A new model of time scheme for progression of colorectal cancer

Trends in the Stage Distribution of Colorectal Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan: A Nationwide Hospital-claims Data Analysis

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected cancer care. The aim of this study was to clarify the trend of colorectal cancer (CRC) stage distribution in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we used an inpatient medical claims database established at approximately 400 acute care hospitals. From the database, we searched patients who were identified as having the main disease (using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision codes [C18.0-C20]) between January 2018 and December 2020. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the impact of the pandemic on CRC stage distribution each month, and the odds ratio (OR) for late-stage cancer was calculated.

RESULTS

We analyzed 99,992 CRC patients. Logistic regression analysis, including the interaction term between increased late-stage CRC effect during the pandemic period and by each individual month, showed that the OR for late-stage CRC was highest in July during the pandemic, at 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.52) and also significantly higher in September at 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.35).

CONCLUSION

We investigated the trend of CRC stage distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic using a nationwide hospital-claims database in Japan and found that the proportion of early-stage cancers tended to decrease temporarily after the state of emergency declaration due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effect was only temporary.

Complete Blood Count Alterations Prior to the Diagnosis of Colorectal Cancer May Help in the Detection of Synchronous Liver Metastases

Background and Aims: Colorectal cancer (CRC) represents 10% of all cancers worldwide with the highest incidence in developed countries; its incidence is also increasing in middle- and low-income countries. Population screening programs facilitate early diagnosis of the disease. When the diagnosis is carried out in advanced stages, approximately 80% of patients with liver metastases (LM) are considered unresectable at the time of diagnosis. In our study, variations in blood counts prior to CRC diagnosis were analyzed to assess whether they could be useful in identifying smaller, more manageable metastases at earlier stages for more effective treatment. Methods: A study was carried out using complete blood counts (CBCs) from CRC patients, obtained from primary health centers and the La Ribera University Hospital within La Ribera Health Department, Valencian Community, Spain, between July 2012 and September 2020. Data from CRC patients who presented synchronous liver metastasis (CRLM) were compared with those with CRC without LM at diagnosis (CRC patients). Results: Our analysis shows that at least 15 months before CRC diagnosis, a progressive alteration was observed in CBC parameters in both groups. A higher incidence of anemia (p < 0.001) was observed among CRLM patients in the three months prior to CRC diagnosis than in CRC patients showing no LM. Conclusions: A statistically significant deterioration of CBC was observed in patients with advanced-stage CRC and synchronous or early LM (CRLM) in the three months prior to diagnosis. The primary goal of incorporating CBC variations into predictive models is to identify individuals who are at a greater risk of developing metastatic colon cancer, leading to early diagnosis. Our research improves these models by highlighting a more pronounced and rapid decline in hemoglobin levels among CRLM patients. Identification of metastases at an earlier stage when they are smaller, more manageable, and more amenable to treatment may be a valuable tool to prevent their further progression.

COVID-19 Impact on Diagnosis and Staging of Colorectal Cancer: A Single Tertiary Canadian Oncology Center Experience

Background: Public health measures have imposed drastic reductions in cancer screening programs at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with an unknown impact on the diagnosis and staging of colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods: Newly diagnosed CRC cases at the Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal (CHUM) were divided into two groups according to the timeline: pre-pandemic (1 January 2018–12 March 2020), and pandemic (13 March 2020–30 June 2021) periods. Colonoscopy, surgery, and staging at diagnosis during the pandemic period were compared to the pre-pandemic period. Results: 254 CRC diagnoses were made during the pre-pandemic period in comparison to 125 during the pandemic period. Mean diagnosis rates were lower in the pandemic period (7.8 vs. 9.8 diagnoses/month, p = 0.048). Colonoscopy deadlines were less respected in the pandemic period (51.7% vs. 38.3%, p = 0.049). The rate of elective surgery did not differ (2.9 vs. 3.5 surgeries/month, p = 0.39) and mean delays were similar (58.6 vs. 60.4 days, p = 0.77). Stages at diagnosis did not differ (p = 0.17). Most of the delayed colonoscopies led to a stage 0 or I CRC (p = 0.2). Conclusion: In our center, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a decreased rate of CRC diagnosis and increased endoscopic delays without affecting the rate of advanced stage disease. Delays to surgery were quite similar once the CRC diagnosis was established.

Distinguishing excess mutations and increased cell death based on variant allele frequencies

Tumors often harbor orders of magnitude more mutations than healthy tissues. The increased number of mutations may be due to an elevated mutation rate or frequent cell death and correspondingly rapid cell turnover, or a combination of the two. It is difficult to disentangle these two mechanisms based on widely available bulk sequencing data, where sequences from individual cells are intermixed and, thus, the cell lineage tree of the tumor cannot be resolved. Here we present a method that can simultaneously estimate the cell turnover rate and the rate of mutations from bulk sequencing data. Our method works by simulating tumor growth and finding the parameters with which the observed data can be reproduced with maximum likelihood. Applying this method to a real tumor sample, we find that both the mutation rate and the frequency of death may be high.

Tumors frequently harbor an elevated number of mutations, compared to healthy tissue. These extra mutations may be generated either by an increased mutation rate or the presence of cell death resulting in increased cellular turnover and additional cell divisions for tumor growth. Separating the effects of these two factors is a nontrivial problem. Here we present a method which can simultaneously estimate cell turnover rate and genomic mutation rate from bulk sequencing data. Our method is based on the estimation of the parameters of a generative model of tumor growth and mutations. Applying our method to a human hepatocellular carcinoma sample reveals an elevated per cell division mutation rate and high cell turnover.

Aspirin's effect on kinetic parameters of cells contributes to its role in reducing incidence of advanced colorectal adenomas, shown by a multiscale computational study

Aspirin intake has been shown to lead to significant protection against colorectal cancer, for example with an up to twofold reduction in colorectal adenoma incidence rates at higher doses. The mechanisms contributing to protection are not yet fully understood. While aspirin is an anti-inflammatory drug and can thus influence the tumor microenvironment, in vitro and in vivo experiments have recently shown that aspirin can also have a direct effect on cellular kinetics and fitness. It reduces the rate of tumor cell division and increases the rate of cell death. The question arises whether such changes in cellular fitness are sufficient to significantly contribute to the epidemiologically observed protection. To investigate this, we constructed a class of mathematical models of in vivo evolution of advanced adenomas, parameterized it with available estimates, and calculated population level incidence. Fitting the predictions to age incidence data revealed that only a model that included colonic crypt competition can account for the observed age-incidence curve. This model was then used to predict modified incidence patterns if cellular kinetics were altered as a result of aspirin treatment. We found that changes in cellular fitness that were within the experimentally observed ranges could reduce advanced adenoma incidence by a sufficient amount to account for age incidence data in aspirin-treated patient cohorts. While the mechanisms that contribute to the protective effect of aspirin are likely complex and multi-factorial, our study demonstrates that direct aspirin-induced changes of tumor cell fitness can significantly contribute to epidemiologically observed reduced incidence patterns.

Gastrointestinal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

IMPORTANCE

The COVID-19 pandemic has delayed medical consultations, possibly leading to the diagnosis of gastrointestinal cancer at advanced stages.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate stage at diagnosis among patients with gastrointestinal cancer in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study included patients in a hospital-based cancer registry who were diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancer (ie, esophageal, gastric, colorectal, pancreatic, liver, and biliary tract cancers) between January 2016 and December 2020 at 2 tertiary Japanese hospitals.

EXPOSURES

The pre-COVID-19 period was defined as January 2017 to February 2020, and the COVID-19 period was defined as March 2020 to December 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE

Monthly numbers of patients with newly diagnosed cancer were aggregated, classified by stage, and compared.

RESULTS

The study evaluated 5167 patients, including 4218 patients (2825 [67.0%] men; mean [SD] age, 71.3 [10.9] years) in the pre-COVID-19 period and 949 patients (607 [64.0%] men; mean [SD] age, 71.8 [10.7] years) in the COVID-19 period. Comparing the pre-COVID-19 period with the COVID-19 period, significant decreases were observed in the mean (SD) number of patients with newly diagnosed gastric cancer (30.63 [6.62] patients/month vs 22.40 [5.85] patients/month; -26.87% change; P < .001) and colorectal cancer (41.61 [6.81] patients/month vs 36.00 [6.72] patients/month; -13.47% change; P = .03). Significant decreases were also observed in the mean (SD) number of cases of stage I gastric cancer (21.55 [5.66] cases/month vs 13.90 [5.99] cases/month; -35.51% change; P < .001), stage 0 colorectal cancer (10.58 [3.36] cases/month vs 7.10 [4.10] cases/month; -32.89% change; P = .008), and stage I colorectal cancer (10.16 [3.14] cases/month vs 6.70 [2.91] cases/month; -34.04% change; P = .003). No significant increases were observed for esophageal, gastric, pancreatic, liver, or biliary tract cancers. A significant decrease was observed in the mean (SD) number of cases per month of stage II colorectal cancer (7.42 [3.06] cases/month vs 4.80 [1.75] cases/month; -35.32% change; P = .01); a significant increase was observed for the mean (SD) number of cases per month of stage III colorectal cancer (7.18 [2.85] cases/month vs 12.10 [2.42] cases/month; 68.42% change; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of patients in a hospital-based cancer registry form Japan, significantly fewer patients were diagnosed with stage I gastric and colorectal cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the number of screening-detected cancers might have decreased, and colorectal cancer may have been diagnosed at more advanced stages.

Oncogenic Functions and Clinical Significance of Circular RNAs in Colorectal Cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is ranked as the second most commonly diagnosed disease in females and the third in males worldwide. Therefore, the finding of new more reliable biomarkers for early diagnosis, for prediction of metastasis, and resistance to conventional therapies is an important challenge in overcoming the disease. The current review presents circular RNAs (circRNAs) with their unique features as potential prognostic and diagnostic biomarkers in CRC. The review highlights the mechanism of action and the role of circRNAs with oncogenic functions in the CRC as well as the association between their expression and clinicopathological characteristics of CRC patients. The comprehension of the role of oncogenic circRNAs in CRC pathogenesis is growing rapidly and the next step is using them as suitable new drug targets in the personalized treatment of CRC patients.

Application of smart solid lipid nanoparticles to enhance the efficacy of 5-fluorouracil in the treatment of colorectal cancer

5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) is a standard treatment option for colorectal cancer (CRC) but its rapid metabolism and systemic instability (short half-life) has hindered its therapeutic efficacy. The objective of this study was to develop a novel drug delivery system, solid lipid nanoparticle (SLN), capable of delivering high payload of 5-FU to treat CRC. The rational was to improve 5FU-nanocarrier compatibility and therapeutic efficacy. The SLN-loaded 5-FU was developed by utilizing a Strategic and unique Method to Advance and Refine the Treatment (SMART) of CRC through hot and cold homogenization approach. The SLN was made of unique PEGylated lipids and combination of the surfactants. Cytotoxicity studies, clonogenic assay, flow cytometry and confocal imaging were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and cellular uptake of 5FU-SLN4 in HCT-116 cancer cells. Pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters and receptor expressions were determined while tumor efficacy studies were conducted on mouse bearing subcutaneous HCT-116 cancer. Among the all the formulations, 5FU-SLN4 was the most effective with particle size of was 263 ± 3 nm, zeta potential was 0.1 ± 0.02 and entrapment efficiency of 81 ± 10%. The IC50 value of 5FU-SLN4 (7.4 ± 0.02 µM) was 2.3 fold low compared with 5-FU (17.7 ± 0.03 µM). For tumor efficacy studies, 5FU-SLN4 significantly inhibited tumor growth in comparison to 5-FU while area-under plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of 5FU-SLN4 was 3.6 fold high compared with 5-FU. HER2 receptors expression were markedly reduced in 5-FU-SLN4 treated mice compared with 5FU and liver and kidney tissues showed no toxicity at dose of 20 mg/kg. 5FU-SLN4 was highly cytotoxic against HCT-116 cells and significantly inhibited subcutaneous tumor growth in mice compared with 5-FU. This emphasizes the significance of developing a smart nano-delivery system to optimize the delivery efficiency of anticancer drugs to tumors.

CRC COVID: Colorectal cancer services during COVID-19 pandemic. Study protocol for service evaluation

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COVID-19 disrupted healthcare provision worldwide.

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This is a four-phase multi-centre service evaluation of colorectal cancer services.

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Conducted through a research collaborative in the UK, Ireland and the USA.

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The aim is to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on service provision.

Introduction

COVID-19 has had an impact on the provision of colorectal cancer care. The aim of the CRC COVID study is to describe the changes in colorectal cancer services in the UK and USA in response to the pandemic and to understand the long-term impact.

Methods and analysis

This study comprises 4 phases. Phase 1 is a survey of colorectal units that aims to evaluate adherences and deviations from the best practice guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic. Phase 2 is a monthly prospective data collection of service provision that aims to determine the impact of the service modifications on the long-term cancer specific outcomes compared to the national standards. Phase 3 aims to predict costs attributable to the modifications of the CRC services and additional resources required to treat patients whose treatment has been affected by the pandemic. Phase 4 aims to compare the impact of COVID-19 on the NHS and USA model of healthcare in terms of service provision and cost, and to propose a standardised model of delivering colorectal cancer services for future outbreaks.

Ethics and dissemination

This study is a service evaluation and does not require HRA Approval or Ethical Approval in the UK. Local service evaluation registration is required for each participating centre. In the USA, Ethical Approval was granted by the Research and Development Committee. The results of this study will be disseminated to stakeholders, submitted for peer review publications, conference presentations and circulated via social media.

Registration details

Nil.

Management Considerations for the Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Cancer During the Global Covid-19 Pandemic

Objective:

The COVID-19 pandemic requires to conscientiously weigh “timely surgical intervention” for colorectal cancer against efforts to conserve hospital resources and protect patients and health care providers.

Summary Background Data:

Professional societies provided ad-hoc guidance at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic on deferral of surgical and perioperative interventions, but these lack specific parameters to determine the optimal timing of surgery.

Methods:

Using the GRADE system, published evidence was analyzed to generate weighted statements for stage, site, acuity of presentation, and hospital setting to specify when surgery should be pursued, the time and duration of oncologically acceptable delays, and when to utilize nonsurgical modalities to bridge the waiting period.

Results:

Colorectal cancer surgeries—prioritized as emergency, urgent with imminent emergency or oncologically urgent, or elective—were matched against the phases of the pandemic. Surgery in COVID-19-positive patients must be avoided. Emergent and imminent emergent cases should mostly proceed unless resources are exhausted. Standard practices allow for postponement of elective cases and deferral to nonsurgical modalities of stage II/III rectal and metastatic colorectal cancer. Oncologically urgent cases may be delayed for 6(–12) weeks without jeopardizing oncological outcomes. Outside established principles, administration of nonsurgical modalities is not justified and increases the vulnerability of patients.

Conclusions:

The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed already limited health care resources and forced rationing, triage, and prioritization of care in general, specifically of surgical interventions. Established guidelines allow for modifications of optimal timing and type of surgery for colorectal cancer during an unrelated pandemic.

Instantaneous mutation rate in cancer initiation and progression

BACKGROUND

Cancer is one of the leading causes for the morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although substantial studies have been conducted theoretically and experimentally in recent years, it is still a challenge to explore the mechanisms of cancer initiation and progression. The investigation for these problems is very important for the diagnosis of cancer diseases and development of treatment schemes.

RESULTS

To accurately describe the process of cancer initiation, we propose a new concept of gene initial mutation rate based on our recently designed mathematical model using the non-constant mutation rate. Unlike the widely-used average gene mutation rate that depends on the number of mutations, the gene initial mutation rate can be used to describe the initiation process of a single patient. In addition, we propose the instantaneous tumour doubling time that is a continuous function of time based on the non-constant mutation rate. Our proposed concepts are supported by the clinic data of seven patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. The regression results suggest that, compared with the average mutation rate, the estimated initial mutation rate has a larger value of correlation coefficient with the patient survival time. We also provide the estimated tumour size of these seven patients over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed concepts can be used to describe the cancer initiation and progression for different patients more accurately. Since a quantitative understanding of cancer progression is important for clinical treatment, our proposed model and calculated results may provide insights into the development of treatment schemes and also have other clinic implications.

Stochastic modeling of biochemical systems with multistep reactions using state-dependent time delay

To deal with the growing scale of molecular systems, sophisticated modelling techniques have been designed in recent years to reduce the complexity of mathematical models. Among them, a widely used approach is delayed reaction for simplifying multistep reactions. However, recent research results suggest that a delayed reaction with constant time delay is unable to describe multistep reactions accurately. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach using state-dependent time delay to approximate multistep reactions. We first use stochastic simulations to calculate time delay arising from multistep reactions exactly. Then we design algorithms to calculate time delay based on system dynamics precisely. To demonstrate the power of proposed method, two processes of mRNA degradation are used to investigate the function of time delay in determining system dynamics. In addition, a multistep pathway of metabolic synthesis is used to explore the potential of the proposed method to simplify multistep reactions with nonlinear reaction rates. Simulation results suggest that the state-dependent time delay is a promising and accurate approach to reduce model complexity and decrease the number of unknown parameters in the models.

Peritoneal expression of Matrilysin helps identify early post-operative recurrence of colorectal cancer

Recurrence of colorectal cancer (CRC) following a potentially curative resection is a challenging clinical problem. Matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP-7) is over-expressed by CRC cells and supposed to play a major role in CRC cell diffusion and metastasis. MMP-7 RNA expression was assessed by real-time PCR using specific primers in peritoneal washing fluid obtained during surgical procedure. After surgery, patients underwent a regular follow up for assessing recurrence. transcripts for MMP-7 were detected in 31/57 samples (54%). Patients were followed-up (range 20-48 months) for recurrence prevention. Recurrence was diagnosed in 6 out of 55 patients (11%) and two patients eventually died because of this. Notably, all the six patients who had relapsed were positive for MMP-7. Sensitivity and specificity of the test were 100% and 49% respectively. Data from patients have also been corroborated by computational approaches. Public available coloncarcinoma datasets have been employed to confirm MMP7 clinical impact on the disease. Interestingly, MMP-7 expression appeared correlated to Tgfb-1, and correlation of the two factors represented a poor prognostic factor. This study proposes positivity of MMP-7 in peritoneal cavity as a novel biomarker for predicting disease recurrence in patients with CRC.

Identification of neutral tumor evolution across cancer types

Despite extraordinary efforts to profile cancer genomes, interpreting the vast amount of genomic data in the light of cancer evolution remains challenging. Here we demonstrate that neutral tumor evolution results in a power-law distribution of the mutant allele frequencies reported by next-generation sequencing of tumor bulk samples. We find that the neutral power law fits with high precision 323 of 904 cancers from 14 types and from different cohorts. In malignancies identified as evolving neutrally, all clonal selection seemingly occurred before the onset of cancer growth and not in later-arising subclones, resulting in numerous passenger mutations that are responsible for intratumoral heterogeneity. Reanalyzing cancer sequencing data within the neutral framework allowed the measurement, in each patient, of both the in vivo mutation rate and the order and timing of mutations. This result provides a new way to interpret existing cancer genomic data and to discriminate between functional and non-functional intratumoral heterogeneity.

Defining order and timing of mutations during cancer progression: the TO-DAG probabilistic graphical model

Somatic mutations arise and accumulate both during tumor genesis and progression. However, the order in which mutations occur is an open question and the inference of the temporal ordering at the gene level could potentially impact on patient treatment. Thus, exploiting recent observations suggesting that the occurrence of mutations is a non-memoryless process, we developed a computational approach to infer timed oncogenetic directed acyclic graphs (TO-DAGs) from human tumor mutation data. Such graphs represent the path and the waiting times of alterations during tumor evolution. The probability of occurrence of each alteration in a path is the probability that the alteration occurs when all alterations prior to it have occurred. The waiting time between an alteration and the subsequent is modeled as a stochastic function of the conditional probability of the event given the occurrence of the previous one. TO-DAG performances have been evaluated both on synthetic data and on somatic non-silent mutations from prostate cancer and melanoma patients and then compared with those of current well-established approaches. TO-DAG shows high performance scores on synthetic data and recognizes mutations in gatekeeper tumor suppressor genes as trigger for several downstream mutational events in the human tumor data.