Examining the association between paramedic transport to the emergency department and hospital admission: a population-based cohort study

Identifying Features of a System of Practice to Inform a Contemporary Competency Framework for Paramedics in Canada

INTRODUCTION

Paramedic practice is highly variable, occurs in diverse contexts, and involves the assessment and management of a range of presentations of varying acuity across the lifespan. As a result, attempts to define paramedic practice have been challenging and incomplete. This has led to inaccurate or under-representations of practice that can ultimately affect education, assessment, and the delivery of care. In this study, we outline our efforts to better identify, explore, and represent professional practice when developing a national competency framework for paramedics in Canada.

METHODS

We used a systems-thinking approach to identify the settings, contexts, features, and influences on paramedic practice in Canada. This approach makes use of the role and influence of system features at the microsystem, mesosystem, exosystem, macrosystem, supra-macrosystem, and chronosystem levels in ways that can provide new insights. We used methods such as rich pictures, diagramming, and systems mapping to explore relationships between these contexts and features.

FINDINGS

When we examine the system of practice in paramedicine, multiple layers become evident and within them we start to see details of features that ought to be considered in any future competency development work. Our exploration of the system highlights that paramedic practice considers the person receiving care, caregivers, and paramedics. It involves collaboration within co-located and dispersed teams that are composed of other health and social care professionals, public safety personnel, and others. Practice is enacted across varying geographical, cultural, social, and technical contexts and is subject to multiple levels of policy, regulatory, and legislative influence.

CONCLUSION

Using a systems-thinking approach, we developed a detailed systems map of paramedic practice in Canada. This map can be used to inform the initial stages of a more representative, comprehensive, and contemporary national competency framework for paramedics in Canada.

Prehospital prediction of hospital admission for emergent acuity patients transported by paramedics: A population-based cohort study using machine learning

INTRODUCTION

The closest emergency department (ED) may not always be the optimal hospital for certain stable high acuity patients if further distanced ED's can provide specialized care or are less overcrowded. Machine learning (ML) predictions may support paramedic decision-making to transport a subgroup of emergent patients to a more suitable, albeit more distanced, ED if hospital admission is unlikely. We examined whether characteristics known to paramedics in the prehospital setting were predictive of hospital admission in emergent acuity patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a population-level cohort study using four ML algorithms to analyze ED visits of the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019 in Ontario, Canada. We included all adult patients (≥18 years) transported to the ED by paramedics with an emergent Canadian Triage Acuity Scale score. We included eight characteristic classes as model predictors that are recorded at ED triage. All ML algorithms were trained and assessed using 10-fold cross-validation to predict hospital admission from the ED. Predictive model performance was determined using the area under curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals and probabilistic accuracy using the Brier Scaled score. Variable importance scores were computed to determine the top 10 predictors of hospital admission.

RESULTS

All machine learning algorithms demonstrated acceptable accuracy in predicting hospital admission (AUC 0.77-0.78, Brier Scaled 0.22-0.24). The characteristics most predictive of admission were age between 65 to 105 years, referral source from a residential care facility, presenting with a respiratory complaint, and receiving home care.

DISCUSSION

Hospital admission was accurately predicted based on patient characteristics known prehospital to paramedics prior to arrival. Our results support consideration of policy modification to permit certain emergent acuity patients to be transported to a further distanced ED. Additionally, this study demonstrates the utility of ML in paramedic and prehospital research.

Mobile Integrated Health Interventions for Older Adults: A Systematic Review

Background and Objectives

Mobile integrated health (MIH) interventions have not been well described in older adult populations. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the characteristics and effectiveness of MIH programs on health-related outcomes among older adults.

Research Design and Methods

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, CINAHL, AgeLine, Social Work Abstracts, and The Cochrane Library through June 2021 for randomized controlled trials or cohort studies evaluating MIH among adults aged 65 and older in the general community. Studies were screened for eligibility against predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Using at least 2 independent reviewers, quality was appraised using the Downs and Black checklist and study characteristics and findings were synthesized and evaluated for potential bias.

Results

Screening of 2,160 records identified 15 studies. The mean age of participants was 67 years. The MIH interventions varied in their focus, community paramedic training, types of assessments and interventions delivered, physician oversight, use of telemedicine, and post-visit follow-up. Studies reported significant reductions in emergency call volume (5 studies) and immediate emergency department (ED) transports (3 studies). The 3 studies examining subsequent ED visits and 4 studies examining readmission rates reported mixed results. Studies reported low adverse event rates (5 studies), high patient and provider satisfaction (5 studies), and costs equivalent to or less than usual paramedic care (3 studies).

Discussion and Implications

There is wide variability in MIH provider training, program coordination, and quality-based metrics, creating heterogeneity that make definitive conclusions challenging. Nonetheless, studies suggest MIH reduces emergency call volume and ED transport rates while improving patient experience and reducing overall health care costs.

Not only COVID-19 disease impacts ambulance emergency demands but also lockdowns and quarantines

BACKGROUND

The pandemic has impacted both patients infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and patients who seek emergency assistance due to other health issues. Changes in emergency demands are expected to have occurred during the pandemic, the objective of this investigation is to characterize the changes in ambulance emergency demands during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Vaud State of Switzerland. The goal of this research is to identify the collateral effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency demands. To do so, this study quantifies the differences in health issues, level of severity, and patients' sociodemographic characteristics (age, location, gender) prior to and during the outbreak.

METHOD

This is a retrospective, descriptive and comparative statistical analysis of all ambulance emergency missions from 2018 to 2020 (n = 107,150) in the State of Vaud in Switzerland. Variables analyzed were the number of ambulance missions, patient age and gender, health issues, severity (NACA scores), number of non-transports, mission times and locations. Variables were compared between prepandemic and pandemic situations across years and months. Comparative analysis used bivariate analysis, χ2 test, Student's t test, and Mann‒Whitney U test.

RESULTS

The pandemic has had two major impacts on the population's emergency demands. The first appears to be due to COVID-19, with an increase in respiratory distress cases that doubled in November 2020. The second relates to the implementation of lockdown and quarantine measures for the population and the closures of restaurants and bars. These might explain the decrease in both the number of traumas and intoxications, reaching more than 25% and 28%, respectively. An increase in prehospital emergency demands by the older population, which accounted for 53% of all demands in 2020, is measured.

CONCLUSION

Collateral effects occurred during 2020 and were not only due to the pandemic but also due to protective measures deployed relative to the population. This work suggests that more targeted reflections and interventions concerning the most vulnerable group, the population of people 65 and older, should be of high priority. Gaining generalizable knowledge from the COVID-19 pandemic in prehospital settings is critical for the management of future pandemics or other unexpected disasters.

Inclusion of patient-level emergency department characteristics to classify potentially redirectable visits to subacute care: a modified Delphi consensus study

BACKGROUND

Most patients transported by Ontario paramedics to the emergency department have non-emergent conditions and may be more appropriately served by subacute community-based care centres. We sought to determine consensus on a set of patient characteristics that could be useful to classify retrospective emergency department visits that had a high probability of being primary care-like and potentially redirectable to a subacute care centre by paramedics.

METHODS

We conducted a modified Delphi study to assess expert consensus on characteristics of patients transported by paramedics to the emergency department from August to October 2021. An expert Delphi committee was constructed of emergency and family physicians in Ontario using purposive sampling. Experts rated whether each characteristic was useful to be included in a classification to identify potentially redirectable visits retrospectively, as well as characteristic details (e.g., upper and lower bounds). Consensus was considered 75% agreement.

RESULTS

Sixteen experts participated in the study; the experts were mostly male (75%) and evenly divided between emergency and family medicine. After 2 rounds, consensus was achieved on 8 of 9 characteristics (89%). Four characteristics were determined as useful to classify potentially redirectable emergency department visits: age (81%), triage acuity (100%), specialist consult in the emergency department (94%) and emergency department visit outcome (81%). Specifications of each characteristic were refined as follows: young and middle-aged adults with a non-emergent triage acuity, did not receive a specialist physician consult in the emergency department and discharged from the emergency department.

INTERPRETATION

Strong consensus was achieved to specify a classification system for potentially redirectable emergency department visits. These results will be combined with knowledge of which subacute care centres could conduct the main physician interventions to retrospectively identify emergency department visits that could have been suitable for paramedic redirection for further research.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ID ISRCTN22901977.

Validation of a classification to identify emergency department visits suitable for subacute and virtual care models: a randomised single-blinded agreement study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Redirecting suitable patients from the emergency department (ED) to alternative subacute settings may assist in reducing ED overcrowding while delivering equivalent care. The Emergency Department Avoidance Classification (EDAC) was constructed to retrospectively classify ED visits that may have been suitable for safe management in a subacute or virtual clinical setting. The EDAC has established face and content validity but has not been tested against a reference standard as a criterion.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary objective is to examine the agreement between the EDAC and ED physician judgements in retrospectively identifying ED visits suitable for subacute care management. Our secondary objective is to assess the validity of ED physicians' judgement as a criterion standard. Our tertiary objective is to examine how the ED physician's perception of a virtual ED care alternative correlates with the EDAC.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A randomised single-centre, single-blinded agreement study. We will randomly select ED charts between 1 January and 31 December 2019 from an academic hospital in Hamilton, Canada. ED charts will be randomly assigned to participating ED physicians who will evaluate if this ED visit could have been managed appropriately and safely in a subacute and/or virtual model of care. Each chart will be reviewed by two physicians independently. We compute our needed sample size to be 79 charts. We will use kappa statistics to measure inter-rater agreement. A repeated measures regression model of physician ratings will provide variance estimates that we will use to assess the intraclass correlation of ED physician ratings and the EDAC.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Board (2022-14625). If validated, the EDAC may provide an ED-based classification to identify potentially avoidable ED visits, monitor ED visit trends, and proactively delineate those best suited for subacute or virtual care models.

Increased demand for paramedic transports to the emergency department in Ontario, Canada: a population-level descriptive study from 2010 to 2019

Purpose

We examined changes in annual paramedic transport incidence over the ten years prior to COVID-19 in comparison to increases in population growth and emergency department (ED) visitation by walk-in.

Methods

We conducted a population-level cohort study using the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019 in Ontario, Canada. We included all patients triaged in the ED who arrived by either paramedic transport or walk-in. We clustered geographical regions using the Local Health Integration Network boundaries. Descriptive statistics, rate ratios (RR), and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to explore population-adjusted changes in transport volumes.

Results

Overall incidence of paramedic transports increased by 38.3% (n = 264,134), exceeding population growth fourfold (9.4%) and walk-in ED visitation threefold (13.4%). Population-adjusted transport rates increased by 26.2% (rate ratio 1.26, 95% CI 1.26–1.27) compared to 3.4% for ED visit by walk-in (rate ratio 1.03, 95% CI 1.03–1.04). Patient and visit characteristics remained consistent (age, gender, triage acuity, number of comorbidities, ED disposition, 30-day repeat ED visits) across the years of study. The majority of transports in 2019 had non-emergent triage scores (60.0%) and were discharged home directly from the ED (63.7%). The largest users were persons aged 65 or greater (43.7%). The majority of transports occurred in urbanized regions, though rural and northern regions experienced similar paramedic transport growth rates.

Conclusion

There was a substantial increase in the demand for paramedic transportation. Growth in paramedic demand outpaced population growth markedly and may continue to surge alongside population aging. Increases in the rate of paramedic transports per population were not bound to urbanized regions, but were province-wide. Our findings indicate a mounting need to develop innovative solutions to meet the increased demand on paramedic services and to implement long-term strategies across provincial paramedic systems.

Descriptive Study of Ambulance Attendances for Older Adults with and without Dementia in Western Australia

OBJECTIVE

To describe and compare characteristics of ambulance attendances for older adults with and without dementia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using electronic patient care records from the main ambulance service in Western Australia. All attendances for people aged 65 years or older in the years 2019-21 were included. Dementia status was adjudicated from the clinical history and medication lists. Patient and case characteristics of those with and without dementia were compared and stratified by type of residence.

RESULTS

There were 277,996 emergency ambulance attendances made by 124,711 older adults, of whom 23.5% had dementia. The mean number of attendances per person was 3.3 in the dementia cohort vs 2.0 in those without dementia. Falls were the leading reason for ambulance attendance. People with dementia were significantly frailer, required longer at-scene intervals, were less likely to be transported as the highest priority, and had lower 30-day survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Dementia is common amongst older adults attended by paramedics and is associated with higher ambulance utilization per person. People with dementia attended by paramedics have stronger signals of vulnerability, such as increased frailty. As the number of people living with dementia increases in the future, there are implications for workforce training and service planning. There are opportunities for developing alternatives to emergency department transportation for some people with dementia.