The democratic fallacy in matters of clinical opinion: implications for analysing cause-of-death data

Web-based expert system with quick response code for beta-thalassemia management

β-thalassemia is an inherited blood disorder in which the body cannot produce hemoglobin normally. Since patients with this condition receive blood transfusions regularly, iron builds up primarily in organs such as the heart, liver and endocrine glands. Accumulation of iron in the organs necessitates chelation therapy. These patients must visit the hospital frequently to assess and follow up on their health condition. Physician intervention is required after each regular assessment to adjust the treatment. Lifelong healthcare support using a web-based expert system with a quick response code is designed for β-thalassemia management in order to deliver benefits to patients, physicians, and other healthcare providers. The aim of this study is to implement a web-based expert system for β-thalassemia management in order to provide treatment recommendations and support the lifelong healthcare of patients. The system provides patient-related details, such as medical history, medicines, and appointments, in real-time. It has been also tested in real-life cases and shown to enhance β-thalassemia management.

Epilepsy risk among survivors of intensive care unit hospitalization for sepsis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether survivors of intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations with sepsis experience higher epilepsy risk than survivors of ICU hospitalizations without sepsis, and to identify sepsis survivors at highest risk.

METHODS

We used linked, administrative health care databases to conduct a population-based, retrospective matched cohort study of adult Ontario residents discharged from an ICU between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015, identified using the Discharge Abstract Database. We used propensity scores to match patients who experienced sepsis during their index ICU hospitalization with up to 4 patients who did not experience sepsis. We applied marginal Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the risk of epilepsy within 2 years following the index ICU hospitalization. Among sepsis survivors, Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify factors associated with epilepsy.

RESULTS

A total of 143,892 patients were included, 32,252 (22.4%) of whom were exposed. Sepsis survivors were at significantly higher epilepsy risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-1.80). The risk of epilepsy marginally decreased with increasing age (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99); patients with chronic kidney disease (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.48-3.43) were at highest risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In this real-world analysis, sepsis survivors, particularly those who are younger and have chronic kidney disease, are at significantly higher epilepsy risk. These findings indicate that sepsis may be an unrecognized epilepsy risk factor.

Comparing verbal autopsy cause of death findings as determined by physician coding and probabilistic modelling: a public health analysis of 54 000 deaths in Africa and Asia

Background

Coverage of civil registration and vital statistics varies globally, with most deaths in Africa and Asia remaining either unregistered or registered without cause of death. One important constraint has been a lack of fit–for–purpose tools for registering deaths and assigning causes in situations where no doctor is involved. Verbal autopsy (interviewing care–givers and witnesses to deaths and interpreting their information into causes of death) is the only available solution. Automated interpretation of verbal autopsy data into cause of death information is essential for rapid, consistent and affordable processing.

Methods

Verbal autopsy archives covering 54 182 deaths from five African and Asian countries were sourced on the basis of their geographical, epidemiological and methodological diversity, with existing physician–coded causes of death attributed. These data were unified into the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard format, and processed using the InterVA–4 model. Cause–specific mortality fractions from InterVA–4 and physician codes were calculated for each of 60 WHO 2012 cause categories, by age group, sex and source. Results from the two approaches were assessed for concordance and ratios of fractions by cause category. As an alternative metric, the Wilcoxon matched–pairs signed ranks test with two one–sided tests for stochastic equivalence was used.

Findings

The overall concordance correlation coefficient between InterVA–4 and physician codes was 0.83 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) and this increased to 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.99) when HIV/AIDS and pulmonary TB deaths were combined into a single category. Over half (53%) of the cause category ratios between InterVA–4 and physician codes by source were not significantly different from unity at the 99% level, increasing to 62% by age group. Wilcoxon tests for stochastic equivalence also demonstrated equivalence.

Conclusions

These findings show strong concordance between InterVA–4 and physician–coded findings over this large and diverse data set. Although these analyses cannot prove that either approach constitutes absolute truth, there was high public health equivalence between the findings. Given the urgent need for adequate cause of death data from settings where deaths currently pass unregistered, and since the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and InterVA–4 tools represent relatively simple, cheap and available methods for determining cause of death on a large scale, they should be used as current tools of choice to fill gaps in cause of death data.

Cause-specific childhood mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

Background

Childhood mortality, particularly in the first 5 years of life, is a major global concern and the target of Millennium Development Goal 4. Although the majority of childhood deaths occur in Africa and Asia, these are also the regions where such deaths are least likely to be registered. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available.

Objective

To present a description of cause-specific mortality rates and fractions over the first 15 years of life as documented by INDEPTH Network sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south-east Asia.

Design

All childhood deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with verbal autopsy (VA) interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provided person-time denominators for mortality rates. Cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions are presented according to WHO 2012 VA cause groups for neonatal, infant, 1–4 year and 5–14 year age groups.

Results

A total of 28,751 childhood deaths were documented during 4,387,824 person-years over 18 sites. Infant mortality ranged from 11 to 78 per 1,000 live births, with under-5 mortality from 15 to 152 per 1,000 live births. Sites in Vietnam and Kenya accounted for the lowest and highest mortality rates reported.

Conclusions

Many children continue to die from relatively preventable causes, particularly in areas with high rates of malaria and HIV/AIDS. Neonatal mortality persists at relatively high, and perhaps sometimes under-documented, rates. External causes of death are a significant childhood problem in some settings.

Social determinants in an Australian urban region: a 'complexity' lens

Area-based strategies have been widely employed in efforts to improve population health and take action on social determinants of health (SDH) and health inequities, including in urban areas where many of the social, economic and environmental factors converge to influence health. Increasingly, these factors are recognized as being part of a complex system, where population health outcomes are shaped by multiple, interacting factors operating at different levels of social organization. This article reports on research to assess the extent to which an alliance of health and human service networks is able to promote action on SDH within an Australian urban region, using a complex systems frame. We found that such an alliance was able to promote some effective action which takes into account complex interactions between social factors affecting health, but also identified significant potential barriers to other forms of desired action identified by alliance members. We found that a complex systems lens was useful in assessing a collaborative intervention to address SDH within an urban region.

Cause of death distribution with InterVA and physician coding in a rural area of Burkina Faso

OBJECTIVES

To compare the cause of death distribution using the Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy approach versus the Interpreting Verbal Autopsy model, based on information from a French verbal autopsy questionnaire, in rural north-western Burkina Faso.

METHODS

Data from 5649 verbal autopsy questionnaires reviewed by local physicians at the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance Site between 1998 and 2007 were considered for analyses. Information from VA interviews was extracted to create a set of standard indicators needed to run the Interpreting Verbal Autopsy model. Cause-specific mortality fractions were used to compare Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy and Interpreting Verbal Autopsy results.

RESULTS

At the population level, 62.5% of causes of death using the Interpreting Verbal Autopsy model corresponded with those determined by two or three physicians. Although seven of the 10 main causes of death were present in both approaches, the comparison of percentages of single causes of death shows discrepancies, dominated by higher malaria rates found in the Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy approach.

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm that national mortality statistics, which are partly based on verbal autopsies, must be carefully interpreted. Difficulties in determining malaria as cause of death in holoendemic malaria regions might result in higher discrepancies than those in non-endemic areas. As neither Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy nor Interpreting Verbal Autopsy results represent a gold standard, uncertainty levels with either procedure are high.

Factors associated with physician agreement and coding choices of cause of death using verbal autopsies for 1130 maternal deaths in India

Background

The Indian Sample Registration System (SRS) with verbal autopsy methods provides estimations of cause specific mortality for maternal deaths, where the majority of deaths occur at home, unregistered. We aim to examine factors that influence physician agreement and coding choices in assigning causes of death from verbal autopsies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Among adult deaths identified in the SRS, pregnancy-related deaths recorded in 2001–2003 were assigned ICD-10 codes by two independent physicians. Inter-rater reliability was estimated using Landis Koch Kappa classification – poor to fair agreement; >– moderate agreement; >– substantial agreement; >– high agreement. We identified factors associated with physician agreement using multivariate logistic regression. A central consensus panel reviewed cases for errors and reclassified as needed based on 2011 ICD-10 coding guidelines. Of 1130 pregnancy-related deaths, 1040 were assigned ICD-10 codes by two physicians. We found substantial agreement regardless of the woman's residence, whether the death was registered, religion, respondent's or deceased's education, age, hospital admission or gestational age. Physician agreement was not influenced by the above variables, with the exception of greater agreement in cases where the respondent did not live with the deceased, or early gestational age at the time of death. A central consensus panel reviewed all cases and recoded 10% of cases due to insufficient use of information in the verbal autopsy by the coding physicians and rationale for this reclassification are discussed.

Conclusion

In the absence of complete vital registration and universal healthcare services, physician coded verbal autopsies continues to be heavily relied upon to ascertain pregnancy-related death. From this study, two independent physicians had good inter-rater reliability for assigning pregnancy-related causes of death in a nationally-represented sample, and physician coding does not appear to be heavily influenced by case characteristics or demographics.

Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics: the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa

Background

Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation.

Methods

Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time.

Results

Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably.

Conclusions

VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double coding may be unnecessary, although the consensus rate of HIV-related mortality was approximately 8% lower than by individual physicians. Consistency within and between individual physicians, individual perceptions of epidemic dynamics, and the inherent consistency of models are important considerations here. The ability of the InterVA model to track a more than tenfold increase in HIV-related mortality over time suggests that finely tuned "local" versions of models for VA interpretation are not necessary.