Supported self-management for COPD: making progress, but there are still challenges

Living with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or type 2 diabetes in Greenland - a qualitative interpretive description study

Non-communicable diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) represent major challenges for health systems all over the world. In an interview study, we explored patient experiences and perspectives of being diagnosed and living with COPD or T2D in Greenland. Participants (n = 24) were selected by purposeful sampling and recruited by phone. We conducted individual semi-structured interviews at the National Hospital in Nuuk and the four regional hospitals. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using interpretive description. Three themes emerged: shock and shame on receiving the diagnosis, coping with a changed life, and varying needs for care and communication. We found that being diagnosed with COPD or T2D required a rapid change in the participants' everyday lives and lifestyle behaviours. Some self-managed their disease well and were able to transfer their knowledge and integrate it into their daily lives, while others struggled to make lifestyle changes. Additionally, living with COPD or T2D could be related to silence and shame. The findings contribute to a better understanding of living with COPD or T2D in the Arctic region and the development of future, culturally-adapted patient education initiatives.

A machine learning model for predicting acute exacerbation of in-home chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients

PURPOSE

This study utilized intelligent devices to remotely monitor patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), aiming to construct and evaluate machine learning (ML) models that predict the probability of acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD).

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with COPD Group C/D at our hospital between March 2019 and June 2021 were enrolled in this study. The diagnosis of COPD Group C/D and AECOPD was based on the GOLD 2018 guidelines. We developed a series of machine learning (ML)-based models, including XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, to predict AECOPD events. These models utilized data collected from portable spirometers and electronic stethoscopes within a five-day time window. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to assess the effectiveness of the models.

RESULTS

A total of 66 patients were enrolled in COPD groups C/D, with 32 in group C and 34 in group D. Using observational data within a five-day time window, the ML models effectively predict AECOPD events, achieving high AUC scores. Among these models, the CatBoost model exhibited superior performance, boasting the highest AUC score (0.9721, 95 % CI: 0.9623-0.9810). Notably, the boosting tree methods significantly outperformed the time-series based methods, thanks to our feature engineering efforts. A post-hoc analysis of the CatBoost model reveals that features extracted from the electronic stethoscope (e.g., max/min vibration energy) hold more importance than those from the portable spirometer.

CONCLUSIONS

The tree-based boosting models prove to be effective in predicting AECOPD events in our study. Consequently, these models have the potential to enhance remote monitoring, enable early risk assessment, and inform treatment decisions for homebound patients with chronic COPD.

Unintentional weight loss is reflected in worse one-year clinical outcomes among COPD outpatients

RATIONALE

Unintentional weight loss (UWL) is prevalent among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, little research has been done on UWL as an independent variable in terms of clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between BMI, UWL, and clinical outcome in terms of hospitalization, length of stay, exacerbations, mortality, and quality of life (QoL) within six months and one year in a hospital outpatient setting.

METHODS

A prospective single-center cohort study enrolled 200 patients from the COPD outpatient clinic between October 2020 and May 2021 at a Danish Hospital. At baseline, data was collected using patients' electronic journals and a quantitative questionnaire was gathered with a patient-reported UWL of 5% of body weight within three months. At six months and one-year follow-ups, data was collected using the patients' medical journals and a telephonic interview with the EQ-5D-5L and SARC-F questionnaire and the number of non-hospitalization exacerbations since inclusion. Data were analyzed using logistic and Cox hazard regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 187 patients were eligible for follow-up (mean age 69.2 years, 43.9% males, median BMI 26.8 kg/m2), and the prevalence of UWL was 13.4%. UWL was associated with an almost trifold risk of >five days stay (OR = 2.94, p = 0.021). Additionally, UWL was associated with a worse QoL. A higher risk of exacerbation was found in the underweight patients (OR = 4.94, p = 0.014). No significant difference in mortality was found.

CONCLUSION

UWL as a solitary factor is associated with increased hospital length of stay and a worse QoL. The results provide further evidence that implementation of regular screening for UWL in addition to BMI might be beneficial to include in international COPD guidelines for outpatient settings.

Developments in respiratory self-management interventions over the last two decades

This paper describes developments in the fields of asthma and COPD self-management interventions (SMIs) over the last two decades and discusses future directions. Evidence around SMIs has exponentially grown. Efficacy on group level is convincing and both asthma and COPD SMIs are currently recommended by respiratory guidelines. Core components of asthma SMIs are defined as education, action plans, and regular review, with some discussion about self-monitoring. Exacerbation action plans are defined as an integral part of COPD management. Patient's adherence to SMI's is however inadequate and significantly reducing the intervention's impact. Adherence could be improved by tailoring of SMIs to patients' needs, health beliefs, and capabilities; the use of shared decision making; and optimising the communication between patients and health care providers. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, digital health innovations have rapidly been introduced and expanded. Digital technology use may increase efficiency, flexibility, and efficacy of SMIs. Furthermore, artificial intelligence can be used to e.g., predict exacerbations in action plans. Research around digital health innovations to ensure evidence-based practice is of utmost importance. Current implementation of respiratory SMIs is not satisfactory. Implementation research should be used to generate further insights, with cost-effectiveness, policy (makers), and funding being significant determinants.

The Importance of Self-Management in the Context of Personalized Care in COPD

Despite current guidelines and decades of evidence on the benefits of a self-management approach, self-management of COPD remains relatively under-utilized in clinical care compared with other chronic diseases. However, self-management interventions can play a valuable role in supporting people with COPD to respond to changing symptoms, and thereby make appropriate decisions regarding the management of their own chronic condition. In this review, we discuss the history and evolution of the concept of self-management, assess current multidisciplinary support programs and clinical interactions designed to optimize self-management, and reflect on how effective these are in terms of clinical and humanistic outcomes. We also evaluate the mechanisms for encouraging change from protocol-based care towards a more personalized care approach, and discuss the role of digital self-management interventions and the importance of addressing health inequalities in COPD treatment, which have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting on the importance of self-management in the context of symptom monitoring and provision of educational support, including information from patient organizations and charities, we discuss the ideal components of a self-management plan for COPD and provide six key recommendations for its implementation: 1) better education for healthcare professionals on disease management and consultation skills; 2) new targets and priorities for patient-focused outcomes; 3) skills gap audits to identify barriers to self-management; 4) best practice sharing within primary care networks and ongoing professional development; 5) enhanced initial consultations to establish optimal self-management from the outset; and 6) negotiation and sharing of self-management plans at the point of diagnosis.

Patient and Health Care Provider Perspectives on Potential Preventability of Hospital Admission for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Qualitative Study

PURPOSE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a highly prevalent chronic disease partly characterised by the occurrence of acute exacerbations (AECOPD). The need for hospital admissions for COPD exacerbations could theoretically be decreased through timely and appropriate outpatient care or self-management. The aim of this study is to explore and compare patients' and health care providers' (HCP) perspectives on the potential preventability of COPD hospitalisations and to identify strategies to prevent unnecessary hospitalisations.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with patients admitted for an AECOPD (N = 11), HCPs on the respiratory ward (N = 11), and treating pulmonologists (N = 10). Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic content analysis.

RESULTS

Patient and HCP perspectives on the potential preventability of hospital admissions for AECOPD often conflict. The kappa coefficients were -0.18 [95% CI: -0.46-0.11] for patients and pulmonologists and -0.28 [95% CI: -0.80-0.21] for patients and HCPs, which indicates poor agreement. The kappa coefficient for pulmonologists and HCPs was 0.14 [95% CI: -0.13-0.41], which indicates slight agreement. Patient and HCP factors that could potentially prevent hospitalisation for AECOPD were identified, including timely calling for help, recognizing and acting on symptoms, and receiving instruction about COPD, including treatment and action plans.

CONCLUSION

Patients and their HCPs have different beliefs about the potential preventability of AECOPD hospitalisations. Most patients and HCPs mentioned factors that potentially could have led to a different outcome for the current AECOPD or that could impact the patient's health status and treatment of AECOPDs in the future. The factors identified in this study indicate that shared decision making is crucial to center the patient's perspective and individual needs and to provide timely treatment or prevention of AECOPD, thereby potentially decreasing hospital admission rates.

Strategies for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of COPD in low- and middle- income countries: the importance of primary care

INTRODUCTION

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a high proportion of the global morbidity and mortality caused by COPD. Increased exposure to risk factors throughout life (e.g. malnutrition, indoor and outdoor air pollution, and smoking) is associated with higher COPD prevalence in LMICs and the lack of treatment availability increases avoidable harm.

AREAS COVERED

This review covers the epidemiology and burden of COPD in LMICs, and challenges and recommendations related to health-care systems, prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Main challenges are related to under-resourced health-care systems (such as limited availability of spirometry, rehabilitation, and medicines). Lack of policy and practical local guidelines on COPD diagnosis and management further contribute to the low diagnostic and treatment rates. In the absence of, or limited number of respiratory specialists, primary care practitioners (general practitioners, nurses, pharmacists, physiotherapists, and community health workers) play an even more pivotal role in COPD management in LMICs.

EXPERT OPINION

Raising awareness on COPD, educating health-care workers, patients, and communities on cost-effective preventive measures as well as improving availability, affordability and proper use of diagnostic and pharmacological and non-pharmacologic treatment in primary care are the key interventions needed to improve COPD prevention, diagnosis, and care in LMICs.

Validation of COPDPredict™: Unique Combination of Remote Monitoring and Exacerbation Prediction to Support Preventative Management of COPD Exacerbations

Background

COPDPredict™ is a novel digital application dedicated to providing early warning of imminent COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) exacerbations for prompt intervention. Exacerbation prediction algorithms are based on a decision tree model constructed from percentage thresholds for disease state changes in patient-reported wellbeing, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Our study determined the validity of COPDPredict™ to identify exacerbations and provide timely notifications to patients and clinicians compared to clinician-defined episodes.

Methods

In a 6-month prospective observational study, 90 patients with COPD and frequent exacerbations registered wellbeing self-assessments daily using COPDPredict™ App and measured FEV₁ using connected spirometers. CRP was measured using finger-prick testing.

Results

Wellbeing self-assessment submissions showed 98% compliance. Ten patients did not experience exacerbations and treatment was unchanged. A total of 112 clinician-defined exacerbations were identified in the remaining 80 patients: 52 experienced 1 exacerbation; 28 had 2.2±0.4 episodes. Sixty-two patients self-managed using prescribed rescue medication. In 14 patients, exacerbations were more severe but responded to timely escalated treatment at home. Four patients attended the emergency room; with 2 hospitalised for <72 hours. Compared to the 6 months pre-COPDPredict™, hospitalisations were reduced by 98% (90 vs 2, p<0.001). COPDPredict™ identified COPD-related exacerbations at 7, 3 days (median, IQR) prior to clinician-defined episodes, sending appropriate alerts to patients and clinicians. Cross-tabulation demonstrated sensitivity of 97.9% (95% CI 95.7-99.2), specificity of 84.0% (95% CI 82.6-85.3), positive and negative predictive value of 38.4% (95% CI 36.4-40.4) and 99.8% (95% CI 99.5-99.9), respectively.

Conclusion

High sensitivity indicates that if there is an exacerbation, COPDPredict™ informs patients and clinicians accurately. The high negative predictive value implies that when an exacerbation is not indicated by COPDPredict™, risk of an exacerbation is low. Thus, COPDPredict™ provides safe, personalised, preventative care for patients with COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - diagnosis and management of stable disease; a personalized approach to care, using the treatable traits concept based on clinical phenotypes. Position paper of the Czech Pneumological and Phthisiological Society

This position paper has been drafted by experts from the Czech national board of diseases with bronchial obstruction, of the Czech Pneumological and Phthisiological Society. The statements and recommendations are based on both the results of randomized controlled trials and data from cross-sectional and prospective real-life studies to ensure they are as close as possible to the context of daily clinical practice and the current health care system of the Czech Republic. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a preventable and treatable heterogeneous syndrome with a number of pulmonary and extrapulmonary clinical features and concomitant chronic diseases. The disease is associated with significant mortality, morbidity and reduced quality of life. The main characteristics include persistent respiratory symptoms and only partially reversible airflow obstruction developing due to an abnormal inflammatory response of the lungs to noxious particles and gases. Oxidative stress, protease-antiprotease imbalance and increased numbers of pro-inflammatory cells (mainly neutrophils) are the main drivers of primarily non-infectious inflammation in COPD. Besides smoking, household air pollution, occupational exposure, low birth weight, frequent respiratory infections during childhood and also genetic factors are important risk factors of COPD development. Progressive airflow limitation and airway remodelling leads to air trapping, static and dynamic hyperinflation, gas exchange abnormalities and decreased exercise capacity. Various features of the disease are expressed unequally in individual patients, resulting in various types of disease presentation, emerging as the "clinical phenotypes" (for specific clinical characteristics) and "treatable traits" (for treatable characteristics) concept. The estimated prevalence of COPD in Czechia is around 6.7% with 3,200-3,500 deaths reported annually. The elementary requirements for diagnosis of COPD are spirometric confirmation of post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD FEV₁/VCmax <70%) and respiratory symptoms assessement (dyspnoea, exercise limitation, cough and/or sputum production. In order to establish definite COPD diagnosis, a five-step evaluation should be performed, including: 1/ inhalation risk assessment, 2/ symptoms evaluation, 3/ lung function tests, 4/ laboratory tests and 5/ imaging. At the same time, all alternative diagnoses should be excluded. For disease classification, this position paper uses both GOLD stages (1 to 4), GOLD groups (A to D) and evaluation of clinical phenotype(s). Prognosis assessment should be done in each patient. For this purpose, we recommend the use of the BODE or the CADOT index. Six elementary clinical phenotypes are recognized, including chronic bronchitis, frequent exacerbator, emphysematous, asthma/COPD overlap (ACO), bronchiectases with COPD overlap (BCO) and pulmonary cachexia. In our concept, all of these clinical phenotypes are also considered independent treatable traits. For each treatable trait, specific pharmacological and non-pharmacological therapies are defined in this document. The coincidence of two or more clinical phenotypes (i.e., treatable traits) may occur in a single individual, giving the opportunity of fully individualized, phenotype-specific treatment. Treatment of COPD should reflect the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease and be tailored to individual patients. Major goals of COPD treatment are symptom reduction and decreased exacerbation risk. Treatment strategy is divided into five strata: risk elimination, basic treatment, phenotype-specific treatment, treatment of respiratory failure and palliative care, and treatment of comorbidities. Risk elimination includes interventions against tobacco smoking and environmental/occupational exposures. Basic treatment is based on bronchodilator therapy, pulmonary rehabilitation, vaccination, care for appropriate nutrition, inhalation training, education and psychosocial support. Adequate phenotype-specific treatment varies phenotype by phenotype, including more than ten different pharmacological and non-pharmacological strategies. If more than one clinical phenotype is present, treatment strategy should follow the expression of each phenotypic label separately. In such patients, multicomponental therapeutic regimens are needed, resulting in fully individualized care. In the future, stronger measures against smoking, improvements in occupational and environmental health, early diagnosis strategies, as well as biomarker identification for patients responsive to specific treatments are warranted. New classes of treatment (inhaled PDE3/4 inhibitors, single molecule dual bronchodilators, anti-inflammatory drugs, gene editing molecules or new bronchoscopic procedures) are expected to enter the clinical practice in a very few years.

The impact of a personalised action plan delivered at discharge to patients with COPD on readmissions: a pilot study

Background

Self‐management interventions in COPD, including action plans, have the potential to increase quality of life and to reduce respiratory‐related hospitalisations. However, knowledge is still sparse of the effectiveness of a personally tailored action plan introduced at or right after discharge from hospital.

Aim

This pilot study aimed to test whether a personalised, stepwise action plan supported with a short instruction provided at or postdischarge after an acute exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admission as an addition to usual care reduces readmissions and symptom burden, including anxiety and depression levels at 3‐month follow‐up.

Methods

The study was carried out in a randomised controlled design with follow‐up after 3 months. In all, 75 participants were randomly assigned to either an intervention group that received an action plan, including the COPD Assessment Test (CAT), or to a control group that received usual care. The incidence of COPD‐related readmissions was measured as the primary outcome.

Results

Compared to the control group, the action plan group significantly reduced the incidence of readmissions. The action plan group showed a trend towards a significant decrease in HADS‐depression, but none in HADS‐anxiety. Significant improvements in CAT scores were observed for the participants in the intervention group. Only inferior minor differences were found in use of inhalation therapy.

Conclusions

A personally tailored action plan introduced at or postdischarge combined with follow‐up support is an effective self‐management tool to support recovery and to reduce unnecessary readmissions. In future follow‐up care, the healthcare professional must initiate the action plan at discharge and immediately after having the opportunity to follow the patient at home. This might require healthcare professionals working across healthcare sectors, who support patients until they have the needed confidence and competence in using the plan.

SERIES: eHealth in primary care. Part 1: Concepts, conditions and challenges

Primary care is challenged to provide high quality, accessible and affordable care for an increasingly ageing, complex, and multimorbid population. To counter these challenges, primary care professionals need to take up new and innovative practices, including eHealth. eHealth applications hold the promise to overcome some difficulties encountered in the care of people with complex medical and social needs in primary care. However, many unanswered questions regarding (cost) effectiveness, integration with healthcare, and acceptability to patients, caregivers, and professionals remain to be elucidated. What conditions need to be met? What challenges need to be overcome? What downsides must be dealt with? This first paper in a series on eHealth in primary care introduces basic concepts and examines opportunities for the uptake of eHealth in primary care. We illustrate that although the potential of eHealth in primary care is high, several conditions need to be met to ensure that safe and high-quality eHealth is developed for and implemented in primary care. eHealth research needs to be optimized; ensuring evidence-based eHealth is available. Blended care, i.e. combining face-to-face care with remote options, personalized to the individual patient should be considered. Stakeholders need to be involved in the development and implementation of eHealth via co-creation processes, and design should be mindful of vulnerable groups and eHealth illiteracy. Furthermore, a global perspective on eHealth should be adopted, and eHealth ethics, patients’ safety and privacy considered.

The Self-Care in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Inventory: Development and Psychometric Evaluation

This study developed two instruments, the Self-Care in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Inventory (SC-COPDI) and the COPD-Self-Care Self-Efficacy Scale (SCES), and tested their psychometric properties on a convenience sample of 498 patients from Northern, Central, and Southern Italy. First, the domains and the items of the SC-SCOPDI were generated based on the middle-range theory of self-care of chronic illness, comprising the dimensions of self-care maintenance, self-care monitoring, and self-care management, and the SCES-COPD was developed accordingly. Second, we assessed the content validity of each scale. Third, we conducted a multicenter cross-sectional study to test their structural validity, convergent and discriminative validity, internal consistency, and test–retest reliability. The theoretical dimensions of the two instruments were confirmed through confirmatory factor analysis. Convergent validity was demonstrated by the correlation among the three self-care scales and the Self-Efficacy Scale, and discriminative validity by higher self-care scale scores in individuals with greater COPD severity and poorer health status. The global reliability index ranged from .78 to .92 for all scales. The intraclass correlation coefficients were higher than .70. Further studies are needed to confirm the psychometric properties of the two instruments in different COPD populations and countries to extend their use in clinical practice.

Effectiveness of nursing interventions for breathlessness in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To critically review and synthesize the findings of studies that evaluated the effectiveness of nursing interventions for improving breathlessness in adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews of nursing interventions for breathlessness in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have not been specifically addressed.

DESIGN

Systematic review with meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic search of Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Embase was performed for studies published between January 2000 and June 2017.

REVIEW METHODS

Risk of bias, data extraction and meta-analysis were conducted using Cochrane methodology. The quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Twenty papers were included. A meta-analysis of interventions performed at home, including two trials, showed a significant effect in favour of experimental groups for the symptom score of the St. George Respiratory Questionnaire compared with controls. A meta-analysis of interventions performed in clinics with home follow-up showed a significant effect in favour of experimental groups for the mastery and fatigue scores of the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire compared with controls. In this category of intervention, an additional meta-analysis showed a significant effect in favour of experimental groups for the symptom, activity and total scores of the St. George Respiratory Questionnaire compared with controls. The quality of evidence was assessed to be very low to moderate.

CONCLUSION

The results are equivocal as to whether nursing interventions performed at home and nursing interventions performed in hospital with follow-up improve breathlessness in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Continuous remote monitoring of COPD patients-justification and explanation of the requirements and a survey of the available technologies

Remote patient monitoring should reduce mortality rates, improve care, and reduce costs. We present an overview of the available technologies for the remote monitoring of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, together with the most important medical information regarding COPD in a language that is adapted for engineers. Our aim is to bridge the gap between the technical and medical worlds and to facilitate and motivate future research in the field. We also present a justification, motivation, and explanation of how to monitor the most important parameters for COPD patients, together with pointers for the challenges that remain. Additionally, we propose and justify the importance of electrocardiograms (ECGs) and the arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure (PaCO2) as two crucial physiological parameters that have not been used so far to any great extent in the monitoring of COPD patients. We cover four possibilities for the remote monitoring of COPD patients: continuous monitoring during normal daily activities for the prediction and early detection of exacerbations and life-threatening events, monitoring during the home treatment of mild exacerbations, monitoring oxygen therapy applications, and monitoring exercise. We also present and discuss the current approaches to decision support at remote locations and list the normal and pathological values/ranges for all the relevant physiological parameters. The paper concludes with our insights into the future developments and remaining challenges for improvements to continuous remote monitoring systems. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

Exacerbations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Identification and Prediction Using a Digital Health System

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive, chronic respiratory disease with a significant socioeconomic burden. Exacerbations, the sudden and sustained worsening of symptoms, can lead to hospitalization and reduce quality of life. Major limitations of previous telemonitoring interventions for COPD include low compliance, lack of consensus on what constitutes an exacerbation, limited numbers of patients, and short monitoring periods. We developed a telemonitoring system based on a digital health platform that was used to collect data from the 1-year EDGE (Self Management and Support Programme) COPD clinical trial aiming at daily monitoring in a heterogeneous group of patients with moderate to severe COPD.

Objective

The objectives of the study were as follows: first, to develop a systematic and reproducible approach to exacerbation identification and to track the progression of patient condition during remote monitoring; and second, to develop a robust algorithm able to predict COPD exacerbation, based on vital signs acquired from a pulse oximeter.

Methods

We used data from 110 patients, with a combined monitoring period of more than 35,000 days. We propose a finite-state machine–based approach for modeling COPD exacerbation to gain a deeper insight into COPD patient condition during home monitoring to take account of the time course of symptoms. A robust algorithm based on short-period trend analysis and logistic regression using vital signs derived from a pulse oximeter is also developed to predict exacerbations.

Results

On the basis of 27,260 sessions recorded during the clinical trial (average usage of 5.3 times per week for 12 months), there were 361 exacerbation events. There was considerable variation in the length of exacerbation events, with a mean length of 8.8 days. The mean value of oxygen saturation was lower, and both the pulse rate and respiratory rate were higher before an impending exacerbation episode, compared with stable periods. On the basis of the classifier developed in this work, prediction of COPD exacerbation episodes with 60%-80% sensitivity will result in 68%-36% specificity.

Conclusions

All 3 vital signs acquired from a pulse oximeter (pulse rate, oxygen saturation, and respiratory rate) are predictive of COPD exacerbation events, with oxygen saturation being the most predictive, followed by respiratory rate and pulse rate. Combination of these vital signs with a robust algorithm based on machine learning leads to further improvement in positive predictive accuracy.

Trial Registration

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 40367841; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN40367841 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6olpMWNpc)