Info-gap management of public health Policy for TB with HIV-prevalence and epidemiological uncertainty

Principalism in public health decision making in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic lead scientists and governmental authorities to issue clinical and public health recommendations based on progressively emerging evidence and expert opinions and many of these fast-tracked to peer-reviewed publications. Concerns were raised on scientific quality and generalizability of this emerging evidence.

MAIN ARGUMENT

However, this way acting is not entirely new and often public health decisions are based on flawed and ambiguous evidence. Thus, to better guide decisions in these circumstances, in this article we argue that there is a need to follow fundamental principles in order to guide best public health practices. We purpose the usefulness of the framework of principalism in public which has been proved useful in real life conditions as a guide in the absence of reliable evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

It is recommended the implementation of these principles in an integrated manner adopting an holistic system approach to health policies adapted to specificities of local contexts.

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise

Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info-gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable-choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.