The spatial and temporal patterns of falciparum and vivax malaria in Perú: 1994-2006

Examining geographical inequalities for malaria outcomes and spending on malaria in 40 malaria-endemic countries, 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

While substantial gains have been made in the fight against malaria over the past 20 years, malaria morbidity and mortality are marked by inequality. The equitable elimination of malaria within countries will be determined in part by greater spending on malaria interventions, and how those investments are allocated. This study aims to identify potential drivers of malaria outcome inequality and to demonstrate how spending through different mechanisms might lead to greater health equity.

METHODS

Using the Gini index, subnational estimates of malaria incidence and mortality rates from 2010 to 2020 were used to quantify the degree of inequality in malaria burden within countries with incidence rates above 5000 cases per 100,000 people in 2020. Estimates of Gini indices represent within-country distributions of disease burden, with high values corresponding to inequitable distributions of malaria burden within a country. Time series analyses were used to quantify associations of malaria inequality with malaria spending, controlling for country socioeconomic and population characteristics.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2020, varying levels of inequality in malaria burden within malaria-endemic countries was found. In 2020, values of the Gini index ranged from 0.06 to 0.73 for incidence, 0.07 to 0.73 for mortality, and 0.00 to 0.36 for case fatality. Greater total malaria spending, spending on health systems strengthening for malaria, healthcare access and quality, and national malaria incidence were associated with reductions in malaria outcomes inequality within countries. In addition, government expenditure on malaria, aggregated government and donor spending on treatment, and maternal educational attainment were also associated with changes in malaria outcome inequality among countries with the greatest malaria burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this study suggest that prioritizing health systems strengthening in malaria spending and malaria spending in general especially from governments will help to reduce inequality of the malaria burden within countries. Given heterogeneity in outcomes in countries currently fighting to control malaria, and the challenges in increasing both domestic and international funding allocated to control and eliminate malaria, the efficient targeting of limited resources is critical to attain global malaria eradication goals.

Disentangling the seasonality effects of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon basin

The evidence of seasonal patterns in malaria epidemiology in the Brazilian Amazon basin indicates the need for a thorough investigation of seasonality in this last and heterogeneous region. Additionally, since these patterns are linked to climate variables, malaria models should also incorporate them. This study applies wavelet analysis to incidence data from 2003 to 2020 in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-Malaria) database. A mathematical model with climate-dependent parametrization is proposed to study counts of malaria cases over time based on notification data, temperature and rainfall. The wavelet analysis reveals marked seasonality in states Amazonas and Amapá throughout the study period, and from 2003 to 2012 in Pará. However, these patterns are not as marked in other states such as Acre and Pará in more recent years. The wavelet coherency analysis indicates a strong association between incidence and temperature, especially for the municipalities of Macapá and Manaus, and a similar association for rainfall. The mathematical model fits well with the observed temporal trends in both municipalities. Studies on climate-dependent mathematical models provide a good assessment of the baseline epidemiology of malaria. Additionally, the understanding of seasonality effects and the application of models have great potential as tools for studying interventions for malaria control.

Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective

BACKGROUND

Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced influencing factors on the epidemic of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is of great significance for formulating disease control policies tailored to regional-specific needs, yet the knowledge is very limited. We aim to identify and further quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on HFMD dynamics.

METHODS

We collected monthly province-level HFMD incidence and related environmental and socioeconomic data in China during 2009-2018. Hierarchical Bayesian models were constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal relationships between regional HFMD and various covariates: linear and nonlinear effects for environmental covariates, and linear effects for socioeconomic covariates.

RESULTS

The spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases was highly heterogeneous, indicated by the Lorenz curves and the corresponding Gini indices. The peak time (R2 = 0.65, P = 0.009), annual amplitude (R2 = 0.94, P<0.001), and semi-annual periodicity contribution (R2 = 0.88, P<0.001) displayed marked latitudinal gradients in Central China region. The most likely cluster areas for HFMD were located in south China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hainan) from April 2013 to October 2017. The Bayesian models achieved the best predictive performance (R2 = 0.87, P<0.001). We found significant nonlinear associations between monthly average temperature, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index and HFMD transmission. Besides, population density (RR = 1.261; 95%CI, 1.169-1.353), birth rate (RR = 1.058; 95%CI, 1.025-1.090), real GDP per capita (RR = 1.163; 95%CI, 1.033-1.310) and school vacation (RR = 0.507; 95%CI, 0.459-0.559) were identified to have positive or negative effects on HFMD respectively. Our model could successfully predict months with HFMD outbreaks versus non-outbreaks in provinces of China from Jan 2009 to Dec 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the importance of refined spatial and temporal data, as well as environmental and socioeconomic information, on HFMD transmission dynamics. The spatiotemporal analysis framework may provide insights into adjusting regional interventions to local conditions and temporal variations in broader natural and social sciences.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 deletions in Peru

Peru was the first country where pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions were detected despite the fact that rapid diagnostics tests are not commonly used for confirmatory malaria diagnosis. This context provides a unique scenario to study the dynamics of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions without apparent RDTs selection pressure. In this study we characterized the presence of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes on 325 P. falciparum samples collected in Iquitos and surrounding communities between 2011 and 2018 in order to understand the dynamics of gene deletion prevalence, potential associations with clinical symptomatology and parasite genetic background. P. falciparum presence was confirmed by microscopy and PCR of 18 s rRNA, pfmsp1 and pfmsp2. Gene deletions were assessed by amplification of exon1 and exon2 of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 using gene specific PCRs. Confirmation of absence of HRP2 expression was assessed by ELISA of HRP2 and pLDH. Genotyping of 254 samples were performed using a panel of seven neutral microsatellite markers. Overall, pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 dual gene deletions were detected in 67% (217/324) parasite samples. Concordance between pfhrp2 deletion and negligible HRP2 protein levels was observed (Cohen's Kappa = 0.842). Prevalence of gene deletions was heterogeneous across study sites (adjusted p < 0.005) but there is an overall tendency towards increase through time in the prevalence of dual pfhrp2/3-deleted parasites between 2011 (14.3%) and 2016 (88.39%) stabilizing around 65% in 2018. Dual deletions increase was associated with dominance of a single new parasite haplotype (H8) which rapidly spread to all study sites during the 8 study years. Interestingly, participants infected with dual pfhrp2/3-deleted parasites had a significantly lower parasitemias than those without gene deletions in this cohort. Our study showed the increase of pfhrp2/3 deletions in the absence of RDTs pressure and a clonal replacement of circulating lines in the Peruvian Amazon basin. These results suggest that other factors linked to the pfhrp2/3 deletion provide a selective advantage over non-deleted strains and highlight the need for additional studies and continuing surveillance.

Spatiotemporal variation of malaria incidence in parasite clearance interventions and non-intervention areas in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

Background

In Ethiopia, malaria remains a major public health problem. To eliminate malaria, parasite clearance interventions were implemented in six kebeles (the lowest administrative unit) in the Amhara region. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria is essential for targeting appropriate parasite clearance interventions to achieve the elimination goal. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria incidence in the intervention and non-intervention areas. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of community-based malaria in the intervention and non-intervention kebeles between 2013 and 2018 in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.

Methods

Malaria data from 212 kebeles in eight districts were downloaded from the District Health Information System2 (DHIS2) database. We used Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to investigate seasonal variations; Anselin Local Moran’s I statistical analysis to detect hotspot and cold spot clusters of malaria cases; and a discrete Poisson model using Kulldorff scan statistics to identify statistically significant clusters of malaria cases.

Results

The result showed that the reduction in the trend of malaria incidence was higher in the intervention areas compared to the non-intervention areas during the study period with a slope of -0.044 (-0.064, -0.023) and -0.038 (-0.051, -0.024), respectively. However, the difference was not statistically significant. The Global Moran’s I statistics detected the presence of malaria clusters (z-score = 12.05; p<0.001); the Anselin Local Moran’s I statistics identified hotspot malaria clusters at 21 locations in Gendawuha and Metema districts. A statistically significant spatial, temporal, and space-time cluster of malaria cases were detected. Most likely type of spatial clusters of malaria cases (LLR = 195501.5; p <0.001) were detected in all kebeles of Gendawuha and Metema districts. The temporal scan statistic identified three peak periods between September 2013 and November 2015 (LLR = 8727.5; p<0.001). Statistically significant most-likely type of space-time clusters of malaria cases (LLR = 97494.3; p<0.001) were detected at 22 locations from June 2014 to November 2016 in Metema district.

Conclusion

There was a significant decline in malaria incidence in the intervention areas. There were statistically significant spatiotemporal variations of malaria in the study areas. Applying appropriate parasite clearance interventions is highly recommended for the better achievement of the elimination goal. A more rigorous evaluation of the impact of parasite clearance interventions is recommended.

How heterogeneous is the dengue transmission profile in Brazil? A study in six Brazilian states

Dengue is a vector-borne disease present in most tropical countries, infecting an average of 50 to 100 million people per year. Socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors directly influence the transmission cycle of the dengue virus (DENV). In Brazil, these factors vary between regions producing different profiles of dengue transmission and challenging the epidemiological surveillance of the disease. In this article, we aimed at classifying the profiles of dengue transmission in 1,823 Brazilian municipalities, covering different climates, from 2010 to 2019. Time series data of dengue cases were obtained from six states: Ceará and Maranhão in the semiarid Northeast, Minas Gerais in the countryside, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro in the tropical Atlantic coast, and Paraná in the subtropical region. To describe the time series, we proposed a set of epi-features of the magnitude and duration of the dengue epidemic cycles, totaling 13 indicators. Using these epi-features as inputs, a multivariate cluster algorithm was employed to classify the municipalities according to their dengue transmission profile. Municipalities were classified into four distinct dengue transmission profiles: persistent transmission (7.8%), epidemic (21.3%), episodic/epidemic (43.2%), and episodic transmission (27.6%). Different profiles were associated with the municipality’s population size and climate. Municipalities with higher incidence and larger populations tended to be classified as persistent transmission, suggesting the existence of critical community size. This association, however, varies depending on the state, indicating the importance of other factors. The proposed classification is useful for developing more specific and precise surveillance protocols for regions with different dengue transmission profiles, as well as more precise public policies for dengue prevention.

Dengue is one of the fastest-growing vector-borne diseases in the world. Currently, vaccines are experimental and are not very effective, so prevention depends on the control of the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Health promotion campaigns aimed at encouraging people to reduce mosquito breeding sites have limited effect. In addition, the heterogeneity of the territories that have dengue becomes a major challenge for the epidemiological surveillance of the disease. Brazil has a territory of continental size, and single standardized surveillance is not very effective for monitoring this arbovirus. Classifying types of dengue dynamics based on features of the epidemiological cycle in each location has the potential to increase the precision of surveillance and control strategies. In our study, we were able to classify areas according to different dengue transmission profiles, ranging from episodic to persistent transmission. These results can provide tools to guide actions aimed at achieving the World Health Organization’s goals of eliminating neglected tropical diseases in countries that have the virus.

Time-Varying Effects of Meteorological Variables on Malaria Epidemiology in the Context of Interrupted Control Efforts in the Amazon Rainforest, 2000-2017

Successful malaria control interventions, mostly based on the training of health workers, distribution of insecticide-treated nets, and spraying, decrease malaria incidence; however, when these interventions are interrupted, a resurgence may occur. In the Peruvian Amazon, after discontinuing the control activities implemented by the PAMAFRO project (2006–2010)-a Global Fund-sponsored project for the strengthening of malaria control and surveillance in multiple countries in Latin America– malaria cases re-emerged dramatically. In parallel, meteorological factors determine the conditions suitable for the development, reproduction, and survival of mosquito vectors and parasites. This study hypothesized that interruption of malaria interventions may have modified the meteorological-malaria relationships over time (i.e., temporal changes in the dose-response between meteorological variables and malaria incidence). In this panel data analysis, we assessed the extent that relationships between meteorological variables and malaria changed temporally using data of monthly malaria incidence due to Plasmodium vivax or P. falciparum in Loreto, Peru (2000–2017). Generalized additive models were used to explore how the effects of meteorological variables changed in magnitude before, during, and after the PAMAFRO intervention. We found that once the PAMAFRO intervention had been interrupted, the estimated effects (dose-response) of meteorological variables on incidence rates decreased for both malaria parasite species. However, these fitted effect estimates did not reach their baseline levels (before the PAMAFRO period); variations of time-varying slopes between 0.45 and 2.07 times were observed after the PAMAFRO intervention. We also reported significant heterogeneity in the geographical distributions of malaria, parasite species, and meteorological variables. High malaria transmission occurred consistently in the northwestern provinces of Loreto Department. Since the end of the PAMAFRO period, a higher effect of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration was described on P. falciparum compared to P. vivax. The effect of temperature on malaria was greater over a shorter time (1-month lag or less), compared with precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (12-month lag). These findings demonstrate the importance of sustained malaria control efforts since interruption may enhance the links between meteorological factors and malaria. Our results also emphasize the importance of considering the time-varying effect of meteorological factors on malaria incidence to tailor control interventions, especially to better manage the current and future climate change crisis.

The clinical-epidemiological profile of malaria patients from Southern Venezuela, a critical hotspot in Latin America

Background

Venezuela accounted for 55% of the cases and 73% of the malaria deaths in the Americas in 2019. Bolivar state, in the southeast, contributes > 60% of the country's Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum cases every year. This study describes the clinical–epidemiological characteristics of clinical malaria patients in this high-transmission area.

Methods

A prospective study was conducted on patients seeking medical attention in three medical centres in the state capital, Ciudad Bolivar, between June and October 2018. Malaria diagnosis was carried out using microscopy following national standards. Malaria-positive patients were examined for clinical symptoms, and haematological tests were performed at the time of diagnosis. Patients were followed up by telephone to evaluate malaria recurrences.

Results

Out of 287 patients, 200 (69.7%) were positive for P. vivax, 69 (24%) for P. falciparum, and 18 (6.3%) had mixed (P. vivax/P. falciparum) infections. Patients' median age was 33 years (IQR 20), 168 (69%) were men, and 40% practiced gold mining as the main occupation. Fever (96.5%), chills (91.3%), and headaches (90.6%) were the most frequent symptoms. At least one symptom associated with severe malaria was observed in 69 out of 161 patients with complete clinical evaluation (42.9%). Plasmodium vivax infections were found in 42 out of 69 (60.9%) severe cases; by contrast, P. falciparum and mixed malaria caused 34.8% (24/69) and 4.4% (3/69) of infections, respectively. Two patients died of cerebral malaria. Mean hemoglobin was lower in the patients infected with P. falciparum than those infected with P. vivax. Regardless of the parasite causing the infection, patients presented high levels of total bilirubin, aminotransferases (AST, ALT), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). Out of the 142 patients followed up by phone for three months (49.5% of the 287 patients), 35 (24.7%) reported recurrences.

Conclusions

The high malaria prevalence among young male adults practicing gold mining suggests that this occupation is a significant risk factor. The unexpected high prevalence of P. vivax patients with at least one criteria of severe clinical disease is a matter of concern. Whether it is the result of a lack of timely diagnosis and effective treatment should be explored.

The epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax among adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Reports of P. vivax infections among Duffy-negative hosts have accumulated throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this growing body of evidence, no nationally representative epidemiological surveys of P. vivax in sub-Saharan Africa have been performed. To overcome this gap in knowledge, we screened over 17,000 adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for P. vivax using samples from the 2013-2014 Demographic Health Survey. Overall, we found a 2.97% (95% CI: 2.28%, 3.65%) prevalence of P. vivax infections across the DRC. Infections were associated with few risk-factors and demonstrated a relatively flat distribution of prevalence across space with focal regions of relatively higher prevalence in the north and northeast. Mitochondrial genomes suggested that DRC P. vivax were distinct from circulating non-human ape strains and an ancestral European P. vivax strain, and instead may be part of a separate contemporary clade. Our findings suggest P. vivax is diffusely spread across the DRC at a low prevalence, which may be associated with long-term carriage of low parasitemia, frequent relapses, or a general pool of infections with limited forward propagation.

Estimated impact of tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax control and elimination in Brazil: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Despite recent intensification of control measures, Plasmodium vivax poses a major challenge for malaria elimination efforts. Liver-stage hypnozoite parasites that cause relapsing infections can be cleared with primaquine; however, poor treatment adherence undermines drug effectiveness. Tafenoquine, a new single-dose treatment, offers an alternative option for preventing relapses and reducing transmission. In 2018, over 237,000 cases of malaria were reported to the Brazilian health system, of which 91.5% were due to P. vivax.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated the impact of introducing tafenoquine into case management practices on population-level transmission dynamics using a mathematical model of P. vivax transmission. The model was calibrated to reflect the transmission dynamics of P. vivax endemic settings in Brazil in 2018, informed by nationwide malaria case reporting data. Parameters for treatment pathways with chloroquine, primaquine, and tafenoquine with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) testing were informed by clinical trial data and the literature. We assumed 71.3% efficacy for primaquine and tafenoquine, a 66.7% adherence rate to the 7-day primaquine regimen, a mean 5.5% G6PDd prevalence, and 8.1% low metaboliser prevalence. The introduction of tafenoquine is predicted to improve effective hypnozoite clearance among P. vivax cases and reduce population-level transmission over time, with heterogeneous levels of impact across different transmission settings. According to the model, while achieving elimination in only few settings in Brazil, tafenoquine rollout in 2021 is estimated to improve the mean effective radical cure rate from 42% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 41%-44%) to 62% (95% UI 54%-68%) among clinical cases, leading to a predicted 38% (95% UI 7%-99%) reduction in transmission and over 214,000 cumulative averted cases between 2021 and 2025. Higher impact is predicted in settings with low transmission, low pre-existing primaquine adherence, and a high proportion of cases in working-aged males. High-transmission settings with a high proportion of cases in children would benefit from a safe high-efficacy tafenoquine dose for children. Our methodological limitations include not accounting for the role of imported cases from outside the transmission setting, relying on reported clinical cases as a measurement of community-level transmission, and implementing treatment efficacy as a binary condition.

CONCLUSIONS

In our modelling study, we predicted that, provided there is concurrent rollout of G6PDd diagnostics, tafenoquine has the potential to reduce P. vivax transmission by improving effective radical cure through increased adherence and increased protection from new infections. While tafenoquine alone may not be sufficient for P. vivax elimination, its introduction will improve case management, prevent a substantial number of cases, and bring countries closer to achieving malaria elimination goals.

Malaria in Southern Venezuela: The hottest hotspot in Latin America

Malaria elimination in Latin America is becoming an elusive goal. Malaria cases reached a historical ~1 million in 2017 and 2018, with Venezuela contributing 53% and 51% of those cases, respectively. Historically, malaria incidence in southern Venezuela has accounted for most of the country's total number of cases. The efficient deployment of disease prevention measures and prediction of disease spread to new regions requires an in-depth understanding of spatial heterogeneity on malaria transmission dynamics. Herein, we characterized the spatial epidemiology of malaria in southern Venezuela from 2007 through 2017 and described the extent to which malaria distribution has changed country-wide over the recent years. We found that disease transmission was focal and more prevalent in the southeast region of southern Venezuela where two persistent hotspots of Plasmodium vivax (76%) and P. falciparum (18%) accounted for ~60% of the total number of cases. Such hotspots are linked to deforestation as a consequence of illegal gold mining activities. Incidence has increased nearly tenfold over the last decade, showing an explosive epidemic growth due to a significant lack of disease control programs. Our findings highlight the importance of spatially oriented interventions to contain the ongoing malaria epidemic in Venezuela. This work also provides baseline epidemiological data to assess cross-border malaria dynamics and advocates for innovative control efforts in the Latin American region.

Malaria in Venezuela: changes in the complexity of infection reflects the increment in transmission intensity

Background

Malaria incidence has reached staggering numbers in Venezuela. Commonly, Bolívar State accounted for approximately 70% of the country cases every year. Most cases cluster in the Sifontes municipality, a region characterized by an extractive economy, including gold mining. An increase in migration to Sifontes, driven by gold mining, fueled a malaria spillover to the rest of the country and the region. Here samples collected in 2018 were compared with a previous study of 2003/2004 to describe changes in the parasites population structures and the frequency of point mutations linked to anti-malarial drugs.

Methods

A total of 88 Plasmodium falciparum and 94 Plasmodium vivax isolates were collected in 2018 and compared with samples from 2003/2004 (106 P. falciparum and 104 P. vivax). For P. falciparum, mutations linked to drug resistance (Pfdhfr, Pfdhps, and Pfcrt) and the Pfk13 gene associated with artemisinin delayed parasite clearance, were analysed. To estimate the multiplicity of infection (MOI), and perform P. falciparum and P. vivax population genetic analyses, the parasites were genotyped by using eight standardized microsatellite loci.

Results

The P. falciparum parasites are still harbouring drug-resistant mutations in Pfdhfr, Pfdhps, and Pfcrt. However, there was a decrease in the frequency of highly resistant Pfdhps alleles. Mutations associated with artemisinin delayed parasite clearance in the Pfk13 gene were not found. Consistent with the increase in transmission, polyclonal infections raised from 1.9% in 2003/2004 to 39% in 2018 in P. falciparum and from 16.3 to 68% in P. vivax. There is also a decrease in linkage disequilibrium. Bayesian clustering yields two populations linked to the time of sampling, showing that the parasite populations temporarily changed. However, the samples from 2003/2004 and 2018 have several alleles per locus in common without sharing multi-locus genotypes.

Conclusions

The frequency of mutations linked with drug resistance in P. falciparum shows only changes in Pfdhps. Observations presented here are consistent with an increase in transmission from the previously circulating parasites. Following populations longitudinally, using molecular surveillance, provides valuable information in cases such as Venezuela with a fluid malaria situation that is affecting the regional goals toward elimination.

Malaria Molecular Epidemiology: An Evolutionary Genetics Perspective

Malaria is a vector-borne disease that involves multiple parasite species in a variety of ecological settings. However, the parasite species causing the disease, the prevalence of subclinical infections, the emergence of drug resistance, the scale-up of interventions, and the ecological factors affecting malaria transmission, among others, are aspects that vary across areas where malaria is endemic. Such complexities have propelled the study of parasite genetic diversity patterns in the context of epidemiologic investigations. Importantly, molecular studies indicate that the time and spatial distribution of malaria cases reflect epidemiologic processes that cannot be fully understood without characterizing the evolutionary forces shaping parasite population genetic patterns. Although broad in scope, this review in the Microbiology Spectrum Curated Collection: Advances in Molecular Epidemiology highlights the need for understanding population genetic concepts when interpreting parasite molecular data. First, we discuss malaria complexity in terms of the parasite species involved. Second, we describe how molecular data are changing our understanding of malaria incidence and infectiousness. Third, we compare different approaches to generate parasite genetic information in the context of epidemiologically relevant questions related to malaria control. Finally, we describe a few Plasmodium genomic studies as evidence of how these approaches will provide new insights into the malaria disease dynamics. *This article is part of a curated collection.

Microsatellite analysis reveals connectivity among geographically distant transmission zones of Plasmodium vivax in the Peruvian Amazon: A critical barrier to regional malaria elimination

Despite efforts made over decades by the Peruvian government to eliminate malaria, Plasmodium vivax remains a challenge for public health decision-makers in the country. The uneven distribution of its incidence, plus its complex pattern of dispersion, has made ineffective control measures based on global information that lack the necessary detail to understand transmission fully. In this sense, population genetic tools can complement current surveillance. This study describes the genetic diversity and population structure from September 2012 to March 2015 in three geographically distant settlements, Cahuide (CAH), Lupuna (LUP) and Santa Emilia (STE), located in the Peruvian Amazon. A total 777 P. vivax mono-infections, out of 3264, were genotyped. Among study areas, LUP showed 19.7% of polyclonal infections, and its genetic diversity (H_exp) was 0.544. Temporal analysis showed a significant increment of polyclonal infections and H_exp, and the introduction and persistence of a new parasite population since March 2013. In STE, 40.1% of infections were polyclonal, with H_exp = 0.596. The presence of four genetic clusters without signals of clonal expansion and infections with lower parasite densities compared against the other two areas were also found. At least four parasite populations were present in CAH in 2012, where, after June 2014, malaria cases decreased from 213 to 61, concomitant with a decrease in polyclonal infections (from 0.286 to 0.18), and expectedly variable H_exp. Strong signals of gene flow were present in the study areas and wide geographic distribution of highly diverse parasite populations were found. This study suggests that movement of malaria parasites by human reservoirs connects geographically distant malaria transmission areas in the Peruvian Amazon. The maintenance of high levels of parasite genetic diversity through human mobility is a critical barrier to malaria elimination in this region.

Plasmodium vivax transmission is heterogeneous and discontinuous in the Peruvian Amazon. Such heterogeneity is the result of factors that include, but are not restricted to, the environment, public policies, and characteristics of the parasite, the vector, and human activities. All these factors make P. vivax transmission resilient to interventions. In order to achieve the goals of control and local elimination, P. vivax surveillance must inform how those factors sustain disease transmission in order to focalize and synchronize control strategies. In this study, we implemented molecular surveillance complemented with population genetic tools in the areas of Cahuide, Lupuna, and Santa Emilia located in the Peruvian Amazon. In particular, we characterize the transmission and the parasite genetic variation in these sites from September 2012 to March 2015. The changes in parasite diversity, the wide geographic dispersion of parasite subpopulation and the introduction of a new parasite clone or subpopulation in Lupuna documented in this study suggest that connectivity among the different endemic areas, likely due to human mobility, sustains disease transmission in the region hindering the success of control measures. This information must be considered in the design of current control strategies.

Negligible Impact of Mass Screening and Treatment on Mesoendemic Malaria Transmission at West Timor in Eastern Indonesia: A Cluster-Randomized Trial

Background

Mass screening and treatment (MST) aims to reduce malaria risk in communities by identifying and treating infected persons without regard to illness.

Methods

A cluster-randomized trial evaluated malaria incidence with and without MST. Clusters were randomized to 3, 2, or no MST interventions: MST3, 6 clusters (156 households/670 individuals); MST2, 5 clusters (89 households/423 individuals); and MST0, 5 clusters (174 households/777 individuals). All clusters completed the study with 14 residents withdrawing. In a cohort of 324 schoolchildren (MST3, n = 124; MST2, n = 57; MST0, n = 143) negative by microscopy at enrollment, we evaluated the incidence density of malaria during 3 months of MST and 3 months following. The MST intervention involved community-wide expert malaria microscopic screening and standard therapy with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and primaquine for glucose-6 phosphate dehydrogenase–normal subjects. All blood examinations included polymerase chain reaction assays, which did not guide on-site treatment.

Results

The risk ratios for incidence density of microscopically patent malaria in MST3 or MST2 relative to that in MST0 clusters were 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], .53–1.91) and 1.22 (95% CI, .42–3.55), respectively. Similar results were obtained with molecular analysis and species-specific (P. falciparum and P. vivax) infections. Microscopically subpatent, untreated infections accounted for 72% of those infected.

Conclusions

Two or 3 rounds of MST within 3 months did not impact the force of anopheline mosquito-borne infection in these communities. The high rate of untreated microscopically subpatent infections likely explains the observed poor impact.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT01878357.

Limited differentiation among Plasmodium vivax populations from the northwest and to the south Pacific Coast of Colombia: A malaria corridor?

Background

Malaria remains endemic in several countries of South America with low to moderate transmission intensity. Regional human migration through underserved endemic areas may be responsible for significant parasite dispersion making the disease resilient to interventions. Thus, the genetic characterization of malarial parasites is an important tool to assess how endemic areas may connect via the movement of infected individuals. Here, four sites in geographically separated areas reporting 80% of the malaria morbidity in Colombia were studied. The sites are located on an imaginary transect line of 1,500 km from the northwest to the south Pacific Coast of Colombia with a minimal distance of 500 km between populations that display noticeable ethnic, economic, epidemiological, and ecological differences.

Methodology/Principal findings

A total of 624 Plasmodium vivax samples from the four populations were genotyped by using eight microsatellite loci. Although a strong geographic structure was expected between these populations, only moderate evidence of genetic differentiation was observed using a suite of population genetic analyses. High genetic diversity, shared alleles, and low linkage disequilibrium were also found in these P. vivax populations providing no evidence for a bottleneck or clonal expansions as expected from recent reductions in the transmission that could have been the result of scaling up interventions or environmental changes. These patterns are consistent with a disease that is not only endemic in each site but also imply that there is gene flow among these populations across 1,500 km.

Conclusion /Significance

The observed patterns in P. vivax are consistent with a “corridor” where connected endemic areas can sustain a high level of genetic diversity locally and can restore parasite-subdivided populations via migration of infected individuals even after local interventions achieved a substantial reduction of clinical cases. The consequences of these findings in terms of control and elimination are discussed.

The regional movements of infected individuals that connect suitable transmission areas make malaria resilient to control efforts. Those movements are expected to leave genetic signatures in the parasite populations that can be detected using analytical tools. In this study, the genetic makeups of Plasmodium vivax populations were characterized to assess whether the most endemic areas in Colombia were connected. Samples were collected from passive surveillance studies in four locations across an imaginary transect line of 1,500 km from the northwest to the south Pacific Coast of Colombia (South America). Considering the distance, and contrary to expectations, we found weak levels of genetic differentiation between these parasite populations with no evidence indicating that their genetic diversity has been eroded as expected whenever the prevalence of the disease is successfully reduced, e.g., through control programs or environmental changes. Although the sampling lacks the geographic and temporal detail to describe how the dispersion of parasite lineages occurred, the observed patterns are consistent with a series of infected populations that are connected in space by human movements allowing the parasite to diffuse across this 1,500 km transect. This malaria corridor needs to be characterized to achieve elimination.

Variability in malaria cases and the association with rainfall and rivers water levels in Amazonas State, Brazil

Understanding the relations between rainfall and river water levels and malaria cases can provide important clues on modulation of the disease in the context of local climatic variability. In order to demonstrate how these relations can vary in the same endemic space, a coherence and wavelet phase analysis was performed between environmental and epidemiological variables from 2003 to 2010 for 8 municipalities (counties) in the state of Amazonas, Brazil (Barcelos, Borba, Canutama, Carauari, Coari, Eirunepé, Humaitá, and São Gabriel da Cachoeira). The results suggest significant coherences, mainly on the scale of annual variability, but scales of less than 1 year and of 2 years were also found. The analyses show that malaria cases display a peak at approximately 1 and a half months before or after peak rainfall and on average 1-4 months after peak river water levels in most of the municipalities studied. Each environmental variable displayed distinct local behavior in time and in space, suggesting that other local variables (e.g. topography) may control environmental conditions, favoring different patterns in each municipality. However, when the analyses were performed jointly it was possible to show a non-random order in these relations. Although environmental and climatic factors indicate a certain influence on malaria dynamics, surveillance, prevention, and control issues should not be overlooked, meaning that government public health interventions can mask possible relations with local hydrological and climatic conditions.

Socioeconomic and demographic characterization of an endemic malaria region in Brazil by multiple correspondence analysis

BACKGROUND

In the process of geographical retraction of malaria, some important endemicity pockets remain. Here, we report results from a study developed to obtain detailed community data from an important malaria hotspot in Latin America (Alto Juruá, Acre, Brazil), to investigate the association of malaria with socioeconomic, demographic and living conditions.

METHODS

A household survey was conducted in 40 localities (n = 520) of Mâncio Lima and Rodrigues Alves municipalities, Acre state. Information on previous malaria, schooling, age, gender, income, occupation, household structure, habits and behaviors related to malaria exposure was collected. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was applied to characterize similarities between households and identify gradients. The association of these gradients with malaria was assessed using regression.

RESULTS

The first three dimensions of MCA accounted for almost 50% of the variability between households. The first dimension defined an urban/rurality gradient, where urbanization was associated with the presence of roads, basic services as garbage collection, water treatment, power grid energy, and less contact with the forest. There is a significant association between this axis and the probability of malaria at the household level, OR = 1.92 (1.23-3.02). The second dimension described a gradient from rural settlements in agricultural areas to those in forested areas. Access via dirt road or river, access to electricity power-grid services and aquaculture were important variables. Malaria was at lower risk at the forested area, OR = 0.55 (1.23-1.12). The third axis detected intraurban differences and did not correlate with malaria.

CONCLUSIONS

Living conditions in the study area are strongly geographically structured. Although malaria is found throughout all the landscapes, household traits can explain part of the variation found in the odds of having malaria. It is expected these results stimulate further discussions on modelling approaches targeting a more systemic and multi-level view of malaria dynamics.

Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Peru

Malaria in Peru, dominated by Plasmodium vivax, remains a public health problem. The 1990s saw newly epidemic malaria emerge, primarily in the Loreto Department in the Amazon region, including areas near to Iquitos, the capital city, but sporadic malaria transmission also occurred in the 1990s–2000s in both north-coastal Peru and the gold mining regions of southeastern Peru. Although a Global Fund-supported intervention (PAMAFRO, 2005–2010) was temporally associated with a decrease of malaria transmission, from 2012 to the present, both P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases have rapidly increased. The Peruvian Ministry of Health continues to provide artemesinin-based combination therapy for microscopy-confirmed cases of P. falciparum and chloroquine–primaquine for P. vivax. Malaria transmission continues in remote areas nonetheless, where the mobility of humans and parasites facilitates continued reintroduction outside of ongoing surveillance activities, which is critical to address for future malaria control and elimination efforts. Ongoing P. vivax research gaps in Peru include the following: identification of asymptomatic parasitemics, quantification of the contribution of patent and subpatent parasitemics to mosquito transmission, diagnosis of nonparasitemic hypnozoite carriers, and implementation of surveillance for potential emergence of chloroquine- and 8-aminoquinoline-resistant P. vivax. Clinical trials of tafenoquine in Peru have been promising, and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in the region has not been observed to be a limitation to its use. Larger-scale challenges for P. vivax (and malaria in general) in Peru include logistical difficulties in accessing remote riverine populations, consequences of government policy and poverty trends, and obtaining international funding for malaria control and elimination.

Multiplicity of Infection and Disease Severity in Plasmodium vivax

Background

Multiplicity of infection (MOI) refers to the average number of distinct parasite genotypes concurrently infecting a patient. Although several studies have reported on MOI and the frequency of multiclonal infections in Plasmodium falciparum, there is limited data on Plasmodium vivax. Here, MOI and the frequency of multiclonal infections were studied in areas from South America where P. vivax and P. falciparum can be compared.

Methodology/Principal Findings

As part of a passive surveillance study, 1,328 positive malaria patients were recruited between 2011 and 2013 in low transmission areas from Colombia. Of those, there were only 38 P. vivax and 24 P. falciparum clinically complicated cases scattered throughout the time of the study. Samples from uncomplicated cases were matched in time and location with the complicated cases in order to compare the circulating genotypes for these two categories. A total of 92 P. vivax and 57 P. falciparum uncomplicated cases were randomly subsampled. All samples were genotyped by using neutral microsatellites. Plasmodium vivax showed more multiclonal infections (47.7%) than P. falciparum (14.8%). Population genetics and haplotype network analyses did not detect differences in the circulating genotypes between complicated and uncomplicated cases in each parasite. However, a Fisher exact test yielded a significant association between having multiclonal P. vivax infections and complicated malaria. No association was found for P. falciparum infections.

Conclusion

The association between multiclonal infections and disease severity in P. vivax is consistent with previous observations made in rodent malaria. The contrasting pattern between P. vivax and P. falciparum could be explained, at least in part, by the fact that P. vivax infections have lineages that were more distantly related among them than in the case of the P. falciparum multiclonal infections. Future research should address the possible role that acquired immunity and exposure may have on multiclonal infections and their association with disease severity.

Previous studies on rodent malarias and mathematical models have postulated a link between multiclonal infections and disease severity. This association has been tested in Plasmodium falciparum mostly in Africa with limited information on P. vivax. Furthermore, there is a paucity of information from areas with low transmission. Here, we used samples available from a passive surveillance carried out in Colombia, South America. We found an association between multiclonal infections and disease severity in P. vivax but not in P. falciparum. Although the number of complicated malaria cases is low, the contrasting pattern between these two species emphasizes their epidemiological differences. We discuss how this pattern could be the result of a higher divergence among the P. vivax lineages co-infecting a patient. We hypothesize that low levels of acquired immunity may play a role in the association between multiclonal infections and disease severity.

Implications for changes in Anopheles darlingi biting behaviour in three communities in the peri-Iquitos region of Amazonian Peru

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission in the peri-Iquitos region of Amazonian Peru has been designated as seasonal and hypo-endemic with recently described hyper-endemic hotspots. Despite relatively recent distribution of long-lasting insecticidal bed nets (LLINs), malaria in Amazonian Peru persists and increased substantially in 2014 compared to previous years. Anopheles darlingi, identified as the main malaria vector, is known for its variable behaviour depending on locality and environment.

METHODS

To evaluate vector biology metrics in relation to seasonality and malaria transmission, mosquito collections were carried out in three localities in the peri-Iquitos region, Loreto, Peru in 2011-2012. Human landing catch (HLC) collection method, Shannon (SHA) and CDC trap types were compared for effectiveness in a neotropical setting. Abundance, human biting rate and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) were measured to provide an updated view of transmission patterns post-LLIN distribution.

RESULTS

HLC collected significantly more anopheline mosquitoes than SHA and CDC light traps. Anopheles darlingi was the most prevalent species in all three villages (84% overall). Biting patterns varied depending on trap type, season and village. EIR varied temporally (monthly) and spatially and the highest (2.52) occurred during the 2012 malaria outbreak in Cahuide. Unexpectedly there was a high infection rate (1.47 and 1.75) outside the normal malaria transmission season, coincident with a second local outbreak in Cahuide. The first identification of Anopheles dunhami and Anopheles oswaldoi C in Peru, using molecular markers, is also reported in this study.

CONCLUSION

These data underscore the importance of HLC as the most meaningful collection method for measuring vector biology indices in this region. The highest monthly EIR provides additional evidence of seasonal transmission in riverine localities correlated with high river levels, and An. darlingi as the only contributor to transmission. The trend of an increase in outdoor-biting together with early-evening infected mosquitoes may undermine the effectiveness of LLINs as a primary malaria intervention.

Mass screening and treatment on the basis of results of a Plasmodium falciparum-specific rapid diagnostic test did not reduce malaria incidence in Zanzibar

BACKGROUND

Seasonal increases in malaria continue in hot spots in Zanzibar. Mass screening and treatment (MSAT) may help reduce the reservoir of infection; however, it is unclear whether rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detect a sufficient proportion of low-density infections to influence subsequent transmission.

METHODS

Two rounds of MSAT using Plasmodium falciparum-specific RDT were conducted in 5 hot spots (population, 12 000) in Zanzibar in 2012. In parallel, blood samples were collected on filter paper for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analyses. Data on confirmed malarial parasite infections from health facilities in intervention and hot spot control areas were monitored as proxy for malaria transmission.

RESULTS

Approximately 64% of the population (7859) were screened at least once. P. falciparum prevalence, as measured by RDT, was 0.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], .1%-.3%) in both rounds, compared with PCR measured prevalences (for all species) of 2.5% (95% CI, 2.1%-2.9%) and 3.8% (95% CI, 3.2%-4.4%) in rounds 1 and 2, respectively. Two fifths (40%) of infections detected by PCR included non-falciparum species. Treatment of RDT-positive individuals (4% of the PCR-detected parasite carriers) did not reduce subsequent malaria incidence, compared with control areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Highly sensitive point-of-care diagnostic tools for detection of all human malaria species are needed to make MSAT an effective strategy in settings where malaria elimination programs are in the pre-elimination phase.

Spatiotemporal clustering, climate periodicity, and social-ecological risk factors for dengue during an outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010

Background

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is a rapidly emerging public health problem in Ecuador and throughout the tropics. However, we have a limited understanding of the disease transmission dynamics in these regions. Previous studies in southern coastal Ecuador have demonstrated the potential to develop a dengue early warning system (EWS) that incorporates climate and non-climate information. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS.

Methods

The following data from Machala were included in analyses: neighborhood-level georeferenced dengue cases, national census data, and entomological surveillance data from 2010; and time series of weekly dengue cases (aggregated to the city-level) and meteorological data from 2003 to 2012. We applied LISA and Moran’s I to analyze the spatial distribution of the 2010 dengue cases, and developed multivariate logistic regression models through a multi-model selection process to identify census variables and entomological covariates associated with the presence of dengue at the neighborhood level. Using data aggregated at the city-level, we conducted a time-series (wavelet) analysis of weekly climate and dengue incidence (2003-2012) to identify significant time periods (e.g., annual, biannual) when climate co-varied with dengue, and to describe the climate conditions associated with the 2010 outbreak.

Results

We found significant hotspots of dengue transmission near the center of Machala. The best-fit model to predict the presence of dengue included older age and female gender of the head of the household, greater access to piped water in the home, poor housing condition, and less distance to the central hospital. Wavelet analyses revealed that dengue transmission co-varied with rainfall and minimum temperature at annual and biannual cycles, and we found that anomalously high rainfall and temperatures were associated with the 2010 outbreak.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the importance of geospatial information in dengue surveillance and the potential to develop a climate-driven spatiotemporal prediction model to inform disease prevention and control interventions. This study provides an operational methodological framework that can be applied to understand the drivers of local dengue risk.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0610-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dynamics of Plasmodium falciparium and Plasmodium vivax in a micro-ecological setting, Southwest Ethiopia: effects of altitude and proximity to a dam

Background

Refining the spatial and temporal data on malaria transmissions at a defined ecological setting has practical implications for targeted malaria control and enhancing efficient allocation of resources. Spatial and temporal distribution of P. falciparium and P. vivax were explored around the Gilgel Gibe Hydroelectric Dam (GGHD) in southwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A review of confirmed malaria episodes recorded over eight years at primary health services was conducted. Using individual identifiers and village names malaria records were cross-linked to location and individual records of Gilgel Gibe Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data, which had already been geo-referenced. The study setting was categorized in to buffer zones with distance interval of one kilometer. Similarly, altitude of the area was categorized considering 100 meters height intervals. Incidence rate ratios were estimated using Poisson model for the buffer zones and for the altitudinal levels by adjusting for the underlying population density as an offset variable. Yearly temporal variations of all confirmed malaria cases were also evaluated based on the Poisson model using STATA statistical software version 12.

Results

A considerable proportion (45.0%) of the P. falciparium episodes were registered within one kilometer radius of the GGHD. P. falciparium showed increment with distance from the GGHD up to five kilometers and with altitude above 1900 meters while P. vivax exhibited the increase with distance but, decrease with the altitude. Both species showed significantly higher infection among males than females (P <0.01). Temporally, malaria episodes manifested significant increments in the years between 2006/7 to 2009/10 while reduction of the malaria episodes was indicated during 2004/5, 2005/6 and 2010/11 compared to 2003/4 (P <0.01). On average, P. vivax was 52% less than P. falciparium over the time period considered. P. vivax was significantly higher in the years 2004/5 to 2007/8 and 2010/11 (P <0.001).

Conclusions

Spatial and temporal variations of malaria were observed. The spatial and temporal variations of malaria episodes were also different for the two main malaria species in the area.

Spatial and temporal epidemiology of clinical malaria in Cambodia 2004-2013

Background

Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria has recently been identified on the Thailand-Cambodia border and more recently in parts of Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam. There is concern that if this resistance were to spread, it would severely hamper malaria control and elimination efforts worldwide. Efforts are currently underway to intensify malaria control activities and ultimately eliminate malaria from Cambodia. To support these efforts, it is crucial to have a detailed picture of disease burden and its major determinants over time.

Methods

An analysis of spatial and temporal data on clinical malaria in Cambodia collected by the National Centre for Parasitology, Entomology and Malaria Control (CNM) and the Department of Planning and Health Information, Ministry of Health Cambodia from 2004 to 2013 is presented.

Results

There has been a marked decrease of 81% in annual cases due to P. falciparum since 2009 coinciding with a rapid scale-up in village malaria workers (VMWs) and insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Concurrently, the number of cases with Plasmodium vivax has greatly increased. It is estimated that there were around 112,000 total cases in 2012, 2.8 times greater than the WHO estimate for that year, and 68,000 in 2013 (an annual parasite incidence (API) of 4.6/1000). With the scale-up of VMWs, numbers of patients presenting to government facilities did not fall and it appears likely that those who saw VMWs had previously accessed healthcare in the private sector. Malaria mortality has decreased, particularly in areas with VMWs. There has been a marked decrease in cases in parts of western Cambodia, especially in Pailin and Battambang Provinces. In the northeast, the fall in malaria burden has been more modest, this area having the highest API in 2013.

Conclusion

The clinical burden of falciparum malaria in most areas of Cambodia has greatly decreased from 2009 to 2013, associated with roll-out of ITNs and VMWs. Numbers of cases with P. vivax have increased. Possible reasons for these trends are discussed and areas requiring further study are highlighted. Although malaria surveillance data are prone to collection bias and tend to underestimate disease burden, the finding of similar trends in two independent datasets in this study greatly increased the robustness of the findings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-385) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana.

The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela

We investigated the periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum incidence in time-series of malaria data (1990-2010) from three endemic regions in Venezuela. In particular, we determined whether disease epidemics were related to local climate variability and regional climate anomalies such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Malaria periodicity was found to exhibit unique features in each studied region. Significant multi-annual cycles of 2- to about 6-year periods were identified. The inter-annual variability of malaria cases was coherent with that of SSTs (ENSO), mainly at temporal scales within the 3-6 year periods. Additionally, malaria cases were intensified approximately 1 year after an El Niño event, a pattern that highlights the role of climate inter-annual variability in the epidemic patterns. Rainfall mediated the effect of ENSO on malaria locally. Particularly, rains from the last phase of the season had a critical role in the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium. The malaria-climate relationship was complex and transient, varying in strength with the region and species. By identifying temporal cycles of malaria we have made a first step in predicting high-risk years in Venezuela. Our findings emphasize the importance of analyzing high-resolution spatial-temporal data to better understand malaria transmission dynamics.

Elevated dry-season malaria prevalence associated with fine-scale spatial patterns of environmental risk: a case-control study of children in rural Malawi

Background

Understanding the role of local environmental risk factors for malaria in holo-endemic, poverty-stricken settings will be critical to more effectively implement- interventions aimed at eventual elimination. Household-level environmental drivers of malaria risk during the dry season were investigated in rural southern Malawi among children < five years old in two neighbouring rural Traditional Authority (TA) regions dominated by small-scale agriculture.

Methods

Ten villages were randomly selected from TA Sitola (n = 6) and Nsamala (n = 4). Within each village, during June to August 2011, a census was conducted of all households with children under-five and recorded their locations with a geographic position system (GPS) device. At each participating house, a nurse administered a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) to children under five years of age, and a questionnaire to parents. Environmental data were collected for each house, including land cover within 50-m radius. Variables found to be significantly associated with P. falciparum infection status in bivariate analysis were included in generalized linear models, including multivariate logistic regression (MLR) and multi-level multivariate logistic regression (MLLR). Spatial clustering of RDT status, environmental factors, and Pearson residuals from MLR and MLLR were analysed using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic.

Results

Of 390 children enrolled from six villages in Sitola (n = 162) and four villages in Nsamala (n = 228), 45.6% tested positive (n = 178) for Plasmodium infection by RDT. The MLLR modelled the statistical relationship of Plasmodium positives and household proximity to agriculture (<25-m radius), controlling for the child sex and age (in months), bed net ownership, elevation, and random effects intercepts for village and TA-level unmeasured factors. After controlling for area affects in MLLR, proximity to active agriculture remained a significant predictor of positive RDT result (OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.41-5.55). Mapping of Pearson residuals from MLR showed significant clustering (Gi* z > 2.58, p < 0.01) predominantly within TA Sitola, while residuals from MLLR showed no such clustering.

Conclusion

This study provides evidence for significant, dry-season heterogeneity of malaria prevalence strongly linked to peridomestic land use, and particularly of elevated risk associated with nearby crop production.

Improving the modeling of disease data from the government surveillance system: a case study on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon

The study of the effect of large-scale drivers (e.g., climate) of human diseases typically relies on aggregate disease data collected by the government surveillance network. The usual approach to analyze these data, however, often ignores a) changes in the total number of individuals examined, b) the bias towards symptomatic individuals in routine government surveillance, and; c) the influence that observations can have on disease dynamics. Here, we highlight the consequences of ignoring the problems listed above and develop a novel modeling framework to circumvent them, which is illustrated using simulations and real malaria data. Our simulations reveal that trends in the number of disease cases do not necessarily imply similar trends in infection prevalence or incidence, due to the strong influence of concurrent changes in sampling effort. We also show that ignoring decreases in the pool of infected individuals due to the treatment of part of these individuals can hamper reliable inference on infection incidence. We propose a model that avoids these problems, being a compromise between phenomenological statistical models and mechanistic disease dynamics models; in particular, a cross-validation exercise reveals that it has better out-of-sample predictive performance than both of these alternative models. Our case study in the Brazilian Amazon reveals that infection prevalence was high in 2004–2008 (prevalence of 4% with 95% CI of 3–5%), with outbreaks (prevalence up to 18%) occurring during the dry season of the year. After this period, infection prevalence decreased substantially (0.9% with 95% CI of 0.8–1.1%), which is due to a large reduction in infection incidence (i.e., incidence in 2008–2010 was approximately one fifth of the incidence in 2004–2008).We believe that our approach to modeling government surveillance disease data will be useful to advance current understanding of large-scale drivers of several diseases.

Disease data collected by the government surveillance system are frequently used to understand the influence of large-scale phenomena (e.g., climate) on human health because these data often have a large temporal and/or geographical span. The down side is that a) these data are often biased towards individuals that come to the health facilities (i.e., symptomatic individuals); and b) the number of individuals examined can vary substantially regardless of concurrent changes in prevalence or incidence (e.g., due to shortage of personnel or supplies in health facilities), directly impacting the number of disease cases detected. Current modeling approaches typically ignore these peculiarities of the government data. Furthermore, current approaches do not take into account that observations directly influence disease dynamics since individuals with a positive diagnosis are often subsequently treated for the disease. In this article, we develop a novel model to circumvent these shortcomings and apply it to simulated data, highlighting how inference on infection incidence and prevalence might be misleading when some of the issues mentioned above are ignored. Finally, we illustrate this model using malaria data from the Brazilian Amazon, revealing the strong role of precipitation on infection prevalence seasonality and striking patterns in infection incidence.

Malaria infection has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia

Background

Malaria elimination requires successful nationwide control efforts. Detecting the spatiotemporal distribution and mapping high-risk areas are useful to effectively target pockets of malaria endemic regions for interventions.

Objective

The aim of the study was to identify patterns of malaria distribution by space and time in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

Data were retrieved from the monthly reports stored in the district malaria offices for the period between 2003 and 2012. Eighteen districts in the highland and fringe malaria areas were included and geo-coded for the purpose of this study. The spatial data were created in ArcGIS10 for each district. The Poisson model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan™ software to analyze the purely temporal, spatial and space-time clusters of malaria at a district levels.

Results

The study revealed that malaria case distribution has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable transmission areas. Most likely spatial malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR =197764.1, p<0.001). Significant spatiotemporal malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR=197764.1, p<0.001) between 2003/1/1 and 2012/12/31. A temporal scan statistics identified two high risk periods from 2009/1/1 to 2010/12/31 (LLR=72490.5, p<0.001) and from 2003/1/1 to 2005/12/31 (LLR=26988.7, p<0.001).

Conclusion

In unstable malaria transmission areas, detecting and considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity would be useful to strengthen malaria control efforts and ultimately achieve elimination.

Cyclic patterns of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea for the years 1987-1996

Data on the dynamics of malaria incidence, admissions and mortality and their best possible description are very important to better forecast and assess the implementation of programmes to register, monitor (e.g. by remote sensing) and control the disease, especially in endemic zones. Semi-annual and seasonal cycles in malaria rates have been observed in various countries and close similarity with cycles in the natural environment (temperature, heliogeophysical activity, etc.), host immunity and/or virulence of the parasite suggested. This study aimed at confirming previous results on malaria cyclicity by exploring whether trans-year and/or multiannual cycles might exist. The exploration of underlying chronomes (time structures) was done with raw data (without smoothing) by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral (Fourier) and periodogram regression analysis. The strongest cyclical patterns of detrended malaria admissions were (i) annual period of 1·0 year (12 months or seasonality); (ii) quasi-biennial cycle of about 2·25 years; and (iii) infrannual, circadecennial cycle of about 10·3 years. The seasonal maximum occurred in May with the minimum in September. Notably, these cycles corresponded to similar cyclic components of heliogeophysical activity such as sunspot seasonality and solar activity cyclicities and well-known climate/weather oscillations. Further analyses are thus warranted to investigate such similarities. In conclusion, multicomponent cyclical dynamics of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea were observed thus allowing more specific analyses and modelling as well as correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity to be explored. Such further results might also contribute to and provide more precise estimates for the forecasting and prevention, as well as the better understanding, of the dynamics and aetiology of this vector-borne disease.

Characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of malaria incidence in Bangladesh, 2007

Background

Malaria remains a significant health problem in Bangladesh affecting 13 of 64 districts. The risk of malaria is variable across the endemic areas and throughout the year. A better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in malaria risk and the determinants driving the variation are crucial for the appropriate targeting of interventions under the National Malaria Control and Prevention Programme.

Methods

Numbers of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases reported by month in 2007, across the 70 endemic thanas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh, were assembled from health centre surveillance reports. Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with fixed effects for monthly rainfall, maximum temperature and elevation, and random effects for thanas, with a conditional autoregressive prior spatial structure.

Results

The annual incidence of reported cases was 34.0 and 9.6 cases/10,000 population for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively and the population of the 70 malaria-endemic thanas was approximately 13.5 million in 2007. Incidence of reported cases for both types of malaria was highest in the mountainous south-east of the country (the Chittagong Hill Tracts). Models revealed statistically significant positive associations between the incidence of reported P. vivax and P. falciparum cases and rainfall and maximum temperature.

Conclusions

The risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax was spatially variable across the endemic thanas of Bangladesh and also highly seasonal, suggesting that interventions should be targeted and timed according to the risk profile of the endemic areas. Rainfall, temperature and elevation are major factors driving the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria in Bangladesh.

Determinants of Anopheles seasonal distribution patterns across a forest to periurban gradient near Iquitos, Peru

As part of a field ecology study of arbovirus and malaria activity in the Amazon Basin, Loreto Department, Peru, we collected mosquitoes landing on humans at a forest site and inside and outside of residences and military barracks at periurban, rural, and village sites. We collected 11 Anopheles spp. from these four sites. An. darlingi, the principal malaria vector in the region, accounted for 98.7% of all Anopheles spp. collected at Puerto Almendra. Peaks in landing activity occurred during the December and April collection periods. However, the percent of sporozoite-positive Anopheles spp. was highest 1-2 months later, when landing activity decreased to approximately 10% of the peak activity periods. At all sites, peak landing activity occurred about 2 hours after sunset. These data provide a better understanding of the taxonomy, population density, and seasonal and habitat distribution of potential malaria vectors within the Amazon Basin region.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background

In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Sero-epidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season.

Methods

In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-1₁₉ (MSP-1₁₉) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method.

Results

A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases.

Discussion

In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Malaria in selected non-Amazonian countries of Latin America

Approximately 170 million inhabitants of the American continent live at risk of malaria transmission. Although the continent's contribution to the global malaria burden is small, at least 1-1.2 million malaria cases are reported annually. Sixty percent of the malaria cases occur in Brazil and the other 40% are distributed in 20 other countries of Central and South America. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species (74.2%) followed by P. falciparum (25.7%) and P. malariae (0.1%), and no less than 10 Anopheles species have been identified as primary or secondary malaria vectors. Rapid deforestation and agricultural practices are directly related to increases in Anopheles species diversity and abundance, as well as in the number of malaria cases. Additionally, climate changes profoundly affect malaria transmission and are responsible for malaria epidemics in some regions of South America. Parasite drug resistance is increasing, but due to bio-geographic barriers there is extraordinary genetic differentiation of parasites with limited dispersion. Although the clinical spectrum ranges from uncomplicated to severe malaria cases, due to the generally low to middle transmission intensity, features such as severe anemia, cerebral malaria and other complications appear to be less frequent than in other endemic regions and asymptomatic infections are a common feature. Although the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) of different countries differ in their control activities these are all directed to reduce morbidity and mortality by using strategies like health promotion, vector control and impregnate bed nets among others. Recently, international initiatives such as the Malaria Control Program in Andean-country Border Regions (PAMAFRO) (implemented by the Andean Organism for Health (ORAS) and sponsored by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)) and The Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance (RAVREDA) (sponsored by the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) and several other partners), have made great investments for malaria control in the region. We describe here the current status of malaria in a non-Amazonian region comprising several countries of South and Central America participating in the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), an International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

South American Plasmodium falciparum after the malaria eradication era: clonal population expansion and survival of the fittest hybrids

Malaria has reemerged in many regions where once it was nearly eliminated. Yet the source of these parasites, the process of repopulation, their population structure, and dynamics are ill defined. Peru was one of malaria eradication's successes, where Plasmodium falciparum was nearly eliminated for two decades. It reemerged in the 1990s. In the new era of malaria elimination, Peruvian P. falciparum is a model of malaria reinvasion. We investigated its population structure and drug resistance profiles. We hypothesized that only populations adapted to local ecological niches could expand and repopulate and originated as vestigial populations or recent introductions. We investigated the genetic structure (using microsatellites) and drug resistant genotypes of 220 parasites collected from patients immediately after peak epidemic expansion (1999-2000) from seven sites across the country. The majority of parasites could be grouped into five clonal lineages by networks and AMOVA. The distribution of clonal lineages and their drug sensitivity profiles suggested geographic structure. In 2001, artesunate combination therapy was introduced in Peru. We tested 62 parasites collected in 2006-2007 for changes in genetic structure. Clonal lineages had recombined under selection for the fittest parasites. Our findings illustrate that local adaptations in the post-eradication era have contributed to clonal lineage expansion. Within the shifting confluence of drug policy and malaria incidence, populations continue to evolve through genetic outcrossing influenced by antimalarial selection pressure. Understanding the population substructure of P. falciparum has implications for vaccine, drug, and epidemiologic studies, including monitoring malaria during and after the elimination phase.

The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008

Background

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects between 50 and 100 million people each year. Increasing our understanding of the heterogeneous transmission patterns of dengue at different spatial scales could have considerable public health value by guiding intervention strategies.

Methods

Based on the weekly number of dengue cases in Perú by province, we investigated the association between dengue incidence during the period 1994-2008 and demographic and climate factors across geographic regions of the country.

Results

Our findings support the presence of significant differences in the timing of dengue epidemics between jungle and coastal regions, with differences significantly associated with the timing of the seasonal cycle of mean temperature.

Conclusions

Dengue is highly persistent in jungle areas of Perú where epidemics peak most frequently around March when rainfall is abundant. Differences in the timing of dengue epidemics in jungle and coastal regions are significantly associated with the seasonal temperature cycle. Our results suggest that dengue is frequently imported into coastal regions through infective sparks from endemic jungle areas and/or cities of other neighboring endemic countries, where propitious environmental conditions promote year-round mosquito breeding sites. If jungle endemic areas are responsible for multiple dengue introductions into coastal areas, our findings suggest that curtailing the transmission of dengue in these most persistent areas could lead to significant reductions in dengue incidence in coastal areas where dengue incidence typically reaches low levels during the dry season.

Plants used by native Amazonian groups from the Nanay River (Peru) for the treatment of malaria

AIM OF THE STUDY

In order to evaluate the antimalarial potential of traditional remedies used in Peru, Indigenous and Mestizo populations from the river Nanay in Loreto were interviewed about traditional medication for the treatment of malaria.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The survey took place on six villages and led to the collection of 59 plants. 35 hydro-alcoholic extractions were performed on the 21 most cited plants. The extracts were then tested for antiplasmodial activity in vitro on Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine resistant strain (FCR-3), and ferriprotoporphyrin inhibition test was also performed in order to assume pharmacological properties.

RESULTS

Extracts from 9 plants on twenty-one tested (Abuta rufescens, Ayapana lanceolata, Capsiandra angustifolia, Citrus limon, Citrus paradise, Minquartia guianensis, Potalia resinífera, Scoparia dulcis, and Physalis angulata) displayed an interesting antiplasmodial activity (IC(50)<10 μg/ml) and 16 remedies were active on the ferriprotoporphyrin inhibition test.

CONCLUSIONS

The results give scientific validation to the traditional medical knowledge of the Amerindian and Mestizo populations from Loreto and exhibit a source of potentially active plants.

Beyond temperature and precipitation: ecological risk factors that modify malaria transmission

Being able to identify the ecological factors that impact risk for malaria would confer important predictive capacity to target malaria control interventions in a community. Temperature and water available for breeding habitats have been shown to be important primary ecological factors that impact the distribution of the malaria vectors and the rate at which the mosquito and parasite develop. However, to this point, studies focusing on the local level have been met with many inconsistent results when assessing malaria risk using both temperature and precipitation. This paper reviewed existing literature to determine if other ecological factors beyond temperature and water are present that may be modifying any associations present between ecological factors and malaria risk. It was found that the ability for water to pool and persist, water quality, elevation, deforestation, and agriculture have all been associated with malaria and may be modifying risk. Using the primary and modifying ecological variables, identifying the interactions between these factors and specific thresholds for increased malaria risk is critical: filling this knowledge gap would enable communities to develop tailored malaria control interventions targeted to their specific circumstances.