A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. II. Validation of species distribution and seasonal variations

Impact of aerial humidity on seasonal malaria: an ecological study in Zambia

Background

Seasonal patterns of malaria cases in many parts of Africa are generally associated with rainfall, yet in the dry seasons, malaria transmission declines but does not always cease. It is important to understand what conditions support these periodic cases. Aerial moisture is thought to be important for mosquito survival and ability to forage, but its role during the dry seasons has not been well studied. During the dry season aerial moisture is minimal, but intermittent periods may arise from the transpiration of peri-domestic trees or from some other sources in the environment. These periods may provide conditions to sustain pockets of mosquitoes that become active and forage, thereby transmitting malaria. In this work, humidity along with other ecological variables that may impact malaria transmission have been examined.

Methods

Negative binomial regression models were used to explore the association between peri-domestic tree humidity and local malaria incidence. This was done using sensitive temperature and humidity loggers in the rural Southern Province of Zambia over three consecutive years. Additional variables including rainfall, temperature and elevation were also explored.

Results

A negative binomial model with no lag was found to best fit the malaria cases for the full year in the evaluated sites of the Southern Province of Zambia. Local tree and granary night-time humidity and temperature were found to be associated with local health centre-reported incidence of malaria, while rainfall and elevation did not significantly contribute to this model. A no lag and one week lag model for the dry season alone also showed a significant effect of humidity, but not temperature, elevation, or rainfall.

Conclusion

The study has shown that throughout the dry season, periodic conditions of sustained humidity occur that may permit foraging by resting mosquitoes, and these periods are associated with increased incidence of malaria cases. These results shed a light on conditions that impact the survival of the common malaria vector species, Anopheles arabiensis, in arid seasons and suggests how they emerge to forage when conditions permit.

Repellent activity against Anopheles gambiae of the leaves of nesting trees in the Sebitoli chimpanzee community of Kibale National Park, Uganda

BACKGROUND

Every evening, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) build a sleeping platform so called "nest" by intertwining branches of tree. Most of chimpanzees' communities studied have a preference for tree species in which they nest. As female mosquitoes are feeding on the blood of their host at nighttime, chimpanzees may prevent being disturbed and bitten by mosquitoes by selecting tree species having properties to repel them.

METHODS

To test the hypothesis that chimpanzees choose tree species for their aromatic properties, data related to 1,081 nesting trees built between 2017 and 2019 in the Sebitoli community of Kibale National Park (Uganda) were analysed. The 10 most used trees were compared to the 10 most common trees in the habitat that were not preferred for nesting. Leaves from the 20 trees species were collected and hydro-distillated to obtain essential oils and one of the by-products for behavioural bioassays against females of the African mosquito, Anopheles gambiae.

RESULTS

Sebitoli chimpanzees showed tree preferences: 10 species correspond to more than 80% of the nesting trees. Out of the essential oil obtained from the 10 nesting trees, 7 extracts for at least one concentration tested showed spatial repellency, 7 were irritant by contact and none were toxic. In the other hand, for the abundant trees in their habitat not used by chimpanzees, only 3 were repellent and 5 irritants.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

This study contributes to evidence that chimpanzees, to avoid annoying mosquitoes, may select their nesting trees according to their repellent properties (linked to chemical parameters), a potential inspiration for human health.

Use of transcriptional age grading technique to determine the chronological age of Sri Lankan Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus females

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are important vectors of human diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika. In Sri Lanka, they have been responsible for transmitting dengue virus. One of the most important parameters influencing the likelihood of arbovirus transmission is the age structure of the mosquito population. However, mosquito age is difficult to measure with accuracy. This study aims to construct multivariate calibration models using the transcriptional abundance of three age-responsive genes: Ae15848 (calcium-binding protein), Ae8505 (structural component of cuticle), and Ae4274 (fizzy cell cycle/cell division cycle 20).

METHODS

The transcriptional age-grading technique was applied to determine the chronological age of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus female mosquito populations from Sri Lanka using the age-responsive genes Ae15848, Ae8505, and Ae4274. Furthermore, Ae. aegypti samples obtained from colonies reared at two temperatures (23 and 27 °C) were used to investigate the influence of temperature on this age-grading technique. Expression levels of these three genes were quantified using reverse transcription qualitative PCR (qRT-PCR), and results were normalized against the housekeeping gene ribosomal gene S17 (RpS17).

RESULTS

The expression of Ae15848 and Ae8505 decreased with the age of mosquitoes and showed the most significant and consistent change while expression of Ae4274 increased with age. The multivariate calibration models showed > 80% correlation between expression of these age-responsive genes and the age of female mosquitoes at both temperatures. At 27 °C the accuracy of age predictions using the models was 2.19 (± 1.66) days and 2.58 (± 2.06) days for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus females, respectively. The accuracy of the model for Ae. aegypti at 23 °C was 3.42 (± 2.74) days.

CONCLUSIONS

An adult rearing temperature difference of 4 °C (23-27 °C) did not significantly affect the age predictions. The calibration models created during this study could be successfully used to estimate the age of wild Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes from Sri Lanka.

Modelling the persistence of mosquito vectors of malaria in Burkina Faso

Background

Populations of the Anopheles gambiae complex are found during the rainy season throughout West Africa, even in arid areas with long dry seasons during which mosquitoes appear to be absent. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this apparent paradox, including aestivation, dispersal between neighbouring settlements, and long distance migration using high-altitude wind currents.

Methods

An individual-based, spatially explicit model of mosquito populations was developed for a region of West Africa centred on, and including all of, Burkina Faso. Populations associated with human settlements were linked by dispersal and the model incorporated geospatial data on the distribution of settlements, water bodies and rainfall.

Results

Local dispersal (at rates consistent with experimental data) was necessary to explain observed patterns of rainy season populations across all of the simulation area, but by itself failed to account for the presence of populations in the arid North (the Sahel). The presence of rare dry-season larval sites could explain these northern populations, but seems inconsistent with field surveys. Aestivation by female mosquitoes explained rainy-season populations in all but the very sparsest and driest areas of human habitation, while long-distance migration based on annual wind patterns could account for all observed populations.

Conclusions

Modelling studies such as this can help assess the potential validity of different hypotheses and suggest priority areas for experimental study. In particular, the results highlight a shortage of empirical research on mosquito dispersal between neighbouring settlements, which may be critically important to the continued presence of many mosquito populations in West Africa. Further research that establishes the extent to which mosquitoes aestivate, and migrate using high altitude winds, is also much needed to understand Sahelian mosquito populations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2288-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A geo-coded inventory of anophelines in the Afrotropical Region south of the Sahara: 1898-2016

Background: Understanding the distribution of anopheline vectors of malaria is an important prelude to the design of national malaria control and elimination programmes. A single, geo-coded continental inventory of anophelines using all available published and unpublished data has not been undertaken since the 1960s. Methods: We have searched African, European and World Health Organization archives to identify unpublished reports on anopheline surveys in 48 sub-Saharan Africa countries. This search was supplemented by identification of reports that formed part of post-graduate theses, conference abstracts, regional insecticide resistance databases and more traditional bibliographic searches of peer-reviewed literature. Finally, a check was made against two recent repositories of dominant malaria vector species locations ( circa 2,500). Each report was used to extract information on the survey dates, village locations (geo-coded to provide a longitude and latitude), sampling methods, species identification methods and all anopheline species found present during the survey. Survey records were collapsed to a single site over time.    Results: The search strategy took years and resulted in 13,331 unique, geo-coded survey locations of anopheline vector occurrence between 1898 and 2016. A total of 12,204 (92%) sites reported the presence of 10 dominant vector species/sibling species; 4,473 (37%) of these sites were sampled since 2005. 4,442 (33%) sites reported at least one of 13 possible secondary vector species; 1,107 (25%) of these sites were sampled since 2005. Distributions of dominant and secondary vectors conform to previous descriptions of the ecological ranges of these vectors. Conclusion: We have assembled the largest ever geo-coded database of anophelines in Africa, representing a legacy dataset for future updating and identification of knowledge gaps at national levels. The geo-coded database is available on Harvard Dataverse as a reference source for African national malaria control programmes planning their future control and elimination strategies.

Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia

Background

This paper studies the effect of mosquito abundance and malaria incidence in the last 3 weeks, and their interaction, on the hazard of time to malaria in a previously studied cohort of children in Ethiopia.

Methods

We model the mosquito abundance and time to malaria data jointly in a Bayesian framework.

Results

We found that the interaction of mosquito abundance and incidence plays a prominent role on malaria risk. We quantify and compare relative risks of various factors, and determine the predominant role of the interaction between incidence and mosquito abundance in describing malaria risk. Seasonal rain patterns, distance to a water source of the households, temperature and relative humidity are all significant in explaining mosquito abundance, and through this affect malaria risk.

Conclusion

Analyzing jointly the time to malaria data and the mosquito abundance allows a precise comparison of factors affecting the spread of malaria. The effect of the interaction between mosquito abundances and local presence of malaria parasites has an important effect on the hazard of time to malaria, beyond abundance alone. Each additional one km away from the dam gives an average reduction of malaria relative risk of 5.7%. The importance of the interaction between abundance and incidence leads to the hypothesis that preventive intervention could advantageously target the infectious population, in addition to mosquito control, which is the typical intervention today.

Modeling and analyzing the impact of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics over Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa

Malaria parasites are strongly dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; for this reason, mosquito population dynamics are a crucial determinant of malaria risk. However, temperature and rainfall play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. In this study, we develop a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model to analyze how rainfall and temperature determine mosquito population size. In the model, we consider in detail the influence of ambient temperature on gonotrophic and sporogonic cycles over Amajuba District, Kwazulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, we further use the model to simulate the spatial distribution of the mosquito biting rate over the study region. Our results reflect high seasonality of the population of An. gambiae over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the mosquito population dynamics.

Temperature during larval development and adult maintenance influences the survival of Anopheles gambiae s.s

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission depends on vector life-history parameters and population dynamics, and particularly on the survival of adult Anopheles mosquitoes. These dynamics are sensitive to climatic and environmental factors, and temperature is a particularly important driver. Data currently exist on the influence of constant and fluctuating adult environmental temperature on adult Anopheles gambiae s.s. survival and on the effect of larval environmental temperature on larval survival, but none on how larval temperature affects adult life-history parameters.

METHODS

Mosquito larvae and pupae were reared individually at different temperatures (23 ± 1°C, 27 ± 1°C, 31 ± 1°C, and 35 ± 1°C), 75 ± 5% relative humidity. Upon emergence into imagoes, individual adult females were either left at their larval temperature or placed at a different temperature within the range above. Survival was monitored every 24 hours and data were analysed using non-parametric and parametric methods. The Gompertz distribution fitted the survivorship data better than the gamma, Weibull, and exponential distributions overall and was adopted to describe mosquito mortality rates.

RESULTS

Increasing environmental temperature during the larval stages decreased larval survival (p < 0.001). Increases of 4°C (from 23°C to 27°C, 27°C to 31°C, and 31°C to 35°C), 8°C (27°C to 35°C) and 12°C (23°C to 35°C) statistically significantly increased larval mortality (p < 0.001). Higher environmental temperature during the adult stages significantly lowered adult survival overall (p < 0.001), with increases of 4°C and 8°C significantly influencing survival (p < 0.001). Increasing the larval environment temperature also significantly increased adult mortality overall (p < 0.001): a 4°C increase (23°C to 27°C) did not significantly affect adult survival (p > 0.05), but an 8°C increase did (p < 0.05). The effect of a 4°C increase in larval temperature from 27°C to 31°C depended on the adult environmental temperature. The data also suggest that differences between the temperatures of the larval and adult environments affects adult mosquito survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Environmental temperature affects Anopheles survival directly during the juvenile and adult stages, and indirectly, since temperature during larval development significantly influences adult survival. These results will help to parameterise more reliable mathematical models investigating the potential impact of temperature and global warming on malaria transmission.

Islands and stepping-stones: comparative population structure of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis in Tanzania and implications for the spread of insecticide resistance

Population genetic structures of the two major malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis, differ markedly across Sub-Saharan Africa, which could reflect differences in historical demographies or in contemporary gene flow. Elucidation of the degree and cause of population structure is important for predicting the spread of genetic traits such as insecticide resistance genes or artificially engineered genes. Here the population genetics of An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis in the central, eastern and island regions of Tanzania were compared. Microsatellite markers were screened in 33 collections of female An. gambiae s.l., originating from 22 geographical locations, four of which were sampled in two or three years between 2008 and 2010. An. gambiae were sampled from six sites, An. arabiensis from 14 sites, and both species from two sites, with an additional colonised insectary sample of each species. Frequencies of the knock-down resistance (kdr) alleles 1014S and 1014F were also determined. An. gambiae exhibited relatively high genetic differentiation (average pairwise FST = 0.131), significant even between nearby samples, but without clear geographical patterning. In contrast, An. arabiensis exhibited limited differentiation (average FST = 0.015), but strong isolation-by-distance (Mantel test r = 0.46, p = 0.0008). Most time-series samples of An. arabiensis were homogeneous, suggesting general temporal stability of the genetic structure. An. gambiae populations from Dar es Salaam and Bagamoyo were found to have high frequencies of kdr 1014S (around 70%), with almost 50% homozygote but was at much lower frequency on Unguja Island, with no. An. gambiae population genetic differentiation was consistent with an island model of genetic structuring with highly restricted gene flow, contrary to An. arabiensis which was consistent with a stepping-stone model of extensive, but geographically-restricted gene flow.

A comparison of five malaria transmission models: benchmark tests and implications for disease control

Background

Models for malaria transmission are usually compared based on the quantities tracked, the form taken by each term in the equations, and the qualitative properties of the systems at equilibrium. Here five models are compared in detail in order to develop a set of performance measures that further illuminate the differences among models.

Methods

Five models of malaria transmission are compared. Parameters are adjusted to correspond to similar biological quantities across models. Nine choices of parameter sets/initial conditions are tested for all five models. The relationship between malaria incidence in humans and (1) malaria incidence in vectors, (2) man-biting rate, and (3) entomological inoculation rate (EIR) at equilibrium is tested for all models. A sensitivity analysis for all models is conducted at all parameter sets. Overall sensitivities are ranked for each of the five models. A set of simple control interventions is tested on two of the models.

Results

Four of these models behave consistently over a set of nine choices of parameters and initial conditions, with one behaving significantly differently. Two of the models do not match reported entomological inoculation rate data well. The sensitivity profiles, although consistently having similar top parameters, vary not only between models but among choices of parameters and initial conditions. A numerical experiment on two of the models illustrates the effect of these differences on control strategies, showing significant differences between models in predicting which of the control measures are more effective.

Conclusions

A set of benchmark tests based on performance measures are developed to be used on any proposed malaria transmission model to test its overall behaviour in comparison to both other models and data sets.

Cattle and climate in Africa: How climate variability has influenced national cattle holdings from 1961-2008

The role of cattle in developing countries is as a source of high-quality food, as draft animals, and as a source of manure and fuel. Cattle represent important contribution to household incomes, and in drought prone areas they can act as an insurance against weather risk. So far, no studies have addressed how historical variations in temperature and rainfall have influenced cattle populations in Africa. The focus of this study is to assess the historical impact of climate variability on national cattle holdings. We reconstruct the cattle density and distribution for two time periods; 1955-1960 and 2000-2005. Based on estimates from FAO and official numbers, we generated a time series of cattle densities from 1961-2008, and compared these data with precipitation and temperature anomalies for the same period. We show that from 1961-2008 rainfall and temperature have been modulating, and occasionally controlling, the number of cattle in Africa.