Combining pulmonary and cardiac computed tomography biomarkers for disease-specific risk modelling in lung cancer screening

Long-term outcomes of lung cancer screening in males and females

BACKGROUND

This study explored female and male overall mortality and lung cancer (LC) survival in two LC screening (LCS) populations, focusing on the predictive value of coronary artery calcification (CAC) at baseline low-dose computed tomography (LDCT).

METHODS

This retrospective study analysed data of 6495 heavy smokers enrolled in the MILD and BioMILD LCS trials between 2005 and 2016. The primary objective of the study was to assess sex differences in all-cause mortality and LC survival. CAC scores were automatically calculated on LDCT images by a validated artificial intelligence (AI) software. Sex differences in 12-year cause-specific mortality rates were stratified by age, pack-years and CAC score.

RESULTS

The study included 2368 females and 4127 males. The 12-year all-cause mortality rates were 4.1 % in females and 7.7 % in males (p < 0.0001), and median CAC score was 8.7 vs. 41 respectively (p < 0.0001). All-cause mortality increased with rising CAC scores (log-rank test, p < 0.0001) for both sexes. Although LC incidence was not different between the two sexes, females had lower rates of 12-year LC mortality (1.0 % vs. 1.9 %, p = 0.0052), and better LC survival from diagnosis (72.3 % vs. 51.7 %; p = 0.0005), with a similar proportion of stage I (58.1 % vs. 51.2 %, p = 0.2782).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that female LCS participants had lower rates of all-cause mortality at 12 years and better LC survival than their male counterparts, with similar LC incidence rates and stage at diagnosis. The lower CAC burden observed in women at all ages might contribute to explain their lower rates of all-cause mortality and better LC survival.

ERS/ESTS/ESTRO/ESR/ESTI/EFOMP statement on management of incidental findings from low dose CT screening for lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Screening for lung cancer with low radiation dose computed tomography has a strong evidence base, is being introduced in several European countries and is recommended as a new targeted cancer screening programme. The imperative now is to ensure that implementation follows an evidence-based process that will ensure clinical and cost effectiveness. This European Respiratory Society (ERS) task force was formed to provide an expert consensus for the management of incidental findings which can be adapted and followed during implementation.

METHODS

A multi-European society collaborative group was convened. 23 topics were identified, primarily from an ERS statement on lung cancer screening, and a systematic review of the literature was conducted according to ERS standards. Initial review of abstracts was completed and full text was provided to members of the group for each topic. Sections were edited and the final document approved by all members and the ERS Science Council.

RESULTS

Nine topics considered most important and frequent were reviewed as standalone topics (interstitial lung abnormalities, emphysema, bronchiectasis, consolidation, coronary calcification, aortic valve disease, mediastinal mass, mediastinal lymph nodes and thyroid abnormalities). Other topics considered of lower importance or infrequent were grouped into generic categories, suitable for general statements.

CONCLUSIONS

This European collaborative group has produced an incidental findings statement that can be followed during lung cancer screening. It will ensure that an evidence-based approach is used for reporting and managing incidental findings, which will mean that harms are minimised and any programme is as cost-effective as possible.

Automated Coronary Artery Calcium and Quantitative Emphysema in Lung Cancer Screening: Association With Mortality, Lung Cancer Incidence, and Airflow Obstruction

PURPOSE

To assess automated coronary artery calcium (CAC) and quantitative emphysema (percentage of low attenuation areas [%LAA]) for predicting mortality and lung cancer (LC) incidence in LC screening. To explore correlations between %LAA, CAC, and forced expiratory value in 1 second (FEV 1 ) and the discriminative ability of %LAA for airflow obstruction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Baseline low-dose computed tomography scans of the BioMILD trial were analyzed using an artificial intelligence software. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to estimate the predictive value of %LAA and CAC. Harrell C -statistic and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) were reported for 3 nested models (Model survey : age, sex, pack-years; Model survey-LDCT : Model survey plus %LAA plus CAC; Model final : Model survey-LDCT plus selected confounders). The correlations between %LAA, CAC, and FEV 1 and the discriminative ability of %LAA for airflow obstruction were tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient and AUC-receiver operating characteristic curve, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 4098 volunteers were enrolled. %LAA and CAC independently predicted 6-year all-cause (Model final hazard ratio [HR], 1.14 per %LAA interquartile range [IQR] increase [95% CI, 1.05-1.23], 2.13 for CAC ≥400 [95% CI, 1.36-3.28]), noncancer (Model final HR, 1.25 per %LAA IQR increase [95% CI, 1.11-1.37], 3.22 for CAC ≥400 [95%CI, 1.62-6.39]), and cardiovascular (Model final HR, 1.25 per %LAA IQR increase [95% CI, 1.00-1.46], 4.66 for CAC ≥400, [95% CI, 1.80-12.58]) mortality, with an increase in concordance probability in Model survey-LDCT compared with Model survey ( P <0.05). No significant association with LC incidence was found after adjustments. Both biomarkers negatively correlated with FEV 1 ( P <0.01). %LAA identified airflow obstruction with a moderate discriminative ability (AUC, 0.738).

CONCLUSIONS

Automated CAC and %LAA added prognostic information to age, sex, and pack-years for predicting mortality but not LC incidence in an LC screening setting. Both biomarkers negatively correlated with FEV 1 , with %LAA enabling the identification of airflow obstruction with moderate discriminative ability.

Pulmonary emphysema and coronary artery calcifications at baseline LDCT and long-term mortality in smokers and former smokers of the ITALUNG screening trial

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), lung cancer (LC), and respiratory diseases are main causes of death in smokers and former smokers undergoing low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for LC screening. We assessed whether quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes at baseline LDCT has a predictive value concerning long-term mortality.

METHODS

In this longitudinal study, we assessed pulmonary emphysematous changes with densitometry (volume corrected relative area below - 950 Hounsfield units) and coronary artery calcifications (CAC) with a 0-3 visual scale in baseline LDCT of 524 participants in the ITALUNG trial and analyzed their association with mortality after 13.6 years of follow-up using conventional statistics and a machine learning approach.

RESULTS

Pulmonary emphysematous changes were present in 32.3% of subjects and were mild (6% ≤ RA950 ≤ 9%) in 14.9% and moderate-severe (RA950 > 9%) in 17.4%. CAC were present in 67% of subjects (mild in 34.7%, moderate-severe in 32.2%). In the follow-up, 81 (15.4%) subjects died (20 of LC, 28 of other cancers, 15 of CVD, 4 of respiratory disease, and 14 of other conditions). After adjusting for age, sex, smoking history, and CAC, moderate-severe emphysema was significantly associated with overall (OR 2.22; 95CI 1.34-3.70) and CVD (OR 3.66; 95CI 1.21-11.04) mortality. Machine learning showed that RA950 was the best single feature predictive of overall and CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate-severe pulmonary emphysematous changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and CVD mortality in subjects participating in LC screening and should be incorporated in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile.

KEY POINTS

• Densitometry allows quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes in low-dose CT examinations for lung cancer screening. • Emphysematous lung density changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and cardio-vascular disease mortality in smokers and former smokers undergoing screening. • Emphysematous changes quantification should be included in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile.

Low-dose CT for lung cancer screening: position paper from the Italian college of thoracic radiology

Smoking is the main risk factor for lung cancer (LC), which is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Independent randomized controlled trials, governmental and inter-governmental task forces, and meta-analyses established that LC screening (LCS) with chest low dose computed tomography (LDCT) decreases the mortality of LC in smokers and former smokers, compared to no-screening, especially in women. Accordingly, several Italian initiatives are offering LCS by LDCT and smoking cessation to about 10,000 high-risk subjects, supported by Private or Public Health Institutions, envisaging a possible population-based screening program. Because LDCT is the backbone of LCS, Italian radiologists with LCS expertise are presenting this position paper that encompasses recommendations for LDCT scan protocol and its reading. Moreover, fundamentals for classification of lung nodules and other findings at LDCT test are detailed along with international guidelines, from the European Society of Thoracic Imaging, the British Thoracic Society, and the American College of Radiology, for their reporting and management in LCS. The Italian College of Thoracic Radiologists produced this document to provide the basics for radiologists who plan to set up or to be involved in LCS, thus fostering homogenous evidence-based approach to the LDCT test over the Italian territory and warrant comparison and analyses throughout National and International practices.

Scan-based competing death risk model for reevaluating lung cancer computed tomography screening eligibility

PURPOSE

A baseline CT scan for lung cancer (LC) screening may reveal information indicating that certain LC screening participants can be screened less, and instead require dedicated early cardiac and respiratory clinical input. We aimed to develop and validate competing death (CD) risk models using CT information to identify participants with a low LC and a high CD risk.

METHODS

Participant demographics and quantitative CT measures of LC, cardiovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were considered for deriving a logistic regression model for predicting five-year CD risk using a sample from the National Lung Screening Trial (n=15 000). Multicentric Italian Lung Detection data was used to perform external validation (n=2287).

RESULTS

Our final CD model outperformed an external pre-scan model (CDRAT) in both the derivation (Area under the curve=0.744 [95% confidence interval=0.727 to 0.761] and 0.677 [0.658 to 0.695], respectively) and validation cohorts (0.744 [0.652 to 0.835] and 0.725 [0.633 to 0.816], respectively). By also taking LC incidence risk into consideration, we suggested a risk threshold where a subgroup (6258/23 096, 27%) was identified with a number needed to screen to detect one LC of 216 (versus 23 in the remainder of the cohort) and ratio of 5.41 CDs per LC case (versus 0.88). The respective values in the validation cohort subgroup (774/2287, 34%) were 129 (versus 29) and 1.67 (versus 0.43).

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluating both LC and CD risks post-scan may improve the efficiency of LC screening and facilitate the initiation of multidisciplinary trajectories among certain participants.

CT-Detected Subsolid Nodules: A Predictor of Lung Cancer Development at Another Location?

The purpose of this case-cohort study was to investigate whether the frequency and computed tomography (CT) features of pulmonary nodules posed a risk for the future development of lung cancer (LC) at a different location. Patients scanned between 2004 and 2012 at two Dutch academic hospitals were cross-linked with the Dutch Cancer Registry. All patients who were diagnosed with LC by 2014 and a random selection of LC-free patients were considered. LC patients who were determined to be LC-free at the time of the scan and all LC-free patients with an adequate scan were included. The nodule count and types (solid, part-solid, ground-glass, and perifissural) were recorded per scan. Age, sex, and other CT measures were included to control for confounding factors. The cohort included 163 LC patients and 1178 LC-free patients. Cox regression revealed that the number of ground-glass nodules and part-solid nodules present were positively correlated to future LC risk. The area under the receiver operating curve of parsimonious models with and without nodule type information were 0.827 and 0.802, respectively. The presence of subsolid nodules in a clinical setting may be a risk factor for future LC development in another pulmonary location in a dose-dependent manner. Replication of the results in screening cohorts is required for maximum utility of these findings.