Epidemiology of acute rubella infection in Zambia during the pre-vaccination period (2005-2016) as a baseline for monitoring rubella epidemiology in the post-rubella vaccine introduction era

Who is missed in a community-based survey: Assessment and implications of biases due to incomplete sampling frame in a community-based serosurvey, Choma and Ndola Districts, Zambia, 2022

Community-based serological studies are increasingly relied upon to measure disease burden, identify population immunity gaps, and guide control and elimination strategies; however, there is little understanding of the potential for and impact of sampling biases on outcomes of interest. As part of efforts to quantify measles immunity gaps in Zambia, a community-based serological survey using stratified multi-stage cluster sampling approach was conducted in Ndola and Choma districts in May-June 2022, enrolling 1245 individuals. We carried out a follow-up study among individuals missed from the sampling frame of the serosurvey in July-August 2022, enrolling 672 individuals. We assessed the potential for and impact of biases in the community-based serosurvey by i) estimating differences in characteristics of households and individuals included and excluded (77% vs 23% of households) from the sampling frame of the serosurvey and ii) evaluating the magnitude these differences make on healthcare-seeking behavior, vaccination coverage, and measles seroprevalence. We found that missed households were 20% smaller and 25% less likely to have children. Missed individuals resided in less wealthy households, had different distributions of sex and occupation, and were more likely to seek care at health facilities. Despite these differences, simulating a survey in which missed households were included in the sampling frame resulted in less than a 5% estimated bias in these outcomes. Although community-based studies are upheld as the gold standard study design in assessing immunity gaps and underlying community health characteristics, these findings underscore the fact that sampling biases can impact the results of even well-conducted community-based surveys. Results from these studies should be interpreted in the context of the study methodology and challenges faced during implementation, which include shortcomings in establishing accurate and up-to-date sampling frames. Failure to account for these shortcomings may result in biased estimates and detrimental effects on decision-making.

Estimated incidence and transmission intensity of rubella infection in Zambia pre-vaccine era 2005-2016

The rubella disease burden in Zambia may be under-estimated. Using models, we describe the transmission dynamics, determine the incidence estimates and assess the level of underestimation of the real burden of rubella infection in Zambia during the pre-vaccination period 2005-2016. This study used both the deterministic compartmental model and likelihood-based method using a Bayesian framework to describe the epidemiology of rubella. A total of 1313 cases of rubella were confirmed with the highest annual number of 255 new cases recorded in 2008. However, 2014 recorded the highest monthly median positivity rate of 9.0%. The observed median rubella cases were 5.5. There was a seasonal pattern in the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed rubella, with higher test positivity rates of rubella infection usually recorded in the months of September, October and November. The modelled monthly median incidence of rubella infection among the general population was 76 and 20 among pregnant women. The incidence of rubella among the non-pregnant women was 44. The average effective reproductive number (Rt) between 2005 and 2016 was estimated as 1.2 with the peak of infection occurring in 2016. The measles surveillance system underestimates the observed burden of rubella. A mass vaccination campaign conducted between January and July is recommended.

Leveraging a national biorepository in Zambia to assess measles and rubella immunity gaps across age and space

High-quality, representative serological surveys allow direct estimates of immunity profiles to inform vaccination strategies but can be costly and logistically challenging. Leveraging residual serum samples is one way to increase their feasibility. We subsampled 9854 residual sera from a 2016 national HIV survey in Zambia and tested these specimens for anti-measles and anti-rubella virus IgG antibodies using indirect enzyme immunoassays. We demonstrate innovative methods for sampling residual sera and analyzing seroprevalence data, as well as the value of seroprevalence estimates to understand and control measles and rubella. National measles and rubella seroprevalence for individuals younger than 50 years was 82.8% (95% CI 81.6, 83.9%) and 74.9% (95% CI 73.7, 76.0%), respectively. Despite a successful childhood vaccination program, measles immunity gaps persisted across age groups and districts, indicating the need for additional activities to complement routine immunization. Prior to vaccine introduction, we estimated a rubella burden of 96 congenital rubella syndrome cases per 100,000 live births. Residual samples from large-scale surveys can reduce the cost and challenges of conducting serosurveys, and multiple pathogens can be tested. Procedures to access quality specimens, ensure ethical approvals, and link sociodemographic data can improve the timeliness and value of results.

Measles immunity gap among reproductive-age women participating in a simulated HIV vaccine efficacy trial in Zambia

Measles is a vaccine-preventable viral disease whose vaccination coverage remains low in Zambia, where the target group for vaccination is children aged 9 to 18 months. In addition to inadequate measles vaccination coverage among children, few studies address potential resultant immunity gaps among adults. We analyzed data from a simulated HIV vaccine efficacy trial (SiVET) conducted from 2015–2017 among adult Zambian women of childbearing age to determine measles antibody seroprevalence before and after vaccination with the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. We used MMR vaccine as a substitute for an experimental HIV vaccine as part of a simulation exercise to prepare for an HIV vaccine efficacy trial. We found that 75% of women had measles antibodies prior to receiving MMR, which increased to 98% after vaccination. In contrast, mumps and rubella antibody prevalence was high before (93% and 97%, respectively) and after (99% and 100%, respectively) vaccination. The low baseline measles seropositivity suggests an immunity gap among women of childbearing age. We recommend that measles vaccination programs target women of childbearing age, who can pass antibodies on to neonates. Moreover, administering the MMR vaccine to clinical trial candidates could prevent measles, mumps or rubella-related adverse events during actual trials.