Prognostic prediction across a gradient of total tumor volume in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy

Performance status as a prognostic surrogate in hepatocellular carcinoma: Role of albumin-bilirubin and easy-albumin-bilirubin grade

BACKGROUND

Performance status (PS) is associated with the severity of liver cirrhosis and is also an important survival determinant in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and easy (EZ)-ALBI grade have been proposed to evaluate liver dysfunction in HCC, but their role in patients with different PS is unclear. We aimed to investigate the prognostic role of ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade in a large HCC cohort with variable PS.

METHODS

A total of 3355 newly diagnosed HCC patients between 2002 and 2018 were identified and retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors associated with survival were investigated using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Patients with poor PS had decreased survival compared with those with good PS. In the Cox model, creatinine ≥1.2 mg/dL, α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥20 ng/mL, vascular invasion, distant metastasis, total tumor volume >100 cm 3 , presence of ascites, ALBI grades 2 and 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and grade 3, PS 1-4, and noncurative treatment were independently associated with higher mortality in the entire cohort (all p < 0.001). ALBI grade and EZ-ALBI grade can well stratify overall survival in subgroup patients with PS 0, PS 1-2, and PS 3-4 (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients with good PS have better long-term survival compared with those with poor PS. ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade can discriminate long-term outcome in the entire cohort as well as in patients with different PS. ALBI and EZ-ALBI are objective and feasible prognostic models to evaluate liver dysfunction in HCC patients independent of PS.

Radiofrequency Ablation versus Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria: Prognostic Role of Tumor Burden Score

Tumor burden score (TBS), estimated by the diameter and number of tumor nodules, was recently proposed to assess the tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of TBS on HCC patients within the Milan criteria undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). A total of 883 patients undergoing RFA and TACE were included. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic predictors in different patient cohorts. The TACE group had significantly higher TBS compared with the RFA group. The RFA group had better long-term survival than the TACE group in patients within the Milan criteria in univariate survival analysis. In the Cox model, serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, performance status 1−2, medium and high TBS, albumin−bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 and grade 3 were independent predictors linked with mortality (all p < 0.001). Overall, TACE was not an independent predictor; among patients with low TBS, TACE was independently associated with decreased survival compared with RFA (p = 0.034). Conclusions: TBS is a feasible prognostic marker for HCC patients within the Milan criteria. TACE may be an effective treatment alternative for these patients. Among patients with low TBS, RFA should be considered the priority treatment modality.

Patient stratification in hepatocellular carcinoma: impact on choice of therapy

INTRODUCTION

HCC comprises around 60 to 80% of all primary liver cancers and exhibits wide geographical variability. Appropriate treatment allocation needs to include both patient and tumor characteristics.

AREAS COVERED

Current HCC classification systems to guide therapy are either liver function-centric and evaluate physiologic liver function to guide therapy or prognostic stratification classification systems broadly based on tumor morphologic parameters, patient performance status, and liver reserve assessment. This review focuses on different classification systems for HCC, their strengths, and weaknesses as well as the use of artificial intelligence in improving prognostication in HCC.

EXPERT OPINION

Future HCC classification systems will need to incorporate clinic-pathologic data from a multitude of sources and emerging therapies to develop patient-specific treatment plans targeting a patient's unique tumor profile.

Signaling by the tyrosine kinase Yes promotes liver cancer development

Most patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are diagnosed at a late stage and have few therapeutic options and a poor prognosis. This is due to the lack of clearly defined underlying mechanisms or a dominant oncogene that can be targeted pharmacologically, unlike in other cancer types. Here, we report the identification of a previously uncharacterized oncogenic signaling pathway in HCC that is mediated by the tyrosine kinase Yes. Using genetic and pharmacological interventions in cellular and mouse models of HCC, we showed that Yes activity was necessary for HCC cell proliferation. Transgenic expression of activated Yes in mouse hepatocytes was sufficient to induce liver tumorigenesis. Yes phosphorylated the transcriptional coactivators YAP and TAZ (YAP/TAZ), promoting their nuclear accumulation and transcriptional activity in HCC cells and liver tumors. We also showed that YAP/TAZ were effectors of the Yes-dependent oncogenic transformation of hepatocytes. Src family kinase activation correlated with the tyrosine phosphorylation and nuclear localization of YAP in human HCC and was associated with increased tumor burden in mice. Specifically, high Yes activity predicted shorter overall survival in patients with HCC. Thus, our findings identify Yes as a potential therapeutic target in HCC.

Predictive Outcomes Using Child-Turcotte-Pugh and Albumin-Bilirubin Scores in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

INTRODUCTION

We assessed the ability of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score and the albumin-bilirubin grade to predict the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed 158 patients with HCC who underwent transarterial chemoembolization. The ability of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score and the albumin-bilirubin grade to predict patient survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate survival-predictive variables and the relationship between the obtained score and overall survival.

RESULTS

Child-Turcotte-Pugh A (n = 102 (64.6%)) patients showed better overall survival than Child-Turcotte-Pugh B (n = 56 (35.4%)) patients (log-rank P = 0.017), while no significant difference in the overall survival between albumin-bilirubin ≤ 1 (n = 37 (23.4%)) and albumin-bilirubin > 1 (n = 121 (76.6%)) was detected (log-rank P = 0.140). Multivariate analysis identified alcoholic liver disease (P = 0.029), tumor size > 5 cm (P = 0.004), and serum alpha-fetoprotein > 200 ng/mL (P < 0.001) as independent predictive factors of mortality risk. A higher Child-Turcotte-Pugh score was positively associated with decreased overall survival (P = 0.031); however, a higher albumin-bilirubin grade showed marginally significant association (P = 0.088).

CONCLUSIONS

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh score precisely categorized the outcomes of HCC in patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization, and cirrhotic patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh A will have a better overall survival than those with Child-Turcotte-Pugh B, regardless of HCC status. These results suggest that the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification system is a more powerful tool to predict patient outcomes than the albumin-bilirubin grading system.

Tumor burden score as a new prognostic marker for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Size and number are major determinants of tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) have variable outcomes due to heterogeneity of tumor burden. Recently, tumor burden score (TBS) was proposed to evaluate the extent of tumor involvement. However, the prognostic accuracy of TBS has not been well evaluated in HCC. This study aimed to assess its prognostic role in HCC patients undergoing TACE.

METHODS

A total of 935 treatment-naïve HCC patients receiving TACE were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Tumor burden score tended to increase with increasing size and number of tumors in study patients. The Cox model showed that serum creatinine ≥ 1.2 mg/dL (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.296, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.077-1.559, P = 0.006), serum α-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/dL (HR: 2.245, 95% CI: 1.905-2.645, P < 0.001), vascular invasion (HR: 1.870, 95% CI: 1.520-2.301, P < 0.001), medium TBS (HR: 1.489, 95% CI: 1.206-1.839, P < 0.001) and high TBS (HR: 2.563, 95% CI: 1.823-3.602, P < 0.001), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2-3 (HR: 1.521, 95% CI: 1.291-1.792, P < 0.001), and performance status 1 (HR: 1.362, 95% CI: 1.127-1.647, P < 0.001) and status 2 (HR: 1.553, 95% CI: 1.237-1.948, P < 0.001) were associated with increased mortality. Patients with high TBS had poor overall survival in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B/C and different ALBI grades.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor burden score is a feasible new prognostic surrogate marker of tumor burden in HCC and can well discriminate survival in patients undergoing TACE across different baseline characteristics.

Easy albumin-bilirubin score as a new prognostic predictor in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver functional reserve is a major prognostic determinant in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is an objective method to assess the severity of cirrhosis in this setting. However, calculation of the ALBI score is complex and difficult to access in clinical practice. Recently, the EZ (easy)-ALBI score was proposed as an alternative biomarker of liver injury. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of the EZ-ALBI score in HCC from early to advanced stages.

METHODS

A total of 3794 newly diagnosed HCC patients were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors were determined by using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The EZ-ALBI score showed good correlation with the ALBI score (correlation coefficient, 0.965; p < 0.001). The correlation of the EZ-ALBI score was highly preserved in different Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classifications, treatment methods, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages (correlation coefficients, 0.90-0.97). In the Cox multivariate analysis, age >65 years, male sex, serum α-fetoprotein >20 ng/ml, large or multiple tumors, total tumor volume >100 cm³ , vascular invasion or distant metastasis, ascites, poor performance status, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and 3, and noncurative treatments were independently associated with increased mortality (all p < 0.05). Moreover, EZ-ALBI grade can stratify long-term survival in patients with different CTP class, treatment strategy, and BCLC stage.

CONCLUSIONS

The EZ-ALBI score is an easy and feasible method to evaluate liver functional reserve. As a new prognostic biomarker in HCC, the predictive power of the EZ-ALBI grade is independent across different cancer stages and treatments.

Low serum magnesium concentration is associated with the presence of viable hepatocellular carcinoma tissue in cirrhotic patients

This study aimed to ascertain, for the first time, whether serum magnesium (Mg) concentration is affected by the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We retrospectively enrolled consecutive cirrhotic patients with a diagnosis of HCC (n = 130) or without subsequent evidence of HCC during surveillance (n = 161). Serum levels of Mg were significantly (P < 0.001) lower in patients with HCC than in those without (median [interquartile range]: 1.80 [1.62–1.90] mg/dl vs. 1.90 [1.72–2.08] mg/dl). On multivariate logistic regression, low serum Mg was associated with the presence of HCC (OR 0.047, 95% CI 0.015–0.164; P < 0.0001), independently from factors that can influence magnesaemia and HCC development. In a subset of 94 patients with HCC, a linear mixed effects model adjusted for confounders showed that serum Mg at diagnosis of HCC was lower than before diagnosis of the tumor (β = 0.117, 95% CI 0.039–0.194, P = 0.0035) and compared to after locoregional treatment of HCC (β = 0.079, 95% CI 0.010–0.149, P = 0.0259), with two thirds of patients experiencing these changes of serum Mg over time. We hypothesize that most HCCs, like other cancers, may be avid for Mg and behave like a Mg trap, disturbing the body’s Mg balance and resulting in lowering of serum Mg levels.

Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) Grade-Based Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

BACKGROUND/AIM

The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is highly heterogeneous because of variable characteristics of tumor burden and liver dysfunction. We aimed to propose and validate an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based prognostic nomogram for HCC patients undergoing TACE.

METHODS

A total of 1051 patients with HCC undergoing TACE were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 525) and validation (n = 526) set in this retrospective study based on prospective data. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model in derivation set was used to generate the nomogram. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination and calibration tests.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, presence of ascites, ALBI grade 2-3, serum ɑ-fetoprotein level ≥ 400 ng/mL, total tumor volume ≥ 396 cm³, presence of vascular invasion, and poor performance status were independently associated with decreased survival of patients in the derivation set. Each patient had an individualized score from 0 to 41 by adding up the points from these six prognostic predictors. The nomogram generated from the derivation set had a concordance index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.82). Discrimination test in the validation set provided a good concordance index 0.72 (95% CI 0.62-0.81), and the calibration plots consistently matched the ideal 45-degree reference line for 3- and 5-year survival prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

The ALBI grade-based prognostic model can well discriminate the survival in HCC patients undergoing TACE. The proposed easy-to-use nomogram may accurately predict the survival at 3 and 5 years for individual HCC patient in the precision medicine era.

Current noninvasive liver reserve models do not predict histological fibrosis severity in hepatocellular carcinoma

The Ishak scoring system has been used to stage liver fibrosis. Ten noninvasive liver reserve models were proposed to assess the severity of liver fibrosis, but their performance in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between these models and severity of fibrosis in patients with HCC. A total 464 patients with HCC undergoing surgical resection were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent factors associated with advanced fibrosis (Ishak score 4 or higher). There were no significant correlations between all noninvasive models and severity of fibrosis in HCC (p for trend all >0.1). In subgroup analysis, cirrhosis discriminant index (CDS) and Lok’s index in hepatitis B-, and fibrosis index based on 4 factors (FIB-4), CDS and Lok’s index in hepatitis C-associated HCC, best correlated with the severity of liver fibrosis. Low platelet count, prolonged prothrombin time, hepatitis C and multiple tumors were independently associated with advanced fibrosis. Among the 10 models, CDS was the best model to predict cirrhosis. Currently used noninvasive liver reserve models do not well correlate with severity of histological fibrosis in HCC. New noninvasive models are required to improve the predictive accuracy of liver fibrosis in HCC.

Metastasis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Prevalence, determinants, prognostic impact and ability to improve the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system

BACKGROUND & AIM

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and metastasis are classified as advanced or terminal stage by the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system. This study investigates the prevalence, determinants, and prognostic effect of metastasis and its ability to improve the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system.

METHODS

A total of 3414 patients were enrolled. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used to determine survival predictors. Akaike information criterion was used to compare the prognostic performance of staging systems.

RESULTS

There were 357 (10%) patients having extrahepatic metastasis at the time of diagnosis. Metastases were associated with old age, alcoholism, hepatitis B, poorer liver function, higher α-foetoprotein level and larger tumour burden (all P < .05). Vascular invasion was associated with metastasis regardless of total tumour volume, and higher α-foetoprotein level and multiple tumours were associated with metastasis in patients with smaller tumour volume (all P < .05). Patients with both vascular invasion and metastasis had significantly worse outcome compared to patients with either vascular invasion or metastasis (P < .05). In the Cox proportional model, the co-existence of vascular invasion and metastasis was an independent predictor of decreased survival (P < .05). Re-allocating 181 Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C patients with both vascular invasion and metastasis into stage D was associated with lower Akaike information criterion, indicating enhanced prognostic power of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Metastasis is not uncommon, and is strongly associated with tumoural factors and poor long-term survival in hepatocellular carcinoma. Modification of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system based on vascular invasion and metastasis may further improve its predictive accuracy in advanced stage patients.

Serum Iron Levels Decreased in Patients with HBV-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma, as a Risk Factor for the Prognosis of HBV-Related HCC

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is common and the second leading causes of cancer-related deaths. HCC usually occurs on the basis of chronic liver diseases. At present, the study of iron metabolism in chronic liver diseases was limited to chronic HCV infection, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and alcoholic liver disease. This study aimed to investigate the effect of serum iron levels on the progression of chronic HBV infection and the relationship with the prognosis of HBV-related HCC. Methods: A respective study involving 277 healthy individuals as controls (HC), 295 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 224 patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis (HBV-related LC), and 586 patients with HBV- related HCC were enrolled in this study. Hematological parameters, HBVDNA and liver biochemistry were analyzed. Child-Pugh grade and BCLC stage of the HBV-related HCC patients were calculated. Results: The serum iron levels were lowest in the HBV- related HCC group as compared with HC, CHB, and HBV-related LC groups (35.07 ± 6.97, 27.37 ± 10.26, 24.53 ± 10.36 vs. 17.90 ± 0.14, P < 0.001). Strikingly, serum iron levels were lowest in HBV- related HCC patients with tumor size more than 10 cm as compared with HBV- related HCC patients with tumor size smaller than 3, 3-5, and 5-10 cm by subgroup analysis (22.12 ± 0.94, 21.44 ± 1.41, 15.65 ± 0.98 vs. 13.36 ± 1.15, P < 0.001). Serum iron levels significantly decreased with worsening Child-Pugh grades and BCLC stages in HBV-related HCC group. In addition, serum iron levels was positively correlated with Retinol-Binding Protein, total bile acid, hemoglobin, and lymphocyte and negatively correlated with white blood cell (WBC) and platelet in HBV- related HCC group. ROC curve analysis showed serum iron levels at 15.1 μmol/L as the optimal cut-off point for determining the survival of HBV-related HCC. By the Cox regression model analysis, serum iron levels <15.1 μmol/l together with higher AFP levels, worse BCLC stages, and larger tumor size showed higher mortality of HBV-related HCC patients (hazard ratio = 2.280, 95% confidence interval, 1.815-2.865; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Serum iron levels affected the progression of chronic HBV infection. The prognosis of HBV- related HCC patients with serum iron levels <15.1 μmol/l together with higher AFP levels, worse BCLC stages, and larger tumor lesion were poor.

Nomogram for preoperative estimation of long-term survival of patients who underwent curative resection with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage A1

Background and Aims

This retrospective cohort study developed a prognostic nomogram to predict the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients diagnosed as beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage A1 after resection and evaluated the possibility of using the nomogram as a treatment algorithm reference.

Results

The predictors included in the nomogram were total tumour volume, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class, plasma fibrinogen and portal vein tumour thrombus. Patients diagnosed as beyond A1 were stratified into low-, medium- and high-risk groups using nomogram scores of 0 and 51 with the total points of 225. Patients within A1 exhibited similar recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates compared with the low-risk group. Patients in the medium-risk group exhibited a similar OS but a worse RFS rates compared with patients within A1. The high-risk group was associated with worse RFS and OS rates compared with the patients within A1 (3-year RFS rates, 27.0% vs. 60.3%, P < 0.001; 3-year OS rates, 49.2% vs. 83.1%, P < 0.001).

Methods

A total of 352 HCC patients undergoing curative resection from September 2003 to December 2012 were included to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival after resection. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. A visually orientated nomogram was constructed using a Cox proportional hazards model.

Conclusions

This user-friendly nomogram offers an individualized preoperative recurrence risk estimation and stratification for HCC patients beyond A1 undergoing resection. Resection should be considered the first-line treatment for low-risk patients.

Impact of tumor burden on prognostic prediction for patients with terminal stage hepatocellular carcinoma: A nomogram study

BACKGROUND

The recently proposed nomogram of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) lacks predictive accuracy for patients with stage D hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Tumor burden is crucial in prognostic prediction but is not included in the criteria of stage D HCC. This study aims to develop a nomogram with tumor burden as the core element for BCLC stage D patients.

METHODS

A total of 386 patients were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets (1:1 ratio). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to select factors with significant prognostic effect and generate the nomogram. Concordance indices and calibration plots were used to evaluate the performance of nomogram.

RESULTS

Overall survival of study patients was significantly associated with tumor burden as well as hepatitis B, serum α-fetoprotein level, cirrhosis and performance status in multivariate Cox regression (all p<0.05). Beta-coefficients of these variables in derivation set were used to generate the nomogram. Each patient was assigned with a total nomogram point that predicted individualized 6-month and 1-year survival. The derivation and validation sets had a c-index of 0.759 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.552-0.923) and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.529-0.913), respectively. The calibration plots were close to the 45-degree line for 6-month and 1-year survival prediction for all quarters of patients in both derivation and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

Tumor burden is significantly associated with the outcome for patients with stage D HCC. The tumor burden-incorporated nomogram may serve as a feasible and easy-to-use tool in predicting survival on an individual level.

Predictors of Outcome of Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The aim of this work is to study the different factors that affect the outcome of living donor liver transplantation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Between April 2003 to November 2014, 62 patients with liver cirrhosis and HCC underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in the National Liver Institute, Menoufia University, Egypt. The preoperative, operative, and postoperative data were analyzed. After studying the pathology of explanted liver; 44 (71 %) patients were within the Milan criteria, and 18 (29 %) patients were beyond Milan; 13 (21.7 %) of patients beyond the Milan criteria were also beyond the University of California San Francisco criteria (UCSF) criteria. Preoperative ablative therapy for HCC was done in 22 patients (35.5 %), four patients had complete ablation with no residual tumor tissues. Microvascular invasion was present in ten patients (16 %) in histopathological study. Seven (11.3 %) patients had recurrent HCC post transplantation. The 1, 3, 5 years total survival was 88.7, 77.9, 67.2 %, respectively, while the tumor-free survival was 87.3, 82.5, 77.6 %, respectively. Expansion of selection criteria beyond Milan and UCSF had no increased risk effect on recurrence of HCC but had less survival rate than patients within the Milan criteria. Microvascular invasion was an independent risk factor for tumor recurrence.

Prognostic role of noninvasive liver reserve markers in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

Background

Various noninvasive liver reserve markers were proposed to indicate the severity of liver damage. However, the role and feasibility of these markers to predict the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are unknown. We aimed to identify the prognostic role of the 8 currently used hepatic reserve markers in patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

Methods

Between 2002 and 2013, a total of 881 patients with HCC undergoing TACE were prospectively identified and retrospectively analyzed. The baseline characteristics, tumor status and noninvasive markers were collected. Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criteria (AICc) were compared between these markers. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent predictors of survival.

Results

Significant differences in survival distribution were found for albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class, Lok index, fibrosis index based on 4 factors (FIB-4), Göteborg University cirrhosis index (GUCI), cirrhosis discriminant index (CDI) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (all p values <0.05). Among these markers, the ALBI grade showed the highest homogeneity and lowest AICc value, indicating a better prognostic performance. Cox multivariate analysis confirmed that ALBI grade 2, ascites, serum alkaline phosphatase and α-fetoprotein level, tumor diameter, vascular invasion and performance status were significant independent prognostic predictors. The distribution of the ALBI score well correlated with baseline CTP and MLED scores.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that among the currently used liver reserve markers, ALBI grade may serve as an objective and feasible surrogate to predict the prognosis of HCC patients undergoing TACE.

Treatment algorithm based on the multivariate survival analyses in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with trans-arterial chemoembolization

Purpose

To develop the treatment algorithm from multivariate survival analyses (MVA) in patients with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) C (advanced) Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with Trans-arterial Chemoembolization (TACE).

Methods

Consecutive unresectable and non-tranplantable patients with advanced HCC, who received DEB TACE were studied. A total of 238 patients (mean age, 62.4yrs) was included in the study. Survivals were analyzed according to different parameters from the time of the 1st DEB TACE. Kaplan Meier and Cox Proportional Hazard model were used for survival analysis. The SS was constructed from MVA and named BCLC C HCC Prognostic (BCHP) staging system (SS).

Results

Overall median survival (OS) was 16.2 months. In HCC patients with venous thrombosis (VT) of large vein [main portal vein (PV), right or left PV, hepatic vein, inferior vena cava] (22.7%) versus small vein (segmental/subsegmental PV) (9.7%) versus no VT had OSs of 6.4 months versus 20 months versus 22.8 months respectively (p<0.001). On MVA, the significant independent prognostic factors (PFs) of survival were CP class, eastern cooperative oncology group (ECOG) performance status (PS), single HCC<5 cm, site of VT, metastases, serum creatinine and serum alpha-feto protein. Based on these PFs, the BCHP staging system was constructed. The OSs of stages I, II and III were 28.4 months, 11.8 months and 2.4 months accordingly (p<0.001). The treatment plan was proposed according to the different stages.

Conclusion

On MVA of patients with advanced HCC treated with TACE, significant independent prognostic factors (PFs) of survival were CP class, ECOG PS, single HCC<5 cm or others, site of VT, metastases, serum creatinine and serum alpha-feto protein. New BCHP SS was proposed based on MVA data to identify the suitable advanced HCC patients for TACE treatments.

Early Prediction of the Outcome Using Tumor Markers and mRECIST in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Who Underwent Transarterial Chemoembolization

OBJECTIVE

We examined early predictors of the outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

METHODS

We analyzed 116 patients with unresectable HCC treated with initial TACE. α-Fetoprotein (AFP) or des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) response was assessed in patients who had baseline AFP levels ≥200 ng/ml or DCP ≥60 mAU/ml; a positive response was defined as a reduction of >50% compared to baseline 1 month after TACE.

RESULTS

A baseline AFP level ≥200 ng/ml was associated with a poor overall survival (OS) (29.4 vs. 6.1 months; p <0.0001). AFP response had no significantly prognostic effects on the OS. Conversely, although the baseline DCP did not influence the OS, DCP responders showed a significantly better OS than nonresponders (67.0 vs. 19.8 months, p = 0.020). The baseline AFP (p = 0.004) and initial tumor response evaluated by the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) (p = 0.012) were found to be independent predictors of the OS. The combination of the baseline AFP and initial assessment by mRECIST allowed stratification of the OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of the baseline AFP level and mRECIST is useful for the early prediction of the OS in HCC patients who underwent TACE.

Nomogram of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system for individual prognostic prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The predictive accuracy of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system on a single patient is not clear. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict individualized survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the BCLC system.

METHODS

A total of 3179 patients were randomly grouped into derivation (n = 2119) and validation (n = 1060) sets. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to generate the nomogram from tumour burden, cirrhosis and performance status (PS). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by concordance indices and calibration tests.

RESULTS

Beta coefficients from the Cox model were used to assign nomogram points to different degrees of tumour burden, Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and PS. A nomogram with a scale of 0-26 was developed and the predicted survival rates at 3 and 5 years were calculated. The derivation set had a concordance index of 0.766 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.686-0.838); and the validation set showed a concordance index of 0.775 (95% CI: 0.607-0.909). The calibration plots were close to the 45-degree line for 3- and 5-year survival prediction of BCLC stages 0-C patients in both derivation and validation groups. For BCLC stage D patients, calibration plots in both groups showed deviation from the 45-degree line for 3- and 5-year prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides quantitative evidence to support the prognostic ability of BCLC system. This straightforward and easy-to-use nomogram may accurately predict the survival at 3 and 5 years for individual HCC patient except for BCLC stage D patients.

Anti-α-enolase is a prognostic marker in postoperative lung cancer patients

Our previous studies suggest that antibodies against ENO1 (anti-ENO1 Ab) have a protective role in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma. In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of anti-ENO1 Ab levels in non-small cell lung carcinoma patients undergoing surgery. Circulating levels of anti-ENO1 Ab were assessed in 85 non-small cell lung carcinoma patients before and after surgery, and were correlated with clinical outcome. After surgery, patients with a higher increase of anti-ENO1 Ab had a lower hazard ratio and a better progression-free survival. Using animal models, we demonstrated that tumor cells reduce the circulating levels of anti-ENO1 Ab through physical absorption and neutralization of anti-ENO1 Ab with surface-expressed and secreted ENO1, respectively. Mice transplanted with ENO1-overexpressing tumors generated ENO1-specific regulatory T cells to suppress the production of anti-ENO1 Ab. Our results suggest that the increase of anti-ENO1 Ab may reflect anti-tumor immune responses and serve as a prognostic marker in postoperative lung cancer patients.

Downregulation of betaine homocysteine methyltransferase (BHMT) in hepatocellular carcinoma associates with poor prognosis

Betaine homocysteine methyltransferase (BHMT) catalyzes the synthesis of methionine using betaine and homocysteine (Hcy), which is restricted to the liver and kidney. Impaired BHMT pathway has been associated with hepatocellular carcinogenesis in Bhmt-/- mice model, and decreased BHMT was observed in a small sample of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, the prognostic significance of BHMT in HCC has not been elucidated. This study aimed to examine the expression of BHMT in HCC and investigate the relationship between its expression and prognosis of HCC patients. BHMT expression was analyzed in 68 paired HCC samples (HCC tissues vs matched adjacent non-cancerous liver tissues), 115 paraffin-embedded HCC sections (primary cohort), and 65 paraffin-embedded HCC sections (validation cohort) using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The results of IHC analysis showed that BHMT was decreased in tumorous tissues in 85.2 % (58/68) of cases compared to the corresponding adjacent non-tumorous liver tissues. Further correlation analyses indicated that the decreased BHMT expression was closely correlated with serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) (p = 0.011), tumor size (p = 0.039), and vascular invasion (p = 0.017). Moreover, HCC patients with low BHMT expression had shorter overall survival (OS) and time to recurrence (TTR) than those with high BHMT expression in both primary cohort (p < 0.0001) and validation cohort (p < 0.05) assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method. In addition, multivariate analysis showed that BHMT was an independent prognostic factor for OS and TTR in the two cohorts (all p < 0.005). Collectively, our study demonstrated that BHMT could be served as a potential prognostic marker for HCC patients.

A three-factor preoperative scoring model predicts risk of recurrence after liver resection or transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with preserved liver function

BACKGROUND

No staging systems of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are tailored for assessing recurrence risk. We sought to establish a recurrence risk scoring system to predict recurrence of HCC patients receiving surgical curative treatment (liver resection or transplantation).

METHODS

We retrospectively studied 286 HCC patients with preserved liver function receiving liver resection (n=184) or transplantation (n=102). Independent risk factors were identified to construct the recurrence risk scoring model. The recurrence free survival and discriminatory ability of the model were analyzed.

RESULTS

Total tumor volume, HBsAg status, plasma fibrinogen level were included as independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival and used for constructing a 3-factor recurrence risk scoring model. The scoring model was as follows: 0.758 x HBsAg status (negative: 0; positive: 1) + 0.387 x plasma fibrinogen level (≤ 3.24 g/L: 0; >3.24 g/L: 1) + 0.633 x total tumor volume (≤ 107.5 cm3: 0; > 107.5 cm3: 1). The cut-off value was set to 1.02, and we defined the patients with the score ≤ 1.02 as a low risk group and those with the score > 1.02 as a high risk group. The 3-year recurrence-free survival rate was significantly higher in the low risk group compared with that in the high risk group (67.9% vs 41.3%, P < 0.001). In the subgroup analysis, liver transplantation patients had a better 3-year recurrence-free survival rate than the liver resection patients in the low risk group (80.0% vs 64.0%, P < 0.01). Additionally for patients underwent liver transplantation, we compared the recurrence risk model with the Milan criteria in the prediction of recurrence, and the 3-year recurrence survival rates were similar (80.0% vs 79.3%, P = 0.906).

CONCLUSION

Our recurrence risk scoring model is effective in categorizing recurrence risks and in predicting recurrence-free survival of HCC before potential surgical curative treatment.

Clinical implication of performance status in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma complicating with cirrhosis

Background and aims: The aims of our study were to elucidate the relationship between baseline characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients complicating with liver cirrhosis (LC) and performance status (PS) and to investigate the impact of PS on survival in patients with HCC complicating with LC.

Methods: In a total of 1003 patients diagnosed with HCC complicating with LC, we divided into two groups of PS ≥1 (n=251) and PS 0 (n=752) as evaluated by using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group criteria at the time of HCC diagnosis. Baseline characteristics between these two groups were compared. We also performed univariate and multivariate analyses of factors contributing to overall survival (OS).

Results: The median follow-up period was 1.6 years in the PS ≥1 group and 3.1 years in the PS 0 group. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates after each initial therapy for HCC were 90.3%, 67.4% and 49.8%, respectively, in the PS 0 group and 73.4%, 42.0% and 17.7%, respectively, in the PS ≥1 group (P<0.001). A worse PS was significantly associated with age, gender, Child-Pugh classification, HCC stage, Japan Integrated Staging score, initial treatment option for HCC, maximum tumor size, alanine aminotransferase value, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, renal insufficiency, hyponatremia, prothrombin time prolongation, platelet count and tumor marker level. In multivariate analyses, poorer PS was an independent predictor linked to OS with a hazard ratio of 1.773 (P<0.001).

Conclusions: PS was closely associated with status of HCC patients with LC and could be an important predictor for these populations.

Toll-like receptors 3, 4 and 9 in hepatocellular carcinoma: Relationship with clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis

AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is in the 10 leading cancer types, being difficult to detect as most of patients who develop this tumor have no symptoms other than those related to their long-standing liver disease. The liver is constantly exposed to bacterial products, viral infection, alcohol or other products, which may be the cause of chronic liver damage, and thus an increasing risk for HCC. Toll-like receptors (TLR) have gained an extraordinary interest in cancer research due to their role in several biological processes such as innate immune responses, the induction of adaptive immune responses, regulation of inflammation, would healing and carcinogenesis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the expression and clinical relevance of TLR3, 4 and 9 in HCC.

METHODS

The expression levels of TLR3, TLR4 and TLR9 were analyzed in tumors from 30 patients with HCC. The analysis was performed by immunohistochemistry. Results were correlated with various clinicopathological findings and with overall survival.

RESULTS

TLR3 was significantly high in large tumors (>4 cm in diameter) compared with small tumors (P < 0.05). Our results demonstrated that patients whose tumors showed both TLR4 and TLR9 positive immunostaining had poor prognosis. In addition, TLR9 expression by fibroblast-like cells was significantly associated with a shortened overall survival (P = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrated an association between TLR3, TLR4 and TLR9 expression and tumor aggressiveness and poor prognosis in HCC.

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a poorer prognostic predictor for small hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Small hepatocellular carcinoma (SHCC) is a special type of hepatocellular carcinoma with the maximum tumor diameter ≤ 3 cm and excellent long-term outcomes. However, the prognostic factors for SHCC remain controversial. The purpose of this study is to clarify the predictive factors of SHCC.

Methods

The study population consisted of 458 patients underwent hepatectomy for single SHCC between January 2006 and December 2008. Clinical data (included age, gender, virus infection, serum alfa-fetoprotein level, cirrhosis, capsule, border), histopathologic features (included differentiation, morphology subtype, microvascular invasion, tumor infiltrative lymphocytes (TIL), inflammatory injury grade and fibrosis stage of surrounding liver), were evaluated to identify prognostic factors influencing SHCC patients’ survival and microvascular invasion.

Results

There were 384 males (83.8%) and 74 (16.2%) females with median ages of 52 years. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) durations were 53 and 54 months, respectively. About 91.9% (n = 421) SHCC were infected by Hepatitis B. One hundred forty-seven of the 446 (33.0%) patients with pre-operation serum AFP level record had serum alfa-fetoprotein (AFP) level ≥ 200 ug/ml and 178 of the 280 (63.8%) patients with post-operation serum AFP level record had AFP level ≥ 20 ug/ml. Liver cirrhosis was present in 411 cases (89.7%), while 434 (97.3%) tumors had clear border, and 250 (55.6%) tumors were encapsulated.

MVI was identified in 83 patients (18.1%). In univariate analysis, a significant association between the presence of MVI and shortened PFS and OS was found (p = 0.012, 0.028, respectively). Histological differentiation had strong relationship with MVI (p = 0.009), in terms of MVI was more easily presented in patients with worse histological differentiation. In patients with MVI, worse survival was correlated with female patients, patients with G2 or G3 histological differentiation, pre-operation serum AFP level ≥ 200 ug/ml or post-operation serum AFP level ≥ 20 ug/ml, and TIL ≥ 50/HPF.

Conclusions

MVI is an independent poorer prognostic factor for PFS and OS of single SHCC patients. Tumor histological differentiation was closely related with MVI.

Methodological assessment of HCC literature

Despite the fact that the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a major health problem, very few interventions are available for this disease, and only sorafenib is approved for the treatment of advanced disease. Of note, only very few interventions have been thoroughly evaluated over time for HCC patients compared with several hundreds in other, equally highly lethal, tumours. Additionally, clinical trials in HCC have often been questioned for poor design and methodological issues. As a consequence, a gap between what is measured in clinical trials and what clinicians have to face in daily practice often occurs. As a result of this scenario, even the most recent guidelines for treatment of HCC patients use low strength evidence to make recommendations. In this review, we will discuss some of the potential methodological issues hindering a rational development of new treatments for HCC patients.

Liver transplantation should be offered to patients with small solitary hepatocellular carcinoma and a positive serum alpha fetoprotein rather than resection

BACKGROUND

As debate continues as to what surgical modality should be offered to patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, the authors submit that serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) is an important variable to consider.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database, patients with solitary tumors within the Milan criteria were further stratified into 2 groups, those who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and those who underwent segmentectomy, lobectomy, or extended lobectomy (resection). Patients were further grouped according to serum AFP status (negative or positive). Relative survival was retrospectively evaluated for 3 years using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

In the AFP-negative group, resection (n = 165) offered equivalent survival compared with OLT (n = 116); 3-year survival was 73.8% and 81.6%, respectively (P = .245). In the AFP-positive group, 3-year survival for resection (n = 200) was 59%, while survival was 75.3% for OLT (n = 181), which showed a clear survival advantage (P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study demonstrate that patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma lesions within the Milan criteria and AFP-positive status should not undergo resection but rather be offered OLT.

Performance status in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: determinants, prognostic impact, and ability to improve the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system

Performance status is included in the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Few studies specifically evaluated the role of performance status in patients with HCC. This study investigated its distribution, determinants, and prognostic impact, aiming to improve the performance of the BCLC system. A total of 2,381 HCC patients were enrolled. Performance status was determined according to the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale. The prognostic ability of the original and three modified BCLC systems in HCC patients was compared by the Akaike information criterion (AIC). There were 60, 17, 11, 8, and 4% of patients who were classified as performance status 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. A worse performance status significantly correlated with age, alcoholism, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, renal insufficiency, hyponatremia, and prothrombin time prolongation (all P < 0.001). Larger tumor burden, poorer residual liver function, more frequent vascular invasion, and diabetes mellitus were also observed in patients with worse performance status (all P < 0.001). Patients with poorer performance status more often received best supportive care (P < 0.001). In the Cox proportional hazards model, performance status was an independent prognostic predictor and the long-term survival tended to be worse in patients with progressively poor performance status (all P < 0.05). Reassigning patients with performance status 0 or 1 to stage B provided the lowest AIC among the four BCLC-based staging systems.

CONCLUSION

Performance status is strongly associated with both tumoral and cirrhotic factors and accurately predicts long-term survival in HCC patients. Modification of the BCLC system based on performance status may further enhance its prognostic ability in patients with early to advanced cancer stage.

Prognostic significance of alpha-fetoprotein status in the outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma after treatment of transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been used as a diagnostic biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its prognostic significance is not well defined. This study was performed to classify the prognostic significance of AFP status in HCC patients after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

METHODS

Four hundred forty-one HCC patients from a prospective maintained database with pathologic confirmation including 139 with normal AFP levels and 302 with elevated AFP levels were retrospectively studied for prognostic significance of AFP in treatment response and survival after TACE. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the prognostic factors.

RESULTS

There were significant differences in overall survival (OS) after TACE between AFP-negative and AFP-positive HCC patients when the AFP cutoff value was defined as 20 ng/ml (P < 0.0001). Among the AFP-positive patients, different AFP levels had no significantly prognostic effects on OS after TACE (P = 0.093). Multivariate analysis revealed that AFP status for AFP-negative or positive was an independent prognostic factor for HCC patients after TACE (P = 0.001), along with γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level (P = 0.004) and tumor diameter (P < 0.0001). In addition, there were significant differences in clinicopathologic features between AFP-positive and AFP-negative patients with regard to age, gender, alanine transferase level, GGT level, tumor diameter, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with AFP-positive HCC patients, patients with AFP-negative status have a better treatment response and prognosis after TACE.