The pre-vaccination regional epidemiological landscape of measles in Italy: contact patterns, effort needed for eradication, and comparison with other regions of Europe

Decline in reported measles cases in Italy in the COVID-19 era, January 2020 - July 2022: The need to prevent a resurgence upon lifting non-pharmaceutical pandemic measures

From January 2020 to July 2022, 120 measles cases were reported to the Italian national surveillance system, of which 105 had symptom onset in 2020, nine in 2021 and six in the first seven months of 2022. This represents a sharp decline compared to the time period immediately preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, most likely due to the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented to prevent SARS-CoV2 transmission. Of 105 cases reported in 2020, 103 acquired the infection before a national lockdown was instituted on 9 March 2020. Overall, one quarter of cases reported at least one complication. As non-pharmaceutical pandemic measures are being eased worldwide, and considering measles seasonality, infectiousness, and its potential severity, it is important that countries ensure high vaccination coverage and close immunity gaps, to avoid risk of future outbreaks.

Extreme Precipitation Events and Infectious Disease Risk: A Scoping Review and Framework for Infectious Respiratory Viruses

Extreme precipitation events (EPE) change the natural and built environments and alter human behavior in ways that facilitate infectious disease transmission. EPEs are expected with high confidence to increase in frequency and are thus of great public health importance. This scoping review seeks to summarize the mechanisms and severity of impacts of EPEs on infectious diseases, to provide a conceptual framework for the influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases, and to define areas of future study currently lacking in this field. The effects of EPEs are well-studied with respect to enteric, vector-borne, and allergic illness where they are shown to moderately increase risk of illness, but not well-understood in relation to infectious respiratory illness. We propose a framework for a similar influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory viruses through several plausible pathways: decreased UV radiation, increased ambient relative humidity, and changes to human behavior (increased time indoors and use of heating and cooling systems). However, limited work has evaluated meteorologic risk factors for infectious respiratory diseases. Future research is needed to evaluate the effects of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases using individual-level case surveillance, fine spatial scales, and lag periods suited to the incubation periods of the disease under study, as well as a full characterization of susceptible, vulnerable, and sensitive population characteristics.

Increasing Measles Seroprevalence in a Sample of Pediatric and Adolescent Population of Tuscany (Italy): A Vaccination Campaign Success

Background: Despite the National Plan for the Elimination of Measles and congenital Rubella (NPEMcR), in 2017, a measles outbreak occurred in Italy, due to sub-optimal vaccination coverage (<95%) for many years. Since that year, the anti-measles vaccination became compulsory in minors (0–16 years) for school attendance. The aim of our study was to assess the immunity/susceptibility against measles in a representative sample of pediatric and adolescent (1–18 years) residents of the province of Florence (Tuscany, Italy), and to compare these results with two previous surveys (2003 and 2005–2006). Methods: The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was applied for a qualitative measurement of anti-measles antibodies on 165 sera. The anamnestic and vaccination status was also collected. Results: No measles notification was reported. The overall seropositivity was 88.5%; mostly in the 5–9 years old subjects (97.9%). Among the 152 vaccinated, 92.1% were positive. The seropositivity persisted after many years since the last dose of vaccine and tended to be more long-lasting in those who had received two or three doses. The susceptibility towards measles decreased over time, reaching a lower value in the current survey (8.5%) than in 2003 (30.8%) and in 2005–2006 (25.5%). Conclusions: This study confirmed the anti-measles vaccination campaign success, which allowed for the increase in vaccination coverage and immunity levels against measles in the Florentine pediatric and adolescent population following the NPEMcR implementation.

Dynamics of an SVEIRS Epidemic Model with Vaccination and Saturated Incidence Rate

Measles and influenza are two major diseases-caused an epidemic in India. Therefore, in this paper, a SVEIRS epidemic mathematical model for measles and influenza is proposed and analyzed, where pre and post vaccinations are considered as control strategies with waning natural, vaccine-induced immunity and saturation incidence rate. The dissection of the proposed model is conferred in terms of the associated reproduction number R v , which is determined by the next-generation approach and obtained that ifR v ≤ 1 , the disease-free equilibrium exists and it is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable. Further forR v > 1 , a unique endemic equilibrium exists and it is also locally as well as globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions, which shows the prevalence and persistence of the disease in the population.

Increasing mortality from ischaemic heart disease in China from 2004 to 2010: disproportionate rise in rural areas and elderly subjects. 438 million person-years follow-up

AIMS

We sought to ascertain the changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) from 2004 to 2010 in China as the sheer size of China's population makes disease patterns relevant globally.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data on IHD mortality were obtained from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention National Disease Surveillance Point System, which includes 161 counties and a population of over 73 million-a representative sample of over 6% of the entire population of China. Both crude and World Health Organization (WHO)-standardized IHD mortality increased, in both men and women and in both urban and rural locations, during the study period, demonstrating the effect of urbanization, economic growth, and epidemiological transition on cardiovascular health. WHO-standardized IHD mortality increased for rural males by 9.2% per year (95% CI: 6.7-11.7%; P < 0.0001), and the trend was statistically significantly higher (P = 0.0001) than in urban males by 6.4% per year (95% CI: 3-10%; P = 0.02). WHO-standardized IHD mortality rate increased for rural females by 7.0% per year (95% CI: 4.6-9.4%; P < 0.0001); this was statistically significantly higher than urban females by 4.3% per year (95% CI: 1-8%; P = 0.02). The age group over 80 years showed the greatest increase in IHD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality from IHD is increasing in China, in contrast to decreasing in other countries. This is largely driven by increasing IHD mortality in rural areas and subjects over 80 years old. This needs urgent attention by public health workers and policymakers.

Age patterns and transmission characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in China

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has circulated in China and caused yearly outbreak. To understand the transmission of the disease and to assess the spatial variation in cases reported, we examined age-specific transmission characteristics and reporting rates of HFMD for 31 provinces in mainland China.

Methods

We first analyzed incidence spatial patterns and age-specific incidence patterns using dataset from 2008 to 2012. Transmission characteristics were estimated based on catalytic model. Reporting rates were estimated using a simple mass action model from “Time Series Susceptible Infectious Recovered” (TSIR) modeling.

Results

We found age-specific spatial incidence patterns: age-specific proportions of HFMD cases varied geographically in China; larger case percentage was among children of 3–5 years old in the northern part of China and was among children of 0–2 years old in the southern part of China. Our analysis results revealed that: 1) reporting rates and transmission characteristics including the average age at infection, the force of infection and the basic reproduction number varied geographically in China; 2) patterns of the age-specific force of infection for 30 provinces were similar to that of childhood infections in developed countries; the age group that had the highest infection risk was 3–5 years old in 30 provinces, and 10–14 years old in Tibet; 3) a large difference in HFMD transmission existed between northwest region and southeast region; 4) transmission characteristics determined incidence patterns: the higher the disease transmission in a province, the earlier the annual seasonality started and the more case percentage was among children 0–2 years old and less among 3–5 years old.

Conclusion

Because HFMD has higher transmission than most childhood infections reported, high effective vaccine coverage is needed to substantially reduce HFMD incidence. Control measures before the vaccine implementation should focus on 2–6 years old children in 30 provinces and 10–14 years old children in Tibet.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2008-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density.