Challenges of interpreting epidemiologic surveillance pertussis data with changing diagnostic and immunization practices: the case of the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Assessing the Underestimation of Adult Pertussis Disease in Five Latin American Countries

INTRODUCTION

Pertussis, a contagious respiratory disease, is underreported in adults. The study objective was to quantify underestimation of pertussis cases in adults aged ≥ 50 years in five Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru).

METHODS

A previously published probabilistic model was adapted to adjust the number of pertussis cases reported to national surveillance systems by successive multiplication steps (proportion of pertussis cases seeking healthcare; proportion with a specimen collected; proportion sent for confirmatory testing; proportion positive for pertussis; proportion reported to passive surveillance). The proportions at each step were added in a random effects model to produce a pooled overall proportion, and a final multiplier was calculated as the simple inverse of this proportion. This multiplier was applied to the number of cases reported to surveillance to estimate the number of pertussis cases. Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations estimated median as well as upper and lower 90% values. Input data were obtained from surveillance systems and published sources.

RESULTS

The estimated median underestimation factor for pertussis cases in adults ranged from 104 (90% limits 40, 451) in Chile to 114 (90% limits 39, 419) in Argentina. In all five countries, the largest estimated number of cases was in the group aged 50-59 years. The highest number per 100,000 population was in the group aged ≥ 90 years in most countries. The estimated median underestimation factor for pertussis hospitalizations was 2.3 (90% limits 1.8, 3.3) in Brazil and 2.4 (90% limits 1.8, 3.2) in Chile (data not available for other countries).

CONCLUSION

This analysis indicates that the number of pertussis cases in adults aged ≥ 50 years in five Latin American countries is approximately 100 times higher than the number captured in surveillance data. These results could support decision-making in the diagnosis, management, and prevention of pertussis disease in adults.

Epidemiology of pertussis among adolescents, adults, and older adults in selected countries of Latin American: a systematic review

We aimed to describe the impact of pertussis on adolescents, adults, and older adults over 2007–2018 in selected Latin American countries by reviewing the literature. We searched the Medline, Embase, Scopus, LILACS, Scielo, Google Scholar, CAPES Journals Web-portal, and Cochrane databases for observational epidemiological studies, clinical trials, and systematic reviews of primary studies. Data were extracted and analyzed for all individuals aged ≥10 years. Of 6,891 studies identified only 25 were eligible. Studies were conducted in Brazil (14), Argentina (4), Colombia (4), Mexico (2) and Chile (1). Epidemiological data among target population were limited. No studies clearly assessed the status of asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic B. pertussis carriers in these age groups. Among all pertussis cases identified, the percentage of patients ≥10 years-old ranged between 2.1% and 66.7% depending on country and sample characteristics. The definition of cases, diagnostic methods, and age groups were not consistent across studies.

Effect of maternal Tdap on infant antibody response to a primary vaccination series with whole cell pertussis vaccine in São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Maternal Tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccination provides antibody transfer to newborn infants and may affect their antibody response to the primary vaccination series. This study aimed to assess the effect of Tdap vaccination during pregnancy on infant antibody response to the whole cell pertussis (DTwP) primary series.

METHODS

Plasma from 318 pregnant women (243 Tdap-vaccinated and 75 unvaccinated) and their infants (cord blood) was collected at delivery; infant blood was again collected at 2 and 7 months, before and after their primary DTwP series. Anti-pertussis toxin (PT), pertactin (PRN), filamentous hemagglutinin (FHA), fimbriae 2/3 (FIM) and adenylate cyclase toxin (ACT) IgG antibodies were quantified by a microsphere-based multiplex antibody capture assay and anti-PT neutralizing antibodies by the Real Time Cell analysis system.

RESULTS

Infant geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) of IgG anti-Tdap antigens were significantly higher (p < 0.001) among the Tdap-vaccinated (PT: 57.22 IU/mL; PRN: 464.86 IU/mL; FHA: 424.0 IU/mL), versus the unvaccinated group (4 IU/mL, 15.43 IU/mL, 31.99 IU/mL, respectively) at delivery. Anti-FIM and ACT GMCs were similar between the two groups. At 2 months of age, anti-PT, PRN, and FHA GMCs remained higher (p < 0.001) in the Tdap-vaccinated group (12.64 IU/mL; 108.76 IU/mL; 87.41 IU/mL, respectively) than the unvaccinated group (1.02 IU/mL; 4.46 IU/mL; 6.89 IU/mL). However, at 7 months, after receiving the third DTwP dose, the anti-PT GMC was higher (p = 0.016) in the unvaccinated group (7.91 IU/mL) compared to the vaccinated group (2.27 IU/mL), but without differences for anti-PRN, FHA, FIM and ACT GMCs.

CONCLUSION

Elevated antibody levels suggest that maternal Tdap vaccination might protect infants until 2 months of age. Reduced anti-PT levels at 7 months indicate potential blunting of immune response in infants. Surveillance would help determine if blunting alters vaccine immunity and impacts pertussis prevention in infants.

The data used to build the models: Pertussis morbidity and mortality burden considering various Brazilian data sources

BACKGROUND

Pertussis is associated with significant disease burden in children worldwide. In addition to its cyclical nature, resurgences of pertussis cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been reported by many countries. We describe the dynamics of pertussis in Brazil, a middle-income country that has experienced a resurgence and that provides good quality data to allow building a dynamic transmission disease model.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive analysis of pertussis burden considering data from the national disease surveillance system, national hospitalization information system and national mortality registry. Study period was 2000-2016. Absolute numbers and rates per 100,000 inhabitants over time, by age sub-groups and geographical regions are presented.

RESULTS

From 2000 to 2016, a total of 37,299 reported pertussis cases, 25,240 hospitalizations, and 601 deaths due to pertussis were reported. Although the outcomes - pertussis cases, hospitalizations, and deaths - come from independent information systems, our results document low disease burden with periodic increases every 3-4 years during the years 2000-2010, followed by a sharp increase which peaked in 2014. In both periods, disease burden is concentrated in young children, while its more serious outcomes - hospitalizations and deaths, are concentrated in infants. Pre-outbreak and outbreak disease burden as well as timing of peak during the outbreak period vary by states and within geographical regions, representing valuable resources of data for modelling purposes.

CONCLUSION

Consistent disease burden patterns were observed over time in Brazil using a variety of data sources. Given the scarcity of good epidemiological data on pertussis available from low- and middle-income countries, our reported data provide valuable information for the assessment of the public health impact and cost-effectiveness modelling studies of newer strategies to prevent and control pertussis. These data were used to build and calibrate a national dynamic transmission model, which was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Not applicable.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis immunization (aP) in different socioeconomic settings: A dynamic transmission model of pertussis in three Brazilian states

OBJECTIVES

Using dynamic transmission models we evaluated the health and cost outcomes of adding acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination of pregnant women to infant vaccination in three Brazilian states that represent different socioeconomic conditions. The primary objective was to determine whether the same model structure could be used to represent pertussis disease dynamics in differing socioeconomic conditions.

METHODS

We tested three model structures (SIR, SIRS, SIRSIs) to represent population-level transmission in three socio-demographically distinct Brazilian states: São Paulo, Paraná and Bahia. Two strategies were evaluated: infant wP vaccination alone versus maternal aP immunization plus infant wP vaccination. Model projections for 2014-2029 include outpatient and inpatient pertussis cases, pertussis deaths, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, and costs (in 2014 USD) of maternal aP vaccination, infant vaccination, and pertussis medical treatment. Incremental cost per DALY averted is presented from the perspective of the Brazilian National Health System.

RESULTS

Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the SIRSIs model fit best, although it had only a modest improvement in statistical quantitative assessments relative to the SIRS model. For all three Brazilian states, maternal aP immunization led to higher costs but also saved infant lives and averted DALYs. The 2014 USD cost/DALY averted was $3068 in Sao Paulo, $2962 in Parana, and $2022 in Bahia. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding per capita gross regional product only when the probability that a pertussis case is reported was assumed higher than base case implying more overt cases and deaths and therefore more medical costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The same model structure fit all three states best, supporting the idea that the disease behaves similarly across different socioeconomic conditions. We also found that immunization of pregnant women with aP is cost-effective in diverse Brazilian states.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal adult immunization with tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) versus current practice in Brazil

BACKGROUND

A pertussis outbreak occurred in Brazil from 2011 to 2014, despite high coverage of whole-cell pertussis containing vaccines in early childhood. Infants were the most affected. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing universal adult vaccination with Tdap into the National Immunization Program in Brazil.

METHODS

Economic evaluation using a dynamic model to compare two strategies: (1) universal vaccination with single dose of Tdap at 20 years of age and (2) current practice (only pregnant women pertussis vaccination). The health system perspective was adopted. Temporal horizon was 10 years. Discount rate of 5% was applied to costs and benefits. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was obtained from a population-based observational study. Epidemiological, resource utilization and cost estimates were obtained from the Brazilian Health Information Systems. The primary outcome was cost per life year saved (LYS), based on life expectancy at birth in Brazil in 2015. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis were performed.

RESULTS

Adult vaccination with VE of 82.6% and coverage of 40%, at price of US$7.01 per dose, and assuming herd protection would avoid 167 infant deaths by pertussis, saving 12,325 years of life and costing a total of US$105495891.61, from the health system perspective. The universal immunization would result in ICER of US$8459.13. The results were highly sensitive to disease incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that universal adult vaccination with Tdap would not be a cost-effective intervention for preventing pertussis cases and deaths in infants in Brazil.

The situation of vaccines for the prevention of infections in adults: An opinion paper on the situation in Spain

The childhood immunization schedule is well known and generally well implemented in developed countries. For various reasons, the same is not true of vaccines aimed at preventing infections in adults, in which vaccination coverage is incomplete and generally very deficient. In order to assess the situation of adult vaccination in Spain, the Fundación de Ciencias de la Salud has brought together a series of experts in different fields, including doctors, nurses, representatives of patient associations, health managers and economists, health authorities and journalists to deal with this issue. The format was that of a round table in which a series of questions previously formulated by the coordinators were to be answered and debated. The document presented is not an exhaustive review of the topic, nor is it intended to make recommendations, but only to give a multidisciplinary opinion on topics that could be particularly debatable or controversial. The paper reviews the main vaccine-preventable adult diseases, their clinical and economic impact, the possibilities of reducing them with vaccination programmes and the difficulties in carrying them out. The role of nursing, pharmacy services, patient associations and the health administration itself in changing the current situation was discussed. Prospects for new vaccines were discussed and we speculated on the future in this field. Finally, particularly relevant ethical aspects in decision-making regarding vaccination were discussed, which must be faced by both individuals and states. We have tried to summarize, at the end of the presentation of each question, the environment of opinion that was agreed with all the members of the table.

Pertussis epidemiological pattern and disease burden in Brazil: an analysis of national public health surveillance data

Objective: We described pertussis epidemiological trends in Brazil between 2010 and 2015. We also assessed tetanus, diphtheria and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine coverage among pregnant women from 2014, the year of the introduction of Tdap maternal immunization recommendation in Brazil, to 2016.Methods: Epidemiological data for incidence, prevalence, hospitalization, mortality, and maternal vaccination coverage were calculated based on the Brazilian public surveillance databases.Results: The epidemiological data analysis results showed that the pertussis average incidence rate (IR) was 2.19/100,000 inhabitants for all ages, with a peak in 2014 (4.03/100,000 inhabitants) and highest incidence in <1-year-old children (IR = 175.20/100,000). 97.6% of pertussis deaths (405/415) were in <1-year-old children. Maternal immunization coverage was 9.2% in 2014, 40.4% in 2015, and 33.8% in 2016.Conclusions: Pertussis incidence and pertussis-related deaths increased in Brazil from 2010 to 2014 and decreased in 2015. In the two years, 2015 and 2016 that followed the NIP recommendation, Tdap vaccination coverage of pregnant women was low and varying from region to region. More efforts and national plans would help increase awareness and maternal immunization coverage.

Association between the timing of maternal vaccination and newborns' anti-pertussis toxin antibody levels

BACKGROUND

Pertussis remains an important global public health concern, despite the presence of extensive immunization programs. Incidence and severity of pertussis are typically higher in neonates and young infants. As a strategy to protect these young infants, maternal vaccination with Tdap (tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis) has been recommended in Brazil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of Tdap vaccination during pregnancy on the anti-pertussis toxin (PT) IgG response in mothers and their infants at birth.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Maternal and cord blood samples were collected from vaccinated (n = 243) and unvaccinated (n = 75) pregnant women, at the time of delivery, from July 2015 to August 2016 in São Paulo, Brazil. Anti-PT IgG antibodies were quantified by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) and geometric mean concentrations (GMC) were calculated. Relationship between timing of vaccination and antibody concentrations were evaluated.

RESULTS

Maternal and cord blood GMCs among the vaccinated group were 5.4 and 5.6 fold higher [66.5 International Units (IU)/mL and 89.8 IU/mL] compared to the unvaccinated group (12.4 IU/mL and 16.1 IU/mL), respectively (p < 0.001). Higher anti-PT IgG GMCs were observed when vaccination occurred ≥60 days before delivery compared to <60 days, suggesting that vaccination early in the third trimester may be more effective than later in pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

Tdap maternal vaccination results in significantly higher anti-PT IgG in newborn infants and supports the current recommendation of the Brazilian Immunization Program.

Neonatal Immunity to Bordetella pertussis Infection and Current Prevention Strategies

Bordetella pertussis is the bacterial agent of whooping cough, an infectious disease that is reemerging despite high vaccine coverage. Newborn children are the most affected, not only because they are too young to be vaccinated but also due to qualitative and quantitative differences in their immune system, which makes them more susceptible to infection and severe manifestations, leading to a higher mortality rate comparing to other groups. Until recently, prevention consisted of vaccinating children in the first year of life and the herd vaccination of people directly in touch with them, but the increase in cases demands more effective strategies that can overcome the developing immune response in early life and induce protection while children are most vulnerable.

PERISCOPE: road towards effective control of pertussis

The resurgence and changing epidemiology of pertussis in high-income countries, the high infant mortality caused by pertussis in low-income countries, and the increasing morbidity in all age groups worldwide call for a concerted effort to both improve the current vaccines and develop new vaccines and vaccination strategies against pertussis. In this Personal View, we identify several key obstacles on the path to developing a durable solution for global control of pertussis. To systematically address these obstacles, the PERtussIS Correlates Of Protection Europe (PERISCOPE) Consortium was established in March, 2016. The objectives of this consortium are to increase scientific understanding of immunity to pertussis in humans induced by vaccines and infections, to identify biomarkers of protective immunity, and to generate technologies and infrastructure for the future development of improved pertussis vaccines. By working towards the accelerated licensure and implementation of novel, well tolerated, and effective pertussis vaccines, we hope to strengthen and stimulate further collaboration and transparency between the key stakeholders, including the public, the scientific community, public health institutes, regulatory authorities, and vaccine manufacturers.