Efficacy of a bivalent killed whole-cell cholera vaccine over five years: a re-analysis of a cluster-randomized trial

Oral killed cholera vaccines for preventing cholera

BACKGROUND

Cholera causes acute watery diarrhoea and death if not properly treated. Outbreaks occur in areas with poor sanitation, including refugee camps. Several vaccines have been developed and tested over the last 50 years. This is an update of a Cochrane review, originally published in 1998, which explored the effects of all vaccines for preventing cholera. This review examines oral vaccines made from killed bacteria.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and safety of the available World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalified oral killed cholera vaccines among children and adults.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; CENTRAL, MEDLINE; Embase; LILACS; and two trials registers (February 2023).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), including cluster-RCTs. There were no restrictions on the age and sex of the participants or the setting of the study. We considered any available WHO-prequalified oral killed cholera vaccine as an intervention. The control group was given a placebo, another vaccine, or no vaccine. The outcomes were related to vaccine effectiveness and safety. We included articles published in English only.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently applied the inclusion criteria and extracted data from included studies. We assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane ROB 1 assessment tool. We used the generic inverse variance and a random-effects model meta-analysis to estimate the pooled effect of the interventions. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach. For vaccine effectiveness (VE), we converted the overall risk ratio (RR) to vaccine effectiveness using the formula: VE = (1 - RR) x 100%.

MAIN RESULTS

Five RCTs, reported in 12 records, with 462,754 participants, met the inclusion criteria. We identified trials on whole-cell plus recombinant vaccine (WC-rBS vaccine (Dukoral)) from Peru and trials on bivalent whole-cell vaccine (BivWC (Shanchol)) vaccine from India and Bangladesh. We did not identify any trials on other BivWC vaccines (Euvichol/Euvichol-Plus), or Hillchol. Two doses of Dukoral with or without a booster dose reduces cases of cholera at two-year follow-up in a general population of children and adults, and at five-month follow-up in an adult male population (overall VE 76%; RR 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08 to 0.65; 2 trials, 16,423 participants; high-certainty evidence). Two doses of Shanchol reduces cases of cholera at one-year follow-up (overall VE 37%; RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.85; 2 trials, 241,631 participants; high-certainty evidence), at two-year follow-up (overall VE 64%; RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.81; 2 trials, 168,540 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), and at five-year follow-up (overall VE 80%; RR 0.20, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.26; 1 trial, 54,519 participants; high-certainty evidence). A single dose of Shanchol reduces cases of cholera at six-month follow-up (overall VE 40%; RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.77; 1 trial, 204,700 participants; high-certainty evidence), and at two-year follow-up (overall VE 39%; RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.70; 1 trial, 204,700 participants; high-certainty evidence). A single dose of Shanchol also reduces cases of severe dehydrating cholera at six-month follow-up (overall VE 63%; RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.50; 1 trial, 204,700 participants; high-certainty evidence), and at two-year follow-up (overall VE 50%; RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.60; 1 trial, 204,700 participants; high-certainty evidence). We found no differences in the reporting of adverse events due to vaccination between the vaccine and control/placebo groups.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Two doses of Dukoral reduces cases of cholera at two-year follow-up. Two doses of Shanchol reduces cases of cholera at five-year follow-up, and a single dose of Shanchol reduces cases of cholera at two-year follow-up. Overall, the vaccines were safe and well-tolerated. We found no trials on other BivWC vaccines (Euvichol/Euvichol-Plus). However, BivWC products (Shanchol, Euvichol/Euvichol-Plus) are considered to produce comparable vibriocidal responses. Therefore, it is reasonable to apply the results from Shanchol trials to the other BivWC products (Euvichol/Euvichol-Plus).

Competing Heterogeneities in Vaccine Effectiveness Estimation

Understanding the waning of vaccine-induced protection is important for both immunology and public health. Population heterogeneities in underlying (pre-vaccination) susceptibility and vaccine response can cause measured vaccine effectiveness (mVE) to change over time, even in the absence of pathogen evolution and any actual waning of immune responses. We use multi-scale agent-based models parameterized using epidemiological and immunological data, to investigate the effect of these heterogeneities on mVE as measured by the hazard ratio. Based on our previous work, we consider the waning of antibodies according to a power law and link it to protection in two ways: (1) motivated by correlates of risk data and (2) using a within-host model of stochastic viral extinction. The effect of the heterogeneities is given by concise and understandable formulas, one of which is essentially a generalization of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection to include higher derivatives. Heterogeneity in underlying susceptibility accelerates apparent waning, whereas heterogeneity in vaccine response slows down apparent waning. Our models suggest that heterogeneity in underlying susceptibility is likely to dominate. However, heterogeneity in vaccine response offsets <10% to >100% (median of 29%) of this effect in our simulations. Our study suggests heterogeneity is more likely to 'bias' mVE downwards towards the faster waning of immunity but a subtle bias in the opposite direction is also plausible.

Competing Heterogeneities in Vaccine Effectiveness Estimation

Understanding waning of vaccine-induced protection is important for both immunology and public health. Population heterogeneities in underlying (pre-vaccination) susceptibility and vaccine response can cause measured vaccine effectiveness (mVE) to change over time even in the absence of pathogen evolution and any actual waning of immune responses. We use a multi-scale agent-based models parameterized using epidemiological and immunological data, to investigate the effect of these heterogeneities on mVE as measured by the hazard ratio. Based on our previous work, we consider waning of antibodies according to a power law and link it to protection in two ways: 1) motivated by correlates of risk data and 2) using a within-host model of stochastic viral extinction. The effect of the heterogeneities is given by concise and understandable formulas, one of which is essentially a generalization of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection to include higher derivatives. Heterogeneity in underlying susceptibility accelerates apparent waning, whereas heterogeneity in vaccine response slows down apparent waning. Our models suggest that heterogeneity in underlying susceptibility is likely to dominate. However, heterogeneity in vaccine response offsets <10% to >100% (median of 29%) of this effect in our simulations. Our methodology and results may be helpful in understanding competing heterogeneities and waning of immunity and vaccine-induced protection. Our study suggests heterogeneity is more likely to 'bias' mVE downwards towards faster waning of immunity but a subtle bias in the opposite direction is also plausible.

Estimating Waning of Vaccine Effectiveness: A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Developing accurate and reliable methods to estimate vaccine protection is a key goal in immunology and public health. While several statistical methods have been proposed, their potential inaccuracy in capturing fast intraseasonal waning of vaccine-induced protection needs to be rigorously investigated.

METHODS

To compare statistical methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), we generated simulated data using a multiscale, agent-based model of an epidemic with an acute viral infection and differing extents of VE waning. We apply a previously proposed framework for VE measures based on the observational data richness to assess changes of vaccine-induced protection over time.

RESULTS

While VE measures based on hard-to-collect information (eg, the exact timing of exposures) were accurate, usually VE studies rely on time-to-infection data and the Cox proportional hazards model. We found that its extension using scaled Schoenfeld residuals, previously proposed for capturing VE waning, was unreliable in capturing both the degree of waning and its functional form and identified the mathematical factors contributing to this unreliability. We showed that partitioning time and including a time-vaccine interaction term in the Cox model significantly improved estimation of VE waning, even in the case of dramatic, rapid waning. We also proposed how to optimize the partitioning scheme.

CONCLUSIONS

While appropriate for rejecting the null hypothesis of no waning, scaled Schoenfeld residuals are unreliable for estimating the degree of waning. We propose a Cox-model-based method with a time-vaccine interaction term and further optimization of partitioning time. These findings may guide future analysis of VE waning data.

An Age-stratified, Randomized Immunogenicity Trial of Killed Oral Cholera Vaccine with Delayed Second Dose in Cameroon

The recommended schedule for killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is two doses, 2 weeks apart. However, during vaccine campaigns, the second round is often delayed by several months. Because more information is needed to document antibody responses when the second dose is delayed, we conducted an open-label, phase 2, noninferiority clinical trial of OCV. One hundred eighty-six participants were randomized into three dose-interval groups (DIGs) to receive the second dose 2 weeks, 6 months, or 11.5 months after the first dose. The DIGs were stratified into three age strata: 1 to 4, 5 to 14, and > 14 years. Inaba and Ogawa vibriocidal titers were assessed before and after vaccination. The primary analysis was geometric mean titer (GMT) 2 weeks after the second dose. Data for primary analysis was available from 147 participants (54, 44, and 49 participants from the three DIGs respectively). Relative to the 2-week interval, groups receiving a delayed second dose had significantly higher GMTs after the second dose. Two weeks after the second dose, Inaba GMTs were 55.1 190.3, and 289.8 and Ogawa GMTs were 70.4, 134.5, and 302.4 for the three DIGs respectively. The elevated titers were brief, returning to lower levels within 3 months. We conclude that when the second dose of killed oral cholera vaccine was given after 6 or 11.5 months, vibriocidal titers were higher than when given after the standard period of 2 weeks. This provides reassurance that a delayed second dose does not compromise, but rather enhances, the serological response to the vaccine.

Mathematical Modeling of Endemic Cholera Transmission

Mathematical modeling can be used to project the impact of mass vaccination on cholera transmission. Here, we discuss 2 examples for which indirect protection from mass vaccination needs to be considered. In the first, we show that nonvaccinees can be protected by mass vaccination campaigns. This additional benefit of indirect protection improves the cost-effectiveness of mass vaccination. In the second, we model the use of mass vaccination to eliminate cholera. In this case, a high population level of immunity, including contributions from infection and vaccination, is required to reach the “herd immunity” threshold needed to stop transmission and achieve elimination.

Durability of protection after 5 doses of acellular pertussis vaccine among 5-9 year old children in King County, Washington

PURPOSE

Waning of immunity after vaccination with the acellular Pertussis (aP) vaccine has been proposed as one of the main reasons for pertussis resurgence in the US. In this study, we estimated time-varying vaccine effectiveness after 5 doses of aP vaccine.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among children 5-9 years old (born between 2008 and 2012) living in King County, Washington, USA, who participated in the Washington State Immunization Information System. We estimated time-varying vaccine effectiveness after 5 doses of aP using smoothed scaled Schoenfeld residuals obtained from fitting Cox proportional hazards models to the data as well as piecewise constant Poisson regression.

RESULTS

There were 55 pertussis cases in this cohort, of whom 22 (40%) were fully-vaccinated and 33 (60%) were under-vaccinated. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) remained high for up to 42 months after the fifth dose (VE(t) = 89%; 95% CI: 64%, 97%) as estimated using survival analysis methods and up to 4 years (VE(t) = 93%; 95% CI: 67%, 98%) as estimated using Poisson regression.

CONCLUSION

We did not find evidence for waning of vaccine effectiveness for up to four years after 5 doses of aP among 5 -9 years old children in King County, WA.

Insights into the gastrointestinal tract microbiomes of Indian population

Trillions of microbes living in the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) of the human body finely tune homeostatic equilibrium in the GIT ecosystem and encode key functionalities that play crucial role in host metabolic functions, synthesis of macro- and micronutrients, xenobiotics metabolisms, development of innate and adaptive immune systems, tissue and organ developments and resistance against invasion of enteric pathogens. The microbial diversity and richness of GIT ecosystem varies greatly between individuals and over time. Extent of taxonomic and functional variations in GIT ecosystem is linked with dietary habit, pharmaceuticals usages, age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, geography, altitude and civilization. Understanding a holistic picture of GIT microbiome of healthy people living across geography and identifying population specific 'keystone' taxa is of immense importance for identifying microbial species that may provide protection against chronic and metabolic diseases. Knowledge on geographic or ethnicity specific microbial signatures may also help us to understand the varied efficacy of different drugs and vaccines in different population. India is the home of more than 1.36 billion people belonging to 2000 human communities residing in well distinct geography. In the present review, we discuss the microbial signatures in health and diseases of the rural and urban Indians living in sea level and high altitude areas.

The impact and cost-effectiveness of controlling cholera through the use of oral cholera vaccines in urban Bangladesh: A disease modeling and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Assuming use of a two-dose killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine to be produced locally, the number of cholera cases and deaths averted was estimated for three target group options (1-4 year olds, 1-14 year olds, and all persons 1+), using cholera incidence data from Dhaka, estimates of vaccination coverage rates from the literature, and a dynamic model of cholera transmission based on data from Matlab, which incorporates herd effects. Local estimates of vaccination costs minus savings in treatment costs, were used to obtain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for one- and ten-dose vial sizes. Vaccinating 1-14 year olds every three years, combined with annual routine vaccination of children, would be the most cost-effective strategy, reducing incidence in this population by 45% (assuming 10% annual migration), and costing was $823 (2015 USD) for single dose vials and $591 (2015 USD) for ten-dose vials per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Vaccinating all ages one year and above would reduce incidence by >90%, but would be 50% less cost-effective ($894-1,234/DALY averted). Limiting vaccination to 1-4 year olds would be the least cost-effective strategy (preventing only 7% of cases and costing $1,276-$1,731/DALY averted), due to the limited herd effects of vaccinating this small population and the lower vaccine efficacy in this age group.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Providing cholera vaccine to slum populations in Dhaka through periodic vaccination campaigns would significantly reduce cholera incidence and inequities, and be especially cost-effective if all 1-14 year olds are targeted.