Finding malaria hot-spots in northern Angola: the role of individual, household and environmental factors within a meso-endemic area

Managing vector-borne diseases in a geoAI-enabled society. Malaria as an example

More than 17 % of all infectious diseases are caused by vector-borne diseases resulting in more than 1 billion cases and over 1 million deaths each year. Of these malaria continues to be a global burden in over eighty countries. As societies become more digitalised, the availability of geospatially enabled health and disease information will become more abundant. With this, the ability to assess health and disease risks in real-time will become a reality. The purpose of this study was to examine how geographic information, geospatial technologies and spatial data science are being used to reduce the burden of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and explore the opportunities that lie ahead with GeoAI and other geospatial technology advancements. Malaria is a dynamic and complex system and as such a range of data and approaches are needed to tackle different parts of the malaria cycle at different local and global scales. Geospatial technologies provide an integrated framework vital for monitoring, analysing and managing vector-borne diseases. GeoAI and technological advancements are useful for enhancing real-time assessments, accelerating the decision making process and spatial targeting of interventions. Training is needed to enhance the use of geospatial information for the management of vector-borne diseases.

Comparing field-collected versus remotely-sensed variables to model malaria risk in the highlands of western Uganda

BACKGROUND

Malaria risk is not uniform across relatively small geographic areas, such as within a village. This heterogeneity in risk is associated with factors including demographic characteristics, individual behaviours, home construction, and environmental conditions, the importance of which varies by setting, making prediction difficult. This study attempted to compare the ability of statistical models to predict malaria risk at the household level using either (i) free easily-obtained remotely-sensed data or (ii) results from a resource-intensive household survey.

METHODS

The results of a household malaria survey conducted in 3 villages in western Uganda were combined with remotely-sensed environmental data to develop predictive models of two outcomes of interest (1) a positive ultrasensitive rapid diagnostic test (uRDT) and (2) inpatient admission for malaria within the last year. Generalized additive models were fit to each result using factors from the remotely-sensed data, the household survey, or a combination of both. Using a cross-validation approach, each model's ability to predict malaria risk for out-of-sample households (OOS) and villages (OOV) was evaluated.

RESULTS

Models fit using only environmental variables provided a better fit and higher OOS predictive power for uRDT result (AIC = 362, AUC = 0.736) and inpatient admission (AIC = 623, AUC = 0.672) compared to models using household variables (uRDT AIC = 376, Admission AIC = 644, uRDT AUC = 0.667, Admission AUC = 0.653). Combining the datasets did not result in a better fit or higher OOS predictive power for uRDT results (AIC = 367, AUC = 0.671), but did for inpatient admission (AIC = 615, AUC = 0.683). Household factors performed best when predicting OOV uRDT results (AUC = 0.596) and inpatient admission (AUC = 0.553), but not much better than a random classifier.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that residual malaria risk is driven more by the external environment than home construction within the study area, possibly due to transmission regularly occurring outside of the home. Additionally, they suggest that when predicting malaria risk the benefit may not outweigh the high costs of attaining detailed information on household predictors. Instead, using remotely-sensed data provides an equally effective, cost-efficient alternative.

Identifying individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria infection on Bioko Island to inform interventions

BACKGROUND

Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach.

METHODS

This study used individual and household-level data from the 2015 and 2018 annual malaria indicator surveys on Bioko Island, as well as remotely-sensed environmental data in multilevel logistic regression models to quantify the odds of malaria infection. The analyses were stratified by urban and rural settings and by survey year.

RESULTS

Malaria prevalence was higher in 10-14-year-old children and similar between female and male individuals. After adjusting for demographic factors and other covariates, many of the variables investigated showed no significant association with malaria infection. The factor most strongly associated was history of travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea (mEG), which increased the odds significantly both in urban and rural settings (people who travelled had 4 times the odds of infection). Sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net decreased significantly the odds of malaria across urban and rural settings and survey years (net users had around 30% less odds of infection), highlighting their contribution to malaria control on the Island. Improved housing conditions indicated some protection, though this was not consistent across settings and survey year.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria risk on Bioko Island is heterogeneous and determined by a combination of factors interacting with local mosquito ecology. These interactions grant further investigation in order to better adapt control according to need. The single most important risk factor identified was travel to mEG, in line with previous investigations, and represents a great challenge for the success of malaria control on the Island.

Civil Engineering and Malaria Risk: A Descriptive Study in a Rural Area of Cubal, Angola

(1) Background: Angola is among the high-burden countries with malaria cases globally. After 2013, we suspected an increase in the number of malaria cases in Cubal (Angola), previously in decline. Our objective was to evaluate the incidence rate in Cubal, overall and by neighborhood, for 2014, 2015, and 2016. (2) Methods: A retrospective, observational study was performed in Cubal (Angola) from January 2014 to December 2016, including all patients with a microbiologically confirmed diagnosis, treated at Cubal's Hospitals for this period of time. The principal variables calculated were the incidence rates of 2014, 2015, and 2016 in Cubal (overall and by neighborhood). (3) Results: There were 3249 malaria cases. The incidence rates were 2.27, 10.73, and 12.40 cases per 1000 inhabitants in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. In the neighborhood, Hamavoko-Kasseke, there was a 10.73-fold increase in incidence during this period. Additionally, Hamavoko-Kasseke presents an anomalous distribution of malaria cases. (4) Conclusions: We observed an increase in the incidence of malaria in Cubal during the three-year study period. The case distribution was highly heterogeneous with hyperendemic areas, and we found a chronobiological association between the construction of a civil engineering project. This information could be useful for deciding which malaria control strategies must be implemented in this area.

Malaria in Angola: recent progress, challenges and future opportunities using parasite demography studies

Over the past two decades, a considerable expansion of malaria interventions has occurred at the national level in Angola, together with cross-border initiatives and regional efforts in southern Africa. Currently, Angola aims to consolidate malaria control and to accelerate the transition from control to pre-elimination, along with other country members of the Elimination 8 initiative. However, the tremendous heterogeneity in malaria prevalence among Angolan provinces, as well as internal population movements and migration across borders, represent major challenges for the Angolan National Malaria Control Programme. This review aims to contribute to the understanding of factors underlying the complex malaria situation in Angola and to encourage future research studies on transmission dynamics and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum, important areas to complement host epidemiological information and to help reenergize the goal of malaria elimination in the country.

Guiding placement of health facilities using multiple malaria criteria and an interactive tool

BACKGROUND

Access to healthcare is important in controlling malaria burden and, as a result, distance or travel time to health facilities is often a significant predictor in modelling malaria prevalence. Adding new health facilities may reduce overall travel time to health facilities and may decrease malaria transmission. To help guide local decision-makers as they scale up community-based accessibility, the influence of the spatial allocation of new health facilities on malaria prevalence is evaluated in Bunkpurugu-Yunyoo district in northern Ghana. A location-allocation analysis is performed to find optimal locations of new health facilities by separately minimizing three district-wide objectives: malaria prevalence, malaria incidence, and average travel time to health facilities.

METHODS

Generalized additive models was used to estimate the relationship between malaria prevalence and travel time to the nearest health facility and other geospatial covariates. The model predictions are then used to calculate the optimisation criteria for the location-allocation analysis. This analysis was performed for two scenarios: adding new health facilities to the existing ones, and a hypothetical scenario in which the community-based healthcare facilities would be allocated anew. An interactive web application was created to facilitate efficient presentation of this analysis and allow users to experiment with their choice of health facility location and optimisation criteria.

RESULTS

Using malaria prevalence and travel time as optimisation criteria, two locations that would benefit from new health facilities were identified, regardless of scenarios. Due to the non-linear relationship between malaria incidence and prevalence, the optimal locations chosen based on the incidence criterion tended to be inequitable and was different from those based on the other optimisation criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

This study findings underscore the importance of using multiple optimisation criteria in the decision-making process. This analysis and the interactive application can be repurposed for other regions and criteria, bridging the gap between science, models and decisions.

Fine-scale variation in malaria prevalence across ecological regions in Madagascar: a cross-sectional study

Background

Large-scale variation in ecological parameters across Madagascar is hypothesized to drive varying spatial patterns of malaria infection. However, to date, few studies of parasite prevalence with resolution at finer, sub-regional spatial scales are available. As a result, there is a poor understanding of how Madagascar’s diverse local ecologies link with variation in the distribution of infections at the community and household level. Efforts to preserve Madagascar’s ecological diversity often focus on improving livelihoods in rural communities near remaining forested areas but are limited by a lack of data on their infectious disease burden.

Methods

To investigate spatial variation in malaria prevalence at the sub-regional scale in Madagascar, we sampled 1476 households (7117 total individuals, all ages) from 31 rural communities divided among five ecologically distinct regions. The sampled regions range from tropical rainforest to semi-arid, spiny forest and include communities near protected areas including the Masoala, Makira, and Mikea forests. Malaria prevalence was estimated by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) cross-sectional surveys performed during malaria transmission seasons over 2013–2017.

Results

Indicative of localized hotspots, malaria prevalence varied more than 10-fold between nearby (< 50 km) communities in some cases. Prevalence was highest on average in the west coast region (Morombe district, average community prevalence 29.4%), situated near protected dry deciduous forest habitat. At the household level, communities in southeast Madagascar (Mananjary district) were observed with over 50% of households containing multiple infected individuals at the time of sampling. From simulations accounting for variation in household size and prevalence at the community level, we observed a significant excess of households with multiple infections in rural communities in southwest and southeast Madagascar, suggesting variation in risk within communities.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the malaria infection burden experienced by rural communities in Madagascar varies greatly at smaller spatial scales (i.e., at the community and household level) and that the southeast and west coast ecological regions warrant further attention from disease control efforts. Conservation and development efforts in these regions may benefit from consideration of the high, and variable, malaria prevalences among communities in these areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11090-3.

Spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of malaria cases in Zimbabwe

Background

Although effective treatment for malaria is now available, approximately half of the global population remain at risk of the disease particularly in developing countries. To design effective malaria control strategies there is need to understand the pattern of malaria heterogeneity in an area. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to explore the spatial and spatio-temporal pattern of malaria cases in Zimbabwe based on malaria data aggregated at district level from 2011 to 2016.

Methods

Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial scan statistic were applied on passive malaria data collected from health facilities and aggregated at district level to detect existence of spatial clusters. The global Moran’s I test was used to infer the presence of spatial autocorrelation while the purely spatial retrospective analyses were performed to detect the spatial clusters of malaria cases with high rates based on the discrete Poisson model. Furthermore, space-time clusters with high rates were detected through the retrospective space-time analysis based on the discrete Poisson model.

Results

Results showed that there is significant positive spatial autocorrelation in malaria cases in the study area. In addition, malaria exhibits spatial heterogeneity as evidenced by the existence of statistically significant (P < 0.05) spatial and space-time clusters of malaria in specific geographic regions. The detected primary clusters persisted in the eastern region of the study area over the six year study period while the temporal pattern of malaria reflected the seasonality of the disease where clusters were detected within particular months of the year.

Conclusions

Geographic regions characterised by clusters of high rates were identified as malaria high risk areas. The results of this study could be useful in prioritizing resource allocation in high-risk areas for malaria control and elimination particularly in resource limited settings such as Zimbabwe. The results of this study are also useful to guide further investigation into the possible determinants of persistence of high clusters of malaria cases in particular geographic regions which is useful in reducing malaria burden in such areas.

Integrated community-based intervention for urinary schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis in children from Caxito, Angola

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) infections are major public health problems. We aimed to study the 6-mo impact of mass drug administration with praziquantel and albendazole on urinary schistosomiasis and STH.

METHODS

We examined children (aged 2-15 y) from one hamlet, who provided urine and faeces samples at baseline (n=197), 1 mo (n=102) and 6 mo (n=92); 67 completed the protocol.

RESULTS

At baseline, 47/67 (70.1%) children presented Schistosoma haematobium (75.8% in the baseline total sample) and 12/67 (17.9%) with STH (30.5% in the initial sample, p=0.010). Among the children, 47.3% had heavy Schistosoma haematobium infection. The most frequent STH was Trichuris trichiura in 9.0%. We also found Hymenolepis nana (13.2%) and Plasmodium falciparum (9.1%) infections and anaemia (82.1%). One mo after chemotherapy there was a significant (p=0.013) reduction of Schistosoma haematobium prevalence (23.5%) and a high egg reduction rate (86.9%). Considering the sample of 67 children, the mean egg concentration was 498 at baseline, 65 at 1 mo and 252 at 6 mo (p<0.05). We also observed a reduction in STH infections, 50% in Ascaris lumbricoides, 33.3% in T. trichiura and 50% in hookworms. At 6 mo, the prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium (76.1%) was similar to the baseline and the STH reduction was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal studies have reported many losses in these settings, but we were able to show that mass drug administration for control of schistosomiasis and STH present low effectiveness, that reinfections occur rapidly and that stand alone anthelmintic therapy is not a sustainable choice.

Risk Factors for Infectious Diseases in Urban Environments of Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence

Our world is rapidly urbanizing. According to the United Nations, between 1990 and 2015, the percent of the world's population living in urban areas grew from 43% to 54%. Estimates suggest that this trend will continue and that over 68% of the world's population will call cities home by 2050, with the majority of urbanization occurring in African countries. This urbanization is already having a profound effect on global health and could significantly impact the epidemiology of infectious diseases. A better understanding of infectious disease risk factors specific to urban settings is needed to plan for and mitigate against future urban outbreaks. We conducted a systematic literature review of the Web of Science and PubMed databases to assess the risk factors for infectious diseases in the urban environments of sub-Saharan Africa. A search combining keywords associated with cities, migration, African countries, infectious disease, and risk were used to identify relevant studies. Original research and meta-analyses published between 2004 and 2019 investigating geographical and behavioral risk factors, changing disease distributions, or control programs were included in the study. The search yielded 3610 papers, and 106 met the criteria for inclusion in the analysis. Papers were categorized according to risk factors, geographic area, and study type. The papers covered 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa with East Africa being the most represented sub-region. Malaria and HIV were the most frequent disease focuses of the studies. The results of this work can inform public health policy as it relates to capacity building and health systems strengthening in rapidly urbanizing areas, as well as highlight knowledge gaps that warrant additional research.

Malaria Hotspots: Is There Epidemiological Evidence for Fine-Scale Spatial Targeting of Interventions?

As data at progressively granular spatial scales become available, the temptation is to target interventions to areas with higher malaria transmission - so-called hotspots - with the aim of reducing transmission in the wider community. This paper reviews literature to determine if hotspots are an intrinsic feature of malaria epidemiology and whether current evidence supports hotspot-targeted interventions. Hotspots are a consistent feature of malaria transmission at all endemicities. The smallest spatial unit capable of supporting transmission is the household, where peri-domestic transmission occurs. Whilst the value of focusing interventions to high-burden areas is evident, there is currently limited evidence that local-scale hotspots fuel transmission. As boundaries are often uncertain, there is no conclusive evidence that hotspot-targeted interventions accelerate malaria elimination.

House Structure Is Associated with Plasmodium falciparum Infection in a Low-Transmission Setting in Southern Zambia

House structure may influence the risk of malaria by affecting mosquito entry and indoor resting. Identification of construction features associated with protective benefits could inform vector control approaches, even in low-transmission settings. We examined the association between house structure and malaria prevalence in a cross-sectional analysis of 2,788 children and adults residing in 866 houses in a low-transmission area of Southern Province, Zambia, over the period 2008-2012. Houses were categorized according to wall (brick/cement block or mud/grass) and roof (metal or grass) material. Malaria was assessed by point-of-care rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for Plasmodium falciparum. We identified 52 RDT-positive individuals residing in 41 houses, indicating an overall prevalence in the sample of 1.9%, ranging from 1.4% to 8.8% among the different house types. Occupants of higher quality houses had reduced odds of P. falciparum malaria compared with those in the lowest quality houses after controlling for bed net use, indoor insecticide spraying, clustering by house, cohabitation with another RDT-positive individual, transmission season, ecologic risk defined as nearest distance to a Strahler-classified third-order stream, education, age, and gender (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.09-0.73, P = 0.01 for houses with brick/cement block walls and metal roof; OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.09-0.52, P < 0.01 for houses with brick/cement block walls and grass roof). Housing improvements offer a promising approach to vector control in low-transmission settings that circumvents the threat posed by insecticide resistance, and may confer a protective benefit of similar magnitude to current vector control strategies.

Antimicrobial storage and antibiotic knowledge in the community: a cross-sectional pilot study in north-western Angola

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobials are drugs that were once lifesavers and mainly curative. Nowadays their value is increasingly under pressure because of the rapid and worldwide emergence of antimicrobial resistance, which, in low-resource settings, frequently occurs in microorganisms that are likely to be transmitted in the community.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional pilot study including 102 households within the 10th Health and Demographic Surveillance System round in Dande, Bengo Province, Angola.

RESULTS

Of the total 102 households piloted, 79 (77.45%) were urban. Fifty-seven respondents were female (56.44%), and the mean age of the respondents was 39.70±15.35years. Overall, storage of antimicrobials was found in 55/102 households (53.92%). More than 66% of the antimicrobials stored were prescribed by a health professional and the majority of antimicrobials were bought at pharmacies or at a street market. Penicillin and its derivatives, antimalarial drugs, and metronidazole were the antimicrobials most frequently stored. Households with female respondents reported storing any drugs at home more frequently (82.50%; p=0.002) and also storing antimicrobials more frequently (64.91%; p=0.016) as compared to households with male respondents. Reported use of antimicrobials was significantly higher in urban households (60.76%, 48/79) as compared to rural households (30.43%, 7/23) (p=0.010). Overall, 74 of 101 respondents (73.26%) reported having already heard about antibiotics. The common reasons given for their use were cough and other respiratory symptoms, wounds, flu and body muscle pain, fever, bladder complaints, and diarrhoea and/or presumed typhoid fever. Nearly 40% (28/74) of the respondents thought that antibiotics should be stopped as soon as the person does not feel sick anymore.

CONCLUSIONS

Community interventions for appropriate use of antibiotics should be designed with a special focus on women. This should be done through public awareness campaigns and improving access to reliable medical services. Drug prescribers are key not only to appropriate antimicrobial prescription, but also to adequate dispensing, and are strong advocates for the possible misconceptions on antimicrobial usage by lay people.

Passive case detection of malaria in Ratanakiri Province (Cambodia) to detect villages at higher risk for malaria

BACKGROUND

Cambodia reduced malaria incidence by more than 75% between 2000 and 2015, a target of the Millennium Development Goal 6. The Cambodian Government aims to eliminate all forms of malaria by 2025. The country's malaria incidence is highly variable at provincial level, but less is known at village level. This study used passive case detection (PCD) data at village level in Ratanakiri Province from 2010 to 2014 to describe incidence trends and identify high-risk areas of malaria to be primarily targeted towards malaria elimination.

METHODS

In 2010, the Cambodian malaria programme created a Malaria Information System (MIS) to capture malaria information at village level through PCD by village malaria workers and health facilities. The MIS data of Ratanakiri Province 2010-2014 were used to calculate annual incidence rates by Plasmodium species at province and commune levels. For estimating the trend at provincial level only villages reporting each year were selected. The communal incidences and the number of cases per village were visualized on a map per Plasmodium species and per year. Analysis of spatial clustering of village malaria cases by Plasmodium species was performed by year.

RESULTS

Overall, malaria annual incidence rates per 1000 inhabitants decreased from 86 (2010) to 30 (2014). Falciparum incidence decreased (by 79% in 2014 compared to 2010; CI 95% 76-82%) more rapidly than vivax incidence (by 19% in 2014 compared to 2010; CI 95% 5-32%). There were ten to 16 significant spatial clusters each year. Big clusters tended to extend along the Cambodian-Vietnamese border and along the Sesan River. Three clusters appeared throughout all years (2010-2014): one with 21 villages appeared each year, the second shrunk progressively from 2012 to 2014 and the third was split into two smaller clusters in 2013 and 2014.

CONCLUSION

The decline of malaria burden can be attributed to intensive malaria control activities implemented in the areas: distribution of a long-lasting insecticidal net per person and early diagnosis and prompt treatment. Dihydro-artemisinin piperaquine was the only first-line treatment for all malaria cases. No radical treatment with primaquine was provided for Plasmodium vivax cases, which could explain the slow decrease of P. vivax due to relapses. To achieve malaria elimination by 2025, priority should be given to the control of stable malaria clusters appearing over time.

Some probable factors affecting the malaria situation before and at the beginning of a pre-elimination program in southeastern Iran

The area southeast of Iran still copes with malaria as an unstable infectious disease and includes the most autochthonous malaria reports in the country. This comprehensive study was carried out for the evaluation of environmental factors, welfare indicators and health facilities on the malaria situation before and at the beginning of a pre-elimination programme in this area. The probable factors affecting the malaria situation, including the water-pipe network, electricity, rainfall, long-lasting integrated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying and malaria diagnosis-treatment centres were analysed using SPSS software. The Pearson correlation test showed no significant correlation between some factors such as piped water networks, annual precipitation, number of sprayed villages and autochthonous cases as well as autochthonous foci. But a significant correlation between electricity coverage, number of diagnoses of malaria-treatment centres and autochthonous cases\foci was observed. Also, the number of distributed LLINs didn't have any correlation with the number of total malaria cases, but a significant correlation between LLINs and autochthonous foci was seen. Detailed studies on the correlation of various variables, such as piped water, spraying coverage and number of malaria diagnosis centres, with the malaria situation is limited in Asia and other parts of the world. This study and others like it can help malaria managers and directors in the more accurate allocation of financial resources.

Main causes of death in Dande, Angola: results from Verbal Autopsies of deaths occurring during 2009-2012

BACKGROUND

The Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) located in Bengo Province, Angola, covers nearly 65,500 residents living in approximately 19,800 households. This study aims to describe the main causes of deaths (CoD) occurred within the HDSS, from 2009 to 2012, and to explore associations between demographic or socioeconomic factors and broad mortality groups (Group I-Communicable diseases, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions; Group II-Non-communicable diseases; Group III-Injuries; IND-Indeterminate).

METHODS

Verbal Autopsies (VA) were performed after death identification during routine HDSS visits. Associations between broad groups of CoD and sex, age, education, socioeconomic position, place of residence and place of death, were explored using chi-square tests and fitting logistic regression models.

RESULTS

From a total of 1488 deaths registered, 1009 verbal autopsies were performed and 798 of these were assigned a CoD based on the 10(th) revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Mortality was led by CD (61.0 %), followed by IND (18.3 %), NCD (11.6 %) and INJ (9.1 %). Intestinal infectious diseases, malnutrition and acute respiratory infections were the main contributors to under-five mortality (44.2 %). Malaria was the most common CoD among children under 15 years old (38.6 %). Tuberculosis, traffic accidents and malaria led the CoD among adults aged 15-49 (13.5 %, 10.5 % and 8.0 % respectively). Among adults aged 50 or more, diseases of the circulatory system (23.2 %) were the major CoD, followed by tuberculosis (8.2 %) and malaria (7.7 %). CD were more frequent CoD among less educated people (adjusted odds ratio, 95 % confidence interval for none vs. 5 or more years of school: 1.68, 1.04-2.72).

CONCLUSION

Infectious diseases were the leading CoD in this region. Verbal autopsies proved useful to identify the main CoD, being an important tool in settings where vital statistics are scarce and death registration systems have limitations.

Geo-spatial factors associated with infection risk among young children in rural Ghana: a secondary spatial analysis

Background

Determining the spatial patterns of infection among young children living in a malaria-endemic area may provide a means of locating high-risk populations who could benefit from additional resources for treatment and improved access to healthcare. The objective of this secondary analysis of baseline data from a cluster-randomized trial among 1943 young Ghanaian children (6–35 months of age) was to determine the geo-spatial factors associated with malaria and non-malaria infection status.

Methods

Spatial analyses were conducted using a generalized linear geostatistical model with a Matern spatial correlation function and four definitions of infection status using different combinations of inflammation (C-reactive protein, CRP > 5 mg/L) and malaria parasitaemia (with or without fever). Potentially informative variables were included in a final model through a series of modelling steps, including: individual-level variables (Model 1); household-level variables (Model 2); and, satellite-derived spatial variables (Model 3). A final (Model 4) and maximal model (Model 5) included a set of selected covariates from Models 1 to 3.

Results

The final models indicated that children with inflammation (CRP > 5 mg/L) and/or any evidence of malaria parasitaemia at baseline were more likely to be under 2 years of age, stunted, wasted, live further from a health facility, live at a lower elevation, have less educated mothers, and higher ferritin concentrations (corrected for inflammation) compared to children without inflammation or parasitaemia. Similar results were found when infection was defined as clinical malaria or parasitaemia with/without fever (definitions 3 and 4). Conversely, when infection was defined using CRP only, all covariates were non-significant with the exception of baseline ferritin concentration. In Model 5, all infection definitions that included parasitaemia demonstrated a significant interaction between normalized difference vegetation index and land cover type. Maps of the predicted infection probabilities and spatial random effect showed defined high- and low-risk areas that tended to coincide with elevation and cluster around villages.

Conclusions

The risk of infection among young children in a malaria-endemic area may have a predictable spatial pattern which is associated with geographical characteristics, such as elevation and distance to a health facility.

Original trial registration clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01001871)

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1388-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prospects and recommendations for risk mapping to improve strategies for effective malaria vector control interventions in Latin America

With malaria control in Latin America firmly established in most countries and a growing number of these countries in the pre-elimination phase, malaria elimination appears feasible. A review of the literature indicates that malaria elimination in this region will be difficult without locally tailored strategies for vector control, which depend on more research on vector ecology, genetics and behavioural responses to environmental changes, such as those caused by land cover alterations, and human population movements. An essential way to bridge the knowledge gap and improve vector control is through risk mapping. Malaria risk maps based on statistical and knowledge-based modelling can elucidate the links between environmental factors and malaria vectors, explain interactions between environmental changes and vector dynamics, and provide a heuristic to demonstrate how the environment shapes malaria transmission. To increase the utility of risk mapping in guiding vector control activities, definitions of malaria risk for mapping purposes must be standardized. The maps must also possess appropriate scale and resolution in order to become essential tools in integrated vector management (IVM), so that planners can target areas in greatest need of control measures. Fully integrating risk mapping into vector control programmes will make interventions more evidence-based, making malaria elimination more attainable.

Predictive Malaria Risk and Uncertainty Mapping in Nchelenge District, Zambia: Evidence of Widespread, Persistent Risk and Implications for Targeted Interventions

Malaria risk maps may be used to guide policy decisions on whether vector control interventions should be targeted and, if so, where. Active surveillance for malaria was conducted through household surveys in Nchelenge District, Zambia from April 2012 through December 2014. Households were enumerated based on satellite imagery and randomly selected for study enrollment. At each visit, participants were administered a questionnaire and a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Logistic regression models were used to construct spatial prediction risk maps and maps of risk uncertainty. A total of 461 households were visited, comprising 1,725 participants, of whom 48% were RDT positive. Several environmental features were associated with increased household malaria risk in a multivariable logistic regression model adjusting for seasonal variation. The model was validated using both internal and external evaluation measures to generate and assess root mean square error, as well as sensitivity and specificity for predicted risk. The final, validated model was used to predict and map malaria risk including a measure of risk uncertainty. Malaria risk in a high, perennial transmission setting is widespread but heterogeneous at a local scale, with seasonal variation. Targeting malaria control interventions may not be appropriate in this epidemiological setting.

Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues.

Methodology

Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008–2010. The integrated mapping used woreda (district) health offices’ reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence.

Principal Findings

Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2–51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3–64.8% of Ethiopia’s national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis.

Conclusions

Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale.

Podoconiosis is a neglected tropical disease that results in swelling of the lower legs and feet. It is common among barefoot individuals with prolonged contact with irritant soils of volcanic origin. The disease causes significant social and economic burden. The disease can be prevented by consistent shoe wearing and regular foot hygiene. A pre-requisite for implementation of prevention and morbidity management is information on where the disease is endemic and the identification of priority areas. We undertook nationwide mapping of podoconiosis in Ethiopia covering 1442 communities in 775 districts all over Ethiopia. During the survey, individuals underwent a rapid-format antigen test for diagnosis of lymphatic filariasis and clinical history and physical examination for podoconiosis. A suite of environmental and climatic data and a method called boosted regression tree modelling was used to predict the occurrence of podoconiosis. Our survey results indicated that podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated. The modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with more clay content and population density. The map showed that in 2010, 34.9 million people lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis in Ethiopia.

Molecular epidemiology of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Benguela province, Angola

Background

The malaria situation has been worsening in Angola, partly due to armed conflict until the recent past and drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum. Malaria transmission is heterogeneous within the country, and data on drug-resistant malaria in different parts of the country are incomplete. The aim of the present study was to evaluate resistance to 4-aminoquinolines and antifolate drugs in P. falciparum isolates collected in Benguela province, central Angola, using molecular markers.

Methods

Fingerprick capillary blood was collected from asymptomatic children aged less than 15 years old during a household survey in and around Balombo town in 2010–2011. Samples were screened for P. falciparum by nested PCR. Molecular markers (P. falciparum dihydrofolate reductase [pfdhfr], P. falciparum dihydropteroate synthase [pfdhps], P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter [pfcrt], and P. falciparum multidrug-resistance gene 1 [pfmdr1]) were sequenced to determine the key codons associated with drug resistance.

Results

A total of 60 blood samples were positive for P. falciparum. Most isolates with successful PCR amplification had mutant pfdhfr alleles, with either double mutant AICNI (69%) or triple mutant AIRNI (21%) haplotypes. A16V, S108T, and I164L substitutions were not found. Many of the isolates were carriers of either SGKAA (60%) or AGKAA (27%) pfdhps haplotype. K540E substitution was absent. There were only two pfcrt haplotypes: wild-type CVMNK (11%) and mutant CVIET (89%). Wild-type pfmdr1 NYSND haplotype was found in 19% of the isolates, whereas single mutant pfmdr1 YYSND and NFSND haplotypes occurred in 48% and 11%, respectively. Double mutant pfmdr1 haplotypes (YFSND and YYSNY) occurred rarely.

Conclusions

The results suggest that the high prevalence of mutant pfcrt CVIET haplotype is in agreement with low clinical efficacy of chloroquine observed in earlier studies and that the double pfdhfr mutant AICNI and single pfdhps mutant SGKAA are currently the predominant haplotypes associated with antifolate resistance in Benguela province. The hallmark of clinical resistance observed in East Africa, i.e. triple pfdhfr mutant haplotype (AIRNI) and double pfdhps mutant haplotype (SGEAA), was absent. These molecular findings need to be further evaluated in parallel with clinical studies, in particular with the efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine in pregnant women and artesunate-amodiaquine for uncomplicated malaria.

Changes in malaria epidemiology in a rural area of Cubal, Angola

Background

Scarce information about malaria epidemiology in Angola has been published. The objective of this study is to describe the epidemiology of malaria at the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Paz (Cubal, Angola) and the fatality rate due to malaria (total and in children under five years) in the last five years.

Methods

A retrospective, observational study was performed at the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Paz, a 400-bed rural hospital located in Benguela Province of Angola. The study population included all patients who attended the hospital from January 2009 to December 2013. Outcome variables were calculated as follows: the percentage of malaria cases (number of positive thick blood films, divided by the total thick blood films performed); the percentage of in-patients for malaria (number of in-patients diagnosed with malaria, divided by the total number of in-patients); and, the fatality rate (number of deaths due to malaria divided by the number of positive thick blood films).

Results

Overall, 23,106 thick blood films were performed, of which 3,279 (14.2%) were positive for Plasmodium falciparum infection. During this five-year period, a reduction of 40% (95% CI 37-43%, p < 0.001) in the malaria-positive slides was detected. Distribution of positive-malaria slides showed a seasonal distribution with a peak from December to March (rainy season). An average annual reduction of 52% (95% CI 50-54%, p < 0.001) in the admissions due to malaria was observed. The overall fatality rate due to malaria was 8.3%, and no significant differences in the annual fatality rate were found (p = 0.553).

Conclusions

A reduction in the number of malaria cases and the number of admissions due to malaria has been observed at the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Paz, during the last five years, and incidence along the study period showed a seasonal distribution. All this information could be useful when deciding which malaria control strategies have to be implemented in this area.

Operational research on malaria control and elimination: a review of projects published between 2008 and 2013

A literature review for operational research on malaria control and elimination was conducted using the term 'malaria' and the definition of operational research (OR). A total of 15 886 articles related to malaria were searched between January 2008 and June 2013. Of these, 582 (3.7%) met the definition of operational research. These OR projects had been carried out in 83 different countries. Most OR studies (77%) were implemented in Africa south of the Sahara. Only 5 (1%) of the OR studies were implemented in countries in the pre-elimination or elimination phase. The vast majority of OR projects (92%) were led by international or local research institutions, while projects led by National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCP) accounted for 7.8%. With regards to the topic under investigation, the largest percentage of papers was related to vector control (25%), followed by epidemiology/transmission (16.5%) and treatment (16.3%). Only 19 (3.8%) of the OR projects were related to malaria surveillance. Strengthening the capacity of NMCPs to conduct operational research and publish its findings, and improving linkages between NMCPs and research institutes may aid progress towards malaria elimination and eventual eradication world-wide.

A brief review of spatial analysis concepts and tools used for mapping, containment and risk modelling of infectious diseases and other illnesses

Fast response and decision making about containment, management, eradication and prevention of diseases, are increasingly important aspects of the work of public health officers and medical providers. Diseases and the agents causing them are spatially and temporally distributed, and effective countermeasures rely on methods that can timely locate the foci of infection, predict the distribution of illnesses and their causes, and evaluate the likelihood of epidemics. These methods require the use of large datasets from ecology, microbiology, health and environmental geography. Geodatabases integrating data from multiple sets of information are managed within the frame of geographic information systems (GIS). Many GIS software packages can be used with minimal training to query, map, analyse and interpret the data. In combination with other statistical or modelling software, predictive and spatio-temporal modelling can be carried out. This paper reviews some of the concepts and tools used in epidemiology and parasitology. The purpose of this review is to provide public health officers with the critical tools to decide about spatial analysis resources and the architecture for the prevention and surveillance systems best suited to their situations.

Habitat hydrology and geomorphology control the distribution of malaria vector larvae in rural Africa

Background

Larval source management is a promising component of integrated malaria control and elimination. This requires development of a framework to target productive locations through process-based understanding of habitat hydrology and geomorphology.

Methods

We conducted the first catchment scale study of fine resolution spatial and temporal variation in Anopheles habitat and productivity in relation to rainfall, hydrology and geomorphology for a high malaria transmission area of Tanzania.

Results

Monthly aggregates of rainfall, river stage and water table were not significantly related to the abundance of vector larvae. However, these metrics showed strong explanatory power to predict mosquito larval abundances after stratification by water body type, with a clear seasonal trend for each, defined on the basis of its geomorphological setting and origin.

Conclusion

Hydrological and geomorphological processes governing the availability and productivity of Anopheles breeding habitat need to be understood at the local scale for which larval source management is implemented in order to effectively target larval source interventions. Mapping and monitoring these processes is a well-established practice providing a tractable way forward for developing important malaria management tools.