Population risk factor estimates for abdominal aortic aneurysm from electronic medical records: a case control study

Aneurysm and Artery Dissection After Oral VEGFR-TKI Use in Adults With Cancer

Importance

The association of tyrosine kinase inhibitors targeting vascular endothelial growth factor receptors (VEGFR-TKIs) with aneurysm and artery dissection (AAD) has been frequently reported in spontaneous reporting databases.

Objective

To investigate the risk and incidence of AAD occurrence in patients with cancer treated with oral VEGFR-TKIs, with capecitabine as an active comparator.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This national, historical cohort study was conducted using national claims data from the National Health Insurance Service in Korea from 2007 to 2020, with a 1-year follow-up. Patients with cancer aged 40 years or older prescribed oral VEGFR-TKIs or capecitabine were enrolled. Data were analyzed from September 2022 through April 2023.

Exposure

Oral VEGFR-TKIs (sorafenib, regorafenib, vandetanib, sunitinib, lenvatinib, axitinib, and pazopanib) or capecitabine as a comparator.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HRs) were used to investigate the association between VEGFR-TKI use and AAD after propensity score matching. The primary outcome was AAD, and secondary outcomes were aortic aneurysm and dissection and AAD with rupture. Outcomes were defined using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes.

Results

Among 127 710 patients with cancer eligible for the study (80 386 males [62.9%]; mean [SD] age, 62.6 [10.9] years), 37 308 patients received VEGFR-TKIs and 90 402 patients received capecitabine. Among 27 535 matched patients receiving VEGFR-TKIs, the incidence of AAD within 1 year of treatment initiation was 6.0 per 1000 person-years. The median (IQR) time to AAD onset in the matched AAD group was 114 (67-257) days after treatment initiation, with the highest incidence observed during the first 3 months (45 incidents vs 31, 17, and 16 incidents during 3- to 6-month, 6- to 9-month, and 9- to 12-month periods, respectively). Cox regression modeling showed that the risk of AAD occurrence was significantly higher among patients prescribed VEGFR-TKIs than those receiving capecitabine (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.08-2.02); similar results were obtained among females (HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.26-3.42), older adults (aged ≥65 years; HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99), and patients with dyslipidemia (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.11-2.24).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the use of oral VEGFR-TKIs was associated with an increased risk of AAD occurrence. These findings elucidate vascular toxic effects and may provide a substantial reference for reducing the socioeconomic burden of adverse events associated with VEGFR-TKI use.

The effects of changing meteorological parameters on fatal aortic catastrophes

Background

Over the span of the last decade, medical research has been increasingly putting greater emphasis on the study of meteorological parameters due to their connection to cardiovascular diseases. The main goal of this study was to explore the relationship between fatal aortic catastrophes and changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature.

Methods

We used a Cox process model to quantify the effects of environmental factors on sudden deaths resulting from aortic catastrophes. We used transfer entropy to draw conclusion about the causal connection between mortality and meteorological parameters. Our main tool was a computer program which we developed earlier in order to evaluate the relationship between pulmonary embolism mortality and weather on data sets comprised of aortic aneurysm (AA) and acute aortic dissection (AAD) cases, where one of these two medical conditions had led to fatal rupture of the aorta. Our source for these cases were the autopsy databases of Semmelweis University, from the time period of 1994 to 2014. We have examined 160 aneurysm and 130 dissection cases in relation to changes in meteorological parameters. The algorythm implemented in our program is based on a non-parametric a Cox process model. It is capable of splitting slowly varying unknown global trends from fluctuations potentially caused by weather. Furthermore, it allows us to explore complex non-linear interactions between meteorological parameters and mortality.

Results

Model measures the relative growth of the expected number of events on the n^th day caused by the deviation of environmental parameters from its mean value. The connection between ruptured aortic aneurysms (rAA) and changes in atmospheric pressure is more significant than their connection with mean daily temperatures. With an increase in atmospheric pressure, the rate of rAA mortality also increased. The effects of meteorological parameters were weaker for deaths resulting from acute aortic dissections (AAD), although low mean daily temperatures increased the intensity of occurrence for AAD-related deaths.

Conclusion

The occurrence rate of fatal aortic catastrophes showed a slight dependence on the two examined parameters within our groups.

Increased Risk of Peripheral Arterial Disease in Patients With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Retrospective Cohort Study (Version 5)

Studies evaluating the risk of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are limited. We used insurance claims data of Taiwan to establish a cohort of 6590 patients with AAA newly diagnosed from 2000 to 2008 and 6590 controls without AAA matched by propensity score. The subsequent incidence density rates of PAD were estimated in both cohorts by the end of 2011, and the AAA cohort to the non-AAA cohort hazard ratios (HRs) of PAD were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. The incidence density of PAD in the AAA cohort was 3.7-fold greater than that in the non-AAA cohort (14.1 vs 3.66 per 1000 person-years) with an adjusted HR of 3.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.89-4.39). For those without comorbidities, PAD in the AAA cohort was 7.4-fold greater than that in the non-AAA cohort (12.0 vs 1.61 per 1000 person-years) with an adjusted HR of 6.70 (95% CI = 4.43-10.1). The incidence of PAD in patients with ruptured AAA was lower than that in patients without rupture (6.95 vs 15.0 per 1000 person-years). This study demonstrates that patients with AAA are at increased risk of developing PAD.

Psychosocial consequences in men taking part in a national screening program for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has proven to reduce AAA-related mortality, but how the knowledge of having an untreated AAA affects health and daily life requires further clarification. The aim was to investigate the psychosocial consequences and sense of coherence (SOC) in 65-year-old men diagnosed with AAA and participating in a national screening program during a 6-month follow-up compared with men with no AAA. The single-center cohort study included 52 men with AAA and 118 men without AAA. A questionnaire including the Short Form 36 Health Survey, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, SOC, questions concerning stress, and questions related to AAA were answered at baseline and after 6 months. Men with AAA reported more problems with physical functioning, pain, and general health than men with a normal aorta at baseline. After 6 months, men with AAA still reported more problems with physical functioning and stress in relation to disease than men with normal aortic diameter. No differences were observed between groups in SOC, anxiety, and depression. A significantly higher satisfaction with information from the physician and desire to learn about the AAA diagnosis was reported at baseline compared with that at follow-up. Having knowledge about the AAA diagnosis may moderately impact physical health and perceived stress, and in combination with the increased prevalence of other cardiovascular diseases, may lead to impaired perceived health for men diagnosed with AAA.

Abdominal aortic aneurysm screening program using hand-held ultrasound in primary healthcare

We determined the feasibility of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening program led by family physicians in public primary healthcare setting using hand-held ultrasound device. The potential study population was 11,214 men aged ≥ 60 years attended by three urban, public primary healthcare centers. Participants were recruited by randomly-selected telephone calls. Ultrasound examinations were performed by four trained family physicians with a hand-held ultrasound device (Vscan^®). AAA observed were verified by confirmatory imaging using standard ultrasound or computed tomography. Cardiovascular risk factors were determined. The prevalence of AAA was computed as the sum of previously-known aneurysms, aneurysms detected by the screening program and model-based estimated undiagnosed aneurysms. We screened 1,010 men, with mean age of 71.3 (SD 6.9) years; 995 (98.5%) men had normal aortas and 15 (1.5%) had AAA on Vscan^®. Eleven out of 14 AAA-cases (78.6%) had AAA on confirmatory imaging (one patient died). The total prevalence of AAA was 2.49% (95%CI 2.20 to 2.78). The median aortic diameter at diagnosis was 3.5 cm in screened patients and 4.7 cm (p<0.001) in patients in whom AAA was diagnosed incidentally. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified coronary heart disease (OR = 4.6, 95%CI 1.3 to 15.9) as the independent factor with the highest odds ratio. A screening program led by trained family physicians using hand-held ultrasound was a feasible, safe and reliable tool for the early detection of AAA.

Genetic risk models: Influence of model size on risk estimates and precision

Disease risk estimation plays an important role in disease prevention. Many studies have found that the ability to predict risk improves as the number of risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the risk model increases. However, the width of the confidence interval of the risk estimate is often not considered in the evaluation of the risk model. Here, we explore how the risk and the confidence interval width change as more SNPs are added to the model in the order of decreasing effect size, using both simulated data and real data from studies of abdominal aortic aneurysms and age-related macular degeneration. Our results show that confidence interval width is positively correlated with model size and the majority of the bigger models have wider confidence interval widths than smaller models. Once the model size is bigger than a certain level, the risk does not shift markedly, as 100% of the risk estimates of the one-SNP-bigger models lie inside the confidence interval of the one-SNP-smaller models. We also created a confidence interval-augmented reclassification table. It shows that both more effective SNPs with larger odds ratios and less effective SNPs with smaller odds ratios contribute to the correct decision of whom to screen. The best screening strategy is selected and evaluated by the net benefit quantity and the reclassification rate. We suggest that individuals whose upper bound of their risk confidence interval is above the screening threshold, which corresponds to the population prevalence of the disease, should be screened.

Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Four New Disease-Specific Risk Loci

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Rationale:

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Together, 6 previously identified risk loci only explain a small proportion of the heritability of AAA.

Objective:

To identify additional AAA risk loci using data from all available genome-wide association studies.

Methods and Results:

Through a meta-analysis of 6 genome-wide association study data sets and a validation study totaling 10 204 cases and 107 766 controls, we identified 4 new AAA risk loci: 1q32.3 (SMYD2), 13q12.11 (LINC00540), 20q13.12 (near PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335), and 21q22.2 (ERG). In various database searches, we observed no new associations between the lead AAA single nucleotide polymorphisms and coronary artery disease, blood pressure, lipids, or diabetes mellitus. Network analyses identified ERG, IL6R, and LDLR as modifiers of MMP9, with a direct interaction between ERG and MMP9.

Conclusions:

The 4 new risk loci for AAA seem to be specific for AAA compared with other cardiovascular diseases and related traits suggesting that traditional cardiovascular risk factor management may only have limited value in preventing the progression of aneurysmal disease.

Chronic Kidney Disease Is Positively and Diabetes Mellitus Is Negatively Associated with Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are considered as risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. The purpose of this study was to clarify the relationship of CKD and DM with the presence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).

METHODS

We enrolled 261 patients with AAA (AAA+) and age-and-sex matched 261 patients without AAA (AAA-) at two hospitals between 2008 and 2014, and examined the association between the risk factors and the presence of AAA. Furthermore, in order to investigate the prevalence of AAA in each group, we enrolled 1126 patients with CKD and 400 patients with DM.

RESULTS

The presence of CKD in patients with AAA+ was significantly higher than that in patients with AAA- (AAA+; 65%, AAA-; 52%, P = 0.004). The presence of DM in patients with AAA+ was significantly lower than that in patients with AAA- (AAA+; 17%, AAA-; 35%, P < 0.001). A multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that hypertension, ischemic heart disease and CKD were independent determinants, whereas, DM was a negatively independent determinant, for the presence of AAA. The prevalence of AAA in patients with CKD 65 years old and above was 5.1%, whereas, that in patients with DM 65 years old and above was only 0.6%.

CONCLUSION

CKD is a positively associated with the presence of AAA. In contrast, DM is a negatively associated with the presence of AAA in Japanese population.

Shared Genetic Risk Factors of Intracranial, Abdominal, and Thoracic Aneurysms

BACKGROUND

Intracranial aneurysms (IAs), abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), and thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAAs) all have a familial predisposition. Given that aneurysm types are known to co-occur, we hypothesized that there may be shared genetic risk factors for IAs, AAAs, and TAAs.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a mega-analysis of 1000 Genomes Project-imputed genome-wide association study (GWAS) data of 4 previously published aneurysm cohorts: 2 IA cohorts (in total 1516 cases, 4305 controls), 1 AAA cohort (818 cases, 3004 controls), and 1 TAA cohort (760 cases, 2212 controls), and observed associations of 4 known IA, AAA, and/or TAA risk loci (9p21, 18q11, 15q21, and 2q33) with consistent effect directions in all 4 cohorts. We calculated polygenic scores based on IA-, AAA-, and TAA-associated SNPs and tested these scores for association to case-control status in the other aneurysm cohorts; this revealed no shared polygenic effects. Similarly, linkage disequilibrium-score regression analyses did not show significant correlations between any pair of aneurysm subtypes. Last, we evaluated the evidence for 14 previously published aneurysm risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms through collaboration in extended aneurysm cohorts, with a total of 6548 cases and 16 843 controls (IA) and 4391 cases and 37 904 controls (AAA), and found nominally significant associations for IA risk locus 18q11 near RBBP8 to AAA (odds ratio [OR]=1.11; P=4.1×10(-5)) and for TAA risk locus 15q21 near FBN1 to AAA (OR=1.07; P=1.1×10(-3)).

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was no evidence for polygenic overlap between IAs, AAAs, and TAAs, we found nominally significant effects of two established risk loci for IAs and TAAs in AAAs. These two loci will require further replication.

Understanding the pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysms

An aortic aneurysm is a dilatation in which the aortic diameter is ≥3.0 cm. If left untreated, the aortic wall continues to weaken and becomes unable to withstand the forces of the luminal blood pressure resulting in progressive dilatation and rupture, a catastrophic event associated with a mortality of 50-80%. Smoking and positive family history are important risk factors for the development of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). Several genetic risk factors have also been identified. On the histological level, visible hallmarks of AAA pathogenesis include inflammation, smooth muscle cell apoptosis, extracellular matrix degradation and oxidative stress. We expect that large genetic, genomic, epigenetic, proteomic and metabolomic studies will be undertaken by international consortia to identify additional risk factors and biomarkers, and to enhance our understanding of the pathobiology of AAA. Collaboration between different research groups will be important in overcoming the challenges to develop pharmacological treatments for AAA.

An analysis of human microbe-disease associations

The microbiota living in the human body has critical impacts on our health and disease, but a systems understanding of its relationships with disease remains limited. Here, we use a large-scale text mining-based manually curated microbe-disease association data set to construct a microbe-based human disease network and investigate the relationships between microbes and disease genes, symptoms, chemical fragments and drugs. We reveal that microbe-based disease loops are significantly coherent. Microbe-based disease connections have strong overlaps with those constructed by disease genes, symptoms, chemical fragments and drugs. Moreover, we confirm that the microbe-based disease analysis is able to predict novel connections and mechanisms for disease, microbes, genes and drugs. The presented network, methods and findings can be a resource helpful for addressing some issues in medicine, for example, the discovery of bench knowledge and bedside clinical solutions for disease mechanism understanding, diagnosis and therapy.

National trends in incidence and outcomes of abdominal aortic aneurysm among elderly type 2 diabetic and non-diabetic patients in Spain (2003-2012)

BACKGROUND

This study aims to describe trends in the rate of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and use of open surgery repair (OSR) and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in elderly patients with and without type 2 diabetes in Spain, 2003-2012.

METHODS

We select all patients with a discharge of AAA using national hospital discharge data. Discharges were grouped by diabetes status: type 2 diabetes and no diabetes. In both groups OSR and EVAR were identified. The incidence of discharges attributed to AAA were calculated overall and stratified by diabetes status and year. We calculated length of stay (LOHS) and in-hospital mortality (IHM). Use of OSR and EVAR were calculated stratified by diabetes status. Multivariate analysis was adjusted by age, sex, year, smoking habit and comorbidity.

RESULTS

From 2003 to 2012, 115,020 discharges with AAA were identified. The mean age was 74.91 years and 16.7% suffered type 2 diabetes. Rates of discharges due to AAA increased significantly in diabetic patients (50.09 in 2003 to 78.23 cases per 100,000 in 2012) and non diabetic subjects (69.24 to 78.66). The incidences were higher among those without than those with diabetes in all the years studied. The proportion of patients that underwent EVAR increased for both groups of patients and the open repair decreased. After multivariate analysis we found that LOHS and IHM have improved over the study period and diabetic patients had lower IHM than those without diabetes (OR 0.81; 95%CI 0.76-0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence rates were higher in non-diabetic patients. For diabetic and non diabetic patients the use of EVAR has increased and open repair seems to be decreasing. IHM and LOHS have improved from 2003 to 2012. Patients with diabetes had significantly lower mortality.