Potential implications of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: where are we going from now?

The impact of COVID-19 and national pandemic responses on health service utilisation in seven low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health services worldwide, which may have led to increased mortality and secondary disease outbreaks. Disruptions vary by patient population, geographic area, and service. While many reasons have been put forward to explain disruptions, few studies have empirically investigated their causes.

OBJECTIVE

We quantify disruptions to outpatient services, facility-based deliveries, and family planning in seven low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and quantify relationships between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses.

METHODS

We leveraged routine data from 104 Partners In Health-supported facilities from January 2016 to December 2021. We first quantified COVID-19-related disruptions in each country by month using negative binomial time series models. We then modelled the relationship between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses, as measured by the stringency index from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.

RESULTS

For all the studied countries, we observed at least one month with a significant decline in outpatient visits during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also observed significant cumulative drops in outpatient visits across all months in Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. A significant cumulative decrease in facility-based deliveries was observed in Haiti, Lesotho, Mexico, and Sierra Leone. No country had significant cumulative drops in family planning visits. For a 10-unit increase in the average monthly stringency index, the proportion deviation in monthly facility outpatient visits compared to expected fell by 3.9% (95% CI: -5.1%, -1.6%). No relationship between stringency of pandemic responses and utilisation was observed for facility-based deliveries or family planning.

CONCLUSIONS

Context-specific strategies show the ability of health systems to sustain essential health services during the pandemic. The link between pandemic responses and healthcare utilisation can inform purposeful strategies to ensure communities have access to care and provide lessons for promoting the utilisation of health services elsewhere.

SARS-CoV-2 at the Human-Animal Interface: Implication for Global Public Health from an African Perspective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become the most far-reaching public health crisis of modern times. Several efforts are underway to unravel its root cause as well as to proffer adequate preventive or inhibitive measures. Zoonotic spillover of the causative virus from an animal reservoir to the human population is being studied as the most likely event leading to the pandemic. Consequently, it is important to consider viral evolution and the process of spread within zoonotic anthropogenic transmission cycles as a global public health impact. The diverse routes of interspecies transmission of SARS-CoV-2 offer great potential for a future reservoir of pandemic viruses evolving from the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic circulation. To mitigate possible future infectious disease outbreaks in Africa and elsewhere, there is an urgent need for adequate global surveillance, prevention, and control measures that must include a focus on known and novel emerging zoonotic pathogens through a one health approach. Human immunization efforts should be approached equally through the transfer of cutting-edge technology for vaccine manufacturing throughout the world to ensure global public health and one health.

Adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures in Sub-Saharan Africa during the 1st year of the pandemic: Pooled analysis of the International Citizen Project on COVID-19 (ICPCovid) surveys

Introduction

While most governments instituted several interventions to stall the spread of COVID-19, little is known regarding the continued observance of the non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 preventive measures particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We investigated adherence to these preventive measures during the initial 6 months of the COVID-19 outbreak in some SSA countries.

Methods

Between March and August 2020, the International Citizen Project on COVID-19 consortium (www.icpcovid.com) conducted online surveys in six SSA countries: Benin, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Somalia, and Uganda. A five-point individual adherence score was constituted by scoring respondents' observance of the following measures: mask use, physical distancing, hand hygiene, coughing hygiene, and avoiding to touch one's face. Community behaviors (going to public places, traveling during the pandemic) were also assessed. Data were analyzed in two time periods: Period 1 (March-May) and Period 2 (June-August).

Results

Responses from 26,678 respondents were analyzed (mean age: 31.0 ± 11.1 years; 54.1% males). Mean individual adherence score decreased from 3.80 ± 1.37 during Period 1, to 3.57 ± 1.43 during Period 2; p < 0.001. At the community level, public events/places were significantly more attended with increased travels during Period 2 compared to Period 1 (p < 0.001). Using linear mixed models, predictors of increased individual adherence included: higher age (Coef = 0.005; 95% CI: 0.003-0.007), female gender (Coef = 0.071; 95% CI: 0.039-0.104), higher educational level (Coef = 0.999; 95% CI: 0.885-1.113), and working in the healthcare sector (Coef = 0.418; 95% CI: 0.380-0.456).

Conclusion

Decreasing adherence to non-pharmaceutical measures over time constitutes a risk for the persistence of COVID-19 in SSA. Younger persons and those with lower education levels constitute target groups for improving adherence to such measures.

Knowledge, risk-perception, and uptake of COVID-19 prevention measures in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has almost affected the entire globe and is currently in a resurgent phase within the sub-Saharan African region.

Objective

This paper presents results from a scoping review of literature on knowledge, risk-perception, conspiracy theories and uptake of COVID-19 prevention measures in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We used the following search terms: 'COVID-19', 'knowledge', 'perceptions', 'perspectives', 'misconceptions', 'conspiracy theories', 'practices' and 'sub-Saharan Africa'. Basing on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines, we identified 466 articles for review; 36 articles met the inclusion criteria. We extracted data on knowledge, risk-perception, conspiracy theories and uptake of COVID-19 primary prevention measures.

Results

Knowledge of COVID-19 was high (91.3-100%) and associated with age and education; risk-perception was equally high (73.3-86.9%) but varied across studies. Uptake of hand-washing with water and soap or hand-sanitizing ranged between 63-96.4%, but wearing of face masks and social distancing fared poorly (face masks: 2.7%-37%; social distancing: 19-43%).

Conclusion

While knowledge of COVID-19 is nearly universal, uptake of COVID-19 prevention measures remains sub-optimal to defeat the pandemic. These findings suggest a need for continued health promotion to increase uptake of the recommended COVID-19 prevention measures in sub-Saharan Africa.

Phylogenetic and genome-wide mutational analysis of SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating in Nigeria: no implications for attenuated COVID-19 outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates are low in Nigeria compared to global trends. This research mapped the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in Nigeria and globally to determine whether the Nigerian isolates are genetically distinct from strains circulating in regions of the world with a high disease burden.

METHODS

Bayesian phylogenetics using BEAST 2.0, genetic similarity analyses, and genomewide mutational analyses were used to characterize the strains of SARS-CoV-2 isolated in Nigeria.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2 strains isolated in Nigeria showed multiple lineages and possible introductions from Europe and Asia. Phylogenetic clustering and sequence similarity analyses demonstrated that Nigerian isolates were not genetically distinct from strains isolated in other parts of the globe. Mutational analysis demonstrated that the D614G mutation in the spike protein, the P323L mutation in open reading frame 1b (and more specifically in NSP12), and the R203K/ G204R mutation pair in the nucleocapsid protein were most prevalent in the Nigerian isolates.

CONCLUSION

The SARS-CoV-2 strains in Nigeria were neither phylogenetically nor genetically distinct from virus strains circulating in other countries of the world. Thus, differences in SARS-CoV-2 genomes are not a plausible explanation for the attenuated COVID-19 outcomes in Nigeria.

COVID-19: A pluralistic and integrated approach for efficient management of the pandemic

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which triggered the ongoing pandemic, was first discovered in China in late 2019. SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that often manifests as a pneumonic syndrome. In the context of the pandemic, there are mixed views on the data provided by epidemiologists and the information collected by hospital clinicians about their patients. In addition, the literature reports a large proportion of patients free of pneumonia vs a small percentage of patients with severe pneumonia among confirmed COVID-19 cases. This raises the issue of the complexity of the work required to control or contain the pandemic. We believe that an integrative and pluralistic approach will help to put the analyses into perspective and reinforce collaboration and creativity in the fight against this major scourge. This paper proposes a comprehensive and integrative approach to COVID-19 research, prevention, control, and treatment to better address the pandemic. Thus, this literature review applies a pluralistic approach to fight the pandemic.

Prevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Among Healthcare Workers-Zambia, July 2020

BACKGROUND

Healthcare workers (HCWs) in Zambia have become infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, SARS-CoV-2 prevalence among HCWs is not known in Zambia.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional SARS-CoV-2 prevalence survey among Zambian HCWs in 20 health facilities in 6 districts in July 2020. Participants were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for health facility clustering, were calculated for each test separately, and a combined measure for those who had PCR and ELISA was performed.

RESULTS

In total, 660 HCWs participated in the study, with 450 (68.2%) providing a nasopharyngeal swab for PCR and 575 (87.1%) providing a blood specimen for ELISA. Sixty-six percent of participants were females, and median age was 31.5 years (interquartile range, 26.2-39.8). The overall prevalence of the combined measure was 9.3% (95% CI, 3.8%-14.7%). PCR-positive prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 6.6% (95% CI, 2.0%-11.1%), and ELISA-positive prevalence was 2.2% (95% CI, .5%-3.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 prevalence among HCWs was similar to a population-based estimate (10.6%) during a period of community transmission in Zambia. Public health measures such as establishing COVID-19 treatment centers before the first cases, screening for COVID-19 symptoms among patients who access health facilities, infection prevention and control trainings, and targeted distribution of personal protective equipment based on exposure risk might have prevented increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission among Zambian HCWs.

Addressing Africa's pandemic puzzle: Perspectives on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

To date, SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) has spread to almost every region of the world, infecting millions and resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Although it was predicted that Africa would suffer a massive loss of life due to this pandemic, the number of COVID-19 cases has been relatively low across the continent. Researchers have speculated that several factors may be responsible for this outcome in Africa, including the extensive experience that countries have with infectious diseases and the young median age of their populations. However, it is still important for African countries to adopt aggressive and bold approaches against COVID-19, in case the nature of the pandemic changes. This short review will summarize the status of the outbreak in Africa and propose possible reasons for current trends, as well as discuss interventions aimed at preventing a rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the future.