Interferon therapy reduces the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma: national surveillance program of cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C in Japan. IHIT Study Group. Inhibition of Hepatocarcinogenesis by Interferon Therapy

Burden of chronic hepatitis B and C infections in 2015 and future trends in Japan: A simulation study

Background

Determining the number of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C virus (HCV) infections is essential to assess the progress towards the World Health Organization 2030 viral hepatitis elimination goals. Using data from the Japanese National Database (NDB), we calculated the number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015 and predicted the trend until 2035.

Methods

NDB and first-time blood donors data were used to calculate the number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015. A Markov simulation was applied to predict chronic infections until 2035 using transition probabilities calculated from NDB data.

Findings

The total number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015 in Japan was 1,905,187–2,490,873 (HCV:877,841–1,302,179, HBV:1,027,346–1,188,694), of which 923,661–1,509,347 were undiagnosed or diagnosed but not linked to care (“not engaged in care”), and 981,526 were engaged in care. Chronic HBV and HCV infections are expected to be 923,313–1,304,598 in 2030, and 739,118–1,045,884 in 2035. Compared to 2015, by 2035, the number of persons with HCV not engaged in care will decline by 59·8 – 76·1% and 86·5% for patients in care. For HBV, a 47·3 – 49·3% decrease is expected for persons not engaged in care and a decline of 26·0% for patients engaged in care.

Interpretation

Although the burden of HBV and HCV is expected to decrease by 2035, challenges in controlling hepatitis remain. Improved and innovative screening strategies with linkage to care for HCV cases, and a functional cure for HBV are needed.

Funding

Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatitis C virus infection in Japan

AIM

The management of hepatitis C virus (HCV) has changed with the advent of interferon (IFN)-free treatment and the declining prevalence of HCV infection, which may impact the cost-effectiveness of the screening. We aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness and clinical outcomes of three screening strategies in the Japanese general population: no screening, screening plus IFN-based therapy, and screening plus IFN-free therapy.

METHODS

We developed a decision analytic Markov model for screening intervention and natural history of HCV. Model parameters were derived from published literature. A lifetime horizon and the healthcare payer perspective were taken. Subanalyses included high screening scenario with improved rates of screening and attending referral, in addition to heterogeneity analysis by age subgroup.

RESULTS

In the base case, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in the Japanese general population aged 40-89 years was ¥1 124 482 and ¥1 085 183 per quality-adjusted life year gained for screening plus IFN-free therapy compared with no screening and screening plus IFN-based therapy, respectively. Screening plus IFN-free therapy remained cost-effective below ¥5 000 000 per quality-adjusted life year gained in sensitivity analyses. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were lower in the younger population. Nearly 0.2% of HCV-related deaths were avoided by 1.5% of the general population screened followed by IFN-free therapy relative to no screening; the impact was greater with improved rates of screening and attending referral.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening and subsequent IFN-free therapy for HCV appears to be cost-effective. Early diagnosis and treatment would produce a favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Improved rates of screening and attending referral would result in further reduction of disease progression.

Impact of antiviral therapy on hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The long-term clinical outcomes of antiviral therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis C are uncertain in terms of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related morbidity and mortality according to the response to antiviral therapy. This study aimed to assess the impact of antiviral treatment on the development of HCC and mortality in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted for studies that evaluated the antiviral efficacy for patients with chronic hepatitis C or assessed the development of HCC or mortality between SVR (sustained virologic response) and non-SVR patients. The methodological quality of the enrolled publications was evaluated using Risk of Bias table or Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Random-effect model meta-analyses and meta-regression were performed. Publication bias was assessed.

Results

In total, 59 studies (4 RCTs, 15 prospective and 40 retrospective cohort studies) were included. Antiviral treatment was associated with reduced development of HCC (vs. no treatment; OR 0.392, 95% CI 0.275–0.557), and this effect was intensified when SVR was achieved (vs. no SVR, OR: 0.203, 95% CI 0.164–0.251). Antiviral treatment was associated with lower all-cause mortality (vs. no treatment; OR 0.380, 95% CI 0.295–0.489) and liver-specific mortality (OR 0.363, 95% CI 0.260–0.508). This rate was also intensified when SVR was achieved [all-cause mortality (vs. no SVR, OR 0.255, 95% CI 0.199–0.326), liver-specific mortality (OR 0.126, 95% CI 0.094–0.169)]. Sensitivity analyses revealed robust results, and a small study effect was minimal.

Conclusions

In patients with chronic hepatitis C, antiviral therapy can reduce the development of HCC and mortality, especially when SVR is achieved.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12876-017-0606-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Buying cures versus renting health: Financing health care with consumer loans

A crisis is building over the prices of new transformative therapies for cancer, hepatitis C virus infection, and rare diseases. The clinical imperative is to offer these therapies as broadly and rapidly as possible. We propose a practical way to increase drug affordability through health care loans (HCLs)-the equivalent of mortgages for large health care expenses. HCLs allow patients in both multipayer and single-payer markets to access a broader set of therapeutics, including expensive short-duration treatments that are curative. HCLs also link payment to clinical benefit and should help lower per-patient cost while incentivizing the development of transformative therapies rather than those that offer small incremental advances. Moreover, we propose the use of securitization-a well-known financial engineering method-to finance a large diversified pool of HCLs through both debt and equity. Numerical simulations suggest that securitization is viable for a wide range of economic environments and cost parameters, allowing a much broader patient population to access transformative therapies while also aligning the interests of patients, payers, and the pharmaceutical industry.

A comprehensive long-term prognosis of chronic hepatitis C patients with antiviral therapy: a meta-analysis of studies from 2008 to 2014

CONTEXT

Attaining a sustained virological response with antiviral therapy is a sign of clinical cure for chronic hepatitis C patients. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the long-term efficiency and outcome of antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis C who attained a sustained virological response.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A literature search was performed on published articles between January 2008 and February 2014. Patients with Hepatitis C who received interferon with or without ribavirin therapy were enrolled. Relative risks were estimated using either fixed or random effect models.

RESULTS

Patients who attained sustained virological response had a less risk (85%) for all-cause mortality and about 63% reduced risk of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence than those who did not achieve sustained virological response. Based on deeply analysis, the stage of liver fibrosis was a risk factor at baseline for the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Sustained virological response can reduce all-cause mortality and the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma of patients with hepatitis C. Advanced liver fibrosis is still a risk factor for the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma, in spite of hepatitis C patients attained a sustained virological response.

Association of Periodontal Diseases and Liver Fibrosis in Patients With HCV and/or HBV infection

BACKGROUND

Periodontal disease and systemic health are closely associated. However, there is no data supporting the association between periodontal disease and patients with liver diseases associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and/or hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between periodontitis and progression of liver diseases in patients with HCV and/or HBV infection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, 351 patients with HCV- and/or HBV-related liver diseases underwent screening for periodontal disease using the Salivaster® salivary occult blood test from February 2010 to June 2014. Furthermore, we examined the prevalence of fimbrillin (fimA) genotype of Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis) in 28 HCV-infected patients visited at our hospital between January 2013 and June 2014. P. gingivalis with fimA genotype with types I to V was further detected using a PCR method.

RESULTS

Of 351 patients, 76 patients (group 1) had a strong positive result for salivary occult blood test and 275 patients (group 2) had weak positive or negative test results. Significant factors between the groups were obesity, level of AST, ALT, LDH, ALP, Alb, D.Bil, T.cho, AFP, platelets (Plt), IRI, HOMA-IR, current interferon (IFN) treatment and the daily frequency of tooth brushing. Between-groups analysis indicated that total protein (T.pro) level and liver fibrosis were significant factors. According to multivariate analysis, five factors were associated with periodontal disease as Plt count below 80000, brushing teeth only once a day, current IFN treatment, aged 65 years or older and obesity. The adjusted odds ratios for these five factors were 5.80, 3.46, 2.87, 2.50 and 2.33, respectively, and each was statistically significant. Twenty-eight saliva specimens had positive results for P. gingivalis with fimA genotype types I to V. The prevalence of fimA genotype II was higher in 14 patients with liver cirrhosis or a history of hepatocellular carcinoma treatment (group B, 50.00%) than 14 patients with only hepatitis C (group A, 21.43%).

CONCLUSIONS

Periodontitis might be associated with progression of viral liver disease; hence, controlling oral disease is essential for the prevention and management of liver fibrosis.

The impact of hepatitis C burden: an evidence-based approach

BACKGROUND

Infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been considered a major cause of mortality, morbidity and resource utilisation in the US. In addition, HCV is the main cause of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) in the US. Recent developments in the diagnosis and treatment of HCV, including new recommendations pertaining to screening for HCV by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and newer treatment regimens with high efficacy, short duration and the potential for interferon-free therapies, have energised the health care practitioners regarding HCV management.

AIM

To assess the full impact of HCV burden on clinical, economic and patient-reported outcomes.

METHODS

An expert panel was convened to assess the full impact of HCV burden on a number of important outcomes using an evidence-based approach predicated on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology. The literature was summarised, graded using an evidence-based approach and presented during the workshop. Workshop presentations were intended to review recent, relevant evidence-based literature and provide graded summary statements pertaining to HCV burden on topics including the relationships between HCV and the development of important outcomes.

RESULTS

The associations of HCV with cirrhosis, HCC, liver-related mortality, type 2 diabetes mellitus, rheumatological diseases and quality of life impairments are supported by strong evidence. Also, there is strong evidence that sustained viral eradication of HCV can improve important outcomes such as mortality and quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence suggests that HCV has been associated with tremendous clinical, economic and quality of life burden.

Individualized hepatocellular carcinoma risk: The challenges for designing successful chemoprevention strategies

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) develops in the context of environmental risk factors like chronic viral hepatitis, diabetes and alcohol exposure, often associated to an increased risk of cirrhosis. Antiviral treatments that are effective to counteract hepatitis B and C may also attenuate the risk of tumor development. However, since hepatitis B-related carcinogenesis is promoted independently of the onset of cirrhosis, such antiviral treatments as nucleo(t)side analogs can promote regression of cirrhosis, prevent clinical decompensation and variceal bleeding but not HCC. This means that in successfully treated patients with cirrhosis, HCC is often the consequence of their extended survival. In hepatitis C patients, a sustained virological response to interferon-based therapies can reduce the rate of HCC development, even in patients with cirrhosis who experience histological regression of their liver disease. Future therapies aimed at this endpoint in at risk populations should take into consideration pretreatment patient stratification for host, viral and environmental risk factors. In this context the recent discovery of single nucleotide polymorphisms involved in the immune system function and tumorigenesis, might permit enrollment of populations of patients enriched with HCC risk factors for targeted chemopreventive therapies. This could finally pave the way to personalized algorithms, as already seen in the diagnosis and treatment schemes for chemoprevention.