1
|
Duval D, Evans B, Sanders A, Hill J, Simbo A, Kavoi T, Lyell I, Simmons Z, Qureshi M, Pearce-Smith N, Arevalo CR, Beck CR, Bindra R, Oliver I. Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map. J Public Health (Oxf) 2024; 46:e279-e293. [PMID: 38426578 PMCID: PMC11141784 DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdae025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were crucial in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, although uncertainties about their effectiveness remain. This work aimed to better understand the evidence generated during the pandemic on the effectiveness of NPIs implemented in the UK. METHODS We conducted a rapid mapping review (search date: 1 March 2023) to identify primary studies reporting on the effectiveness of NPIs to reduce COVID-19 transmission. Included studies were displayed in an interactive evidence gap map. RESULTS After removal of duplicates, 11 752 records were screened. Of these, 151 were included, including 100 modelling studies but only 2 randomized controlled trials and 10 longitudinal observational studies.Most studies reported on NPIs to identify and isolate those who are or may become infectious, and on NPIs to reduce the number of contacts. There was an evidence gap for hand and respiratory hygiene, ventilation and cleaning. CONCLUSIONS Our findings show that despite the large number of studies published, there is still a lack of robust evaluations of the NPIs implemented in the UK. There is a need to build evaluation into the design and implementation of public health interventions and policies from the start of any future pandemic or other public health emergency.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- D Duval
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - B Evans
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - A Sanders
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - J Hill
- Clinical and Public Health Response Division, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
| | - A Simbo
- Evaluation and Epidemiological Science Division, UKHSA, Colindale NW9 5EQ, UK
| | - T Kavoi
- Cheshire and Merseyside Health Protection Team, UKHSA, Liverpool L3 1DS, UK
| | - I Lyell
- Greater Manchester Health Protection Team, UKHSA, Manchester M1 3BN, UK
| | - Z Simmons
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - M Qureshi
- Clinical and Public Health Response Division, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
| | - N Pearce-Smith
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - C R Arevalo
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - C R Beck
- Evaluation and Epidemiological Science Division, UKHSA, Salisbury SP4 0JG, UK
| | - R Bindra
- Clinical and Public Health Response Division, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
| | - I Oliver
- Director General Science and Research and Chief Scientific Officer, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Zhang R, Tai J, Pei S. Ensemble inference of unobserved infections in networks using partial observations. PLoS Comput Biol 2023; 19:e1011355. [PMID: 37549190 PMCID: PMC10434926 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2023] [Revised: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Undetected infections fuel the dissemination of many infectious agents. However, identification of unobserved infectious individuals remains challenging due to limited observations of infections and imperfect knowledge of key transmission parameters. Here, we use an ensemble Bayesian inference method to infer unobserved infections using partial observations. The ensemble inference method can represent uncertainty in model parameters and update model states using all ensemble members collectively. We perform extensive experiments in both model-generated and real-world networks in which individuals have differential but unknown transmission rates. The ensemble method outperforms several alternative approaches for a variety of network structures and observation rates, despite that the model is mis-specified. Additionally, the computational complexity of this algorithm scales almost linearly with the number of nodes in the network and the number of observations, respectively, exhibiting the potential to apply to large-scale networks. The inference method may support decision-making under uncertainty and be adapted for use for other dynamical models in networks.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Renquan Zhang
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
| | - Jilei Tai
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
| | - Sen Pei
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Kim JE, Choi H, Lee M, Lee CH. The effect of shortening the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling approach. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1166528. [PMID: 37546304 PMCID: PMC10401846 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1166528] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2023] [Accepted: 07/06/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023] Open
Abstract
In this paper, we present a mathematical model to assess the impact of reducing the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea. The model incorporates important epidemiological parameters, such as transmission rates and mortality rates, to simulate the transmission of the virus under different scenarios. Our findings reveal that the impact of mask wearing fades in the long term, which highlights the crucial role of quarantine in controlling the spread of the disease. In addition, balancing the confirmed cases and costs, the lifting of mandatory indoor mask wearing is cost-effective; however, maintaining the quarantine period remains essential. A relationship between the disease transmission rate and vaccine efficiency was also apparent, with higher transmission rates leading to a greater impact of the vaccine efficiency. Moreover, our findings indicate that a higher disease transmission rate exacerbates the consequences of early quarantine release.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jung Eun Kim
- Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Korea Science Academy of KAIST, Busan, Republic of Korea
| | - Heejin Choi
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Minji Lee
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Chang Hyeong Lee
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Rosas Cancio-Suárez M, Alonso C, Vivancos MJ, Pérez-Elías MJ, Cárdenas MJ, Vélez-Díaz-Pallarés M, Corbacho MD, Martín-Pedraza L, Muriel A, Martínez-Sanz J, Moreno S. Impact of COVID-19 on the Care of Patients with HIV Infection. J Clin Med 2023; 12:3882. [PMID: 37373579 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12123882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2023] [Revised: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 05/31/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures have been associated with substantial disruptions to health care services, including screening for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and management of people living with HIV (PLWH). Data from 3265 patients were examined in a retrospective cohort study. We compared outpatient follow-up for PLWH, the number of new patients, treatment adherence, hospitalizations, and deaths during the "pandemic period" (March 2020 to February 2021), the "pre-pandemic period" (the equivalent time frame in 2019), and the "post-pandemic period" (March to September 2021). During the pandemic period, the number of new patients seen at the HIV clinic (116) as well as the requested viral load tests (2414) decreased significantly compared to the pre-pandemic (204 and 2831, respectively) and post-pandemic periods (146 and 2640, respectively) (p < 0.01 for all the comparisons). However, across the three study periods, the number of drug refills (1385, 1330, and 1411, respectively), the number of patients with undetectable viral loads (85%, 90%, and 93%, respectively), and the number of hospital admissions among PLWH remained constant. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic's impact, our findings show stability in the retention of clinical care, adherence to treatment, and viral suppression of PLWH, with no significant impact on hospitalization rates or all-cause mortality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Marta Rosas Cancio-Suárez
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
- CIBERINFEC, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Cecilia Alonso
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
| | - María Jesús Vivancos
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
- CIBERINFEC, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - María Jesús Pérez-Elías
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
- CIBERINFEC, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - María José Cárdenas
- Microbiology Department, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
| | - Manuel Vélez-Díaz-Pallarés
- Pharmacy Department, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
| | - María Dolores Corbacho
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
| | - Laura Martín-Pedraza
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
- CIBERINFEC, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Alfonso Muriel
- Biostatistics Department, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, 28034 Madrid, Spain
- Department of Medicine, University of Alcalá de Henares, Guadalajara Campus, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| | - Javier Martínez-Sanz
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
- CIBERINFEC, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Santiago Moreno
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria IRYCIS, Carretera de Colmenar Km 9.1, 28034 Madrid, Spain
- CIBERINFEC, 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Department of Medicine, University of Alcalá de Henares, Guadalajara Campus, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Asai Y. Assessing the efficacy of health countermeasures on arrival time of infectious diseases. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:603-616. [PMID: 37398879 PMCID: PMC10311163 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2023] [Revised: 04/18/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Public health measures to control the international spread of infectious diseases include strengthening quarantines and sealing borders. Although these measures are effective in delaying the importation of infectious diseases, they also have a significant economic impact by stopping the flow of people and goods. The arrival time of infectious diseases is often used to assess quarantine effectiveness. Although the arrival time is highly dependent on the number of infected cases in the endemic country, direct comparisons have not yet been made. Therefore, this study derives an explicit relationship between the number of infected cases and arrival time. Transmission behavior is stochastic, and deterministic models are not always realistic. In this study, random differential equations, which are differential equations with stochastic processes, were used to describe the dynamics of infection in an endemic country. Furthermore, the flow of travelers from the endemic country was described in terms of survival time, and the arrival time in each country was calculated. A scenario in which PCR kits were distributed between endemic and disease-free countries was also considered, and the impact of different distribution rates on arrival time was evaluated. The simulation results showed that increasing the distribution of PCR kits in the endemic country was more effective in delaying arrival times than using PCR kits in quarantine in disease-free countries. It was also found that increasing the proportion of identified infected persons in the endemic country, leading to isolation, was more important and effective in delaying arrival times than increasing the number of PCR tests.
Collapse
|
6
|
Addabbo F, Giotta M, Mincuzzi A, Minerba AS, Prato R, Fortunato F, Bartolomeo N, Trerotoli P. No Excess of Mortality from Lung Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Area at Environmental Risk: Results of an Explorative Analysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:ijerph20085522. [PMID: 37107804 PMCID: PMC10138515 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20085522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2023] [Revised: 03/22/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictive measures associated with it placed enormous pressure on health facilities and may have caused delays in the treatment of other diseases, leading to increases in mortality compared to the expected rates. Areas with high levels of air pollution already have a high risk of death from cancer, so we aimed to evaluate the possible indirect effects of the pandemic on mortality from lung cancer compared to the pre-pandemic period in the province of Taranto, a polluted site of national interest for environmental risk in the south of Italy. METHODS We carried out a retrospective observational study on lung cancer data (ICD-10: C34) from the Registry of Mortality (ReMo) for municipalities in Taranto Province over the period of 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2021. Seasonal exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters additive, Holt-Winters multiplicative, and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast the number of deaths during the pandemic period. Data were standardized by sex and age via an indirect method and shown as monthly mortality rates (MRs), standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and adjusted mortality rates (AMRs). RESULTS In Taranto Province, 3108 deaths from lung cancer were recorded between 2011 and 2021. In the province of Taranto, almost all of the adjusted monthly mortality rates during the pandemic were within the confidence interval of the predicted rates, with the exception of significant excesses in March (+1.82, 95% CI 0.11-3.08) and August 2020 (+2.09, 95% CI 0.20-3.44). In the municipality of Taranto, the only significant excess rate was in August 2020 (+3.51, 95% CI 0.33-6.69). However, in total, in 2020 and 2021, the excess deaths from lung cancer were not significant both for the province of Taranto (+30 (95% CI -77; +106) for 2020 and +28 (95% CI -130; +133) for 2021) and for the municipality of Taranto alone (+14 (95% CI -47; +74) for 2020 and -2 (95% CI -86; +76) for 2021). CONCLUSIONS This study shows that there was no excess mortality from lung cancer as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of Taranto. The strategies applied by the local oncological services during the pandemic were probably effective in minimizing the possible interruption of cancer treatment. Strategies for accessing care in future health emergencies should take into account the results of continuous monitoring of disease trends.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Addabbo
- School of Medical Statistics and Biometry, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Azienda Sanitaria Locale Taranto, 74121 Taranto, Italy;
| | - Massimo Giotta
- School of Medical Statistics and Biometry, Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine, University of Bari Aldo Moro, 70124 Bari, Italy;
| | - Antonia Mincuzzi
- Unit of Statistics and Epidemiology, Azienda Sanitaria Locale Taranto, 74121 Taranto, Italy
| | - Aldo Sante Minerba
- Unit of Statistics and Epidemiology, Azienda Sanitaria Locale Taranto, 74121 Taranto, Italy
| | - Rosa Prato
- Hygiene Unit, Policlinico Riuniti Foggia Hospital, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Foggia, 71122 Foggia, Italy
| | - Francesca Fortunato
- Hygiene Unit, Policlinico Riuniti Foggia Hospital, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Foggia, 71122 Foggia, Italy
| | - Nicola Bartolomeo
- Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine, University of Bari Aldo Moro, 70124 Bari, Italy;
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +39-080-547-8479
| | - Paolo Trerotoli
- Department of Interdisciplinary Medicine, University of Bari Aldo Moro, 70124 Bari, Italy;
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Wei X, Li M, Pei X, Liu Z, Zhang J. Assessing the effectiveness of the intervention measures of COVID-19 in China based on dynamical method. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:159-171. [PMID: 36624814 PMCID: PMC9812467 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.12.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2022] [Revised: 12/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Normalized interventions were implemented in different cities in China to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 before December 2022. However, the differences in the intensity and timeliness of the implementations lead to differences in final size of the infections. Taking the outbreak of COVID-19 in three representative cities Xi'an, Zhengzhou and Yuzhou in January 2022, as examples, we develop a compartmental model to describe the spread of novel coronavirus and implementation of interventions to assess concretely the effectiveness of Chinese interventions and explore their impact on epidemic patterns. After applying reported human confirmed cases to verify the rationality of the model, we apply the model to speculate transmission trend and length of concealed period at the initial spread phase of the epidemic (they are estimated as 10.5, 7.8, 8.2 days, respectively), to estimate the range of basic reproduction number (2.9, 0.7, 1.6), and to define two indexes (transmission rate v t and controlled rate v c ) to evaluate the overall effect of the interventions. It is shown that for Zhengzhou, v c is always more than v t with regular interventions, and Xi'an take 8 days to achieve v c > v t twice as long as Yuzhou, which can interpret the fact that the epidemic situation in Xi'an was more severe. By carrying out parameter values, it is concluded that in the early stage, strengthening the precision of close contact tracking and frequency of large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population are the most effective on controlling the outbreaks and reducing final size. And, if the close contact tracking strategy is sufficiently implemented, at the late stage large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population is not essential.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xiaomeng Wei
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, 030006, Shanxi, China,Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, 030006, Shanxi, China,School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanxi University, 030006, Shanxi, China
| | - Mingtao Li
- College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, 030024, Shanxi, China
| | - Xin Pei
- College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, 030024, Shanxi, China
| | - Zhiping Liu
- School of Data Science and Technology, North University of China, 030051, Shanxi, China
| | - Juan Zhang
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, 030006, Shanxi, China,Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, 030006, Shanxi, China,Corresponding author. Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, 030006, Shanxi, China
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Van Egeren D, Stoddard M, Malakar A, Ghosh D, Acharya A, Mainuddin S, Majumdar B, Luo D, Nolan RP, Joseph-McCarthy D, White LF, Hochberg NS, Basu S, Chakravarty A. No magic bullet: Limiting in-school transmission in the face of variable SARS-CoV-2 viral loads. Front Public Health 2022; 10:941773. [PMID: 36530725 PMCID: PMC9751474 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.941773] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
In the face of a long-running pandemic, understanding the drivers of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission is crucial for the rational management of COVID-19 disease burden. Keeping schools open has emerged as a vital societal imperative during the pandemic, but in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can contribute to further prolonging the pandemic. In this context, the role of schools in driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission acquires critical importance. Here we model in-school transmission from first principles to investigate the effectiveness of layered mitigation strategies on limiting in-school spread. We examined the effect of masks and air quality (ventilation, filtration and ionizers) on steady-state viral load in classrooms, as well as on the number of particles inhaled by an uninfected person. The effectiveness of these measures in limiting viral transmission was assessed for variants with different levels of mean viral load (ancestral, Delta, Omicron). Our results suggest that a layered mitigation strategy can be used effectively to limit in-school transmission, with certain limitations. First, poorly designed strategies (insufficient ventilation, no masks, staying open under high levels of community transmission) will permit in-school spread even if some level of mitigation is present. Second, for viral variants that are sufficiently contagious, it may be difficult to construct any set of interventions capable of blocking transmission once an infected individual is present, underscoring the importance of other measures. Our findings provide practical recommendations; in particular, the use of a layered mitigation strategy that is designed to limit transmission, with other measures such as frequent surveillance testing and smaller class sizes (such as by offering remote schooling options to those who prefer it) as needed.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Debra Van Egeren
- Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, United States
- New York Genome Center, New York, NY, United States
| | | | - Abir Malakar
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, United States
- Department of Civil Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
| | - Debayan Ghosh
- Department of Civil Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
| | - Antu Acharya
- Department of Civil Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
| | - Sk Mainuddin
- Department of Civil Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
| | - Biswajit Majumdar
- Department of Civil Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
| | - Deborah Luo
- Amity Regional High School, Woodbridge, CT, United States
| | | | | | - Laura F. White
- Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Natasha S. Hochberg
- Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, United States
- Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Saikat Basu
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, United States
| | | |
Collapse
|
9
|
Modeling Dynamic Responses to COVID-19 Epidemics: A Case Study in Thailand. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7100303. [PMID: 36288044 PMCID: PMC9612314 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7100303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Revised: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Quantifying the effects of control measures during the emergence and recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 poses a challenge to understanding the dynamic responses in terms of effectiveness and the population’s reaction. This study aims to estimate and compare the non-pharmaceutical interventions applied in the first and second outbreaks of COVID-19 in Thailand. We formulated a dynamic model of transmission and control. For each outbreak, the time interval was divided into subintervals characterized by epidemic events. We used daily case report data to estimate the transmission rates, the quarantine rate, and its efficiency by the maximum likelihood method. The duration-specific control reproduction numbers were calculated. The model predicts that the reproduction number dropped by about 91% after the nationwide lockdown in the first wave. In the second wave, after a high number of cases had been reported, the reproduction number decreased to about 80% in the next phase, but the spread continued. The estimated value was below the threshold in the last phase. For both waves, successful control was mainly induced by decreased transmission rate, while the explicit quarantine measure showed less effectiveness. The relatively weak control measure estimated by the model may have implications for economic impact and the adaptation of people.
Collapse
|