Is mass screening for coeliac disease a wise use of resources? A health economic evaluation

Patient and Community Health Global Burden in a World With More Celiac Disease

Celiac disease is one of the most common life-long disorders worldwide, with a prevalence mostly ranging between 0.7% and 2.9% in the general population and a higher frequency in females and well-defined at-risk groups, such as relatives of affected individuals and patients with autoimmune comorbidities. Increasing clinical detection is facilitated by improving awareness, implementation of a case-finding approach, and serology availability for screening at-risk patients, among other factors. Nevertheless, due to huge clinical variability, many celiac disease cases still escape diagnosis in most countries, unless actively searched by proactive policies. The burden of celiac disease is increasing, as is the need for better longitudinal care. Pediatric screening of the general population could represent the road ahead for an efficient intervention of secondary prevention aimed to reduce the social and health burden of celiac disease. This review analyses the epidemiology of celiac disease continent by continent, discusses current strategies to improve the detection of celiac disease, and highlights challenges related to the burden of celiac disease globally.

Identifying the Optimum Strategy for Identifying Adults and Children With Celiac Disease: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Celiac disease (CD) is thought to affect around 1% of people in the United Kingdom, but only approximately 30% are diagnosed. The aim of this work was to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying adults and children with CD in terms of who to test and which tests to use.

METHODS

A decision tree and Markov model were used to describe testing strategies and model long-term consequences of CD. The analysis compared a selection of pre-test probabilities of CD above which patients should be screened, as well as the use of different serological tests, with or without genetic testing. Value of information analysis was used to prioritize parameters for future research.

RESULTS

Using serological testing alone in adults, immunoglobulin A (IgA) tissue transglutaminase (tTG) at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening) was most cost-effective. If combining serological testing with genetic testing, human leukocyte antigen combined with IgA tTG at a 5% pre-test probability was most cost-effective. In children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leukocyte antigen plus IgA tTG. Value of information analysis highlighted the probability of late diagnosis of CD and the accuracy of serological tests as important parameters. The analysis also suggested prioritizing research in adult women over adult men or children.

CONCLUSIONS

For adults, these cost-effectiveness results suggest UK National Screening Committee Criteria for population-based screening for CD should be explored. Substantial uncertainty in the results indicate a high value in conducting further research.

Population level screening for celiac disease: is now the time?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

As incidence and prevalence of celiac disease is increasing, subclinical and asymptomatic presentations are more commonly identified through celiac disease screening. However, the United States Preventive Services Task Force released a statement in 2017 maintaining that there is insufficient evidence to recommend general population screening for celiac disease for asymptomatic individuals. This review summarizes the current available evidence on celiac disease screening.

RECENT FINDINGS

Literature demonstrates that by limiting screening to individuals with recognized symptoms, celiac disease diagnosis is frequently delayed or missed entirely. Most individuals with screening-identified celiac disease have previously unrecognized symptoms that improve through treatment with a gluten-free diet. Screening-identified individuals also demonstrate signs of impaired nutrition, growth, bone health, and quality of life which improve with treatment. Overall, celiac disease screening is viewed favorably by those identified through celiac disease screening programs.

SUMMARY

Individuals with screening-identified celiac disease may still incur complications from untreated disease and receive benefit from treatment with a gluten-free diet. More data is needed to determine the cost effectiveness of different mass screening approaches that incorporate the societal perspective towards screening.

Population-Based Screening for Coeliac Disease in Lithuanian Children from 2009 to 2014

Background and Objectives. Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder provoked by a dietary group of proteins called gluten in genetically predisposed individuals. Over the past several decades, the prevalence of coeliac disease has been steadily growing and it is now recognized to be occurring worldwide. The prevalence varies greatly between ethnic, racial groups and regionally. Such variability makes local epidemiological studies important for spreading awareness and setting a threshold for suspicion of coeliac disease. We explored the potential application of a quick point-of-care test for the purpose of detecting a presence of IgA class TG2 antibodies for coeliac disease and screening in a Lithuanian pediatric population. Previously, there were no data regarding coeliac disease prevalence in Lithuania. Materials and Methods. Overall, we included 1458 children 11-13 years of age from several Lithuanian schools selected randomly in this study. Utilizing one point-of-care test using a single blood sample taken from a fingertip, we identified the existence of IgA class TG2 antibodies. Only children whose parents gave consent were enrolled in the study. Those with positive IgA class TG2-ab were directed to a tertiary hospital for additional clinical assessment and confirmation of suspected coeliac disease. Results. A total of two (0.14%) of the 1458 enrolled children were detected with the presence of TG2 antibodies and the coeliac disease diagnosis was further confirmed with histological examination of duodenal biopsy samples. Additionally, we checked that patients had not previously reported any clinical symptoms and signs that could suggest coeliac disease or any other disease of the gastrointestinal tract. Conclusions. The detected prevalence of coeliac disease in the Lithuanian pediatric population is 1:729. The rapid finger prick test for the presence of IgA class TG2 antibodies is a reasonable and accurate method to screen for celiac disease in children.

Prevalence and detection rate of celiac disease in Italy: Results of a SIGENP multicenter screening in school-age children

BACKGROUND

Celiac disease is a common lifelong disorder. Recent studies indicate that the number of clinically detected cases has increased over the last decades, however little is known about changes in the prevalence and the detection rate of celiac disease.

AIM

To evaluate the current prevalence and detection rate of celiac disease in Italy by a multicenter, mass screening study on a large sample of school-age children.

METHODS

children aged 5-11 years were screened at school by HLA-DQ2 and -DQ8 determination on a drop of blood in six Italian cities; total serum IgA and IgA anti-transglutaminase were determined in children showing HLA-DQ2 and/or -DQ8 positivity. Diagnosis of celiac disease was confirmed according to the European guidelines.

RESULTS

5994 children were eligible, 4438 participated and 1873 showed predisposing haplotypes (42.2%, 95% CI=40.7-43.7). The overall prevalence of celiac disease was 1.65% (95% CI, 1.34%-2.01%). Only 40% of celiac children had been diagnosed prior to the school screening. Symptoms evoking celiac disease were as common in celiac children as in controls.

CONCLUSION

In this multicenter study the prevalence of celiac disease in school-age Italian children was one of the highest in the world. Determination of HLA predisposing genotypes is an easy and fast first-level screening test for celiac disease. Without a mass screening strategy, 60% of celiac patients remain currently undiagnosed in Italy.

Coeliac Disease Case-Control Study: Has the Time Come to Explore beyond Patients at Risk?

The worldwide prevalence of asymptomatic coeliac disease (CD) is increasing, which is in part due to the routine screening of children with risk factors. Both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with CD are at risk of long-term complications. The objective of this study was to compare the clinical characteristics of asymptomatic and symptomatic children at the time of CD diagnosis. A case-control study was conducted using data from a cohort of 4838 CD patients recruited from 73 centers across Spain between 2011 and 2017. A total of 468 asymptomatic patients (cases) were selected and matched by age and sex with 468 symptomatic patients (controls). Clinical data, including any reported symptoms, as well as serologic, genetic, and histopathologic data were collected. No significant differences were found between the two groups in most clinical variables, nor in the degree of intestinal lesion. However, the asymptomatic patients were taller (height z-score -0.12 (1.06) vs. -0.45 (1.19), p < 0.001) and were less likely to have anti transglutaminase IgA antibodies ≥ 10 times the upper normal limit (66.2% vs. 758.4%, p = 0.002). Among the 37.1% of asymptomatic patients who were not screened for CD due to the absence of risk factors, only 34% were truly asymptomatic, while the remaining 66% reported non-specific CD-related symptoms. Therefore, expanding CD screening to any child who undergoes a blood test could reduce the burden of care for some children, as many of those considered asymptomatic reported non-specific CD-related symptoms.

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling

BACKGROUND

Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disorder triggered by ingesting gluten. It affects approximately 1% of the UK population, but only one in three people is thought to have a diagnosis. Untreated coeliac disease may lead to malnutrition, anaemia, osteoporosis and lymphoma.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to define at-risk groups and determine the cost-effectiveness of active case-finding strategies in primary care.

DESIGN

(1) Systematic review of the accuracy of potential diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease. (2) Routine data analysis to develop prediction models for identification of people who may benefit from testing for coeliac disease. (3) Systematic review of the accuracy of diagnostic tests for coeliac disease. (4) Systematic review of the accuracy of genetic tests for coeliac disease (literature search conducted in April 2021). (5) Online survey to identify diagnostic thresholds for testing, starting treatment and referral for biopsy. (6) Economic modelling to identify the cost-effectiveness of different active case-finding strategies, informed by the findings from previous objectives.

DATA SOURCES

For the first systematic review, the following databases were searched from 1997 to April 2021: MEDLINE® (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA), Embase® (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Cochrane Library, Web of Science™ (Clarivate™, Philadelphia, PA, USA), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform ( WHO ICTRP ) and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For the second systematic review, the following databases were searched from January 1990 to August 2020: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews ( KSR ) Evidence, WHO ICTRP and the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials database. For prediction model development, Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and a subcohort of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used; for estimates for the economic models, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was used.

REVIEW METHODS

For review 1, cohort and case-control studies reporting on a diagnostic indicator in a population with and a population without coeliac disease were eligible. For review 2, diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting with coeliac disease symptoms who were tested with serological tests for coeliac disease and underwent a duodenal biopsy as reference standard were eligible. In both reviews, risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analyses were fitted, in which binomial likelihoods for the numbers of true positives and true negatives were assumed.

RESULTS

People with dermatitis herpetiformis, a family history of coeliac disease, migraine, anaemia, type 1 diabetes, osteoporosis or chronic liver disease are 1.5-2 times more likely than the general population to have coeliac disease; individual gastrointestinal symptoms were not useful for identifying coeliac disease. For children, women and men, prediction models included 24, 24 and 21 indicators of coeliac disease, respectively. The models showed good discrimination between patients with and patients without coeliac disease, but performed less well when externally validated. Serological tests were found to have good diagnostic accuracy for coeliac disease. Immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase had the highest sensitivity and endomysial antibody the highest specificity. There was little improvement when tests were used in combination. Survey respondents (n = 472) wanted to be 66% certain of the diagnosis from a blood test before starting a gluten-free diet if symptomatic, and 90% certain if asymptomatic. Cost-effectiveness analyses found that, among adults, and using serological testing alone, immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase was most cost-effective at a 1% pre-test probability (equivalent to population screening). Strategies using immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody plus human leucocyte antigen or human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability had similar cost-effectiveness results, which were also similar to the cost-effectiveness results of immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase at a 1% pre-test probability. The most practical alternative for implementation within the NHS is likely to be a combination of human leucocyte antigen and immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing among those with a pre-test probability above 1.5%. Among children, the most cost-effective strategy was a 10% pre-test probability with human leucocyte antigen plus immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase, but there was uncertainty around the most cost-effective pre-test probability. There was substantial uncertainty in economic model results, which means that there would be great value in conducting further research.

LIMITATIONS

The interpretation of meta-analyses was limited by the substantial heterogeneity between the included studies, and most included studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The main limitations of the prediction models were that we were restricted to diagnostic indicators that were recorded by general practitioners and that, because coeliac disease is underdiagnosed, it is also under-reported in health-care data. The cost-effectiveness model is a simplification of coeliac disease and modelled an average cohort rather than individuals. Evidence was weak on the probability of routine coeliac disease diagnosis, the accuracy of serological and genetic tests and the utility of a gluten-free diet.

CONCLUSIONS

Population screening with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase (1% pre-test probability) and of immunoglobulin A endomysial antibody followed by human leucocyte antigen testing or human leucocyte antigen testing followed by immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase with any pre-test probability appear to have similar cost-effectiveness results. As decisions to implement population screening cannot be made based on our economic analysis alone, and given the practical challenges of identifying patients with higher pre-test probabilities, we recommend that human leucocyte antigen combined with immunoglobulin A tissue transglutaminase testing should be considered for adults with at least a 1.5% pre-test probability of coeliac disease, equivalent to having at least one predictor. A more targeted strategy of 10% pre-test probability is recommended for children (e.g. children with anaemia).

FUTURE WORK

Future work should consider whether or not population-based screening for coeliac disease could meet the UK National Screening Committee criteria and whether or not it necessitates a long-term randomised controlled trial of screening strategies. Large prospective cohort studies in which all participants receive accurate tests for coeliac disease are needed.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019115506 and CRD42020170766.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Five-year follow-up of new cases after a coeliac disease mass screening

OBJECTIVE

We previously performed a population-based mass screening of coeliac disease in children aged 12 years in two birth cohorts resulting in 296 seropositive children, of whom 242 were diagnosed with coeliac disease after duodenal biopsies. In this follow-up study, we wanted to identify new cases in the screening population that tested negative-either converting from potential coeliac disease (seropositive but normal duodenal mucosa) or converting from seronegative at screening to diagnosed coeliac disease.

METHODS

All seropositive children were invited to a follow-up appointment 5 years after the screening with renewed serological testing and recommended endoscopic investigation if seropositive. Seronegative children in the screening study (n=12 353) were linked to the National Swedish Childhood Coeliac Disease Register to find cases diagnosed in healthcare during the same period.

RESULTS

In total, 230 (77%) came to the follow-up appointment, including 34 of 39 with potential coeliac disease. Of these, 11 (32%) had converted to coeliac disease. One new case was found in the National Swedish Childhood Coeliac Disease Register who received the diagnosis through routine screening in children with type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high risk of conversion to coeliac disease among those with potential disease. However, a negative screening test was associated with a very low risk for a clinical diagnosis within a follow-up period of 5 years.