Why do some coronaviruses become pandemic threats when others do not?

Despite multiple spillover events and short chains of transmission on at least 4 continents, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has never triggered a pandemic. By contrast, its relative, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has, despite apparently little, if any, previous circulation in humans. Resolving the unsolved mystery of the failure of MERS-CoV to trigger a pandemic could help inform how we understand the pandemic potential of pathogens, and probing it underscores a need for a more holistic understanding of the ways in which viral genetic changes scale up to population-level transmission.

Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination efforts and dose allocation within Madagascar

Background

While mass COVID-19 vaccination programs are underway in high-income countries, limited availability of doses has resulted in few vaccines administered in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) is a WHO-led initiative to promote vaccine access equity to LMICs and is providing many of the doses available in these settings. However, initial doses are limited and countries, such as Madagascar, need to develop prioritization schemes to maximize the benefits of vaccination with very limited supplies. There is some consensus that dose deployment should initially target health care workers, and those who are more vulnerable including older individuals. However, questions of geographic deployment remain, in particular associated with limits around vaccine access and delivery capacity in underserved communities, for example in rural areas that may also include substantial proportions of the population.

Methods

To address these questions, we developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and simulated various vaccination allocation strategies for Madagascar. Simulated strategies were based on a number of possible geographical prioritization schemes, testing sensitivity to initial susceptibility in the population, and evaluating the potential of tests for previous infection.

Results

Using cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 as the main outcome of interest, our results indicate that distributing the number of vaccine doses according to the number of elderly living in the region or according to the population size results in a greater reduction of mortality compared to distributing doses based on the reported number of cases and deaths. The benefits of vaccination strategies are diminished if the burden (and thus accumulated immunity) has been greatest in the most populous regions, but the overall strategy ranking remains comparable. If rapid tests for prior immunity may be swiftly and effectively delivered, there is potential for considerable gain in mortality averted, but considering delivery limitations modulates this.

Conclusion

At a subnational scale, our results support the strategy adopted by the COVAX initiative at a global scale.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13150-8.

Existing human mobility data sources poorly predicted the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar

For emerging epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying travel is a key component of developing accurate predictive models of disease spread to inform public health planning. However, in many LMICs, traditional data sets on travel such as commuting surveys as well as non-traditional sources such as mobile phone data are lacking, or, where available, have only rarely been leveraged by the public health community. Evaluating the accuracy of available data to measure transmission-relevant travel may be further hampered by limited reporting of suspected and laboratory confirmed infections. Here, we leverage case data collected as part of a COVID-19 dashboard collated via daily reports from the Malagasy authorities on reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 across the 22 regions of Madagascar. We compare the order of the timing of when cases were reported with predictions from a SARS-CoV-2 metapopulation model of Madagascar informed using various measures of connectivity including a gravity model based on different measures of distance, Internal Migration Flow data, and mobile phone data. Overall, the models based on mobile phone connectivity and the gravity-based on Euclidean distance best predicted the observed spread. The ranks of the regions most remote from the capital were more difficult to predict but interestingly, regions where the mobile phone connectivity model was more accurate differed from those where the gravity model was most accurate. This suggests that there may be additional features of mobility or connectivity that were consistently underestimated using all approaches but are epidemiologically relevant. This work highlights the importance of data availability and strengthening collaboration among different institutions with access to critical data - models are only as good as the data that they use, so building towards effective data-sharing pipelines is essential.

Challenges in modeling the emergence of novel pathogens

The emergence of infectious agents with pandemic potential present scientific challenges from detection to data interpretation to understanding determinants of risk and forecasts. Mathematical models could play an essential role in how we prepare for future emergent pathogens. Here, we describe core directions for expansion of the existing tools and knowledge base, including: using mathematical models to identify critical directions and paths for strengthening data collection to detect and respond to outbreaks of novel pathogens; expanding basic theory to identify infectious agents and contexts that present the greatest risks, over both the short and longer term; by strengthening estimation tools that make the most use of the likely range and uncertainties in existing data; and by ensuring modelling applications are carefully communicated and developed within diverse and equitable collaborations for increased public health benefit.

Why are there so few (or so many) circulating coronaviruses?

Despite vast diversity in non-human hosts and conspicuous recent spillover events, only a small number of coronaviruses have been observed to persist in human populations. This puzzling mismatch suggests substantial barriers to establishment. We detail hypotheses that might contribute to explain the low numbers of endemic coronaviruses, despite their considerable evolutionary and emergence potential. We assess possible explanations ranging from issues of ascertainment, historically lower opportunities for spillover, aspects of human demographic changes, and features of pathogen biology and pre-existing adaptive immunity to related viruses. We describe how successful emergent viral species must triangulate transmission, virulence, and host immunity to maintain circulation. Characterizing the factors that might shape the limits of viral persistence can delineate promising research directions to better understand the combinations of pathogens and contexts that are most likely to lead to spillover.

Existing human mobility data sources poorly predicted the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar

For emerging epidemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying travel is a key component of developing accurate predictive models of disease spread to inform public health planning. However, in many LMICs, traditional data sets on travel such as commuting surveys as well as non-traditional sources such as mobile phone data are lacking, or, where available, have only rarely been leveraged by the public health community. Evaluating the accuracy of available data to measure transmission-relevant travel may be further hampered by limited reporting of suspected and laboratory confirmed infections. Here, we leverage case data collected as part of a COVID-19 dashboard collated via daily reports from the Malagasy authorities on reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 across the 22 regions of Madagascar. We compare the order of the timing of when cases were reported with predictions from a SARS-CoV-2 metapopulation model of Madagascar informed using various measures of connectivity including a gravity model based on different measures of distance, Internal Migration Flow data, and mobile phone data. Overall, the models based on mobile phone connectivity and the gravity-based on Euclidean distance best predicted the observed spread. The ranks of the regions most remote from the capital were more difficult to predict but interestingly, regions where the mobile phone connectivity model was more accurate differed from those where the gravity model was most accurate. This suggests that there may be additional features of mobility or connectivity that were consistently underestimated using all approaches, but are epidemiologically relevant. This work highlights the importance of data availability and strengthening collaboration among different institutions with access to critical data - models are only as good as the data that they use, so building towards effective data-sharing pipelines is essential.

Fine-scale variation in malaria prevalence across ecological regions in Madagascar: a cross-sectional study

Background

Large-scale variation in ecological parameters across Madagascar is hypothesized to drive varying spatial patterns of malaria infection. However, to date, few studies of parasite prevalence with resolution at finer, sub-regional spatial scales are available. As a result, there is a poor understanding of how Madagascar’s diverse local ecologies link with variation in the distribution of infections at the community and household level. Efforts to preserve Madagascar’s ecological diversity often focus on improving livelihoods in rural communities near remaining forested areas but are limited by a lack of data on their infectious disease burden.

Methods

To investigate spatial variation in malaria prevalence at the sub-regional scale in Madagascar, we sampled 1476 households (7117 total individuals, all ages) from 31 rural communities divided among five ecologically distinct regions. The sampled regions range from tropical rainforest to semi-arid, spiny forest and include communities near protected areas including the Masoala, Makira, and Mikea forests. Malaria prevalence was estimated by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) cross-sectional surveys performed during malaria transmission seasons over 2013–2017.

Results

Indicative of localized hotspots, malaria prevalence varied more than 10-fold between nearby (< 50 km) communities in some cases. Prevalence was highest on average in the west coast region (Morombe district, average community prevalence 29.4%), situated near protected dry deciduous forest habitat. At the household level, communities in southeast Madagascar (Mananjary district) were observed with over 50% of households containing multiple infected individuals at the time of sampling. From simulations accounting for variation in household size and prevalence at the community level, we observed a significant excess of households with multiple infections in rural communities in southwest and southeast Madagascar, suggesting variation in risk within communities.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the malaria infection burden experienced by rural communities in Madagascar varies greatly at smaller spatial scales (i.e., at the community and household level) and that the southeast and west coast ecological regions warrant further attention from disease control efforts. Conservation and development efforts in these regions may benefit from consideration of the high, and variable, malaria prevalences among communities in these areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11090-3.

Variation in SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa

A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (for example, warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis. We synthesized factors hypothesized to drive the pace and burden of this pandemic in SSA during the period from 25 February to 20 December 2020, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare capacity, intervention efforts and human mobility dimensions. Large diversity in the probable drivers indicates a need for caution in interpreting analyses that aggregate data across low- and middle-income settings. Our simulation shows that climatic variation between SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories; however, heterogeneity in connectivity, although rarely considered, is likely an important contributor to variance in the pace of viral spread across SSA. Our synthesis points to the potential benefits of context-specific adaptation of surveillance systems during the ongoing pandemic. In particular, characterizing patterns of severity over age will be a priority in settings with high comorbidity burdens and poor access to care. Understanding the spatial extent of outbreaks warrants emphasis in settings where low connectivity could drive prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks resulting in extended stress to health systems.

Monitoring for outbreak-associated excess mortality in an African city: Detection limits in Antananarivo, Madagascar

OBJECTIVES

Quantitative estimates of the impact of infectious disease outbreaks are required to develop measured policy responses. In many low- and middle-income countries, inadequate surveillance and incompleteness of death registration are important barriers.

DESIGN

Here, we characterize how large an impact on mortality would have to be for being detectable using the uniquely detailed mortality notification data from the city of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with application to a recent measles outbreak.

RESULTS

The weekly mortality rate of children during the 2018-2019 measles outbreak was 161% above the expected value at its peak, and the signal can be detected earlier in children than in the general population. This approach to detect anomalies from expected baseline mortality allows us to delineate the prevalence of COVID-19 at which excess mortality would be detectable with the existing death notification system in Antananarivo.

CONCLUSIONS

Given current age-specific estimates of the COVID-19 fatality ratio and the age structure of the population in Antananarivo, we estimate that as few as 11 deaths per week in the 60-70 years age group (corresponding to an infection rate of approximately 1%) would detectably exceed the baseline. Data from 2020 will undergo necessary processing and quality control in the coming months. Our results provide a baseline for interpreting this information.

Variation in Anopheles distribution and predictors of malaria infection risk across regions of Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Deforestation and land use change is widespread in Madagascar, altering local ecosystems and creating opportunities for disease vectors, such as the Anopheles mosquito, to proliferate and more easily reach vulnerable, rural populations. Knowledge of risk factors associated with malaria infections is growing globally, but these associations remain understudied across Madagascar's diverse ecosystems experiencing rapid environmental change. This study aims to uncover socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection across regions through analysis of a large, cross-sectional dataset.

METHODS

The objectives were to assess (1) the ecological correlates of malaria vector breeding through larval surveys, and (2) the socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection in four ecologically distinct regions of rural Madagascar. Risk factors were determined using multilevel models for the four regions included in the study.

RESULTS

The presence of aquatic agriculture (both within and surrounding communities) is the strongest predictive factor of habitats containing Anopheles larvae across all regions. Ecological and socioeconomic risk factors for malaria infection vary dramatically across study regions and range in their complexity.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for malaria transmission differ dramatically across regions of Madagascar. These results may help stratifying current malaria control efforts in Madagascar beyond the scope of existing interventions.

Study Protocol: A Cross-Sectional Examination of Socio-Demographic and Ecological Determinants of Nutrition and Disease Across Madagascar

Madagascar has experienced significant environmental change since 1960, particularly through forest clearing for agricultural expansion. Climatic patterns are undergoing change in Madagascar as well, with increasing temperatures, droughts, and cyclonic activity. The impact of these environmental and climatic changes will pose threats to food availability, income generation, and local ecosystems, with significant potential effects on the spatial and temporal distribution of disease burden. This study seeks to describe the health status of a large sample of geographically and socially diverse Malagasy communities through multiple clinical measurements, detailed social surveys, and paired data on regional variation in local ecologies. With an increased understanding of the current patterns of variation in human health and nutrition, future studies will be better able to identify associations with climate and anticipate and mitigate the burdens expected from larger, longer-term changes. Our mixed-method approach included an observational cross-sectional study. Research subjects were men, women, and children from 1,125 households evenly distributed across 24 communities in four ecologically and socio-demographically distinct regions of Madagascar. For these 1,125 households, all persons of both sexes and all ages therein (for a total of 6,292 individuals) were recruited into the research study and a total of 5,882 individuals were enrolled. Through repeated social survey recalls and focus group meetings, we obtained social and demographic data, including broad categories of seasonal movements, and characterized the fluctuation of income generation, food production and dietary consumption. Through collection of clinical and biological samples for both point-of-care diagnoses and laboratory analyses, we obtained detailed occurrence (and importantly co-occurrence) data on micronutrient nutritional, infectious disease, and non-communicable disease status. Our research highlights the highly variable social, cultural, and environmental contexts of health conditions in Madagascar, and the tremendous inter-regional, inter-community, and intra-community variation in nutritional and disease status. More than 30% of the surveyed population was afflicted by anemia and 14% of the population had a current malaria infection. This type of rich metadata associated with a suite of biological samples and nutritional and disease outcome data should allow disentangling some of the underlying drivers of ill health across the changing landscapes of Madagascar.

High variation expected in the pace and burden of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa

A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (e.g., warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis accounting for factors that may offset the effects of climate and demography. Here, we synthesize factors hypothesized to shape the pace of this pandemic and its burden as it moves across SSA, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare and intervention capacity, and human mobility dimensions of risk. We find large scale diversity in probable drivers, such that outcomes are likely to be highly variable among SSA countries. While simulation shows that extensive climatic variation among SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories, heterogeneity in connectivity is likely to play a large role in shaping the pace of viral spread. The prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks expected in weakly connected settings may result in extended stress to health systems. In addition, the observed variability in comorbidities and access to care will likely modulate the severity of infection: We show that even small shifts in the infection fatality ratio towards younger ages, which are likely in high risk settings, can eliminate the protective effect of younger populations. We highlight countries with elevated risk of 'slow pace', high burden outbreaks. Empirical data on the spatial extent of outbreaks within SSA countries, their patterns in severity over age, and the relationship between epidemic pace and health system disruptions are urgently needed to guide efforts to mitigate the high burden scenarios explored here.

Cohort Description of the Madagascar Health and Environmental Research-Antongil (MAHERY-Antongil) Study in Madagascar

The Madagascar Health and Environmental Research-Antongil (MAHERY-Antongil) study cohort was set up in September 2015 to assess the nutritional value of seafood for the coastal Malagasy population living along Antongil Bay in northeastern Madagascar. Over 28 months of surveillance, we aimed to understand the relationships among different marine resource governance models, local people's fish catch, the consumption of seafood, and nutritional status. In the Antongil Bay, fisheries governance takes three general forms: traditional management, marine national parks, and co-management. Traditional management involves little to no involvement by the national government or non-governmental organizations, and focuses on culturally accepted Malagasy community practices. Co-management and marine national parks involve management support from either an non-govermental organization (NGO) or the national government. Five communities of varying governance strategies were enrolled into the study including 225 households and 1031 individuals whose diets, resource acquisition strategies, fisheries and agricultural practices, and other social, demographic and economic indicators were measured over the span of 3 years. Clinical visits with each individual were conducted at two points during the study to measure disease and nutritional status. By analyzing differences in fish catch arising from variation in governance (in addition to intra-annual seasonal changes and minor inter-annual changes), the project will allow us to calculate the public health value of sustainable fisheries management approaches for local populations. There is hope that coastal zones that are managed sustainably can increase the productivity of fisheries, increasing the catch of seafood products for poor, undernourished populations.

Extensive Unexplored Human Microbiome Diversity Revealed by Over 150,000 Genomes from Metagenomes Spanning Age, Geography, and Lifestyle

The body-wide human microbiome plays a role in health, but its full diversity remains uncharacterized, particularly outside of the gut and in international populations. We leveraged 9,428 metagenomes to reconstruct 154,723 microbial genomes (45% of high quality) spanning body sites, ages, countries, and lifestyles. We recapitulated 4,930 species-level genome bins (SGBs), 77% without genomes in public repositories (unknown SGBs [uSGBs]). uSGBs are prevalent (in 93% of well-assembled samples), expand underrepresented phyla, and are enriched in non-Westernized populations (40% of the total SGBs). We annotated 2.85 M genes in SGBs, many associated with conditions including infant development (94,000) or Westernization (106,000). SGBs and uSGBs permit deeper microbiome analyses and increase the average mappability of metagenomic reads from 67.76% to 87.51% in the gut (median 94.26%) and 65.14% to 82.34% in the mouth. We thus identify thousands of microbial genomes from yet-to-be-named species, expand the pangenomes of human-associated microbes, and allow better exploitation of metagenomic technologies.

Predicting nutrient content of ray-finned fishes using phylogenetic information

Human food and nutrition security is dependent on marine ecosystems threatened by overfishing, climate change, and other processes. The consequences on human nutritional status are uncertain, in part because current methods of analyzing fish nutrient content are expensive. Here, we evaluate the possibility of predicting nutrient content of ray-finned fishes using existing phylogenetic and life history information. We focus on nutrients for which fish are important sources: protein, total fat, omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids, iron, zinc, vitamin A, vitamin B12, and vitamin D. Our results show that life history traits are weak predictors of species nutrient content, but phylogenetic relatedness is associated with similar nutrient profiles. Further, we develop a method for predicting the nutrient content of 7500+ species based on phylogenetic relationships to species with known nutrient content. Our approach is a cost-effective means for estimating potential changes in human nutrient intake associated with altered access to ray-finned fishes.

Humans increasingly depend on seafood for nutrition, but nutrient content is unknown for the vast majority of fish species. Here, the authors use phylogenetic analyses and data imputation to predict the nutrient content of fish that are under-studied but that could be of future dietary importance.

Genetic evidence that the Makira region in northeastern Madagascar is a hotspot of malaria transmission

BACKGROUND

Encouraging advances in the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria have been observed across much of Africa in the past decade. However, regions of high relative prevalence and transmission that remain unaddressed or unrecognized provide a threat to this progress. Difficulties in identifying such localized hotspots include inadequate surveillance, especially in remote regions, and the cost and labor needed to produce direct estimates of transmission. Genetic data can provide a much-needed alternative to such empirical estimates, as the pattern of genetic variation within malaria parasite populations is indicative of the level of local transmission. Here, genetic data were used to provide the first empirical estimates of P. falciparum malaria prevalence and transmission dynamics for the rural, remote Makira region of northeastern Madagascar.

METHODS

Longitudinal surveys of a cohort of 698 total individuals (both sexes, 0-74 years of age) were performed in two communities bordering the Makira Natural Park protected area. Rapid diagnostic tests, with confirmation by molecular methods, were used to estimate P. falciparum prevalence at three seasonal time points separated by 4-month intervals. Genomic loci in a panel of polymorphic, putatively neutral markers were genotyped for 94 P. falciparum infections and used to characterize genetic parameters known to correlate with transmission levels.

RESULTS

Overall, 27.8% of individuals tested positive for P. falciparum over the 10-month course of the study, a rate approximately sevenfold higher than the countrywide average for Madagascar. Among those P. falciparum infections, a high level of genotypic diversity and a high frequency of polygenomic infections (68.1%) were observed, providing a pattern consistent with high and stable transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence and genetic diversity data indicate that the Makira region is a hotspot of P. falciparum transmission in Madagascar. This suggests that the area should be highlighted for future interventions and that additional areas of high transmission may be present in ecologically similar regions nearby.

The utility of genomic data for Plasmodium vivax population surveillance

Genetic polymorphisms identified from genomic sequencing can be used to track changes in parasite populations through time. Such tracking is particularly informative when applying control strategies and evaluating their effectiveness. Using genomic approaches may also enable improved ability to categorise populations and to stratify them according to the likely effectiveness of intervention. Clinical applications of genomic approaches also allow relapses to be classified according to reinfection or recrudescence. These tools can be used not only to assess the effectiveness of malaria interventions but also to appraise the strategies for malaria elimination.

Merozoite surface protein-3 alpha as a genetic marker for epidemiologic studies in Plasmodium vivax: a cautionary note

Background

Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread of the human malaria parasites in terms of geography, and is thought to present unique challenges to local efforts aimed at control and elimination. Parasite molecular markers can provide much needed data on P. vivax populations, but few such markers have been critically evaluated. One marker that has seen extensive use is the gene encoding merozoite surface protein 3-alpha (MSP-3α), a blood-stage antigen known to be highly variable among P. vivax isolates. Here, a sample of complete msp-3α gene sequences is analysed in order to assess its utility as a molecular marker for epidemiologic investigations.

Methods

Amplification, cloning and sequencing of additional P. vivax isolates from different geographic locations, including a set of Venezuelan field isolates (n = 10), yielded a sample of 48 complete msp-3α coding sequences. Characterization of standard population genetic measures of diversity, phylogenetic analysis, and tests for recombination were performed. This allowed comparisons to patterns inferred from the in silico simulation of a polymerase chain reaction restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) protocol used widely.

Results

The larger sample of MSP-3α diversity revealed incongruence between the observed levels of nucleotide polymorphism, which were high in all populations, and the pattern of PCR-RFLP haplotype diversity. Indeed, PCR-RFLP haplotypes were not informative of a population’s genetic diversity and identical haplotypes could be produced from analogous bands in the commonly used protocol. Evidence of frequent and variable insertion-deletion mutations and recurrent recombination between MSP-3α haplotypes complicated the inference of genetic diversity patterns and reduced the phylogenetic signal.

Conclusions

The genetic diversity of P. vivax msp-3α involves intragenic recombination events. Whereas the high genetic diversity of msp-3α makes it a promising marker for some epidemiological applications, the ability of msp-3α PCR-RFLP analysis to accurately track parasites is limited. Local studies of the circulating alleles are needed before implementing PCR-RFLP approaches. Furthermore, evidence from the global sample analysed here suggests such msp-3α PCR-RFLP methods are not suitable for broad geographic studies or tracking parasite populations for an extended period of time.

scAAV-mediated gene transfer of interleukin-1-receptor antagonist to synovium and articular cartilage in large mammalian joints

With the long-term goal of developing a gene-based treatment for osteoarthritis (OA), we performed studies to evaluate the equine joint as a model for adeno-associated virus (AAV)-mediated gene transfer to large, weight-bearing human joints. A self-complementary AAV2 vector containing the coding regions for human interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (hIL-1Ra) or green fluorescent protein was packaged in AAV capsid serotypes 1, 2, 5, 8 and 9. Following infection of human and equine synovial fibroblasts in culture, we found that both were only receptive to transduction with AAV1, 2 and 5. For these serotypes, however, transgene expression from the equine cells was consistently at least 10-fold higher. Analyses of AAV surface receptor molecules and intracellular trafficking of vector genomes implicate enhanced viral uptake by the equine cells. Following delivery of 1 × 10(11) vector genomes of serotypes 2, 5 and 8 into the forelimb joints of the horse, all three enabled hIL-1Ra expression at biologically relevant levels and effectively transduced the same cell types, primarily synovial fibroblasts and, to a lesser degree, chondrocytes in articular cartilage. These results provide optimism that AAV vectors can be effectively adapted for gene delivery to large human joints affected by OA.

The effect of adrenergic suppression induced by guanabenz administration on exercising Thoroughbred horses

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY

Adrenergic activity accompanies intense exercise and mediates physiological and metabolic responses to exercise. Guanabenz, an antihypertensive drug marketed for human usage, depresses brain vasomotor and cardioaccelerator centres, blocks peripherally adrenergic neurons and is reportedly used as a calming agent in horses but little is known of its effects in the species.

OBJECTIVES

To determine if guanabenz induces measurable signs of adrenergic suppression on fit Thoroughbred horses undergoing intense exercise.

METHODS

In a random crossover design, 12 exercise conditioned Thoroughbred horses each received guanabenz (0.08 mg/kg bwt i.v.) and placebo at 3-week intervals. An incremental exercise test to exhaustion on a treadmill followed treatment by 1 h. Heart rate, oxygen consumption, carbon dioxide production, plasma lactate, catecholamines, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol, and time to fatigue were monitored. Statistical analysis was performed using mixed-effects linear modelling.

RESULTS

Mean heart rate during the exercise period was lower in guanabenz-treated horses (P = 0.04). Mean concentrations of plasma cortisol (P = 0.02) and adrenaline (P = 0.03) were lower for guanabenz-treated horses during the exercise period. Mean run time was slightly but not significantly longer for guanabenz-treated horses, (P = 0.053). No significant effects of guanabenz administration were found for oxygen consumption, carbon dioxide production nor for plasma lactate, noradrenaline and ACTH concentrations.

CONCLUSION

Guanabenz administration induced signs of adrenergic suppression including plasma cortisol and adrenaline concentrations and heart rate and may enhance endurance, but did not eliminate increases in hormone concentrations induced by exercise. Clear determination of a positive performance effect of adrenaline, but not noradrenaline, suppression is needed before clinical significance can be determined.

Effects of 21 days of bed rest, with or without artificial gravity, on nutritional status of humans

Spaceflight and bed rest models of microgravity have profound effects on physiological systems, including the cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, and immune systems. These effects can be exacerbated by suboptimal nutrient status, and therefore it is critical to monitor nutritional status when evaluating countermeasures to mitigate negative effects of spaceflight. As part of a larger study to investigate the usefulness of artificial gravity as a countermeasure for musculoskeletal and cardiovascular deficits during bed rest, we tested the hypothesis that artificial gravity would have an effect on some aspects of nutritional status. Dietary intake was recorded daily before, during, and after 21 days of bed rest with artificial gravity (n = 8) or bed rest alone (n = 7). We examined body composition, hematology, general blood chemistry, markers of oxidative damage, and blood levels of selected vitamins and minerals before, during, and after the bed rest period. Several indicators of vitamin status changed in response to diet changes: serum alpha- and gamma-tocopherol and urinary 4-pyridoxic acid decreased (P < 0.001) and plasma beta-carotene increased (P < 0.001) in both groups during bed rest compared with before bed rest. A decrease in hematocrit (P < 0.001) after bed rest was accompanied by a decrease in transferrin (P < 0.001), but transferrin receptors were not changed. These data provide evidence that artificial gravity itself does not negatively affect nutritional status during bed rest. Likewise, artificial gravity has no protective effect on nutritional status during bed rest.

Nutritional status assessment in semiclosed environments: ground-based and space flight studies in humans

Adequate nutrition is critical during long-term spaceflight, as is the ability to easily monitor dietary intake. A comprehensive nutritional status assessment profile was designed for use before, during and after flight. It included assessment of both dietary intake and biochemical markers of nutritional status. A spaceflight food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was developed to evaluate intake of key nutrients during spaceflight. The nutritional status assessment protocol was evaluated during two ground-based closed-chamber studies (60 and 91 d; n = 4/study), and was implemented for two astronauts during 4-mo stays on the Mir space station. Ground-based studies indicated that the FFQ, administered daily or weekly, adequately estimated intake of key nutrients. Chamber subjects maintained prechamber energy intake and body weight. Astronauts tended to eat 40--50% of WHO-predicted energy requirements, and lost >10% of preflight body mass. Serum ferritin levels were lower after the chamber stays, despite adequate iron intake. Red blood cell folate concentrations were increased after the chamber studies. Vitamin D stores were decreased by > 40% on chamber egress and after spaceflight. Mir crew members had decreased levels of most nutritional indices, but these are difficult to interpret given the insufficient energy intake and loss of body mass. Spaceflight food systems can provide adequate intake of macronutrients, although, as expected, micronutrient intake is a concern for any closed or semiclosed food system. These data demonstrate the utility and importance of nutritional status assessment during spaceflight and of the FFQ during extended-duration spaceflight.

Simulated microgravity [bed rest] has little influence on taste, odor or trigeminal sensitivity

Anecdotal evidence suggests that astronauts' perceptions of foods in space flight may differ from their perceptions of the same foods on Earth. Fluid shifts toward the head experienced in space may alter the astronauts' sensitivity to odors and tastes, producing altered perceptions. Our objective was to determine whether head-down bed rest, which produces similar fluid shifts, would produce changes in sensitivity to taste, odor or trigeminal sensations. Six subjects were rested three times prior to bed rest, three times during bed rest and two times after bed rest to determine their threshold sensitivity to the odors isoamylbutyrate and menthone, the tastants sucrose, sodium chloride, citric acid, quinine and monosodium glutamate, and to capsaicin. Thresholds were measured using a modified staircase procedure. Self-reported congestion was also recorded at each test time. Thresholds for monosodium glutamate where slightly higher during bed rest. None of the other thresholds were altered by bed rest.

Calcium metabolism before, during, and after a 3-mo spaceflight: kinetic and biochemical changes

The loss of bone during spaceflight is considered a physiological obstacle for the exploration of other planets. This report of calcium metabolism before, during, and after long-duration spaceflight extends results from Skylab missions in the 1970s. Biochemical and endocrine indexes of calcium and bone metabolism were measured together with calcium absorption, excretion, and bone turnover using stable isotopes. Studies were conducted before, during, and after flight in three male subjects. Subjects varied in physical activity, yet all lost weight during flight. During flight, calcium intake and absorption decreased up to 50%, urinary calcium excretion increased up to 50%, and bone resorption (determined by kinetics or bone markers) increased by over 50%. Osteocalcin and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, markers of bone formation, increased after flight. Subjects lost approximately 250 mg bone calcium per day during flight and regained bone calcium at a slower rate of approximately 100 mg/day for up to 3 mo after landing. Further studies are required to determine the time course of changes in calcium homeostasis during flight to develop and assess countermeasures against flight-induced bone loss.

Dietary studies in the joint US-Russian space program

Metabolic experiments in the joint US-Russian space program involve analysis of food records, which include weighed foods, stable-isotope turnover, and biochemical samples collected before, during, and after the flights. This article describes the methods of monitoring dietary intake for this program.

Nutrition in space: lessons from the past applied to the future

From the basic impact of nutrient intake on health maintenance to the psychosocial benefits of mealtime, the role of nutrition in space is evident. In this discussion, dietary intake data from three space programs, Apollo, Space Shuttle, and Skylab, are presented. Data examination reveals that energy and fluid intakes are almost always lower than predicted. Nutrition in space has many areas of impact, including provision of required nutrients and maintenance of endocrine, immune, and musculoskeletal systems. Long-duration missions will require quantitation of nutrient requirements for maintenance of health and protection against the effects of microgravity. Psychosocial aspects of nutrition will also be important for more productive missions and crew morale. Realization of the full role of nutrition during spaceflight is critical for the success of extended-duration missions. Research conducted to determine the impact of spaceflight on human physiology and subsequent nutritional requirements will also have direct and indirect applications in Earth-based nutrition research.

Distribution and correlates of waist-to-hip ratio in black adults: the Pitt County Study

A 1988 community-based survey of 1,784 black adults aged 25-50 years in Pitt County, North Carolina, found mean waist-to-hip ratios of 0.890 for men and 0.852 for women. Based on guidelines from the US Department of Agriculture, 20% of the men and 76% of the women had an elevated waist-to-hip ratio. Sedentary behavior was associated with elevated waist-to-hip ratio in men, while a similar excess was associated with alcohol consumption in women. Weak, nonsignificant associations with waist-to-hip ratio were observed for smoking. Socioeconomic status was unrelated to waist-to-hip ratio in men, but it had a strong inverse relation for women.

Prognostic factors associated with recurrence in clinical stage I adenocarcinoma of the endometrium

Two hundred sixty-four consecutive patients with clinical stage I endometrial adenocarcinoma who underwent primary surgical therapy between July 1979 and August 1988 were followed prospectively and evaluated for disease recurrence for 8-112 months (mean 51.5). Thirty-three patients (12.5%) developed recurrence or died of disease. In univariate statistical analysis, prognostic factors significantly associated with disease recurrence were as follows: age (mean 68.6 years with versus 60.3 years without recurrence; P = .0001); histology (adenocarcinoma 8.8%, adenosquamous 35.7%, papillary 25%, clear-cell 57.1%; P less than .0001); tumor grade (grade 1, 7.7%, grade 2, 10.5%, grade 3, 36.1%; P less than .0001); depth of myometrial invasion (none 9.8%, less than one-half 7.4%, one-half or greater 29.6%; P = .0001); lymph node status (negative 8.3%, positive 47.6%; P less than .0001); non-nodal extrauterine disease spread (absent 11.0%, present 50%; P = .0003); peritoneal cytology (negative 9.4%, positive 26.3%; P = .004), and tumor size (2 cm or less 7%, greater than 2 cm 17.3%; P = .05). Cervical extension and uterine size had no significant effect on recurrence. Using multivariate analysis, grade 3 tumor (P = .002), advancing age (P = .004), lymph node metastasis (P = .006), and presence of extrauterine disease spread other than lymph node metastasis (P = .038) were the only variables significantly associated with disease recurrence or death. This study supports the new International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics surgical staging system for endometrial cancer.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Carbachol modulates GIP-mediated insulin release from rat pancreatic lobules in vitro

Rat pancreatic lobules were used to investigate the interaction of gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP), carbachol, glucose, and an amino acid mixture on insulin secretion. At 5 mM glucose, GIP (1.1 ng/ml) did not augment insulin secretion in the presence or absence of carbachol (5 X 10(-5)M) during a 210-min incubation. However, at 11 mM glucose, GIP did augment insulin secretion in the presence (342.5 +/- 62.0 vs. 212.5 +/- 50.5 microU . ml-1 . mg tissue-1, mean +/- SE; P less than 0.01) but not the absence (217.0 +/- 45.5 vs. 205.8 +/- 35.0 microU . ml-1 . mg tissue-1) of carbachol. During subsequent 30-min incubations, GIP was increased to a supra-physiological concentration of 11 ng/ml and again augmented insulin secretion with (65.8 +/- 10.8 vs. 27.8 +/- 2.4 microU . ml-1 . mg tissue-1 . h-1; P less than 0.001) but not without (37.2 +/- 1.8 vs. 30.2 +/- 2 microU . ml-1 . mg-1 tissue-1 . h-1) carbachol present. This GIP-mediated insulin secretion was blocked by atropine (34.8 to 1.8 vs. 37.6 +/- 1.6 microU . ml-1 . mg tissue-1 . h-1). At amino acid concentrations of 21 and 211 mM, but not 2.1 mM, GIP augmented insulin release but again only with carbachol present. In conclusion, porcine GIP augments amino acid as well as glucose-mediated insulin secretion in vitro. Furthermore, this biological action is dependent on an, as yet, unidentified cholinergic mechanism. The pathophysiological significance of the neural-hormonal interaction deserves further investigation.