In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset

OBJECTIVES

We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors.

METHODS

We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32).

CONCLUSION

Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Assembling a global database of child pneumonia studies to inform WHO pneumonia management algorithm: Methodology and applications

Background

The existing World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia case management guidelines rely on clinical symptoms and signs for identifying, classifying, and treating pneumonia in children up to 5 years old. We aimed to collate an individual patient-level data set from large, high-quality pre-existing studies on pneumonia in children to identify a set of signs and symptoms with greater validity in the diagnosis, prognosis, and possible treatment of childhood pneumonia for the improvement of current pneumonia case management guidelines.

Methods

Using data from a published systematic review and expert knowledge, we identified studies meeting our eligibility criteria and invited investigators to share individual-level patient data. We collected data on demographic information, general medical history, and current illness episode, including history, clinical presentation, chest radiograph findings when available, treatment, and outcome. Data were gathered separately from hospital-based and community-based cases. We performed a narrative synthesis to describe the final data set.

Results

Forty-one separate data sets were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) database, 26 of which were hospital-based and 15 were community-based. The PREPARE database includes 285 839 children with pneumonia (244 323 in the hospital and 41 516 in the community), with detailed descriptions of clinical presentation, clinical progression, and outcome. Of 9185 pneumonia-related deaths, 6836 (74%) occurred in children <1 year of age and 1317 (14%) in children aged 1-2 years. Of the 285 839 episodes, 280 998 occurred in children 0-59 months old, of which 129 584 (46%) were 2-11 months of age and 152 730 (54%) were males.

Conclusions

This data set could identify an improved specific, sensitive set of criteria for diagnosing clinical pneumonia and help identify sick children in need of referral to a higher level of care or a change of therapy. Field studies could be designed based on insights from PREPARE analyses to validate a potential revised pneumonia algorithm. The PREPARE methodology can also act as a model for disease database assembly.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction

Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.

Methods

We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.

Results

A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).

Conclusions

The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Nasopharyngeal Viral and Bacterial Co-Detection among Children from Low- and Middle-Income Countries with and without Pneumonia

The role of microbial coinfection in the pathogenesis of pneumonia in children is not well known. The aim of this work was to describe the prevalence of microorganism co-detection in nasopharyngeal samples (NPS) of pneumonia cases and control subjects and to study the potential association between nasopharyngeal microorganism co-detection and pneumonia. A case-control study was carried out from 2010 to 2014 in nine study sites located in low- or middle-income countries. The data from 888 children under 5 years of age with pneumonia (cases) and 870 children under 5 without pneumonia (controls) were analyzed. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected; reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) enabled the detection of five bacteria and 19 viruses. Multiple, mixed-effects logistic regression modeling was undertaken to evaluate the association between microorganism co-detection and pneumonia. A single Streptococcus pneumoniae colonization was observed in 15.2% of the controls and 10.1% of the cases (P = 0.001), whereas S. pneumoniae and a single virus co-detection was observed in 33.3% of the cases and in 14.6% of the controls (P < 0.001). Co-detections with rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, and influenza virus were more frequent in the cases compared with the controls (P < 0.001) and were significantly associated with pneumonia in multiple regression analysis. The proportion of single virus detection without bacterial co-detection was not different between cases and controls (13.6% versus 11.3%, P = 0.13). This study suggests that coinfection of S. pneumoniae and certain viruses may play a role in the pathophysiology of pneumonia in children.

External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores.

METHODS

We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules.

RESULTS

The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.

Serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae in Children Aged <5 Years Hospitalized With or Without Pneumonia in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Descriptive, Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Improving knowledge regarding Streptococcus pneumoniae distribution in pneumonia cases is important to better target preventive and curative measures. The objective was to describe S. pneumoniae serotypes in children with or without pneumonia.

METHODS

It was a case-control study carried out in 8 developing and emerging countries between 2010 and 2014. Cases were children aged <5 years admitted to the hospital for pneumonia. Controls were children admitted for surgery or routine outpatient care.

RESULTS

In nasopharyngeal samples, S. pneumoniae were detected in 68.2% of the cases and 47.5% of the controls (P < .001). Nasopharyngeal carriage was associated with a higher risk of being a case in 6/8 study sites (adjusted odds ratio ranged from 0.71 [95% confidence interval [CI], .39-1.29; P = .26] in India [Pune/Vadu] to 11.86 [95% CI, 5.77-24.41; P < .001] in Mongolia). The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) serotypes were more frequently detected in cases with nasopharyngeal carriage (67.1%) than in controls with nasopharyngeal carriage (54.6%), P < .001. Streptococcus pneumoniae was detected in blood by polymerase chain reaction in 8.3% of the cases. Of 34 cases with an S. pneumoniae serotype detected in blood, 27 (79%) had the same serotype in the nasopharyngeal sample.

CONCLUSIONS

The results confirm the assumption that the isolate carrying or causing disease in an individual is of the same serotype. Most serotypes independently associated with nasopharyngeal carriage or pneumonia are covered by PCV13, suggesting that increased PCV coverage would reduce the burden of S. pneumoniae-related pneumonia.

Discrepancies between self-reported tick bites and evidence of tick-borne disease exposure among nomadic Mongolian herders

Twenty-six per cent of Mongolians live pastoral lifestyles, increasing their likelihood of exposure to ticks and placing them at a higher risk for contracting tick-borne diseases (TBDs). Anaplasma spp. and Rickettsia spp. have been identified in ticks, livestock and humans in Mongolia, but no known qualitative research has been conducted investigating the association between nomadic herder characteristics, tick bite history and exposure to TBDs. To better understand the association between self-reported tick bites and symptoms versus actual exposure to TBDs, this study paired serological data with 335 surveys administered to Mongolian herders, ages 12-69, from 2014 to 2015. Logistic regression results identified no significant associations between reported tick bites or symptoms with serological evidence of Anaplasma spp. and Rickettsia spp. controlling for age, gender and aimag. Among the 335 respondents who were seropositive to either Anaplasma spp. or Rickettsia spp., 32.9% self-reported experiencing abnormal symptoms such as redness, inflammation, headache, arthritis or fever after being bitten. Alternatively, 17.3% (58/335) of individuals reported experiencing symptoms following a tick bite in instances where serological results indicated no exposure to Anaplasma spp. or Rickettsia spp. Results also identified inconsistencies in reporting and seroprevalence among different age groups, with children having the highest reporting and treatment seeking rates but low levels of exposure in comparison with other groups. While survey results showed that individuals were aware of peak tick seasons and tick species that inhabit specific areas, 58% of heads of households (49/84) were unaware that ticks can cause disease in livestock or dogs. This study suggests that herders are an at-risk population in Mongolia with gaps in awareness of TBD risk. Increased surveillance paired with focused outreach to prevent TBDs targeted to the herder population is encouraged.

Microorganisms Associated With Pneumonia in Children <5 Years of Age in Developing and Emerging Countries: The GABRIEL Pneumonia Multicenter, Prospective, Case-Control Study

Background

Pneumonia, the leading infectious cause of child mortality globally, mainly afflicts developing countries. This prospective observational study aimed to assess the microorganisms associated with pneumonia in children aged <5 years in developing and emerging countries.

Methods

A multicenter, case-control study by the GABRIEL (Global Approach to Biological Research, Infectious diseases and Epidemics in Low-income countries) network was conducted between 2010 and 2014 in Cambodia, China, Haiti, India (2 sites), Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, and Paraguay. Cases were hospitalized children with radiologically confirmed pneumonia; controls were children from the same setting without any features suggestive of pneumonia. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from all subjects; 19 viruses and 5 bacteria were identified by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Associations between microorganisms and pneumonia were quantified by calculating the adjusted population attributable fraction (aPAF) after multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, time period, other pathogens, and site.

Results

Overall, 888 cases and 870 controls were analyzed; ≥1 microorganism was detected in respiratory samples in 93.0% of cases and 74.4% of controls (P < .001). Streptococcus pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus 1, 3, and 4, and influenza virus A and B were independently associated with pneumonia; aPAF was 42.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.5%-48.2%) for S. pneumoniae, 18.2% (95% CI, 17.4%-19.0%) for RSV, and 11.2% (95% CI, 7.5%-14.7%) for rhinovirus.

Conclusions

Streptococcus pneumoniae, RSV, and rhinovirus may be the major microorganisms associated with pneumonia infections in children <5 years of age from developing and emerging countries. Increasing S. pneumoniae vaccination coverage may substantially reduce the burden of pneumonia among children in developing countries.

Burden of Influenza in Less Than 5-Year-Old Children Admitted to Hospital with Pneumonia in Developing and Emerging Countries: A Descriptive, Multicenter Study

This descriptive 4-year study reports the proportion of detection of influenza viruses in less than 5-year-old children hospitalized for pneumonia in eight developing and emerging countries and describes clinical and microbiological characteristics of influenza-related pneumonia cases. Hospitalized children presenting radiologically confirmed pneumonia aged 2-60 months were prospectively enrolled in this observational standardized study. Mean proportion of isolated influenza virus was 9.7% (95% confidence interval: 7.9-11.8%) among 888 pneumonia children analyzed, with moderate heterogeneity between countries-ranging from 6.2% in Cambodia to 18.8% in Haiti. The clinical characteristics of children with influenza-related pneumonia were not substantially different from those of other pneumonia cases. Influenza A H1N1-related pneumonia cases appeared as more severe than pneumonia cases related to other strains of influenza. Streptococcus pneumoniae was detected more often in blood samples from influenza-related cases than in those without detected influenza viruses (19.7% versus 9.5%, P = 0.018). Influenza-related pneumonia is frequent among children less than 5 years old with pneumonia, living in developing and emerging countries. Influenza might be a frequent etiologic agent responsible for pneumonia or a predisposing status factor for pneumococcal-related pneumonia in this population.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.

FINDINGS

We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Screening and management of viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma in Mongolia: results from a survey of Mongolian physicians from all major provinces of Mongolia

Background

According to Globocan, Mongolia has the highest worldwide hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence (78.1/100 000, 3.5× higher than China).

Aims and methods

We conducted an anonymous survey of physicians from major provinces who attended an educational liver symposium, analysing their demography, practice, knowledge, perceptions and proposed solutions. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate OR relating demography and practice factors with higher provider knowledge and improvement.

Results

Of the 121 attendees, 44–95 (36–79%) responded to each question. Most were female (87%), young (79% age <50), subspecialists (81%), university-affiliated (74%), and practised in urban areas (61%). The mean pretest and post-test scores per physician were 60.4±20.4 and 65.6±21.3, with no observed significant predictors for baseline knowledge or improvement. Most (>80%) noted that <50% of patients who need hepatitis or HCC screening receive it. The main perceived barriers to screening were inability to pay for tests, lack of guidelines and poor patient awareness. Hepatitis treatment rates were low; 83% treated hepatitis C virus in <10 patients in the past year, and 86% treated hepatitis B virus in <10 patients/month. Treatment barriers were multifactorial, with cost as a principal barrier. Proposed solutions were universal screening policies (46%), removal of financial barriers (28%) and provider education (20%).

Conclusions

Physicians from major regions of Mongolia noted low screening for viral hepatitis, even lower treatment rates, financial barriers and the need for increased educational efforts. We advocate broad-based medical education tailored to local needs and based on needs assessment and outcome measurements.

Global Role and Burden of Influenza in Pediatric Respiratory Hospitalizations, 1982-2012: A Systematic Analysis

BACKGROUND

The global burden of pediatric severe respiratory illness is substantial, and influenza viruses contribute to this burden. Systematic surveillance and testing for influenza among hospitalized children has expanded globally over the past decade. However, only a fraction of the data has been used to estimate influenza burden. In this analysis, we use surveillance data to provide an estimate of influenza-associated hospitalizations among children worldwide.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We aggregated data from a systematic review (n = 108) and surveillance platforms (n = 37) to calculate a pooled estimate of the proportion of samples collected from children hospitalized with respiratory illnesses and positive for influenza by age group (<6 mo, <1 y, <2 y, <5 y, 5-17 y, and <18 y). We applied this proportion to global estimates of acute lower respiratory infection hospitalizations among children aged <1 y and <5 y, to obtain the number and per capita rate of influenza-associated hospitalizations by geographic region and socio-economic status. Influenza was associated with 10% (95% CI 8%-11%) of respiratory hospitalizations in children <18 y worldwide, ranging from 5% (95% CI 3%-7%) among children <6 mo to 16% (95% CI 14%-20%) among children 5-17 y. On average, we estimated that influenza results in approximately 374,000 (95% CI 264,000 to 539,000) hospitalizations in children <1 y-of which 228,000 (95% CI 150,000 to 344,000) occur in children <6 mo-and 870,000 (95% CI 610,000 to 1,237,000) hospitalizations in children <5 y annually. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates were more than three times higher in developing countries than in industrialized countries (150/100,000 children/year versus 48/100,000). However, differences in hospitalization practices between settings are an important limitation in interpreting these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza is an important contributor to respiratory hospitalizations among young children worldwide. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage among young children and pregnant women could reduce this burden and protect infants <6 mo.

Burden of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Pregnant Women and Infants Under 6 Months in Mongolia: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Pregnant women and infants under 6 months are at risk of influenza-related complications. Limited information exists on their community burden of respiratory viruses.

Methods and Findings

This prospective, observational open cohort study was conducted in Baganuur district, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia during 2013/14 and 2014/15 influenza seasons. Influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (sARI) were identified by follow-up calls twice a week. For those identified, influenza and respiratory syncytical virus (RSV) were tested by point-of-care test kits. We calculated overall and stratified (by trimester or age group) incidence rates (IR) and used Cox proportional hazard regression for risk factor analyses. Among 1260 unvaccinated pregnant women enrolled, overall IRs for ILI, sARI and influenza A were 11.8 (95% confidence interval (C.I):11.2–12.4), 0.1 (95%C.I:0.0–0.4), and 1.7 (95%C.I:1.5–1.9) per 1,000person-days, respectively. One sARI case was influenza A positive. IRs and adjusted hazard ratios (Adj.HR) for ILI and influenza A were lowest in the third trimester. Those with co-morbidity were 1.4 times more likely to develop ILI [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1–1.9)]. Among 1304 infants enrolled, overall ILI and sARI IRs were 15.2 (95%C.I:14.5–15.8) and 20.5 (95%C.I:19.7–21.3) per 1,000person-days, respectively. From the tested ILI (77.6%) and sARI (30.6%) cases, the overall positivity rates were 6.3% (influenza A), 1.1% (influenza B) and 9.3% (RSV). Positivity rates of influenza A and RSV tend to increase with age. sARI cases were 1.4 times more likely to be male [Adj.HR:1.4 (95%C.I:1.1–1.8)]. Among all influenza A and RSV positive infants, 11.8% and 68.0% were respectively identified among sARI hospitalized cases.

Conclusion

We observed low overall influenza A burden in both groups, though underestimation was likely due to point-of-care tests used. For infants, RSV burden was more significant than influenza A. These findings would be useful for establishing control strategies for both viruses in Mongolia.

Impact of neuraminidase inhibitors on influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-related pneumonia: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background

The impact of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) on influenza‐related pneumonia (IRP) is not established. Our objective was to investigate the association between NAI treatment and IRP incidence and outcomes in patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection.

Methods

A worldwide meta‐analysis of individual participant data from 20 634 hospitalised patients with laboratory‐confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 20 021) or clinically diagnosed (n = 613) ‘pandemic influenza’. The primary outcome was radiologically confirmed IRP. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated using generalised linear mixed modelling, adjusting for NAI treatment propensity, antibiotics and corticosteroids.

Results

Of 20 634 included participants, 5978 (29·0%) had IRP; conversely, 3349 (16·2%) had confirmed the absence of radiographic pneumonia (the comparator). Early NAI treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) versus no NAI was not significantly associated with IRP [adj. OR 0·83 (95% CI 0·64–1·06; P = 0·136)]. Among the 5978 patients with IRP, early NAI treatment versus none did not impact on mortality [adj. OR = 0·72 (0·44–1·17; P = 0·180)] or likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 1·17 (0·71–1·92; P = 0·537)], but early treatment versus later significantly reduced mortality [adj. OR = 0·70 (0·55–0·88; P = 0·003)] and likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 0·68 (0·54–0·85; P = 0·001)].

Conclusions

Early NAI treatment of patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection versus no treatment did not reduce the likelihood of IRP. However, in patients who developed IRP, early NAI treatment versus later reduced the likelihood of mortality and needing ventilatory support.

The genetic legacy of the expansion of Turkic-speaking nomads across Eurasia

The Turkic peoples represent a diverse collection of ethnic groups defined by the Turkic languages. These groups have dispersed across a vast area, including Siberia, Northwest China, Central Asia, East Europe, the Caucasus, Anatolia, the Middle East, and Afghanistan. The origin and early dispersal history of the Turkic peoples is disputed, with candidates for their ancient homeland ranging from the Transcaspian steppe to Manchuria in Northeast Asia. Previous genetic studies have not identified a clear-cut unifying genetic signal for the Turkic peoples, which lends support for language replacement rather than demic diffusion as the model for the Turkic language’s expansion. We addressed the genetic origin of 373 individuals from 22 Turkic-speaking populations, representing their current geographic range, by analyzing genome-wide high-density genotype data. In agreement with the elite dominance model of language expansion most of the Turkic peoples studied genetically resemble their geographic neighbors. However, western Turkic peoples sampled across West Eurasia shared an excess of long chromosomal tracts that are identical by descent (IBD) with populations from present-day South Siberia and Mongolia (SSM), an area where historians center a series of early Turkic and non-Turkic steppe polities. While SSM matching IBD tracts (> 1cM) are also observed in non-Turkic populations, Turkic peoples demonstrate a higher percentage of such tracts (p-values ≤ 0.01) compared to their non-Turkic neighbors. Finally, we used the ALDER method and inferred admixture dates (~9th–17th centuries) that overlap with the Turkic migrations of the 5th–16th centuries. Thus, our results indicate historical admixture among Turkic peoples, and the recent shared ancestry with modern populations in SSM supports one of the hypothesized homelands for their nomadic Turkic and related Mongolic ancestors.

Centuries of nomadic migrations have ultimately resulted in the distribution of Turkic languages over a large area ranging from Siberia, across Central Asia to Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Despite the profound cultural impact left by these nomadic peoples, little is known about their prehistoric origins. Moreover, because contemporary Turkic speakers tend to genetically resemble their geographic neighbors, it is not clear whether their nomadic ancestors left an identifiable genetic trace. In this study, we show that Turkic-speaking peoples sampled across the Middle East, Caucasus, East Europe, and Central Asia share varying proportions of Asian ancestry that originate in a single area, southern Siberia and Mongolia. Mongolic- and Turkic-speaking populations from this area bear an unusually high number of long chromosomal tracts that are identical by descent with Turkic peoples from across west Eurasia. Admixture induced linkage disequilibrium decay across chromosomes in these populations indicates that admixture occurred during the 9th–17th centuries, in agreement with the historically recorded Turkic nomadic migrations and later Mongol expansion. Thus, our findings reveal genetic traces of recent large-scale nomadic migrations and map their source to a previously hypothesized area of Mongolia and southern Siberia.

Deep phylogenetic analysis of haplogroup G1 provides estimates of SNP and STR mutation rates on the human Y-chromosome and reveals migrations of Iranic speakers

Y-chromosomal haplogroup G1 is a minor component of the overall gene pool of South-West and Central Asia but reaches up to 80% frequency in some populations scattered within this area. We have genotyped the G1-defining marker M285 in 27 Eurasian populations (n= 5,346), analyzed 367 M285-positive samples using 17 Y-STRs, and sequenced ~11 Mb of the Y-chromosome in 20 of these samples to an average coverage of 67X. This allowed detailed phylogenetic reconstruction. We identified five branches, all with high geographical specificity: G1-L1323 in Kazakhs, the closely related G1-GG1 in Mongols, G1-GG265 in Armenians and its distant brother clade G1-GG162 in Bashkirs, and G1-GG362 in West Indians. The haplotype diversity, which decreased from West Iran to Central Asia, allows us to hypothesize that this rare haplogroup could have been carried by the expansion of Iranic speakers northwards to the Eurasian steppe and via founder effects became a predominant genetic component of some populations, including the Argyn tribe of the Kazakhs. The remarkable agreement between genetic and genealogical trees of Argyns allowed us to calibrate the molecular clock using a historical date (1405 AD) of the most recent common genealogical ancestor. The mutation rate for Y-chromosomal sequence data obtained was 0.78×10^-9 per bp per year, falling within the range of published rates. The mutation rate for Y-chromosomal STRs was 0.0022 per locus per generation, very close to the so-called genealogical rate. The “clan-based” approach to estimating the mutation rate provides a third, middle way between direct farther-to-son comparisons and using archeologically known migrations, whose dates are subject to revision and of uncertain relationship to genetic events.

A recent bottleneck of Y chromosome diversity coincides with a global change in culture

It is commonly thought that human genetic diversity in non-African populations was shaped primarily by an out-of-Africa dispersal 50–100 thousand yr ago (kya). Here, we present a study of 456 geographically diverse high-coverage Y chromosome sequences, including 299 newly reported samples. Applying ancient DNA calibration, we date the Y-chromosomal most recent common ancestor (MRCA) in Africa at 254 (95% CI 192–307) kya and detect a cluster of major non-African founder haplogroups in a narrow time interval at 47–52 kya, consistent with a rapid initial colonization model of Eurasia and Oceania after the out-of-Africa bottleneck. In contrast to demographic reconstructions based on mtDNA, we infer a second strong bottleneck in Y-chromosome lineages dating to the last 10 ky. We hypothesize that this bottleneck is caused by cultural changes affecting variance of reproductive success among males.

Molecular Epidemiology of the Human Rhinovirus Infection in Mongolia during 2008-2013

Rhinovirus infections are common in all age groups world-wide, and they occur throughout the year. In this study, we examined 2,689 nasopharyngeal swabs collected in Mongolia during 2008-2013. Human rhinoviruses (HRVs) were detected in 295 (11.0%) samples, and 85 (28.8%) patients were co-infected with other respiratory viruses. HRV was co-detected with bocavirus, human coronavirus, and respiratory syncytial virus in 21 (24.7%), 17 (20.0%), and 14 (16.5%), respectively. We tested 170 (57.6%) of the 295 HRV-positive samples: 117 HRV strains were typed by using the VP4/VP2 method and 53 by using 5' UTR method. We found HVR-A, HVR-C, and HVR-B infections in 80 (47.1%), 76 (44.7%), and 14 (8.2%) samples, respectively.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection disease burden - volume 2

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 2

Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in select countries - volume 2

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

Multicenter case-control study protocol of pneumonia etiology in children: Global Approach to Biological Research, Infectious diseases and Epidemics in Low-income countries (GABRIEL network)

BACKGROUND

Data on the etiologies of pneumonia among children are inadequate, especially in developing countries. The principal objective is to undertake a multicenter incident case-control study of <5-year-old children hospitalized with pneumonia in developing and emerging countries, aiming to identify the causative agents involved in pneumonia while assessing individual and microbial factors associated with the risk of severe pneumonia.

METHODS/DESIGN

A multicenter case-control study, based on the GABRIEL network, is ongoing. Ten study sites are located in 9 countries over 3 continents: Brazil, Cambodia, China, Haiti, India, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, and Paraguay. At least 1,000 incident cases and 1,000 controls will be enrolled and matched for age and date. Cases are hospitalized children <5 years with radiologically confirmed pneumonia, and the controls are children without any features suggestive of pneumonia. Respiratory specimens are collected from all enrolled subjects to identify 19 viruses and 5 bacteria. Whole blood from pneumonia cases is being tested for 3 major bacteria. S. pneumoniae-positive specimens are serotyped. Urine samples from cases only are tested for detection of antimicrobial activity. The association between procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and pathogens is being evaluated. A discovery platform will enable pathogen identification in undiagnosed samples.

DISCUSSION

This multicenter study will provide descriptive results for better understanding of pathogens responsible for pneumonia among children in developing countries. The identification of determinants related to microorganisms associated with pneumonia and its severity should facilitate treatment and prevention.

Epidemiology and impact of influenza in Mongolia, 2007-2012

Background

Mongolia's Health Service began to conduct surveillance for influenza in the 1970s. This surveillance has become more comprehensive over time and now includes 155 sentinel sites in Mongolia. In this study, we analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and impact of influenza using data from influenza surveillance in Mongolia.

Materials and methods

The data were collected by the National Influenza Center, Mongolia (NIC). Incidence rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infections (sARI) were calculated as the proportion of the number of ILI and sARI cases to the total population in the studied areas. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected and tested using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction [(rt)-RT-PCR]. Selected samples negative for influenza were tested for other respiratory pathogens by multiplex rt-RT-PCR.

Results

Averages of 14·0 ILI and 0·8 sARI episodes per 100 population per year were observed during the five influenza seasons. The highest incidences of influenza associated with ILI and sARI were observed among children 0–4 years old. The number of ILI cases showed a clear seasonality, generally peaking between December and February. In contrast, sARI incidence peaked twice during each season. Influenza B was most prevalent during 2007–2008 and 2011–2012, influenza A (H3N2) during 2010–2011, seasonal A (H1N1) during 2008–2009, and A (H1N1) pdm09 during 2009–2010.

Conclusions

Additional data on the epidemiology and impact of influenza including socioeconomic impact and vaccine effectiveness are required to develop a national influenza control policy, including a vaccination strategy. Our results provide useful data for developing such a policy.

Detection and serotyping of human adenoviruses from patients with influenza-like illness in mongolia

Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) are responsible for approximately 5%-10% of acute respiratory infections. The serotypes of commonly detected respiratory HAdV in Asian countries are diverse. However, there are no well-documented reports of circulating HAdV serotypes in Mongolia. Between January 2010 and May 2011, 1,950 influenza-negative samples from patients with influenza-like illness, including eye swabs from patients with eye symptoms, were screened for HAdV, and 40 samples (2.1%) were positive for HAdVs. Among these 40 samples, 31 samples were positive for the hexon gene used in phylogenetic analysis, as determined by PCR. We identified 7 different serotypes. We constructed the phylogenetic trees of HAdV-B7 and HAdV-B3, the 2 most commonly detected serotypes in this study. All detected HAdV-B7 and -B3 Mongolian strains had identical sequences. HAdV-D8, known to be associated with epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC), was detected from nasopharyngeal and eye swabs. There was no difference between the amino acid sequences of the hexon and fiber genes that may affect tissue tropism in Mongolian strains and those in EKC-causing strains.

Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza virus transmission in Mongolia

OBJECTIVE

To assess the likely benefit of the interventions under consideration for use in Mongolia during future influenza pandemics.

METHODS

A stochastic, compartmental patch model of susceptibility, exposure, infection and recovery was constructed to capture the key effects of several interventions--travel restrictions, school closure, generalized social distancing, quarantining of close contacts, treatment of cases with antivirals and prophylaxis of contacts--on the dynamics of influenza epidemics. The likely benefit and optimal timing and duration of each of these interventions were assessed using Latin-hypercube sampling techniques, averaging across many possible transmission and social mixing parameters.

FINDINGS

Timely interventions could substantially alter the time-course and reduce the severity of pandemic influenza in Mongolia. In a moderate pandemic scenario, early social distancing measures decreased the mean attack rate from around 10% to 7-8%. Similarly, in a severe pandemic scenario such measures cut the mean attack rate from approximately 23% to 21%. In both moderate and severe pandemic scenarios, a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions proved as effective as the targeted use of antivirals. Targeted antiviral campaigns generally appeared more effective in severe pandemic scenarios than in moderate pandemic scenarios.

CONCLUSION

A mathematical model of pandemic influenza transmission in Mongolia indicated that, to be successful, interventions to prevent transmission must be triggered when the first cases are detected in border regions. If social distancing measures are introduced at this stage and implemented over several weeks, they may have a notable mitigating impact. In low-income regions such as Mongolia, social distancing may be more effective than the large-scale use of antivirals.

Influenza transmission in a community during a seasonal influenza A(H3N2) outbreak (2010-2011) in Mongolia: a community-based prospective cohort study

Background

Knowledge of how influenza viruses spread in a community is important for planning and implementation of effective interventions, including social distancing measures. Households and schools are implicated as the major sites for influenza virus transmission. However, the overall picture of community transmission is not well defined during actual outbreaks. We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study to describe the transmission characteristics of influenza in Mongolia.

Methods and Findings

A total of 5,655 residents in 1,343 households were included in this cohort study. An active search for cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) was performed between October 2010 and April 2011. Data collected during a community outbreak of influenza A(H3N2) were analyzed. Total 282 ILI cases occurred during this period, and 73% of the subjects were aged <15 years. The highest attack rate (20.4%) was in those aged 1–4 years, whereas the attack rate in those aged 5–9 years was 10.8%. Fifty-one secondary cases occurred among 900 household contacts from 43 households (43 index cases), giving an overall crude household secondary attack rate (SAR) of 5.7%. SAR was significantly higher in younger household contacts (relative risk for those aged <1 year: 9.90, 1–4 years: 5.59, and 5–9 years: 6.43). We analyzed the transmission patterns among households and a community and repeated transmissions were detected between households, preschools, and schools. Children aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission in households and in the community at large. Working-age adults were also a source of influenza in households, whereas elderly cases (aged ≥65 years) had no link with household transmission.

Conclusions

Repeated transmissions between households, preschools, and schools were observed during an influenza A(H3N2) outbreak period in Mongolia, where subjects aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission.

Cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 by a community-based serological cohort study in Selenghe Province, Mongolia

BACKGROUND

Large community outbreaks of pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 occurred between October and December 2009 in Mongolia. A serological study was conducted among the general population by testing paired sera collected before and after the first wave of pandemic in Selenghe province, Mongolia. None of the study participants had been vaccinated for pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 before the second samples were collected.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate cumulative incidence of pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 in different age-groups of Selenghe province residents.

METHODS

After informed consent was obtained from apparently healthy volunteers, the paired sera and background information were collected. Antibody titers were measured using hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (MN) assays for A/California/07/2009pdm. A fourfold rise in antibody titers was regarded as the evidence of infection.

RESULTS

The overall cumulative incidences in the study group for all ages were 28.8% (76/264) by HI, 35.2% (93/264) by MN, and 25.0% (66/264) by both HI and MN. Cumulative incidences of infection varied among age-groups, with children aged 2-4 and 5-9 years having high cumulative incidence of infection. Overall cumulative incidences of infection in the whole population were estimated to be 23.0% (4946/21460) by HI, 30.2% (6473/21460) by MN, and 18.8% (4036/21460) by both HI and MN.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that about one-fourth of the total population in Selenghe province was infected with pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 virus during the first wave of the pandemic.

Comparison of the incidence of influenza in relation to climate factors during 2000-2007 in five countries

Relatively few international comparisons of the incidence of influenza related to climate parameters have been performed, particularly in the Eastern hemisphere. In this study, the incidence of influenza and climate data such as temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, from cities at different latitudes with contrasting climates: Singapore, Hong Kong (China), Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia), Vancouver (Canada), and three Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney) were examined to determine whether there was any overall relationship between the incidence of influenza and climate. Applying time-series analyses to the more comprehensive datasets, it was found that relative humidity was associated with the incidence of influenza A in Singapore, Hong Kong, Brisbane, and Vancouver. In the case of influenza B, the mean temperature was the key climate variable associated with the incidence of influenza in Hong Kong, Brisbane, Melbourne, and Vancouver. Rainfall was not significantly correlated with the incidence of influenza A or B in any of these cities.

[The population structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Mongolia as assessed using large sequence polymorphism analysis]

112 strains of M. tuberculosis isolated from lung tuberculosis patients in Mongolia were genotyped using RD9, RD7, TbD1, RD105, and RD750 loci. The genotypes of all the strains studied were characterized using the conservation of RD7, RD9, and RD750 loci and the presence of the deletion in the locus TbD1. RD105 was detected in 65 isolates (58%). The isolate was classified into two groups--East-Asian and Euro-American.

Comparison of the incidence of influenza in relation to climate factors during 2000-2007 in five countries

Relatively few international comparisons of the incidence of influenza related to climate parameters have been performed, particularly in the Eastern hemisphere. In this study, the incidence of influenza and climate data such as temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, from cities at different latitudes with contrasting climates: Singapore, Hong Kong (China), Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia), Vancouver (Canada), and three Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney) were examined to determine whether there was any overall relationship between the incidence of influenza and climate. Applying time-series analyses to the more comprehensive datasets, it was found that relative humidity was associated with the incidence of influenza A in Singapore, Hong Kong, Brisbane, and Vancouver. In the case of influenza B, the mean temperature was the key climate variable associated with the incidence of influenza in Hong Kong, Brisbane, Melbourne, and Vancouver. Rainfall was not significantly correlated with the incidence of influenza A or B in any of these cities.

Seasonality of tuberculosis in an Eastern-Asian country with an extreme continental climate

Aggregate monthly notifications of incident sputum smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) in Mongolia, stratified by sex and age groups, were analysed separately for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, and the rest of the country for the 9-yr period from 1998 to 2006. TB notifications were compared with ambient surface temperature. More than twice as many TB cases were notified in the peak month (April) compared with the trough months (October-December), paralleling the temperature curve. The fluctuations recurred consistently over the entire observation period, were identical in the capital compared with the rest of the country, and were independent of age and sex. TB notifications parallel the temperature amplitudes and have a magnitude not reported elsewhere. We hypothesise that the influence of temperature on life either indoors or outdoors is consistent with the transmission probability of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the subsequent delay to disease recognition and notification with the incubation period, possibly co-determined by other factors, rather than accessibility to services.

A low rate of hepatitis B virus vaccine breakthrough infections in Mongolia

A nation-wide hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunization program of all newborn babies was launched in Mongolia in 1991. However, the continuation of clinical icteric viral hepatitis infections in children led to the investigation to determine whether HBV breakthrough infections were occurring and if any were due to hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) mutants. Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infections accounted for most of these cases with 3% of the jaundiced children shown to have acute hepatitis B. Hepatitis B vaccine protection was 93% against HBV infection and 97% against HBV carriage. A G145A "escape mutant" was found in one HBV carrier child only. Anti-HBs levels, however, were low with 85% having titers less than 100 IU/L, 46% of whom had levels less than 10 IU/L. The results from this study demonstrate that the HBV immunization program in Mongolia provides an effective level of protection. However, continued surveillance of breakthrough infections and close monitoring of "vaccine escape" mutants is required.

Y-chromosome evidence for differing ancient demographic histories in the Americas

To scrutinize the male ancestry of extant Native American populations, we examined eight biallelic and six microsatellite polymorphisms from the nonrecombining portion of the Y chromosome, in 438 individuals from 24 Native American populations (1 Na Dené and 23 South Amerinds) and in 404 Mongolians. One of the biallelic markers typed is a recently identified mutation (M242) characterizing a novel founder Native American haplogroup. The distribution, relatedness, and diversity of Y lineages in Native Americans indicate a differentiated male ancestry for populations from North and South America, strongly supporting a diverse demographic history for populations from these areas. These data are consistent with the occurrence of two major male migrations from southern/central Siberia to the Americas (with the second migration being restricted to North America) and a shared ancestry in central Asia for some of the initial migrants to Europe and the Americas. The microsatellite diversity and distribution of a Y lineage specific to South America (Q-M19) indicates that certain Amerind populations have been isolated since the initial colonization of the region, suggesting an early onset for tribalization of Native Americans. Age estimates based on Y-chromosome microsatellite diversity place the initial settlement of the American continent at approximately 14,000 years ago, in relative agreement with the age of well-established archaeological evidence.

Rare Deep-Rooting Y Chromosome Lineages in Humans: Lessons for Phylogeography

There has been considerable debate on the geographic origin of the human Y chromosome Alu polymorphism (YAP). Here we report a new, very rare deep-rooting haplogroup within the YAP clade, together with data on other deep-rooting YAP clades. The new haplogroup, found so far in only five Nigerians, is the least-derived YAP haplogroup according to currently known binary markers. However, because the interior branching order of the Y chromosome genealogical tree remains unknown, it is impossible to impute the origin of the YAP clade with certainty. We discuss the problems presented by rare deep-rooting lineages for Y chromosome phylogeography.

Reproductive health in Mongolia: results from three provinces and one urban district

The purpose of this study was to obtain data for facilitating the planning, monitoring and evaluation of reproductive health services in Mongolia. The survey was carried out in 17 randomly selected health facilities where health professionals were graded on their reproductive health knowledge and also in 64 adjacent households where 162 women of childbearing age were interviewed for their comments on reproductive health services and to obtain their reproductive health knowledge/behaviour. We rated the reproductive healthcare delivery system, using the methodology of Kielmann et al. The results from the women's interviews are encouraging and show a high acceptance of and satisfaction with family planning services.

Comparison of hepatitis B vaccine coverage and effectiveness among urban and rural Mongolian 2-year-olds

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) carriage in Mongolia is reported to be 14%. Universal HBV immunization of newborns has been shown to decrease carriage in Asian populations. Mongolia began universal newborn vaccination in 1991. This evaluation of vaccine coverage and effectiveness compares the success of the program between urban and nomadic rural populations.

METHODS

Using random cluster sampling, 148 Mongolian 2-year-olds from seminomadic rural families were compared with 127 2-year-olds from Ulaanbaatar, the capital city.

RESULTS

More than 95% of all subjects received hepatitis B vaccine although rural subjects were less likely to complete the series than were urban subjects. Adequate vaccine response differed significantly: 94.2% of urban subjects versus only 70.2% of rural subjects had protective anti-HBs levels (P < 0.001). Overall the proportion of hepatitis B infection in both samples was lower than the historical Mongolian prevalence. However, unexpectedly 40% of subjects in rural Bayanhongor Aimag (Province) were found to be HBsAg positive.

CONCLUSION

The Mongolian infant vaccination program for hepatitis B is successfully reducing the rate of chronic carriage in the immunized generation. However, vaccine response among rural subjects is less than that among urban. There appears to be a pocket of high disease prevalence in Bayanhongor that requires further study.

Previous H1N1 influenza A viruses circulating in the Mongolian population

Four influenza A viruses of the subtype H1N1, isolated from Mongolian patients in Ulaanbaatar between 1985 and 1991, were analysed by sequencing of various RNA segments. The isolate from 1985 was found to be highly related in all genes sequenced to strains isolated from camels in the same region and at about the same time. These camel isolates were presumably derived from a UV-light inactivated reassortant vaccine (PR8 x USSR/77) prepared in Leningrad in 1978 and used in the Mongolian population at that time [19]. The human isolate from 1988 was also found to be a derivative of a reassortant between PR8 and USSR/77; in contrast to the 1985 isolate, however, it contained an HA closely related to PR8. One of the Mongolian isolates from 1991 (111/91) was in all genes sequenced closely related to PR8, while the other isolate from 1991 (162/91) was closely related to H1N1 strains isolated around 1986 in other parts of the world. About 12% of 235 convalescent sera collected in various parts of Mongolia contained antibodies against PR8, while none of German control sera contained such antibodies. The mutational and evolutionary rates of the Mongolian strains seem to be significantly lower when compared to the rates of human influenza A strains isolated in other parts of the world. This might indicate that these rates depend to a certain extent on the population density. Thus, viruses from remote areas might keep the potential to reappear in the human population after several years to cause a pandemic as it had happened in 1977.

Predominance of a single genotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in countries of east Asia

Analysis of the population structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains from the People's Republic of China showed that the vast majority belong to a genetically closely related group. These strains shared the majority of their IS6110 DNA-containing restriction fragments, and also, the DNA polymorphism associated with other repetitive DNA elements, like the polymorphic GC-rich sequence and the direct repeat, was very limited. Because the majority of these strains originated from the province of Beijing, we designated this grouping the "Beijing family" of M. tuberculosis strains. Strains of this family were also found to dominate in neighboring countries such as Mongolia, South Korea, and Thailand, whereas a low prevalence of such strains was observed in countries on other continents. These data indicate that strains of the Beijing family recently expanded from a single ancestor which had a selective advantage. It is speculated that long-term Mycobacterium bovis BCG vaccination may be one of the selective forces implicated in the successful spread of the Beijing genotype.

Serological relationships between certain avian and animal paramyxoviruses

An avian paramyxovirus designated Robin/Hiddensee/19/75 proved to be related to the Yucaipa virus group in cross haemagglutination inhibition test (HIT). Whereas the prototype parainfluenza viruses did not react with the antiserum raised against the Robin virus, a newly isolated bovine parainfluenza 3 virus was shown to be inhibited up to half the homologous titre. Possible antigenic relationships between avian, mammalian and human paramyxoviruses are discussed.