Within-holding prevalence of sheep classical scrapie in Great Britain

Feline leptospirosis prevalence worldwide: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic approaches

Background and Aim

Leptospirosis in felids (domestic and wild cats) presents an ongoing challenge in our understanding. Numerous studies have reported the detection of Leptospira spp. in these feline populations, highlighting their potential as zoonotic carriers. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to provide insight into the global prevalence of leptospirosis in domestic and wild cats.

Materials and Methods

We conducted extensive searches across five databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct, and Google Scholar) following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses Protocols guidelines. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed using R software version 4.3.0 to estimate pooled prevalence rates. Subgroup meta-analyses were conducted based on continents, diagnostic methods, sample types, and wildcat genera.

Results

A total of 71 articles on leptospirosis in domestic cats and 23 articles on leptospirosis in wild cats met the eligibility criteria. Our findings indicated a significantly higher pooled seroprevalence of leptospirosis in domestic cats compared with infection prevalence (9.95% [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.60%-12.54%] vs. 4.62% [95% CI, 2.10%-7.83%], p = 0.01). In contrast, no significant difference was observed in pooled seroprevalence and infection prevalence among wild cats (13.38% [95% CI, 6.25%-21.93%] vs. 2.9% [95% CI, 0.00%-18.91%], p = 0.21). A subgroup meta-analysis of domestic cats revealed significant differences in seroprevalence across continents, sample types, and diagnostic methods. On the contrary, wild cats had no significant differences in any of the subgroups.

Conclusion

Leptospira spp. have evidently been exposed to both domestic and wild cats, highlighting their potential roles as reservoir hosts for leptospirosis. These findings highlight the importance of considering felids as a possible public health threat.

Ruminant-associated Listeria monocytogenes isolates belong preferentially to dairy-associated hypervirulent clones: a longitudinal study in 19 farms

Studies have shown that ruminants constitute reservoirs of Listeria monocytogenes, but little is known about the epidemiology and genetic diversity of this pathogen within farms. Here we conducted a large-scale longitudinal study to monitor Listeria spp. in 19 dairy farms during three consecutive seasons (N = 3251 samples). L. innocua was the most prevalent species, followed by L. monocytogenes. Listeria monocytogenes was detected in 52.6% of farms and more frequently in cattle (4.1%) and sheep (4.5%) than in goat farms (0.2%). Lineage I accounted for 69% of L. monocytogenes isolates. Among animal samples, the most prevalent sublineages (SL) and clonal complexes (CC) were SL1/CC1, SL219/CC4, SL26/CC26 and SL87/CC87, whereas SL666/CC666 was most prevalent in environmental samples. Sixty-one different L. monocytogenes cgMLST types were found, 28% common to different animals and/or surfaces within the same farm and 21% previously reported elsewhere in the context of food and human surveillance. Listeria monocytogenes prevalence was not affected by farm hygiene but by season: higher prevalence was observed during winter in cattle, and during winter and spring in sheep farms. Cows in their second lactation had a higher probability of L. monocytogenes faecal shedding. This study highlights dairy farms as a reservoir for hypervirulent L. monocytogenes.

The evolution of the prevalence of classical scrapie in sheep in Great Britain using surveillance data between 2005 and 2012

After the decline of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Great Britain (GB), scrapie remains the most prevalent animal Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) present in GB. A number of control measures have been implemented for classical scrapie, and since 2005 there has been a large reduction in the number of observed cases. The objective of this study is to estimate two measures of disease frequency using up to date surveillance data collected during and after the implementation of different control measures established since 2004, and breeding for resistance schemes that ran from 2001 until 2009. This would enable an assessment of the effectiveness of both the breeding for resistance programme and the compulsory eradication measures in reducing the prevalence of scrapie in GB. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the rapid post-mortem test for scrapie indicated that it detected scrapie in the last 25% of the incubation period. A back-calculation model was developed to estimate the prevalence of infection at animal and flock-level. The results of the model indicated a mean drop of infection prevalence of 31% each year, leading to a 90% drop in infection prevalence between 2005, with an estimate of 5737 infected sheep in GB in 2012. The risks of classical scrapie infection in animals with genotypes of National Scrapie Plan Types I-IV (all other genotypes), relative to Type V (all genotypes containing V136 R154 Q171 and not A136 R154 R171), were estimated to be: 0, 0.0008, 0.07, and 0.21 respectively. The model estimated a very low rate of reporting of clinical suspects and a large decline from 2007 of the probability of a sheep being reported as a clinical suspect. The model also estimated that the expected number of sheep holdings with classical scrapie in 2012 was 215 (95% confidence interval: 33-437), out of a total of approximately 72,000 sheep holdings in GB. Model estimates indicate that the prevalence in 2012 has dropped to 10% of that in 2005, showing the effectiveness of the control measures. It also shows a bias in the destination of infected animals, with the majority of infected animals being detected in the fallen stock surveillance stream, and an extremely low proportion of animals detected as clinical suspects; this is very important in terms of the design of surveillance schemes for classical scrapie.

A Bayesian framework to assess the potential for controlling classical scrapie in sheep flocks using a live diagnostic test

Current strategies to control classical scrapie remove animals at risk of scrapie rather than those known to be infected with the scrapie agent. Advances in diagnostic tests, however, suggest that a more targeted approach involving the application of a rapid live test may be feasible in future. Here we consider the use of two diagnostic tests: recto-anal mucosa-associated lymphatic tissue (RAMALT) biopsies; and a blood-based assay. To assess their impact we developed a stochastic age- and prion protein (PrP) genotype-structured model for the dynamics of scrapie within a sheep flock. Parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to facilitate integration of a number of disparate datasets and to allow parameter uncertainty to be incorporated in model predictions. In small flocks a control strategy based on removal of clinical cases was sufficient to control disease and more stringent measures (including the use of a live diagnostic test) did not significantly reduce outbreak size or duration. In medium or large flocks strategies in which a large proportion of animals are tested with either live diagnostic test significantly reduced outbreak size, but not always duration, compared with removal of clinical cases. However, the current Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS) significantly reduced outbreak size and duration compared with both removal of clinical cases and all strategies using a live diagnostic test. Accordingly, under the assumptions made in the present study there is little benefit from implementing a control strategy which makes use of a live diagnostic test.

The risk of introducing scrapie from restocking goats in Great Britain

The goat population in Great Britain (GB), which is mostly oriented to milk production, is small compared to that in other European Union (EU) countries and contributes a very small fraction of the total livestock production. The recent confirmation and cull of scrapie-affected goat herds has raised the concern that the risk of re-introducing scrapie by mass restocking after the cull of a scrapie-affected herd, may not have been fully considered at the time of implementing statutory eradication measures. A conditional probability model has been developed to estimate the probability of introducing at least one animal infected with classical scrapie into a British goat herd under two scenarios: restocking over one year under normal operating conditions (Scenario 1); and restocking post a whole herd cull as part of the compulsory eradication measures (Scenario 2). Several of the parameters were based on expert opinion, as there is a paucity of data regarding goat industry norms for all sectors. Considering all herds, of which 99% have less than 100 animals, the probability of introduction is approximately 2 times higher for Scenario (2) than for Scenario (1). The risk of subsequently re-introducing the disease through the introduction of replacement stock is not insignificant, although it can be considered very low for the vast majority of herds (>99%). In the case of very large herds (>1000 heads), mass restocking would almost certainly reintroduce the disease since it would require purchases from a very large number of herds.

Inactivation of salmonella in biofilms and on chicken cages and preharvest poultry by levulinic Acid and sodium dodecyl sulfate

Surface contamination (skin and feathers) of broilers with Salmonella occurs primarily during growth and transportation. Immediately after transporting chickens, chicken cage doors were sprayed with a foam containing 3% levulinic acid plus 2% sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS). Samples were collected for Salmonella assay after 45 min. Salmonella on cage doors was reduced from 19% (19 of 100 doors) before treatment to 1% (1 of 100 doors) after treatment, coliform counts were reduced from 6 to 8 to 2 to 4 log CFU/9 cm(2), and aerobic plate counts were reduced from 7 to 9 to 4 to 6 log CFU/9 cm(2). Whole chicken carcasses with feathers were inoculated with 10(8) CFU of Salmonella Enteritidis, soaked for 5 min at 21°C in 72 liters of a treatment or control solution, and assayed for Salmonella. Salmonella counts on chickens treated with water were 6.8 to 8.5 log CFU/9 cm(2), those treated with 50 ppm of calcium hypochlorite were 7.6 to 8.9 log CFU/9 cm(2), and those treated with 3% levulinic acid plus 2% SDS were <1.7 to 2.8 CFU/9 cm(2) (>4-log reduction). Results of biofilm studies on surfaces of various materials revealed that a 3% levulinic acid plus 2% SDS treatment used as either a foam or liquid for 10 min effectively reduced Salmonella populations by 5 and >6 log CFU/cm(2), respectively.

The impact of the genotype on the prevalence of classical scrapie at population level

Total number and genotypes of animals in holdings selected for the genotype & cull option in the Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme (CSFS) in Great Britain were extracted from the National Scrapie Plan data warehouse. The association between various genotype-related measures and scrapie prevalence infection was tested using zero-inflated negative binomial models with the counts of positive cases as dependent variable, and country, number of flocks in the scheme, flock size, surveillance source and the following genotype-related measurements: the centered-log ratios (clr) oof the 15 genotypes, of the proportions of the 5 alleles at codons 136, 154 and 171, of the proportions of the 5 NSP types, and two flock-susceptibility risk indicators, as explanatory variables. A total of 319341 genotyped animals from 168 holdings were included in the analysis. An increased proportion of the ARR/ARR genotype corresponded to a decrease in the number of scrapie cases. ARR/AHQ, AHQ/VRQ, ARH/VRQ and ARQ/VRQ genotypes, NSP type V, ARH, ARQ, AHQ and VRQ alleles and the low and high-susceptibility risk indicators are all associated with an increase risk in the number of scrapie cases.

Regardless the management practices; the increased susceptibility that the non-ARR alleles confer on an individual could be extrapolated at the population level. Increasing prevalence of ARR allele reduces the overall risk of scrapie at population level. At genotype level, the VRQ/VRQ genotype, present a very low frequency in the study population, seems to play a residual effect in the overall risk of scrapie in a flock.

A Bayesian hierarchical analysis to compare classical and atypical scrapie surveillance data; Wales 2002-2006

We describe the application of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) to the analysis of risk of sheep scrapie using data from multiple surveillance sources. More specifically, we analysed data from the test results of three surveillance sources on classical and atypical scrapie in Wales for the period 2002-2006. For each form of scrapie, a BHM was fitted to assess the occurrence of spatial patterns of risk shared by the multiple surveillance sources and the association between covariates and disease. We defined a shared-component model whereby the two types of data sources: exhaustive lists (e.g. reports of clinical cases) and sample-based data sources (e.g. abattoir survey) shared a common spatial pattern of risks at parish level. This shared component was adjusted by a risk-gradient parameter that moderated the individual contribution of the datasets. For both forms of scrapie, the risk-gradient was not significantly different indicating that the sensitivity of the two types of dataset was similar for the two diseases. The spatial patterns of the combinations of data sources appeared similar within disease. However, our results suggest that classical and atypical scrapie differ in their spatial patterns and disease determinants. The joint approach permitted inference from all the available evidence and resulted in robust and less biased estimates of risk, particularly for atypical scrapie where the number of observations was very limited.

Use of a preclinical test in the control of classical scrapie

Scrapie control in Great Britain (GB) was originally based on the National Scrapie Plan's Ram Genotyping scheme aimed at reducing the susceptibility of the national flock. The current official strategy to control scrapie in the national flock involves culling susceptible genotypes in individual, known affected flocks (compulsory scrapie flock scheme or CSFS). However, the recent development of preclinical test candidates means that a strategy based on disease detection may now be feasible. Here, a deterministic within-flock model was used to demonstrate that only large flocks with many home-bred ewes are likely to be a significant risk for flock-to-flock transmission of scrapie. For most other flocks, it was found that the CSFS could be replaced by a strategy using a currently available live test without excessive risk to other farmers, even if the proportion of susceptible genotypes in the flock is unusually large. Even for flocks that represent a high risk of harbouring a high prevalence of infection, there would be limited probability of onward transmission if scrapie is detected soon after disease introduction (typically less than 5 years). However, if detection of disease is delayed, the existing CSFS strategy may be the most appropriate control measure in these cases.

The role of mathematical modelling in understanding the epidemiology and control of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies: a review

To deal with the incompleteness of observations and disentangle the complexities of transmission much use has been made of mathematical modelling when investigating the epidemiology of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and, in particular, scrapie. Importantly, these modelling approaches allow the incidence of clinical disease to be related to the underlying prevalence of infection, thereby overcoming one of the major difficulties when studying these diseases. Models have been used to investigate the epidemiology of scrapie within individual flocks and at a regional level; to assess the efficacy of different control strategies, especially selective breeding programmes based on prion protein (PrP) genotype; to interpret the results of scrapie surveillance; and to inform the design of surveillance programmes. Furthermore, mathematical modelling has played an important role when assessing the risk to human health posed by the possible presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep. Here, we review the various approaches that have been taken when developing and analysing mathematical models for the epidemiology and control of sheep TSE and assess their impact on our understanding of these diseases. We also identify areas that require further work, discuss future challenges and identify data gaps.

The prevalence of atypical scrapie in sheep from positive flocks is not higher than in the general sheep population in 11 European countries

Background

During the last decade, active surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants has been intensive in Europe. In many countries this has led to the detection of cases of atypical scrapie which, unlike classical scrapie, might not be contagious. EU legislation requires, that following detection of a scrapie case, control measures including further testing take place in affected flocks, including the culling of genotype susceptible to classical scrapie. This might result in the detection of additional cases. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of additional cases in flocks affected by atypical scrapie using surveillance data collected in Europe in order to ascertain whether atypical scrapie, is contagious.

Results

Questionnaires were used to collect, at national level, the results of active surveillance and testing associated with flock outbreaks in 12 European countries. The mean prevalence of atypical scrapie was 5.5 (5.0-6.0) cases per ten thousand in abattoir surveillance and 8.1 (7.3-9.0) cases per ten thousand in fallen stock. By using meta-analysis, on 11 out of the 12 countries, we found that the probability of detecting additional cases of atypical scrapie in positive flocks was similar to the probability observed in animals slaughtered for human consumption (odds ratio, OR = 1.07, CI_95%: 0.70-1.63) or among fallen stock (OR = 0.78, CI_95%: 0.51-1.2). In contrast, when comparing the two scrapie types, the probability of detecting additional cases in classical scrapie positive flocks was significantly higher than the probability of detecting additional cases in atypical scrapie positive flocks (OR = 32.4, CI_95%: 20.7-50.7).

Conclusions

These results suggest that atypical scrapie is not contagious or has a very low transmissibility under natural conditions compared with classical scrapie. Furthermore this study stressed the importance of standardised data collection to make good use of the analyses undertaken by European countries in their efforts to control atypical and classical scrapie.

Classical sheep scrapie in Great Britain: spatial analysis and identification of environmental and farm-related risk factors

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest that the spatial distribution of classical sheep scrapie in Great Britain is uneven and that certain flock characteristics may be associated with occurrence of the disease. However, the existence of areas of high and low disease-risk may also result from differences in the spatial distribution of environmental characteristics. In this study we explored the spatial pattern of classical scrapie in Great Britain between 2002 and 2005 and investigated the association between disease occurrence and various environmental and farm-related risk factors.

RESULTS

Exploratory spatial analysis: South Wales was found to have a higher density of scrapie-positive farms than the rest of Great Britain. In addition, a small cluster of high-risk farms was identified in the center of this region in which clustering of scrapie-positive farms occurred up to a distance of approximately 40 km. SPATIAL MODELLING: A mixed-effects regression model identified flock-size and soil drainage to be significantly associated with the occurrence of scrapie in England and Wales (area under the curve (AUC) 0.71 +/- 0.01, 95% CI 0.68 - 0.74). The predictive risk map based on the estimated association between these factors and disease occurrence showed most of Wales to be at risk of being confirmed positive for scrapie with areas of highest risk in central and south Wales. In England, areas with the highest risk occurred mainly in the north and the midlands.

CONCLUSION

The observed distribution of scrapie in Great Britain exhibited a definite spatial pattern with south Wales identified as an area of high occurrence. In addition both flock (flock size) and environmental variables (soil drainage) were found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of the disease. However, the model's AUC indicated unexplained variation remaining in the model and the source of this variation may lie in farm-level characteristics rather than spatially-varying ones such as environmental factors.

On the question of proportionality of the count of observed scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background

The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-affected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different – potentially more complex – relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling?

Methods

We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator.

Results

No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes.

Conclusion

Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.