Association between early elevated phosphate and mortality among critically ill elderly patients: a retrospective cohort study

Cardiac index and heart rate as prognostic indicators for mortality in septic shock: A retrospective cohort study from the MIMIC-IV database

Background

Septic shock is a life-threatening condition that can lead to organ dysfunction and death. In the ICU, monitoring of cardiac index (CI) and heart rate (HR) is commonly used to guide management and predict outcomes in septic shock patients. However, there is a lack of research on the association between CI and HR and the risk of mortality in this patient population. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between different levels of CI and HR and mortality in septic shock patients.

Methods

Data analysis was obtained from the MIMIC-IV version 2.0 database. Sepsis and septic shock were primarily defined by sepsis-3, the third international consensus on sepsis and septic shock. CI was computed using cardiac output (CO) and body surface area (BSA). To evaluate the incidence of CI with respect to each endpoint (7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortality), a restricted cubic spline curve function (RCS) was used. The optimal cutoff value for predicted mortality was determined using the Youden index. Analyses of KM curves, cox regression, and logistic regression were conducted separately to determine the relationship between various CI and HR and 28-day mortality.

Results

This study included 1498 patients with septic shock. A U-shaped relationship between CI levels and risk of mortality in septic shock was found by RCS analysis (p < 0.001). CI levels within the intermediate range of 1.85-2.8 L/min/m2 were associated with a mortality hazard ratio (HR) < 1. In contrast, low CI (HR = 1.87 95% CI: 1.01-3.49) and high CI (HR = 1.93 95% CI: 1.26-2.97) had a significantly increased risk of mortality. The AUC for heart rate prediction of mortality by Youden index analysis was 0.70 95%CI:0.64-0.76 with a cut-off value of 93.63 bpm. According to the characteristics of HR and CI, patients were divided into six subgroups HR↓+CI intermediate group (n = 772), HR↓+CI↓ group (n = 126), HR↓+CI↑ group (n = 294), HR↑+CI intermediate group (n = 132), HR↑+CI↓ group (n = 24), and HR↑+CI↑ group (n = 150). The KM curves, COX regression, and logistic regression analysis showed that the survival rates the of HR↓+CI intermediate group, HR↓+CI↓ group, and HR↓+CI↑ were higher than the other groups. The risk factors of HR↑+CI intermediate group, HR↑+CI↓, and HR↑+CI↑ with ICU 28-day mortality were HR = 2.91 (95% CI: 1.39-5.97), HR = 3.67 (95% CI: 1.39-11.63), and HR = 5.77 (95% CI: 2.98-11.28), respectively.

Conclusion

Our retrospective study shows that monitoring cardiac index and heart rate in patients with septic shock may help predict the organismal response and hemodynamic consequences, as well as the prognosis. Thus, healthcare providers should carefully monitor changes in these parameters in septic shock patients transferred to the ICU for treatment.

Exploring the association between serum phosphate levels and mortality in patients hospitalized with infectious diseases: a nationwide study

Objective

The purpose of this study was to examine associations of serum phosphate levels with mortality, target organ damage and length of hospital stay in adults with infectious diseases hospitalized outside of the intensive care unit.

Methods

This nationwide retrospective cohort study comprised patients admitted with infections, to medical and surgical departments in eight tertiary hospitals during 2001-2020. The main exposure variable was the first serum phosphate levels at admission (up to 1 week). The analysis included multivariable logistic regression models and quantile regression.

Results

Of 126,088 patients (49% males, mean age: 69.3 years), 24,809 (19.7%) had decreased phosphate levels, 92,730 (73.5%) normal phosphate levels, and 8,549 (6.8%) elevated phosphate levels on admission. Overall- and in-hospital mortality rates were highest among those with hyperphosphatemia (74.5 and 16.4%, respectively), followed by those with normophosphatemia (57.0 and 6.6%), and lastly the hypophosphatemia group (48.7 and 5.6%); p < 0.001 for all. After adjusting for confounders, the lowest predicted mortality rate was observed in the normophosphatemia group. In the multivariable model, hyperphosphatemia conferred a higher probability of target organ damage (OR [95% CI]: 2.43 [2.06-2.86]), while moderate hypophosphatemia conferred a lower probability (OR [95% CI]: 0.73 [0.65-0.82]), compared to normal phosphate levels and extreme hypophosphatemia showed a non-significant association (OR [95% CI]: 0.87 [0.57-1.28]). The associations were independent of renal failure. In a multivariable model, hyperphosphatemia was associated with a slight increase of 0.33 days in length of stay compared to normal phosphate levels.

Conclusion

A J-shaped relation was found between phosphate levels and prognosis in patients hospitalized with infectious diseases, regardless of their renal function.

Association of serum phosphate and changes in serum phosphate with 28-day mortality in septic shock from MIMIC-IV database

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum phosphate levels, changes in serum phosphate levels, and 28-day mortality in patients with septic shock. In this retrospective study, data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database between 2008 and 2019. Patients were divided into three groups according to the tertiles of serum phosphate levels. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank test analyses were used for survival analysis. Multivariate logistic regression, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) curve were used to explore the association between serum phosphate, delta serum phosphate levels and 28-day mortality. In total, 3296 patients with septic shock were included in the study, and the 28-day mortality was 30.0%. Serum phosphate levels were significantly higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant differences among the three groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and the RCS curve showed that serum phosphate levels were independently and positively associated with the 28-day mortality of septic shock. Non-survivors had higher delta serum phosphate levels than survivors. Survival analysis showed that patients with higher delta serum phosphate levels had higher 28-day mortality. A non-linear relationship was detected between delta serum phosphate and 28-day mortality with a point of inflection at - 0.3 mg/dL. Serum phosphate levels were positively and independently associated with 28-day mortality in septic shock. Delta serum phosphate level was a high-risk factor for patients with septic shock.

The Impact of Cardiac Index on Mortality in Patients with Septic Shock: A retrospective study from the MIMIC-IV Database.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2896191/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Background Septic shock is a life-threatening condition that can lead to organ dysfunction and death. In the ICU, monitoring of cardiac index (CI) is commonly used to guide management and predict outcomes in septic shock patients. However, there is a lack of research on the association between CI and the risk of mortality in this patient population. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between different levels of CI and mortality in septic shock patients. Methods Data analysis was obtained from the MIMIC-IV version 2.0 database. Sepsis and septic shock were primarily defined by sepsis-3, the third international consensus on sepsis and septic shock. CI was computed using cardiac output (CO) and body surface area (BSA). To evaluate the incidence of CI with respect to each endpoint (7-, 14-, 21-, and 28-day mortality), a restricted cubic spline curve function (RCS) was used. Analyses of KM curves, cox regression, and logistic regression were conducted separately to determine the relationship between various CI and 28-day mortality. Results This study included 1498 patients with septic shock. A U-shaped relationship between CI levels and risk of mortality in septic shock was found by RCS analysis (p < 0.001). CI levels in the range of 1.85–2.8 L/min/m2 were associated with a mortality hazard ratio (HR) < 1. In contrast, low CI and high CI levels had a significantly increased risk of mortality. According to the characteristics of CI, patients were divided into three groups low CI group (CI < 1.85 L/min/m2,n = 150), CI normal group (CI:1.85–2.80 L/min/m2, n = 904), and the high group(CI > 2.80 L/min/m2,n = 444). The KM curves, COX regression, and logistic regression analysis showed that the survival rate the of CI normal group was higher than the other groups. The risk factors of the low CI group, and high CI with ICU 28-day mortality were HR = 1.87 (95% CI: 1.01–3.49), and HR = 1.93 (95% CI: 1.26–2.97), respectively. Conclusion This study found that a cardiac index (CI) of 1.85–2.80 L/min/m2 was associated with the lowest risk of mortality in patients with septic shock. CIs that were lower or higher than this range were associated with an increased risk of mortality.

Elevated Initial Serum Phosphate Levels Predict Higher Mortality and Impaired Neurological Outcome in Cardiac Arrest Patients with Return of Spontaneous Circulation

Purpose: Although a moderate proportion of cardiac arrest (CA) patients achieve a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), few survive to discharge, mostly with poor neurological development. As serum phosphate levels were described as elevated after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), we asked whether these elevations would predict a higher risk of mortality and impaired neurological outcome in CA patients following ROSC. Methods: Initial serum phosphate levels, survival, and neurologic status at discharge of 488 non-traumatic CA patients treated at a single German hospital after achieving ROSC were analyzed. The cut-off value of phosphate for mortality prediction was determined using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, and patients were divided accordingly for comparison. Results were validated by analyzing phosphate levels in a multi-centric cohort containing 3299 CA patients from the eICU database of the United States. Results: In the German cohort, ROC analysis showed a 90% specificity for phosphate levels >2.7 mmol/L to predict mortality (AUC: 0.76, p < 0.0001), and phosphate level elevations were associated with higher in-hospital mortality (crude odds ratio 3.04, 95% CI 2.32 to 4.08). Patients with initial phosphate levels >2.7 mmol/L had significantly higher mortality in both analyzed collectives (p < 0.0001). Similarly, patients from the German cohort who initially had higher phosphate levels also showed a higher proportion of impaired neurological status at discharge and morphological signs of brain injury. Conclusions: In CA patients following ROSC, initial serum phosphate levels >2.7 mmol/L predict higher mortality and impaired neurological outcome. Our data suggests that phosphate determination might improve the preciseness of the overall and neurologic prognostication in patients after CPR following ROSC.