1
|
Wang HR, Liu T, Gao X, Wang HB, Xiao JH. Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review. Infect Dis Poverty 2024; 13:38. [PMID: 38790027 PMCID: PMC11127377 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-024-01207-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2024] [Accepted: 05/17/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies. MAIN BODY We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission ( https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/ ). CONCLUSIONS This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hao-Ran Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Hong-Bin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Jian-Hua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Cissé B, Lapen DR, Chalvet-Monfray K, Ogden NH, Ludwig A. Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach. Infect Dis Model 2024; 9:278-297. [PMID: 38328278 PMCID: PMC10847944 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2023] [Revised: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/09/2024] Open
Abstract
In Canada, the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus (WNV) is difficult to predict and, beyond climatic factors, appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States. This hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed model. The main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada, that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission. A Cellular Automata (CA) approach for multiple hosts (birds and humans) is used for a test region in eastern Ontario, Canada. The tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity, host migration, and vector feeding preferences. We developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 k m 2 rectangular cells. We used 2010-2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010-2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public Health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal variation. We considered heterogeneous bird densities (high and low suitability areas) and homogeneous mosquito and human densities. In high suitability areas for birds, we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected birds. We compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected mosquitoes. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB software. The results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics, supporting the validity of our model assumptions and calibration. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5% increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito (c ( B , M ) ) and mosquito natural mortality rate (d M ), had a very limited effect on the total number of cases (newly infected birds and humans), prevalence peak, or date of occurrence. We demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Baki Cissé
- Public Health Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, Canada
- Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - David R. Lapen
- Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, K1A 0C6, Canada
| | - K. Chalvet-Monfray
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Marcy l’Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
| | - Nicholas H. Ogden
- Public Health Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, Canada
- Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - Antoinette Ludwig
- Public Health Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, Canada
- Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Talbot B, Kulkarni MA, Rioux-Rousseau M, Siebels K, Kotchi SO, Ogden NH, Ludwig A. Ecological Niche and Positive Clusters of Two West Nile Virus Vectors in Ontario, Canada. ECOHEALTH 2023; 20:249-262. [PMID: 37985537 PMCID: PMC10757704 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-023-01653-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Revised: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen associated with uncommon but severe neurological complications in humans, especially among the elderly and immune-compromised. In Northeastern North America, the Culex pipiens/restuans complex and Aedes vexans are the two principal vector mosquito species/species groups of WNV. Using a 10-year surveillance dataset of WNV vector captures at 118 sites across an area of 40,000 km2 in Eastern Ontario, Canada, the ecological niches of Cx. pipiens/restuans and Aedes vexans were modeled by random forest analysis. Spatiotemporal clusters of WNV-positive mosquito pools were identified using Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic. The study region encompasses land cover types and climate representative of highly populated Southeastern Canada. We found highest vector habitat suitability in the eastern half of the study area, where temperatures are generally warmer (variable importance > 0.40) and residential and agricultural cropland cover is more prominent (variable importance > 0.25). We found spatiotemporal clusters of high WNV infection rates around the city of Ottawa in both mosquito vector species. These results support the previous literature in the same region and elsewhere suggesting areas surrounding highly populated areas are also high-risk areas for vector-borne zoonoses such as the WNV.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Benoit Talbot
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada.
| | - Manisha A Kulkarni
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Maxime Rioux-Rousseau
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Kevin Siebels
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Serge Olivier Kotchi
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
- Signal, Image Processing and Multimedia (STIM), Research Unit and Digital Expertise (UREN), Université Virtuelle de Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Antoinette Ludwig
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Misbah S, Low VL, Mohd Rahim NF, Jaba R, Basari N, Ya'cob Z, Abu Bakar S. Mitochondrial Diversity of the Asian Tiger Mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Peninsular Malaysia. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2022; 59:865-873. [PMID: 35178576 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjac014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Aedes albopictus is one of the main mosquito vectors responsible for transmitting arboviruses to humans and animals. The ability of this mosquito to support virus transmission has been linked to vector competence, which is partly attributed to the genetic disparities in Ae. albopictus population. At present, little is known about the biologically important traits of Ae. albopictus in Malaysia. Thus, the study aims to determine the genetic variation of Ae. albopictus based on the mitochondria-encoded sequences of cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI). A statistical parsimony network of 253 taxa aligned as 321 characters of the COI gene revealed 42 haplotypes (H1-H42), of which H1 was the most widespread haplotype in Peninsular Malaysia. Three highly divergent haplotypes (H21, H30, and H31) were detected from the northern population. Overall, haplotype and nucleotide diversities were 0.576 and 0.003, respectively, with low genetic differentiation (FST = 0.039) and high gene flow (Nm = 12.21) across all populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Suzana Misbah
- Biological Security and Sustainability (BioSES) Research Interest Group, Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
- Institute of Marine Biotechnology, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Van Lun Low
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Tropical Infectious Diseases Research & Education Centre (TIDREC), Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Nurul Farhana Mohd Rahim
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Tropical Infectious Diseases Research & Education Centre (TIDREC), Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Rizzuaeammie Jaba
- Biological Security and Sustainability (BioSES) Research Interest Group, Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Norasmah Basari
- Biological Security and Sustainability (BioSES) Research Interest Group, Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Zubaidah Ya'cob
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Tropical Infectious Diseases Research & Education Centre (TIDREC), Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Sazaly Abu Bakar
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Tropical Infectious Diseases Research & Education Centre (TIDREC), Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Lee SA, Jarvis CI, Edmunds WJ, Economou T, Lowe R. Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210096. [PMID: 34034534 PMCID: PMC8150046 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sophie A. Lee
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christopher I. Jarvis
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Shocket MS, Verwillow AB, Numazu MG, Slamani H, Cohen JM, El Moustaid F, Rohr J, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA. Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C. eLife 2020; 9:e58511. [PMID: 32930091 PMCID: PMC7492091 DOI: 10.7554/elife.58511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Marta S Shocket
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
| | | | - Mailo G Numazu
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
| | - Hani Slamani
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jeremy M Cohen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of WisconsinMadisonUnited States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jason Rohr
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute of Global Health, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre DameSouth BendUnited States
| | - Leah R Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Marini G, Calzolari M, Angelini P, Bellini R, Bellini S, Bolzoni L, Torri D, Defilippo F, Dorigatti I, Nikolay B, Pugliese A, Rosà R, Tamba M. A quantitative comparison of West Nile virus incidence from 2013 to 2018 in Emilia-Romagna, Italy. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0007953. [PMID: 31895933 PMCID: PMC6939904 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2019] [Accepted: 11/20/2019] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Background West Nile virus (WNV) transmission was much greater in 2018 than in previous seasons in Europe. Focusing on Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy), we analyzed detailed entomological and epidemiological data collected in 2013–2018 to quantitatively assess environmental drivers of transmission and explore hypotheses to better understand why the 2018 epidemiological season was substantially different than the previous seasons. In particular, in 2018 WNV was detected at least two weeks before the observed circulation in 2013–2017 and in a larger number of mosquito pools. Transmission resulted in 100 neuroinvasive human cases in the region, more than the total number of cases recorded between 2013 and 2017. Methodology We used temperature-driven mathematical models calibrated through a Bayesian approach to simulate mosquito population dynamics and WNV infection rates in the avian population. We then estimated the human transmission risk as the probability, for a person living in the study area, of being bitten by an infectious mosquito in a given week. Finally, we translated such risk into reported WNV human infections. Principal findings The estimated prevalence of WNV in the mosquito and avian populations were significantly higher in 2018 with respect to 2013–2017 seasons, especially in the eastern part of the region. Furthermore, peak avian prevalence was estimated to have occurred earlier, corresponding to a steeper decline towards the end of summer. The high mosquito prevalence resulted in a much greater predicted risk for human transmission in 2018, which was estimated to be up to eight times higher than previous seasons. We hypothesized, on the basis of our modelling results, that such greater WNV circulation might be partially explained by exceptionally high spring temperatures, which have likely helped to amplify WNV transmission at the beginning of the 2018 season. West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most recent emerging mosquito-borne diseases in Europe and North America. While most human infections are asymptomatic, about 1% of them can result in severe neurological diseases which might be fatal. WNV transmission was unusually greater in 2018 than in previous years in many European countries, resulting in a large number of human infections. Focusing on Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), we developed an epidemiological model informed by entomological data; through that we found that exceptionally high spring temperatures might have contributed at amplifying WNV transmission at the beginning of the season, causing greater WNV prevalence in mosquito and avian populations during the summer, which resulted in a higher estimated risk for human transmission. Thus, weather anomalies at the beginning of the mosquito breeding season, which are likely to become more common under the projected scenarios of climate change, might act as an early warning signal for public health authorities, enabling them to design efficient surveillance and prevention strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Marini
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige (TN), Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- * E-mail:
| | - Mattia Calzolari
- Laboratory of Entomology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna “B. Ubertini”, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Paola Angelini
- Public Health Service, Emilia-Romagna Region, Bologna, Italy
| | - Romeo Bellini
- Dept. Medical & Veterinary Entomology, Centro Agricoltura Ambiente “G. Nicoli”, Crevalcore, Italy
| | - Silvia Bellini
- Epidemiology Unit, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna “B. Ubertini”, Bologna, Italy
| | - Luca Bolzoni
- Risk Analysis and Genomic Epidemiology Unit, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna “B. Ubertini”, Parma, Italy
| | - Deborah Torri
- Laboratory of Entomology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna “B. Ubertini”, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Francesco Defilippo
- Laboratory of Entomology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna “B. Ubertini”, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Ilaria Dorigatti
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Birgit Nikolay
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- CNRS UMR2000: Génomique évolutive, modélisation et santé, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Andrea Pugliese
- Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Roberto Rosà
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige (TN), Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all’Adige (TN), Italy
| | - Marco Tamba
- Epidemiology Unit, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna “B. Ubertini”, Bologna, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: an updated focus on West Nile virus in humans. Emerg Top Life Sci 2019; 3:143-152. [DOI: 10.1042/etls20180124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2019] [Revised: 03/31/2019] [Accepted: 04/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.
Collapse
|
9
|
Ludwig A, Zheng H, Vrbova L, Drebot MA, Iranpour M, Lindsay LR. Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change. CANADA COMMUNICABLE DISEASE REPORT = RELEVE DES MALADIES TRANSMISSIBLES AU CANADA 2019; 45:91-97. [PMID: 31285698 PMCID: PMC6587694 DOI: 10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a03] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A Ludwig
- National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St. Hyacinthe, QC
| | - H Zheng
- Center for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON
| | - L Vrbova
- Center for Food-borne and Environmental & Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON
| | - MA Drebot
- National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MN
| | - M Iranpour
- National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MN
| | - LR Lindsay
- National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MN
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Talbot B, Caron-Lévesque M, Ardis M, Kryuchkov R, Kulkarni MA. Linking Bird and Mosquito Data to Assess Spatiotemporal West Nile Virus Risk in Humans. ECOHEALTH 2019; 16:70-81. [PMID: 30673905 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-019-01393-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2018] [Revised: 12/07/2018] [Accepted: 12/10/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV; family Flaviviridae) causes a disease in humans that may develop into a deadly neuroinvasive disease. In North America, several peridomestic bird species can develop sufficient viremia to infect blood-feeding mosquito vectors without succumbing to the virus. Mosquito species from the genus Culex, Aedes and Ochlerotatus display variable host preferences, ranging between birds and mammals, including humans, and may bridge transmission among avian hosts and contribute to spill-over transmission to humans. In this study, we aimed to test the effect of density of three mosquito species and two avian species on WNV mosquito infection rates and investigated the link between spatiotemporal clusters of high mosquito infection rates and clusters of human WNV cases. We based our study around the city of Ottawa, Canada, between the year 2007 and 2014. We found a large effect size of density of two mosquito species on mosquito infection rates. We also found spatiotemporal overlap between a cluster of high mosquito infection rates and a cluster of human WNV cases. Our study is innovative because it suggests a role of avian and mosquito densities on mosquito infection rates and, in turn, on hotspots of human WNV cases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Benoit Talbot
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Room 217A, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON, K1G 5Z3, Canada.
| | - Merlin Caron-Lévesque
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Room 217A, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON, K1G 5Z3, Canada
| | - Mark Ardis
- GDG Environnement, Trois-Rivières, QC, Canada
| | - Roman Kryuchkov
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Room 217A, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON, K1G 5Z3, Canada
| | - Manisha A Kulkarni
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Room 217A, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON, K1G 5Z3, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Lustig Y, Sofer D, Bucris ED, Mendelson E. Surveillance and Diagnosis of West Nile Virus in the Face of Flavivirus Cross-Reactivity. Front Microbiol 2018; 9:2421. [PMID: 30369916 PMCID: PMC6194321 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2018.02421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2018] [Accepted: 09/21/2018] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
West Nile Virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne flavivirus whose zoonotic cycle includes both mosquitoes and birds as amplifiers and humans and horses as dead-end hosts. In recent years WNV has been spreading globally and is currently endemic in Africa, The Middle East, India, Australia, central and southern Europe, and the Americas. Integrated surveillance schemes and environmental data aim to detect viral circulation and reduce the risk of infection for the human population emphasizing the critical role for One Health principles in public health. Approximately 20% of WNV infected patients develop West Nile Fever while in less than 1%, infection results in West Nile Neurological Disease. Currently, the diagnosis of WNV infection is primarily based on serology, since molecular identification of WNV RNA is unreliable due to the short viremia. The recent emergence of Zika virus epidemic in America and Asia has added another layer of complexity to WNV diagnosis due to significant cross-reactivity between several members of the Flaviviridae family such as Zika, dengue, Usutu, and West Nile viruses. Diagnosis is especially challenging in persons living in regions with flavivirus co-circulation as well as in travelers from WNV endemic countries traveling to Zika or dengue infected areas or vise-versa. Here, we review the recent studies implementing WNV surveillance of mosquitoes and birds within the One Health initiative. Furthermore, we discuss the utility of novel molecular methods, alongside traditional molecular and serological methods, in WNV diagnosis and epidemiological research.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yaniv Lustig
- Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | - Danit Sofer
- Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | - Efrat Dahan Bucris
- Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | - Ella Mendelson
- Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel.,School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| |
Collapse
|