Nomogram for predicting overall survival in colorectal cancer with distant metastasis

Survival Benefits of Postoperative Chemotherapy in Patients With Colorectal Mucinous Adenocarcinoma: An Analysis Utilizing Propensity Score Matching From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of patients with colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) who benefit from postoperative chemotherapy (POCT) and to develop effective postoperative survival nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) in colorectal MAC patients.

METHODS

Data of colorectal MAC patients who underwent surgery from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2020 were collected. Patients were grouped based on POCT, and intergroup analysis was performed using 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM). Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves were used to compare the prognosis between the 2 groups. Cox analysis was employed to identify factors associated with OS in patients with colorectal MAC who underwent POCT. The variance inflation factor (VIF) and bilateral stepwise regression were used to determine factors included in the model. Additionally, a nomogram was constructed to predict postoperative survival outcomes for patients. The discriminative ability of the nomograms was evaluated using the C-index and calibration curve analysis, the decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed the clinical utility of the nomogram, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve evaluated the nomograms' performance.

RESULTS

This study encompassed 6829 patients with colorectal MAC, among whom 2258 received POCT, and 4571 did not. Whether pre or post PSM, patients in the POCT group consistently exhibited a superior median OS compared to those in the postoperative non-chemotherapy group (P < .0001). For colorectal MAC patients undergoing POCT, OS was correlated with factors such as patient age, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, tumor deposits, perineural invasion (PNI), lymph node examination count, T staging, and Grade staging. Notably, a significant chemotherapy advantage was observed in patients without perineural invasion, those with lymph node examination counts exceeding 12, and patients with moderately differentiated tumors. The overall colorectal MAC patient postoperative OS predictive nomogram demonstrated a C-index of .74, with a calibration curve near the diagonal and a DCA curve indicating positive net benefits. In comparison to TNM staging, the ROC curves of the nomogram at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years demonstrated superior predictive capabilities (AUC: .80 vs .71, .78 vs .71, .77 vs .70).

CONCLUSION

This study revealed the characteristics of colorectal MAC patients who benefit from POCT and established effective prognostic nomograms, which can aid clinicians in designing personalized treatment plans for individual patients and promote precision medicine.

Development of a prognostic nomogram for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients received radiotherapy based on clinical risk factors

Purpose

The goal of the study was to create a nomogram based on clinical risk factors to forecast the rate of locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent radiotherapy (RT).

Methods

In this study, 574 ESCC patients were selected as participants. Following radiotherapy, subjects were divided into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. The nomogram was established in the training group using Cox regression. Performance validation was conducted in the validation group, assessing predictability through the C-index and AUC curve, calibration via the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, and evaluating clinical applicability using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

T stage, N stage, gross tumor volume (GTV) dose, location, maximal wall thickness (MWT) after RT, node size (NS) after RT, Δ computer tomography (CT) value, and chemotherapy were found to be independent risk factors that impacted LRFS by multivariate cox analysis, and the findings could be utilized to create a nomogram and forecast LRFS. the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve and C-index show that for training and validation groups, the prediction result of LRFS using nomogram was more accurate than that of TNM. The LRFS in both groups was consistent with the nomogram according to the H-L test. The DCA curve demonstrated that the nomogram had a good prediction effect both in the groups for training and validation. The nomogram was used to assign ESCC patients to three risk levels: low, medium, or high. There were substantial variations in LRFS between risk categories in both the training and validation groups (p<0.001, p=0.003).

Conclusions

For ESCC patients who received radiotherapy, the nomogram based on clinical risk factors could reliably predict the LRFS.

Establishment of nomogram to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival of local tumor resection in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis with unresectable metastases: a large population-based analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The tumour-node metastasis (TNM) classification is a common model for evaluating the prognostic value of tumour patients. However, few models have been used to predict the survival outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) with unresectable metastases who received the primary local surgery. Thus, we utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to establish novel nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of these patients.

METHODS

Extracted primary data on CRLM patients by local surgery from SEER database. All prognostic factors of OS and CSS were determined by Cox regression analysis. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to further evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of these nomograms. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was executed to evaluate the nomograms for the clinical net benefit. Risk stratification analysis (RSA) was used to evaluate the reliability of them in clinical.

RESULTS

3622 eligible patients were screened and assigned to training cohort (1812) or validation cohort (1810). The age, chemotherapy, tumour grade, primary tumour site, tumour size, lymph node positive rate (LNR), marital status, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were independent prognostic factors of OS. Additionally, the age, chemotherapy, tumour grade, primary tumour site, tumour size, LNR, and CEA were independent prognostic factors of CSS. The results of C-indexes and ROC curves indicated that the established nomograms exhibited better discrimination power than TNM classification. The calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between the predicted and actual survival rates for 1-, 3-, and 5 year OS and CSS. Meanwhile, the validation cohort demonstrated similar results. Background the clinic context, the DCA showed that these nomograms have higher net benefits, and the RSA showed that patients were further divided into low risk, medium risk, and high risk groups according to the predicted scores from nomograms. And, the Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test showed that the survival differences among the three groups are statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomograms showed very high accuracy, identifiability, and clinical practicality in predicting the OS and CSS of CRLM patients with unresectable metastases treated by local surgery at 1-, 3-, and 5 years, which might improve individualized predictions of survival risks and help clinicians formulate treatment plans.

Value analysis of ITLN1 in the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of colorectal cancer

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Less than half of the patients are diagnosed when the cancer is locally advanced. Several studies have shown that intelectin-1 (ITLN1) can serve as a key prognostic and therapeutic target for CRC. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical value of ITLN1 in CRC and to analyse its potential as a predictive biomarker for CRC.

Methods

Colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) is the main type of CRC. COAD project in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database served as the training cohort, and GSE39582 series in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database served as the external independent validation cohort. First, the difference in the expression level of ITLN1 between COAD tissue and normal tissue was analysed, and the results were verified via immunohistochemistry. The relationship between ITLN1 expression and the prognosis of COAD patients was evaluated via the heatmap and the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve. The ITLN1 coexpressed gene set obtained by Pearson correlation analysis was used. The prognostic signatures that were significantly correlated with survival status were screened by Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses. Finally, a nomogram related to ITLN1 was constructed based on the risk score of the prognostic signature and routine clinicopathological variables.

Results

ITLN1 is significantly underexpressed in tumour tissues and can be used as a valuable tool to distinguish COAD. The high-expression group of ITLN1 was verified to have a greater survival rate. ITLN1 is significantly associated with a good prognosis in COAD patients. Six candidate genes (ITLN1 and MORC2, SH2D7, LGALS4, ATOH1, and NAT2) were selected for use in the Cox-LASSO regression analysis to calculate the risk score. Finally, a nomogram was constructed with a comprehensive risk score and clinicopathologic factors to successfully predict and verify the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probability.

Conclusions

Our study established ITLN1 as an effective tool for CRC screening, diagnosis, and prognostic assessment, provided a basis for further study of the molecular function of ITLN1, and provided new insights for the mechanistic exploration and treatment of CRC.

[Retroperitoneal schwannoma mimicking colorectal cancer metastases: a false positive result report.]

Introduction

schwannomas are benign and common soft tissue tumors. They are usually asymptomatic and are discovered for other reasons.

Materials

we present the case of an 82-year-old male patient with a recent diagnosis of moderately differentiated adenocarcinoma of the colon and a hypermetabolic periaortic nodule as an incidental finding.

Results

percutaneous biopsy of the periaortic nodule confirmed the diagnosis of schwannoma. At one year of follow-up, growth of the schwannoma has been demonstrated. There are no signs of progression of his oncological disease.

Conclusions

schwannomas are benign tumors, rarely found in the retroperitoneum and can be sources of false-positive positron emission tomography results.

Establishment of a neutrophil extracellular trap-related prognostic signature for colorectal cancer liver metastasis and expression validation of CYP4F3

Liver metastasis stands as the primary contributor to mortality among patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC). Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) emerge as pivotal players in the progression and metastasis of cancer, showcasing promise as prognostic biomarkers. Our objective is to formulate a predictive model grounded in genes associated with neutrophil extracellular traps and identify novel therapeutic targets for combating CRLM. We sourced gene expression profiles from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Neutrophil extracellular trap-related gene set was obtained from relevant literature and cross-referenced with the GEO datasets. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified through screening via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and random forest modeling, leading to the establishment of a nomogram and subtype analysis. Subsequently, a thorough analysis of the characteristic gene CYP4F3 was undertaken, and our findings were corroborated through immunohistochemical staining. We identified seven DEGs (ATG7, CTSG, CYP4F3, F3, IL1B, PDE4B, and TNF) and established nomograms for the occurrence and prognosis of CRLM. CYP4F3 is highly expressed in CRC and colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM), exhibiting a negative correlation with CRLM prognosis. It may serve as a potential therapeutic target for CRLM. A novel prognostic signature related to NETs has been developed, with CYP4F3 identified as a risk factor and potential target for CRLM.

Preoperative blood markers and intra-abdominal infection after colorectal cancer resection

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) has one of the highest morbidity and mortality rates among digestive tract tumors. Intra-abdominal infection (IAI) is a common postoperative complication that affects the clinical outcomes of patients with CRC and hinders their rehabilitation process. However, the factors influencing abdominal infection after CRC surgery remain unclear; further, prediction models are rarely used to analyze preoperative laboratory indicators and postoperative complications.

AIM

To explore the predictive value of preoperative blood markers for IAI after radical resection of CRC.

METHODS

The data of 80 patients who underwent radical resection of CRC in the Anorectal Surgery Department of Suzhou Hospital affiliated with Anhui Medical University were analyzed. These patients were categorized into IAI (n = 15) and non-IAI groups (n = 65) based on whether IAI occurred. Influencing factors were compared; general data and laboratory indices of both groups were identified. The relationship between the indicators was assessed. Further, a nomogram prediction model was developed and evaluated; its utility and clinical applicability were assessed.

RESULTS

The risk factors for IAI after radical resection of CRC were neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels. NLR was correlated with PLR and SII (r = 0.604, 0.925, and 0.305, respectively), while PLR was correlated with SII (r = 0.787). The nomogram prediction model demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.968 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.948-0.988] in the training set (n = 60) and 0.926 (95%CI: 0.906-0.980) in the validation set (n = 20). The average absolute errors of the calibration curves for the training and validation sets were 0.032 and 0.048, respectively, indicating a good model fit. The decision curve analysis curves demonstrated high net income above the 5% threshold, indicating the clinical practicality of the model.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model constructed using NLR, PLR, SII, and CEA levels had good accuracy and reliability in predicting IAI after radical resection of CRC, potentially aiding clinical treatment decision-making.

Survival outcome and prognostic factors for early-onset and late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer: a population based study from SEER database

Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide and there has been a concerning increase in the incidence rate of colorectal cancer among individuals under the age of 50. This study compared the survival outcome between early-onset and late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer to find the differences and identify their prognostic factors. We obtained patient data from SEER database. Survival outcome was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted utilizing COX models to identify their independent prognostic factors. A total of 10,036 early-onset metastatic colorectal (EOCRC) cancer patients and 56,225 late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer (LOCRC) patients between 2010 and 2019 were included in this study. EOCRC has more survival benefits than LOCRC. Tumor primary location (p < 0.001), the location of metastasis (p < 0.001) and treatment modalities (p < 0.001) affect the survival outcomes between these two groups of patients. Female patients had better survival outcomes in EOCRC group (p < 0.001), but no difference was found in LOCRC group (p = 0.57). In conclusion, our study demonstrated that EOCRC patients have longer survival time than LOCRC patients. The sex differences in survival of metastatic colorectal cancer patients are associated with patients' age. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the differences between metastatic EOCRC and LOCRC, and can help inform the development of more precise treatment guidelines to improve prognosis.

Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram Model for Early Diagnosis of Anastomotic Leakage After Laparoscopic Colorectal Cancer Surgery

Background: This study aimed to investigate the clinical value of inflammatory factors for predicting anastomotic leakage (AL) after laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery and establish a nomogram model to assess the probability of its occurrence. Patients and Methods: Data of 637 patients who underwent laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery between June 2019 and June 2022 were collected. Differences in procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and white blood cell (WBC) levels before surgery and on postoperative day (POD) 3 and 5 were compared between patients with and without AL (AL and non-AL groups, respectively). The diagnostic accuracy was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and a nomogram model was developed. Results: Post-operative AL occurred in 46 (7.2%) patients. Procalcitonin, CRP, and WBC levels on POD 3 and 5 were higher in the AL group than in the non-AL group. The AUCs of PCT, CRP, and WBC levels for predicting AL on POD 3 were 0.833, 0.757, and 0.756, respectively, which were better than those on POD 5 (AUC = 0.669, 0.581, and 0.588, respectively). The nomogram model for AL was developed based on five variables (PCT, CRP, WBC, American Society of Anesthesiologists [ASA] grade and comorbidities), and it had an AUC of 0.922. Calibration curves demonstrated that the nomogram had good fit. The Delong test showed that the AUC of the nomogram for predicting the probability of AL was higher than that of PCT alone (z = 2.311, p = 0.02). Conclusions: Procalcitonin measured on POD 3 seems to be a promising negative predictor of AL after laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery. Furthermore, the nomogram model developed in our study, which utilizes a series of predictors that can be easily accessed, has demonstrated potential to further improve the prediction accuracy.

Is Older Age an Independent Prognostic Factor of Survival in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer?

INTRODUCTION

Older patients (≤75 years) with advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) may have worse survival than non-older patients. We hypothesized that, rather than age alone, concurrent factors may be more relevant for real-world survival.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with CRC in a 5-year period (2014-2018) were analyzed to determine which factors influenced in overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate OS. Univariate and multivariate analysis was conducted by Cox regression analysis. The study was approved by Ethics Committee.

RESULTS

Out of 477 patients diagnosed with CRC, 231 had advanced disease. Ninety-two patients (40%) were older than 75 years; median OS (mOS) was 17.1 m (95% CI: 14.3-23.3), p < 0.001. In non-older patients, mOS was 26.7 m (95% CI: 21.9-32.6), p < 0.001. We evaluated eighteen concurrent factors that included characteristics related to the patient (age, sex, comorbidities, polypharmacy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG), and nutritional status), to the tumor (stage at diagnosis, tumor side, molecular profile, tumor burden, location, and number of metastasis), and to the treatment administered (systemic treatment for advanced disease, chemotherapy schedule and number of lines, severe adverse events and dose reductions, and surgery of liver metastasis). In the univariate analysis, age at diagnosis, ECOG, nutritional status, tumor side, molecular profile, tumor burden, systemic treatment for advanced disease, and surgery of liver metastases had significant impact on survival. However, multivariate analysis revealed that only four factors (tumor burden, nutritional status, systemic treatment for advanced disease, and surgery of liver metastases) were independently associated with OS but not older age at diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Older age is not an independent survival prognostic factor for advanced CRC. Tumor burden, nutritional status, systemic treatment for advanced disease, and surgery of liver metastasis were significant factors associated with OS. These findings suggest that older patients should not be excluded from cancer treatment based on age alone.

Exploring Potential Epigenetic Biomarkers for Colorectal Cancer Metastasis

Metastatic progression is a complex, multistep process and the leading cause of cancer mortality. There is growing evidence that emphasises the significance of epigenetic modification, specifically DNA methylation and histone modifications, in influencing colorectal (CRC) metastasis. Epigenetic modifications influence the expression of genes involved in various cellular processes, including the pathways associated with metastasis. These modifications could contribute to metastatic progression by enhancing oncogenes and silencing tumour suppressor genes. Moreover, specific epigenetic alterations enable cancer cells to acquire invasive and metastatic characteristics by altering cell adhesion, migration, and invasion-related pathways. Exploring the involvement of DNA methylation and histone modification is crucial for identifying biomarkers that impact cancer prediction for metastasis in CRC. This review provides a summary of the potential epigenetic biomarkers associated with metastasis in CRC, particularly DNA methylation and histone modifications, and examines the pathways associated with these biomarkers.

Single metachronous bone metastasis following rectal adenocarcinoma: A case report

Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks as the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality in developed countries. While its incidence in early stages has increased due to screening programs, a significant number of patients experience the development of metastases either at the time of diagnosis or during follow-ups. Unlike certain other types of cancer, such as breast, prostate, or lung cancer, where bone tissue is a common site for secondary dissemination, CRC primarily spreads to the lymph nodes, liver and lungs. The occurrence of bone metastases from CRC is rare and usually coincides with tumor involvement in other locations. Risk factors for bone metastases include the location of the primary tumor, the age of the patients, KRAS mutations and the degree of tumor differentiation. Unlike metastases to the liver and lungs, bone metastases tend to be symptomatic, affecting the patient's quality of life and resulting in a poorer prognosis with shorter survival rates. The approach to patient management needs to be personalized. The present study describes the of a patient who underwent surgery for stage IV rectal adenocarcinoma and later developed a metastasis in the costal wall 79 months post-intervention, with no evidence of recurrence at other sites.

Classification and Diagnostic Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Mortality Based on Machine Learning Algorithms: A Multicenter National Study

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks as the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. This study aimed to predict survival outcomes of CRC patients using machine learning (ML) methods.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis included 1853 CRC patients admitted to three prominent tertiary hospitals in Iran from October 2006 to July 2019. Six ML methods, namely logistic regression (LR), Naïve Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Neural Network (NN), Decision Tree (DT), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), were developed with 10-fold cross-validation. Feature selection employed the Random Forest method based on mean decrease GINI criteria. Model performance was assessed using Area Under the Curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Time from diagnosis, age, tumor size, metastatic status, lymph node involvement, and treatment type emerged as crucial predictors of survival based on mean decrease GINI. The NB (AUC = 0.70, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.65-0.75) and LGBM (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.65-0.75) models achieved the highest predictive AUC values for CRC patient survival.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the significance of variables including time from diagnosis, age, tumor size, metastatic status, lymph node involvement, and treatment type in predicting CRC survival. The NB model exhibited optimal efficacy in mortality prediction, maintaining a balanced sensitivity and specificity. Policy recommendations encompass early diagnosis and treatment initiation for CRC patients, improved data collection through digital health records and standardized protocols, support for predictive analytics integration in clinical decisions, and the inclusion of identified prognostic variables in treatment guidelines to enhance patient outcomes.

Role of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms in Genes Implicated in Capecitabine Pharmacodynamics on the Effectiveness of Adjuvant Therapy in Colorectal Cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a highly prevalent form of neoplasm worldwide. Capecitabine, an oral antimetabolite, is widely used for CRC treatment; however, there exists substantial variation in individual therapy response. This may be due to genetic variations in genes involved in capecitabine pharmacodynamics (PD). In this study, we investigated the role of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to capecitabine's PD on disease-free survival (DFS) in CRC patients under adjuvant treatment. Thirteen SNPs in the TYMS, ENOSF1, MTHFR, ERCC1/2, and XRCC1/3 genes were genotyped in 142 CRC patients using real-time PCR with predesigned TaqMan® probes. A significant association was found between favorable DFS and the ENOSF1 rs2612091-T allele (p = 0.010; HR = 0.34; 95% CI = 0.14-0.83), as well as with the TYMS/ENOSF1 region ACT haplotype (p = 0.012; HR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.17-0.80). Other factors such as low histological grade (p = 0.009; HR = 0.34; 95% CI = 0.14-0.79) and a family history of cancer (p = 0.040; HR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.23-0.99) were also linked to improved DFS. Therefore, the SNP ENOSF1 rs2612091 could be considered as a predictive genetic biomarker for survival in CRC patients receiving capecitabine-based adjuvant regimens.

A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to determine what variables contribute to the early death of elderly colorectal cancer patients (ECRC) and to generate predictive nomograms for this population.

Methods

This retrospective cohort analysis included elderly individuals (≥75 years old) diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) from 2010-2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result databases (SEER) databases. The external validation was conducted using a sample of the Chinese population obtained from the China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University. Logistic regression analyses were used to ascertain variables associated with early death and to develop nomograms. The nomograms were internally and externally validated with the help of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The SEER cohort consisted of 28,111 individuals, while the Chinese cohort contained 315 cases. Logistic regression analyses shown that race, marital status, tumor size, Grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, bone metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were independent prognostic factors for all-cause and cancer-specific early death in ECRC patients; The variable of sex was only related to an increased risk of all-cause early death, whereas the factor of insurance status was solely associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific early death. Subsequently, two nomograms were devised to estimate the likelihood of all-cause and cancer-specific early death among individuals with ECRC. The nomograms exhibited robust predictive accuracy for predicting early death of ECRC patients, as evidenced by both internal and external validation.

Conclusion

We developed two easy-to-use nomograms to predicting the likelihood of early death in ECRC patients, which would contribute significantly to the improvement of clinical decision-making and the formulation of personalized treatment approaches for this particular population.

External validation of a nomogram predicting conditional survival after tri-modality treatment of esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

A conditional survival nomogram was developed at a single high-volume center to predict 5-year overall survival for esophageal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophagectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate the nomogram in a cohort of patients with esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma from another high-volume center.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with an esophageal adeno- or squamous cell carcinoma who had undergone esophagectomy after being treated with preoperative chemoradiation between 2004 and 2016 were selected from a prospectively maintained institutional database. The level of discrimination for prediction of 5-year overall survival was quantified by Harrell's C statistic. Calibration of the conditional survival nomogram was visualized by plotting predicted 5-year survival and observed 5-year survival for comparison.

RESULTS

Of the 296 patients examined, the probability of 5-year overall survival directly after surgery was 45% and increased to 51%, 68%, 78%, and 89% for each additional year survived. The predicted 5-year overall survival differed from the observed survival, with a calibration slope of 0.54, 0.55, 0.59, 0.73, and 1.09 directly after surgery and 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of survival after surgery, respectively. The nomogram's discrimination level for 5-year survival was moderate, with a C statistic of 0.65 compared to the 0.70 reported in the original study.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model has moderate predictive discrimination and accuracy, supporting its applicability to external cohorts to predict conditional survival. Further validation studies should empirically assess the model for predictive performance.

Nomograms for predicting overall survival in colorectal cancer patients with metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to identify the heterogeneous and homogeneous prognostic factors associated with distant metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and then construct nomograms to predict the prognosis.

METHODS

CRC patients registered in the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database between 2010 and 2017 were included. A Cox regression model was used to analyse homogeneous and heterogeneous prognostic factors, and Kaplan‒Meier analysis was performed to estimate overall survival (OS). Predictive nomograms were constructed, and their performance was evaluated with C-indexes, calibration curves and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 37,641 patients with distant metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain were included. The median survival times of patients with liver metastasis, lung metastasis, bone metastasis, and brain metastasis were 12.00 months (95% CI 11.73-12.27 months), 10.00 months (95% CI 9.60-10.41 months), 5.00 months (95% CI 4.52-5.48 months), and 3.00 months (95% CI 2.28-3.72 months), respectively. An older age, higher N stage, elevated carcinoembryonic antigen level, no surgery at the primary site and no/unknown treatment with chemotherapy were identified as homogeneous prognostic factors for the four types of metastases. The calibration curves, C-indexes and AUCs exhibited good performance for predicting the OS of patients with distant metastases to the liver, lung, bone, and brain.

CONCLUSIONS

CRC patients with distant metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain exhibited homogeneous and heterogeneous prognostic factors, all of which were associated with shorter survival. The nomograms showed good accuracy and may be used as tools for clinicians to predict the prognosis of CRC patients with distant metastasis.

Prognostic impact of colorectal cancer patients with bone metastases: a single-center experience

The incidence of bone metastasis (BM) in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients is low and the prognosis is poor. There is no clear conclusion on the risk factors affecting the survival of CRC patients with BM. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors that may affect the prognosis of CRC patients with BM. The clinical and pathological data of CRC patients with BM were retrospectively analyzed. The overall survival after BM diagnosis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test, and a multivariable cox regression model was used to identify the prognostic factors of overall survival. This study included 178 CRC patients with BM, of whom 151 had left-sided CRC and 27 had right-sided colon cancer. 1124 CRC patients with BM from the SEER database were included to perform a sensitivity analysis of the primary outcome. Multivariate analysis showed that the N staging, site of BM, and primary tumor sidedness (PTS) were independent prognostic factors for CRC with BM. Among them, right-sided colon cancer patients with BM had a poorer prognosis. Sensitivity analyses showed that PTS was an independent prognostic factor in CRC patients with BM. Primary tumor sidedness and N stage may be potential prognostic markers for BM of CRC. The prognosis of N0 stage CRC with BM is better, while the prognosis of right-sided colon cancer is poor.

Construction and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival in lung adenocarcinoma patients with different patterns of metastasis

OBJECTIVE

Metastasis of lung cancer is an important factor affecting survival. The present study proposed to establish and verify a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients with different patterns of metastasis.

METHODS

A total of 9727 patients diagnosed with metastatic LUAD patients from 2010 to 2015 were enrolled based on surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) Database and then randomly divided into training and validation cohorts, and 136 patients in our Cancer Center were enrolled as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic impact on OS. A prognostic nomogram was constructed and evaluated by C-index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and risk stratification system.

RESULTS

Ultimately, 6809 and 2918 patients diagnosed with metastatic LUAD in the training and validation cohorts were enrolled in the study, respectively. A male sex, a later T and N stage, a larger tumor size, treatment including no surgery, no chemotherapy and no radiotherapy, metastasis sites were found to be independent risk factors in LUAD patients for worse OS, and then incorporated into the nomogram. The frequency of bone metastasis was the highest, and in single site metastasis, the prognosis of liver metastasis was the worst. Two-site metastasis is more common than three-site and four-site metastasis, and co-metastasis eventually leads to a worse survival outcome. The C-index value of nomogram for predicting OS were 0.798, 0.703 and 0.698 in the internal training, validation and external validation cohorts, separately. The calibration curves for the 6-months, 1-year and 2-year showed significant agreement between nomogram models and actual observations. The DCA curves indicated nomogram was more beneficial than the AJCC TNM stage. Patients were further divided into low-risk and high-risk groups according to nomogram predicted scores and developed a survival risk classification system.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prognostic nomogram is expected to be an accurate and individualized clinical predictive tool for predicting OS in LUAD patients with different patterns of metastasis.

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for early-onset colon cancer in different tumor locations: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of early-onset colon cancer (EOCC) among individuals below the age of 50 has shown a marked upward trend in recent years. The embryology, clinical symptoms, incidence, molecular pathways, and oncologic outcomes differ between right-sided and left-sided colon cancers. However, the differences have not been fully researched in EOCC. Our study aims to develop and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for EOCC in different tumor locations based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Using the SEER database, a total of 5,588 patients with EOCC were extracted and divided into development and validation cohorts in a random allocation ratio of 7:3 across three groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors influencing OS and CSS outcomes. These factors were then utilized to construct nomogram models. The prognostic capabilities of the three models were assessed through various evaluation metrics, including the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and validation cohorts respectively. Additionally, survival curves of the low- and high-risk groups were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method together with the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Significant differences in clinical features were observed between right-sided and left-sided EOCCs, particularly in terms of OS (52 months vs 54 months) as demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier curves. Transverse-sided EOCCs exhibited clinical characteristics similar to right-sided EOCCs, suggesting a potential shared tumor microenvironment and therapeutic considerations. Advanced stage, liver metastasis, poor grade, elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, chemotherapy, and perineural invasion were identified as independent prognostic factors across all three tumor locations and were incorporated into the nomogram model. Nomograms were constructed to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The C-index and calibration plots showed that the established nomograms had good consistency between actual clinical observations and predicted outcomes. ROC curves with calculated area under the curve (AUC) values exceeded 0.8 for all three groups in both the development and validation cohorts, indicating robust predictive performance for OS and CSS. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) plots revealed a threshold probability range of 0.1 to 0.9, within which the nomogram model exhibited maximum benefit. Kaplan-Meier curves exhibited significant differences between the low- and high-risk groups in EOCC for all three tumor locations in OS and CSS, further validating the prognostic value of the nomogram models.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully developed three precise nomogram models for EOCCs in different tumor locations, providing valuable support for clinicians in guiding clinical treatments and facilitating further prospective follow-up studies.

The Role of Carbon Nanoparticles as Lymph Node Tracers in Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Colorectal malignancies are the third-most common malignancies worldwide, with a rising incidence. Surgery remains the treatment of choice and adequate lymph node dissection is required for accurate staging. The objective of this study is to assess the use of carbon nanoparticles in lymph node tracing and resection in cases of colorectal cancer. For that purpose, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies included in Medline, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar databases. In the end, ten studies with a total number of 1418 patients were included in the final statistical analysis. The meta-analysis carried out showed that the use of carbon nanoparticles results in an increased number of lymph nodes harvested (WMD 6.15, 95% CI 4.14 to 8.16, p < 0.001) and a higher rate of cases with more than 12 lymph nodes harvested (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.87 to 31.96, p = 0.0002). As a consequence, we suggest that carbon nanoparticles are used on a wider scale and that future research focuses on assessing the association between their use and overall patient survival. This study is limited by the fact that all included studies originate from China and by the fact that certain oncologic parameters and long-term outcomes have not been taken into account in the analysis.

Prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer patients with multi-organ metastases: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database analysis

BACKGROUND

A nomogram that integrates risk models and clinical characteristics can accurately predict the prognosis of individual patients. We aimed to identify the prognostic factors and establish nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) in patients with multi-organ metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS

Demographic and clinical information on multi-organ metastases from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors that were used to develop nomograms to predict CSS and OS, and to assess the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve.

RESULTS

The patients were randomly assigned to the training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. A Cox proportional hazards model was conducted for CRC patients to identify independent prognostic factors, including age, sex, tumor size, metastases, degree of differentiation, stage T, stage N, primary and metastasis surgery. The competing risk models employed by Fine and Gray were used to identify the risk factors for CRC. Death from other causes was treated as a competing event, and Cox models were used to identify the factors for death to identify the independent factors of CSS. By incorporating the corresponding independent prognostic factors, we established prognostic nomograms for OS and CSS. Finally, we used the C-index, ROC curve, and calibration plots to assess the utility of the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the SEER database, we constructed a predictive model for CRC patients with multi-organ metastases. Nomograms provide clinicians with 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS predictions for CRC, allowing them to formulate appropriate treatment plans.

Ten-year retrospect of the investigation of proximal limbs metastasis in cancer: a multi-center study on survival outcome, limb function status and surgical procedures analysis

BACKGROUND

The aim of study was to evaluate survival outcome and limb function in cancer patients with proximal limbs metastasis. Associated factors on survival outcome and limb function were identified. The comparative analysis between intramedullary nailing and prosthesis surgery in cancer patients with proximal limb metastasis was performed.

METHODS

In this five-center retrospective study, patients diagnosed with limbs metastasis were collected. Descriptive statistics was used and log-rank test was performed to analyze the survival in subgroups. The Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to identify the independent prognostic factors. The Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) scoring system was used to evaluate limb function after surgery, and t test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) was utilized in subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 316 patients with limb metastasis were included with mean age at 61.0 years. The most common primary tumor was breast, followed by renal cancer and lung cancer. The median overall survival was 24.0 months and the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 86.9%, 34.7% and 6.8%, respectively. Primary tumor type, visceral metastasis and chemotherapy were proved to be the independent prognostic factors. The mean Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) score was 20.5, significant difference was observed in subgroup of solitary/multiple bone metastasis, with/without pathological fracture, and type of surgery.

CONCLUSION

The present study concluded that primary tumor type, visceral metastasis and chemotherapy were three factors affecting the survival of patients. Compared with intramedullary nailing, the patients underwent prosthesis surgery showed better limb function, this procedure should be encouraged in patients with indication.

Prognostic Analysis of Lymphovascular Invasion in Stages I-III Colorectal Cancer: A Retrospective Study Based on Propensity Score Match

INTRODUCTION

Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is a micropathological tumor factor believed to increase the risk of tumor metastasis and spread. Propensity score matching (PSM) is a statistical method that can control confounding factors. Current research rarely considers the confounding relationship between LVI and other factors that may influence prognosis. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between LVI and prognosis in patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer (CRC) by using propensity score matching (PSM).

METHODS

This was a retrospective study involving 610 patients. PSM was used to adjust for baseline differences between the groups. The survival rates were calculated. A nomogram was constructed based on the Cox proportional hazards model before matching. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration curve were used to evaluate the nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 150 patients tested positive for LVI, accounting for 24.6% of the total, and 120 couples of patients were identified after PSM. The survival curve and Cox proportional hazards model after matching confirmed the adverse effects of LVI on tumor prognosis. The Cox proportional hazards model before matching showed that age, carcinoembryonic antigen level, T stage, N stage, histologic grade and LVI were independent prognostic factors. The C-index of the nomogram established based on the Cox proportional hazards model was 0.787 (95% CI=0.728-0.845). The areas under the curve were 0.796 in the 3-year ROC.

CONCLUSIONS

LVI is an adverse prognostic factor in patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer.

Prognostic value of extrahepatic metastasis on colon cancer with liver metastasis: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction

The occurrence of metastasis is a threat to patients with colon cancer (CC), and the liver is the most common metastasis organ. However, the role of the extrahepatic organs in patients with liver metastasis (LM) has not been distinctly demonstrated. Therefore, this research aimed to explore the prognostic value of extrahepatic metastases (EHMs).

Methods

In this retrospective study, a total of 13,662 colon patients with LM between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER). Fine and Gray's analysis and K-M survival analysis were utilized to explore the impacts of the number of sites of EHMs and different sites of EHMs on prognosis. Finally, a prognostic nomogram model based on the number of sites of EHMs was constructed, and a string of validation methods was conducted, including concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Patients without EHMs had better prognoses in cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) than patients with EHMs (p < 0.001). Varied EHM sites of patients had different characteristics of primary location site, grade, and histology. Cumulative incidence rates for CSS surpassed that for other causes in patients with 0, 1, 2, ≥ 3 EHMs, and the patients with more numbers of sites of EHMs revealed worse prognosis in CSS (p < 0.001). However, patients with different EHM sites had a minor difference in cumulative incidence rates for CSS (p = 0.106). Finally, a nomogram was constructed to predict the survival probability of patients with EHMs, which is based on the number of sites of EHMs and has been proven an excellent predictive ability.

Conclusion

The number of sites of EHMs was a significant prognostic factor of CC patients with LM. However, the sites of EHMs showed limited impact on survival. Furthermore, a nomogram based on the number of sites of EHMs was constructed to predict the OS of patients with EHMs accurately.

Cell-free circulating ALU repeats in serum have a prognostic value for colorectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is the only established serum biomarker for colorectal cancer (CRC). To facilitate therapy decisions and improve the overall survival of CRC patients, prognostic biomarkers are required.

OBJECTIVE

We studied the prognostic value of five different cell free circulating DNA (fcDNA) fragments. The potential markers were ALU115, ALU247, LINE1-79, LINE1-300 and ND1-mt.

METHODS

The copy numbers of the DNA fragments were measured in the peripheral blood serum of 268 CRC patients using qPCR, the results were compared to common and previously described markers.

RESULTS

We found that ALU115 and ALU247 fcDNA levels correlate significantly with several clinicopathological parameters. An increased amount of ALU115 and ALU247 fcDNA fragments coincides with methylation of HPP1 (P< 0.001; P< 0.01), which proved to be a prognostic marker itself in former studies and also with increased CEA level (P< 0.001). ALU115 and ALU247 can define patients with poor survival in UICC stage IV (Alu115: HR = 2.9; 95% Cl 1.8-4.8, P< 0.001; Alu247: HR = 2.2; 95% Cl 1.3-3.6; P= 0.001). Combining ALU115 and HPP1, the prognostic value in UICC stage IV is highly significant (P< 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that an increased level of ALU fcDNA is an independent prognostic biomarker for advanced colorectal cancer disease.

Predictive factors associated with anastomotic leakage after resection of rectal cancer: a multicenter study with the Hiroshima Surgical study group of Clinical Oncology

PURPOSE

Several factors have been reported as risk factors for anastomotic leakage after resection of rectal cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for anastomotic leakage, including nutritional and immunological indices, following rectal cancer resection.

METHODS

This study used a multicenter database of 803 patients from the Hiroshima Surgical study group of Clinical Oncology who underwent rectal resection with stapled anastomosis for rectal cancer between October 2016 and April 2020.

RESULTS

In total, 64 patients (8.0%) developed postoperative anastomotic leakage. Five factors were significantly associated with the development of anastomotic leakage after rectal cancer resection with stapled anastomosis: male sex, diabetes mellitus, C-reactive protein/albumin ratio ≥ 0.07, prognostic nutritional index < 40, and low anastomosis under peritoneal reflection. The incidence of anastomotic leakage was correlated with the number of risk factors. The novel predictive formula based on odds ratios in the multivariate analysis was useful for identifying patients at high risk for anastomotic leakage. Diverting ileostomy reduced the ratio of anastomotic leakage ≥ grade III after rectal cancer resection.

CONCLUSIONS

Male sex, diabetes mellitus, C-reactive protein/albumin ratio ≥ 0.07, prognostic nutritional index < 40, and low anastomosis under peritoneal reflection are possible risk factors for developing anastomotic leakage after rectal cancer resection with the stapled anastomosis. Patients at high risk of anastomotic leakage should be assessed for the potential benefits of diverting stoma.

Review of 5-FU resistance mechanisms in colorectal cancer: clinical significance of attenuated on-target effects

The emergence of chemoresistant disease during chemotherapy with 5-Fluorouracil-based (5-FU-based) regimens is an important factor in the mortality of metastatic CRC (mCRC). The causes of 5-FU resistance are multi-factorial, and besides DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MMR-D), there are no widely accepted criteria for determining which CRC patients are not likely to be responsive to 5-FU-based therapy. Thus, there is a need to systematically understand the mechanistic basis for 5-FU treatment failure and an urgent need to develop new approaches for circumventing the major causes of 5-FU resistance. In this manuscript, we review mechanisms of 5-FU resistance with an emphasis on: (1) altered anabolic metabolism limiting the formation of the primary active metabolite Fluorodeoxyuridylate (5-Fluoro-2'-deoxyuridine-5'-O-monophosphate; FdUMP); (2) elevated expression or activity of the primary enzymatic target thymidylate synthase (TS); and (3) dysregulated programmed cell death as important causes of 5-FU resistance. Importantly, these causes of 5-FU resistance can potentially be overcome through the use of next-generation fluoropyrimidine (FP) polymers (e.g., CF10) that display reduced dependence on anabolic metabolism and more potent TS inhibitory activity.

Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation

Background

The morbidity and mortality of young-onset colorectal cancer (YO-CRC) patients have been increasing in recent years. Moreover, YO-CRC patients with synchronous liver-only metastases (YO-CRCSLM) have various survival outcomes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with YO-CRCSLM.

Methods

The YO-CRCSLM patients were rigorously screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database in January 2010 and December 2018 and then assigned to a training and validation cohort randomly (1488 and 639 patients, respectively). Moreover, the 122 YO-CRCSLM patients who were enrolled in The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were served as a testing cohort. The variables were selected using the multivariable Cox model based on the training cohort and then developed a nomogram. The validation and testing cohort were used to validate the model's predictive accuracy. The calibration plots were used to determine the Nomogram's discriminative capabilities and precision, and the decision analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the Nomogram's net benefit. Finally, the Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed for the stratified patients based on total nomogram scores classified by the X-tile software.

Results

The Nomogram was constructed including ten variables: marital status, primary site, grade, metastatic lymph nodes ratio (LNR), T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), Surgery, and chemotherapy. The Nomogram performed admirably in the validation and testing group according to the calibration curves. The DCA analyses showed good clinical utility values. Low-risk patients (score<234) had significantly better survival outcomes than middle-risk (234-318) and high-risk (>318) patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

A nomogram predicting the survival outcomes for patients with YO-CRCSLM was developed. In addition to facilitating personalized survival prediction, this nomogram may assist in developing clinical treatment strategies for patients with YO-CRCSLM who are undergoing treatment.

A Novel Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients with Emergency Surgery for Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Long-term survival after emergency colorectal cancer surgery is low, and its estimation is most frequently neglected, with priority given to the immediate prognosis. This study aimed to propose an effective nomogram to predict overall survival in these patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively studied 437 patients who underwent emergency surgery for colorectal cancer between 2008 and 2019, in whom we analyzed the clinical, paraclinical, and surgical parameters.

RESULTS

Only 30 patients (6.86%) survived until the end of the study. We identified the risk factors through the univariate Cox regression analysis and a multivariate Cox regression model. The model included the following eight independent prognostic factors: age > 63 years, Charlson score > 4, revised cardiac risk index (RCRI), LMR (lymphocytes/neutrophils ratio), tumor site, macroscopic tumoral invasion, surgery type, and lymph node dissection (p < 0.05 for all), with an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.831, with an ideal agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities. On this basis, we constructed a nomogram for prediction of overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram created, on the basis of a multivariate logistic regression model, has a good individual prediction of overall survival for patients with emergency surgery for colon cancer and may support clinicians when informing patients about prognosis.

Establishment and validation of a prognostic nomogram for patients with early-onset stage I–II colon cancer

Background

The aims of this study were to establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the survival of patients with early-onset stage I–II colon cancer (CC).

Methods

Data of eligible patients enrolled from 2012 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly allocated to training and validation groups in a 7:3 ratio. Significant prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis and a nomogram model constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.

Results

Our study cohort comprised 3528 early-onset CC patients with stage I–II disease, 2469 of whom were allocated to the training cohort and 1059 to the validation cohort. Race, age, marital status, tumor grade, tumor size, tumor stage (T stage), and chemotherapy were considered the significant predictor by univariate analysis. Race, marital status, and T stage were found to be independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.724 and 0.692 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Likewise, the calibration plots showed good agreement regarding the probability of 3- and 5-year observed and nomogram-predicted overall survival in the training group. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram model was clinically practical and effective. Moreover, applying the nomogram enabled dividing of the patients into two cohorts with different risk scores. The low-risk group thus created had a better survival than the high-risk group.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a meaningful prognostic nomogram model for patients with early-onset stage I–II CC that clinicians can use to make better decisions for individual patients.

Identification and validation of a novel stress granules-related prognostic model in colorectal cancer

Aims: A growing body of evidence demonstrates that Stress granules (SGs), a non-membrane cytoplasmic compartments, are important to colorectal development and chemoresistance. However, the clinical and pathological significance of SGs in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients is unclear. The aim of this study is to propose a new prognostic model related to SGs for CRC on the basis of transcriptional expression. Main methods: Differentially expressed SGs-related genes (DESGGs) were identified in CRC patients from TCGA dataset by limma R package. The univariate and Multivariate Cox regression model was used to construct a SGs-related prognostic prediction gene signature (SGPPGS). The CIBERSORT algorithm was used to assess cellular immune components between the two different risk groups. The mRNA expression levels of the predictive signature from 3 partial response (PR) and 6 stable disease (SD) or progress disease (PD) after neoadjuvant therapy CRC patients' specimen were examined. Key findings: By screening and identification, SGPPGS comprised of four genes (CPT2, NRG1, GAP43, and CDKN2A) from DESGGs is established. Furthermore, we find that the risk score of SGPPGS is an independent prognostic factor to overall survival. Notably, the abundance of immune response inhibitory components in tumor tissues is upregulated in the group with a high-risk score of SGPPGS. Importantly, the risk score of SGPPGS is associated with the chemotherapy response in metastatic colorectal cancer. Significance: This study reveals the association between SGs related genes and CRC prognosis and provides a novel SGs related gene signature for CRC prognosis prediction.

Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Prognosis varies among stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). Our study aimed to build a robust prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with stage IV CRC in order to provide evidence for individualized treatment.

METHOD

We collected the information of 16,283 patients with stage IV CRC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and then randomized these patients in a ratio of 7:3 into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. In addition, 501 patients in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, China) database were selected and used as an external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out significant variables for nomogram establishment. The nomogram model was assessed using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (time-dependent ROC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULT

The C-index of the nomogram for OS in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.737, 0.727, and 0.655, respectively. ROC analysis and calibration curves pronounced robust discriminative ability of the model. Further, we divided the patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group according to the nomogram. Corresponding Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the prediction of the nomogram was consistent with the actual practice. Additionally, model comparisons and decision curve analysis proved that the nomogram for predicting prognosis was significantly superior to the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed a nomogram to predict OS of the stage IV CRC and externally validate its generalization, which was superior to the TNM staging system.

Plasminogen activator, urokinase enhances the migration, invasion, and proliferation of colorectal cancer cells by activating the Src/ERK pathway

Background

This paper aims to explore the effects of plasminogen activator, urokinase (PLAU) expression on the migration, invasion, and proliferation of colorectal cancer (CRC) cells and to preliminarily analyze its possible mechanism, thereby laying a foundation for the research on potential biological targets of CRC.

Methods

CRC-related mRNA was screened in Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gds/). Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were obtained for functional enrichment analysis. The enriched pathway and key involved functional gene were screened for further in vitro and in vivo analysis CRC cells were transfected with PLAU-NC (negative control), PLAU-mimic, and PLAU-inhibitor for 48 h and divided into the above groups for later studies. The migration, invasion, and proliferation capacities of CRC cells were detected using wound healing, Transwell, and colony formation assays, respectively. The Src inhibitor saracatinib (AZD0530) was added to the PLAU-NC and PLAU-mimic groups, and the expression levels of Src/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway-, migration-, invasion-, and proliferation-related proteins were detected by Western blotting.

Results

The results showed that after upregulation of PLAU, the number of CRC cells (SW480) that migrated to the center of the wound significantly increased, the number of cells that migrated and invaded through the basement membrane increased in the PLAU-mimic group, and the number of colonies also increased. These results suggest that increasing PLAU expression promotes the migration, invasion, and proliferation of CRC cells. At the same time, the molecular mechanism of PLAU in CRC cells was investigated by downregulating the protein expression of Src combined with the results of the bioinformatics analysis. Western blotting revealed that the protein expressions of phosphorylated Src (p-Src) and phosphorylated ERK (p-ERK) in SW480 and SW620 cells increased significantly in the PLAU-mimic group compared with the PLAU-NC group, while the results were the opposite in the PLAU-inhibitor group. After being treated with saracatinib, we observed significantly decreased protein levels of p-ERK, matrix metallopeptidase 2 (MMP-2), MMP-3, MMP-9, Cyclin D1, and Cyclin A2 in the SW480 cells.

Conclusions

In conclusion, PLAU affects the migration, invasion, and proliferation of CRC cells by activating the Src/ERK pathway.

Bone metastases are associated with worse prognosis in patients affected by metastatic colorectal cancer treated with doublet or triplet chemotherapy plus bevacizumab: a subanalysis of the TRIBE and TRIBE2 trials

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers; ∼20% of patients have metastases at diagnosis, and 50%-60% subsequently develop metachronous metastases. Bone involvement, despite being rare, is usually associated with higher disease burden, worse prognosis, impaired quality of life, and significant health-related cost. In the last few years, following the positive results of the TRIBE and TRIBE2 trials, the association of FOLFOXIRI plus bevacizumab has become the new standard of care for metastatic CRC. Despite being highly efficacious in all subgroups, little is known about the activity of this regimen in patients with bone metastases.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We carried out a pooled analysis of TRIBE and TRIBE2 studies focusing on patients with skeletal deposits.

RESULTS

Our analyses on the whole population showed that patients with baseline bone involvement reported shorter overall survival [OS; 14.0 versus 26.2 months; hazard ratio (HR) 2.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-2.87; P < 0.001] and progression-free survival (PFS; 6.2 versus 11.1 months; HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.42-2.69; P < 0.001) compared with those without bone metastases; no significant interaction with the treatment was reported for PFS (P = 0.094) and OS (P = 0.38). Bone metastases had a negative prognostic implication in the multivariate analysis (HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.54-3.26; P < 0.001). Furthermore, patients with bone lesions at first radiological progression (including those with baseline bone metastases) had a shorter OS compared with those who progressed in other sites (10.4 versus 13.2 months; HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.15-1.91; P = 0.002). A trend toward inferior OS (7.5 versus 11 months, HR 1.50, 95% CI 0.92-2.45; P = 0.10) appeared in patients with basal skeletal deposits compared with those with bone involvement at first radiological progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed the negative prognostic impact of bone metastases in CRC. Furthermore, we demonstrated for the first time that the survival advantage of triplet chemotherapy plus bevacizumab is maintained even in this prognostically unfavorable subgroup.

Development and validation of a prognostic scoring system for patients with colorectal cancer hepato-pulmonary metastasis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Hepato-pulmonary metastasis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a rare disease with poor prognosis. This study aims to establish a highly efficient nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with colorectal cancer hepato-pulmonary metastasis (CRCHPM).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients with CRCHPM from SEER database and Wuhan Union Hospital Cancer Center (WUHCC). A total of 1250 CRCHPM patients were randomly assigned to the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts from 2010 to 2016.Univariate and multivariate cox analysis were performed to identify independent clinicopathological predictors of OS and CSS, and a nomogram was constructed to predict OS and CSS in CRCHPM patients.

RESULTS

A nomogram of OS was constructed based on seven independent predictors of age, degree of differentiation, T stage, chemotherapy, number of lsampled lymph nodes, number of positive lymph nodes, and tumor size. Nomogram showed favorable sensitivity in predicting OS at 1, 3 and 5 years, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of 0.802, 0.759 and 0.752 in the training cohort;0.814, 0.769 and 0.716 in the internal validation cohort;0.778, 0.756 and 0.753 in the external validation cohort, respectively. A nomogram of CSS was constructed based on three independent predictors of T stage, chemotherapy, and tumor size. The AUROC values of 1, 3 and 5 years were 0.709,0.588,0.686 in the training cohort; 0.751, 0.648,0.666 in the internal validation cohort;0.781,0.588,0.645 in the external validation cohort, respectively. Calibration curves, Concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA) results revealed that using our model to predict OS and CSS is more efficient than other single clinicopathological characteristics.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram of OS and CSS based on clinicopathological characteristics can be conveniently used to predict the prognosis of CRCHPM patients.

Impact of chronological age on efficacy and safety of fluoropyrimidine plus bevacizumab in older non-frail patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: a combined analysis of individual data from two phase II studies of patients aged >75 years

OBJECTIVE

Many clinical trials for older patients with metastatic colorectal cancer have been conducted, and fluoropyrimidine and bevacizumab are standard treatments. However, the relationship between age and the efficacy and safety of this treatment is unclear in older metastatic colorectal cancer patients.

METHODS

Individual data from two phase II studies on older (≥75 years), non-frail patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with uracil-tegafur/leucovorin or S-1 combined with bevacizumab were collected. Patient characteristics were evaluated with multiple regression analyses for survival outcomes, using the Cox proportional hazard model and linear regression analyses for the worst grade of adverse events.

RESULTS

We enrolled 102 patients with a median age of 80 years (range, 75-88 years). Of the 70 patients who died, seven (10%) died of causes unrelated to disease or treatment. The study treatment was discontinued due to adverse events in 19 patients (18.6%), with 63% aged ≥85 years. The adverse event that most commonly resulted in treatment discontinuation was grade 2 fatigue (21%). Chronological age was not associated with progression-free survival (Hazard ratio, 1.03; P = 0.40) or overall survival (Hazard ratio, 1.02; P = 0.65). Age was weakly associated with non-hematologic adverse events (regression coefficient [R], 0.27; P = 0.007), especially fatigue (R, 0.23; P = 0.02) and nausea (R, 0.19; P = 0.06), but not with hematologic (R, 0.05; P = 0.43) or bevacizumab-related (R, -0.06; P = 0.56) adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficacy of fluoropyrimidine plus bevacizumab was age-independent in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer aged ≥75 years, and attention should be paid to non-hematologic adverse events as age increases.

Predicting Distant Metastasis in Young-Onset Colorectal Cancer After Surgery: A Retrospective Study

Background

Although overall colorectal cancer (CRC) cases have been declining worldwide, there has been an increase in the incidence of the CRC among individuals younger than 50 years old, which is associated with distant metastasis (DM) and poor prognosis.

Methods

Young-onset CRC patients' postoperative data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between January 2010 and December 2015. Data from the SEER database were divided into early stage and advanced stage according to whether chemoradiotherapy was recommended in the guidelines. Independent risk factors for DM were explored by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression separately. A predictive model was established and presented as nomogram in the training set of advanced stage. The model was internally verified in testing set and externally validated in a cohort of 145 patients from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. The accuracy, reliability, and clinical application value were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. Different risk subgroups of DM were classified according to the scores of the nomogram in the training set of advanced stage.

Results

A total of 5,584 patients were eligible and enrolled in our study in which 1,277 were in early stage and 4,307 in advanced stage. Preoperative CEA positive was found to be an independent predictor of DM in early stage. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that tumor size, degree of differentiation, T stage, N stage, preoperative CEA, and whether radiation or chemotherapy performed were independent risk factors for DM (all, p < 0.05) in advanced stage. Great accuracies were achieved in our nomogram with AUC of 0.801 in training set, 0.811 in testing set, and 0.791 in the validation cohort, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA in internal validation and external validation both showed good stability and clinical utility values.

Conclusions

Preoperative CEA positive was a significant predictor of DM for young-onset CRC patients. A novel nomogram containing clinical and pathological features was established for predicting DM of advanced CRC in patients younger than 50 years old. This tool may serve as an early alert for clinicians to DM and make better clinical treatment regimens.

Predicting metachronous liver metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer: development and assessment of a new nomogram

Background

We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model, which could predict metachronous liver metastasis in colorectal cancer within two years after diagnosis.

Methods

A retrospective study was performed on colorectal cancer patients who were admitted to Beijing Shijitan Hospital from January 1, 2016 to June 30, 2019. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to optimize feature selection for susceptibility to metachronous liver metastasis in colorectal cancer. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to establish a predictive model through incorporating features selected in the LASSO regression model. C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to assess discrimination, distinctiveness, consistency with actual occurrence risk, and clinical utility of candidate predictive model. Internal validation was assessed with bootstrapping method.

Results

Predictors contained in candidate prediction nomogram included age, CEA, vascular invasion, T stage, N stage, family history of cancer, and KRAS mutation. This model displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.787 (95% confidence interval: 0.728–0.846) and good calibration, whereas area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.786. Internal validation obtained C-index of 0.786, and AUC of validation cohort is 0.784. Based on DCA, with threshold probability range from 1 to 60%; this predictive model might identify colorectal cancer metachronous liver metastasis to achieve a net clinical benefit.

Conclusion

We have developed and validated a prognostic nomogram with good discriminative and high accuracy to predict metachronous liver metastasis in CRC patients.

PBX4 functions as a potential novel oncopromoter in colorectal cancer: a comprehensive analysis of the PBX gene family

Pre-B-cell leukaemia (PBX) is a transcription factor family (PBX1, PBX2, PBX3 and PBX4) that regulates important cellular functions and has been identified to be involved in human cancers. This study aimed to explore the expression of PBX genes and their clinical significance in colorectal cancer (CRC). We analysed the differential expression of PBX genes in CRC vs. normal tissue, using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) (https://portal.gdc.cancer.gov/) and ONCOMINE platform (https://www.oncomine.org/). The UALCAN (http://ualcan.path.uab.edu/) interactive OMICS web-server was used to evaluate the epigenetic regulation of PBX genes via their promoter methylation status. We found that only PBX4 was upregulated whereas PBX1 and PBX3 were downregulated (644 tumour vs. 51 normal samples) (P<0.001). The methylation status of PBX4 promoter appeared to be decreased (P=1.4e-07) whereas the methylation status of PBX1 and PBX3 promoters was increased (P=3.8e-04 and P=3.2e-07, respectively) in cancer vs. normal samples. To determine the prognostic value of PBXs, we conducted a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable COX regression. We observed that high PBX4 expression was associated with increased risk for a worse overall survival (OS) in the TCGA CRC patient cohort (n=639), (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.14-1.88, P=0.003) adjusted for age, gender, tumour location and metastases. We conducted in vitro gene expression modulation experiments to investigate the impact of PBX4 overexpression in CRC cell (HCT116) growth. Additionally, we evaluated the RNA expression of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and angiogenesis markers. In vitro studies showed that PBX4 overexpression increased CRC cell proliferation (P<0.001) and upregulated the expression of EMT markers VIM, CDH1, CDH2, ZEB1, SNAI1 (P<0.05) and angiomarker VEGFA (P<0.0001). Lastly, through the Cistrome data browser (http://dbtoolkit.cistrome.org/) we investigated putative transcriptional regulators and we performed gene set enrichment analysis in Enrichr server (https://maayanlab.cloud/Enrichr/) to identify related biological processes. Nineteen factors were identified to be putative regulators of PBX4 and gene set enrichment analysis showed that biological processes related to cell cycle and cell proliferation were enriched (GO:0051726: CDK8, JUN, JUND, and IRF1, P=0.001). In conclusion, our study identified PBX4 as a potential novel oncopromoter in CRC and its overexpression was found to be associated with increased risk for worse survival rate.

Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Acral Lentiginous Melanoma: A Population-based Study

Background

The objective of this study was to establish a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM).

Materials and Methods

The study sample was selected from 1785 patients diagnosed with ALM from 2004 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and R software was used to divide patients into the training cohort and validation cohort at a ratio of 7: 3. Stepwise selection method in the Cox regression model was used in the training cohort to select predictive variables to construct the nomogram, and model validation parameters were used in the validation cohort to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

Results

The nomogram showed that age at diagnosis had the greatest impact on OS in patients with ALM, followed by AJCC stage, surgical treatment, SEER stage, sex, race, and marital status. The index of concordance, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, and decision curve analysis demonstrate the good performance of this nomogram.

Conclusion

The prognostic value of the nomogram is superior to that of the AJCC staging system alone, and it helps clinicians to better predict 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS in patients with ALM.

Pattern of distant metastases and predictive nomograms in colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma: a SEER analysis

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the metastatic patterns and explored the prognostic value of distant metastasis pattern in patients with metastatic colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MC) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Between 2010 and 2015, newly diagnosed colorectal MC patients were selected using the SEER database. Patient prognosis was compared based on the clinicopathological parameters, treatment method, and the site and number of metastatic organs. Cox analyses were used to identify factors associated with overall survival (OS). A nomogram was built to predict the patient's survival. Harrell's concordance index (c-index) and calibration curves were used to analyze the discriminative ability of the prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Of 3,088 patients diagnosed with colorectal MC, the liver was the only metastatic organ in 78.4% (997/1,271) of all liver metastasis cases, the lung was the only metastatic organ in 41.0% (164/400) of all lung metastasis cases, bone was the only metastatic organ in 26.6% (29/109) of all bone metastasis cases, and the brain was the only metastatic organ in 23.5% (4/17) of all brain metastasis cases. Compared with the untreated cases, those treated with chemotherapy, surgery, and radiotherapy had better OS (P<0.001). There were marked OS differences (P<0.001) between patients with and without liver and bone metastases. Patients with bone metastasis had the best survival, while those with brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Patients with one metastatic site had better prognosis compared to those with two or three (P<0.001). Patients with liver metastasis had the best survival, while those with bone and brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age <65 years, non-black race, grade I, N0 stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, liver metastasis, and bone metastasis were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict survival probability. The c-index value was up to 0.745. The calibration plot showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

Metastatic MC (mMC) patients had a characteristic distant metastasis pattern. This study constructed a new and sufficiently accurate prognostic model of mMC based on population-based data. These findings can be utilized to predict prognosis and guide mMC patient management.

Phase I Dose-Escalation Trial of an Innovative Chemotherapy Regimen Combining a Fractionated Dose of Irinotecan Plus Bevacizumab, Oxaliplatin, 5-Fluorouracil, and Folinic Acid (bFOLFIRINOX-3) in Chemorefractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Simple Summary

Treatment of non-resectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) involves chemotherapy based on 5-fluorouracil, oxaliplatin and irinotecan and monoclonal antibodies targeting VEGF or EGFR. After an initial progression, it is usual to change the chemotherapy regimen and targeted therapy, with rather moderate results. Several studies have focused on the interest of using again already used molecules and rechallenge with oxaliplatin and irinotecan bi fractionation (FOLFIRI3) have previously shown efficacy in chemorefractory patients, but desynchronized triplet chemotherapy was never tested. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a new regimen so-called: FOLFIRINOX-3 bevacizumab in chemorefractory metastatic colorectal cancer.

Abstract

The care of metastatic colorectal cancers is based on combination chemotherapies including 5-fluorouracil, oxaliplatin, irinotecan, and monoclonal antibodies targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor or vascular endothelial growth factor. The regimen is determined based on the patient’s molecular biology and general condition. Irinotecan bifractionation showed efficacy in chemorefractory patients in a previous study, FOLFIRI-3, but a desynchronized triplet has never been tested. The aim of bFOLFIRINOX-3 is to determine the safety, tolerance, and efficacy of a new regimen (FOLFIRINOX-3 bevacizumab) in chemorefractory patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of FOLFIRINOX-3 bevacizumab in chemorefractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). A standard phase I, “3 + 3” design study was performed. The standard protocol comprised simplified FOLFOX 4 (folinic acid 400 mg/m²), 5-fluorouracil (a 400 mg/m² bolus followed by 2400 mg/m² for 46 h), oxaliplatin (85 mg/m²) and irinotecan (administered before and after 5-fluorouracil infusion), plus bevacizumab (5 mg/kg). In a “3 + 3” design, three different doses of irinotecan were tested: 60, 70 and 90 mg/m². The primary endpoint was the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) of irinotecan. The secondary endpoints included the objective response (at 8 and 16 weeks) according to the RECIST 1.1 criteria and progression free survival. Thirteen patients were enrolled, and twelve patients were finally evaluated for dose-limiting toxicity (DLT). The dose level defined was 70 mg/m² irinotecan. A total of three DLTs were observed (grade 3 diarrhea): two DLTs at the 90 mg/m² dose level and one at the 70 mg/m² dose level. The most frequently described adverse events were asthenia (93%), diarrhea (77%), nausea (62%) and peripheral sensory neuropathy (46%). The most frequent biological event was thrombopenia (54%). Regarding efficacy, among the 11 evaluable patients, no progression was observed at 8 weeks, and the partial response rate was 18.2%. At 16 weeks, a partial response rate of 27.3% was observed, and five patients had a stable disease. The new regimen of bFOLFIRINOX-3 with irinotecan at 70 mg/m² was well tolerated. In chemorefractory patients, this protocol shows a high response rate.

Predictive Nomogram for the Prediction of Early Recurrence of Colorectal Cancer

Aim

The prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) individuals after curative resection is not satisfactory due to the early recurrence. We sought to identify the affecting features of early recurrence in CRC patients.

Methods

A total of 3500 CRC patients underwent curative resection were retrospectively incorporated into our study. Among them, 246 patients exhibited tumor recurrence: 121 had early recurrence (≤1 year after operation) and 125 had late recurrence (>1 year after operation). A total of 246 CRC patients with recurrence were randomly assigned into the training group (N=177) or validation group (N=69) based on the ratio of 7:3. LASSO COX regression and support vector machine (SVM) were utilized to screen for the significant clinical indexes associated with the presence of early recurrence. Recurrent nomogram was created based on the above informative parameters to predict the probability of early recurrence.

Results

Proportion of advanced TNM stage, platelet count, systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), CA-199, CA-125, lactate dehydrogenase, total bile acid (TBA), urea nitrogen were significantly higher in early recurrence group compared with that in late recurrence group. Results from LASSO COX regression and support vector machine (SVM) revealed that TNM stage, CA-199, CA125, SII and TBA were strong predictors for the presence of early recurrence among postoperative CRC patients in the training group. The recurrent nomogram based on the five predictors exhibited good predictive performance as calculated by C-index (0.846, 95% CI 0.789-0.902 in the training group and 0.799, 95% CI 0.697-0.902 in the validation group) for the prediction of early recurrence. Moreover, the recurrent nomogram exhibited not only encouraging calibration ability, but also great clinical utility both in the training group and validation group.

Conclusion

TNM stage, CA-199, CA125, SII and TBA were closely correlated with the presence of early recurrence of CRC patients. The recurrent nomogram held well predictive ability for the identification of CRC patients with early recurrence.