Participation and performance trends of East-African runners in Swiss half-marathons and marathons held between 2000 and 2010

Participation and performance characteristics in half-marathon run: a brief narrative review

Half-marathon (HM) is a running sport of increasing popularity in both sexes and in all age groups worldwide during the last years. Many studies have examined several aspects of HM, such as performance and participation trends, sex and age differences, physiological correlates, and training; however, no comprehensive review has ever been contacted to summarize the recently accumulated knowledge. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to review all previous research in this sport, focusing on participation and performance aspects. It was shown that HM runners had similar anthropometric and physiological characteristics as full-marathon runners which should be attributed to the affinity of these two races in terms of metabolic demands. Performance in HM was related with superior scores in aerobic capacity (maximal oxygen uptake, anaerobic threshold and running economy) and training characteristics (sport experience, weekly distance, training speed, frequency of sessions and long single endurance run distance), and lower scores in adiposity-related scores (e.g. body mass, body mass index, body fat percentage and skinfold thickness). Considering the popularity of HM race and the lack of many original studies (compared to FM race), this is an exciting field for scientific research with a large potential for practical applications, since the majority of HM runners are amateur runners in need of sex-, age- and performance-tailored exercise prescription.

Performance and Pacing of Age Groups in Half-Marathon and Marathon

The aim of the present study was to examine the age-related differences in performance and pacing in a half-marathon compared to a marathon. All finishers (n = 9137) in the Ljubljana 2017 half-marathon (n = 7258) and marathon (n = 1853) with available data on split times during the races, were analysed for pacing. Half-marathoners were slower than marathoners among women, (2.77 ± 0.35 versus 2.86 ± 0.39 m·s⁻¹ respectively, p < 0.001), but faster among men (3.14 ± 0.45 versus 3.08 ± 0.46 m·s⁻¹ respectively, p < 0.001). In both race distances, the <25 age group was the fastest and the >54 age group the slowest (p < 0.001). All age groups presented a positive pacing in both race distances and genders, with each segment being slower than the previous one. However, an end spurt was observed in the marathon, but not in the half-marathon. A more even pace in the half-marathon than in the marathon was shown for most age groups. In summary, age-group finishers in the half-marathon decreased running speed across the race, presented a more even pacing than marathoners, and did not show an end spurt.

How much further for the sub-2-hour marathon?

The sub-2-hour marathon is a new barrier in endurance running performance, and it has been widely debated in the scientific community. In this review we present a mathematical model to estimate the possible year when a male could break through the sub-2-hour barrier, and also an estimation of when a female could break Paula Radcliffe’s marathon running record. Further, we present several aspects (ie, physiology, nationality, age, biomechanics, pacing, and drafting) that are associated with marathon running performance in elite runners and, finally, the possible characteristics of the male to break the sub-2-hour barrier. In summary, with the results of the developed equations, it is possible that a male athlete can break through the sub-2-hour barrier in the next decade (with Nike^® Breaking2 performance 1920–2018 [NBP]: y =0.0417x²–14.18x +3,128; year of 2026; without NBP 1920–2018: y =0.045x²–15.12x +3,194; year of 2027). This marathoner will possibly have a maximal oxygen uptake >85 mL∙kg⁻¹∙min⁻¹ and should perform the race at a pacing higher than 85% of maximal oxygen uptake. In addition, this runner should pay more attention to strength training, endurance strength, speed training, and focus on running training at an intensity above the anaerobic threshold. Most likely, this runner originates from East Africa (especially from Ethiopia) and will have an age of ~27 years. For the females, there is poor evidence regarding the physiological profile of the female marathoner who will break Radcliffe’s record, but the available literature suggests that it will not happen any time soon.

Effects of age on marathon finishing time among male amateur runners in Stockholm Marathon 1979-2014

PURPOSE

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the age-related changes in the endurance performance among male amateur marathon runners.

METHODS

Subjects were taken from the 36 Stockholm Marathons held from 1979 through 2014, and age and finishing time were analyzed for a total of 312,342 male runners.

RESULTS

The relation was found to be a second-order polynomial, t = a + bx + cx ², which models 99.7% of the variation in the average running time t as a function of age x. The model shows that the marathon performance of the average runner improves up to age 34.3 ± 2.6 years, thereafter, the performance starts to decline. A quantification of the age's influence on running time shows that it accounts for 4.5% of the total variance seen in the performance data.

CONCLUSION

These outcomes indicate that the effect of age on performance in endurance running events is clearly measurable, quantifiable, and possible to describe. At the same time the findings indicate that other factors, such as training, affect the performance more. A comparison with the elite showed peak performance at the same age, but the rates of change in performance with age, improvement as well as degradation, was found to be higher among the elite.

Performance and age of African and non-African runners in World Marathon Majors races 2000-2014

The age for the fastest marathoners is well investigated, but not the age and nationality of the fastest. We investigated the age of peak marathon performance for the annual top 100 women and men competing in four races of the "World Marathon Majors" (Boston, Berlin, Chicago and New York) and the "Stockholm Marathon" between 2000 and 2014 using mixed-effects regression analyses and one-way ANOVA. Race times of Ethiopian men decreased to 2:14 h:min, but remained unchanged for Kenyan (2:14 h:min), Moroccan (2:15 h:min) and South African (2:18 h:min) men. Race times in Ethiopian (2:34 h:min), Kenyan (2:29 h:min) and South African (2:49 h:min) women showed no changes. Age increased in Ethiopian and South African men to 29.0 ± 5.0 and 32.0 ± 1.0 years, respectively. Age for Kenyan (29.9 ± 2.0 years) and Moroccan (34.9 ± 3.9 years) men remained unchanged. Age remained unchanged for Ethiopian (26.5 ± 2.0 years), Kenyan (30.0 ± 0.8 years) and South African (36.3 ± 7.0 years) women. In summary, Ethiopian men improved marathon race times, but not Ethiopian women. Age increased in Ethiopian men, but not in Ethiopian women. For practical applications, female and male marathoners from Ethiopia were the youngest and the fastest.

Male and female Ethiopian and Kenyan runners are the fastest and the youngest in both half and full marathon

In major marathon races such as the 'World Marathon Majors', female and male East African runners particularly from Ethiopia and Kenya are the fastest. However, whether this trend appears for female and male Ethiopians and Kenyans at recreational level runners (i.e. races at national level) and in shorter road races (e.g. in half-marathon races) has not been studied yet. Thus, the aim of the present study was to examine differences in the performance and the age of female and male runners from East Africa (i.e. Ethiopians and Kenyans) between half- and full marathons. Data from 508,108 athletes (125,894 female and 328,430 male half-marathoners and 10,205 female and 43,489 male marathoners) originating from 126 countries and competing between 1999 and 2014 in all road-based half-marathons and marathons held in one country (Switzerland) were analysed using Chi square (χ(2)) tests, mixed-effects regression analyses and one-way analyses of variance. In half-marathons, 48 women (0.038 %) and 63 men (0.019 %) were from Ethiopia and 80 women (0.063 %) and 134 men (0.040 %) from Kenya. In marathons, three women (0.029 %) and 15 men (0.034 %) were from Ethiopia and two women (0.019 %) and 33 men (0.075 %) from Kenya. There was no statistically significant association between the nationality of East Africans and the format of a race. In both women and men, the fastest race times in half-marathons and marathons were achieved by East African runners (p < 0.001). Ethiopian and Kenyan runners were the youngest in both sexes and formats of race (p < 0.001). In summary, women and men from Ethiopia and Kenya, despite they accounted for <0.1 % in half-marathons and marathons, achieved the fastest race times and were the youngest in both half-marathons and marathons. These findings confirmed in the case of half-marathon the trend previously observed in marathon races for a better performance and a younger age in East African runners from Ethiopia and Kenya.

Increase in participation but decrease in performance in age group mountain marathoners in the 'Jungfrau Marathon': a Swiss phenomenon?

Participation and performance trends for age group marathoners have been investigated for large city marathons such as the ‘New York City Marathon’ but not for mountain marathons. This study investigated participation and trends in performance and sex difference in the mountain marathon ‘Jungfrau Marathon’ held in Switzerland from 2000 to 2014 using single and mixed effects regression analyses. Results were compared to a city marathon (Lausanne Marathon) also held in Switzerland during the same period. Sex difference was calculated using the equation ([race time in women] − [race time in men]/[race time in men] × 100). Changes in sex differences across calendar years and were investigated using linear regression models. In ‘Jungfrau Marathon’, participation in all female and male age groups increased with exception of women in age groups 18–24 and men in age groups 30–34, 40–44 and 60–64 years where participation remained unchanged. In ‘Lausanne Marathon’, participation increased in women in age groups 30–34 to 40–44 years. In men, participation increased in age groups 25–29 to 44–44 years and 50–54 years. In ‘Jungfrau Marathon’ runners became slower across years in age groups 18–24 to 70–74 years. In ‘Lausanne Marathon’, runners became slower across years in age groups 18–24 and 30–34 to 65–69 years, but not for 25–29, 70–74 and 75–79 years. In ‘Jungfrau Marathon’, sex difference increased in age groups 25–29 (from 4 to 10 %) and 60–64 years (from 3 to 8 %) but decreased in age group 40–44 years (from 12 to 6 %). In ‘Lausanne Marathon’, the sex difference showed no changes. In summary, participation increased in most female and male age groups but performance decreased in most age groups for both the mountain marathon ‘Jungfrau Marathon’ and the city marathon ‘Lausanne Marathon’. The sex differences were lower in the ‘Jungfrau Marathon’ (~6–7 %) compared to the ‘Lausanne Marathon’ where the sex difference was ~10–12 % from age groups 18–24 to 55–59 years. These unexpected findings might be a typical Swiss phenomenon. Future studies need to investigate whether this trend can also be found in other endurance sports events held in Switzerland and other mountain marathons held in other countries.