Inferring demographic parameters in bacterial genomic data using Bayesian and hybrid phylogenetic methods

Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

A scalable analytical approach from bacterial genomes to epidemiology

Recent years have seen a remarkable increase in the practicality of sequencing whole genomes from large numbers of bacterial isolates. The availability of this data has huge potential to deliver new insights into the evolution and epidemiology of bacterial pathogens, but the scalability of the analytical methodology has been lagging behind that of the sequencing technology. Here we present a step-by-step approach for such large-scale genomic epidemiology analyses, from bacterial genomes to epidemiological interpretations. A central component of this approach is the dated phylogeny, which is a phylogenetic tree with branch lengths measured in units of time. The construction of dated phylogenies from bacterial genomic data needs to account for the disruptive effect of recombination on phylogenetic relationships, and we describe how this can be achieved. Dated phylogenies can then be used to perform fine-scale or large-scale epidemiological analyses, depending on the proportion of cases for which genomes are available. A key feature of this approach is computational scalability and in particular the ability to process hundreds or thousands of genomes within a matter of hours. This is a clear advantage of the step-by-step approach described here. We discuss other advantages and disadvantages of the approach, as well as potential improvements and avenues for future research. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Genomic population structures of microbial pathogens'.

A 16th century Escherichia coli draft genome associated with an opportunistic bile infection

Escherichia coli – one of the most characterized bacteria and a major public health concern – remains invisible across the temporal landscape. Here, we present the meticulous reconstruction of the first ancient E. coli genome from a 16^th century gallstone from an Italian mummy with chronic cholecystitis. We isolated ancient DNA and reconstructed the ancient E. coli genome. It consisted of one chromosome of 4446 genes and two putative plasmids with 52 genes. The E. coli strain belonged to the phylogroup A and an exceptionally rare sequence type 4995. The type VI secretion system component genes appears to be horizontally acquired from Klebsiella aerogenes, however we could not identify any pathovar specific genes nor any acquired antibiotic resistances. A sepsis mouse assay showed that a closely related contemporary E. coli strain was avirulent. Our reconstruction of this ancient E. coli helps paint a more complete picture of the burden of opportunistic infections of the past.

Ancient DNA from an Italian mummy’s gallstone provides insight into opportunistic E. coli infection.

Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal in Measurably Evolving Populations

Phylogenetic methods can use the sampling times of molecular sequence data to calibrate the molecular clock, enabling the estimation of evolutionary rates and timescales for rapidly evolving pathogens and data sets containing ancient DNA samples. A key aspect of such calibrations is whether a sufficient amount of molecular evolution has occurred over the sampling time window, that is, whether the data can be treated as having come from a measurably evolving population. Here, we investigate the performance of a fully Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal (BETS) in sequence data. The method involves comparing the fit to the data of two models: a model in which the data are accompanied by the actual (heterochronous) sampling times, and a model in which the samples are constrained to be contemporaneous (isochronous). We conducted simulations under a wide range of conditions to demonstrate that BETS accurately classifies data sets according to whether they contain temporal signal or not, even when there is substantial among-lineage rate variation. We explore the behavior of this classification in analyses of five empirical data sets: modern samples of A/H1N1 influenza virus, the bacterium Bordetella pertussis, coronaviruses from mammalian hosts, ancient DNA from Hepatitis B virus, and mitochondrial genomes of dog species. Our results indicate that BETS is an effective alternative to other tests of temporal signal. In particular, this method has the key advantage of allowing a coherent assessment of the entire model, including the molecular clock and tree prior which are essential aspects of Bayesian phylodynamic analyses.

Development of Phylodynamic Methods for Bacterial Pathogens

Phylodynamic methods have been essential to understand the interplay between the evolution and epidemiology of infectious diseases. To date, the field has centered on viruses. Bacterial pathogens are seldom analyzed under such phylodynamic frameworks, due to their complex genome evolution and, until recently, a paucity of whole-genome sequence data sets with rich associated metadata. We posit that the increasing availability of bacterial genomes and epidemiological data means that the field is now ripe to lay the foundations for applying phylodynamics to bacterial pathogens. The development of new methods that integrate more complex genomic and ecological data will help to inform public heath surveillance and control strategies for bacterial pathogens that represent serious threats to human health.

Forensic genomics of a novel Klebsiella quasipneumoniae type from a neonatal intensive care unit in China reveals patterns of colonization, evolution and epidemiology

During March 2017, a neonatal patient with severe diarrhoea subsequently developed septicaemia and died, with Klebsiella isolated as the causative microorganism. In keeping with infection control protocols, the coincident illness of an attending staff member and three other neonates with Klebsiella infection triggered an outbreak response, leading to microbiological assessment of isolates collected from the staff member and all 21 co-housed neonates. Multilocus sequence typing and genomic sequencing identified that the isolates from the 21 neonates were of a new Klebsiella sequence type, ST2727, and taxonomically belonged to K. quasipneumoniae subsp. similipneumoniae (formerly referred to as KpIIB). Genomic characterization showed that the isolated ST2727 strains had diverged from other K. quasipneumoniae subsp. similipneumoniae strains at least 90 years ago, whereas the neonatal samples were highly similar with a genomic divergence of 3.6 months. There was no relationship to the Klebsiella isolate from the staff member. This demonstrates that no transmission occurred from staff to patient or between patients. Rather, the data suggest that ST2727 colonized each neonate from a common hospital source. Sequence-based analysis of the genomes revealed several genes for antimicrobial resistance and some virulence features, but suggest that ST2727 is neither extremely-drug resistant nor hypervirulent. Our results highlight the clinical significance and genomic properties of ST2727 and urge genome-based measures be implemented for diagnostics and surveillance within hospital environments. Additionally, the present study demonstrates the need to scale the power of genomic analysis in retrospective studies where relatively few samples are available.

Introduction of Mycobacterium ulcerans disease in the Bankim Health District of Cameroon follows damming of the Mapé River

Buruli ulcer (BU) is an emerging ulcerative skin disease caused by infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans. Efforts to control its spread have been hampered by our limited understanding of M. ulcerans reservoirs and transmission, and the factors leading to the emergence of BU disease in a particular region. In this report we investigate an anecdotal link between damming the Mapé River in Cameroon and the emergence of BU in the Health Districts bordering Lake Bankim, the impoundment created by the Mapé dam. We used bacterial population genomics and molecular dating to find compelling support for a 2000 M. ulcerans introduction event that followed about 10 years after the filling of the newly created impoundment in 1988. We compared the genomic reconstructions with high-resolution satellite imagery to investigate what major environmental alterations might have driven the emergence of the new focus.

A sister lineage of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex discovered in the African Great Lakes region

The human- and animal-adapted lineages of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) are thought to have expanded from a common progenitor in Africa. However, the molecular events that accompanied this emergence remain largely unknown. Here, we describe two MTBC strains isolated from patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis, representing an as-yet-unknown lineage, named Lineage 8 (L8), seemingly restricted to the African Great Lakes region. Using genome-based phylogenetic reconstruction, we show that L8 is a sister clade to the known MTBC lineages. Comparison with other complete mycobacterial genomes indicate that the divergence of L8 preceded the loss of the cobF genome region - involved in the cobalamin/vitamin B12 synthesis - and gene interruptions in a subsequent common ancestor shared by all other known MTBC lineages. This discovery further supports an East African origin for the MTBC and provides additional molecular clues on the ancestral genome reduction associated with adaptation to a pathogenic lifestyle.

The human- and animal-adapted lineages of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) are thought to be evolved from a common progenitor in Africa. Here, the authors identify two MTBC strains isolated from patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, representing an as-yet-unknown lineage further supporting an East African origin for the MTBC.

In Search of Covariates of HIV-1 Subtype B Spread in the United States-A Cautionary Tale of Large-Scale Bayesian Phylogeography

Infections with HIV-1 group M subtype B viruses account for the majority of the HIV epidemic in the Western world. Phylogeographic studies have placed the introduction of subtype B in the United States in New York around 1970, where it grew into a major source of spread. Currently, it is estimated that over one million people are living with HIV in the US and that most are infected with subtype B variants. Here, we aim to identify the drivers of HIV-1 subtype B dispersal in the United States by analyzing a collection of 23,588 pol sequences, collected for drug resistance testing from 45 states during 2004-2011. To this end, we introduce a workflow to reduce this large collection of data to more computationally-manageable sample sizes and apply the BEAST framework to test which covariates associate with the spread of HIV-1 across state borders. Our results show that we are able to consistently identify certain predictors of spread under reasonable run times across datasets of up to 10,000 sequences. However, the general lack of phylogenetic structure and the high uncertainty associated with HIV trees make it difficult to interpret the epidemiological relevance of the drivers of spread we are able to identify. While the workflow we present here could be applied to other virus datasets of a similar scale, the characteristic star-like shape of HIV-1 phylogenies poses a serious obstacle to reconstructing a detailed evolutionary and spatial history for HIV-1 subtype B in the US.

The molecular clock of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The molecular clock and its phylogenetic applications to genomic data have changed how we study and understand one of the major human pathogens, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), the etiologic agent of tuberculosis. Genome sequences of MTB strains sampled at different times are increasingly used to infer when a particular outbreak begun, when a drug-resistant clone appeared and expanded, or when a strain was introduced into a specific region. Despite the growing importance of the molecular clock in tuberculosis research, there is a lack of consensus as to whether MTB displays a clocklike behavior and about its rate of evolution. Here we performed a systematic study of the molecular clock of MTB on a large genomic data set (6,285 strains), covering different epidemiological settings and most of the known global diversity. We found that sampling times below 15-20 years were often insufficient to calibrate the clock of MTB. For data sets where such calibration was possible, we obtained a clock rate between 1x10-8 and 5x10-7 nucleotide changes per-site-per-year (0.04-2.2 SNPs per-genome-per-year), with substantial differences between clades. These estimates were not strongly dependent on the time of the calibration points as they changed only marginally when we used epidemiological isolates (sampled in the last 40 years) or three ancient DNA samples (about 1,000 years old) to calibrate the tree. Additionally, the uncertainty and the discrepancies in the results of different methods were sometimes large, highlighting the importance of using different methods, and of considering carefully their assumptions and limitations.

Evolution of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) over Multiple Seasons in New South Wales, Australia

There is an ongoing global pandemic of human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection that results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality. In Australia, RSV is a major cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI). Nevertheless, little is known about the extent and origins of the genetic diversity of RSV in Australia, nor the factors that shape this diversity. We have conducted a genome-scale analysis of RSV infections in New South Wales (NSW). RSV genomes were successfully sequenced for 144 specimens collected between 2010⁻2016. Of these, 64 belonged to the RSVA and 80 to the RSVB subtype. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a wide diversity of RSV lineages within NSW and that both subtypes evolved rapidly in a strongly clock-like manner, with mean rates of approximately 6⁻8 × 10^-4 nucleotide substitutions per site per year. There was only weak evidence for geographic clustering of sequences, indicative of fluid patterns of transmission within the infected population and no evidence of any clustering by patient age such that viruses in the same lineages circulate through the entire host population. Importantly, we show that both subtypes circulated concurrently in NSW with multiple introductions into the Australian population in each year and only limited evidence for multi-year persistence.