Du M, Chase M, Oguz M, Davies G. State transition model: vorapaxar added to standard antiplatelet therapy to prevent thrombosis post myocardial infarction or peripheral artery disease.
Curr Med Res Opin 2017;
33:1535-1543. [PMID:
28277861 DOI:
10.1080/03007995.2017.1301902]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To evaluate long-term health benefits and risks of adding vorapaxar (VOR) to the standard care antiplatelet therapy (SC) of aspirin and/or clopidogrel, among a population with a recent myocardial infarction (MI) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD).
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
In a state-transition model, patients transition between health states (event-free, recurrent MI, stroke, death), while at risk of experiencing non-transition-related revascularization and non-fatal bleeding events. Risk equations developed from the TRA 2°P-TIMI 50 trial's patient-level data were used to predict cardiovascular (CV) outcomes over longer time horizons. Additional sources, including trials and US-based observational studies, informed the inputs for short-term CV risk, non-CV death, and health-related quality of life. Survival and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon, discounted at 3% per year.
RESULTS
Within a cohort of 7361 patients with recent MI and/or PAD, VOR + SC relative to SC alone yielded 176 fewer CV events (MIs, strokes, or CV deaths), but 27 more major bleeding events. VOR + SC was associated with increased life expectancy and health benefits (19.93 undiscounted life-years [LYs], 9.57 discounted QALYs vs. 19.61 undiscounted LYs, 9.41 discounted QALYs). The results were most sensitive to scenarios varying time of vorapaxar initiation, and the assumptions in the 90 day period post-MI. Additional analyses showed that add-on vorapaxar provides consistent incremental benefits in high-risk subgroups.
CONCLUSION
This study contributes to the growing literature on secondary prevention add-on therapy, as results from these modeling analyses suggest that adding vorapaxar to SC for patients at high atherothrombotic risk can provide long-term health benefits.
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