Application of the screening method to monitor influenza vaccine effectiveness among the elderly in Germany

Application of the screening method for estimating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness using routine surveillance data: Germany's experience during the COVID-19 pandemic, July 2021 to March 2023

The screening method represents a simple, quick, and practical tool for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) using routine disease surveillance and vaccine coverage data, even if these data cannot be linked. In Germany, where notification data, laboratory testing data, and vaccine coverage data cannot be linked due to strict data protection requirements, the screening method was used to assess COVID-19 VE continuously between July 2021 and March 2023. During this period, when Delta and Omicron variants circulated, VE estimates were produced in real-time for different age groups and clinical outcomes. Here we describe the country's overall positive experience using the screening method, including its strengths and limitations, and provide practical guidance regarding a few issues, such as case definition stringency, testing behaviour, and data stratification, that require careful consideration during data analysis and the interpretation of the results.

[Once vaccinated, always vaccinated? A claims data analysis on repeated influenza vaccinations among individuals aged ≥ 60 years]

BACKGROUND

The Standing Committee on Vaccination recommends the seasonal influenza vaccination as a standard vaccination for individuals aged ≥ 60 years and as an indication vaccination independent of age. Empirical data on repeated vaccination are not available for Germany. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate the frequency and influencing factors of repeated vaccinations.

METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal retrospective observational study with claims data from ≥ 60‑year-olds insured with the statutory health insurance AOK Plus in Thuringia between 2012 and 2018. The number of seasons with influenza vaccination was described and the association with various individual characteristics was analysed in a regression model.

RESULTS

Included were 103,163 individuals with at least one influenza vaccination in the 2014/2015 season, of whom 75.3% had been vaccinated in ≥ 6 of 7 seasons. We found repeated vaccinations more frequently among nursing home residents (rate ratio (RR) 1.27), individuals with increased health risk due to underlying diseases (RR 1.21) and higher age groups (vs. 60-69 years: RR 1.17-1.25). With each additional year of participating in a disease management program, the number of vaccinations increased (RR 1.03). Women (RR 0.91), individuals with nursing care level 1 (vs. no nursing care level: RR 0.90) and people with a comorbidity (vs. no comorbidity: RR 0.97) were less likely to receive repeated vaccinations.

DISCUSSION

A large proportion of individuals aged ≥ 60 years who have been vaccinated against influenza once is likely to repeatedly receive vaccinations. In accordance with vaccination recommendations, nursing home residents and in particular individuals with an increased health risk are vaccinated repeatedly. General practitioners play a central role: non-acute patient contacts should be used to offer vaccinations, especially to women and individuals in need of care who are living at home.

Effectiveness of Japanese encephalitis vaccination among children in central India

Japanese encephalitis (JE) disease among children continues in central India despite vaccination implemented in the routine immunization program. Therefore, we planned to estimate the JE vaccination effectiveness among children by undertaking a 1:2 individually-matched population-based case-control study from August 2018 to October 2020. The laboratory-confirmed JE cases aged 1-15 years were enrolled along with neighborhood controls without fever and encephalitis matched on the residence area, age and sex. The JE vaccination history was enquired from parents and verified independently from the vaccination cards available at home and records at health facilities. We enrolled 35 JE cases and 70 matched controls. The vaccination effectiveness of 86.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 30.8-94.7) was estimated on the per-protocol analysis of 31 case-control sets. The screening method provided an effectiveness of 89.5% (CI: 78.9-94.7) on using the population vaccination coverage of 90% reported earlier in the same area. In conclusion, JE vaccination offered a moderate level of protection among children in JE medium-endemic central India, similar to reports from high-endemic areas in India. The operational aspects of vaccination program implementation need to be evaluated to assess the impact of vaccination on the disease burden of JE in medium-endemic regions of India.

Enhanced Vaccine Effectiveness during the Delta Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Medicare Population Supports a Multilayered Prevention Approach

Throughout the pandemic, individuals 65 years and older have contributed most COVID-19 related deaths. To best formulate effective vaccination and other prevention policies to protect older adults, large scale observational studies of these higher risk individuals are needed. We conducted a Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) study during the B.1.617.2 Delta variant phase of the pandemic in July and August 2021 in a cohort of 17 million Medicare beneficiaries of which 5.7 million were fully vaccinated. We found that individuals fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccines in January 2021 had 2.5 times higher breakthrough infections and hospitalizations than those fully vaccinated in March 2021, consistent with waning of vaccine-induced immunity. Measuring VE weekly, we found that VE against hospitalization, and even more so against infection, increased from July 2021 through August 2021, suggesting that in addition to the protective role of vaccination, increased masking or social distancing might have contributed to the unexpected increase in VE. Ongoing monitoring of Medicare beneficiaries should be a priority as new variants continue to emerge, and the VE of the new bivalent vaccines remains to be established. This could be accomplished with a large Medicare claims database and the analytics platform used for this study.

PICK-ing Malaysia's Epidemic Apart: Effectiveness of a Diverse COVID-19 Vaccine Portfolio

Malaysia rolled out a diverse portfolio of predominantly three COVID-19 vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) beginning 24 February 2021. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness with two methods, covering 1 April to 15 September 2021: (1) the screening method for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic COVID-19; and (2) a retrospective cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases for COVID-19 related ICU admission and death using logistic regression. The screening method estimated partial vaccination to be 48.8% effective (95% CI: 46.8, 50.7) against COVID-19 infection and 33.5% effective (95% CI: 31.6, 35.5) against symptomatic COVID-19. Full vaccination is estimated at 87.8% effective (95% CI: 85.8, 89.7) against COVID-19 infection and 85.4% effective (95% CI: 83.4, 87.3) against symptomatic COVID-19. Among the cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases, partial vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 31.3% effective (95% CI: 28.5, 34.1) in preventing ICU admission, and 45.1% effective (95% CI: 42.6, 47.5) in preventing death. Full vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 79.1% effective (95% CI: 77.7, 80.4) in preventing ICU admission and 86.7% effective (95% CI: 85.7, 87.6) in preventing deaths. Our findings suggest that full vaccination with any of the three predominant vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) in Malaysia has been highly effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, COVID-19-related ICU admission, and death.

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in elderly long-term care facility residents, Spain, weeks 53 2020 to 13 2021

Residents in long-term care facilities (LTCF) experienced a large morbidity and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain and were prioritised for early COVID-19 vaccination. We used the screening method and population-based data sources to obtain estimates of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness for elderly LTCF residents. The estimates were 71% (95% CI: 56-82%), 88% (95% CI: 75-95%), and 97% (95% CI: 92-99%), against SARS-CoV-2 infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic), and COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths, respectively.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination during pregnancy to prevent severe infection in children under 6 months of age, Spain, 2017-2019

INTRODUCTION

Influenza vaccination is recommended to pregnant women in Spain to reduce the risk of influenza-related complications. Influenza related hospitalizations pose a significant disease burden in children every year. Although children below 6 months are too young to be vaccinated, they can receive protection against influenza through vaccination of their mothers during pregnancy. We estimated the effectiveness of maternal influenza vaccination to prevent influenza hospitalizations in infants under 6 months of age.

METHODS

This is a retrospective pilot study, using data from the Severe Hospitalized Confirmed Influenza Cases (SHCIC) surveillance system in seasons 2017/18 and 2018/19 in Spain. Maternal vaccination status during pregnancy was collected for cases in children 6 months and younger hospitalized with confirmed influenza infection. Influenza vaccine effectiveness was estimated using the screening method, by comparing the proportion of children with vaccinated mothers during pregnancy (proportion of cases vaccinated, PCV), with the vaccination coverage among pregnant women in Spain (proportion of population vaccinated, PPV).

RESULTS

For all the study period, the PCV was 17% and the PPV was 35%. Influenza vaccination in mothers during pregnancy prevented influenza confirmed hospitalizations in infants aged 6 months and younger with a 61% (95%CI: 27-79%) effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

In line with evidence from other countries, influenza vaccination during pregnancy protects infants up to 6 months of age from influenza hospitalizations in Spain. These results support current recommendations of influenza vaccination in pregnant women, and more studies are needed in Spain to confirm the double protection of maternal vaccination in mothers and infants.

Challenges in estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness

Introduction: Influenza vaccination is regarded as the most effective way to prevent influenza infection. Due to the rapid genetic changes that influenza viruses undergo, seasonal influenza vaccines must be reformulated and re-administered annually necessitating the evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year. The estimation of influenza VE presents numerous challenges. Areas Covered: This review aims to identify, discuss, and, where possible, offer suggestions for dealing with the following challenges in estimating influenza VE: different outcomes of interest against which VE is estimated, study designs used to assess VE, sources of bias and confounding, repeat vaccination, waning immunity, population level effects of vaccination, and VE in at-risk populations. Expert Opinion: The estimation of influenza VE has improved with surveillance networks, better understanding of sources of bias and confounding, and the implementation of advanced statistical methods. Future research should focus on better estimates of the indirect effects of vaccination, the biological effects of vaccination, and how vaccines interact with the immune system. Specifically, little is known about how influenza vaccination impacts an individual's infectiousness, how vaccines wane over time, and the impact of repeated vaccination.

[Compliance with adult measles and pertussis vaccination recommendations : Analysis of data from the national monitoring system KV-Impfsurveillance]

The Standing Committee on Vaccination recommends adult measles and pertussis vaccination. The measles vaccine has been recommended since 2010 to adults born after 1970 with less than two doses in childhood, and an acellular pertussis vaccine (ap) since 2009 to be administered to all adults, with the next recommended decennial tetanus (T) and diphtheria (d) booster as a Tdap combination vaccine.We aim to determine the annual uptake of the measles vaccine (vaccination incidence) and its proportion in pediatric and gynecological practices as interdisciplinary services (2009-2016). We further aim to calculate the 10-year ap vaccination coverage and missed vaccination opportunities as the proportion vaccinated with Td only among all Td and Tdap vaccinees (2007-2016).Within the national vaccination monitoring system KV-Impfsurveillance of the Robert Koch Institute and all Associations of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians, all persons receiving the relevant vaccinations were identified in nationwide statutory health insurance claims and related to the numbers of insured persons.The measles vaccination incidence in 2009 was 0.4%, increasing to ≥1.0% annually since 2013. It was higher in western than eastern federal states and higher among women than men. Of all measles vaccinations, 6.8% were given by pediatricians. Men received 2.6% of their vaccinations by gynecologists. The ap vaccination coverage was 32.4%. The proportion of exclusively Td vaccinated adults fell from 84% (2007) to 24% (from 2013 onwards).Since their recommendation, the KV-Impfsurveillance system shows increased uptake of measles and pertussis vaccines with regional and sex differences and is thus instrumental in their evaluation. Analyses of interdisciplinary vaccinations and missed vaccination opportunities provide insight into the potential for increasing uptake.

The effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisations of elderly individuals in two influenza seasons: a multicentre case-control study, Spain, 2013/14 and 2014/15

Influenza vaccination may limit the impact of influenza in the community. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisation in individuals aged ≥ 65 years in Spain. A multicentre case–control study was conducted in 20 Spanish hospitals during 2013/14 and 2014/15. Patients aged ≥ 65 years who were hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed influenza were matched with controls according to sex, age and date of hospitalisation. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated by multivariate conditional logistic regression. A total of 728 cases and 1,826 matched controls were included in the study. Overall VE was 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 22–47). VE was 51% (95% CI: 15–71) in patients without high-risk medical conditions and 30% (95% CI: 14–44) in patients with them. VE was 39% (95% CI: 20–53) in patients aged 65–79 years and 34% (95% CI: 11–51) in patients aged ≥ 80 years, and was greater against the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype than the A(H3N2) subtype. Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing hospitalisations of elderly individuals.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing severe influenza illness among adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of test-negative design case-control studies

OBJECTIVES

Summary evidence of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against hospitalized influenza is lacking. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting IVE against laboratory-confirmed hospitalized influenza among adults.

METHODS

We searched Pubmed (January 2009 to November 2016) for studies that used test-negative design (TND) to enrol patients hospitalized with influenza-associated conditions. Two independent authors selected relevant articles. We calculated pooled IVE against any and (sub)type specific influenza among all adults, and stratified by age group (18-64 and 65 years and above) using random-effects models.

RESULTS

We identified 3411 publications and 30 met our inclusion criteria. Between 2010-11 and 2014-15, the pooled seasonal IVE was 41% (95%CI:34;48) for any influenza (51% (95%CI:44;58) among people aged 18-64y and 37% (95%CI:30;44) among ≥65 years). IVE was 48% (95%CI:37;59),37% (95%CI:24;50) and 38% (95%CI:23;53) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively. Among persons aged ≥65 year, IVE against A(H3N2) was 43% (95%CI:33;53) in seasons when circulating and vaccine strains were antigenically similar and 14% (95%CI:-3;30) when A(H3N2) variant viruses predominated.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines provided moderate protection against influenza-associated hospitalizations among adults. They seemed to provide low protection among elderly in seasons where vaccine and circulating A(H3N2) strains were antigenically variant.

Impact of Aging and Cytomegalovirus on Immunological Response to Influenza Vaccination and Infection

The number of people over the age of 60 is expected to double by 2050 according to the WHO. This emphasizes the need to ensure optimized resilience to health stressors in late life. In older adults, influenza is one of the leading causes of catastrophic disability (defined as the loss of independence in daily living and self-care activities). Influenza vaccination is generally perceived to be less protective in older adults, with some studies suggesting that the humoral immune response to the vaccine is further impaired in cytomegalovirus (CMV)-seropositive older people. CMV is a β-herpes virus infection that is generally asymptomatic in healthy individuals. The majority of older adults possess serum antibodies against the virus indicating latent infection. Age-related changes in T-cell-mediated immunity are augmented by CMV infection and may be associated with more serious complications of influenza infection. This review focuses on the impact of aging and CMV on immune cell function, the response to influenza infection and vaccination, and how the current understanding of aging and CMV can be used to design a more effective influenza vaccine for older adults. It is anticipated that efforts in this field will address the public health need for improved protection against influenza in older adults, particularly with regard to the serious complications leading to loss of independence.

Long-Term Correlation between Influenza Vaccination Coverage and Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness in 14 European Countries

We aimed to examine the long-term correlation between influenza vaccination coverage and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the total and elderly populations of European countries for which data was available on at least six consecutive influenza seasons. We graphically visualised vaccination coverage and ILI incidence trends and calculated Spearman rank correlation coefficients. Additionally, we fitted a negative binomial regression model to estimate the change in ILI incidence per percentage point change in vaccination coverage. We found significant negative correlations for the total population of the Netherlands (ρ = -0.60, p-value = 0.003) and for the elderly populations of England (ρ = -0.80, p-value < 0.001) and Germany (ρ = -0.57, p-value = 0.04). However, results were not consistent, and for some countries we observed significant positive correlations. Only for the elderly in England was there a significant decline in incidence rate per percentage point increase in vaccination coverage (incidence rate ratio = 0.93; 95% confidence interval 0.88–0.99). Based on this ecological study it is not possible to provide evidence for a negative correlation between influenza vaccination coverage and ILI incidence. For future, aetiological studies to assess impact of influenza vaccinations on the population, there is a need for high quality data over long periods of time, on proportion of ILI caused by influenza virus infection, on severe outcome measures such as hospitalisation for influenza, and on other factors that potentially affect influenza transmission.

Early estimates of 2014/15 seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing influenza-like illness in general practice using the screening method in France

The ongoing influenza epidemic is characterized by intense activity with most influenza infections due to the A (H3N2) viruses. Using the screening method, mid-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing influenza-like illness in primary care was estimated to 32% (95% CI; 23 to 40) among risk groups and was 11% (95% CI; -4 to 23) among the elderly (≥ 65 y). The VE in ≥ 65 y was the lowest estimate regarding the 4 previous seasonal influenza epidemics.

Phylogenetic analysis of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses isolated in 2015 in Germany indicates significant genetic divergence from vaccine strains

Infections by H3N2-type influenza A viruses (IAV) resulted in significant numbers of hospitalization in several countries in 2014-2015, causing disease also in vaccinated individuals and, in some cases, fatal outcomes. In this study, sequence analysis of H3N2 viruses isolated in Germany from 1998 to 2015, including eleven H3N2 isolates collected early in 2015, was performed. Compared to the vaccine strain A/Texas/50/2012 (H3N2), the 2015 strains from Germany showed up to 4.5 % sequence diversity in their HA1 protein, indicating substantial genetic drift. The data further suggest that two distinct phylogroups, 3C.2 and 3C.3, with 1.6-2.3 % and 0.3-2.4 % HA1 nucleotide and amino acid sequence diversity, respectively, co-circulated in Germany in the 2014/2015 season. Distinct glycosylation patterns and amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins were identified, possibly contributing to the unusually high number of H3N2 infections in this season and providing important information for developing vaccines that are effective against both genotypes.