Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 population structure in the era of conjugate vaccines, 2001-2018

Background. Despite use of highly effective conjugate vaccines, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and disproportionately affects Indigenous populations. Although included in the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), which was introduced in 2010, serotype 3 continues to cause disease among Indigenous communities in the Southwest USA. In the Navajo Nation, serotype 3 IPD incidence increased among adults (3.8/100 000 in 2001-2009 and 6.2/100 000 in 2011-2019); in children the disease persisted although the rates dropped from 5.8/100 000 to 2.3/100 000.Methods. We analysed the genomic epidemiology of serotype 3 isolates collected from 129 adults and 63 children with pneumococcal carriage (n=61) or IPD (n=131) from 2001 to 2018 of the Navajo Nation. Using whole-genome sequencing data, we determined clade membership and assessed changes in serotype 3 population structure over time.Results. The serotype 3 population structure was characterized by three dominant subpopulations: clade II (n=90, 46.9 %) and clade Iα (n=59, 30.7 %), which fall into Clonal Complex (CC) 180, and a non-CC180 clade (n=43, 22.4 %). The proportion of clade II-associated IPD cases increased significantly from 2001 to 2010 to 2011-2018 among adults (23.1-71.8 %; P<0.001) but not in children (27.3-33.3 %; P=0.84). Over the same period, the proportion of clade II-associated carriage increased; this was statistically significant among children (23.3-52.6 %; P=0.04) but not adults (0-50.0 %, P=0.08).Conclusions. In this setting with persistent serotype 3 IPD and carriage, clade II has increased since 2010. Genomic changes may be contributing to the observed trends in serotype 3 carriage and disease over time.

Evaluation of indoor PM2.5 concentrations in a Native American Community: a pilot study

BACKGROUND

Indoor air pollution is associated with adverse health effects; however, few studies exist studying indoor air pollution on the Navajo Nation in the southwest U.S., a community with high rates of respiratory disease.

METHODS

Indoor PM_2.5 concentration was evaluated in 26 homes on the Navajo Nation using real-time PM_2.5 monitors. Household risk factors and daily activities were evaluated with three metrics of indoor PM_2.5: time-weighted average (TWA), 90th percentile of concentration, and daily minutes exceeding 100 μg/m³. A questionnaire and recall sheet were used to record baseline household characteristics and daily activities.

RESULTS

The median TWA, 90th percentile, and daily minutes exceeding 100 μg/m³ were 7.9 μg/m³, 14.0 μg/m³_, and 17 min, respectively. TWAs tended to be higher in autumn and in houses that used fuel the previous day. Other characteristics associated with elevated PM exposure in all metrics included overcrowded houses, nonmobile houses, and houses with current smokers, pets, and longer cooking time.

CONCLUSIONS

Some residents of the Navajo Nation have higher risk of exposure to indoor air pollution by Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards. Efforts to identify the causes and associations with adverse health effects are needed to ensure that exposure to risks and possible health impacts are mitigated.

Digitally recorded and remotely classified lung auscultation compared with conventional stethoscope classifications among children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of pneumonia remains challenging. Digitally recorded and remote human classified lung sounds may offer benefits beyond conventional auscultation, but it is unclear whether classifications differ between the two approaches. We evaluated concordance between digital and conventional auscultation.

METHODS

We collected digitally recorded lung sounds, conventional auscultation classifications and clinical measures and samples from children with pneumonia (cases) in low-income and middle-income countries. Physicians remotely classified recordings as crackles, wheeze or uninterpretable. Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was evaluated among 383 pneumonia cases with concurrently (within 2 hours) collected conventional and digital auscultation classifications using prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). Using an expanded set of 737 cases that also incorporated the non-concurrently collected assessments, we evaluated whether associations between auscultation classifications and clinical or aetiological findings differed between conventional or digital auscultation using χ² tests and logistic regression adjusted for age, sex and site.

RESULTS

Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was moderate for classifying crackles and/or wheeze versus neither crackles nor wheeze (PABAK=0.50), and fair for crackles-only versus not crackles-only (PABAK=0.30) and any wheeze versus no wheeze (PABAK=0.27). Crackles were more common on conventional auscultation, whereas wheeze was more frequent on digital auscultation. Compared with neither crackles nor wheeze, crackles-only on both conventional and digital auscultation was associated with abnormal chest radiographs (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.53, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.36; aOR=2.09, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.68, respectively); any wheeze was inversely associated with C-reactive protein >40 mg/L using conventional auscultation (aOR=0.50, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.92) and with very severe pneumonia using digital auscultation (aOR=0.67, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.97). Crackles-only on digital auscultation was associated with mortality compared with any wheeze (aOR=2.70, 95% CI 1.12 to 6.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional auscultation and remotely-classified digital auscultation displayed moderate concordance for presence/absence of wheeze and crackles among cases. Conventional and digital auscultation may provide different classification patterns, but wheeze was associated with decreased clinical severity on both.

Duration of effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease: results of a systematic review and meta-regression

BACKGROUND

Knowing whether COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness wanes is crucial for informing vaccine policy, such as the need for and timing of booster doses. We aimed to systematically review the evidence for the duration of protection of COVID-19 vaccines against various clinical outcomes, and to assess changes in the rates of breakthrough infection caused by the delta variant with increasing time since vaccination.

METHODS

This study was designed as a systematic review and meta-regression. We did a systematic review of preprint and peer-reviewed published article databases from June 17, 2021, to Dec 2, 2021. Randomised controlled trials of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and observational studies of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness were eligible. Studies with vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates at discrete time intervals of people who had received full vaccination and that met predefined screening criteria underwent full-text review. We used random-effects meta-regression to estimate the average change in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness 1-6 months after full vaccination.

FINDINGS

Of 13 744 studies screened, 310 underwent full-text review, and 18 studies were included (all studies were carried out before the omicron variant began to circulate widely). Risk of bias, established using the risk of bias 2 tool for randomised controlled trials or the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions tool was low for three studies, moderate for eight studies, and serious for seven studies. We included 78 vaccine-specific vaccine efficacy or effectiveness evaluations (Pfizer-BioNTech-Comirnaty, n=38; Moderna-mRNA-1273, n=23; Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S, n=9; and AstraZeneca-Vaxzevria, n=8). On average, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 1 month to 6 months after full vaccination by 21·0 percentage points (95% CI 13·9-29·8) among people of all ages and 20·7 percentage points (10·2-36·6) among older people (as defined by each study, who were at least 50 years old). For symptomatic COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 24·9 percentage points (95% CI 13·4-41·6) in people of all ages and 32·0 percentage points (11·0-69·0) in older people. For severe COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 10·0 percentage points (95% CI 6·1-15·4) in people of all ages and 9·5 percentage points (5·7-14·6) in older people. Most (81%) vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates against severe disease remained greater than 70% over time.

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against severe disease remained high, although it did decrease somewhat by 6 months after full vaccination. By contrast, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against infection and symptomatic disease decreased approximately 20-30 percentage points by 6 months. The decrease in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness is likely caused by, at least in part, waning immunity, although an effect of bias cannot be ruled out. Evaluating vaccine efficacy or effectiveness beyond 6 months will be crucial for updating COVID-19 vaccine policy.

FUNDING

Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on routine immunisation services: evidence of disruption and recovery from 170 countries and territories

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revealed the vulnerability of immunisation systems worldwide, although the scale of these disruptions has not been described at a global level. This study aims to assess the impact of COVID-19 on routine immunisation using triangulated data from global, country-based, and individual-reported sources obtained during the pandemic period.

Methods

This report synthesised data from 170 countries and territories. Data sources included administered vaccine-dose data from January to December, 2019, and January to December, 2020, WHO regional office reports, and a WHO-led pulse survey administered in April, 2020, and June, 2020. Results were expressed as frequencies and proportions of respondents or reporting countries. Data on vaccine doses administered were weighted by the population of surviving infants per country.

Findings

A decline in the number of administered doses of diphtheria–pertussis–tetanus-containing vaccine (DTP3) and first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in the first half of 2020 was noted. The lowest number of vaccine doses administered was observed in April, 2020, when 33% fewer DTP3 doses were administered globally, ranging from 9% in the WHO African region to 57% in the South-East Asia region. Recovery of vaccinations began by June, 2020, and continued into late 2020. WHO regional offices reported substantial disruption to routine vaccination sessions in April, 2020, related to interrupted vaccination demand and supply, including reduced availability of the health workforce. Pulse survey analysis revealed that 45 (69%) of 65 countries showed disruption in outreach services compared with 27 (44%) of 62 countries with disrupted fixed-post immunisation services.

Interpretation

The marked magnitude and global scale of immunisation disruption evokes the dangers of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks in the future. Trends indicating partial resumption of services highlight the urgent need for ongoing assessment of recovery, catch-up vaccination strategy implementation for vulnerable populations, and ensuring vaccine coverage equity and health system resilience.

Funding

US Agency for International Development.

Persistence of Immunity Following 2-Dose Priming with a 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine at 6 and 10 Weeks or 6 and 14 Weeks of Age in Nepalese Toddlers

BACKGROUND

The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has had a substantial impact on invasive pneumococcal disease. Previously, we compared immunity following vaccination with the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) administered at 2 slightly different schedules: at 6 and 10 weeks of age, and at 6 and 14 weeks of age, both followed by a 9-month booster. In this study, we followed up those participants to evaluate the medium-term persistence of serotype-specific pneumococcal immunity at 2-3 years of age.

METHOD

Children from the previous studies were contacted and after taking informed consent from their parents, blood samples and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected. Serotype-specific IgG antibody concentrations were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, for the 10 vaccine serotypes, at a WHO pneumococcal serology reference laboratory.

FINDINGS

Two hundred twenty of the 287 children who completed the primary study returned at 2-3 years of age to provide a blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab. The nasopharyngeal carriage rate of PCV10 serotypes in the 6 + 14 group was higher than the 6 + 10 group (13.4% vs. 1.9%). Nevertheless, the proportion of toddlers with serum pneumococcal serotype-specific IgG greater than or equal to 0.35 µg/mL was comparable for all PCV10 serotypes between the 6 + 10 week and 6 + 14 week groups. Similarly, the geometric mean concentrations of serum pneumococcal serotype-specific IgG levels were similar in the 2 groups for all serotypes, except for serotype 19F which was 32% lower in the 6 + 10 group than the 6 + 14 group.

CONCLUSION

Immunization with PCV10 at 6 + 10 weeks or 6 + 14 weeks, with a booster at 9 months in each case, results in similar persistence of serotype-specific antibody at 2-3 years of age. Thus, protection from pneumococcal disease is expected to be similar when either schedule is used.

The World of Immunization: Achievements, Challenges, and Strategic Vision for the Next Decade

Immunization is among the most cost-effective public health interventions available and is estimated to have averted at least 37 million deaths between 2000 and 2019. Since the establishment of the Expanded Programme on Immunization in 1974, global vaccination coverage increased and the coverage gap between rich and poor countries decreased. Creation of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, in 2000 allowed the poorest countries in the world to benefit from new, life-saving vaccines and expand the breadth of protection against an increasing number of vaccine-preventable diseases. Despite this progress, inequities in access to and uptake of vaccines persist. Opportunities to realize the full potential of vaccines are within reach but require focused, tailored and committed action by Governments and immunization stakeholders. The Immunization Agenda 2030 provides a framework for action during the next decade to attain a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age fully benefits from vaccines for good health and well-being.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human parainfluenza virus in children younger than 5 years for 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) is a common virus in childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). However, no estimates have been made to quantify the global burden of hPIV in childhood ALRI. We aimed to estimate the global and regional hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality for children younger than 5 years and stratified by 0-5 months, 6-11 months, and 12-59 months of age.

METHODS

We did a systematic review of hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2020, found in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Global Health Library, three Chinese databases, and Google search, and also identified a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies through an international research network. We included studies reporting community incidence of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; hospital admission rates of ALRI or ALRI with hypoxaemia in children with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; proportions of patients with ALRI admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; or in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV. We used a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess risk of bias. We analysed incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs of hPIV-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. Adjustment was made to account for the non-detection of hPIV-4. We estimated hPIV-associated ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths using adjusted incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs. We estimated the overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality (both in-hospital and out-hospital mortality) on the basis of the number of in-hospital deaths and care-seeking for child pneumonia. We estimated hPIV-attributable ALRI burden by accounting for attributable fractions for hPIV in laboratory-confirmed hPIV cases and deaths. Sensitivity analyses were done to validate the estimates of overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality and hPIV-attributable ALRI mortality. The systematic review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019148570).

FINDINGS

203 studies were identified, including 162 hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies and a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies. Globally in 2018, an estimated 18·8 million (uncertainty range 12·8-28·9) ALRI cases, 725 000 (433 000-1 260 000) ALRI hospital admissions, and 34 400 (16 400-73 800) ALRI deaths were attributable to hPIVs among children younger than 5 years. The age-stratified and region-stratified analyses suggested that about 61% (35% for infants aged 0-5 months and 26% for 6-11 months) of the hospital admissions and 66% (42% for infants aged 0-5 months and 24% for 6-11 months) of the in-hospital deaths were in infants, and 70% of the in-hospital deaths were in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between 73% and 100% (varying by outcome) of the data had a low risk in study design; the proportion was 46-65% for the adjustment for health-care use, 59-77% for patient groups excluded, 54-93% for case definition, 42-93% for sampling strategy, and 67-77% for test methods. Heterogeneity in estimates was found between studies for each outcome.

INTERPRETATION

We report the first global burden estimates of hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI in young children. Globally, approximately 13% of ALRI cases, 4-14% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of childhood ALRI mortality were attributable to hPIV. These numbers indicate a potentially notable burden of hPIV in ALRI morbidity and mortality in young children. These estimates should encourage and inform investment to accelerate the development of targeted interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of mobile phone delivered reminders and unconditional incentives on measles-containing vaccine timeliness and coverage: a randomised controlled trial in western Kenya

Introduction

Short message service (SMS) reminders coupled with a small monetary incentive conditioned on prompt vaccination have been shown to improve first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) uptake. We assessed whether SMS reminders and unconditional monetary incentives—more amenable to programmatic implementation—can improve MCV1 uptake in Kenya.

Methods

Caregivers of eligible infants aged 6–8 months were enrolled into an individually randomised controlled trial and assigned to receive either: no intervention (control), two SMS reminders (SMS) sent 3 days, and 1 day before the scheduled MCV1 date, or SMS reminders coupled with a Kenya Shilling (KES) 150 incentive (SMS +150 KES) sent 3 days before the scheduled MCV1 date. Study staff conducted a household follow-up visit at age 12 months to ascertain vaccination status. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate the relative and absolute difference in MCV1 timely coverage (by age 10 months), the primary outcome.

Results

Between 6 December 2016 and 31 March 2017, 179 infants were enrolled into each of the three study arms. Follow-up visits were completed between 19 April 2017 and 8 October 2017 for control (n=170), SMS (n=157) and SMS + 150 KES (n=158) children. MCV1 timely coverage was 68% among control arm infants compared with 78% in each intervention arm. This represented a non-statistically significant increase in the SMS arm (adjusted relative risk 1.13; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.30; p=0.070; adjusted risk difference 9.2%; 95% CI: −0.6 to 19.0%; p=0.066), but a statistically significant increase in the SMS + 150 KES arm (1.16; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.32; p=0.035; 10.6%; 95% CI 0.8 to 20.3%; p=0.034).

Conclusion

These findings suggest that the effect of SMS reminders coupled with a small unconditional monetary incentive on MCV1 uptake is comparable to that of SMS reminders alone, limiting their utility. Further studies in the absence of unexpected supply-side constraints are needed.

Trial registration number

NCT02904642

Feasibility assessment of measles and rubella eradication

This report addresses the epidemiological aspects and feasibility of measles and rubella eradication and the potential resource requirements in response to the request of the Director-General at the Seventieth World Health Assembly held on May 31, 2017. A guiding principle is that the path toward measles and rubella eradication should serve to strengthen primary health care, promote universal health coverage, and be a pathfinder for new vision and strategy for immunization over the next decade as laid out in the Immunization Agenda 2030. Specifically, this report: 1) highlights the importance of measles and rubella as global health priorities; 2) reviews the current global measles and rubella situation; 3) summarizes prior assessments of the feasibility of measles and rubella eradication; 4) assesses the progress and challenges in achieving regional measles and rubella elimination; 5) assesses additional considerations for measles and rubella eradication, including the results of modelling and economic analyses; 6) assesses the implications of establishing a measles and rubella eradication goal and the process for setting an eradication target date; 7) proposes a framework for determining preconditions for setting a target date for measles and rubella eradication and how these preconditions should be understood and used; and 8) concludes with recommendations endorsed by SAGE.

The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries

Background

In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1−59 months.

Methods

Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)−negative children aged 1–59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011−2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic.

Results

Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs).

Conclusions

The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years.

METHODS

We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths.

FINDINGS

In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Digital auscultation in PERCH: Associations with chest radiography and pneumonia mortality in children

BACKGROUND

Whether digitally recorded lung sounds are associated with radiographic pneumonia or clinical outcomes among children in low-income and middle-income countries is unknown. We sought to address these knowledge gaps.

METHODS

We enrolled 1 to 59monthold children hospitalized with pneumonia at eight African and Asian Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health sites in six countries, recorded digital stethoscope lung sounds, obtained chest radiographs, and collected clinical outcomes. Recordings were processed and classified into binary categories positive or negative for adventitial lung sounds. Listening and reading panels classified recordings and radiographs. Recording classification associations with chest radiographs with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia) or mortality were evaluated. We also examined case fatality among risk strata.

RESULTS

Among children without WHO danger signs, wheezing (without crackles) had a lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for radiographic pneumonia (0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.82), compared to children with normal recordings. Neither crackle only (no wheeze) (aOR: 2.13, 95% CI: 0.91, 4.96) or any wheeze (with or without crackle) (aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.34, 1.15) were associated with radiographic pneumonia. Among children with WHO danger signs no lung recording classification was independently associated with radiographic pneumonia, although trends toward greater odds of radiographic pneumonia were observed among children classified with crackle only (no wheeze) or any wheeze (with or without crackle). Among children without WHO danger signs, those with recorded wheezing had a lower case fatality than those without wheezing (3.8% vs. 9.1%, p = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

Among lower risk children without WHO danger signs digitally recorded wheezing is associated with a lower odds for radiographic pneumonia and with lower mortality. Although further research is needed, these data indicate that with further development digital auscultation may eventually contribute to child pneumonia care.

The Path to Group A Streptococcus Vaccines: World Health Organization Research and Development Technology Roadmap and Preferred Product Characteristics

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) infections result in a considerable underappreciated burden of acute and chronic disease globally. A 2018 World Health Assembly resolution calls for better control and prevention. Providing guidance on global health research needs is an important World Health Organization (WHO) activity, influencing prioritization of investments. Here, the role, status, and directions in GAS vaccines research are discussed. WHO preferred product characteristics and a research and development technology roadmap, briefly presented, offer an actionable framework for vaccine development to regulatory and policy decision making, availability, and use. GAS vaccines should be considered for global prevention of the range of clinical manifestations and associated antibiotic use. Impediments related to antigen diversity, safety concerns, and the difficulty to establish vaccine efficacy against rheumatic heart disease are discussed. Demonstration of vaccine efficacy against pharyngitis and skin infections constitutes a key near-term strategic goal. Investments and collaborative partnerships to diversify and advance vaccine candidates are needed.

National, regional, and state-level pneumonia and severe pneumonia morbidity in children in India: modelled estimates for 2000 and 2015

BACKGROUND

The absolute number of pneumonia deaths in India has declined substantially since 2000. However, pneumonia remains a major cause of morbidity in children in the country. We used a risk factor-based model to estimate pneumonia and severe pneumonia morbidity in Indian states in 2000 and 2015.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we estimated the burden of pneumonia and severe pneumonia in children younger than 5 years using a risk factor-based model. We did a systematic literature review to identify published data on the incidence of pneumonia from community-based longitudinal studies and calculated summary estimates. We estimated state-specific incidence rates for WHO-defined clinical pneumonia between 2000 and 2015 using Poisson regression and the prevalence of risk factors in each state was obtained from National Family Health Surveys. From clinical pneumonia studies, we identified studies reporting the proportion of clinical pneumonia cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases. We used the estimate of the proportion of cases with lower chest wall indrawing to estimate WHO-defined severe pneumonia cases for each state.

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in Indian HIV-uninfected children younger than 5 years decreased from 83·8 million cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 14·0-300·8) to 49·8 million cases (9·1-174·2), representing a 41% reduction in pneumonia cases. The incidence of pneumonia in children younger than 5 years in India was 657 cases per 1000 children (95% UI 110-2357) in 2000 and 403 cases per 1000 children (74-1408) in 2015. The estimated national pneumonia case fatality rate in 2015 was 0·38% (95% UI 0·11-2·10). In 2015, the estimated number of severe pneumonia cases was 8·4 million (95% UI 1·2-31·7), with an incidence of 68 cases per 1000 children (9-257) and a case fatality ratio of 2·26% (0·60-16·30). In 2015, the estimated number of pneumonia cases in HIV-uninfected children was highest in Uttar Pradesh (12·4 million [95% UI 2·1-45·0]), Bihar (7·3 million [1·3-26·1]), and Madhya Pradesh (4·6 million [0·7-17·0]). Between 2000 and 2015, the greatest reduction in pneumonia cases was observed in Kerala (82% reduction). In 2015, pneumonia incidence was greater than 500 cases per 1000 children in two states: Uttar Pradesh (565 cases per 1000 children [95% UI 94-2047]) and Madhya Pradesh (563 cases per 1000 children [88-2084]).

INTERPRETATION

The estimated number of pneumonia and severe pneumonia cases among children younger than 5 years in India decreased between 2000 and 2015. Improvements in socioeconomic indicators and specific government initiatives are likely to have contributed to declines in the prevalence of pneumonia risk factors in many states. However, pneumonia incidence in many states remains high. The introduction of new vaccines that target pneumonia pathogens and reduce risk factors will help further reduce the burden of pneumonia in the country.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global vaccine action plan lessons learned I: Recommendations for the next decade

The Global Vaccine Action Plan 2011-2020 (GVAP) was developed to realize the ambitions of the Decade of Vaccines - that all individuals and communities enjoy lives free from vaccine-preventable diseases. It included a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation/accountability framework to assess progress towards global targets with recommendations for corrective actions. While many of the GVAP targets are very unlikely to be met by the end of 2020, substantial progress has nevertheless been made, establishing a strong foundation for a successor global immunization strategy, the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). The Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on immunization has made a series of recommendations to ensure that the lessons learned from GVAP inform the development and implementation of IA2030.

Upper airways colonisation of Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults aged 60 years and older: A systematic review of prevalence and individual participant data meta-analysis of risk factors

•

Systematic review and meta-analysis of 18 studies and more than 6000 participants.

•

Adults over the age of 60 had a pooled prevalence of pneumococcal carriage of 9%.

•

Risk factors: contact with children, smoking and residing in a nursing home.

Background

Colonisation with Streptococcus pneumoniae can lead to invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. Pneumococcal acquisition and prevalence of colonisation are high in children. In older adults, a population susceptible to pneumococcal disease, colonisation prevalence is reported to be lower, but studies are heterogeneous.

Methods

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence of, and risk factors for, pneumococcal colonisation in adults ≥ 60 years of age (PROSPERO #42016036891). We identified peer-reviewed studies reporting the prevalence of S. pneumoniae colonisation using MEDLINE and EMBASE (until April 2016), excluding studies of acute disease. Participant-level data on risk factors were sought from each study.

Findings

Of 2202 studies screened, 29 were analysable: 18 provided participant-level data (representing 6290 participants). Prevalence of detected pneumococcal colonisation was 0–39% by conventional culture methods and 3–23% by molecular methods. In a multivariate analysis, colonisation was higher in persons from nursing facilities compared with the community (odds ratio (OR) 2•30, 95% CI 1•26–4•21 and OR 7•72, 95% CI 1•15–51•85, respectively), in those who were currently smoking (OR 1•69, 95% CI 1•12–2•53) or those who had regular contact with children (OR 1•93, 95%CI 1•27–2•93). Persons living in urban areas had significantly lower carriage prevalence (OR 0•43, 95%CI 0•27–0•70).

Interpretation

Overall prevalence of pneumococcal colonisation in older adults was higher than expected but varied by risk factors. Future studies should further explore risk factors for colonisation, to highlight targets for focussed intervention such as pneumococcal vaccination of high-risk groups.

Funding

No funding was required.

National, regional, and state-level burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children in India: modelled estimates for 2000-15

Background

India accounts for a disproportionate burden of global childhood illnesses. To inform policies and measure progress towards achieving child health targets, we estimated the annual national and state-specific childhood mortality and morbidity attributable to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) between 2000 and 2015.

Methods

In this modelling study, we used vaccine clinical trial data to estimate the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus and Hib. The proportion of meningitis deaths attributable to each pathogen was derived from pathogen-specific meningitis case fatality and bacterial meningitis case data from surveillance studies. We applied these proportions to modelled state-specific pneumonia and meningitis deaths from 2000 to 2015 prepared by the WHO Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation collaboration (WHO/MCEE) on the basis of verbal autopsy studies from India. The burden of clinical and severe pneumonia cases attributable to pneumococcus and Hib was ascertained with vaccine clinical trial data and state-specific all-cause pneumonia case estimates prepared by WHO/MCEE by use of risk factor prevalence data from India. Pathogen-specific meningitis cases were derived from state-level modelled pathogen-specific meningitis deaths and state-level meningitis case fatality estimates. Pneumococcal and Hib morbidity due to non-pneumonia, non-meningitis (NPNM) invasive syndromes were derived by applying the ratio of pathogen-specific NPNM cases to pathogen-specific meningitis cases to the state-level pathogen-specific meningitis cases. Mortality due to pathogen-specific NPNM was calculated with the ratio of pneumococcal and Hib meningitis case fatality to pneumococcal and Hib meningitis NPNM case fatality. Census data from India provided the population at risk.

Findings

Between 2000 and 2015, estimates of pneumococcal deaths in Indian children aged 1–59 months fell from 166 000 (uncertainty range [UR] 110 000–198 000) to 68 700 (44 600–86 000), while Hib deaths fell from 82 600 (52 300–112 000) to 15 600 (9800–21 500), representing a 58% (UR 22–78) decline in pneumococcal deaths and an 81% (59–91) decline in Hib deaths. In 2015, national mortality rates in children aged 1–59 months were 56 (UR 37–71) per 100 000 for pneumococcal infection and 13 (UR 8–18) per 100 000 for Hib. Uttar Pradesh (18 900 [UR 12 300–23 600]) and Bihar (8600 [5600–10 700]) had the highest numbers of pneumococcal deaths in 2015. Uttar Pradesh (9300 [UR 5900–12 700]) and Odisha (1100 [700–1500]) had the highest numbers of Hib deaths in 2015. Less conservative assumptions related to the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus indicate that as many as 118 000 (UR 69 000–140 000) total pneumococcal deaths could have occurred in 2015 in India.

Interpretation

Pneumococcal and Hib mortality have declined in children aged 1–59 months in India since 2000, even before nationwide implementation of conjugate vaccines. Introduction of the Hib vaccine in several states corresponded with a more rapid reduction in morbidity and mortality associated with Hib infection. Rapid scale-up and widespread use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and sustained use of the Hib vaccine could help accelerate achievement of child survival targets in India.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Upper respiratory tract colonization with Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults

INTRODUCTION

Most of the current evidence regarding pneumococcal upper respiratory colonization in adults suggests that despite high disease burden, carriage prevalence is low. Contemporary studies on adult pneumococcal colonization have largely followed the pediatric approach by which samples are obtained mostly from the nasopharynx and bacterial detection is evaluated by routine culture alone. Recent evidence suggests that the 'pediatric approach' may be insufficient in adults and pneumococcal detection in this population may be improved by longitudinal studies that include samples from additional respiratory sites combined with more extensive laboratory testing.

AREAS COVERED

In this article, relevant literature published in peer review journals on adult pneumococcal colonization, epidemiology, detection methods, and recommendations were reviewed.

EXPERT OPINION

Respiratory carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae has been underestimated in adults. Contemporary pneumococcal carriage studies in adults that collect samples from alternative respiratory sites such as the oropharynx, saliva, or nasal wash; are culture-enriched for pneumococcus; and use molecular diagnostic methods designed to target two pneumococcal DNA sequences should enhance pneumococcal detection in the adult respiratory tract. This finding may have implications for the interpretation of dynamics of pneumococcal transmission and vaccination.

Global burden of respiratory infections associated with seasonal influenza in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018.

METHODS

We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FINDINGS

In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1-190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8-15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

High Burden of Staphylococcus aureus Among Native American Individuals on the White Mountain Apache Tribal Lands

BACKGROUND

This study was done to determine the burden of invasive Staphylococcus aureus on the White Mountain Apache Tribal lands.

METHODS

Active population and laboratory-based surveillance for invasive S aureus infections was conducted from May 2016 to April 2018. A case was defined as a Native American individual living on or around the White Mountain Apache Tribal lands with S aureus isolated from a normally sterile body site.

RESULTS

Fifty-three cases were identified. Most cases were adults (90.6%) and had ≥1 underlying medical condition (86.8%), the most common of which were diabetes (49.1%) and obesity (41.5%). A total of 26.4% cases were categorized as community acquired. Most infections were methicillin-resistant (75.5%). A total of 7.5% of cases required amputation, and 7.7% of cases died within 30 days of initial culture. The incidence of invasive S aureus was 156.3 per 100 000 persons. The age-adjusted incidence of invasive methicillin-resistant S aureus was 138.2 per 100 000 persons.

CONCLUSIONS

This community has a disproportionately high burden of invasive methicillin-resistant S aureus compared with the general US population. Interventions are urgently needed to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with these infections.

Comparison of three rapid household survey sampling methods for vaccination coverage assessment in a peri-urban setting in Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Household surveys are an essential tool for vaccine coverage monitoring in developing countries, and the World Health Organization (WHO) Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) cluster survey design has been a default choice for decades. In response to methodological limitations of the traditional EPI sampling, alternative methods have been proposed, based on modern statistical and geographical techniques. This study compared the coverage estimates and the time efficiency of the EPI sampling design and two alternative methods: the compact segment sampling and innovative grid-based geographical information system (GIS) sampling.

METHODS

We conducted a series of equal-sized concurrent prospective vaccine coverage surveys in Karachi, Pakistan, from January to December 2016, using traditional EPI, compact segment and grid-based GIS sampling methods.

RESULTS

No differences in vaccine coverage estimates were identified across sampling methods in the peri-urban setting; however, due to stronger clustering effects and correct incorporation of sampling weights, the compact segment [design effect (DEFF) = 2.03] and the grid-based GIS surveys (DEFF = 1.72) had higher design effects and, therefore, appeared to have lower statistical precision than the traditional EPI surveys (DEFF = 1.57). To achieve the same level of apparent precision, data collection activities in the compact segment surveys would require more than twice the implementation time needed compared with the traditional EPI surveys.

CONCLUSIONS

The precision of the EPI surveys appeared higher than that of the alternative methods because, under a questionable self-weighting assumption, the estimated design effect did not account for variable sampling weights. The compact segment and grid-based GIS methods were designed to improve randomness and representativeness of sampling households. Although these alternative methods did not result in coverage estimates that differed from the EPI survey results in the peri-urban setting, they have a lower risk of selection bias and therefore may be preferred.

Assessment of an Antibody-in-Lymphocyte Supernatant Assay for the Etiological Diagnosis of Pneumococcal Pneumonia in Children

New diagnostic tests for the etiology of childhood pneumonia are needed. We evaluated the antibody-in-lymphocyte supernatant (ALS) assay to detect immunoglobulin (Ig) G secretion from ex vivo peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) culture, as a potential diagnostic test for pneumococcal pneumonia. We enrolled 348 children with pneumonia admitted to Patan Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal between December 2015 and September 2016. PBMCs sampled from participants were incubated for 48 h before harvesting of cell culture supernatant (ALS). We used a fluorescence-based multiplexed immunoassay to measure the concentration of IgG in ALS against five conserved pneumococcal protein antigens. Of children with pneumonia, 68 had a confirmed etiological diagnosis: 12 children had pneumococcal pneumonia (defined as blood or pleural fluid culture-confirmed; or plasma CRP concentration ≥60 mg/l and nasopharyngeal carriage of serotype 1 pneumococci), and 56 children had non-pneumococcal pneumonia. Children with non-pneumococcal pneumonia had either a bacterial pathogen isolated from blood (six children); or C-reactive protein <60 mg/l, absence of radiographic consolidation and detection of a pathogenic virus by multiplex PCR (respiratory syncytial virus, influenza viruses, or parainfluenza viruses; 23 children). Concentrations of ALS IgG to all five pneumococcal proteins were significantly higher in children with pneumococcal pneumonia than in children with non-pneumococcal pneumonia. The concentration of IgG in ALS to the best-performing antigen discriminated between children with pneumococcal and non-pneumococcal pneumonia with a sensitivity of 1.0 (95% CI 0.73-1.0), specificity of 0.66 (95% CI 0.52-0.78) and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) 0.85 (95% CI 0.75-0.94). Children with pneumococcal pneumonia were older than children with non-pneumococcal pneumonia (median 5.6 and 2.0 years, respectively, p < 0.001). When the analysis was limited to children ≥2 years of age, assay of IgG ALS to pneumococcal proteins was unable to discriminate between children with pneumococcal pneumonia and non-pneumococcal pneumonia (AUROCC 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.88). This method detected spontaneous secretion of IgG to pneumococcal protein antigens from cultured PBMCs. However, when stratified by age group, assay of IgG in ALS to pneumococcal proteins showed limited utility as a test to discriminate between pneumococcal and non-pneumococcal pneumonia in children.

Immunization: vital progress, unfinished agenda

Vaccination against infectious diseases has changed the future of the human species, saving millions of lives every year, both children and adults, and providing major benefits to society as a whole. Here we show, however, that national and sub-national coverage of vaccination varies greatly and major unmet needs persist. Although scientific progress opens exciting perspectives in terms of new vaccines, the pathway from discovery to sustainable implementation can be long and difficult, from the financing, development and licensing to programme implementation and public acceptance. Immunization is one of the best investments in health and should remain a priority for research, industry, public health and society.

Efficacy, safety and immunogenicity of a pneumococcal protein-based vaccine co-administered with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against acute otitis media in young children: A phase IIb randomized study

BACKGROUND

Native American populations experience a substantial burden of pneumococcal disease despite use of highly effective pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). Protein-based pneumococcal vaccines may extend protection beyond the serotype-specific protection elicited by PCVs.

METHODS

In this phase IIb, double-blind, controlled trial, 6-12 weeks-old Native American infants randomized 1:1, received either a protein-based pneumococcal vaccine (dPly/PhtD) containing pneumolysin toxoid (dPly, 10 µg) and pneumococcal histidine triad protein D (PhtD, 10 µg) or placebo, administered along with 13-valent PCV (PCV13) at ages 2, 4, 6 and 12-15 months. Other pediatric vaccines were given per the routine immunization schedule. We assessed vaccine efficacy (VE) against acute otitis media (AOM) and acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI) endpoints. Immunogenicity, reactogenicity and unsolicited adverse events were assessed in a sub-cohort and serious adverse events were assessed in all children.

RESULTS

1803 infants were randomized (900 dPly/PhtD; 903 Control). VE against all episodes of American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP)-defined AOM was 3.8% (95% confidence interval: -11.4, 16.9). Point estimates of VE against other AOM outcomes ranged between 2.9% (-9.5, 14.0) and 5.2% (-8.0, 16.8). Point estimates of VE against ALRI outcomes ranged between -4.4% (-39.2, 21.8) and 2.0% (-18.3, 18.8). Point estimates of VE tended to be higher against first than all episodes but the confidence intervals included zero. dPly/PhtD vaccine was immunogenic and had an acceptable reactogenicity and safety profile after primary and booster vaccination in Native American infants.

CONCLUSIONS

The dPly/PhtD vaccine was immunogenic and well tolerated, however, incremental efficacy in preventing AAP-AOM over PCV13 was not demonstrated.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01545375 (www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Using Serosurvey Data Triangulation for More Accurate Estimates of Vaccine Coverage: Measured and Modeled Coverage From Pakistan Household Surveys

Household surveys remain an essential method for estimating vaccine coverage in developing countries. However, the resulting estimates have inevitable and currently unmeasurable information biases due to inaccuracies in recall, low retention of home-based records (HBRs; i.e., vaccination cards), and inaccurate recording of vaccination on HBRs. We developed an innovative method with which to overcome these biases, enhance the validity of survey results, and estimate true vaccine coverage using nested serological assessments of immune markers. We enrolled children aged 12-23 months in vaccine coverage surveys in Karachi, Pakistan, from January to December 2016. Vaccination history was collected through verbal recall by the caregiver and, when available, by HBR. One-third of survey participants were randomly enrolled for serological testing for anti-measles virus immunoglobulin G antibody. We applied Bayesian latent class models to evaluate the misalignment among measles vaccination histories derived by recall, HBRs, and measles serology and estimated true measles vaccine coverage. The model-based estimate of true measles vaccine coverage was 61.1% (95% credible interval: 53.5, 69.4) among all survey participants. The standard estimate of 73.2% (95% confidence interval: 71.3, 75.1) defined by positive recall or HBR documentation substantially overestimated the vaccine coverage. Researchers can correct for information biases using serological assessments in a subsample of survey participants and latent class analytical approaches.

Causes of severe pneumonia requiring hospital admission in children without HIV infection from Africa and Asia: the PERCH multi-country case-control study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is the leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years. In this study, we estimated causes of pneumonia in young African and Asian children, using novel analytical methods applied to clinical and microbiological findings.

METHODS

We did a multi-site, international case-control study in nine study sites in seven countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. All sites enrolled in the study for 24 months. Cases were children aged 1-59 months admitted to hospital with severe pneumonia. Controls were age-group-matched children randomly selected from communities surrounding study sites. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP-OP), urine, blood, induced sputum, lung aspirate, pleural fluid, and gastric aspirates were tested with cultures, multiplex PCR, or both. Primary analyses were restricted to cases without HIV infection and with abnormal chest x-rays and to controls without HIV infection. We applied a Bayesian, partial latent class analysis to estimate probabilities of aetiological agents at the individual and population level, incorporating case and control data.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 15, 2011, and Jan 30, 2014, we enrolled 4232 cases and 5119 community controls. The primary analysis group was comprised of 1769 (41·8% of 4232) cases without HIV infection and with positive chest x-rays and 5102 (99·7% of 5119) community controls without HIV infection. Wheezing was present in 555 (31·7%) of 1752 cases (range by site 10·6-97·3%). 30-day case-fatality ratio was 6·4% (114 of 1769 cases). Blood cultures were positive in 56 (3·2%) of 1749 cases, and Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common bacteria isolated (19 [33·9%] of 56). Almost all cases (98·9%) and controls (98·0%) had at least one pathogen detected by PCR in the NP-OP specimen. The detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, influenza virus, S pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), H influenzae non-type b, and Pneumocystis jirovecii in NP-OP specimens was associated with case status. The aetiology analysis estimated that viruses accounted for 61·4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 57·3-65·6) of causes, whereas bacteria accounted for 27·3% (23·3-31·6) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis for 5·9% (3·9-8·3). Viruses were less common (54·5%, 95% CrI 47·4-61·5 vs 68·0%, 62·7-72·7) and bacteria more common (33·7%, 27·2-40·8 vs 22·8%, 18·3-27·6) in very severe pneumonia cases than in severe cases. RSV had the greatest aetiological fraction (31·1%, 95% CrI 28·4-34·2) of all pathogens. Human rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus A or B, human parainfluenza virus, S pneumoniae, M tuberculosis, and H influenzae each accounted for 5% or more of the aetiological distribution. We observed differences in aetiological fraction by age for Bordetella pertussis, parainfluenza types 1 and 3, parechovirus-enterovirus, P jirovecii, RSV, rhinovirus, Staphylococcus aureus, and S pneumoniae, and differences by severity for RSV, S aureus, S pneumoniae, and parainfluenza type 3. The leading ten pathogens of each site accounted for 79% or more of the site's aetiological fraction.

INTERPRETATION

In our study, a small set of pathogens accounted for most cases of pneumonia requiring hospital admission. Preventing and treating a subset of pathogens could substantially affect childhood pneumonia outcomes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tuberculosis vaccines: Rising opportunities

Johan Vekemans, Katherine O'Brien, and Jeremy Farrar discuss recent breakthroughs in the search for a highly effective tuberculosis vaccine.

Water quality, availability, and acute gastroenteritis on the Navajo Nation - a pilot case-control study

The Navajo Nation includes approximately 250,000 American Indians living in a remote high desert environment with limited access to public water systems. We conducted a pilot case-control study to assess associations between acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and water availability, use patterns, and quality. Case patients with AGE and non-AGE controls who presented for care to two Indian Health Service hospitals were recruited. Data on demographics and water use practices were collected using a standard questionnaire. Household drinking water was tested for presence of pathogens, coliforms, and residual chlorine. Sixty-one subjects (32 cases and 29 controls) participated in the study. Cases and controls were not significantly different with respect to water sources, quality, or patterns of use. Twenty-one percent (n = 12) of study participants resided in dwellings not connected to a community water system. Eleven percent (n = 7) of subjects reported drinking hauled water from unregulated sources. Coliform bacteria were present in 44% (n = 27) of household water samples, and 68% (n = 40) of samples contained residual chlorine concentrations of <0.2 mg/L. This study highlights issues with water availability, quality, and use patterns within the Navajo Nation, including sub-optimal access to community water systems, and use of water hauled from unregulated sources.

The unattainable criteria for new infant vaccines

BACKGROUND

In 2013, the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) opted against adding meningococcal vaccines to the infant schedule due to poor cost-effectiveness. This raises a policy question: if meningococcal disease is too rare to justify routine vaccination, are there other vaccine-preventable causes of US infant deaths that could be supported?

METHODS

We tabulated US infant deaths from 2009-2013 using the CDC WONDER database. These causes of death were then categorized into one of 3 categories: 1) vaccine-preventable using currently available interventions; 2) potentially vaccine-preventable within the next 10 years; and 3) not preventable.

RESULTS

From 19.8 million births (3.9 million/year), ∼122,000 infants died (0.62%). Of these, 181 (0.15% of all deaths) were preventable using currently available vaccines, while an additional 779 were categorized as potentially preventable in the next 10 y. By exclusion, 121,040 (99.2%) were judged 'not vaccine-preventable'. Meningococcal deaths contributed at most 0.03% of all infant deaths, but accounted for 17-34% of current vaccine-preventable deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The low number of vaccine-preventable deaths in the US makes it increasingly difficult to justify the introduction of any new infant vaccines.

Standardization of Clinical Assessment and Sample Collection Across All PERCH Study Sites

Background.

Variable adherence to standardized case definitions, clinical procedures, specimen collection techniques, and laboratory methods has complicated the interpretation of previous multicenter pneumonia etiology studies. To circumvent these problems, a program of clinical standardization was embedded in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study.

Methods.

Between March 2011 and August 2013, standardized training on the PERCH case definition, clinical procedures, and collection of laboratory specimens was delivered to 331 clinical staff at 9 study sites in 7 countries (The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Zambia, Thailand, and Bangladesh), through 32 on-site courses and a training website. Staff competency was assessed throughout 24 months of enrollment with multiple-choice question (MCQ) examinations, a video quiz, and checklist evaluations of practical skills.

Results.

MCQ evaluation was confined to 158 clinical staff members who enrolled PERCH cases and controls, with scores obtained for >86% of eligible staff at each time-point. Median scores after baseline training were ≥80%, and improved by 10 percentage points with refresher training, with no significant intersite differences. Percentage agreement with the clinical trainer on the presence or absence of clinical signs on video clips was high (≥89%), with interobserver concordance being substantial to high (AC1 statistic, 0.62–0.82) for 5 of 6 signs assessed. Staff attained median scores of >90% in checklist evaluations of practical skills.

Conclusions.

Satisfactory clinical standardization was achieved within and across all PERCH sites, providing reassurance that any etiological or clinical differences observed across the study sites are true differences, and not attributable to differences in application of the clinical case definition, interpretation of clinical signs, or in techniques used for clinical measurements or specimen collection.

Should Controls With Respiratory Symptoms Be Excluded From Case-Control Studies of Pneumonia Etiology? Reflections From the PERCH Study

Many pneumonia etiology case-control studies exclude controls with respiratory illness from enrollment or analyses. Herein we argue that selecting controls regardless of respiratory symptoms provides the least biased estimates of pneumonia etiology. We review 3 reasons investigators may choose to exclude controls with respiratory symptoms in light of epidemiologic principles of control selection and present data from the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study where relevant to assess their validity. We conclude that exclusion of controls with respiratory symptoms will result in biased estimates of etiology. Randomly selected community controls, with or without respiratory symptoms, as long as they do not meet the criteria for case-defining pneumonia, are most representative of the general population from which cases arose and the least subject to selection bias.

Microscopic Analysis and Quality Assessment of Induced Sputum From Children With Pneumonia in the PERCH Study

Background.

It is standard practice for laboratories to assess the cellular quality of expectorated sputum specimens to check that they originated from the lower respiratory tract. The presence of low numbers of squamous epithelial cells (SECs) and high numbers of polymorphonuclear (PMN) cells are regarded as indicative of a lower respiratory tract specimen. However, these quality ratings have never been evaluated for induced sputum specimens from children with suspected pneumonia.

Methods.

We evaluated induced sputum Gram stain smears and cultures from hospitalized children aged 1–59 months enrolled in a large study of community-acquired pneumonia. We hypothesized that a specimen representative of the lower respiratory tract will contain smaller quantities of oropharyngeal flora and be more likely to have a predominance of potential pathogens compared to a specimen containing mainly saliva. The prevalence of potential pathogens cultured from induced sputum specimens and quantity of oropharyngeal flora were compared for different quantities of SECs and PMNs.

Results.

Of 3772 induced sputum specimens, 2608 (69%) had <10 SECs per low-power field (LPF) and 2350 (62%) had >25 PMNs per LPF, measures traditionally associated with specimens from the lower respiratory tract in adults. Using isolation of low quantities of oropharyngeal flora and higher prevalence of potential pathogens as markers of higher quality, <10 SECs per LPF (but not >25 PMNs per LPF) was the microscopic variable most associated with high quality of induced sputum.

Conclusions.

Quantity of SECs may be a useful quality measure of induced sputum from young children with pneumonia.

The Diagnostic Utility of Induced Sputum Microscopy and Culture in Childhood Pneumonia

Background.

Sputum microscopy and culture are commonly used for diagnosing the cause of pneumonia in adults but are rarely performed in children due to difficulties in obtaining specimens. Induced sputum is occasionally used to investigate lower respiratory infections in children but has not been widely used in pneumonia etiology studies.

Methods.

We evaluated the diagnostic utility of induced sputum microscopy and culture in patients enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study, a large study of community-acquired pneumonia in children aged 1–59 months. Comparisons were made between induced sputum samples from hospitalized children with radiographically confirmed pneumonia and children categorized as nonpneumonia (due to the absence of prespecified clinical and laboratory signs and absence of infiltrate on chest radiograph).

Results.

One induced sputum sample was available for analysis from 3772 (89.1%) of 4232 suspected pneumonia cases enrolled in PERCH. Of these, sputum from 2608 (69.1%) met the quality criterion of <10 squamous epithelial cells per low-power field, and 1162 (44.6%) had radiographic pneumonia. Induced sputum microscopy and culture results were not associated with radiographic pneumonia, regardless of prior antibiotic use, stratification by specific bacteria, or interpretative criteria used.

Conclusions.

The findings of this study do not support the culture of induced sputum specimens as a diagnostic tool for pneumonia in young children as part of routine clinical practice.

Limited Utility of Polymerase Chain Reaction in Induced Sputum Specimens for Determining the Causes of Childhood Pneumonia in Resource-Poor Settings: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study

Background.

Sputum examination can be useful in diagnosing the cause of pneumonia in adults but is less well established in children. We sought to assess the diagnostic utility of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of respiratory viruses and bacteria in induced sputum (IS) specimens from children hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia.

Methods.

Among children aged 1–59 months, we compared organism detection by multiplex PCR in IS and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) specimens. To assess whether organism presence or density in IS specimens was associated with chest radiographic evidence of pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia), we compared prevalence and density in IS specimens from children with radiographic pneumonia and children with suspected pneumonia but without chest radiographic changes or clinical or laboratory findings suggestive of pneumonia (nonpneumonia group).

Results.

Among 4232 cases with World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia, we identified 1935 (45.7%) with radiographic pneumonia and 573 (13.5%) with nonpneumonia. The organism detection yield was marginally improved with IS specimens (96.2% vs 92.4% for NP/OP specimens for all viruses combined [P = .41]; 96.9% vs 93.3% for all bacteria combined [P = .01]). After accounting for presence in NP/OP specimens, no organism was detected more frequently in the IS specimens from the radiographic pneumonia compared with the nonpneumonia cases. Among high-quality IS specimens, there were no statistically significant differences in organism density, except with cytomegalovirus, for which there was a higher quantity in the IS specimens from cases with radiographic pneumonia compared with the nonpneumonia cases (median cycle threshold value, 27.9 vs 28.5, respectively; P = .01).

Conclusions.

Using advanced molecular methods with IS specimens provided little additional diagnostic information beyond that obtained with NP/OP swab specimens.

The Effect of Antibiotic Exposure and Specimen Volume on the Detection of Bacterial Pathogens in Children With Pneumonia

Background.

Antibiotic exposure and specimen volume are known to affect pathogen detection by culture. Here we assess their effects on bacterial pathogen detection by both culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in children.

Methods.

PERCH (Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health) is a case-control study of pneumonia in children aged 1–59 months investigating pathogens in blood, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swabs, and induced sputum by culture and PCR. Antibiotic exposure was ascertained by serum bioassay, and for cases, by a record of antibiotic treatment prior to specimen collection. Inoculated blood culture bottles were weighed to estimate volume.

Results.

Antibiotic exposure ranged by specimen type from 43.5% to 81.7% in 4223 cases and was detected in 2.3% of 4863 controls. Antibiotics were associated with a 45% reduction in blood culture yield and approximately 20% reduction in yield from induced sputum culture. Reduction in yield of Streptococcus pneumoniae from NP culture was approximately 30% in cases and approximately 32% in controls. Several bacteria had significant but marginal reductions (by 5%–7%) in detection by PCR in NP/OP swabs from both cases and controls, with the exception of S. pneumoniae in exposed controls, which was detected 25% less frequently compared to nonexposed controls. Bacterial detection in induced sputum by PCR decreased 7% for exposed compared to nonexposed cases. For every additional 1 mL of blood culture specimen collected, microbial yield increased 0.51% (95% confidence interval, 0.47%–0.54%), from 2% when volume was ≤1 mL to approximately 6% for ≥3 mL.

Conclusions.

Antibiotic exposure and blood culture volume affect detection of bacterial pathogens in children with pneumonia and should be accounted for in studies of etiology and in clinical management.

Association of C-Reactive Protein With Bacterial and Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Pneumonia Among Children Aged <5 Years in the PERCH Study

Background.

Lack of a gold standard for identifying bacterial and viral etiologies of pneumonia has limited evaluation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for identifying bacterial pneumonia. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP for identifying bacterial vs respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) multicenter case-control study.

Methods.

We measured serum CRP levels in cases with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia and a subset of community controls. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of elevated CRP for "confirmed" bacterial pneumonia (positive blood culture or positive lung aspirate or pleural fluid culture or polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) compared to "RSV pneumonia" (nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal or induced sputum PCR-positive without confirmed/suspected bacterial pneumonia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the performance of elevated CRP in distinguishing these cases.

Results.

Among 601 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative tested controls, 3% had CRP ≥40 mg/L. Among 119 HIV-negative cases with confirmed bacterial pneumonia, 77% had CRP ≥40 mg/L compared with 17% of 556 RSV pneumonia cases. The ROC analysis produced an area under the curve of 0.87, indicating very good discrimination; a cut-point of 37.1 mg/L best discriminated confirmed bacterial pneumonia (sensitivity 77%) from RSV pneumonia (specificity 82%). CRP ≥100 mg/L substantially improved specificity over CRP ≥40 mg/L, though at a loss to sensitivity.

Conclusions.

Elevated CRP was positively associated with confirmed bacterial pneumonia and negatively associated with RSV pneumonia in PERCH. CRP may be useful for distinguishing bacterial from RSV-associated pneumonia, although its role in discriminating against other respiratory viral-associated pneumonia needs further study.

The Incremental Value of Repeated Induced Sputum and Gastric Aspirate Samples for the Diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Young Children With Acute Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) contributes to the pathogenesis of childhood acute community-acquired pneumonia in settings with a high tuberculosis burden. The incremental value of a repeated induced sputum (IS) sample, compared with a single IS or gastric aspirate (GA) sample, is not well known.

Methods.

Two IS samples were obtained for Mtb culture from children enrolled as cases in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study in South Africa. Nonstudy attending physicians requested GA if pulmonary tuberculosis was clinically suspected. We compared the Mtb yield of 2 IS samples to that of 1 IS sample and GA samples.

Results

. Twenty-seven (3.0%) culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases were identified among 906 children investigated with IS and GA samples for Mtb. Results from 2 IS samples were available for 719 children (79.4%). Of 12 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases identified among children with ≥2 IS samples, 4 (33.3%) were negative at the first IS sample. In head-to-head comparisons among children with both GA and IS samples collected, the yield of 1 GA sample (8 of 427; 1.9%) was similar to that of 1 IS sample (5 of 427, 1.2%), and the yield of 2 GA samples (10 of 300; 3.3%) was similar to that of 2 IS samples (5 of 300; 1.7%). IS samples identified 8 (42.1%) of the 19 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases that were identified through submission of IS and GA samples.

Conclusions.

A single IS sample underestimated the presence of Mtb in children hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia. Detection of Mtb is enhanced by combining 2 IS with GA sample collections in young children with acute severe pneumonia.

Safety of Induced Sputum Collection in Children Hospitalized With Severe or Very Severe Pneumonia

Background.

Induced sputum (IS) may provide diagnostic information about the etiology of pneumonia. The safety of this procedure across a heterogeneous population with severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries has not been described.

Methods.

IS specimens were obtained as part a 7-country study of the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in hospitalized children <5 years of age. Rigorous clinical monitoring was done before, during, and after the procedure to record oxygen requirement, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, consciousness level, and other evidence of clinical deterioration. Criteria for IS contraindications were predefined and serious adverse events (SAEs) were reported to ethics committees and a central safety monitor.

Results.

A total of 4653 IS procedures were done among 3802 children. Thirteen SAEs were reported in relation to collection of IS, or 0.34% of children with at least 1 IS specimen collected (95% confidence interval, 0.15%–0.53%). A drop in oxygen saturation that required supplemental oxygen was the most common SAE. One child died after feeding was reinitiated 2 hours after undergoing sputum induction; this death was categorized as “possibly related” to the procedure.

Conclusions.

The overall frequency of SAEs was very low, and the nature of most SAEs was manageable, demonstrating a low-risk safety profile for IS collection even among severely ill children in low-income-country settings. Healthcare providers should monitor oxygen saturation and requirements during and after IS collection, and assess patients prior to reinitiating feeding after the IS procedure, to ensure patient safety.

Standardized Interpretation of Chest Radiographs in Cases of Pediatric Pneumonia From the PERCH Study

Background.

Chest radiographs (CXRs) are a valuable diagnostic tool in epidemiologic studies of pneumonia. The World Health Organization (WHO) methodology for the interpretation of pediatric CXRs has not been evaluated beyond its intended application as an endpoint measure for bacterial vaccine trials.

Methods.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study enrolled children aged 1–59 months hospitalized with WHO-defined severe and very severe pneumonia from 7 low- and middle-income countries. An interpretation process categorized each CXR into 1 of 5 conclusions: consolidation, other infiltrate, both consolidation and other infiltrate, normal, or uninterpretable. Two members of a 14-person reading panel, who had undertaken training and standardization in CXR interpretation, interpreted each CXR. Two members of an arbitration panel provided additional independent reviews of CXRs with discordant interpretations at the primary reading, blinded to previous reports. Further discordance was resolved with consensus discussion.

Results.

A total of 4172 CXRs were obtained from 4232 cases. Observed agreement for detecting consolidation (with or without other infiltrate) between primary readers was 78% (κ = 0.50) and between arbitrators was 84% (κ = 0.61); agreement for primary readers and arbitrators across 5 conclusion categories was 43.5% (κ = 0.25) and 48.5% (κ = 0.32), respectively. Disagreement was most frequent between conclusions of other infiltrate and normal for both the reading panel and the arbitration panel (32% and 30% of discordant CXRs, respectively).

Conclusions.

Agreement was similar to that of previous evaluations using the WHO methodology for detecting consolidation, but poor for other infiltrates despite attempts at a rigorous standardization process.

Density of Upper Respiratory Colonization With Streptococcus pneumoniae and Its Role in the Diagnosis of Pneumococcal Pneumonia Among Children Aged <5 Years in the PERCH Study

Background

Previous studies suggested an association between upper airway pneumococcal colonization density and pneumococcal pneumonia, but data in children are limited. Using data from the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study, we assessed this potential association.

Methods

PERCH is a case-control study in 7 countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. Cases were children aged 1–59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia. Controls were randomly selected from the community. Microbiologically confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia (MCPP) was confirmed by detection of pneumococcus in a relevant normally sterile body fluid. Colonization density was calculated with quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal specimens.

Results

Median colonization density among 56 cases with MCPP (MCPP cases; 17.28 × 10⁶ copies/mL) exceeded that of cases without MCPP (non-MCPP cases; 0.75 × 10⁶) and controls (0.60 × 10⁶) (each P < .001). The optimal density for discriminating MCPP cases from controls using the Youden index was >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL; overall, the sensitivity was 64% and the specificity 92%, with variable performance by site. The threshold was lower (≥4.4 log₁₀ copies/mL) when MCPP cases were distinguished from controls who received antibiotics before specimen collection. Among the 4035 non-MCPP cases, 500 (12%) had pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL; above this cutoff was associated with alveolar consolidation at chest radiography, very severe pneumonia, oxygen saturation <92%, C-reactive protein ≥40 mg/L, and lack of antibiotic pretreatment (all P< .001).

Conclusions

Pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL was strongly associated with MCPP and could be used to improve estimates of pneumococcal pneumonia prevalence in childhood pneumonia studies. Our findings do not support its use for individual diagnosis in a clinical setting.