Risk factors for mortality among patients admitted with upper gastrointestinal bleeding at a tertiary hospital: a prospective cohort study

Bacterial vampirism mediated through taxis to serum

Bacteria of the family Enterobacteriaceae are associated with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and bacteremia and are a leading cause of death, from sepsis, for individuals with inflammatory bowel diseases. The bacterial behaviors and mechanisms underlying why these bacteria are prone to bloodstream entry remain poorly understood. Herein, we report that clinical isolates of non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica serovars, Escherichia coli, and Citrobacter koseri are rapidly attracted toward sources of human serum. To simulate GI bleeding, we utilized an injection-based microfluidics device and found that femtoliter volumes of human serum are sufficient to induce bacterial attraction to the serum source. This response is orchestrated through chemotaxis and the chemoattractant L-serine, an amino acid abundant in serum that is recognized through direct binding by the chemoreceptor Tsr. We report the first crystal structures of Salmonella Typhimurium Tsr in complex with L-serine and identify a conserved amino acid recognition motif for L-serine shared among Tsr orthologues. We find Tsr to be widely conserved among Enterobacteriaceae and numerous World Health Organization priority pathogens associated with bloodstream infections. Lastly, we find that Enterobacteriaceae use human serum as a source of nutrients for growth and that chemotaxis and the chemoreceptor Tsr provide a competitive advantage for migration into enterohemorrhagic lesions. We define this bacterial behavior of taxis toward serum, colonization of hemorrhagic lesions, and the consumption of serum nutrients as 'bacterial vampirism', which may relate to the proclivity of Enterobacteriaceae for bloodstream infections.

Manner of death determination in a case of gastric mucosal tears

Gastric tears are rarely described in the forensic pathological literature, although they can lead to a fatal acute exsanguination. Such lesions can arise from several conditions leading to an increased intragastric pressure, such as Mallory Weiss syndrome, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, acute barotrauma and operative procedures, showing peculiar morphological features. We present a case of a 32-year-old drug addicted white woman found dead in a pool of blood in the house of her drug dealer, after taking a dose of intravenous heroin. At autopsy, abundant bloody gastric content and multiple and long gastric tears, extending from the cardias and fundus regions to the gastric corpus were observed; one of them involved the subserous region, resulting in a gastric wall rupture. The victim had no history of recent vomiting and of gastro-intestinal pathologies. Drugs and ethanol levels detected in the specimens of the victim were not consistent with lethal concentrations, thus the death was attributed to acute exsanguination. After reviewing the literature, it turned out that morphological aspects of the gastric tears, such as number, size and topographical distribution, observed at autopsy were atypical compared to those of typical gastric lacerations.

Bacterial vampirism mediated through taxis to serum

Bacteria of the family Enterobacteriaceae are associated with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and bacteremia and are a leading cause of death, from sepsis, for individuals with inflammatory bowel diseases. The bacterial behaviors and mechanisms underlying why these bacteria are prone to bloodstream entry remains poorly understood. Herein, we report that clinical isolates of non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica serovars, Escherichia coli, and Citrobacter koseri are rapidly attracted toward sources of human serum. To simulate GI bleeding, we utilized a custom injection-based microfluidics device and found that femtoliter volumes of human serum are sufficient to induce the bacterial population to swim toward and aggregate at the serum source. This response is orchestrated through chemotaxis, and a major chemical cue driving chemoattraction is L-serine, an amino acid abundant in serum that is recognized through direct binding by the chemoreceptor Tsr. We report the first crystal structures of Salmonella Typhimurium Tsr in complex with L-serine and identify a conserved amino acid recognition motif for L-serine shared among Tsr orthologues. By mapping the phylogenetic distribution of this chemoreceptor we found Tsr to be widely conserved among Enterobacteriaceae and numerous World Health Organization priority pathogens associated with bloodstream infections. Lastly, we find that Enterobacteriaceae use human serum as a source of nutrients for growth and that chemotaxis and the chemoreceptor Tsr provides a competitive advantage for migration into enterohaemorrhagic lesions. We term this bacterial behavior of taxis toward serum, colonization of hemorrhagic lesions, and the consumption of serum nutrients, as 'bacterial vampirism' which may relate to the proclivity of Enterobacteriaceae for bloodstream infections.

Prospective observational study on clinical and epidemiological profile of adult patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected upper gastrointestinal bleed

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Bleeding from the upper gastrointestinal (GI) tract is one of the common medical emergencies. In this study, we assessed patients' socio-demographic and clinical characteristics and the association of clinical characteristics with treatment outcomes among patients with suspected upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB) presenting to the emergency department (ED). At present, there is a scarcity of data on UGIB in Northern part of India.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

The study was a single-center, prospective observational study conducted at an urban tertiary care center. Consecutive patients with suspected UGIB were enrolled in the study from August 2020 to February 2022. A detailed history was obtained, including demographic data such as age and sex, presenting complaints, history of presenting illness, history related to co-morbidities, addiction, and drug history. Pre-endoscopic Rockall and Glasgow-Blatchford Score were calculated for each patient. The patients were subsequently followed up till discharge from the hospital. The final outcomes with regard to mortality, need for blood transfusion, length of emergency department stay, and discharge were noted.

RESULT

141 patients were included in the study. The mean age of the patients with suspected UGIB was 48 ± 14 years. 115 (81.6%) patients were male. The most common co-morbidity was chronic liver disease (40;28.4%). The most frequent presenting complaint in this study was hematemesis (96; 68.1%), followed by melena (76;53.9%). The mean (Standard Deviation, SD) of the Rockall Score was 2.46 ± 1.75. The mean (SD) of the Glasgow Blatchford Score was 12.46 ± 3.15 in patients with UGIB.

CONCLUSION

In our study, hematemesis was the most prevalent symptom of suspected UGIB, followed by melena. Portal hypertension was the most common cause of UGIB. Most frequent comorbidities in patients suspected of UGIB were alcohol intake, Nonsteriodal Antiinflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) abuse, and co-morbidities such as underlying chronic liver disease, hypertension, and diabetes. Early endoscopy can be of great utility to reduce morbidity and mortality.

One in four patients with gastrointestinal bleeding develops shock or hemodynamic instability: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hemodynamic instability and shock are associated with untoward outcomes in gastrointestinal bleeding. However, there are no studies in the existing literature on the proportion of patients who developed these outcomes after gastrointestinal bleeding.

AIM

To determine the pooled event rates in the available literature and specify them based on the bleeding source.

METHODS

The protocol was registered on PROSPERO in advance (CRD42021283258). A systematic search was performed in three databases (PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL) on 14th October 2021. Pooled proportions with 95%CI were calculated with a random-effects model. A subgroup analysis was carried out based on the time of assessment (on admission or during hospital stay). Heterogeneity was assessed by Higgins and Thompson's I2 statistics. The Joanna Briggs Institute Prevalence Critical Appraisal Tool was used for the risk of bias assessment. The Reference Citation Analysis (https://www.referencecitationanalysis.com/) tool was applied to obtain the latest highlight articles.

RESULTS

We identified 11589 records, of which 220 studies were eligible for data extraction. The overall proportion of shock and hemodynamic instability in general gastrointestinal bleeding patients was 0.25 (95%CI: 0.17-0.36, I2 = 100%). In non-variceal bleeding, the proportion was 0.22 (95%CI: 0.14-0.31, I2 = 100%), whereas it was 0.25 (95%CI: 0.19-0.32, I2 = 100%) in variceal bleeding. The proportion of patients with colonic diverticular bleeding who developed shock or hemodynamic instability was 0.12 (95%CI: 0.06-0.22, I2 = 90%). The risk of bias was low, and heterogeneity was high in all analyses.

CONCLUSION

One in five, one in four, and one in eight patients develops shock or hemodynamic instability on admission or during hospitalization in the case of non-variceal, variceal, and colonic diverticular bleeding, respectively.

Child-Pugh Score, MELD Score and Glasgow Blatchford Score to Predict the In-Hospital Outcome of Portal Hypertensive Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: An Experience from Tertiary Healthcare System

The two most familiar scores used for prognostication of liver cirrhosis are the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), while the Glasgow-Blatchford (GB) score is used for sorting non-variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage into high- or low-risk categories. This study evaluates the validity of the CTP, MELD, and GB scoring systems in prognosticating the in-hospital outcome of bleeding portal hypertensive patients. In this study, the ROC curve and Younden index determine the efficacy of three scoring systems. The results indicate that CTP was the most efficient score as the predictor of outcome (AUC = 0.9, cut-off value > 7); followed by MELD (AUC = 0.8, cut-off value > 18) and then the GB score (AUC = 0.64, cut-off value > 14) (p < 0.05). In pair-wise comparison, the difference between CTP and MELD was insignificant (p > 0.05). Patients with a CTP score of >7 had notably higher in-hospital mortality (19.8% vs. 0.9%, p < 0.0001). Similarly, mortality with a MELD score > 18 was significant (14.8% vs. 5.9% (p < 0.0001). The GB score was not a good indicator of the outcome. Platelets, albumin, CTP, and MELD scores were the independent contributors to mortality. Thus, as liver cirrhosis prognosticators, CTP and MELD scores can also both be used as predictive scores of the in-hospital outcomes of bleeding patients due to portal hypertension. Compared to the GB score, CTP and MELD scores are fairly efficient predictors in these patients.

A Novel Prediction Tool for Endoscopic Intervention in Patients with Acute Upper Gastro-Intestinal Bleeding

(1) Background: Predicting which patients with upper gastro-intestinal bleeding (UGIB) will receive intervention during urgent endoscopy can allow for better triaging and resource utilization but remains sub-optimal. Using machine learning modelling we aimed to devise an improved endoscopic intervention predicting tool. (2) Methods: A retrospective cohort study of adult patients diagnosed with UGIB between 2012−2018 who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) during hospitalization. We assessed the correlation between various parameters with endoscopic intervention and examined the prediction performance of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and the pre-endoscopic Rockall score for endoscopic intervention. We also trained and tested a new machine learning-based model for the prediction of endoscopic intervention. (3) Results: A total of 883 patients were included. Risk factors for endoscopic intervention included cirrhosis (9.0% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.01), syncope at presentation (19.3% vs. 5.4%, p < 0.01), early EGD (6.8 h vs. 17.0 h, p < 0.01), pre-endoscopic administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) (43.4% vs. 31.0%, p < 0.01) and erythromycin (17.2% vs. 5.6%, p < 0.01). Higher GBS (11 vs. 9, p < 0.01) and pre-endoscopy Rockall score (4.7 vs. 4.1, p < 0.01) were significantly associated with endoscopic intervention; however, the predictive performance of the scores was low (AUC of 0.54, and 0.56, respectively). A combined machine learning-developed model demonstrated improved predictive ability (AUC 0.68) using parameters not included in standard GBS. (4) Conclusions: The GBS and pre-endoscopic Rockall score performed poorly in endoscopic intervention prediction. An improved predictive tool has been proposed here. Further studies are needed to examine if predicting this important triaging decision can be further optimized.

Gastrointestinal Emergencies in Neonates: A Review Article

Numerous emergencies that are life-threatening might present in the newborn period of life. Thus, physicians need an in-depth understanding of such circumstances in order to treat critically ill neonates. Identification of these illnesses and choosing the appropriate course of action, which includes patient stabilization, differential diagnosis based on laboratory and imaging results, and well-guided therapy, are the responsibility of the emergency department staff. The most typical diagnoses in this kind of situation are severe bacterial infections, congenital heart illness, gastrointestinal crises (including malrotation with midgut volvulus, necrotizing enterocolitis, etc.), respiratory problems, neurologic abnormalities, and child abuse. Reviewing the most prevalent ailments of a severely unwell newborn in the emergency room is the major goal of this review article. In developing countries, neonatal mortality rates are a crucial determinant of their development. Management of emergencies especially in neonates can be very difficult and fatal if misdiagnosed. In this article, we will be discussing neonatal gastrointestinal (GI) emergencies.

Predicting Outcomes for Interhospital Transferred Patients of Emergency General Surgery

Background. Interhospital transferred (IHT) emergency general surgery (EGS) patients are associated with high care intensity and mortality. However, prior studies do not focus on patient-level data. Our study, using each IHT patient’s data, aimed to understand the underlying cause for IHT EGS patients’ outcomes. We hypothesized that transfer origin of EGS patients impacts outcomes due to critical illness as indicated by higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and disease severity. Materials and Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all adult patients transferred to our quaternary academic center’s EGS service from 01/2014 to 12/2016. Only patients transferred to our hospital with EGS service as the primary service were eligible. We used multivariable logistic regression and probit analysis to measure the association of patients’ clinical factors and their outcomes (mortality and survivors’ hospital length of stay [HLOS]). Results. We analyzed 708 patients, 280 (39%) from an ICU, 175 (25%) from an ED, and 253 (36%) from a surgical ward. Compared to ED patients, patients transferred from the ICU had higher mean (SD) SOFA score (5.7 (4.5) vs. 2.39 (2), $P<0.001$ ), longer HLOS, and higher mortality. Transferring from ICU (OR 2.95, 95% CI 1.36–6.41, $P=0.006$ ), requiring laparotomy (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.04–3.70, $P=0.039$ ), and SOFA score (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13–1.32, $P<0.001$ ) were associated with higher mortality. Conclusions. At our academic center, patients transferred from an ICU were more critically ill and had longer HLOS and higher mortality. We identified SOFA score and a few conditions and diagnoses as associated with patients’ outcomes. Further studies are needed to confirm our observation.

Endoscopic Findings in Patients With Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Ogun State, Nigeria

Introduction

Although the global incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) appears to have reduced substantially in the past few decades, acute UGIB still carries significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. There are currently no published data on UGIB in Ogun State, Nigeria. This study examined the endoscopic findings in patients with UGIB in Ogun State. 

Methodology

The study was a retrospective cross-sectional survey of patients with UGIB who had upper gastrointestinal endoscopy at three endoscopy centers in Ogun State, Southwest Nigeria, from January 2015 to December 2021. Patients’ data, which included age, gender, and endoscopic findings, were extracted from the endoscopy registers into a spreadsheet and analyzed statistically. Summary statistics included means ± standard deviation for continuous variables and frequencies and percentages for categorical variables. Categorical variables were compared for differences by chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test as appropriate. The statistical significance cutoff was p-value <0.05.

Results

A total of 171 had endoscopy for UGIB during the period under review but 168 had complete data. Out of the 168, 113 (67.3%) were males, giving a male-to-female ratio of 2:1. The mean age of the patients was 52.4 ± 18.1 years, with an age range of 7-85 years. The modal age group was ≥60 years (75; 39.9%). The most common endoscopic finding was peptic ulcer disease (77; 45.8%), followed by esophagogastric varices (27; 16.1%), erosive mucosal disease (25; 14.9 %), portal hypertensive gastropathy (15; 8.9%), suspected malignancies (11; 6.6%), hemorrhagic gastritis (7; 4.2%), gastric antral vascular ectasia (2; 1.2%), and Mallory-Weiss tear (1; 0.6%), respectively. Forty-four patients (26.2%) had no lesion that could explain UGIB. 

Conclusion

Peptic ulcer disease was the most common cause of UGIB among our patient population, and the elderly male patients were the most affected.

The risk factors for the recurrent upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage among acute peptic ulcer disease patients in Syria: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a life-threatening medical emergency characterized by bleeding from the esophagus, stomach, or duodenum. This study aims to analyze the risk factors for upper gastrointestinal tract rebleeding among acute peptic ulcer patients.

METHODS

This is a cohort clinical study conducted between July 2018 and June 2020. Patients admitted or hospitalized because of UGIB or developed it during their hospital stay were included.s The patients were divided into two groups for the statistical analysis using Forrest's ulcer rebleeding risk classification. Group 1: Forrest 1a+1b+2a+2b, and group 2: Forrest 2c+3. The fasting time before the endoscopic procedure was from 12 to 24 hours. Follow-ups were conducted for 30 days after the treatment.

RESULTS

The total number of included subjects was 152, out of which 57.89% (n = 88) were male patients. The mean SD for patients' age was 52.63 16.89±; more than 40% (n = 62) of subjects were using antiplatelet medications, while only 13.15% (n = 20) used NSAIDs, and the mean SD for the transferred units was 2.32 ± 1.88, 7.24% (n = 11) of patients died. After 30 days of the treatment, 6.57% (n = 10) of patients suffered from recurrent bleeding. The most common presentation was melena 67.95% (n = 103), 53% (n = 81) of patients had hematemesis, 69.73% (n = 106) patients had gastric ulcer and 30.26% (n = 46) had duodenal ulcers.

CONCLUSION

Age, NSAIDs, altered mental capacity, Forrest classification (Ia,Ib, and IIa), and blood transfusion were associated with a higher risk of rebleeding. Furthermore, patients who needed 3.83 blood units were at higher risk of recurrent bleeding.

Features of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding and factors affecting the re-bleeding risk

BACKGROUND

The risk of re-bleeding in upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a major complication that can be mortal. In this study, we aimed to determine the factors that can predict the risk of re-bleeding in UGIB patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively screened UGIB patients admitted in adult intensive care. Along with age and gender, complaints of admission, vital signs, comorbidities, laboratory findings, medications, endoscopy status, and re-bleeding status were recorded. According to these findings, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores of the patients were calculated. All statistical tests were performed with the Predictive Analytics Software (PASW®, version 18, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL).

RESULTS

A total of 241 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 57.58±19.31, years and 176 (73.0%) of them were male. A total of 117 (48.5%) patients were Helicobacter pylori positive and re-bleeding occurred in 77 (32.0%) patients. Sclerotherapy was applied in 103 (42.7%) patients, while 5 (2.1%) underwent electrocoagulation, and 4 (1.7%) underwent hemoclips. There was a significant difference between patients with and without endoscopic intervention for re-bleeding (p<0.001). Hematocrit, urea values, Glasgow-Blatchford, and AIMS65 scores were statistically significant different between the groups with and without re-bleeding (p=<0.001, <0.001, <0.001, and 0.008, respectively). In the ROC analysis of Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scoring systems area, under the curve values were 0.700 (p=<0.001, 95% CI: 0.626-0.775), and 0.557 (p=0.194, CI 95%: 0.469-0.645), respectively. Mortality rate was 2.1% (n=5) among study population.

CONCLUSION

Hematocrit and urea values seem beneficial among studied laboratory values, however, Glasgow-Blatchford scoring system performed better than AIMS65 in the prediction of re-bleeding risk in UGIB. The authors concluded that more specific predictive markers may be useful for clinicians.

A Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Hospital Readmissions Following Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

This protocol outlines the planned methodology for a systematic review and meta-analysis. The primary objective of the review is to identify all-cause readmission rates for individuals hospitalized for an upper GI bleed (UGIB). Secondary objectives will include GI bleed-specific readmission rates, mortality (all-cause and GI bleed-specific), readmission diagnosis, and length of stay on readmission visit. High-risk subgroups will also be explored including age, sex, type of GI bleed (e.g., variceal or not), anti-coagulation status, and comorbidity status.

Through this review, the research team aims to describe an important quality indicator, which has implications for both patient safety post-discharge after an UGIB and healthcare resource utilization. 

The Impact of Continuous Infusion Compared to Intravenous Bolus Administration of Pantoprazole on Length of Intensive Care Unit Stay in Critically Ill Patients

Purpose: To determine if intravenous (IV) bolus pantoprazole increases intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay compared to IV infusion pantoprazole for treatment of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in critically ill patients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included adult patients admitted to the ICU with GI bleeds. Patients treated with IV pantoprazole from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017 were analyzed in the continuous infusion group, and patients treated from March 1, 2018 to February 28, 2019 were analyzed in the bolus only group. Patients with pregnancy, variceal bleeds, or lower GI bleeds were excluded. Intensive care unit length of stay was compared between the two cohorts using the Mann Whitney U test. Adjusted analysis was conducted using the generalized linear model with gamma log link to estimate the effect of type of infusion on ICU length of stay. Results: A total of 145 patients were included in the analysis, with 72 patients in the continuous infusion group and 73 patients in the bolus only group. The median ICU length of stay was 70.5 hours for continuous infusion and 64 hours for bolus only pantoprazole (P-value = .577). In the adjusted analysis, there was no difference in ICU length of stay between the continuous infusion and bolus only groups (RR, 1.06; 95% CI, .76-1.47). Conclusion: Intensive care unit length of stay was not prolonged with the use of IV bolus only compared to continuous infusion pantoprazole. Intravenous bolus only pantoprazole may be used in critically ill patients for treatment of upper GI bleeding.

Older age and diclofenac are associated with increased risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in gout patients

Background

Gouty arthritis is a disease of global burden in which defective metabolism of uric acid causes arthritis. Gouty arthritis or medications used for its treatment may lead to uric acid-associated complications such as upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and renal impairment.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study with retrospective record review, 403 established gouty arthritis patients were recruited to determine the incidence of UGIB and associated factors among gout patients who were on regular nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs).

Results

The mean age of the 403 gouty arthritis patients was 55.7 years old and the majority (n = 359/403; 89.1%) were male. The incidence of UGIB among gouty arthritis patients who were on NSAIDs was 7.2% (n = 29/403). Older age (p < 0.001), diclofenac medication (p = 0.003), pantoprazole medication (p = 0.003), end-stage renal failure (ESRF) (p = 0.007), smoking (p = 0.035), hypertension (p = 0.042) and creatinine (p = 0.045) were significant risk factors for UGIB among the gouty arthritis patients in univariable analysis. Older age (p = 0.001) and diclofenac medication (p < 0.001) remained significant risk factors for UGIB among the gouty arthritis patients in multivariable analysis.

Conclusions

Age and diclofenac were significantly associated with UGIB among patients with gouty arthritis on regular NSAIDs, indicating that these factors increased the risks of developing UGIB in gout patients. Hence, these high-risk groups of gouty arthritis patients should be routinely monitored to avoid the potential onset of UGIB. Our data also suggest that diclofenac should be prescribed for the shortest duration possible to minimize the risk of developing UGIB in gout patients.

Identifying a Clinical Risk Triage Score for Adult Emergency Department

Emergency triage is crucial for the treatment and prognosis of emergency patients, but its validity needs further improvement. The purpose of this study was to identify a risk score for adult triage. We conducted a regression analysis of physiological and biochemical data from 1,522 adult patients. A 60-point triage scoring model included temperature, pulse, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation, consciousness, dyspnea, admission mode, syncope history, chest pain or chest tightness, complexion, hematochezia or hematemesis, hemoptysis, white blood count, creatinine, bicarbonate, platelets, and creatine kinase. The area under curve in predicting ICU admission was 0.929 (95% CI [0.913-0.944]) for the derivation cohort and 0.911 (95% CI [0.884-0.938]) for the validation cohort. Four categories: critical level (≥13 points), severe level (6-12 points), urgency level (1-5 points), and sub-acute level (0 points) were divided, which significantly distinguished the severity of emergency patients.

Comparison of the quick SOFA score with Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall scores in predicting severity in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

INTRODUCTION

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is one of the common causes of mortality and morbidity. The Rockall score (RS) and Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) are frequently used in determining the prognosis and predicting in-hospital adverse events, such as mortality, re-bleeding, hospital stay, and blood transfusion requirements. The quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score is easy and swift to calculate. The commonly used scores and the qSOFA score were compared and why and when these scores are most useful was investigated.

METHOD

133 patients admitted to the emergency department with upper gastrointestinal bleeding over the period of a year, were evaluated in this retrospective study. The RS, GBS and qSOFA score were calculated for each patient, and their relationship with in-hospital adverse events, such as length of hospitalization, rebleeding, endoscopic treatment, blood transfusion requirements, and mortality, was investigated.

RESULTS

The mean overall GBS was 9.72 ± 3.72 (0-19), while that of patients who did not survive was 14.0 ± 1.1 (13-16), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.901, a cutoff value of 12.5, and specificity (Spe) and sensitivity (Sen) of 1 and 0.82, respectively. The median value of the GBS, in terms of transfusion need, was 7.12 ± 4.01 (0-15). (AUC = 0.752, cut-off = 9.5, Spe = 0.79, Sen = 0.69). The median value of the qSOFA score, in terms of intensive care need, was 1.73 ± 0.7 (0-3) (AUC = 0.921, cut-off = 0.5, Spe = 0.93, Sen = 0.79). The RS median, in terms of re-bleeding, was 8.22 ± 0.97 (6-9).

CONCLUSION

Early use of risk stratification scores in upper gastrointestinal bleeding is important due to the high risk of morbidity and mortality. All scoring systems were effective in predicting mortality, the need for intensive care, and re-bleeding. The GBS had a greater predictive power in terms of mortality and transfusion need, the qSOFA score for intensive care need, and the RS for re-bleeding. The simpler, more efficient, and more easily calculated qSOFA score can be used to estimate the severity of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Re-bleed and Mortality Amongst Patients Following Initial Endoscopy for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Single-Center Nigeria Study

Background and aim Clinical and endoscopic parameters are predictive of patient outcome following acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The study aimed to investigate factors related to re-bleed and mortality following initial endoscopy among Nigerian patients with recent upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Methods This is a cohort study of patients undergoing endoscopy for recent-onset UGIB at a referral endoscopy facility in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria, from April 2014 to November 2020. Patients' demographic and clinical data, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status, amount of blood transfusion, endoscopy results, and Rockall scores were retrieved from patients' charts. The re-bleed and mortality rates were noted on follow-up by telephone. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 20 (IMB Inc., Armonk, USA). Results A total of 560 patients had flexible video oesophagogastroduodenoscopy during the study period, and 46 (8.2%) of these were included in the study. Their age ranged from 28 years to 84 years (mean 58.6 ± 15.8 years) with 32 (69.6%) males and 14 (30.4%) females. Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) and gastritis/gastric erosions were the leading endoscopic diagnoses in 24 (52.2%) and 12 (26.1%) patients, respectively. Multiple comorbidities (p=0.021) and higher ASA score (mean 3.0; 95% confidence interval CI: 2.47-3.53; p=0.021) are associated with re-bleed, which was recorded in seven (15.2%) patients. Four (8.7%) cases of mortality were recorded in patients with a mean full Rockall score of 4.25 (95% CI: 1.52-6.97; p=0.021). Conclusion Re-bleed is more common in patients with multiple comorbidities, ASA score of three or more, and bleeding gastro-oesophageal varices at initial endoscopy. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with a full Rockall score of more than three.

Praziquantel and Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Hepatic Schistosomiasis: A Quasi-Experimental Study

Background

There is a general consensus that widespread use of praziquantel in populations where schistosomiasis is endemic prevents development of hepatic schistosomiasis and its complications. However, a few studies have reported discordant findings linking praziquantel to the occurrence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in some patients with hepatic schistosomiasis and varices.

Objective

We explored if there was any causal association between recent praziquantel use (rPZQ) and upper gastrointestinal bleeding in hepatic schistosomiasis in rural Africa.

Patients and Methods

A quasi-experimental, retrospective case-controlled study was performed. It involved adult patients with past or acute UGIB, varices, periportal fibrosis, and/or cirrhosis. Cases had acute variceal bleeding while controls did not. The outcome was the frequency of lifetime episodes of UGIB and exposure was rPZQ (received praziquantel in the last 11 months from the date of enrollment). The data analysis included 2 × 2 tables, logistic regression, and propensity-score matching. Odds ratios (ORs), average treatment effects (ATEs), and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used for inference.

Results

Over 6 weeks, we enrolled 19 cases with 92 lifetime episodes of UGIB, and 66 controls with 192 lifetime episodes of UGIB. Cases were more likely to experience UGIB than controls following rPZQ (92% vs. 62%; OR 7.6; 95% CI 3.4–17). Factors predictive of more lifetime episodes of UGIB at multivariable analysis included rPZQ (adjusted OR 13; 95% CI 2.9–53), relative leukocytosis (adjusted OR 26; 95% CI 7.6–89), large varices (adjusted OR 5.0; 95% CI 1.7–15), a family member with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis (adjusted OR 19; 95% CI 7.4–51), advanced periportal fibrosis (adjusted OR 8.0; 95% CI 2.6–22), ascites (adjusted OR 14; 95% CI 4.3–47), and jaundice (adjusted OR 32; 95% CI 7.8–128). While the ATE following rPZQ among the treated was 0.40 (95% CI 0.33–0.48).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest the presence of a plausible causal association between recent praziquantel use and increased frequency of UGIB in our study population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40801-020-00222-7.

Clinical mortality risk factors of variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a Malagasy surgical intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a dreadful complication of portal hypertension with a significant morbidity and mortality. Different prognostic scores can be used. However, in the local context of Madagascar, the completion of paraclinical investigations can be delayed by the limited financial means of patients. Hence, determining clinical mortality risk factors of variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding could be interesting. The aim of the study was to evaluate the clinical mortality risk factors of variceal gastrointestinal bleeding (VUGIB).

METHOD

An observational, cohort retrospective study was conducted over an 8-year period (2010-2017), at the surgical intensive care unit of the J.R. Andrianavalona University Hospital, Antananarivo, in patients admitted for VUGIB confirmed by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and whose clinical examination was performed at admission. The primary endpoint was intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify risk factors for ICU mortality, with OR defining odds ratio. A p value <0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

1920 patients were admitted for gastrointestinal bleeding of any digestive causes; the source of bleeding was variceal in 269 patients (14%). The predominantly male population (sex ratio = 2.5), aged 47.1 ± 13.7 years was mostly American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) 1 classification (58.4%). In 56.5% of patients, the gastrointestinal bleeding had not occurred before. The mortality rate was 16.0%. Three major clinical factors of mortality were identified: previous endoscopic band variceal ligation (OR = 12.57 [2.18-72.58], p = 0.005), tachycardia >120 bpm (OR = 2.91 [1.04-8.14], p = 0.041), and ascites (OR = 3.80 [1.85-7.81], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding may be life-threatening. The mortality scores are certainly useful; however, the identification of clinical factors is interesting in countries like Madagascar, pending the results of paraclinical investigations.

Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting GI Bleed Mortality in the Intensive Care Unit

INTRODUCTION

Acute gastrointestinal (GI) bleed is a common reason for hospitalization with 2%-10% risk of mortality. In this study, we developed a machine learning (ML) model to calculate the risk of mortality in intensive care unit patients admitted for GI bleed and compared it with APACHE IVa risk score. We used explainable ML methods to provide insight into the model's prediction and outcome.

METHODS

We analyzed the patient data in the Electronic Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database and extracted data for 5,691 patients (mean age = 67.4 years; 61% men) admitted with GI bleed. The data were used in training a ML model to identify patients who died in the intensive care unit. We compared the predictive performance of the ML model with the APACHE IVa risk score. Performance was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. This study also used explainable ML methods to provide insights into the model's outcome or prediction using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method.

RESULTS

The ML model performed better than the APACHE IVa risk score in correctly classifying the low-risk patients. The ML model had a specificity of 27% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 25-36) at a sensitivity of 100% compared with the APACHE IVa score, which had a specificity of 4% (95% CI: 3-31) at a sensitivity of 100%. The model identified patients who died with an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.80-0.90) in the internal validation set, whereas the APACHE IVa clinical scoring systems identified patients who died with AUC values of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73-0.86) with P value <0.001.

DISCUSSION

We developed a ML model that predicts the mortality in patients with GI bleed with a greater accuracy than the current scoring system. By making the ML model explainable, clinicians would be able to better understand the reasoning behind the outcome.

Risk Factors for Rebleeding after Emergency Endoscopic Treatment of Dieulafoy Lesion

Background and Objective: Dieulafoy lesion is a rare, but life-threatening, cause of gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and endoscopic therapy is the preferred first-line treatment. The present study aims to analyze the risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic hemostasis of gastroduodenal Dieulafoy lesion. Methods. A retrospective review of patients with Dieulafoy lesion who developed acute gastrointestinal bleeding and were treated primarily with endoscopic therapy from September 2014 to April 2019 was conducted. Results. A total of 133 patients with Dieulafoy lesion were included in the present study. The mean age of these patients was 56.05 ± 16.58 years, and 115 patients were male. Among these 133 patients, 26 patients developed rebleeding within 30 days of endoscopic therapy. The 30-day rebleeding rate for pure injection therapy (epinephrine, cyanoacrylate, or lauromacrogol injection alone), nonpure injection therapy (argon plasma coagulation, band ligation, and hemoclip application alone), and combination therapy (combination of any >2 methods) was 45.2%, 12.8%, and 11%, respectively. In the univariable analysis, endoscopic treatment, prothrombin time, gender, Rockall score, and leukocyte count were the risk factors for rebleeding. In the multivariable analysis, pure injection endoscopic treatment, white blood cells (>10 × 10⁹/L), and prothrombin time >12 seconds were the independent risk factors for rebleeding. Conclusion. Patients who undergo pure injection endoscopic treatment and have a high leukocyte count (>10 × 10⁹/L) or elevated prothrombin time (>12 seconds) have an increased risk of rebleeding within 30 days after endoscopic treatment for gastroduodenal Dieulafoy lesion. Combined endoscopic treatment is the most effective therapy to prevent rebleeding in gastroduodenal Dieulafoy lesion.

Gastrointestinal bleeding in patients admitted to cardiology: risk factors and a new risk score

OBJECTIVE

Although the early use of a risk stratification score in gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is recommended, so far there has been no risk score for GIB in patients admitted to the cardiology department. To describe the risk factors of GIB and develop a new risk score model in patients admitted to the cardiology department.

METHODS

A total of 633 inpatients with GIB from January 2014 to December 2018 were recruited, 4,231 inpatients with non-GIB were recruited as the control group. Multivariate logistic regression was used to describe the risk factors of GIB. A new risk score model was developed in the derivation cohort. Accuracy to predict GIB was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Male, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, systolic blood pressure, hematocrit, plasma albumin, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were associated with GIB. The model had a high predictive accuracy (AUROC 0.816 and 95% CI, 0.792-0.839), which was supported by the validation cohort (AUROC 0.841 and 95% CI, 0.807~0.874). Besides, the prediction of the model was better than HAS-BLED score (AUROC 0.557; 95% CI, 0.513~0.602) and CRUSADE score (AUROC 0.791; 95%CI, 0.757~0.825), respectively. Among the inpatients with a score of 0-3, 4-7, and ≥8 points, the incidence of GIB, the proportion of inpatients requiring suspended red blood cells transfusion, length of stay, and in-hospital mortality all increased gradually (P< 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Male, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, systolic blood pressure, hematocrit, plasma albumin, and ALT are associated with GIB. The new risk score model is an accurate risk score that predicts GIB in patients admitted to the cardiology department.

Interventional Algorithm in Gastrointestinal Bleeding-An Expert Consensus Multimodal Approach Based on a Multidisciplinary Team

The approach to the patient with gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) can be very complex. A multidisciplinary panel of physicians with expertise in Gastroenterology, Anesthesiology, and Transfusion Medicine worked together to provide the best knowledge and guide clinical practitioners in the real setting of health institutions, characterized by disparate availability of human and technical resources. The authors propose a global and personalized approach according to different clinical scenarios to improve the outcomes of patients with GIB, for whom the reduction of inappropriate transfusions is crucial. The goal of this document is to provide clear and objective guidance through interventional algorithms toward a goal-directed approach according to the clinical situation and supported by the latest available scientific data on GIB management in different settings.

Profile and outcome of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting to urban emergency departments of tertiary hospitals in Tanzania

Background

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common emergency department (ED) presentation with high morbidity and mortality. There is a paucity of data on the profile and outcome of patients who present with UGIB to EDs, especially within limited resource settings where emergency medicine is a new specialty. We aim to describe the patient profile, clinical severity and outcomes of the patients who present with UGIB to the ED of tertiary referral hospitals in Tanzania.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study of consecutive adult (≥18 years) patients presenting to the EDs of Muhimbili National Hospital (ED-MNH) and MUHAS Academic Medical Centre (ED-MAMC), in Tanzania with non-traumatic upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) from July 2018 to December 2018. Patient demographic data, clinical presentation, and ED and hospital management provided were recorded. We used the clinical Rockall score to assess disease severity. The primary outcome of 7- day mortality was summarized using descriptive statistics. Regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of mortality.

Results

During the study period, 123 patients presented to one of the two EDs with an UGIB. The median age was 42 years (Interquartile range (IQR) 32–64 years), and 87 (70.7%) were male. Hematemesis with melena was the most frequently encountered ED complaint 39 (31.7%). Within 7 days, 23 (18.7%) patients died and one-third 8 (34.8%) of these died within 24 h. There were no ED deaths. About 65.1% of the patients had severe anemia but only 60 (48.8%) received blood transfusion in the ED. Amongst those with history of (h/o) esophageal varices 7(41.2%) did not receive octreotide. Upper GI endoscopy, was performed on 46 (37.4%) patients, of whom only 8 (17.4%) received endoscopy within 24 h (early UGI endoscopy). All patients who received early UGI endoscopy had a low or moderate clinical Rockall score i.e. < 3 and 3–4. No patient with scores of > 4 received early UGI endoscopy. Age > 40 years was a significant independent predictor of mortality (OR = 7.00 (95% CI 1.7–29.2). Having a high clinical Rockall score of ≥ 4 was a significant independent predictor of mortality (OR = 6.4 (95% CI 1.8–22.8).

Conclusions

In this urban ED in Sub-Saharan Africa, UGIB carried a high mortality rate. Age > 40 years and clinical Rockall score ≥ 4 were independent predictors of higher mortality. Future studies should focus on evaluating how to improve access to UGI endoscopy so as to improve outcomes.

The diagnostic accuracy of routine clinical findings for detection of esophageal varices in rural sub-Saharan Africa where schistosomiasis is endemic

BACKGROUND

Variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is common in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, poor access to endoscopy services precludes the diagnosis of varices.

OBJECTIVES

We determined the diagnostic accuracy of routine clinical findings for detection of esophageal varices among patients with UGIB in rural SSA where schistosomiasis is endemic.

METHODS

We studied patients with a history of UGIB. The index tests included routine clinical findings and the reference test was diagnostic endoscopy. Multivariable regression with post-estimation provided measures of association and diagnostic accuracy.

RESULTS

We studied 107 participants with UGIB and 21% had active bleeding. One hundred and three (96%) had liver disease and 86(80%) varices. Factors associated with varices (p-value <0.05) were ≥ 4 lifetime episodes of UGIB, prior blood transfusion, splenomegaly, liver fibrosis, thrombocytopenia, platelet count spleen diameter ratio <909, and a dilated portal vein. Two models showed an overall diagnostic accuracy of > 90% in detection of varices with a number needed to misdiagnose of 13(number of patients who needed to be tested in order for one to be misdiagnosed by the test).

CONCLUSION

Where access to endoscopy is limited, routine clinical findings could improve the diagnosis of patients with UGIB in Africa.

The diagnostic accuracy of routine clinical findings for detection of esophageal varices in rural sub-Saharan Africa where schistosomiasis is endemic.

The magnitude and correlates of esophageal Varices among newly diagnosed cirrhotic patients undergoing screening fibre optic endoscope before incident bleeding in North-Western Tanzania; a cross-sectional study

Background

Bleeding esophageal varices is a deadly complication of liver cirrhosis. Guidelines recommend an early diagnosis of esophageal varices before incident bleeding by screening all patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis. Though it has been reported elsewhere that the presence of esophageal varices varies widely among cirrhotic patients this has not been assessed in Tanzania since endoscopy is not readily available for routine use in our setting. This study was designed to determine the prevalence of esophageal varices and assess the utility of clinical parameters in predicting the presence of varices among cirrhotic patients in northwestern Tanzania.

Methods

A cross-sectional analysis of adult patients with liver cirrhosis was done at Bugando Medical Centre. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and endoscopic data were collected and analyzed using STATA 13. The presence of esophageal varices was detected using endoscopic examination and associated factors were assessed by logistic regression. The predictive value of clinical predictors was also assessed by calculating sensitivity and specificity.

Results

A total of 223 patients were enrolled, where 88 (39.5%; 95%CI: 33.0–45.9) had esophageal varices. The varices were independently associated with increased age (OR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.0–1.04; p = 0.030); increased splenic diameter (OR:1.3; 95%CI:1.2–1.5; p <  0.001), increased portal vein diameter (OR:1.2; 95%CI: 1.07–1.4; p = 0.003), having ascites (OR: 3.0; 95%CI: 1.01–8.7; p = 0.046), and advanced liver disease (OR: 2.9; 95%CI: 1.3–6.7; p = 0.008). PSDR least performed in predicting varices, (AUC: 0.382; 95%CI: 0.304–0.459; cutoff: < 640; Sensitivity: 58.0%; 95%CI: 46.9–68.4; specificity: 57.0%; 95%CI: 48.2–65.5). SPD had better prediction; (AUC: 0.713; 95%CI: 0.646–0.781; cut off: > 15.2 cm; sensitivity: 65.9%; (95% CI: 55–75.7 and specificity:65.2%; 95%CI: 56.5–73.2), followed by PVD, (AUC: 0.6392; 95%CI: 0.566–0.712;cutoff: > 1.45 cm; sensitivity: 62.5%; 95CI: 51.5–72.6; specificity: 61.5%; 95%CI: 52.7–69.7).

Conclusion

Esophageal varices were prevalent among cirrhotic patients, most of which were at risk of bleeding. The non-invasive prediction of varices was not strong enough to replace endoscopic diagnosis. However, the predictors in this study can potentially assist in the selection of patients at high risk of having varices and prioritize them for endoscopic screening and appropriate management.

Deciphering the Mechanical Network of Chronic Atrophic Gastritis: A Urinary Time-Dependent Metabonomics-Based Network Pharmacology Study

Chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) is one of the most important pre-cancerous states with a high prevalence. Deciphering its mechanical network is of significant importance for its diagnosis and treatment. The time-series factor associated with CAG progression specially needs to be considered together with its biological condition. In the present work, ¹H NMR-based dynamic metabonomics was firstly performed to analyze the urinary metabolic features of CAG coupled with ANOVA-simultaneous component analysis (ASCA). As results, 4 (alanine, lipids, creatine, and dimethylglycine), 2 (α-ketoglutarate and alanine) and 5 (succinate, α-ketoglutarate, alanine, hippurate, and allantoin) urine metabolites were finally selected as the candidate biomarkers related to phenotype, time, and their interaction, respectively. Mechanistically, the network pharmacology analysis further revealed these metabolites were involved into mitochondrial function, oxidation reduction, cofactor binding, generation of precursor metabolites and energy, nucleotide binging, coenzyme metabolic process, cofactor metabolic process, cellular respiration, and tricarboxylic acid cycle. Especially, mitochondria were the most important targeted organelle referred 30 targeted proteins. The present work provided a novel network pharmacology approach for elucidating the mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of CAG based on urinary time dependent metabonomics.

Comparison of clinical outcomes between variceal and non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in cirrhosis is associated with significant morbidity and mortality and can be classified as acute variceal bleeding (AVB) or non-variceal bleeding (NVB). Differences in mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and 30-day readmission have yet to be determined. As such, the study aimed to evaluate differences in these clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients admitted with UGIB.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all cirrhotic patients hospitalized for UGIB who underwent upper endoscopy from July 2014 to July 2016. AVB was defined as the presence of varices on endoscopy with high-risk stigmata such as cherry-red spots. Mortality, intensive care unit admission, hospital LOS, and 30-day hospital readmission were recorded and compared among patients with AVB and NVB.

RESULTS

A total of 116 patients with cirrhosis were included, 73 with AVB and 43 with NVB. Patients with NVB were older than those with AVB (60.4 ± 11.1 vs 55.0 ± 9.5, P = 0.006) whereas patients with AVB were more likely to have known esophageal varices (64.4% vs 37.2%, P = 0.007). Patients with AVB and NVB had similar mortality (15.1% vs 9.3%, P = 0.57), hospital LOS (4.9, interquartile range: 3.6-6.9 days vs 5.0, interquartile range: 2.7-8.3 days), and 30-day readmission rates (19.2% vs 30.2%, P = 0.18). Severity of clinical presentation was associated with increased LOS and overall mortality, including the need for intensive care unit admission, but these were not associated with 30-day readmission rates.

CONCLUSION

There were no differences in clinical outcomes, including mortality, in cirrhotic patients admitted with AVB and NVB.