Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers

Insights from modelling malaria vaccines for policy decisions: the focus on RTS,S

Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform decisions throughout product development pathways from pre-clinical studies to country implementation of novel health interventions. This review illustrates the utility of simulation approaches by reviewing the literature on malaria vaccine modelling, with a focus on its link to the development of policy guidance for the first licensed product, RTS,S/AS01. The main contributions of modelling studies have been in inferring the mechanism of action and efficacy profile of RTS,S; to predicting the public health impact; and economic modelling mainly comprising cost-effectiveness analysis. The value of both product-specific and generic modelling of vaccines is highlighted.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria interventions using disability adjusted life years: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to be a public health problem despite past and on-going control efforts. For sustenance of control efforts to achieve the malaria elimination goal, it is important that the most cost-effective interventions are employed. This paper reviews studies on cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions using disability-adjusted life years.

METHODS

A review of literature was conducted through a literature search of international peer-reviewed journals as well as grey literature. Searches were conducted through Medline (PubMed), EMBASE and Google Scholar search engines. The searches included articles published in English for the period from 1996 to 2016. The inclusion criteria for the study were type of malaria intervention, year of publication and cost-effectiveness ratio in terms of cost per DALY averted. We included 40 studies which specifically used the DALY metric in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of malaria interventions.

RESULTS

The majority of the reviewed studies (75%) were done using data from African settings with the majority of the interventions (60.0%) targeting all age categories. Interventions included case treatment, prophylaxis, vector control, insecticide treated nets, early detection, environmental management, diagnosis and educational programmes. Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine was the most common drug of choice in malaria prophylaxis, while artemisinin-based combination therapies were the most common drugs for case treatment. Based on guidelines for CEA, most interventions proved cost-effective in terms of cost per DALYs averted for each intervention.

CONCLUSION

The DALY metric is a useful tool for determining the cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions. This paper demonstrates the importance of CEA in informing decisions made by policy makers.

Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact

BACKGROUND

Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses advanced analytical methods (e.g. simulation, optimisation, decision analysis) to better understand complex systems and aid in decision-making. Herein, we present a scoping review of the use of OR to analyse issues in global health, with an emphasis on health equity and research impact. A systematic search of five databases was designed to identify relevant published literature. A global overview of 1099 studies highlights the geographic distribution of OR and common OR methods used. From this collection of literature, a narrative description of the use of OR across four main application areas of global health - health systems and operations, clinical medicine, public health and health innovation - is also presented. The theme of health equity is then explored in detail through a subset of 44 studies. Health equity is a critical element of global health that cuts across all four application areas, and is an issue particularly amenable to analysis through OR. Finally, we present seven select cases of OR analyses that have been implemented or have influenced decision-making in global health policy or practice. Based on these cases, we identify three key drivers for success in bridging the gap between OR and global health policy, namely international collaboration with stakeholders, use of contextually appropriate data, and varied communication outlets for research findings. Such cases, however, represent a very small proportion of the literature found.

CONCLUSION

Poor availability of representative and quality data, and a lack of collaboration between those who develop OR models and stakeholders in the contexts where OR analyses are intended to serve, were found to be common challenges for effective OR modelling in global health.

Integrating Transgenic Vector Manipulation with Clinical Interventions to Manage Vector-Borne Diseases

Many vector-borne diseases lack effective vaccines and medications, and the limitations of traditional vector control have inspired novel approaches based on using genetic engineering to manipulate vector populations and thereby reduce transmission. Yet both the short- and long-term epidemiological effects of these transgenic strategies are highly uncertain. If neither vaccines, medications, nor transgenic strategies can by themselves suffice for managing vector-borne diseases, integrating these approaches becomes key. Here we develop a framework to evaluate how clinical interventions (i.e., vaccination and medication) can be integrated with transgenic vector manipulation strategies to prevent disease invasion and reduce disease incidence. We show that the ability of clinical interventions to accelerate disease suppression can depend on the nature of the transgenic manipulation deployed (e.g., whether vector population reduction or replacement is attempted). We find that making a specific, individual strategy highly effective may not be necessary for attaining public-health objectives, provided suitable combinations can be adopted. However, we show how combining only partially effective antimicrobial drugs or vaccination with transgenic vector manipulations that merely temporarily lower vector competence can amplify disease resurgence following transient suppression. Thus, transgenic vector manipulation that cannot be sustained can have adverse consequences—consequences which ineffective clinical interventions can at best only mitigate, and at worst temporarily exacerbate. This result, which arises from differences between the time scale on which the interventions affect disease dynamics and the time scale of host population dynamics, highlights the importance of accounting for the potential delay in the effects of deploying public health strategies on long-term disease incidence. We find that for systems at the disease-endemic equilibrium, even modest perturbations induced by weak interventions can exhibit strong, albeit transient, epidemiological effects. This, together with our finding that under some conditions combining strategies could have transient adverse epidemiological effects suggests that a relatively long time horizon may be necessary to discern the efficacy of alternative intervention strategies.

Despite decades of attempted vector control, several vector-borne diseases remain endemic. Recent high-profile studies suggest that candidate vaccines, particularly for dengue, may be less than completely effective as public health interventions. Nevertheless, the epidemiological consequences of using other novel approaches (e.g., transgenic strategies to reduce or replace vector populations) remain highly uncertain. Faced with unclear prospects of any one strategy succeeding in isolation, there is increasing interest in designing a comprehensive public health response to manage vector-borne diseases. Here we use a relatively simple model to study how combining vaccines, transgenic vector manipulation and antimicrobial medications can facilitate disease management. We explain why the epidemiological consequences for combining strategies are not expected to merely sum their effects. Contrary to the prevailing assumption that comprehensive disease management always yields public health benefits, we find integrating transgenic vector manipulation with clinical interventions can, in some cases, temporarily exacerbate the adverse consequences of any one strategy failing. These results highlight the need for system-specific modeling efforts aimed at assessing whether our conclusions apply to specific vector-borne diseases. We outline the implications for proceeding with public health responses integrating currently available products, as well as assessing their efficacy.

Workshop report: Malaria vaccine development in Europe--preparing for the future

The deployment of a safe and effective malaria vaccine will be an important tool for the control of malaria and the reduction in malaria deaths. With the launch of the 2030 Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap, the malaria community has updated the goals and priorities for the development of such a vaccine and is now paving the way for a second phase of malaria vaccine development. During a workshop in Brussels in November 2014, hosted by the European Vaccine Initiative, key players from the European, North American and African malaria vaccine community discussed European strategies for future malaria vaccine development in the global context. The recommendations of the European malaria community should guide researchers, policy makers and funders of global health research and development in fulfilling the ambitious goals set in the updated Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap.

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

BACKGROUND

The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate recently completed Phase III trials in 11 African sites. Recommendations for its deployment will partly depend on predictions of public health impact in endemic countries. Previous predictions of these used only limited information on underlying vaccine properties and have not considered country-specific contextual data.

METHODS

Each Phase III trial cohort was simulated explicitly using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, and many hypothetical vaccine profiles. The true profile was estimated by Bayesian fitting of these models to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria in both trial arms over 18 months of follow-up. Health impacts of implementation via two vaccine schedules in 43 endemic sub-Saharan African countries, using country-specific prevalence, access to care, immunisation coverage and demography data, were predicted via weighted averaging over many simulations.

RESULTS

The efficacy against infection of three doses of vaccine was initially approximately 65 % (when immunising 6-12 week old infants) and 80 % (children 5-17 months old), with a 1 year half-life (exponential decay). Either schedule will avert substantial disease, but predicted impact strongly depends on the decay rate of vaccine effects and average transmission intensity.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time Phase III site- and time-specific data were available to estimate both the underlying profile of RTS,S/AS01 and likely country-specific health impacts. Initial efficacy will probably be high, but decay rapidly. Adding RTS,S to existing control programs, assuming continuation of current levels of malaria exposure and of health system performance, will potentially avert 100-580 malaria deaths and 45,000 to 80,000 clinical episodes per 100,000 fully vaccinated children over an initial 10-year phase.

The case for a rational genome-based vaccine against malaria

Historically, vaccines have been designed to mimic the immunity induced by natural exposure to the target pathogen, but this approach has not been effective for any parasitic pathogen of humans or complex pathogens that cause chronic disease in humans, such as Plasmodium. Despite intense efforts by many laboratories around the world on different aspects of Plasmodium spp. molecular and cell biology, epidemiology and immunology, progress towards the goal of an effective malaria vaccine has been disappointing. The premise of rational vaccine design is to induce the desired immune response against the key pathogen antigens or epitopes targeted by protective immune responses. We advocate that development of an optimally efficacious malaria vaccine will need to improve on nature, and that this can be accomplished by rational vaccine design facilitated by mining genomic, proteomic and transcriptomic datasets in the context of relevant biological function. In our opinion, modern genome-based rational vaccine design offers enormous potential above and beyond that of whole-organism vaccines approaches established over 200 years ago where immunity is likely suboptimal due to the many genetic and immunological host-parasite adaptations evolved to allow the Plasmodium parasite to coexist in the human host, and which are associated with logistic and regulatory hurdles for production and delivery.

Genome-based vaccine design: the promise for malaria and other infectious diseases

Vaccines are one of the most effective interventions to improve public health, however, the generation of highly effective vaccines for many diseases has remained difficult. Three chronic diseases that characterise these difficulties include malaria, tuberculosis and HIV, and they alone account for half of the global infectious disease burden. The whole organism vaccine approach pioneered by Jenner in 1796 and refined by Pasteur in 1857 with the "isolate, inactivate and inject" paradigm has proved highly successful for many viral and bacterial pathogens causing acute disease but has failed with respect to malaria, tuberculosis and HIV as well as many other diseases. A significant advance of the past decade has been the elucidation of the genomes, proteomes and transcriptomes of many pathogens. This information provides the foundation for new 21st Century approaches to identify target antigens for the development of vaccines, drugs and diagnostic tests. Innovative genome-based vaccine strategies have shown potential for a number of challenging pathogens, including malaria. We advocate that genome-based rational vaccine design will overcome the problem of poorly immunogenic, poorly protective vaccines that has plagued vaccine developers for many years.