Evaluation of creatine kinase and liver enzymes in identification of severe dengue

Diabetes mellitus as a risk factor for severe dengue fever and West Nile fever: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever (DF) and West Nile fever (WNF) have become endemic worldwide in the last two decades. Studies suggest that individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM) are at a higher risk of developing severe complications from these diseases. Identifying the factors associated with a severe clinical presentation is crucial, as prompt treatment is essential to prevent complications and fatalities. This article aims to summarize and assess the published evidence regarding the link between DM and the risk of severe clinical manifestations in cases of DF and WNF.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A systematic search was conducted using the PubMed and Web of Science databases. 27 studies (19 on DF, 8 on WNF) involving 342,873 laboratory-confirmed patients were included in the analysis. The analysis showed that a diagnosis of DM was associated with an increased risk for severe clinical presentations of both DF (OR 3.39; 95% CI: 2.46, 4.68) and WNF (OR 2.89; 95% CI: 1.89, 4.41). DM also significantly increased the risk of death from both diseases (DF: OR 1.95; 95% CI: 1.09, 3.52; WNF: OR 1.74; 95% CI: 1.40, 2.17).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study provides strong evidence supporting the association between DM and an increased risk of severe clinical manifestations in cases of DF and WNF. Diabetic individuals in DF or WNF endemic areas should be closely monitored when presenting with febrile symptoms due to their higher susceptibility to severe disease. Early detection and appropriate management strategies are crucial in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates associated with DF and WNF in diabetic patients. Tailored care and targeted public health interventions are needed to address this at-risk population. Further research is required to understand the underlying mechanisms and develop effective preventive and therapeutic approaches.

Severe dengue in the intensive care unit

Dengue fever is considered the most prolific vector-borne disease in the world, with its transmission rate increasing more than eight times in the last two decades. While most cases present mild to moderate symptoms, 5% of patients can develop severe disease. Although the mechanisms are yet not fully comprehended, immune-mediated activation leading to excessive cytokine expression is suggested as a cause of the two main findings in critical patients: increased vascular permeability that may shock and thrombocytopenia, and coagulopathy that can induce hemorrhage. The risk factors of severe disease include previous infection by a different serotype, specific genotypes associated with more efficient replication, certain genetic polymorphisms, and comorbidities such as diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends careful monitoring and prompt hospitalization of patients with warning signs or propensity for severe disease to reduce mortality. This review aims to update the diagnosis and management of patients with severe dengue in the intensive care unit.

Liver Impairment and Elevated Aminotransferase Levels Predict Severe Dengue in Vietnamese Children

BACKGROUND

The degree of liver impairment in children with dengue infection varies from mild to severe injury. Aminotransferase levels may be useful in predicting severe dengue. This study aimed to evaluate the degree of liver impairment and determine whether elevated aminotransferases could be used to discriminate between non-severe and severe dengue in Vietnamese children.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of pediatric patients with confirmed dengue infection who were admitted to Can Tho Children's Hospital, Vietnam. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to discriminate the power of Aspartate transaminase (AST) or Alanine transaminase (ALT) to predict severe dengue.

RESULTS

Two hundred and thirty confirmed dengue patients were enrolled, including 70% (161) patients with non-severe dengue and 30% (69) with severe dengue. This study indicates that 73.9% of patients had abnormal AST (＞40 U/L), and 34.8% of patients had abnormal ALT (＞40 U/L). The incidence of dengue patients with hepatitis (AST or ALT ≥ 4×ULN) and severe hepatitis (AST or ALT ≥ 10×ULN) were 18.7% and 17.0%, respectively. At a cut-off point of 120 U/L, AST's AUROC, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96), 82.5%, and 87.3%, respectively. At a cut-off point of 80 U/L, ALT's AUROC, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0,93), 87.5%, and 85.2%, respectively, for predicting severe dengue.

CONCLUSION

Elevated aminotransferase levels were associated with severe dengue, and AST/ALT were good markers for predicting severe dengue in Vietnamese children.

Routine blood parameters of dengue infected children and adults. A meta-analysis

The World Health Organization (WHO) has revised dengue case classification in 2009 to better reflect the severity of the disease. However, there was no comprehensive meta-analysis of pooled routine blood parameters according to the age or the categories of the 2009 WHO classification. This study aimed to meta-analyze the routine blood parameters of dengue infected children and adults. Electronic search was performed with eligible articles included for review. Meta-analysis was conducted for six blood parameters stratified into children, adults and all ages, which were further grouped into the three 2009 WHO case classifications (dengue without warning signs, DwoWS; dengue with warning signs, DwWS; severe dengue, SD), non-severe dengue (non-SD) and 'All' cases. A total of 55 articles were included in the meta-analysis. Fifteen studies were conducted in the children's age category, 31 studies in the adult category and nine studies in all ages. The four selected pooled blood parameters for children were white blood cell (WBC) (×103/L) with 5.11 (SD), 5.64 (DwWS), 5.52 (DwoWS) and 4.68 (Non-SD) hematocrit (HCT) (%) with 36.78 (SD), 40.70 (DwWS), 35.00 (DwoWS) and 29.78 (Non-SD) platelet (PLT) (×103/µL) with 78.66 (SD), 108.01 (DwWS), 153.47 (DwoWS) and 108.29 (non-SD); and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (/µL) with 248.88 (SD), 170.83 (DwWS), 83.24 (DwoWS) and 102.99 (non-SD). For adult, WBC were 4.96 (SD), 6.44 (DwWS), 7.74 (DwoWS) and 3.61 (non-SD); HCT were 39.50 (SD), 39.00 (DwWS), 37.45 (DwoWS) and 41.68 (non-SD); PLT were 49.62 (SD), 96.60 (DwWS), 114.37 (DwoWS) and 71.13 (non-SD); and AST were 399.50 (SD), 141.01 (DwWS), 96.19 (DwoWS) and 118.13 (non-SD). These blood parameters could not differentiate between each dengue severity according to the WHO 2009 classification, SD, DwoWS, DwWS and non-SD, because the timing of blood drawing was not known and there was an overlapping confidence interval among the clinical classification. Hence, these pooled blood parameter values could not be used to guide clinicians in management and did not correlate with severity as in previous scientific literatures and guidelines.

Aminotransferases in Relation to the Severity of Dengue: A Systematic Review

A systematic review was conducted to investigate the relationship between aminotransferases and the severity of dengue infection, which is a prevalent and significant infection in tropical and subtropical regions. Aminotransferases are enzymes that are often elevated in dengue due to the liver's physiological and immunological response to the infection. This review focused on analyzing various studies that examined the correlation between aminotransferase levels and the severity of dengue. Extensive literature searches were performed using ("dengue*" OR "dengue fever*" OR "dengue haemorrhagic fever*" OR "dengue shock syndrome*") AND ("alanine aminotransferase*" OR "aspartate aminotransferase*") on PubMed. The selected articles were thoroughly reviewed, encompassing epidemiology, pathogenesis, and clinical manifestations of dengue. The consistent findings across the studies indicated that aminotransferases can serve as predictive markers for dengue severity. Therefore, early assessment of liver enzyme levels is crucial in dengue cases, and elevated levels should be closely monitored to prevent adverse outcomes.

An Elaboration on Sample Size Planning for Performing a One-Sample Sensitivity and Specificity Analysis by Basing on Calculations on a Specified 95% Confidence Interval Width

Sample size calculation based on a specified width of 95% confidence interval will offer researchers the freedom to set the level of accuracy of the statistics that they aim to achieve for a particular study. This paper provides a description of the general conceptual context for performing sensitivity and specificity analysis. Subsequently, sample size tables for sensitivity and specificity analysis based on a specified 95% confidence interval width is then provided. Such recommendations for sample size planning are provided based on two different scenarios: one for a diagnostic purpose and another for a screening purpose. Further discussion on all the other relevant considerations for the determination of a minimum sample size requirement and on how to draft the sample size statement for performing sensitivity and specificity analysis are also provided.

Vitamin D Deficiency (VDD) and Susceptibility towards Severe Dengue Fever-A Prospective Cross-Sectional Study of Hospitalized Dengue Fever Patients from Lahore, Pakistan

Dengue is a mosquito-borne flaviviral serious febrile illness, most common in the tropical and subtropical regions including Pakistan. Vitamin D is a strong immunomodulator affecting both the innate and adaptive immune responses and plays a pivotal role in pathogen-defense mechanisms. There has been considerable interest in the possible role of vitamin D in dengue viral (DENV) infection. In the present prospective cross-sectional study, we assessed a possible association between serum vitamin D deficiency (VDD) and susceptibility towards severe dengue fever (DF) illness. Serum vitamin D levels were measured at the time of hospitalization in 97 patients diagnosed with dengue fever (DF), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS) at Mayo Hospital, King Edward Medical University, Lahore, PK, from 16 November 2021 to 15 January 2022. In terms of disease severity, 37 (38.1%) patients were DF, 52 (53.6%) were DHF grade 1 and 2, and 8 (8.2%) were DSS. The results revealed that most patients (75 (77.3%)) were vitamin-D-deficient (i.e., serum level < 20 ng/mL), including 27 (73.0%) in DF, 41 (78.8%) in DHF grade 1 and 2, and 7 (87.5%) in DSS. The degree of VDD was somewhat higher in DSS patients as compared to DF and DHF grade 1 and 2 patients. Overall, serum vitamin D levels ranged from 4.2 to 109.7 ng/mL, and the median (IQR) was in the VDD range, i.e., 12.2 (9.1, 17.8) ng/mL. Our results suggest that there may be a possible association between VDD and susceptibility towards severe dengue illness. Hence, maintaining sufficient vitamin D levels in the body either through diet or supplementation may help provide adequate immune protection against severe dengue fever illness. Further research is warranted.

Clinical and prognostic relevance of sST2 in adults with dengue-associated cardiac impairment and severe dengue

BACKGROUND

Dengue can be complicated by severe outcomes including cardiac impairment, and the lack of reliable prognostic biomarkers poses a challenge in managing febrile dengue patients. Here, we investigated the functionality of soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity (sST2) as a predictive marker of severe dengue and its association in dengue-associated cardiac impairment.

METHODS

Plasma samples, aged >16 years, collected from 36 dengue fever, 43 dengue with warning signs, 11 severe dengue (collected at febrile, critical and recovery phases) and 30 controls were assayed for plasma levels of sST2, troponin T and N-terminal (NT)-pro hormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) by ELISA. Cardiac parameters: stroke index (SI), cardiac index (CI) and Granov-Goor Index (GGI) were measured with a bioimpedance device during the different phases for dengue subjects and once for the controls.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In the febrile, critical and early recovery phases, sST2 levels were significantly elevated in dengue participants and sST2 levels increased with increasing disease severity (P < 0.01 for all). sST2 concentrations were negatively correlated with SI (r = -0.48; P < 0.001, r = -0.55; P < 0.001), CI (r = -0.26; P = 0.02, r = -0.6: P < 0.001) and GGI (r = -0.44; P < 0.001, r = -0.57; P < 0.001) in the critical and early recovery phases. In contrast, sST2 levels in the febrile and critical phases, were positive correlated to troponin T (r = 0.44, P < 0.001; r = 0.22, P = 0.03, respectively) and NT-proBNP (r = 0.21, P = 0.03; r = 0.35, P < 0.001). ROC analysis demonstrated sST2 as a good biomarker of severe dengue in the critical phase, AUROC 0.79, P < 0.001.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

sST2 levels were elevated in patients with dengue especially in cases of severe dengue. Furthermore, increased sST2 levels were associated with cardiac indicators suggesting lower cardiac performance. While further research is needed to demonstrate its clinical utility, sST2 may be a useful prognostic biomarker of severe dengue.

A double whammy: The association between comorbidities and severe dengue among adult patients—A matched case-control study

Background

Dengue infection is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral infection globally. Concurrently, there has also been an upsurge of non-communicable comorbidities. We aimed to investigate the association between these comorbidities and the development of severe dengue.

Methods

We performed a retrospective, case-control study involving 117 cases with severe dengue and 351 controls with non-severe dengue; matched according to gender, age (+/- 5 years old), and admission date (+/- 2 weeks). We analyzed the data using conditional odds ratio (cOR) and adjusted conditional odds ratio (AcOR) using univariate and multivariable conditional logistic regression respectively.

Results

Six main comorbidities namely obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, chronic pulmonary disease, and ischemic heart disease were observed among cases and controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression model found only hypertension to be independently associated with the development of severe dengue (ACOR 2.46; 95% CI:1.09–5.53). Among symptoms at presentation, lethargy, vomiting, bleeding manifestations, and abdominal pain were associated with increased odds of severe dengue, although the associations were not statistically significant. Headache (ACOR: 0:32; 95% CI: 0.21–0.51) and skin rash (ACOR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.22–0.81) were associated with significantly lower odds of severe dengue. Severe dengue patients were also found to have significantly higher white cell count, urea, creatinine, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, creatine kinase, and lactate dehydrogenase on admission, while platelet and albumin were significantly lower compared to non-severe dengue patients.

Conclusions

Our study found a significant association between hypertension and the development of severe dengue in adult patients. For clinical practice, this finding suggests that dengue patients with underlying hypertension warrant closer clinical monitoring for deterioration. The association between significant derangement in various laboratory parameters and severe dengue as shown in this study is in keeping with previous reports. While further substantiation by larger prospective studies will be desirable, this association may serve to inform the dengue triaging process.

Severity and Outcomes of Dengue in Hospitalized Jamaican Children in 2018-2019 During an Epidemic Surge in the Americas

Objective

In 2019, dengue was among the "top-ten threats to global health," with 3.1 million cases reported from the Americas, the highest ever. Simultaneously, Jamaica reported its largest dengue outbreak in 40 years, following Chikungunya and Zika virus epidemics, in 2014 and 2016-2017, respectively. We describe dengue in children admitted to five hospitals in Jamaica during August 2018 through September 2019.

Methods

Hospitalized children and adolescents aged 0 to 15 years with dengue were managed using PAHO/WHO criteria. Data were extracted from questionnaires, entered into a dataset on Microsoft Excel version 2016, exported to SPSS version 20 and analyzed. Groups were compared using Student's t-test for normally distributed parametric data. Chi-square analysis, or Fisher's exact test was used for categorical variables. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

There were 339 children, 245 (72.3%) aged 1-10 years, males:females 1:1. Classification was "dengue without warning signs" 53 (15.3%), "dengue with warning signs" 218 (64.3%) and "severe dengue" 68 (20%). Co-morbidities were reported in 88 (26%). Hemoglobin SC disease was associated with severe dengue with hemorrhage (p = 0.005). Organ-system involvement occurred in 334 (98.5%) including gastrointestinal 317 (93.5%), hematologic 311 (91.7%) and musculoskeletal 180 (53.1%). Thirty-nine (11.5%) had 5-7 organ-systems involved. Metabolomics emphasized increased hepatic transaminases 245 (72.3%), lactate dehydrogenase 164 (48.4%) and creatine phosphokinase 84 (24.8%) approaching the high thousands (121,560 u/L), both were markers for severe disease (p < 0.002). Thirteen (3.8%) received intensive care. Dengue was laboratory-confirmed in 220 (78.9%): NS1 antigen-positive (218); RT-PCR-positive (23), with an overlap of NS1 antigen and RT-PCR positive (21); DENV-3 serotype (20). Seventeen (5%) died, 16 (94.1%) had severe dengue and 11 (64.7%) succumbed within 24 to 48 h of admission despite resuscitation and transfusion of blood products.

Conclusion

Severe dengue with increased attributable mortality occurred in hospitalized children after Jamaica's maiden Zika epidemic.

Prognostic indicators associated with progresses of severe dengue

Background

Dengue usually progress abnormally, especially in the critical phase. The main causes of death were shock, severe bleeding and organ failure. The aim of our study was to evaluate prognostic indicators of severe dengue according to the phases of the disease progression.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted from July to December 2017 at the National Hospital for Tropical Diseases and the Hospital for Tropical Diseases of Ho Chi Minh City. 326 patients, aged 6 years and over, including 99/326 patients with severe dengue and 227/326 patients with non-severe dengue, hospitalized in the first 3 days of illness, confirmed Dengue virus by the RT-PCR assay have been registered for the study. Clinical manifestations were monitored daily. The hematocrit, white blood cells, platelet, serum albumin, ALT, AST, bilirubin, prothrombin time (PT%, PTs), fibrinogen, aPTT, INR and creatinine were evaluated at two times: febrile phase and critical phase.

Results

Independent factors associated with severe dengue were identified on multivariate logistic regression models. During the first 3 days of the disease, the prognostic indicators were platelet count ≤ 100 G/L (OR = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.2–3.9), or serum albumin < 35 g/L (OR = 3.3; 95%CI: 1.8–6.1). From day 4–6, the indicator were AST > 400 U/L (OR = 3.0; 95%CI: 1.1–7.9), ALT > 400 U/L (OR = 6.6; 95%CI: 1.7–24.6), albumin < 35 g/L (OR = 3.0; 95%CI: 1.5–5.9), and bilirubin total >17 μmol/L (OR = 4.6; 95%CI: 2.0–10.4).

Conclusion

To predict the risk of patients with severe dengue, prognostic laboratory indicators should be indicated consistent with the progression of the disease. During the first 3 days of illness, prognostic indicators should be platelet count, or serum albumin. From the 4th - 6th day of illness, prognostic indicators should be AST, ALT, albumin, or bilirubin total.

Clinical predictors of severe dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Severe dengue is a life-threatening complication; rapid identification of these cases, followed by adequate management is crucial to improve the clinical prognosis. Therefore, this study aimed to identify risk factors and predictors of severe dengue.

Methods

A literature search for studies reporting risk factors of severe dengue among individuals with dengue virus infection was conducted in PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science database from inception to December 31, 2020. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) for patients’ demographic characteristics, co-morbidities, and warning signs were estimated using an inverse variance heterogeneity model.

Results

We included 143 articles in the meta-analysis from a total of 13 090 articles retrieved from the literature search. The risk factors of severe dengue were: being a child [OR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22–3.13], secondary infection (OR = 3.23; 95% CI: 2.28–4.57), and patients with pre-existing diabetes (OR = 2.88; 95% CI: 1.72–4.81) and renal disease (OR = 4.54; 95% CI: 1.55–13.31). Warning signs strongly associated with severe disease were increased haematocrit with a concurrent decrease in platelet count (OR = 5.13; 95% CI: 1.61–16.34), abdominal pain (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.49–2.68), lethargy (OR = 2.73; 95% CI: 1.05–7.10), vomiting (OR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.43–2.26), hepatomegaly (OR = 5.92; 95% CI: 3.29–10.66), ascites (OR = 6.30; 95% CI: 3.75–10.60), pleural effusion (OR = 5.72; 95% CI: 3.24–10.10) and melena (OR = 4.05; 95% CI: 1.64–10.00).

Conclusions

Our meta-analysis identified children, secondary infection, diabetes and renal disease(s) as important predictors of severe dengue. Our finding also supports the predictive ability of the WHO warning signs to identify severe dengue. These findings are useful for clinicians to identify severe dengue for management and timely interventions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00908-2.

Predictive markers for the early prognosis of dengue severity: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Predictive markers represent a solution for the proactive management of severe dengue. Despite the low mortality rate resulting from severe cases, dengue requires constant examination and round-the-clock nursing care due to the unpredictable progression of complications, posing a burden on clinical triage and material resources. Accordingly, identifying markers that allow for predicting disease prognosis from the initial diagnosis is needed. Given the improved pathogenesis understanding, myriad candidates have been proposed to be associated with severe dengue progression. Thus, we aim to review the relationship between the available biomarkers and severe dengue.

METHODOLOGY

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the differences in host data collected within 72 hours of fever onset amongst the different disease severity levels. We searched nine bibliographic databases without restrictive criteria of language and publication date. We assessed risk of bias and graded robustness of evidence using NHLBI quality assessments and GRADE, respectively. This study protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018104495).

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Of 4000 records found, 40 studies for qualitative synthesis, 19 for meta-analysis. We identified 108 host and viral markers collected within 72 hours of fever onset from 6160 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases, including hematopoietic parameters, biochemical substances, clinical symptoms, immune mediators, viral particles, and host genes. Overall, inconsistent case classifications explained substantial heterogeneity, and meta-analyses lacked statistical power. Still, moderate-certainty evidence indicated significantly lower platelet counts (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -0.97 to -0.32) and higher AST levels (SMD 0.87, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.38) in severe cases when compared to non-severe dengue during this time window.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that alterations of platelet count and AST level-in the first 72 hours of fever onset-are independent markers predicting the development of severe dengue.

Innate Immune Cytokine Profiling and Biomarker Identification for Outcome in Dengue Patients

Background

Early biomarkers of progression to severe dengue are urgently required to enable effective patient management and control treatment costs. Innate immune cells, which comprise the earliest responders to infection and along with the cytokines and chemokines they secrete, play a vital role in orchestrating the subsequent adaptive immune response and have been implicated in the enhancement of infection and “cytokine storm” associated with dengue severity. We investigated the early innate immune cytokine profile of dengue patients during acute phase of disease in a prospective blinded study that included subjects with acute dengue and febrile controls from four major hospitals in Bengaluru, India along with healthy controls. We used intracellular cytokine staining and flow cytometry to identify innate immune biomarkers that can predict progression to severe dengue.

Results

Dengue infection resulted in enhanced secretion of multiple cytokines by all queried innate immune cell subsets, dominated by TNF-α from CD56⁺CD3⁺ NKT cells, monocyte subsets, and granulocytes along with IFN-γ from CD56⁺CD3⁺ NKT cells. Of note, significantly higher proportions of TNF-α secreting granulocytes and monocyte subsets at admission were associated with mild dengue and minimal symptoms. Dengue NS1 antigenemia used as a surrogate of viral load directly correlated with proportion of cytokine-secreting innate immune cells and was significantly higher in those who went on to recover with minimal symptoms. In patients with secondary dengue or those with bleeding or elevated liver enzymes who revealed predisposition to severe outcomes, early activation as well as efficient downregulation of innate responses were compromised.

Conclusion

Our findings suggested that faulty/delayed kinetics of innate immune activation and downregulation was a driver of disease severity. We identified IFN-γ⁺CD56⁺CD3⁺ NKT cells and IL-6⁺ granulocytes at admission as novel early biomarkers that can predict the risk of progression to severity (composite AUC = 0.85–0.9). Strong correlations among multiple cytokine-secreting innate cell subsets revealed that coordinated early activation of the entire innate immune system in response to dengue virus infection contributed to resolution of infection and speedy recovery.

The polysaccharides from the Grifola frondosa fruiting body prevent lipopolysaccharide/d-galactosamine-induced acute liver injury via the miR-122-Nrf2/ARE pathways

The polysaccharides from Grifola frondosa fruiting body can be used as a potential hepatoprotective agent in the treatment of acute liver injury.

Correlation of Clinical Severity and Laboratory Parameters with Various Serotypes in Dengue Virus: A Hospital-Based Study

Objectives

Dengue fever, being hyperendemic with analogous presentations as in many other acute febrile illnesses, poses a challenge in diagnosis during the acute stage. Additionally, the coexistence of multiple serotypes further complicates the disease prognosis. The study was undertaken to determine the dengue virus serotypes, clinical, and laboratory markers as predictors in the severity of infection.

Methods

A prospective study was conducted among 106 patients admitted with acute febrile illness having positive NS1 antigen/IgM ELISA. Clinical data were extracted from medical records including demographics, presence of comorbid conditions, clinical presentation, laboratory investigations, and course including length of hospital stay and outcome. Detection of dengue serotypes was done by multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT_PCR).

Results

Out of 106 RT-PCR-confirmed cases, DENV-3 was the most common serotype found in 56 (52.8%) patients, followed by DENV-3 and DENV-4 coinfection in 27 (25.4%) patients. Coinfection with more than one serotype was witnessed in our study. Raised liver enzymes and increased ferritin are good biomarkers in differentiating dengue from severe dengue with cutoff levels for AST (134 U/L), ALT (88 U/L), and ferritin (3670 ng/ml). Musculoskeletal, followed by gastrointestinal, manifestations were comparatively higher than respiratory and cutaneous manifestations.

Conclusion

This study provides more information on the dengue serotypes. The clinical spectrum along with laboratory parameters such as ferritin, liver enzymes, platelet can be used as potential biomarkers in prediction of dengue severity. The data demonstrated will be useful in early detection and monitoring of the disease.

Combined score based on arterial lactate, aspartate transaminase and prolonged capillary refill time is a useful diagnostic criterion for identifying severe dengue

BACKGROUND

Taking into consideration, the variable performance of WHO's dengue case definition and the magnitude of epidemics in India, a score based on clinical and laboratory parameters is required for the early identification of severe dengue.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study of children (aged ≤12 y) presenting with dengue, defined as per the WHO 2009 classification and NS1 antigen/IgM ELISA positivity, was conducted at a tertiary care hospital from 2013 to 2015. Clinical laboratory parameters were compared between severe/non-severe dengue using univariate and multivariate analysis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were obtained for independent and composite markers.

RESULTS

Of 135 dengue patients, 46 (34.1%) had non-severe dengue and 89 (65.9%) had severe dengue. Logistic regression determined prolonged capillary refill time (CRT), lactate ≥2.9 mmol/L and serum aspartate transaminase (AST) ≥135 IU/L as predictive for severe dengue. AUROCs of lactate, AST and combined score incorporating AST, lactate and prolonged CRT for identifying severity were 7.55, 7.23 and 8.5, respectively. The combined score cut-off ≥1 had 87.6% sensitivity, 65.2% specificity, 83% PPV and 73.2% NPV. The combined score cut-off ≥3 had 100% specificity and 100% PPV.  However, AST >135 IU/L and lactate >2.9 mmol/L together had 97.8% specificity and 97.1% PPV for identifying severity.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of either 'prolonged capillary refill time with one deranged biochemical parameter' or 'both deranged biochemical parameters' is nearly 100% specific for severity of dengue.

Risk factors and biomarkers of severe dengue

Dengue virus infects several million people each year. Although usually a self-limiting disease, some patients can develop life-threatening severe complications, characterized by plasma leakage, hemorrhaging, and shock. The signs and symptoms of severe disease usually arise late in the disease course when patients are recovering and fever has subsided, making it difficult to predict. Efforts are underway to identify risk factors and biomarkers that can accurately predict disease severity in the acute febrile phase of the disease, facilitating early intervention and treatment strategies for those at greatest risk. In this review we discuss recent advancements in identifying risk factors and biomarkers for the prognosis of severe dengue.

Trajectories of hepatic and coagulation dysfunctions related to a rapidly fatal outcome among hospitalized patients with dengue fever in Tainan, 2015

Background

Hepatic dysfunction and coagulopathy are common in acute dengue illness. We analyzed the trajectories of the above parameters in the survivors and fatal patients in the outbreak in Tainan, 2015.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted using data from a tertiary hospital between January and December 2015. Multilevel modeling (MLM) was used to identify the changes in aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and platelet counts from Day 0 to Day 7 of the onset of dengue infection. The machine-learning algorithm was used by purity measure assumption to calculate the accuracy of serum transaminases and coagulation variables to discriminate between the fatal and survival groups.

Results

There were 4,069 dengue patients, of which 0.9% died in one week after illness onset (i.e., early mortality). Case fatality rate was the highest for those aged ≥70 years. Both AST and ALT values of the fatal group were significantly higher than those of the survivor group from Day 3 (AST median, 624 U/L vs. 60 U/L, p < 0.001; ALT median, 116 U/L vs. 29 U/L, p = 0.01) of illness onset and peaked on Day 6 (AST median, 9805 U/L vs. 90 U/L, p < 0.001; ALT median, 1504 U/L vs. 49 U/L, p < 0.001). AST ≥ 203 U/L, ALT ≥ 55 U/L, AST²/ALT criteria ≥337.35, or AST/platelet count ratio index (APRI) ≥ 19.18 on Day 3 of dengue infection had a high true positive rate, 90%, 78%, 100%, or 100%, respectively, of early mortality. The platelet counts of the fatal group declined significantly than those of the survivor group since Day 3 of illness onset (median, 19 x10³/μl vs. 91 x10³/μl, p < 0.01), and aPTT values of the fatal group significantly prolonged longer since Day 5 (median, 68.7 seconds vs. 40.1 seconds, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

AST, ALT, and platelet counts should be monitored closely from Day 0 to Day 3 of dengue infection, and aPTT be followed up on Day 5 of infection to identify the individuals at risk for early mortality.

Dengue fever (DF) is currently one of the most severe public health problems. Clinical presentations of dengue are diverse and non-specific, often with unpredictable clinical progression and outcome. Hepatic dysfunction and abnormal coagulation factors are common in acute dengue illness, reflected by abnormal alanine aminotransferase (AST), aspartate aminotransferase (ALT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and platelet counts. However, there is no information available about the monitoring frequency required, which could help identify those dengue patients who are likely to die, especially during epidemic outbreaks with limited healthcare resources. We examined all the laboratory-confirmed dengue patients who admitted to the major tertiary hospital in Tainan during the 2015 dengue outbreak, and the different trajectories of hepatic function and coagulation factors between survivors and rapidly fatal dengue patients were analyzed. Although there were no differences in AST, ALT, aPTT, and platelet counts between the survivor and fatal groups on the day DF symptoms first appeared, the differences increased from the early stages of infection and became more prominent during the early stages of the illness. The necessity of monitoring the AST, ALT, aPTT, and platelet count frequently during the febrile phase is emphasized by this study.

Simultaneous Coinfection of Macaques with Zika and Dengue Viruses Does not Enhance Acute Plasma Viremia but Leads to Activation of Monocyte Subsets and Biphasic Release of Pro-inflammatory Cytokines

The consequences of simultaneous infection with Zika (ZIKV) and Dengue (DENV) viruses are poorly understood. Here we show that rhesus macaques experimentally coinfected simultaneously with ZIKV and DENV-2 demonstrated ZIKV or DENV replication without an enhancement of either infection. Coinfection was accompanied by an increase in the proportions of CD14⁺CD16⁺ pro-inflammatory subsets of monocytes and release of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the plasma. Numerous cytokines such as I-TAC, Eotaxin, RANTES, MCP-1, IFNγ and MIG demonstrated a biphasic peak that coincided with the differences in kinetics of ZIKV and DENV replication suggesting that viral replication likely differentially modulated the release of these cytokines. Red blood cell indices significantly declined during acute infection suggesting transient anemia, and was accompanied by elevated levels of muscle, liver and renal injury markers. These findings have implications for understanding the pathogenesis of coinfection in ZIKV and DENV endemic regions, and is the 1^st report of an experimental coinfection using the rhesus macaque model for ZIKV and DENV infections.

The All-Cause Mortality and a Screening Tool to Determine High-Risk Patients among Prevalent Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

AIMS

This study aims to determine the all-cause mortality and the associated risk factors for all-cause mortality among the prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients within five years' period and to develop a screening tool to determine high-risk patients.

METHODS

This is a cohort study of T2DM patients in the national diabetes registry, Malaysia. Patients' particulars were derived from the database between 1st January 2009 and 31st December 2009. Their records were matched with the national death record at the end of year 2013 to determine the status after five years. The factors associated with mortality were investigated, and a prognostic model was developed based on logistic regression model.

RESULTS

There were 69,555 records analyzed. The mortality rate was 1.4 persons per 100 person-years. The major cause of death were diseases of the circulatory system (28.4%), infectious and parasitic diseases (19.7%), and respiratory system (16.0%). The risk factors of mortality within five years were age group (p < 0.001), body mass index category (p < 0.001), duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), retinopathy (p = 0.001), ischaemic heart disease (p < 0.001), cerebrovascular (p = 0.007), nephropathy (p = 0.001), and foot problem (p = 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the proposed model was fairly strong with 70.2% and 61.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The elderly and underweight T2DM patients with complications have higher risk for mortality within five years. The model has moderate accuracy; the prognostic model can be used as a screening tool to classify T2DM patients who are at higher risk for mortality within five years.