction towards Higher Complication Rates?

Background: Polytrauma patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections may be associated with an increased complication rate. The main goal of this study was to analyze the clinical course of trauma patients with COVID infection and a positive CT finding. Methods: This was a retrospective in-hospital study. Polytrauma patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infections were included in our analysis. The outcome parameters were pulmonary complication during admission, pulmonary embolism, pleural effusion, pneumonia, mortality, length of stay and readmission < 30 days. Results: 48 patients were included in the study. Trauma patients in the age-adjusted matched-pair analysis with typical changes in SARS-CoV-2 infection in CT findings showed significantly more pulmonary complications in general and significantly more cases of pneumonia (complications: 56% vs. 11%, p = 0.046; pneumonia 44% vs. 0%, p = 0.023). In addition, the clinical course of polytrauma patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection showed a high rate of pulmonary complications in the inpatient course (53%). Conclusion: The results of our study show that the changes in the CT findings of trauma patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection are a good indicator of further inpatient outcomes. Similarly, polytrauma patients with a SARS-CoV-2 infection and positive CT findings are shown to have increased risk for pulmonary complications.

Thrombosis and thromboembolism: Brighton collaboration case definition and guidelines for data collection, analysis, and presentation of immunization safety data

This is a Brighton Collaboration case definition of thrombosis and thromboembolism to be used in the evaluation of adverse events following immunization, and for epidemiologic studies for the assessment of background incidence or hypothesis testing. The case definition was developed by a group of experts convened by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) in the context of active development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The case definition format of the Brighton Collaboration was followed to develop a consensus definition and defined levels of certainty, after an exhaustive review of the literature and expert consultation. The document underwent peer review by the Brighton Collaboration Network and by selected expert reviewers prior to submission.

Diagnostic accuracy of multiorgan point-of-care ultrasound compared with pulmonary computed tomographic angiogram in critically ill patients with suspected pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Critically ill patients have a higher incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) than non-critically ill patients, yet no diagnostic algorithm has been validated in this population, leading to the overuse of pulmonary artery computed tomographic angiogram (CTA). This study aimed to comparatively evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) combined with laboratory data versus CTA in predicting PE in critically ill patients.

METHODS

A prospective diagnostic accuracy study. Critically ill patients with suspected acute PE undergoing CTA were prospectively enrolled. Demographic and clinical data were collected from electronic medical records. Blood samples were collected, and the Wells and revised Geneva scores were calculated. Standardized multiorgan POCUS and CTA were performed. The discriminatory power of multiorgan POCUS combined with biochemical markers was tested using ROC curves, and multivariate analysis was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 88 patients were included, and 37 (42%) had PE. Multivariate analysis showed a relative risk (RR) of PE of 2.79 (95% CI, 1.61-4.84) for the presence of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction, of 2.54 (95% CI, 0.89-7.20) for D-dimer levels >1000 ng/mL, and of 1.69 (95% CI, 1.12-2.63) for the absence of an alternative diagnosis to PE on lung POCUS or chest radiograph. The combination with the highest diagnostic accuracy for PE included the following variables: 1- POCUS transthoracic echocardiography with evidence of RV dysfunction; 2- lung POCUS or chest radiograph without an alternative diagnosis to PE; and 3- plasma D-dimer levels >1000 ng/mL. Combining these three findings resulted in an area under the curve of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77-0.94), with 50% sensitivity and 96% specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiorgan POCUS combined with laboratory data has acceptable diagnostic accuracy for PE compared with CTA. The combined use of these methods might reduce CTA overuse in critically ill patients.

Acute Pulmonary Embolism: A Review

IMPORTANCE

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is characterized by occlusion of blood flow in a pulmonary artery, typically due to a thrombus that travels from a vein in a lower limb. The incidence of PE is approximately 60 to 120 per 100 000 people per year. Approximately 60 000 to 100 000 patients die from PE each year in the US.

OBSERVATIONS

PE should be considered in patients presenting with acute chest pain, shortness of breath, or syncope. The diagnosis is determined by chest imaging. In patients with a systolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, the following 3 steps can be used to evaluate a patient with possible PE: assessment of the clinical probability of PE, D-dimer testing if indicated, and chest imaging if indicated. The clinical probability of PE can be assessed using a structured score or using clinical gestalt. In patients with a probability of PE that is less than 15%, the presence of 8 clinical characteristics (age <50 years, heart rate <100/min, an oxygen saturation level of > 94%, no recent surgery or trauma, no prior venous thromboembolism event, no hemoptysis, no unilateral leg swelling, and no estrogen use) identifies patients at very low risk of PE in whom no further testing is needed. In patients with low or intermediate clinical probability, a D-dimer level of less than 500 ng/mL is associated with a posttest probability of PE less than 1.85%. In these patients, PE can be excluded without chest imaging. A further refinement of D-dimer threshold is possible in patients aged 50 years and older, and in patients with a low likelihood of PE. Patients with a high probability of PE (ie, >40% probability) should undergo chest imaging, and D-dimer testing is not necessary. In patients with PE and a systolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher, compared with heparin combined with a vitamin K antagonist such as warfarin followed by warfarin alone, direct oral anticoagulants such as apixaban, edoxaban, rivaroxaban, or dabigatran, are noninferior for treating PE and have a 0.6% lower rate of bleeding. In patients with PE and systolic blood pressure lower than 90 mm Hg, systemic thrombolysis is recommended and is associated with an 1.6% absolute reduction of mortality (from 3.9% to 2.3%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In the US, PE affects approximately 370 000 patients per year and may cause approximately 60 000 to 100 000 deaths per year. First-line therapy consists of direct oral anticoagulants such as apixaban, edoxaban, rivaroxaban, or dabigatran, with thrombolysis reserved for patients with systolic blood pressure lower than 90 mm Hg.

D‐dimer testing for early detection of venom‐induced consumption coagulopathy after snakebite in Australia ( ASP ‐29)

Objective

To assess the accuracy and marginal value of quantitative D‐dimer testing for diagnosing venom‐induced consumption coagulopathy (VICC) in people bitten by Australian snakes.

Design, setting

Analysis of data for suspected and confirmed cases of snakebite collected prospectively by the Australian Snakebite Project, 2005–2019, from 200 hospitals across Australia.

Participants

1363 patients for whom D‐dimer was quantitatively assessed within 24 hours of suspected or confirmed snakebite.

Main outcome measures

Diagnostic performance of quantitative D‐dimer testing for detecting systemic envenoming with VICC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC); optimal D‐dimer cut‐off value (maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity).

Results

D‐dimer values exceeded 2.5 mg/L within three hours of the bite for 95% of patients who developed VICC, and were lower than 2.5 mg/L for 95% of non‐envenomed patients up to six hours after snakebite. The AUC for diagnosing envenoming with VICC on the basis of quantitative D‐dimer testing within six hours of snakebite was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96–0.98; 944 patients). Diagnostic performance increased during the first three hours after snakebite; for quantitative D‐dimer testing at 2–6 hours, the AUC was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.99–1.0); with a cut‐off of 2.5 mg/L, sensitivity was 97.1% (95% CI, 95.0–98.3%) and specificity 99.0% (95% CI, 97.6–99.6%) for VICC. For 36 patients with normal international normalised ratio (INR) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) values 2–6 hours after snakebite, the AUC was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.93–1.0); with a cut‐off of 1.4 mg/L, sensitivity was 94% (95% CI, 82–99%) and specificity 96% (95% CI, 94–97%). In all but one of 84 patients who developed VICC‐related acute kidney injury, D‐dimer values exceeded 4 mg/L within 24 hours of the bite.

Conclusion

D‐dimer concentrations assessed 2–6 hours after snakebite, with a cut‐off value of 2.5 mg/L, could be useful for diagnosing envenoming with VICC.

GFAP and S100B: What You Always Wanted to Know and Never Dared to Ask

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major global health issue, with outcomes spanning from intracranial bleeding, debilitating sequelae, and invalidity with consequences for individuals, families, and healthcare systems. Early diagnosis of TBI by testing peripheral fluids such as blood or saliva has been the focus of many research efforts, leading to FDA approval for a bench-top assay for blood GFAP and UCH-L1 and a plasma point-of-care test for GFAP. The biomarker S100B has been included in clinical guidelines for mTBI (mTBI) in Europe. Despite these successes, several unresolved issues have been recognized, including the robustness of prior data, the presence of biomarkers in tissues beyond the central nervous system, and the time course of biomarkers in peripheral body fluids. In this review article, we present some of these issues and provide a viewpoint derived from an analysis of existing literature. We focus on two astrocytic proteins, S100B and GFAP, the most commonly employed biomarkers used in mTBI. We also offer recommendations that may translate into a broader acceptance of these clinical tools.

Diagnosing pulmonary thromboembolism: Concerns and controversies

Pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is an important cause of mortality/morbidity even today despite advancement in clinical understanding as well as diagnostic facilities. Clinical diagnosis of PTE is often challenging because of nonspecific sign/symptoms. Adherence to clinical decision-making protocols and appropriate use of diagnostic modalities like computed tomography pulmonary angiography can resolve the diagnostic dilemma in most cases and help in the overall management of PTE. This article deals with various concerns as well as controversies surrounding accurate diagnosis of PTE as on date.

Contemporary management of acute pulmonary embolism

This review examines the recent progress in the initial management of pulmonary embolism (PE). Diagnostic strategies allowing the safe decrease of imaging testing have been proposed. New modalities of catheter-based interventions have emerged for hemodynamically unstable PE patients. For normotensive PE patients, direct oral anticoagulant treatment has become the new norm and a large proportion of patients are eligible for home treatment.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of outcomes in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism

Prompt evaluation and therapeutic intervention of suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) are of paramount importance for improvement in outcomes. We systematically reviewed outcomes in patients with suspected PE, including mortality, incidence of recurrent PE, major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, and postthrombotic sequelae. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, and Embase for eligible studies, reference lists of relevant reviews, registered trials, and relevant conference proceedings. We included 22 studies with 15 865 patients. Among patients who were diagnosed with PE and discharged with anticoagulation, 3-month follow-up revealed that all-cause mortality was 5.69% (91/1599; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.56-6.83), mortality from PE was 1.19% (19/1597; 95% CI, 0.66-1.72), recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) occurred in 1.38% (22/1597; 95% CI: 0.81-1.95), and major bleeding occurred in 0.90% (2/221%; 95% CI, 0-2.15). In patients with a low pretest probability (PTP) and negative D-dimer, 3-month follow-up revealed mortality from PE was 0% (0/808) and incidence of VTE was 0.37% (4/1094; 95% CI: 0.007-0.72). In patients with intermediate PTP and negative D-dimer, 3-month follow-up revealed that mortality from PE was 0% (0/2747) and incidence of VTE was 0.46% (14/3015; 95% CI: 0.22-0.71). In patients with high PTP and negative computed tomography (CT) scan, 3-month follow-up revealed mortality from PE was 0% (0/651) and incidence of VTE was 0.84% (11/1302; 95% CI: 0.35-1.34). We further summarize outcomes evaluated by various diagnostic tests and diagnostic pathways (ie, D-dimer followed by CT scan).

Bayes' rule in diagnosis

Establishing an accurate diagnosis is crucial in everyday clinical practice. It forms the starting point for clinical decision-making, for instance regarding treatment options or further testing. In this context, clinicians have to deal with probabilities (instead of certainties) that are often hard to quantify. During the diagnostic process, clinicians move from the probability of disease before testing (prior or pretest probability) to the probability of disease after testing (posterior or posttest probability) based on the results of one or more diagnostic tests. This reasoning in probabilities is reflected by a statistical theorem that has an important application in diagnosis: Bayes' rule. A basic understanding of the use of Bayes' rule in diagnosis is pivotal for clinicians. This rule shows how both the prior probability (also called prevalence) and the measurement properties of diagnostic tests (sensitivity and specificity) are crucial determinants of the posterior probability of disease (predictive value), on the basis of which clinical decisions are made. This article provides a simple explanation of the interpretation and use of Bayes' rule in diagnosis.