The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV--insights from clinical trial simulation

How Does Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Reduce HIV Risk?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is a surgical procedure that reduces HIV acquisition risk by almost two-thirds. However, global implementation is lagging, in part due to VMMC hesitancy. A better understanding of the mechanism(s) by which this procedure protects against HIV may increase acceptance of VMMC as an HIV risk reduction approach among health care providers and their clients.

RECENT FINDINGS

HIV acquisition in the uncircumcised penis occurs preferentially across the inner foreskin tissues, due to increased susceptibility that is linked to elevated inflammatory cytokine levels in the sub-preputial space and an increased tissue density of HIV-susceptible CD4 + T cells. Inflammation can be caused by sexually transmitted infections, but is more commonly induced by specific anaerobic components of the penile microbiome. Circumcision protects by both directly removing the susceptible tissues of the inner foreskin, and by inducing a less inflammatory residual penile microbiome. VMMC reduces HIV susceptibility by removing susceptible penile tissues, and also through impacts on the penile immune and microbial milieu. Understanding these mechanisms may not only increase VMMC acceptability and reinvigorate global VMMC programs, but may also lead to non-surgical HIV prevention approaches focused on penile immunology and/or microbiota.

Mathematical Model Describing HIV Infection with Time-Delayed CD4 T-Cell Activation

A mathematical model composed of two non-linear differential equations that describe the population dynamics of CD4 T-cells in the human immune system, as well as viral HIV viral load, is proposed. The invariance region is determined, classical equilibrium stability analysis is performed by using the basic reproduction number, and numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate stability results. Thereafter, the model is modified with a delay term, describing the time required for CD4 T-cell immunological activation. This generates a two-dimensional integro-differential system, which is transformed into a system with three ordinary differential equations. For the new model, equilibriums are determined, their local stability is examined, and results are studied by way of numerical simulation.

Penile coital injuries in men decline after circumcision: Results from a prospective study of recently circumcised and uncircumcised men in western Kenya

Background

Penile coital injuries are one of the suggested mechanisms behind the increased risk of HIV among uncircumcised men. We evaluated the prevalence and correlates of self-reported penile coital injuries in a longitudinal community-based cohort of young (18–24 years old), newly circumcised and uncircumcised men in Western Kenya.

Methods

Self-reported penile coital injuries were assessed at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of follow-up, and were defined as scratches, cuts or abrasions during sex, penile soreness during sex, and skin of the penis bleeding during sex. Associations between penile coital injuries, circumcision, sexual satisfaction, and other covariates were estimated with mixed effect models.

Results

Between November 2008 and April 2010 3,186 participants were enrolled (1,588 into circumcision group and 1,598 as age-matched controls). Among 2,106 (66%) participants sexually active at baseline, 53% reported any penile injury, including 44% scratches, cuts or abrasions; 32% penile pain/soreness; and 22% penile bleeding. In multivariable modeling, risk was lower for circumcised men than uncircumcised men for scratches, cuts and abrasions (aOR = 0.39; 95% CI 0.34–0.44); penile pain/soreness (aOR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.51–0.65), penile bleeding (aOR = 0.53; 95% CI 0.46–0.62), and any penile coital injuries (aOR = 0.47; 95%CI 0.42–0.53). Other significant risk factors included increasing age, history of STIs and genital sores, and multiple sex partners, while condom use was protective. Coital injuries were significantly associated with lower levels of sexual satisfaction in longitudinal analyses (scratches, cuts or abrasions: aOR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76–0.98; penile pain/soreness: aOR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.72–0.93; and penile bleeding: aOR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.55–0.76).

Conclusions

Self-reported penile coital injuries were common and decreased significantly following circumcision. Improving sexual experience through the removal of a potential source of sexual discomfort may resonate with many men targeted for circumcision services. The role of penile coital injuries in sexual satisfaction, HIV, HSV-2, and as a motivator for seeking circumcision services should be explored further.

Expanded HIV testing in low-prevalence, high-income countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis for the United Kingdom

Objective

In many high-income countries with low HIV prevalence, significant numbers of persons living with HIV (PLHIV) remain undiagnosed. Identification of PLHIV via HIV testing offers timely access to lifesaving antiretroviral therapy (ART) and decreases HIV transmission. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HIV testing in the United Kingdom (UK), where 25% of PLHIV are estimated to be undiagnosed.

Design

We developed a dynamic compartmental model to analyze strategies to expand HIV testing and treatment in the UK, with particular focus on men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and individuals from HIV-endemic countries.

Methods

We estimated HIV prevalence, incidence, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and health care costs over 10 years, and cost-effectiveness.

Results

Annual HIV testing of all adults could avert 5% of new infections, even with no behavior change following HIV diagnosis because of earlier ART initiation, or up to 18% if risky behavior is halved. This strategy costs £67,000–£106,000/QALY gained. Providing annual testing only to MSM, PWID, and people from HIV-endemic countries, and one-time testing for all other adults, prevents 4–15% of infections, requires one-fourth as many tests to diagnose each PLHIV, and costs £17,500/QALY gained. Augmenting this program with increased ART access could add 145,000 QALYs to the population over 10 years, at £26,800/QALY gained.

Conclusions

Annual HIV testing of key populations in the UK is very cost-effective. Additional one-time testing of all other adults could identify the majority of undiagnosed PLHIV. These findings are potentially relevant to other low-prevalence, high-income countries.

Biological basis for the protective effect conferred by male circumcision against HIV infection

Here we provide an up-to-date review of research that explains why uncircumcised men are at higher risk of HIV infection. The inner foreskin is a mucosal epithelium deficient in protective keratin, yet rich in HIV target cells. Soon after sexual exposure to infected mucosal secretions of a HIV-positive partner, infected T-cells from the latter form viral synapses with keratinocytes and transfer HIV to Langerhans cells via dendrites that extend to just under the surface of the inner foreskin. The Langerhans cells with internalized HIV migrate to the basal epidermis and then pass HIV on to T-cells, thus leading to the systemic infection that ensues. Infection is exacerbated in inflammatory states associated with balanoposthitis, the presence of smegma and ulceration - including that caused by infection with herpes simplex virus type 2 and some other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). A high foreskin surface area and tearing of the foreskin or associated frenulum during sexual intercourse also facilitate HIV entry. Thus, by various means, the foreskin is the primary biological weak point that permits HIV infection during heterosexual intercourse. The biological findings could explain why male circumcision protects against HIV infection.

Mathematical models in the evaluation of health programmes

Modelling is valuable in the planning and evaluation of interventions, especially when a controlled trial is ethically or logistically impossible. Models are often used to calculate the expected course of events in the absence of more formal assessments. They are also used to derive estimates of rare or future events from recorded intermediate points. When developing models, decisions are needed about the appropriate level of complexity to be represented and about model structure and assumptions. The degree of rigor in model development and assessment can vary greatly, and there is a danger that existing beliefs inappropriately influence judgments about model assumptions and results.

Scaling up circumcision programs in Southern Africa: the potential impact of gender disparities and changes in condom use behaviors on heterosexual HIV transmission

Circumcision significantly reduces female-to-male transmission of HIV infection, but changes in behavior may influence the overall impact on transmission. We sought to explore these effects, particularly for societies where women have less power to negotiate safe sex. We developed a compartmental epidemic model to simulate the population-level impact of various circumcision programs on heterosexual HIV transmission in Soweto. We incorporated gender-specific negotiation of condom use in sexual partnerships and explored post-circumcision changes in condom use. A 5-year prevention program in which only an additional 10% of uncircumcised males undergo circumcision each year, for example, would prevent 13% of the expected new HIV infections over 20 years. Outcomes were sensitive to potential changes in behavior and differed by gender. For Southern Africa, even modest programs offering circumcision would result in significant benefits. Because decreases in male condom use could diminish these benefits, particularly for women, circumcision programs should emphasize risk-reduction counseling.

Male circumcision and HIV infection risk

BACKGROUND

Male circumcision is being promoted to reduce human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) infection rates. This review evaluates the scientific evidence suggesting that male circumcision reduces HIV infection risk in high-risk heterosexual populations.

METHODS

We followed the updated International Consultation on Urological Diseases evidence-based medicine recommendations to critically review the scientific evidence on male circumcision and HIV infection risk.

RESULTS

Level 1 evidence supports the concept that male circumcision substantially reduces the risk of HIV infection. Three major lines of evidence support this conclusion: biological data suggesting that this concept is plausible, data from observational studies supported by high-quality meta-analyses, and three randomized clinical trials supported by high-quality meta-analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence from these biological studies, observational studies, randomized controlled clinical trials, meta-analyses, and cost-effectiveness studies is conclusive. The challenges to implementation of male circumcision as a public health measure in high-risk populations must now be faced.

The cost-effectiveness of a modestly effective HIV vaccine in the United States

BACKGROUND

The recent RV144 clinical trial showed that an ALVAC/AIDSVAX prime-boost HIV vaccine regimen may confer partial immunity in recipients and reduce transmission by 31%. Trial data suggest that efficacy may initially exceed 70% but decline over the following 3.5 years. Estimating the potential health benefits associated with a one-time vaccination campaign, as well as the projected benefits of repeat booster vaccination, may inform future HIV vaccine research and licensing decisions.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model to project the future course of the HIV epidemic in the United States under varying HIV vaccine scenarios. The model accounts for disease progression, infection transmission, antiretroviral therapy, and HIV-related morbidity and mortality. We projected HIV prevalence and incidence over time in multiple risk groups, and we estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs over a 10-year time horizon. We assumed an exponentially declining efficacy curve fit to trial data, and that subsequent vaccine boosters confer similar immunity. Variations in vaccine parameters were examined in sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Under existing HIV prevention and treatment efforts, an estimated 590,000 HIV infections occur over 10 years. One-time vaccination achieving 60% coverage of adults could prevent 9.8% of projected new infections over 10 years (and prevent 34% of new infections in the first year) and cost approximately $91,000/QALY gained relative to the status quo, assuming $500 per vaccination series. Targeted vaccination strategies result in net cost savings for vaccines costing less than $750. One-time vaccination of 60% of all adults coupled with three-year boosters only for men who have sex with men and people who inject drugs could prevent 21% of infections for $81,000/QALY gained relative to vaccination of higher risk sub-populations only. A program attaining 90% vaccination coverage prevents 15% of new HIV cases over 10 years (and approximately 50% of infections in the first year).

CONCLUSIONS

A partially effective HIV vaccine with effectiveness similar to that observed in the RV144 trial would provide large health benefits in the United States and could meet conventionally accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. Strategies that prioritize key populations are most efficient, but broader strategies provide greater total population health benefit.

The cost-effectiveness and population outcomes of expanded HIV screening and antiretroviral treatment in the United States

BACKGROUND

Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.

DESIGN

Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON

Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.

OUTCOME MEASURES

New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22,382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20,300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21,580 per QALY gained.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.

LIMITATION

The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.

CONCLUSION

Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

The cost-effectiveness and population outcomes of expanded HIV screening and antiretroviral treatment in the United States

BACKGROUND

Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.

DESIGN

Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON

Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.

OUTCOME MEASURES

New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22,382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20,300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21,580 per QALY gained.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.

LIMITATION

The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.

CONCLUSION

Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

Will circumcision provide even more protection from HIV to women and men? New estimates of the population impact of circumcision interventions

BACKGROUND

Mathematical modelling has indicated that expansion of male circumcision services in high HIV prevalence settings can substantially reduce population-level HIV transmission. However, these projections need revision to incorporate new data on the effect of male circumcision on the risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV.

METHODS

Recent data on the effect of male circumcision during wound healing and the risk of HIV transmission to women were synthesised based on four trials of circumcision among adults and new observational data of HIV transmission rates in stable partnerships from men circumcised at younger ages. New estimates were generated for the impact of circumcision interventions in two mathematical models, representing the HIV epidemics in Zimbabwe and Kisumu, Kenya. The models did not capture the interaction between circumcision, HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

RESULTS

An increase in the risk of HIV acquisition and transmission during wound healing is unlikely to have a major impact of circumcision interventions. However, it was estimated that circumcision confers a 46% reduction in the rate of male-to-female HIV transmission. If this reduction begins 2 years after the procedure, the impact of circumcision is substantially enhanced and accelerated compared with previous projections with no such effect-increasing by 40% the infections averted by the intervention overall and doubling the number of infections averted among women.

CONCLUSIONS

Communities, and especially women, may benefit much more from circumcision interventions than had previously been predicted, and these results provide an even greater imperative to increase scale-up of safe male circumcision services.

Male circumcision, HIV and sexually transmitted infections: a review

Three randomized controlled trials in sub-Saharan Africa have shown that circumcision reduces the risk of acquiring HIV infection in men by approximately 60%. In this paper, we review the evidence that male circumcision protects against infection with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in men and their female partners. Data from the clinical trials indicate that circumcision may be protective against genital ulcer disease, Herpes simplex type 2, Trichomonas vaginalis and human papillomavirus infection in men. No evidence exists of a protective effect against Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhea. There is weak evidence that circumcision has a direct protective effect on HIV infection in women, although there is likely to be an indirect benefit, since HIV prevalence is likely to be lower in circumcised male partners. Although there is little evidence from the trials of serious adverse events from the procedure and of behavioural risk compensation among circumcised men, essential operational research is being conducted to evaluate these key issues outside the trial setting as circumcision services are expanded. Following the publication of the clinical trial results in early 2007, the World Health Organization/UNAIDS has advised that promotion of male circumcision should be included as an additional HIV strategy for the prevention of heterosexually acquired HIV infection in men in areas of high HIV prevalence. As circumcision services are expanded in settings where resources are limited, non-physician providers including nurses will play an important role in the provision of services.

Potential population health outcomes and expenditures of HIV vaccination strategies in the United States

Estimating the potential health benefits and expenditures of a partially effective HIV vaccine is an important consideration in the debate about whether HIV vaccine research should continue. We developed an epidemic model to estimate HIV prevalence, new infections, and the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the U.S. Vaccines with modest efficacy could prevent 300,000-700,000 HIV infections and save $30 billion in healthcare expenditures over 20 years. Targeted vaccination of high-risk individuals is economically efficient, but difficulty in reaching these groups may mitigate these benefits. Universal vaccination is cost-effective for vaccines with 50% efficacy and price similar to other infectious disease vaccines.

Incremental role of male circumcision on a generalised HIV epidemic through its protective effect against other sexually transmitted infections: from efficacy to effectiveness to population-level impact

BACKGROUND

Male circumcision (MC) can reduce HIV acquisition. However, a better understanding of the indirect protective effect of MC on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is required.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incremental benefits conferred by MC on HIV infection at the individual level in circumcision trials (no herd immunity effect) and at the population level (with herd immunity effect) owing to its protective effect against other STIs.

METHODS

A dynamic stochastic model of HIV and STI infections in a Kenyan population was used to simulate the impact of MC offered to a few trial participants or to a large proportion of men in order to study the protective role of MC on HIV infection at the individual and population levels.

RESULTS

Fewer than 20% of the HIV infections prevented in the circumcised arm of the circumcision trials (individual level) could be attributable to the efficacy of MC against STIs rather than against HIV. At the population level, MC can significantly reduce the prevalence of HIV, especially among men and women in the longer term. However, even at the population level, the long-term incremental impact of MC on HIV due to the protection against STI is modest (even if MC efficacy against the STI and STI prevalence was high).

CONCLUSIONS

The protection of MC against STI contributes little to the overall effect of MC on HIV. Additional work is needed to determine whether, and under what conditions, the protective effect of MC efficacy against STIs can have a significant incremental benefit on the HIV epidemic.

Male circumcision for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa: who, what and when?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Male circumcision (circumcision) reduces HIV incidence in men by 50-60%. The United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recommends the provision of safe circumcision services in countries with high HIV and low circumcision prevalence, prioritizing 12-30 years old HIV-uninfected men. We explore how the population-level impact of circumcision varies by target age group, coverage, time-to-scale-up, level of risk compensation and circumcision of HIV infected men.

DESIGN AND METHODS

An individual-based model was fitted to the characteristics of a typical high-HIV-prevalence population in sub-Saharan Africa and three scenarios of individual-level impact corresponding to the central and the 95% confidence level estimates from the Kenyan circumcision trial. The simulated intervention increased the prevalence of circumcision from 25 to 75% over 5 years in targeted age groups. The impact and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were calculated over 2-50 years. Future costs and effects were discounted and compared with the present value of lifetime HIV treatment costs (US$ 4043).

RESULTS

Initially, targeting men older than the United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS recommended age group may be the most cost-effective strategy, but targeting any adult age group will be cost-saving. Substantial risk compensation could negate impact, particularly if already circumcised men compensate. If circumcision prevalence in HIV uninfected men increases less because HIV-infected men are also circumcised, this will reduce impact in men but would have little effect on population-level impact in women.

CONCLUSION

Circumcision is a cost-saving intervention in a wide range of scenarios of HIV and initial circumcision prevalence but the United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS/WHO recommended target age group should be widened to include older HIV-uninfected men and counselling should be targeted at both newly and already circumcised men to minimize risk compensation. To maximize infections-averted, circumcision must be scaled up rapidly while maintaining quality.

Using modeling to explore the degree to which a microbicide's sexually transmitted infection efficacy may contribute to the HIV effectiveness measured in phase 3 microbicide trials

BACKGROUND

Several microbicide candidates show activity against pathogens that cause sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This may increase a microbicide's impact on HIV in phase 3 trials. Modeling is used to estimate the degree to which a microbicide's STI efficacy contributes to the HIV effectiveness of a phase 3 microbicide trial.

METHODS

An expression is derived and coupled with an STI model to estimate how much a microbicide's STI efficacy contributes to a trial's HIV effectiveness. The STI model estimates the decrease in STI prevalence that may occur in the trial's active gel arm for microbicides of different STI efficacy. Projections are produced for different STI cofactors and epidemiological settings.

RESULTS

The model projects that if a microbicide is active against curable STIs with a combined prevalence of >or=10% among trial participants and the reduction in HIV incidence is <50%, then the STI activity could have substantially contributed to the trial's HIV effectiveness (>50% in some cases) if the per exposure multiplicative STI cofactor is 2.5 or greater. However, if the STI prevalence is <10% or the STI cofactor is <2.5 or if the reduction in HIV incidence is >50%, then the trial's HIV effectiveness will be mainly due to its direct HIV efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

In high STI settings, phase 3 trials documenting a moderate impact on HIV incidence may partially result from a gel's activity against curable STI. Care should be taken generalizing these trial results to other settings. This is less important for trials documenting large reductions in HIV incidence.