Factors predicting mortality in hospitalised HIV-negative children with lower-chest-wall indrawing pneumonia and implications for management

INTRODUCTION

In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model.

METHODS

PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2.

RESULTS

Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76).

CONCLUSIONS

Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.

Phenotypic and molecular characterization of beta-lactam resistant Multidrug-resistant Enterobacterales isolated from patients attending six hospitals in Northern Nigeria

Infections caused by multi-drug resistant Enterobacterales (MDR-E) are difficult to treat and cause significant mortality, especially in developing countries. This study characterized the phenotypic and genotypic profiles of 49 randomly selected beta-lactam resistant MDR-E previously isolated from patients being managed in hospitals in Nigeria using whole genome sequencing. The study isolates exhibited 85.5% resistance to 3rd generation cephalosporins and 65.3% resistance to carbapenems. The bla_TEM-1B (29, 59.2%)_, bla_CTX-M-15 (38, 77.6%)_, and bla_NDM-1 (17, 51.5%) were the most common penicillinase, ESBL, and carbapenem resistant genes across isolates, respectively. Seventeen (45%) of bla_CTX-M-15 was carried on the insertion sequence ISEc9 while bla_NDM-1 (11, 64.7%) were associated with ISEc33. None of the 21 plasmids detected were associated with β-lactamase genes. Higher resistance rates were found in E. coli ST-88 (n = 2) and the high-risk ST-692 (n = 2). For Klebsiella species, the high-risk clones ST-476 (n = 8) and ST-147 (n = 3) predominated and had higher phenotypic resistance rates and higher number of AMR genes. The mechanisms and pattern of antibiotic resistance differ from patterns previously described with isolates harbouring a wide range of AMRGs. The detection of several chromosomally mediated carbapenemases in our study also represents a significant finding that warrants further investigation to better understand its' implications for clinical practice and public health. The selected MDR-Es were found to be pan-susceptible to tigecycline and had very low resistance to fosfomycin, suggesting a potential for these as empiric treatments. A surveillance approach incorporating both conventional laboratory techniques and modern molecular techniques is essential for the comprehensive characterization of the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance in Enterobacterales infections within Nigeria.

Tackling antimicrobial resistance across sub-Saharan Africa: current challenges and implications for the future

INTRODUCTION

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a concern as this increases morbidity, mortality, and costs, with sub-Saharan Africa having the highest rates globally. Concerns with rising AMR have resulted in international, Pan-African, and country activities including the development of national action plans (NAPs). However, there is variable implementation across Africa with key challenges persisting.

AREAS COVERED

Consequently, there is an urgent need to document current NAP activities and challenges across sub-Saharan Africa to provide future guidance. This builds on a narrative review of the literature.

EXPERT OPINION

All surveyed sub-Saharan African countries have developed their NAPs; however, there is variable implementation. Countries including Botswana and Namibia are yet to officially launch their NAPs with Eswatini only recently launching its NAP. Cameroon is further ahead with its NAP than these countries; though there are concerns with implementation. South Africa appears to have made the greatest strides with implementing its NAP including regular monitoring of activities and instigation of antimicrobial stewardship programs. Key challenges remain across Africa. These include available personnel, expertise, capacity, and resources to undertake agreed NAP activities including active surveillance, lack of focal points to drive NAPs, and competing demands and priorities including among donors. These challenges are being addressed, with further co-ordinated efforts needed to reduce AMR.

The Etiology of Pneumonia From Analysis of Lung Aspirate and Pleural Fluid Samples: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study

BACKGROUND

An improved understanding of childhood pneumonia etiology is required to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Lung aspiration is the gold standard specimen for pneumonia diagnostics. We report findings from analyses of lung and pleural aspirates collected in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study.

METHODS

The PERCH study enrolled children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. Percutaneous transthoracic lung aspiration (LA) and pleural fluid (PF) aspiration was performed on a sample of pneumonia cases with radiological consolidation and/or PF in 4 countries. Venous blood and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from all cases. Multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and routine microbiologic culture were applied to clinical specimens.

RESULTS

Of 44 LAs performed within 3 days of admission on 622 eligible cases, 13 (30%) had a pathogen identified by either culture (5/44) or by PCR (11/29). A pathogen was identified in 12/14 (86%) PF specimens tested by either culture (9/14) or PCR (9/11). Bacterial pathogens were identified more frequently than viruses. All but 1 of the cases with a virus identified were coinfected with bacterial pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae (9/44 [20%]) and Staphylococcus aureus (7/14 [50%]) were the predominant pathogens identified in LA and PF, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Bacterial pathogens predominated in this selected subgroup of PERCH participants drawn from those with radiological consolidation or PF, with S. pneumoniae and S. aureus the leading pathogens identified.

The Etiology of Childhood Pneumonia in The Gambia: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in young children globally. The changing epidemiology of pneumonia requires up-to-date data to guide both case management and prevention programs. The Gambia study site contributed a high child mortality, high pneumonia incidence, low HIV prevalence, Haemophilus influenzae type b and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines-vaccinated rural West African setting to the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

METHODS

The PERCH study was a 7-country case-control study of the etiology of hospitalized severe pneumonia in children 1-59 months of age in low and middle-income countries. Culture and nucleic acid detection methods were used to test nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs, blood, induced sputum and, in selected cases, lung or pleural fluid aspirates. Etiology was determined by integrating case and control data from multiple specimens using the PERCH integrated analysis based on Bayesian probabilistic methods.

RESULTS

At The Gambia study site, 638 cases of World Health Organization-defined severe and very severe pneumonia (286 of which were chest radiograph [CXR]-positive and HIV-negative) and 654 age-frequency matched controls were enrolled. Viral causes predominated overall (viral 58% vs. bacterial 28%), and of CXR-positive cases respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) accounted for 37%, Streptococcus pneumoniae 13% and parainfluenza was responsible for 9%. Nevertheless, among very severe cases bacterial causes dominated (77% bacterial vs. 11% viral), led by S. pneumoniae (41%); Mycobacterium tuberculosis, not included in "bacterial", accounted for 9%. 93% and 80% of controls ≥1 year of age were, respectively, fully vaccinated for age against Haemophilus influenzae and S. pneumoniae.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral causes, notably RSV, predominated in The Gambia overall, but bacterial causes dominated the severest cases. Efforts must continue to prevent disease by optimizing access to existing vaccines, and to develop new vaccines, notably against RSV. A continued emphasis on appropriate case management of severe pneumonia remains important.

The development and implementation of an oxygen treatment solution for health facilities in low and middle-income countries

Background

Oxygen reduces mortality from severe pneumonia and is a vital part of case management, but achieving reliable access to oxygen is challenging in low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We developed and field tested two oxygen supply solutions suitable for the realities of LMIC health facilities.

Methods

A Health Needs Assessment identified a technology gap preventing reliable oxygen supplies in Gambian hospitals. We used simultaneous engineering to develop two solutions: a Mains-Power Storage (Mains-PS) system consisting of an oxygen concentrator and batteries connected to mains power, and a Solar-Power Storage (Solar-PS) system (with batteries charged by photovoltaic panels) and evaluated them in health facilities in The Gambia and Fiji to assess reliability, usability and costs.

Results

The Mains-PS system delivered the specified ≥85% (±3%) oxygen concentration in 100% of 1-2 weekly measurements over 12 months, which was available to 100% of hypoxaemic patients, and 100% of users rated ease-of-use as at least ‘good’ (90% very good or excellent). The Solar-PS system delivered ≥85% ± 3%) oxygen concentration in 100% of 1-2 weekly measurements, was available to 100% of patients needing oxygen, and 100% of users rated ease-of-use at least very good.

Costs for the systems (in US dollars) were: PS$9519, Solar-PS standard version $20 718. The of oxygen for a standardised 30-bed health facility using 1.7 million litres of oxygen per year was: for cylinders 3.2 cents (c)/L in The Gambia and 6.8 c/L in Fiji, for the PS system 1.2 c/L in both countries, and for the Solar-PS system 1.5 c/L in both countries.

Conclusions

The oxygen systems developed and tested delivered high-quality, reliable, cost-efficient oxygen in LMIC contexts, and were easy to operate. Reliable oxygen supplies are achievable in LMIC health facilities like those in The Gambia and Fiji.

Impact of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia in The Gambia: 10 years of population-based surveillance

Background

The Gambia introduced seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in August 2009, followed by PCV13 in May, 2011, using a schedule of three primary doses without a booster dose or catch-up immunisation. We aimed to assess the long-term impact of PCV on disease incidence.

Methods

We did 10 years of population-based surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and WHO defined radiological pneumonia with consolidation in rural Gambia. The surveillance population included all Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System residents aged 2 months or older. Nurses screened all outpatients and inpatients at all health facilities using standardised criteria for referral. Clinicians then applied criteria for patient investigation. We defined IPD as a compatible illness with isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae from a normally sterile site (cerebrospinal fluid, blood, or pleural fluid). We compared disease incidence between baseline (May 12, 2008–May 11, 2010) and post-vaccine years (2016–2017), in children aged 2 months to 14 years, adjusting for changes in case ascertainment over time.

Findings

We identified 22 728 patients for investigation and detected 342 cases of IPD and 2623 cases of radiological pneumonia. Among children aged 2–59 months, IPD incidence declined from 184 cases per 100 000 person-years to 38 cases per 100 000 person-years, an 80% reduction (95% CI 69–87). Non-pneumococcal bacteraemia incidence did not change significantly over time (incidence rate ratio 0·88; 95% CI, 0·64–1·21). We detected zero cases of vaccine-type IPD in the 2–11 month age group in 2016–17. Incidence of radiological pneumonia decreased by 33% (95% CI 24–40), from 10·5 to 7·0 per 1000 person-years in the 2–59 month age group, while pneumonia hospitalisations declined by 27% (95% CI 22–31). In the 5–14 year age group, IPD incidence declined by 69% (95% CI −28 to 91) and radiological pneumonia by 27% (95% CI −5 to 49).

Interpretation

Routine introduction of PCV13 substantially reduced the incidence of childhood IPD and pneumonia in rural Gambia, including elimination of vaccine-type IPD in infants. Other low-income countries can expect substantial impact from the introduction of PCV13 using a schedule of three primary doses.

Funding

Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; Pfizer Ltd.

A multicentre point prevalence study of antibiotics utilization in hospitalized patients in an urban secondary and a tertiary healthcare facilities in Nigeria: findings and implications

OBJECTIVES

The understanding of antimicrobial utilization patterns is pertinent to successful implementation of the National Action Plans on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). There is, however, limited information on antibiotics utilization in Nigeria. This study was undertaken to build on existing information and provide direction for appropriate interventions including Antibiotics Stewardship Programs (ASP).

METHOD

A Point Prevalence Study (PPS) was conducted in two public urban health facilities in Lagos, Nigeria using a design adapted from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and Global-PPS surveys.

RESULTS

The prevalence of antibiotics use was 80.6% administered mostly parenterally (83.1% of total prescriptions) with concerns with extended surgical antibiotics prophylaxis. The mostly used antibiotics in the secondary hospital were parenteral metronidazole (32.4%), ceftriaxone (27.5%), and amoxicillin + clavulanate (8.2%) while the mostly used in the tertiary hospital were ceftriaxone (25.3%), parenteral metronidazole (19.1%), and amoxicillin + clavulanate (9.3%). There was an appreciable lack of specific functional capacities, policies, and processes to promote appropriate antimicrobial use in both hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

There is high rate of antibiotics utilization in these facilities with lack of institutional frameworks and processes for ensuring appropriate antibiotic use. The study provides the information needed to improve future antimicrobial use in hospitals and reduce AMR.

The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries

Background

In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1−59 months.

Methods

Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)−negative children aged 1–59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011−2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic.

Results

Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs).

Conclusions

The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Digital auscultation in PERCH: Associations with chest radiography and pneumonia mortality in children

BACKGROUND

Whether digitally recorded lung sounds are associated with radiographic pneumonia or clinical outcomes among children in low-income and middle-income countries is unknown. We sought to address these knowledge gaps.

METHODS

We enrolled 1 to 59monthold children hospitalized with pneumonia at eight African and Asian Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health sites in six countries, recorded digital stethoscope lung sounds, obtained chest radiographs, and collected clinical outcomes. Recordings were processed and classified into binary categories positive or negative for adventitial lung sounds. Listening and reading panels classified recordings and radiographs. Recording classification associations with chest radiographs with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia) or mortality were evaluated. We also examined case fatality among risk strata.

RESULTS

Among children without WHO danger signs, wheezing (without crackles) had a lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for radiographic pneumonia (0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.82), compared to children with normal recordings. Neither crackle only (no wheeze) (aOR: 2.13, 95% CI: 0.91, 4.96) or any wheeze (with or without crackle) (aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.34, 1.15) were associated with radiographic pneumonia. Among children with WHO danger signs no lung recording classification was independently associated with radiographic pneumonia, although trends toward greater odds of radiographic pneumonia were observed among children classified with crackle only (no wheeze) or any wheeze (with or without crackle). Among children without WHO danger signs, those with recorded wheezing had a lower case fatality than those without wheezing (3.8% vs. 9.1%, p = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

Among lower risk children without WHO danger signs digitally recorded wheezing is associated with a lower odds for radiographic pneumonia and with lower mortality. Although further research is needed, these data indicate that with further development digital auscultation may eventually contribute to child pneumonia care.

Causes of severe pneumonia requiring hospital admission in children without HIV infection from Africa and Asia: the PERCH multi-country case-control study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is the leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years. In this study, we estimated causes of pneumonia in young African and Asian children, using novel analytical methods applied to clinical and microbiological findings.

METHODS

We did a multi-site, international case-control study in nine study sites in seven countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. All sites enrolled in the study for 24 months. Cases were children aged 1-59 months admitted to hospital with severe pneumonia. Controls were age-group-matched children randomly selected from communities surrounding study sites. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP-OP), urine, blood, induced sputum, lung aspirate, pleural fluid, and gastric aspirates were tested with cultures, multiplex PCR, or both. Primary analyses were restricted to cases without HIV infection and with abnormal chest x-rays and to controls without HIV infection. We applied a Bayesian, partial latent class analysis to estimate probabilities of aetiological agents at the individual and population level, incorporating case and control data.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 15, 2011, and Jan 30, 2014, we enrolled 4232 cases and 5119 community controls. The primary analysis group was comprised of 1769 (41·8% of 4232) cases without HIV infection and with positive chest x-rays and 5102 (99·7% of 5119) community controls without HIV infection. Wheezing was present in 555 (31·7%) of 1752 cases (range by site 10·6-97·3%). 30-day case-fatality ratio was 6·4% (114 of 1769 cases). Blood cultures were positive in 56 (3·2%) of 1749 cases, and Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common bacteria isolated (19 [33·9%] of 56). Almost all cases (98·9%) and controls (98·0%) had at least one pathogen detected by PCR in the NP-OP specimen. The detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, influenza virus, S pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), H influenzae non-type b, and Pneumocystis jirovecii in NP-OP specimens was associated with case status. The aetiology analysis estimated that viruses accounted for 61·4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 57·3-65·6) of causes, whereas bacteria accounted for 27·3% (23·3-31·6) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis for 5·9% (3·9-8·3). Viruses were less common (54·5%, 95% CrI 47·4-61·5 vs 68·0%, 62·7-72·7) and bacteria more common (33·7%, 27·2-40·8 vs 22·8%, 18·3-27·6) in very severe pneumonia cases than in severe cases. RSV had the greatest aetiological fraction (31·1%, 95% CrI 28·4-34·2) of all pathogens. Human rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus A or B, human parainfluenza virus, S pneumoniae, M tuberculosis, and H influenzae each accounted for 5% or more of the aetiological distribution. We observed differences in aetiological fraction by age for Bordetella pertussis, parainfluenza types 1 and 3, parechovirus-enterovirus, P jirovecii, RSV, rhinovirus, Staphylococcus aureus, and S pneumoniae, and differences by severity for RSV, S aureus, S pneumoniae, and parainfluenza type 3. The leading ten pathogens of each site accounted for 79% or more of the site's aetiological fraction.

INTERPRETATION

In our study, a small set of pathogens accounted for most cases of pneumonia requiring hospital admission. Preventing and treating a subset of pathogens could substantially affect childhood pneumonia outcomes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Standardization of Clinical Assessment and Sample Collection Across All PERCH Study Sites

Background.

Variable adherence to standardized case definitions, clinical procedures, specimen collection techniques, and laboratory methods has complicated the interpretation of previous multicenter pneumonia etiology studies. To circumvent these problems, a program of clinical standardization was embedded in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study.

Methods.

Between March 2011 and August 2013, standardized training on the PERCH case definition, clinical procedures, and collection of laboratory specimens was delivered to 331 clinical staff at 9 study sites in 7 countries (The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Zambia, Thailand, and Bangladesh), through 32 on-site courses and a training website. Staff competency was assessed throughout 24 months of enrollment with multiple-choice question (MCQ) examinations, a video quiz, and checklist evaluations of practical skills.

Results.

MCQ evaluation was confined to 158 clinical staff members who enrolled PERCH cases and controls, with scores obtained for >86% of eligible staff at each time-point. Median scores after baseline training were ≥80%, and improved by 10 percentage points with refresher training, with no significant intersite differences. Percentage agreement with the clinical trainer on the presence or absence of clinical signs on video clips was high (≥89%), with interobserver concordance being substantial to high (AC1 statistic, 0.62–0.82) for 5 of 6 signs assessed. Staff attained median scores of >90% in checklist evaluations of practical skills.

Conclusions.

Satisfactory clinical standardization was achieved within and across all PERCH sites, providing reassurance that any etiological or clinical differences observed across the study sites are true differences, and not attributable to differences in application of the clinical case definition, interpretation of clinical signs, or in techniques used for clinical measurements or specimen collection.

Microscopic Analysis and Quality Assessment of Induced Sputum From Children With Pneumonia in the PERCH Study

Background.

It is standard practice for laboratories to assess the cellular quality of expectorated sputum specimens to check that they originated from the lower respiratory tract. The presence of low numbers of squamous epithelial cells (SECs) and high numbers of polymorphonuclear (PMN) cells are regarded as indicative of a lower respiratory tract specimen. However, these quality ratings have never been evaluated for induced sputum specimens from children with suspected pneumonia.

Methods.

We evaluated induced sputum Gram stain smears and cultures from hospitalized children aged 1–59 months enrolled in a large study of community-acquired pneumonia. We hypothesized that a specimen representative of the lower respiratory tract will contain smaller quantities of oropharyngeal flora and be more likely to have a predominance of potential pathogens compared to a specimen containing mainly saliva. The prevalence of potential pathogens cultured from induced sputum specimens and quantity of oropharyngeal flora were compared for different quantities of SECs and PMNs.

Results.

Of 3772 induced sputum specimens, 2608 (69%) had <10 SECs per low-power field (LPF) and 2350 (62%) had >25 PMNs per LPF, measures traditionally associated with specimens from the lower respiratory tract in adults. Using isolation of low quantities of oropharyngeal flora and higher prevalence of potential pathogens as markers of higher quality, <10 SECs per LPF (but not >25 PMNs per LPF) was the microscopic variable most associated with high quality of induced sputum.

Conclusions.

Quantity of SECs may be a useful quality measure of induced sputum from young children with pneumonia.

Is Higher Viral Load in the Upper Respiratory Tract Associated With Severe Pneumonia? Findings From the PERCH Study

Background.

The etiologic inference of identifying a pathogen in the upper respiratory tract (URT) of children with pneumonia is unclear. To determine if viral load could provide evidence of causality of pneumonia, we compared viral load in the URT of children with World Health Organization–defined severe and very severe pneumonia and age-matched community controls.

Methods.

In the 9 developing country sites, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children with and without pneumonia were tested using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for 17 viruses. The association of viral load with case status was evaluated using logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine optimal discriminatory viral load cutoffs. Viral load density distributions were plotted.

Results.

The mean viral load was higher in cases than controls for 7 viruses. However, there was substantial overlap in viral load distribution of cases and controls for all viruses. ROC curves to determine the optimal viral load cutoff produced an area under the curve of <0.80 for all viruses, suggesting poor to fair discrimination between cases and controls. Fatal and very severe pneumonia cases did not have higher viral load than less severe cases for most viruses.

Conclusions.

Although we found higher viral loads among pneumonia cases than controls for some viruses, the utility in using viral load of URT specimens to define viral pneumonia was equivocal. Our analysis was limited by lack of a gold standard for viral pneumonia.

The Effect of Antibiotic Exposure and Specimen Volume on the Detection of Bacterial Pathogens in Children With Pneumonia

Background.

Antibiotic exposure and specimen volume are known to affect pathogen detection by culture. Here we assess their effects on bacterial pathogen detection by both culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in children.

Methods.

PERCH (Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health) is a case-control study of pneumonia in children aged 1–59 months investigating pathogens in blood, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swabs, and induced sputum by culture and PCR. Antibiotic exposure was ascertained by serum bioassay, and for cases, by a record of antibiotic treatment prior to specimen collection. Inoculated blood culture bottles were weighed to estimate volume.

Results.

Antibiotic exposure ranged by specimen type from 43.5% to 81.7% in 4223 cases and was detected in 2.3% of 4863 controls. Antibiotics were associated with a 45% reduction in blood culture yield and approximately 20% reduction in yield from induced sputum culture. Reduction in yield of Streptococcus pneumoniae from NP culture was approximately 30% in cases and approximately 32% in controls. Several bacteria had significant but marginal reductions (by 5%–7%) in detection by PCR in NP/OP swabs from both cases and controls, with the exception of S. pneumoniae in exposed controls, which was detected 25% less frequently compared to nonexposed controls. Bacterial detection in induced sputum by PCR decreased 7% for exposed compared to nonexposed cases. For every additional 1 mL of blood culture specimen collected, microbial yield increased 0.51% (95% confidence interval, 0.47%–0.54%), from 2% when volume was ≤1 mL to approximately 6% for ≥3 mL.

Conclusions.

Antibiotic exposure and blood culture volume affect detection of bacterial pathogens in children with pneumonia and should be accounted for in studies of etiology and in clinical management.

Association of C-Reactive Protein With Bacterial and Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Pneumonia Among Children Aged <5 Years in the PERCH Study

Background.

Lack of a gold standard for identifying bacterial and viral etiologies of pneumonia has limited evaluation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for identifying bacterial pneumonia. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP for identifying bacterial vs respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) multicenter case-control study.

Methods.

We measured serum CRP levels in cases with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia and a subset of community controls. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of elevated CRP for "confirmed" bacterial pneumonia (positive blood culture or positive lung aspirate or pleural fluid culture or polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) compared to "RSV pneumonia" (nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal or induced sputum PCR-positive without confirmed/suspected bacterial pneumonia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the performance of elevated CRP in distinguishing these cases.

Results.

Among 601 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative tested controls, 3% had CRP ≥40 mg/L. Among 119 HIV-negative cases with confirmed bacterial pneumonia, 77% had CRP ≥40 mg/L compared with 17% of 556 RSV pneumonia cases. The ROC analysis produced an area under the curve of 0.87, indicating very good discrimination; a cut-point of 37.1 mg/L best discriminated confirmed bacterial pneumonia (sensitivity 77%) from RSV pneumonia (specificity 82%). CRP ≥100 mg/L substantially improved specificity over CRP ≥40 mg/L, though at a loss to sensitivity.

Conclusions.

Elevated CRP was positively associated with confirmed bacterial pneumonia and negatively associated with RSV pneumonia in PERCH. CRP may be useful for distinguishing bacterial from RSV-associated pneumonia, although its role in discriminating against other respiratory viral-associated pneumonia needs further study.

Safety of Induced Sputum Collection in Children Hospitalized With Severe or Very Severe Pneumonia

Background.

Induced sputum (IS) may provide diagnostic information about the etiology of pneumonia. The safety of this procedure across a heterogeneous population with severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries has not been described.

Methods.

IS specimens were obtained as part a 7-country study of the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in hospitalized children <5 years of age. Rigorous clinical monitoring was done before, during, and after the procedure to record oxygen requirement, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, consciousness level, and other evidence of clinical deterioration. Criteria for IS contraindications were predefined and serious adverse events (SAEs) were reported to ethics committees and a central safety monitor.

Results.

A total of 4653 IS procedures were done among 3802 children. Thirteen SAEs were reported in relation to collection of IS, or 0.34% of children with at least 1 IS specimen collected (95% confidence interval, 0.15%–0.53%). A drop in oxygen saturation that required supplemental oxygen was the most common SAE. One child died after feeding was reinitiated 2 hours after undergoing sputum induction; this death was categorized as “possibly related” to the procedure.

Conclusions.

The overall frequency of SAEs was very low, and the nature of most SAEs was manageable, demonstrating a low-risk safety profile for IS collection even among severely ill children in low-income-country settings. Healthcare providers should monitor oxygen saturation and requirements during and after IS collection, and assess patients prior to reinitiating feeding after the IS procedure, to ensure patient safety.

Standardized Interpretation of Chest Radiographs in Cases of Pediatric Pneumonia From the PERCH Study

Background.

Chest radiographs (CXRs) are a valuable diagnostic tool in epidemiologic studies of pneumonia. The World Health Organization (WHO) methodology for the interpretation of pediatric CXRs has not been evaluated beyond its intended application as an endpoint measure for bacterial vaccine trials.

Methods.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study enrolled children aged 1–59 months hospitalized with WHO-defined severe and very severe pneumonia from 7 low- and middle-income countries. An interpretation process categorized each CXR into 1 of 5 conclusions: consolidation, other infiltrate, both consolidation and other infiltrate, normal, or uninterpretable. Two members of a 14-person reading panel, who had undertaken training and standardization in CXR interpretation, interpreted each CXR. Two members of an arbitration panel provided additional independent reviews of CXRs with discordant interpretations at the primary reading, blinded to previous reports. Further discordance was resolved with consensus discussion.

Results.

A total of 4172 CXRs were obtained from 4232 cases. Observed agreement for detecting consolidation (with or without other infiltrate) between primary readers was 78% (κ = 0.50) and between arbitrators was 84% (κ = 0.61); agreement for primary readers and arbitrators across 5 conclusion categories was 43.5% (κ = 0.25) and 48.5% (κ = 0.32), respectively. Disagreement was most frequent between conclusions of other infiltrate and normal for both the reading panel and the arbitration panel (32% and 30% of discordant CXRs, respectively).

Conclusions.

Agreement was similar to that of previous evaluations using the WHO methodology for detecting consolidation, but poor for other infiltrates despite attempts at a rigorous standardization process.

Density of Upper Respiratory Colonization With Streptococcus pneumoniae and Its Role in the Diagnosis of Pneumococcal Pneumonia Among Children Aged <5 Years in the PERCH Study

Background

Previous studies suggested an association between upper airway pneumococcal colonization density and pneumococcal pneumonia, but data in children are limited. Using data from the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study, we assessed this potential association.

Methods

PERCH is a case-control study in 7 countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. Cases were children aged 1–59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia. Controls were randomly selected from the community. Microbiologically confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia (MCPP) was confirmed by detection of pneumococcus in a relevant normally sterile body fluid. Colonization density was calculated with quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal specimens.

Results

Median colonization density among 56 cases with MCPP (MCPP cases; 17.28 × 10⁶ copies/mL) exceeded that of cases without MCPP (non-MCPP cases; 0.75 × 10⁶) and controls (0.60 × 10⁶) (each P < .001). The optimal density for discriminating MCPP cases from controls using the Youden index was >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL; overall, the sensitivity was 64% and the specificity 92%, with variable performance by site. The threshold was lower (≥4.4 log₁₀ copies/mL) when MCPP cases were distinguished from controls who received antibiotics before specimen collection. Among the 4035 non-MCPP cases, 500 (12%) had pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL; above this cutoff was associated with alveolar consolidation at chest radiography, very severe pneumonia, oxygen saturation <92%, C-reactive protein ≥40 mg/L, and lack of antibiotic pretreatment (all P< .001).

Conclusions

Pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL was strongly associated with MCPP and could be used to improve estimates of pneumococcal pneumonia prevalence in childhood pneumonia studies. Our findings do not support its use for individual diagnosis in a clinical setting.

Chest Radiograph Findings in Childhood Pneumonia Cases From the Multisite PERCH Study

Background.

Chest radiographs (CXRs) are frequently used to assess pneumonia cases. Variations in CXR appearances between epidemiological settings and their correlation with clinical signs are not well documented.

Methods.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health project enrolled 4232 cases of hospitalized World Health Organization (WHO)–defined severe and very severe pneumonia from 9 sites in 7 countries (Bangladesh, the Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia). At admission, each case underwent a standardized assessment of clinical signs and pneumonia risk factors by trained health personnel, and a CXR was taken that was interpreted using the standardized WHO methodology. CXRs were categorized as abnormal (consolidation and/or other infiltrate), normal, or uninterpretable.

Results.

CXRs were interpretable in 3587 (85%) cases, of which 1935 (54%) were abnormal (site range, 35%–64%). Cases with abnormal CXRs were more likely than those with normal CXRs to have hypoxemia (45% vs 26%), crackles (69% vs 62%), tachypnea (85% vs 80%), or fever (20% vs 16%) and less likely to have wheeze (30% vs 38%; all P < .05). CXR consolidation was associated with a higher case fatality ratio at 30-day follow-up (13.5%) compared to other infiltrate (4.7%) or normal (4.9%) CXRs.

Conclusions.

Clinically diagnosed pneumonia cases with abnormal CXRs were more likely to have signs typically associated with pneumonia. However, CXR-normal cases were common, and clinical signs considered indicative of pneumonia were present in substantial proportions of these cases. CXR-consolidation cases represent a group with an increased likelihood of death at 30 days post-discharge.

Implementation and 8-year follow-up of an uninterrupted oxygen supply system in a hospital in The Gambia

SETTING: A 42-bed hospital operated by the Medical Research Council (MRC) Unit in The Gambia.

OBJECTIVE: To devise, test and evaluate a cost-efficient uninterrupted oxygen system in the MRC Hospital.

DESIGN: Oxygen cylinders were replaced with oxygen concentrators as the primary source of oxygen. An uninterruptable power supply (UPS) ensured continuity of power. Hospital staff were trained on the use of the new system. Eight years post-installation, an analysis of concentrator maintenance needs and costs was conducted and user feedback obtained to assess the success of the system.

RESULTS: The new system saved at least 51% of oxygen supply costs compared to cylinders, with savings likely to have been far greater due to cylinder leakages. Users indicated that the system is easier to use and more reliable, although technical support and staff training are still needed.

CONCLUSION: Oxygen concentrators offer long-term cost savings and an improved user experience compared to cylinders; however, some technical support and maintenance are needed to upkeep the system. A UPS dedicated to oxygen concentrators is an appropriate solution for settings where power interruptions are frequent but short in duration. This approach can be a model for health systems in settings with similar infrastructure.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.

FINDINGS

We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Listening panel agreement and characteristics of lung sounds digitally recorded from children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study

INTRODUCTION

Paediatric lung sound recordings can be systematically assessed, but methodological feasibility and validity is unknown, especially from developing countries. We examined the performance of acoustically interpreting recorded paediatric lung sounds and compared sound characteristics between cases and controls.

METHODS

Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health staff in six African and Asian sites recorded lung sounds with a digital stethoscope in cases and controls. Cases aged 1-59 months had WHO severe or very severe pneumonia; age-matched community controls did not. A listening panel assigned examination results of normal, crackle, wheeze, crackle and wheeze or uninterpretable, with adjudication of discordant interpretations. Classifications were recategorised into any crackle, any wheeze or abnormal (any crackle or wheeze) and primary listener agreement (first two listeners) was analysed among interpretable examinations using the prevalence-adjusted, bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). We examined predictors of disagreement with logistic regression and compared case and control lung sounds with descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

Primary listeners considered 89.5% of 792 case and 92.4% of 301 control recordings interpretable. Among interpretable recordings, listeners agreed on the presence or absence of any abnormality in 74.9% (PABAK 0.50) of cases and 69.8% (PABAK 0.40) of controls, presence/absence of crackles in 70.6% (PABAK 0.41) of cases and 82.4% (PABAK 0.65) of controls and presence/absence of wheeze in 72.6% (PABAK 0.45) of cases and 73.8% (PABAK 0.48) of controls. Controls, tachypnoea, >3 uninterpretable chest positions, crying, upper airway noises and study site predicted listener disagreement. Among all interpretable examinations, 38.0% of cases and 84.9% of controls were normal (p<0.0001); wheezing was the most common sound (49.9%) in cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Listening panel and case-control data suggests our methodology is feasible, likely valid and that small airway inflammation is common in WHO pneumonia. Digital auscultation may be an important future pneumonia diagnostic in developing countries.

Childhood pneumonia and crowding, bed-sharing and nutrition: a case-control study from The Gambia

SETTING

Greater Banjul and Upper River Regions, The Gambia.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate tractable social, environmental and nutritional risk factors for childhood pneumonia.

DESIGN

A case-control study examining the association of crowding, household air pollution (HAP) and nutritional factors with pneumonia was undertaken in children aged 2-59 months: 458 children with severe pneumonia, defined according to the modified WHO criteria, were compared with 322 children with non-severe pneumonia, and these groups were compared to 801 neighbourhood controls. Controls were matched by age, sex, area and season.

RESULTS

Strong evidence was found of an association between bed-sharing with someone with a cough and severe pneumonia (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.1, 95%CI 3.2-8.2, P < 0.001) and non-severe pneumonia (aOR 7.3, 95%CI 4.1-13.1, P < 0.001), with 18% of severe cases estimated to be attributable to this risk factor. Malnutrition and pneumonia had clear evidence of association, which was strongest between severe malnutrition and severe pneumonia (aOR 8.7, 95%CI 4.2-17.8, P < 0.001). No association was found between pneumonia and individual carbon monoxide exposure as a measure of HAP.

CONCLUSION

Bed-sharing with someone with a cough is an important risk factor for severe pneumonia, and potentially tractable to intervention, while malnutrition remains an important tractable determinant.

Is the absolute requirement for informed consent before HIV testing a barrier to public health? A case report and management challenges

Clinicians in sub-Saharan Africa are faced with a major challenge of parental refusal to test their children for HIV. We present a case of a nine-month-old child with a clinical presentation suggestive of HIV infection whose mother persistently declined HIV testing of the child or herself. The case illustrates the difficulties faced by the clinicians caring for the child in an isolated location in West Africa. While not eliminating these difficulties, an opt-out approach to paediatric HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa may increase the proportion of children who access treatment when they need it, particularly when this is backed by the development of more effective national and regional clinical and legislative frameworks for HIV testing in children.

Etiology of severe childhood pneumonia in the Gambia, West Africa, determined by conventional and molecular microbiological analyses of lung and pleural aspirate samples

Molecular analyses of lung aspirates from Gambian children with severe pneumonia detected pathogens more frequently than did culture and showed a predominance of bacteria, principally Streptococcuspneumoniae, >75% being of serotypes covered by current pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Multiple pathogens were detected frequently, notably Haemophilus influenzae (mostly nontypeable) together with S. pneumoniae.

The effectiveness of conjugate Haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine in The Gambia 14 years after introduction

BACKGROUND

The Gambia was the first country in Africa to introduce conjugate Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, which, as in other developing countries but unlike industrialized countries, is delivered as a 3-dose primary series with no booster. This study assessed its effectiveness 14 years after introduction.

METHODS

Using methods standardized during >20 years in the study site, clinical and microbiological surveillance for invasive Hib disease (primarily meningitis) in the Western Region of The Gambia from 2007 to 2010 was complemented with studies of Hib carriage in children aged 1 to <2 years, Hib antibody levels in children aged <5 years, and Hib vaccine coverage and timing in children aged 1 to <2 years.

RESULTS

The incidence of Hib meningitis remained low (averaging 1.3 per 100 000 children aged <5 years annually), as did the Hib oropharyngeal carriage rate (0.9%). Hib antibody levels were protective in >99% of those surveyed, albeit with lower titers in older children; and coverage of conjugate Hib vaccination was high (91% having 3 doses at 1-2 years of age) using a schedule that was delivered at median ages of 2.6 months, 4.3 months, and 6 months for the first, second, and third doses, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Conjugate Hib vaccine was delivered on time in a 3-dose primary series without booster to a high proportion of eligible children and this was associated with effective disease control up to 14 years after introduction. It is important that surveillance continues in this first African country to introduce the vaccine to determine if effective control persists or if a booster dose becomes necessary as has been the case in industrialized countries.