In silico investigation into dendritic cell regulation of CD8Treg mediated killing of Th1 cells in murine experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis

Trustworthy agent-based simulation: the case for domain-specific modelling languages

Simulation is a key tool for researching complex system behaviour. Agent-based simulation has been applied across domains, such as biology, health, economics and urban sciences. However, engineering robust, efficient, maintainable, and reliable agent-based simulations is challenging. We present a vision for engineering agent simulations comprising a family of domain-specific modelling languages (DSMLs) that integrates core software engineering, validation and simulation experimentation. We relate the vision to examples of principled simulation, to show how the DSMLs would improve robustness, efficiency, and maintainability of simulations. Focusing on how to demonstrate the fitness for purpose of a simulator, the envisaged approach supports bi-directional transparency and traceability between the original domain understanding to the implementation, interpretation of results and evaluation of hypotheses.

Strategies for calibrating models of biology

Computational and mathematical modelling has become a valuable tool for investigating biological systems. Modelling enables prediction of how biological components interact to deliver system-level properties and extrapolation of biological system performance to contexts and experimental conditions where this is unknown. A model's value hinges on knowing that it faithfully represents the biology under the contexts of use, or clearly ascertaining otherwise and thus motivating further model refinement. These qualities are evaluated through calibration, typically formulated as identifying model parameter values that align model and biological behaviours as measured through a metric applied to both. Calibration is critical to modelling but is often underappreciated. A failure to appropriately calibrate risks unrepresentative models that generate erroneous insights. Here, we review a suite of strategies to more rigorously challenge a model's representation of a biological system. All are motivated by features of biological systems, and illustrative examples are drawn from the modelling literature. We examine the calibration of a model against distributions of biological behaviours or outcomes, not only average values. We argue for calibration even where model parameter values are experimentally ascertained. We explore how single metrics can be non-distinguishing for complex systems, with multiple-component dynamic and interaction configurations giving rise to the same metric output. Under these conditions, calibration is insufficiently constraining and the model non-identifiable: multiple solutions to the calibration problem exist. We draw an analogy to curve fitting and argue that calibrating a biological model against a single experiment or context is akin to curve fitting against a single data point. Though useful for communicating model results, we explore how metrics that quantify heavily emergent properties may not be suitable for use in calibration. Lastly, we consider the role of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in calibration and the interpretation of model results. Our goal in this manuscript is to encourage a deeper consideration of calibration, and how to increase its capacity to either deliver faithful models or demonstrate them otherwise.

Automated multi-objective calibration of biological agent-based simulations

Computational agent-based simulation (ABS) is increasingly used to complement laboratory techniques in advancing our understanding of biological systems. Calibration, the identification of parameter values that align simulation with biological behaviours, becomes challenging as increasingly complex biological domains are simulated. Complex domains cannot be characterized by single metrics alone, rendering simulation calibration a fundamentally multi-metric optimization problem that typical calibration techniques cannot handle. Yet calibration is an essential activity in simulation-based science; the baseline calibration forms a control for subsequent experimentation and hence is fundamental in the interpretation of results. Here, we develop and showcase a method, built around multi-objective optimization, for calibrating ABSs against complex target behaviours requiring several metrics (termed objectives) to characterize. Multi-objective calibration (MOC) delivers those sets of parameter values representing optimal trade-offs in simulation performance against each metric, in the form of a Pareto front. We use MOC to calibrate a well-understood immunological simulation against both established a priori and previously unestablished target behaviours. Furthermore, we show that simulation-borne conclusions are broadly, but not entirely, robust to adopting baseline parameter values from different extremes of the Pareto front, highlighting the importance of MOC's identification of numerous calibration solutions. We devise a method for detecting overfitting in a multi-objective context, not previously possible, used to save computational effort by terminating MOC when no improved solutions will be found. MOC can significantly impact biological simulation, adding rigour to and speeding up an otherwise time-consuming calibration process and highlighting inappropriate biological capture by simulations that cannot be well calibrated. As such, it produces more accurate simulations that generate more informative biological predictions.

Modelling biological behaviours with the unified modelling language: an immunological case study and critique

We present a framework to assist the diagrammatic modelling of complex biological systems using the unified modelling language (UML). The framework comprises three levels of modelling, ranging in scope from the dynamics of individual model entities to system-level emergent properties. By way of an immunological case study of the mouse disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show how the framework can be used to produce models that capture and communicate the biological system, detailing how biological entities, interactions and behaviours lead to higher-level emergent properties observed in the real world. We demonstrate how the UML can be successfully applied within our framework, and provide a critique of UML's ability to capture concepts fundamental to immunology and biology more generally. We show how specialized, well-explained diagrams with less formal semantics can be used where no suitable UML formalism exists. We highlight UML's lack of expressive ability concerning cyclic feedbacks in cellular networks, and the compounding concurrency arising from huge numbers of stochastic, interacting agents. To compensate for this, we propose several additional relationships for expressing these concepts in UML's activity diagram. We also demonstrate the ambiguous nature of class diagrams when applied to complex biology, and question their utility in modelling such dynamic systems. Models created through our framework are non-executable, and expressly free of simulation implementation concerns. They are a valuable complement and precursor to simulation specifications and implementations, focusing purely on thoroughly exploring the biology, recording hypotheses and assumptions, and serve as a communication medium detailing exactly how a simulation relates to the real biology.

Toward understanding the role of aryl hydrocarbon receptor in the immune system: current progress and future trends

The immune system is regulated by distinct signaling pathways that control the development and function of the immune cells. Accumulating evidence suggest that ligation of aryl hydrocarbon receptor (Ahr), an environmentally responsive transcription factor, results in multiple cross talks that are capable of modulating these pathways and their downstream responsive genes. Most of the immune cells respond to such modulation, and many inflammatory response-related genes contain multiple xenobiotic-responsive elements (XREs) boxes upstream. Active research efforts have investigated the physiological role of Ahr in inflammation and autoimmunity using different animal models. Recently formed paradigm has shown that activation of Ahr by 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) or 3,3′-diindolylmethane (DIM) prompts the differentiation of CD4⁺Foxp3⁺ regulatory T cells (Tregs) and inhibits T helper (Th)-17 suggesting that Ahr is an innovative therapeutic strategy for autoimmune inflammation. These promising findings generate a basis for future clinical practices in humans. This review addresses the current knowledge on the role of Ahr in different immune cell compartments, with a particular focus on inflammation and autoimmunity.

Determining disease intervention strategies using spatially resolved simulations

Predicting efficacy and optimal drug delivery strategies for small molecule and biological therapeutics is challenging due to the complex interactions between diverse cell types in different tissues that determine disease outcome. Here we present a new methodology to simulate inflammatory disease manifestation and test potential intervention strategies in silico using agent-based computational models. Simulations created using this methodology have explicit spatial and temporal representations, and capture the heterogeneous and stochastic cellular behaviours that lead to emergence of pathology or disease resolution. To demonstrate this methodology we have simulated the prototypic murine T cell-mediated autoimmune disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, a mouse model of multiple sclerosis. In the simulation immune cell dynamics, neuronal damage and tissue specific pathology emerge, closely resembling behaviour found in the murine model. Using the calibrated simulation we have analysed how changes in the timing and efficacy of T cell receptor signalling inhibition leads to either disease exacerbation or resolution. The technology described is a powerful new method to understand cellular behaviours in complex inflammatory disease, permits rational design of drug interventional strategies and has provided new insights into the role of TCR signalling in autoimmune disease progression.

In silico investigation of novel biological pathways: the role of CD200 in regulation of T cell priming in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis

The use of simulation to investigate biological domains will inevitably lead to the need to extend existing simulations as new areas of these domains become more fully understood. Such simulation extensions can entail the incorporation of additional cell types, molecules or molecular pathways, all of which can exert a profound influence on the simulation behaviour. Where the biological domain is not well characterised, a structured development methodology must be employed to ensure that the extended simulation is well aligned with its predecessor. We develop and discuss such a methodology, relying on iterative simulation development and sensitivity analysis. The utility of this methodology is demonstrated using a case study simulation of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a murine T cell-mediated autoimmune disease model of multiple sclerosis, where it is used to investigate the activity of an additional regulatory pathway. We discuss how application of this methodology guards against creating inappropriate simulation representations of the biology when investigating poorly characterised biological mechanisms.