Clustering of serotypes in a longitudinal study of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in three day care centres

Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7

Although mean efficacy of multivalent pneumococcus vaccines has been intensively studied, variance in vaccine efficacy (VE) has been overlooked. Different net individual protection across settings can be driven by environmental conditions, local serotype and clonal composition, as well as by socio-demographic and genetic host factors. Understanding efficacy variation has implications for population-level effectiveness and other eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Here I show that realized VE can vary across epidemiological settings, by applying a multi-site-one-model approach to data post-vaccination. I analyse serotype prevalence dynamics following PCV7, in asymptomatic carriage in children attending day care in Portugal, Norway, France, Greece, Hungary and Hong-Kong. Model fitting to each dataset provides site-specific estimates for vaccine efficacy against acquisition, and pneumococcal transmission parameters. According to this model, variable serotype replacement across sites can be explained through variable PCV7 efficacy, ranging from 40% in Norway to 10% in Hong-Kong. While the details of how this effect is achieved remain to be determined, here I report three factors negatively associated with the VE readout, including initial prevalence of serotype 19F, daily mean temperature, and the Gini index. The study warrants more attention on local modulators of vaccine performance and calls for predictive frameworks within and across populations.

Cocolonization of Pneumococcal Serotypes in Healthy Children Attending Day Care Centers: Molecular Versus Conventional Methods

OBJECTIVES

Pneumococci are common colonizer, especially of children, and cocolonization of different serotypes is an important factor for intraspecies genetic exchange. The aim of this study was to analyze pneumococcal carriage and serotype distribution in unvaccinated healthy children in Iceland and compare conventional culture methods and molecular methods using DNA extracted directly from the samples.

METHODS

Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 514 children aged 2-6 year attending day care centers in Reykjavik in 2009. The swabs were selectively cultured for pneumococci and the isolates serotyped using latex agglutination. DNA was also extracted directly from the swabs and serotyped using a multiplex PCR panel designed to detect vaccine serotypes and the most commonly carried non-vaccine serotypes.

RESULT

Pneumococcal carriage was detected in 391 (76.1%) of the children using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and in 371 (72.2%) using conventional methods. Cocolonization was detected in 92 (23.5%) of the carriers when PCR method was used and in 30 (8.1%) when conventional methods were used, detecting 500 and 401 strains, respectively (P < 0.0001). The most common serotypes were 23F, 19A, 6B, 6A and 19F, rates 13-8%. The number of isolates of serotypes included in the 10-valent and 13-valent vaccines and detected by PCR were 234 (58.4%) and 363 (90.5%), respectively and by conventional methods 186 (46.4%) and 293 (73.1%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Cocolonization was detected in a fourth of the children carrying pneumococci using DNA extracted directly from nasopharyngeal swabs. The rate of carriage was very high, but no serotype dominated, and the children were commonly colonized by vaccine serotypes, especially cocolonized children.

Decreased Carriage and Genetic Shifts in the Streptococcus pneumoniae Population After Changing the Seven-valent to the Thirteen-valent Pneumococcal Vaccine in Norway

BACKGROUND

Shifts in the pneumococcal population colonizing healthy children are expected after switching from a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) to a 13-valent (PCV13) in the childhood immunization program. We assessed effects of the switch by comparing pneumococcal carriage and serotype and genetic diversity of pneumococci carried by children in the PCV13-era with those carried in the prevaccination-era and PCV7-era.

METHODS

Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained in autumn 2013 from children attending day-care centers (874 swabs, 583 isolates). Serotyping, multilocus sequence typing and antimicrobial susceptibility testing were performed on all isolates. Results were compared with samples from 2006 (610 swabs, 538 isolates) and 2008 (600 swabs, 562 isolates).

RESULTS

The carriage prevalence in 2013 was 62 of 100 children (95% confidence intervals: 58-66), a significant decrease from 2006 and 2008. PCV13 serotypes accounted for 7% of isolates in 2013. Non-PCV13 prevalence increased from 2006 to 2008 [prevalence ratio: 1.73 (1.40-2.15)] but remained stable in 2013 [0.99 (0.88-1.12)]. Still, non-PCV13 serotypes 21, 23B, 23A and 22F had increased. In 2013, the serotype and genetic diversity had decreased slightly, and distinct serotype and genetic profiles clustered more within day-care centers compared with the earlier samples. Serotype switch was uncommon. Overall, antimicrobial resistance was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Carriage of PCV13 serotypes has decreased without a coinciding increase in non-PCV13 serotypes. The serotype and genetic shifts among non-PCV13 serotypes suggest that a new equilibrium has not yet been reached. As the few non-PCV13 serotypes that increased have generally a lower invasive capacity than vaccine serotypes, direct and indirect protection of PCV13 on invasive pneumococcal disease can be expected to continue.

Streptococcus pneumoniae in saliva of Dutch primary school children

While nasopharyngeal sampling is the gold standard for the detection of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage, historically seen, saliva sampling also seems highly sensitive for pneumococcal detection. We investigated S. pneumoniae carriage in saliva from fifty schoolchildren by conventional and molecular methods. Saliva was first culture-enriched for pneumococci, after which, DNA was extracted from all bacterial growth and tested by quantitative-PCR (qPCR) for pneumococcus-specific genes lytA and piaA. Next, serotype composition of the samples was determined by serotype-specific qPCRs, conventional-PCRs (cPCR) and sequencing of cPCR amplicons. Although only 2 (4%) of 50 samples were positive by conventional diagnostic culture, 44 (88%) were positive for pneumococci by qPCR. In total, we detected the presence of at least 81 pneumococcal strains representing 20 serotypes in samples from 44 carriers with 23 carriers (52%) positive for multiple (up to 6) serotypes. The number of serotypes detected per sample correlated with pneumococcal abundance. This study shows that saliva could be used as a tool for future pneumococcal surveillance studies. Furthermore, high rates of pneumococcal carriage and co-carriage of multiple pneumococcal strains together with a large number of serotypes in circulation suggests a ubiquitous presence of S. pneumoniae in saliva of school-aged children. Our results also suggest that factors promoting pneumococcal carriage within individual hosts may weaken competitive interactions between S. pneumoniae strains.

Diet as a risk factor for pneumococcal carriage and otitis media: a cross-sectional study among children in day care centers

Background

Pharyngeal bacteria are exposed to different sugar conditions depending on the diet of the child. We hypothesized that dietary factors such as daily intake of carbohydrates could be associated with pneumococcal carriage and the occurrence of otitis media in children.

Methods

Our study design was a cross-sectional study among 1006 children attending child day care centers. Parents filled in a food frequency questionnaire. Oropharyngeal swabs were collected from each child. The primary outcome was the occurrence of pneumococcal carriage and the secondary outcome the number of acute otitis media episodes during life. Principal component analysis was used to group dietary intake into nine factors. The models were adjusted for age, gender of the child and educational level of the mother.

Results

The dietary factor which included high consumption of sweet pastries and jam was associated with an increased risk of pneumococcal carriage (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.36, P-value 0.04). The factor including frequent consumption of fruit and berries was associated with a decreased risk of acute otitis (regression coefficient −0.51, 95% CI −0.98 to −0.03, P = 0.04). A high intake of consumption of sweets and snacks (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.80, P = 0.03) was associated with an increased risk of caries.

Conclusions

Diet was associated with a risk of pneumococcal carriage and the occurrence of otitis media. Diet may thus be a modifiable risk factor for the occurrence of acute otitis media.

Optimal serotype compositions for Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination under serotype replacement

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination has proved highly effective in eliminating vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage and disease. However, the potential adverse effects of serotype replacement remain a major concern when implementing routine childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programmes. Applying a concise predictive model, we present a ready-to-use quantitative tool to investigate the implications of serotype replacement on the net effectiveness of vaccination against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and to guide in the selection of optimal vaccine serotype compositions. We utilise pre-vaccination data on pneumococcal carriage and IPD and assume partial or complete elimination of vaccine-type carriage, its replacement by non-vaccine-type carriage, and stable case-to-carrier ratios (probability of IPD per carriage episode). The model predicts that the post-vaccination IPD incidences in Finland for currently available vaccine serotype compositions can eventually decrease among the target age group of children <5 years of age by 75%. However, due to replacement through herd effects, the decrease among the older population is predicted to be much less (20–40%). We introduce a sequential algorithm for the search of optimal serotype compositions and assess the robustness of inferences to uncertainties in data and assumptions about carriage and IPD. The optimal serotype composition depends on the age group of interest and some serotypes may be highly beneficial vaccine types in one age category (e.g. 6B in children), while being disadvantageous in another. The net effectiveness will be improved only if the added serotype has a higher case-to-carrier ratio than the average case-to-carrier ratio of the current non-vaccine types and the degree of improvement in effectiveness depends on the carriage incidence of the serotype. The serotype compositions of currently available pneumococcal vaccines are not optimal and the effectiveness of vaccination in the population at large could be improved by including new serotypes in the vaccine (e.g. 22 and 9N).

The bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a major contributor to child mortality worldwide. Hence, effective pneumococcal vaccination programmes are globally among the most cost-effective public health interventions. Three different conjugate vaccine compositions, targeting 7, 10 or 13 pneumococcal serotypes, have been used in infant vaccination programmes. The use of these vaccines has both decreased the disease burden and changed the patterns of pneumococcal carriage in locations where they have been in use. However, due to serotype replacement, where the lost vaccine serotype carriage is replaced by carriage of the non-vaccine serotypes, the net effect of vaccination on the disease burden has generally been milder than expected. Here, we apply a concise model for serotype replacement and present a ready-to-use tool for the prediction of patterns in post-vaccination pneumococcal incidence of carriage and invasive disease. We introduce a sequential algorithm for the identification of the most optimal additional serotypes to current vaccine formulations and demonstrate how differences in the invasiveness across serotypes imply that the disease incidence may either decrease or increase after vaccination. The methods we outline have direct relevance in decision making while reviewing the performance of the current pneumococcal vaccination programmes.

Age-dependent prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of streptococcus pneumoniae before conjugate vaccine introduction: a prediction model based on a meta-analysis

Introduction

Data on the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of S.pneumoniae in all age groups are important to help predict the impact of introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) into routine infant immunization, given the important indirect effect of the vaccine. Yet most carriage studies are limited to children under five years of age. We here explore the association between carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in children aged ≥5 years and in adults compared to children.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of studies providing carriage estimates across age groups in healthy populations not previously exposed to PCV, using MEDLINE and Embase. We used Bayesian linear meta-regression models to predict the overall carriage prevalence as well as the prevalence and distribution of vaccine and nonvaccine type (VT and NVT) serotypes in older age groups as a function of that in <5 y olds.

Results

Twenty-nine studies compromising of 20,391 individuals were included in the analysis. In all studies nasopharyngeal carriage decreased with increasing age. We found a strong positive linear association between the carriage prevalence in pre-school childen (<5 y) and both that in school aged children (5–17 y olds) and in adults. The proportion of VT serotypes isolated from carriers was consistently lower in older age groups and on average about 73% that of children <5 y among 5–17 y olds and adults respectively. We provide a prediction model to infer the carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in 5–17 y olds and adults as a function of that in children <5 years of age.

Conclusion

Such predictions are helpful for assessing the potential population-wide effects of vaccination programmes, e.g. via transmission models, and thus assist in the design of future pneumococcal conjugate vaccination strategies.

Nasopharyngeal carriage and transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae in American Indian households after a decade of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use

Background

Young children played a major role in pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage, acquisition, and transmission in the era before pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use. Few studies document pneumococcal household dynamics in the routine-PCV7 era.

Methods

We investigated age-specific acquisition, household introduction, carriage clearance, and intra-household transmission in a prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in 300 American Indian households comprising 1,072 participants between March 2006 and March 2008.

Results

Pneumococcal acquisition rates were 2–6 times higher in children than adults. More household introductions of new pneumococcal strains were attributable to children <9 years than adults ≥17 years (p<0.001), and older children (2–8 years) than younger children (<2 years) (p<0.008). Compared to children <2 years, carriage clearance was more rapid in older children (2–4 years, HR_clearance 1.53 [95% CI: 1.22, 1.91]; 5–8 years, HR_clearance 1.71 [1.36, 2.15]) and adults (HR_clearance 1.75 [1.16, 2.64]). Exposure to serotype-specific carriage in older children (2–8 years) most consistently increased the odds of subsequently acquiring that serotype for other household members.

Conclusions

In this community with a high burden of pneumococcal colonization and disease and routine PCV7 use, children (particularly older children 2–8 years) drive intra-household pneumococcal transmission: first, by acquiring, introducing, and harboring pneumococcus within the household, and then by transmitting acquired serotypes more efficiently than household members of other ages.

Comparative analysis of Streptococcus pneumoniae transmission in Portuguese and Finnish day-care centres

Background

Day-care centre (DCC) attendees play a central role in maintaining the circulation of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in the population. The prevalence of pneumococcal carriage is highest in DCC attendees but varies across countries and is found to be consistently lower in Finland than in Portugal. We compared key parameters underlying pneumococcal transmission in DCCs to understand which of these contributed to the observed differences in carriage prevalence.

Methods

Longitudinal data about serotype-specific carriage in DCC attendees in Portugal (47 children in three rooms; mean age 2 years; range 1–3 years) and Finland (91 children in seven rooms; mean age 4 years; range 1–7 years) were analysed with a continuous-time event history model in a Bayesian framework. The monthly rates of within-room transmission, community acquisition and clearing carriage were estimated.

Results

The posterior mean of within-room transmission rate was 1.05 per month (Portugal) vs. 0.63 per month (Finland). The smaller rate of clearance in Portugal (0.57 vs. 0.73 per month) is in accordance with the children being younger. The overall community rate of acquisition was larger in the Portuguese setting (0.25 vs. 0.11 per month), in agreement with that the groups belonged to a larger DCC. The model adequately predicted the observed levels of carriage prevalence and longitudinal patterns in carriage acquisition and clearance.

Conclusions

The difference in prevalence of carriage (61% in Portuguese vs. 26% among Finnish DCC attendees) was assigned to the longer duration of carriage in younger attendees and a significantly higher rate of within-room transmission and community acquisition in the Portuguese setting.

Pneumococcal transmission and disease in silico: a microsimulation model of the indirect effects of vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.

Dynamics of pneumococcal acquisition and carriage in young adults during training in confined settings in Israel

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks and sporadic cases of pneumococcal illness occur among young adults in confined settings. Our aim was to characterize pneumococcal acquisition and carriage among healthy young adults in Israel during military training in confined settings.

METHODS

During the years 2007-2008, an observational longitudinal study was conducted in three cohorts of healthy soldiers, during a 7-month basic training period. Epidemiological data, oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal cultures were sampled on 5 occasions: before and 3, 6, 12 and 24 weeks after start of training. Samples were processed within 2-18 hours. Relatedness of isolates was investigated by capsular typing of all isolates and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis to determine acquisition and transmission. Carriage and acquisition patterns were analyzed and multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the impact of time on acquisition after mixing, controlling for other covariates.

RESULTS

Pneumococci were recovered on 202 of 1872 visits among 742 individuals, including 40 different serotypes. Mean carriage prevalence increased in all visits following training initiation. Acquisition during training was high, as 36.9% of individuals acquired pneumococci at least once during training, and for almost one fourth of the whole population this occurred during the first 6 weeks. Significant clustering was noted. Sharing drinking glass/bottle was found to be a significant and common risk factor for pneumococcal acquisition.

CONCLUSIONS

Pneumococcal acquisition is highly frequent when young adults live in close contact in confined settings, especially early after mixing.

Characteristics of Streptococcus pneumoniae strains colonizing upper respiratory tract of healthy preschool children in Poland

Antibiotic resistant and invasive pneumococci may spread temporally and locally in day care centers (DCCs). We examined 267 children attending four DCCs located in the same city and 70 children staying at home in three seasons (autumn, winter, and spring) to determine prevalence, serotype distribution, antibiotic resistance patterns, and transmission of pneumococcal strains colonizing upper respiratory tract of healthy children without antipneumococcal vaccination. By pheno- and genotyping, we determined clonality of pneumococci, including drug-resistant strains. The average carriage of pneumococci in three seasons was 38.2%. 73.4% and 80.4% of the isolates belonged to serotypes present in 10- and 13-valent conjugate vaccine, respectively. Among the pneumococcal strains, 33.3% were susceptible to all antimicrobial tested and 39.2% had decreased susceptibility to penicillin. Multidrug resistance was common (35.7%); 97.5% of drug-resistant isolates represented serotypes included to 10- and 13-valent conjugate vaccine. According to BOX-PCR, clonality definitely was observed only in case of serotype 14. Multivariate analysis determined DCC attendance as strongly related to pneumococcal colonization in all three seasons, but important seasonal differences were demonstrated. In children attending DCCs, we observed dynamic turnover of pneumococcal strains, especially penicillin nonsusceptible and multidrug resistant, which were mostly distributed among serotypes included to available pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.

Niche and neutral effects of acquired immunity permit coexistence of pneumococcal serotypes

Over 90 capsular serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a common nasopharyngeal colonizer and major cause of pneumonia, bacteremia, and meningitis, are known. It is unclear why some serotypes can persist at all: They are more easily cleared from carriage and compete poorly in vivo. Serotype-specific immune responses, which could promote diversity in principle, are weak enough to allow repeated colonizations by the same type. We show that weak serotype-specific immunity and an acquired response not specific to the capsule can together reproduce observed diversity. Serotype-specific immunity stabilizes competition, and acquired immunity to noncapsular antigens reduces fitness differences. Our model can be used to explain the effects of pneumococcal vaccination and indicates general factors that regulate the diversity of pathogens.

Nasopharyngeal Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in Japanese children attending day-care centers

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a prospective bacteriological survey to investigate antibiotic resistance-related genetic characteristics and the turnover of nasopharyngeal Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in healthy children in day-care centers (DCCs).

METHODS

A total of 363 nasopharyngeal mucus samples were collected from children aged 0 to 6 years attending two DCCs in the summer of 2004 (n=181) and the following winter (n=182). We obtained 157 S. pneumoniae isolates and analyzed them by antibiotic susceptibility testing, PCR assay for the penicillin-binding protein (PBP) genes and macrolide-resistance gene, and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE).

RESULTS

The overall carriage rate was 43.3% (157/363). The percentages of penicillin-intermediately resistant S. pneumoniae (PISP) strains, penicillin-resistant S. pneumoniae (PRSP) strains, erythromycin-intermediately resistant S. pneumoniae strains and erythromycin-resistant S. pneumoniae strains were 35.7% (56/157), 0.6% (1/157), 1.9% (3/157), and 69.4% (109/157), respectively. The percentages of S. pneumoniae strains with the pbp mutation(s) and mefA and/or ermB gene(s) were 92.4% (145/157) and 71.3% (112/157), respectively. Fifty strains with different PFGE patterns were obtained from among the 157 isolates. Thirteen strains were observed in both seasons, but only one of these strains was isolated from the same carrier. Twenty-one strains (42.0%) were isolated from two or more children, and 17 of these were each isolated from children attending the same DCC.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate the spread of S. pneumoniae, particularly those with antibiotic-resistance genes, and the vigorous genetic turnover and substantial horizontal transmission of this pathogen in healthy children attending DCCs in Japan.

Modelling multi-type transmission of pneumococcal carriage in Bangladeshi families

The burden of pneumococcal carriage is largest in developing countries from which, however, detailed studies on pneumococcal transmission are missing. In this study we followed nasopharyngeal carriage in Bangladeshi infants (n=99) from birth, with 2-week sampling intervals until age 4 months, and monthly thereafter until age 1 year, and also their family members at the same intervals. We assessed the dependence of pneumococcal acquisition rates on age, serotype, serotype-specific exposure (i.e. transmission) and current state of carriage (yes/no). A statistical model of pneumococcal transmission, taking into account incompletely observed data, was applied to estimate rates of acquisition and clearance for a large number of serotypes at the same time. Serotypes that were common in the study population were more often acquired from the community than rarer serotypes. However, when conditioning on serotype-specific exposure within the family, transmission rates were similar between different serotypes. Exposure within families signified more than tenfold increase in the rate of acquisition.

Outbreaks of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in day care cohorts in Finland - implications for elimination of transmission

Background

Day care centre (DCC) attendees play a central role in maintaining the circulation of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in the population. Exposure within families and within DCCs are the main risk factors for colonisation with pneumococcal serotypes in DCC attendees.

Methods

Transmission of serotype specific carriage was analysed with a continuous time event history model, based on longitudinal data from day care attendees and their family members. Rates of acquisition, conditional on exposure, were estimated in a Bayesian framework utilising latent processes of carriage. To ensure a correct level of exposure, non-participating day care attendees and their family members were included in the analysis. Posterior predictive simulations were used to quantify transmission patterns within day care cohorts, to estimate the basic reproduction number for pneumococcal carriage in a population of day care cohorts, and to assess the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage to eliminate pneumococcal transmission.

Results

The model, validated by posterior predictive sampling, was successful in capturing the strong temporal clustering of pneumococcal serotypes in the day care cohorts. In average 2.7 new outbreaks of pneumococcal carriage initiate in a day care cohort each month. While 39% of outbreaks were of size one, the mean outbreak size was 7.6 individuals and the mean length of an outbreak was 2.8 months. The role of families in creating and maintaining transmission was minimal, as only 10% of acquisitions in day care attendees were from family members. Considering a population of day care cohorts, a child-to-child basic reproduction number was estimated as 1.4 and the critical vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage as 0.3.

Conclusion

Pneumococcal transmission occurs in serotype specific outbreaks of carriage, driven by within-day-care transmission and between-serotype competition. An amplifying effect of the day care cohorts enhances the spread of pneumococcal serotypes within the population. The effect of vaccination, in addition to reducing susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage in the vaccinated, induces a herd effect, thus creating a counter-effect to the amplifying effect of the cohort. Consequently, the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage, required for elimination of transmission, is relatively low. Use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines is expected to induce a notable herd protection against pneumococcal disease.