Applied causal inference methods for sequential mediators

Pesticide risk perception as an attitudinal mediator: Exploratory research with farm managers and consumers

Pesticide use poses significant risks to human health and the environment. However, the public perception of pesticides is characterized by a number of factors, including risk perception. This study aimed to investigate the role of risk perception in two models: a) as a mediator between personal norms and pro-environmental attitudes of farm managers and b) as a mediator of trust in the purchase intention of consumers. For farmers, the Norm Activation Model was used. A mediation model explored the relationship between personal norms, risk perception, and pro-environmental attitudes. Among consumers a trust model, based on trust in food toolkit, was used. The risk perception and knowledge were examined as mediators between trust in the food system and purchase intentions. Data were collected in-person through questionnaires from 37 farm managers and 202 consumers in Brazil. Results indicate that risk perception is a critical factor influencing both farmers' and consumers' decisions. While farm managers' pro-environmental attitudes were partially mediated by risk perception, consumers' purchase intentions were primarily driven by a combination of risk perception, knowledge, and trust. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions, including public education, regulatory enhancements, and transparent communication, to mitigate pesticide-related risks.

Walking away from depression: the mediating role of walking activity in depression impacting blood glucose levels of people with diabetes or prediabetes

Introduction

Depression can exacerbate diabetes by impairing self-care behaviors and increasing the risk of complication; however, the underlying mechanism is still unclear. Given the suggested associations between walking activity, depression status, and blood glucose levels this study explores the intricate relationship between depression and blood glucose (BG) control, with a focus on walking activity as a behavioral mediator. The purpose of this study is to examine walking activity's mediating role in depression's impact on BG levels, investigating and validating the non-linear association between BG levels and walking activity. This retrospective real-world study demonstrates the potential of regular walking activity as a simple and accessible intervention to mitigate the negative effects of depression on BG levels in T2D and prediabetes.

Methods

A cohort of 989 users with T2D and prediabetes, who regularly tracked their steps levels and BG levels for 12 months using the Dario digital health platform was evaluated. The mediating role of the monthly average number of steps on the relationship between the self-reported depression status and lagged monthly average BG was assessed. Additionally, the association between monthly walking activity and monthly average BG was tested using a piecewise linear mixed effects model.

Results

Users with self-reported depression demonstrated increased BG levels compared to users without depression (B=8.00, P=.01). The association between depression and monthly average number of steps was significant (B=-.27, P<.005) and monthly average number of steps significantly predicted the following months' average BG (B=-.81, P=.001), adjusting for depression. The monthly average number of steps significantly mediated the effect of self-reported depression on the following month's average BG (M=.22, P<.005). Further sensitivity analysis demonstrated model robustness over various periods. Finally, non-linear dynamics of walking activity over time was validated using unseen data showing a decrease in monthly average BG for users with over an average of 400 steps per day (B=-1.87, P<.01).

Discussion

This study shows how regular walking may reduce the negative impact of depression on BG levels in people with T2D. Our findings advocate for the integration of walking activity into treatment protocols as a cost-effective, accessible intervention strategy to improve glycemic management and depressive symptoms in this population.

Mediation Analysis of Racial Disparity for Infant Mortality Using Bayesian Estimation of Potential Outcomes

Background/Objectives: While the overall rate of infant mortality in the United States has been decreasing over decades, the racial disparity, defined as the difference between races, has increased. Even though a person's race cannot change, it may be possible to identify factors that mediate or cause this racial disparity. Evaluating the factors that mediate or cause racial disparity is imperative because current clinical recommendations could be based on preventative modalities that are more effective for white women and their children. Methods: A Bayesian approach modeled the data from the full United States National Natality Database for the years 2016 to 2018. The binomial rate parameters for each combination of race and mediators provided the potential outcomes. Estimating the mediation outcomes, including total effect, controlled direct effect, mediated effect, and proportion mediated used common counterfactual definitions for these probabilities. Results: Maternal smoking, low birthweight, and teenage maternity interacted in causing racial disparity for infant mortality. The proportion of racial disparity attributable to low birthweight was approximately 0.73, with only small variations attributable to maternal smoking and teenage maternity. Conclusions: The novel approach facilitated modeling of multiple mediators. Low birthweight caused racial disparity for infant mortality. The model can be extended to evaluate additional mediational factors with the objective of identifying the preventable causes.

Socioeconomic position, family context, and child cognitive development

Socioeconomic position (SEP) may have different effects on cognitive development and family context could play a role in this association. This work aimed to analyse the role of socioeconomic positions, measured via various indicators collected longitudinally, in cognitive development at 7-11 years of age, evaluating the role of family context as a potential mediator. The study sample included 394 and 382 children from the INMA Gipuzkoa and Valencia cohorts, respectively. SEP indicators were assessed during pregnancy (family social class, parental education, employment, and disposable income) and at 7 (Gipuzkoa) and 11 (Valencia) years of age (At Risk of Poverty or Social Exclusion (AROPE)). Family context and cognitive development were measured with the Haezi-Etxadi Family Assessment Scale 7-11 (HEFAS 7-11) and Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (Raven's CPM), respectively. Linear regression models were developed to assess the relationships between (a) SEP-family context, (b) SEP-cognitive development, and (c) family context-cognitive development, adjusting for a priori-selected confounders. Simple and multiple mediation analyses were performed to explore the role of family context in the SEP-cognitive development relationship. Lower SEP was related with a lower cognitive score, this association being particularly robust for family social class. SEP indicators were related to subscales of family context, in particular those regarding cognitive stimulation, parental stress, and parenting. A relationship was also found between these three subscales and child cognitive development, mediating the effect of family social class on child cognition by 5.2, 5.5, and 10.8%, respectively, and 12.0% jointly.    Conclusion: Both family SEP and context contribute to a child's cognitive development. Equalising policies and positive parenting programmes could contribute to improving cognitive development in children. What is Known: • Parental social class, education, and employment status have been widely employed to measure socioeconomic position. What is New: • This work focuses on standard measurements of socioeconomic position but also other economic indicators such as the EHII and AROPE, and their effect on child cognitive development and family context. • Promotion of cognitive and linguistic development, parental stress and conflict, and parental profile fostering child development mediated the effect of family social class on cognitive development.

Maternal mental health disorders and offspring asthma and allergic diseases: The role of child mental health

BACKGROUND

Maternal psychological stress during pregnancy and postnatally has been shown to be associated with offspring atopic diseases (asthma, atopic dermatitis and allergic rhinitis). The aim of this study was to assess whether this association may be attributable to the child's own mental health disorders.

METHOD

The study population included 15,092 twin children born 2002-2010 in Sweden. Questionnaire data at age 9 years was linked to national patient- and prescription registers. Maternal mental health during pregnancy and 3 years postnatally were identified from diagnosis and medication data (depression, anxiety and stress disorders). Atopic diseases in children were identified from questionnaires, diagnosis and medication data. Child mental health status (depression and anxiety) was identified from questionnaires. Three-way decomposition methods tested for mediation or interaction by child mental health disorders.

RESULTS

Maternal mental health disorders were associated with most child atopic diseases including asthma aRR1.36 (95% CI 1.12, 1.60), and child mental health disorders, aRR1.73 (95% CI 1.56, 1.92). Children with mental health disorders were comorbid for atopic diseases with only asthma reaching statistical significance, aRR1.29 (95% CI 1.14, 1.47). Three-way decomposition found that mediation or interaction by child mental health disorders did not account for the mother mental health and child atopy associations except in parent-report asthma, where child mental health disorders mediated 13.4% (95% CI 2.1, 24.7) of the effect, but not for objectively defined (diagnosis and medication) asthma.

CONCLUSION

The associations between maternal mental health and child asthma and allergic diseases do not appear to be attributable to child mental health disorders.