Temporal trend analysis of avoidable mortality in Taiwan, 1971-2008: overall progress, with areas for further medical or public health investment

Regional and sex inequalities of avoidable mortality in Italy: A time trend analysis

Objectives

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of avoidable mortality (AM), treatable mortality (TM), and preventable mortality (PM) across Italy, focusing on region- and gender-specific inequalities over a 14-year period.

Study design

Time-trend analysis (2006-2019).

Methods

The study was conducted using mortality data from the Italian Institute of Statistics to evaluate the extent and patterns of AM, TM, and PM in Italy. Biennial age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by gender and region using the joint OECD/Eurostat list.

Results

The overall AM rates showed a large reduction from 2006/7 (221.0 per 100,000) to 2018/9 (166.4 per 100,000). Notably, females consistently displayed lower AM rates than males. Furthermore, both gender differences and the North-South gap of AM decreased during the period studied. The regions with the highest AM rates fluctuated throughout the study period. The highest percentage decrease in AM from 2006/7 to 2018/9, for both males (-41.3 %) and females (-34.2 %), was registered in the autonomous province of Trento, while the lowest reduction was observed in Molise for males (-17.4 %) and in Marche for females (-10.0 %).

Conclusions

Remarkable gender and regional differences in AM between 2006 and 2019 have been recorded in Italy, although they have decreased over years. Continuous monitoring of AM and the implementation of region- and gender-specific interventions is essential to provide valuable insights for both policy and public health practice. This study contributes to the efforts to improve health equity between Italian regions.

Stratified analysis of the association between periodontitis and female breast cancer based on age, comorbidities and level of urbanization: A population-based nested case-control study

PURPOSE

To conduct stratified analysis of the association between periodontitis exposure and the risk of female breast cancer based on age, comorbidities and level of urbanization.

METHODS

Using claims data taken from the 1997-2013 Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), we identified 60,756 newly-diagnosed female breast cancer patients during the period 2003-2013 from all beneficiaries. We then randomly selected 243,024 women without breast cancer matching (1:4) for age and the year of the index date during 1997-2013 from a one million representative population acting as the control group. A conditional logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between periodontitis (ICD-9-CM codes 523.3-4) and the risk of breast cancer, shown as an odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) after adjustments for the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and level of urbanization. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on age, CCI and level of urbanization.

RESULTS

The mean ± standard deviation age was 53 ± 14 years. After adjusting for potential confounders, the risk of female breast cancer was found to be associated with a history of periodontitis (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.10-1.14). Such an association was significantly different between patients aged < 65 years (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.06-1.11) and patients aged ≥ 65 years (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.28; p for interaction <0.001), as well as between patients where the CCI = 0 (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.15-1.20) and patients with CCI > 0 (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.96-1.03; p for interaction <0.001). The highest level of urbanization was also associated with the risk of breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based nested case-control study demonstrated that periodontitis was significantly associated with the risk of female breast cancer and such an association was modified by both age and comorbidities.

Impacts of treatments on recurrence and 28-year survival of ischemic stroke patients

Aspirin and nicametate are well-established therapies for preventing recurrence and mortality from stroke in patients diagnosed as ischemic stroke. However, their respective effects on the recurrence, making allowance for the duration of recurrence and death without the occurrence of recurrence, and long-term survival have not been well elucidated. We aimed to evaluate long-term effect of two kinds of treatment on cerebrovascular death among ischemic stroke patients with or without the recurrence of stroke. Data used in this study were derived from the cohort based on a multicenter randomized double-blind controlled trial during 1992 to 1995 with the enrollment of a total of 466 patients with first-time non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke who were randomly allocated to receive aspirin (n = 222) or nicametate (n = 244). The trial cohort was followed up over time to ascertain the date of recurrence within trial period and death until Sep of 2019. The time-dependent Cox regression model was used to estimate the long-term effects of two treatments on death from cerebrovascular disease with and without recurrence. A total of 49 patients experienced stroke recurrence and 89 cerebrovascular deaths was confirmed. Patients treated with nicametate were more likely, but non statistically significantly, to have recurrence (aHR: 1.73, 95% CI 0.96–3.13) as compared with those treated by aspirin. Nicametate reduced the risk of cerebrovascular death about 37% (aHR: 0.63, 95% CI 0.41–0.97) compared with aspirin. The aspirin group had a lower recurrence rate than the nicametate group even with recurrence after 1–2 years of follow-up of first stroke but the latter had significantly reduced death from cerebrovascular disease for nicametate group, which requires more research to verify.

Associations Between Physician Supply Levels and Amenable Mortality Rates: An Analysis of Taiwan Over Nearly 4 Decades

Access to health care is an important determinant of health, but it remains unclear whether having more physicians reduces mortality. In this study, we used Taiwan’s population-level National Death Certification Registry data to investigate whether a greater supply of physicians is associated with lower rates of amenable mortality, defined as deaths that can be delayed with appropriate and timely medical treatment. Our baseline regression analysis adjusting only for age and sex shows that an increase in the number of physicians per 1000 is associated with a reduction of 1.7 (P < .01) and 0.97 (P < .01) age-standardized deaths per 100 000 for men and women, respectively. However, in our full analyses that control for socioeconomic factors and Taiwan’s health insurance expansion, we find that physician supply is no longer statistically associated with amenable mortality rates. Nevertheless, we found that greater physician supply levels are associated with a reduction in deaths from ischemic heart disease (−0.13 (P < .05) for men, and −0.066 (P < .05) for women). These findings suggest that overall, physician supply is not associated with amenable mortality rates after controlling for socioeconomic factors but may help reduce amenable mortality rates in specific causes of death.

Risk of Second Primary Malignancies in Lung Cancer Survivors - The Influence of Different Treatments

BACKGROUND

Currently, no large study addressing the relationship between lung cancer patients with different therapies and second primary malignancies (SPMs) is available.

METHODS

Using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, we conducted a population-based cohort study. Patients with newly diagnosed lung cancer between 1997 and 2005 were enrolled and followed up until Dec. 31, 2011. The endpoint of the study was SPM occurrence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of cancers were calculated to compare the cancer incidence of the study cohort to that of the general population.

RESULTS

We identified 52,639 patients with lung cancer and excluded 34,267 patients who had expired within one year after diagnosis. The study included 18,372 subjects with a median follow-up period of 2.24 years. 590 patients developed an SPM. The overall cancer risk was significantly increased (SIR 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-1.44, p < 0.001), and there was a significant increase in the incidences of head and neck (SIR 1.60, 95% CI 1.21-2.07, p = 0.001), bone and soft tissue (SIR 2.65, 95% CI 1.27-4.87, p = 0.011), genitourinary (SIR 1.50, 95% CI 1.27-1.76, p < 0.001), and thyroid (SIR 3.85, 95% CI 2.28-6.08, p < 0.001) cancers. Importantly, after multivariate adjustment, the use of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) statistically significantly reduced SPM incidence (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.21-0.79; p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that lung cancer may be a risk factor for SPM. TKI use was associated with a significantly lower risk of SPM development. However, because patients with epidermal growth factor receptor mutant lung adenocarcinoma (associated with non-smokers) tend to receive TKI treatment, they might have fewer smoking-related SPMs.

Causes of Death in Different Subtypes of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke

Causes of death in both ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) subtypes are not comprehensively studied. Between 2008 and 2011, we enrolled 11 215 first-ever stroke patients from the Stroke Registry of Chang-Gung Healthcare System and linked these data to the national death registry. The main causes of death in each stroke subtype were assessed. Patients with HS had higher overall mortality than IS (32.0% vs 18.1%, P < .001). In IS subtypes, large-artery atherosclerosis plus cardioembolism had the worst mortality (40.7%, P < .001). Stroke was the leading cause of death in both IS and HS within the first year. Stroke remained the major cause of death in HS, but cancer was the leading cause of death in IS after the first year. After excluding the patients with previous cancer history, cancer was still an important cause of death in IS and HS, particularly in the IS subtypes of small vessel occlusion, stroke of undetermined etiology, and transient ischemic attack.

Predictive model for 5-year mortality after breast cancer surgery in Taiwan residents

BACKGROUND

Few studies of breast cancer surgery outcomes have used longitudinal data for more than 2 years. This study aimed to validate the use of the artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the 5-year mortality of breast cancer patients after surgery and compare predictive accuracy between the ANN model, multiple logistic regression (MLR) model, and Cox regression model.

METHODS

This study compared the MLR, Cox, and ANN models based on clinical data of 3632 breast cancer patients who underwent surgery between 1996 and 2010. An estimation dataset was used to train the model, and a validation dataset was used to evaluate model performance. The sensitivity analysis was also used to assess the relative significance of input variables in the prediction model.

RESULTS

The ANN model significantly outperformed the MLR and Cox models in predicting 5-year mortality, with higher overall performance indices. The results indicated that the 5-year postoperative mortality of breast cancer patients was significantly associated with age, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), chemotherapy, radiotherapy, hormone therapy, and breast cancer surgery volumes of hospital and surgeon (all P < 0.05). Breast cancer surgery volume of surgeon was the most influential (sensitive) variable affecting 5-year mortality, followed by breast cancer surgery volume of hospital, age, and CCI.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the conventional MLR and Cox models, the ANN model was more accurate in predicting 5-year mortality of breast cancer patients who underwent surgery. The mortality predictors identified in this study can also be used to educate candidates for breast cancer surgery with respect to the course of recovery and health outcomes.

Breast Cancer Incidence and Predictors of Surgical Outcome: a Nationwide Longitudinal Study in Taiwan

AIMS

Despite the huge and growing global burden of patients who require breast cancer surgery, high-quality population-based studies of breast cancer trends and outcomes are scarce. The purpose of this study was to explore the incidence of breast cancer and predictors of hospital resource utilisation, mortality and recurrence in a nationwide population of patients who have received surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study analysed trends and outcomes in a Taiwan population of 77 971 patients after breast cancer surgery during 1996-2010. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for multivariate assessment of both mortality and recurrence predictors.

RESULTS

The data analysis indicated that, during this period, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost and mean length of stay increased by 16.3% and 53.4%, respectively. The estimated mean overall survival time was 138.9 months (standard deviation 0.3 months) and the overall 1, 3, 5 and 10 year survival rates were 97.3, 89.2, 82.2 and 70.1%, respectively. The estimated mean overall recurrence time was 10.8 months (standard deviation 0.2 months) and the overall 1, 3, 5 and 10 year recurrence rates were 0.1, 18.8, 26.6 and 36.0%, respectively. Outcomes were significantly associated with age, Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index score, surgeon seniority, hospital volume, surgeon volume, surgery type, hospital level and baseline comorbidities (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses of these population-based data revealed simultaneous increases in the standard incidence of breast cancer surgery and its associated medical resource utilisation. Notably, healthcare providers and patients should recognise that both patient attributes and hospital attributes may affect breast cancer surgery outcomes.

Global trends of lung cancer mortality and smoking prevalence

Lung cancer killed approximately 1,590,000 persons in 2012 and currently is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. There is large variation in mortality rates across the world in both males and females. This variation follows trend of smoking, as tobacco smoking is responsible for the majority of lung cancer cases. In this article, we present estimated worldwide lung cancer mortality rates in 2012 using the World Health Organization (WHO) GLOBOCAN 2012 and changes in the rates during recent decades in select countries using WHO Mortality Database. We also show smoking prevalence and trends globally and at the regional level. By region, the highest lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000) in 2012 were in Central and Eastern Europe (47.6) and Eastern Asia (44.8) among males and in Northern America (23.5) and Northern Europe (19.1) among females; the lowest rates were in sub-Saharan Africa in both males (4.4) and females (2.2). The highest smoking prevalence among males is generally in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe, and among females is in European countries, followed by Oceania and Northern and Southern America. Many countries, notably high-income countries, have seen a considerable decrease in smoking prevalence in both males and females, but in many other countries there has been little decrease or even an increase in smoking prevalence. Consequently, depending on whether or when smoking prevalence has started to decline, the lung cancer mortality trend is a mixture of decreasing, stable, or increasing. Despite major achievements in tobacco control, with current smoking patterns lung cancer will remain a major cause of death worldwide for several decades. The main priority to reduce the burden of lung cancer is to implement or enforce effective tobacco control policies in order to reduce smoking prevalence in all countries and prevent an increase in smoking in sub-Saharan Africa and women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality in urban areas of Spanish cities, 1996-2007

Background

While research continues into indicators such as preventable and amenable mortality in order to evaluate quality, access, and equity in the healthcare, it is also necessary to continue identifying the areas of greatest risk owing to these causes of death in urban areas of large cities, where a large part of the population is concentrated, in order to carry out specific actions and reduce inequalities in mortality. This study describes inequalities in amenable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–99, 2000–2003 and 2004–2007 in three major cities in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Alicante, Castellón, and Valencia).

Methods

All deaths attributed to amenable causes were analysed among non-institutionalised residents in the three cities studied over the course of the study periods. Census tracts for the cities were grouped into 3 socioeconomic status levels, from higher to lower levels of deprivation, using 5 indicators obtained from the 2001 Spanish Population Census. For each city, the relative risks of death were estimated between socioeconomic status levels using Poisson’s Regression models, adjusted for age and study period, and distinguishing between genders.

Results

Amenable mortality contributes significantly to general mortality (around 10%, higher among men), having decreased over time in the three cities studied for men and women. In the three cities studied, with a high degree of consistency, it has been seen that the risks of mortality are greater in areas of higher deprivation, and that these excesses have not significantly modified over time.

Conclusions

Although amenable mortality decreases over the time period studied, the socioeconomic inequalities observed are maintained in the three cities. Areas have been identified that display excesses in amenable mortality, potentially attributable to differences in the healthcare system, associated with areas of greater deprivation. Action must be taken in these areas of greater inequality in order to reduce the health inequalities detected. The causes behind socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality must be studied in depth.