Evaluation of four scoring systems in prognostication of acute pancreatitis for elderly patients

Hyponatremia Is Associated with Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

BACKGROUND

Disorders of serum sodium are common among general patients and are associated with poor outcomes. The prognostic value of serum sodium disorders in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) has not been studied. We conducted this retrospective study to explore the association between serum sodium levels and the outcomes of patients with AP.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with AP from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) were screened for this study. The laboratory variables, including serum sodium levels, were obtained by analyzing the first blood sample on the first day after admission. Univariate logistic regression was performed to discover potential factors for mortality of AP. The unadjusted and adjusted association between serum sodium level and mortality of AP was shown by the restricted cubic spline (RCS). The categorical cutoff for the detrimental effect of serum sodium level on the prognosis of AP was also confirmed by stepwise logistic regression after adjusting for con-founding effects of significant factors in the univariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 869 patients with AP in the MIMIC-III were included with a mortality of 13.1%. Unadjusted logistic regression showed that age (p < 0.001), simplified acute physiological score (SAPS) (p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), hemoglobin (p = 0.040), serum creatinine (p = 0.046), and serum phosphorus (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the mortality of AP. The RCS showed that the serum sodium level was negatively and linearly associated with mortality of AP after adjusting for confounding effects of significant factors in the univariate logistic regression. Serum sodium < 133 mmol/L, which indicated hyponatremia, was significantly correlated with a higher mortality risk than serum sodium ≥ 133 mmol/L (p = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

Hyponatremia is widely developed among patients with AP and correlates with a higher mortality risk of AP. Physicians should pay more attention to managing patients with AP with hyponatremia.

Predictive value of the Ranson and BISAP scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To systematically assess and compare the predictive value of the Ranson and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched until February 15, 2023. Outcomes in this analysis included severity and prognosis [mortality, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. The revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used to evaluate the quality of diagnostic accuracy studies. The threshold effect was evaluated for each outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) as well as 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The DeLong test was used for AUC comparisons. For the outcome evaluated by over 9 studies, publication bias was assessed using the Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test.

RESULTS

Totally 17 studies of 5476 AP patients were included. For severity, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.92); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.74 (0.52, 0.88) and 0.95 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.98); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93, 0.97) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92, 0.96) (P = 0.480). For mortality, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.58, 0.89); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.87) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86, 0.93); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.93) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90, 0.94) (P = 0.480). For organ failure, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.60, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.94) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.97); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82, 0.88) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.93) (P = 0.110). For pancreatic necrosis, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.35, 0.84) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.89, 0.96); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.84, 0.90) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95) (P = 0.001). For ICU admission, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.92) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52, 0.73); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.55, 0.61) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.81, 0.86); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.00) (P = 0.592).

CONCLUSION

The Ranson score was an applicable tool for predicting severity and prognosis of AP patients with reliable diagnostic accuracy in resource and time-limited settings. Future large-scale studies are needed to verify the findings.

Predicting the risk of early intensive care unit admission for patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis using supervised machine learning

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a complex and life-threatening disease. Early recognition of factors predicting morbidity and mortality is crucial. We aimed to develop and validate a pragmatic model to predict the individualized risk of early intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with AP.

Methods

The 2019 Nationwide Readmission Database was used to identify patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AP without ICU admission. A matched comparison cohort of AP patients with ICU admission within 7 days of hospitalization was identified from the National Inpatient Sample after 1:N propensity score matching. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select predictors and develop an ICU acute pancreatitis risk (IAPR) score validated by 10-fold cross-validation.

Results

A total of 1513 patients hospitalized for AP were included. The median age was 50.0 years (interquartile range: 39.0-63.0). The three predictors that were selected included hypoxia (area under the curve [AUC] 0.78), acute kidney injury (AUC 0.72), and cardiac arrhythmia (AUC 0.61). These variables were used to develop a nomogram that displayed excellent discrimination (AUC 0.874) (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% confidence interval 0.824-0.876). There was no evidence of miscalibration (test statistic = 2.88; P = 0.09). For high-risk patients (total score >6 points), the sensitivity was 68.94% and the specificity was 92.66%.

Conclusions

This supervised machine learning-based model can help recognize high-risk AP hospitalizations. Clinicians may use the IAPR score to identify patients with AP at high risk of ICU admission within the first week of hospitalization.

Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas, with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease. Diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies, such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound, and scoring systems, including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores. Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity, while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications. Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild, moderate, or severe categories, guiding treatment decisions, such as intensive care unit admission, early enteral feeding, and antibiotic use. Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management, these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, practicality and economics. Recent advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data. AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data, identify scoring system patterns, and predict the clinical course of disease. AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP, but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application. In addition, understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately, sensitively, and specifically be used in the diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.

Prognostic value of C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disorder and although most of the cases are mild, the mortality risk is high when it comes to severe AP. It is therefore important to determine the severity of AP as early as possible. This review aimed to determine the prognostic value of C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CRP/alb ratio) in patients with AP. Methods: We performed a systematic search on the electronic databases PubMed, Science Direct, and Cochrane Library up to January 2023. Studies reporting CRP/alb ratio on admission and its association with severity or mortality in AP patients were included. We calculated pooled mean difference (MD) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. Quality assessment of the included studies was appraised using a Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Results: A total of six studies comprising 2244 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Severe AP had higher CRP/alb ratio on admission than mild-moderate AP (pooled MD: 3.59; 95% CI: 2.51-4.68; p<0.00001). CRP/alb ratio was also significantly higher on non-survivor AP patients compared to survivor AP patients (pooled MD: 2.12; 95% CI: 0.43-3.8; p < 0.01). Conclusion: High CRP/alb ratio can be used as an early predictor of poor prognosis in patients with AP.

A Clinic-Radiomics Model for Predicting the Incidence of Persistent Organ Failure in Patients with Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis

Background

Persistent organ failure (POF) is the leading cause of death in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP). Although several risk factors have been identified, there remains a lack of efficient instruments to accurately predict the incidence of POF in ANP.

Methods

Retrospectively, the clinical and imaging data of 178 patients with ANP were collected from our database, and the patients were divided into training (n = 125) and validation (n = 53) cohorts. Through computed tomography image acquisition, the volume of interest segmentation, and feature extraction and selection, a pure radiomics model in terms of POF prediction was established. Then, a clinic-radiomics model integrating the pure radiomics model and clinical risk factors was constructed. Both primary and secondary endpoints were compared between the high- and low-risk groups stratified by the clinic-radiomics model.

Results

According to the 547 selected radiomics features, four models were derived from features. A clinic-radiomics model in the training and validation sets showed better predictive performance than pure radiomics and clinical models. The clinic-radiomics model was evaluated by the ratios of intervention and mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) stays, and hospital stays. The results showed that the high-risk group had significantly higher intervention rates, ICU stays, and hospital stays than the low-risk group, with the confidence interval of 90% (p < 0.1 for all).

Conclusions

This clinic-radiomics model is a useful instrument for clinicians to evaluate the incidence of POF, facilitating patients' and their families' understanding of the ANP prognosis.

Clinical evaluation of the severity of acute pancreatitis in elderly patients

Background and study aims

Acute pancreatitis incidence in geriatric patients has increased in recent years. The aim of this study is to compare the clinical outcomes, laboratory findings of acute pancreatitis among patients aged 65-74 years, 75-84 years and ≥85 years.

Patients and methods

This retrospective study analyzed 500 patients aged 65 years and above, who were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis between 2012 and 2022. They were categorized into three groups based on their age: 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥85 years. The primary outcome of the study focused on comparing the hospital mortality rates among the three age groups. The secondary outcomes involved comparing the length of hospital stay, intensive care unit admission, rates of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), and cholecystectomy requirement among the three age groups.

Results

The study's primary outcome is the significantly higher mortality rate in the oldest age group (p=0.002). In addition, patients with a Bedside index score ≥3, severe pancreatitis according to the revised Atlanta criteria, necrotizing pancreatitis, and drug-induced pancreatitis had significantly higher mortality rates. Hospitalized patients in the intensive care unit also showed a statistically significant increase in mortality rates. Interestingly, the rate of cholecystectomy operations was significantly lower in the group with higher mortality (p=0.030). When evaluated in terms of secondary outcomes, no significant difference was found in all three age groups.

Conclusions

The findings of this study indicate that the oldest age group had a significantly higher mortality rate compared to the other age groups. As a result, early diagnosis and prompt treatment are of utmost importance to enhance outcomes in this vulnerable population.

Acute peripancreatic fluid collection in acute pancreatitis: Incidence, outcome, and association with inflammatory markers

Background

The hospital outcomes and predictors of acute peripancreatic fluid collection (APFC) have not been well-characterized. In this study, we aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of APFC in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and the role of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), and C-reactive protein (CRP) level in predicting the occurrence of APFC.

Methods

In this retrospective study, the complicated group (patients with APFC) and the uncomplicated group (patients without APFC) were compared for their clinical characteristics, hospital outcomes (mortality rate, intensive care unit admission rate, and length of hospital stay), pseudocyst formation, CRP levels, SII, and SIRI on admission and at 48 hours.

Results

Of 132 patients with AP, 51 (38.6%) had APFC and eight (6.1%) had pancreatic pseudocysts. Of 51 patients with APFC, 15.7% had pancreatic pseudocysts. Pseudocyst did not develop in the uncomplicated group. SII value at 48 h [median 859 (541-1740) x 109/L vs. 610 (343-1259) x 109/L, P = 0.01] and CRP level at 48 h [89 (40-237) mg/L vs. 38 (12-122) mg/L, P = 0.01] were higher in the complicated group than in the uncomplicated group. The length of hospital stay was longer in the complicated group, compared with the uncomplicated group [median 8 days (5-15), vs. 4 days (3-7), P < 0.001, respectively]. No significant difference was detected between the two study groups' mortality rates and intensive care unit admission rates.

Conclusions

While 38.6% of the AP patients had APFC, 6.1% of all patients and 15.7% of the patients with APFC had pancreatic pseudocysts. APFC was found to lengthen the hospital stay and to be associated with the SII value and CRP level measured at 48 h.

A modified Ranson score to predict disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and pancreatic infection in patients with acute pancreatitis

Background

Although there are several scoring systems currently used to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis, each of them has limitations. Determine the accuracy of a modified Ranson score in predicting disease severity and prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

AP patients admitted or transferred to our institution were allocated to a modeling group (n = 304) or a validation group (n = 192). A modified Ranson score was determined by excluding the fluid sequestration parameter and including the modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI). The diagnostic performance of the modified Ranson score was compared with the Ranson score, modified CTSI, and bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score in predicting disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection.

Results

The modified Ranson score had significantly better accuracy that the Ranson score in predicting all four outcome measures in the modeling group and in the validation group (all p < 0.05). For the modeling group the modified Ranson score had the best accuracy for predicting disease severity and organ failure, and second-best accuracy for predicting pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection. For the verification group, it had the best accuracy for predicting organ failure, second-best accuracy for predicting disease severity and pancreatic necrosis, and third-best accuracy for predicting pancreatic infection.

Conclusion

The modified Ranson score provided better accuracy than the Ranson score in predicting disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection. Relative to the other scoring systems, the modified Ranson system was superior in predicting organ failure.

Expression level of serum miR-347a-5p in patients with acute pancreatitis and its effect on viability, apoptosis, and inflammatory factors of pancreatic acinar cells induced by cerulein

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the life-threatening diseases of the digestive system. MicroRNA has been asserted to be a regulator of AP. This paper explored the miR-374a-5p expression in AP patients and investigated the efficacy of AR42J cells. In this study, 60 healthy people, 58 MAP patients and 58 SAP patients were included, and the serum miR-374a-5p levels of the subjects were detected by RT-qPCR technology. The pancreatitis cell model was structured by stimulating AR42J cells with cerulein. Next, cell viability and apoptosis were detected by CCK-8 assay and flow cytometry. ELISA was used to measure the concentration of cytokines, such as TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-1β. The data showed that miR-374a-5p was downregulated in samples from AP patients, while showing discriminative power for AP populations. Attenuated miR-374a-5p were negatively bound up with patients' Ranson score and APACHE II score. Besides, miR-374a-5p was declined in cerulein-treated AR42J cells and forced elevation of miR-374a-5p was beneficial to increase cell viability, and inhibit cell apoptosis and inflammation. The present study found that miR-374a-5p was reduced in AP serum samples, and up-regulated expression level of miR-374a-5p in cell models had a protective effect on cerulein-induced inhibition of cell function and inflammatory response.

Mechanism of Magnolia Volatile Oil in the Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis Based on GC-MS, Network Pharmacology, and Molecular Docking

Objective

Magnoliae officinalis cortex (MOC) is one of the most frequently used traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) for the treatment of acute pancreatitis (AP). Magnolia volatile oil (MVO) is considered to be one of the main active ingredients in MOC for AP treatment. However, the underlying mechanism of MVO in AP therapy is unknown.

Methods

An integrated strategy of gas chromatography-mass spectrum (GC-MS), network pharmacology, and molecular docking simulation was employed to predict underlying mechanism of MVO in AP treatment. First, the compounds of MVO were identified by GC-MS, and the targets of the identified characteristic compounds were collected from several databases, as well as AP-related targets. Next, Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis were carried out to obtain the mechanism. Moreover, the binding activity between core therapeutic targets and their corresponding compounds was evaluated by molecular docking simulation.

Results

GC-MS results showed a total of 35 compounds that appeared in at least 18 out of 20 chromatograms were considered as characteristic compounds of MVO, and 33 compounds of those were identified. Network analysis demonstrated that 33 compounds regulated 142 AP-related targets. Of those, 8 compounds (α-eudesmol, γ-eudesmol, (-)-terpinen-4-ol, terpineol, hinesol, linalool, borneol, and β-eudesmol) and 8 targets (TNF, IL-1β, PPARγ, PPARα, PTGS2, NCOA1, CNR1, and ESR1) have a close relationship with AP treatment and were recognized as the key active compounds and the core therapeutic targets, respectively. The 142 targets were involved in both inflammation and calcium overload-related biological pathways, such as neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, estrogen, MAPK, and calcium signaling pathway. Moreover, molecular docking simulation indicated that the 8 core therapeutic targets strongly interacted with their corresponding compounds.

Conclusions

In summary, the present study elucidated that the efficacy of MVO in AP treatment might be attributed to anti-inflammation and inhibition of calcium overload through multicomponents and multitargets.

Diagnosis, severity stratification and management of adult acute pancreatitis-current evidence and controversies

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a disease spectrum ranging from mild to severe with an unpredictable natural course. Majority of cases (80%) are mild and self-limiting. However, severe AP (SAP) has a mortality risk of up to 30%. Establishing aetiology and risk stratification are essential pillars of clinical care. Idiopathic AP is a diagnosis of exclusion which should only be used after extended investigations fail to identify a cause. Tenets of management of mild AP include pain control and management of aetiology to prevent recurrence. In SAP, patients should be resuscitated with goal-directed fluid therapy using crystalloids and admitted to critical care unit. Routine prophylactic antibiotics have limited clinical benefit and should not be given in SAP. Patients able to tolerate oral intake should be given early enteral nutrition rather than nil by mouth or parenteral nutrition. If unable to tolerate per-orally, nasogastric feeding may be attempted and routine post-pyloric feeding has limited evidence of clinical benefit. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatogram should be selectively performed in patients with biliary obstruction or suspicion of acute cholangitis. Delayed step-up strategy including percutaneous retroperitoneal drainage, endoscopic debridement, or minimal-access necrosectomy are sufficient in most SAP patients. Patients should be monitored for diabetes mellitus and pseudocyst.

Sequential organ failure assessment score is superior to other prognostic indices in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common surgical condition, with severe AP (SAP) potentially lethal. Many prognostic indices, including; acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (APACHE II), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Glasgow score, harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS), Ranson's score, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) evaluate AP severity and predict mortality.

AIM

To evaluate these indices' utility in predicting severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 653 patients with AP from July 2009 to September 2016 was performed. The demographic, clinical profile, and patient outcomes were collected. SAP was defined as per the revised Atlanta classification. Values for APACHE II score, BISAP, HAPS, and SOFA within 24 h of admission were retrospectively obtained based on laboratory results and patient evaluation recorded on a secure hospital-based online electronic platform. Data with < 10% missing data was imputed via mean substitution. Other patient information such as demographics, disease etiology, and patient outcomes were also derived from electronic medical records.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58.7 ± 17.5 years, with 58.7% males. Gallstones (n = 404, 61.9%), alcohol (n = 38, 5.8%), and hypertriglyceridemia (n = 19, 2.9%) were more common aetiologies. 81 (12.4%) patients developed SAP, 20 (3.1%) required ICU admission, and 12 (1.8%) deaths were attributed to SAP. Ranson's score and APACHE-II demonstrated the highest sensitivity in predicting SAP (92.6%, 80.2% respectively), ICU admission (100%), and mortality (100%). While SOFA and BISAP demonstrated lowest sensitivity in predicting SAP (13.6%, 24.7% respectively), ICU admission (40.0%, 25.0% respectively) and mortality (50.0%, 25.5% respectively). However, SOFA demonstrated the highest specificity in predicting SAP (99.7%), ICU admission (99.2%), and mortality (98.9%). SOFA demonstrated the highest positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, and overall accuracy in predicting SAP, ICU admission, and mortality. SOFA and Ranson's score demonstrated the highest area under receiver-operator curves at 48 h in predicting SAP (0.966, 0.857 respectively), ICU admission (0.943, 0.946 respectively), and mortality (0.968, 0.917 respectively).

CONCLUSION

The SOFA and 48-h Ranson's scores accurately predict severity, ICU admission, and mortality in AP, with more favorable statistics for the SOFA score.

Percutaneous catheter drainage of pancreatic associated pathologies: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

The main goal of this systematic review was to assess the technical and clinical success, adverse events (AEs), surgery, and overall mortality proportion after percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) of two pancreatic lesions.

METHODS

An extant search in online databases including Scopus, PubMed (Medline), Embase (Elsevier), Web of Science, Cochrane library, and Google Scholar, was conducted to recognize all studies that used PCD intervention in the management of pancreatic necrosis (PN) and pancreatic pseudocysts (PP). Random effects meta-analysis was performed, and Cochrane's Q test and I²statistic were utilized to determine heterogeneity. In addition, meta-regression was used to explore the influence of categorical variables on heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies (1398 patients) including PN in 26 (1256 cases, 89.8%) studies and PP in 6 (142 cases, 10.2%) studies were identified. Technical success proportion was 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 100%-100%, I²: 0.0%), clinical success 63% (95% CI 55%-71%, I²: 92.9%), AEs 26% (95% CI 21%-31%, I²: 78%), surgery after PCD intervention 33% (95% CI 25%-40%, I²: 92.4%), and overall mortality was 13% (95% CI 9%-17%, I²: 82.8%). The most common ADs after PCD intervention were development of fistula (106, 42.6%), hemorrhage (44, 17.7%), sepsis (40, 16.1%).

CONCLUSION

A significant clinical success proportion with low AEs, surgery, and overall mortality proportion after PCD intervention was found, although the results should be interpreted with caution due to the high heterogeneity.

Can we use endocan level to determine severity of pancreatitis?

Background and study aims

Endothelial cell specific molecule-1 (ESM-1), also known as endocan, is a soluble proteoglycan secreted by human vascular endothelial cells. In some studies, it has been found that endocan have important effects on cell adhesion, inflammation and angiogenesis. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the endocan level in patients with pancreatitis and the availability of endocan level in determining the severity of the disease.

Patients and methods

A total of 42 patients with pancreatitis and 33 healthy individuals were included in the study. The serum endocan levels in patients were evaluated 1st and 3 th days after the symptom's onset. Current scoring systems and the relationship between the severity of the disease and endocan levels were evaluated.

Results

The endocan levels of the patients on day 1 are significantly correlated only with the APACHE II score (p=0.039 r=0.319), while the endocan values on day 3 are significantly correlated with the BISAP (bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis) (p=0.013 r=0.380), APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation)(p<0.001; r=0.53) and Ranson (p=0.037 r=0.32) scores. The cutoff level of endocan (day 3) was calculated 92.2 pg/ml (83% sensitivity and 50% specificity; p=0.039 area under the curve 0.706) for severe pancreatitis when considering the patients with a score of 8 or higher in the APACHE II scoring system.

Conclusion

Serum endocan level can be used as a marker of prognosis in patients with pancreatitis. However, studies involving large populations are needed on this matter.