Model-based evaluation of the impact of prophylactic vaccination applied to Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Democratic Republic of Congo

Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola virus disease vaccine regimen plus Ad26.ZEBOV booster at 1 year versus 2 years in health-care and front-line workers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: secondary and exploratory outcomes of an open-label, randomised, phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND

Health-care providers and front-line workers are at risk of contracting Ebola virus disease during an Ebola virus outbreak and consequently of becoming drivers of the disease. We aimed to assess the long-term immunogenicity of the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen and the safety of and immune memory response to an Ad26.ZEBOV booster vaccination at 1 year or 2 years after the first dose in this at-risk population.

METHODS

This open-label, single-centre, randomised, phase 2 trial was conducted at one study site within a hospital in Boende, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Adult health-care providers and front-line workers, excluding those with a known history of Ebola virus disease, were vaccinated with a two-dose heterologous regimen administered at a 56-day interval via a 0·5 mL intramuscular injection in the deltoid muscle, comprising Ad26.ZEBOV as the first dose and MVA-BN-Filo as the second dose. After the initial vaccination on day 1, participants were randomly assigned (1:1) via randomisation envelopes, opened in a sequential order, to receive an Ad26.ZEBOV booster vaccination at 1 year (group 1) or 2 years (group 2) after the first dose. We present the secondary and exploratory objectives of the trial-results of the primary objective have been published elsewhere. We measured immunogenicity at six timepoints per group as geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) of Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific IgG binding antibodies, using the Filovirus Animal Non-Clinical Group ELISA. We assessed serious adverse events occurring up to 6 months after the last dose and local and systemic solicited and unsolicited adverse events reported for 7 days after the booster vaccination. Antibody responses were analysed per protocol, serious adverse events per full analysis set (FAS), and adverse events for all boosted FAS participants. This trial is registered as completed on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04186000).

FINDINGS

Between Dec 18, 2019, and Feb 8, 2020, 699 health-care providers and front-line workers were enrolled and 698 were randomly assigned (350 to group 1 and 348 to group 2 [FAS]); 534 (77%) participants were male and 164 (23%) were female. 319 in group 1 and 317 in group 2 received the booster. 29 (8%) in group 1 and 26 (7%) in group 2 did not complete the study, mostly due to loss to follow-up or moving out of the study area. In both groups, injection-site pain or tenderness (87 [27%] of 319 group 1 participants vs 90 [28%] of 317 group 2 participants) and headache (91 [29%] vs 93 [29%]) were the most common solicited adverse events related to the investigational product. One participant (in group 2) had a related serious adverse event after booster vaccination (fever of ≥40·0°C). Before booster vaccination, Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific IgG binding antibody GMCs were 279·9 ELISA units (EU) per mL (95% CI 250·6-312·7) in 314 group 1 participants (1 year after first dose) and 274·6 EU/mL (242·1-311·5) in 310 group 2 participants (2 years after first dose). These values were 5·2 times higher in group 1 and 4·9 times higher in group 2 than before vaccination on day 1. 7 days after booster vaccination, these values increased to 10 781·6 EU/mL (9354·4-12 426·4) for group 1 and 10 746·9 EU/mL (9208·7-12 542·0) for group 2, which were approximately 39 times higher than before booster vaccination in both groups. 1 year after booster vaccination in 299 group 1 participants, a GMC that was 7·6-times higher than before booster vaccination was still observed (2133·1 EU/mL [1827·7-2489·7]).

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the vaccine regimen and booster dose were well tolerated. A similar and robust humoral immune response was observed for participants boosted 1 year and 2 years after the first dose, supporting the use of the regimen and flexibility of booster dose administration for prophylactic vaccination in at-risk populations.

FUNDING

Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking and Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

Strategic vaccine stockpiles for regional epidemics of emerging viruses: A geospatial modeling framework

Multinational epidemics of emerging infectious diseases are increasingly common, due to anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems and the growing connectivity of human populations. Early and efficient vaccination can contain outbreaks and prevent mass mortality, but optimal vaccine stockpiling strategies are dependent on pathogen characteristics, reservoir ecology, and epidemic dynamics. Here, we model major regional outbreaks of Nipah virus and Middle East respiratory syndrome, and use these to develop a generalized framework for estimating vaccine stockpile needs based on spillover geography, spatially-heterogeneous healthcare capacity and spatially-distributed human mobility networks. Because outbreak sizes were highly skewed, we found that most outbreaks were readily contained (median stockpile estimate for MERS-CoV: 2,089 doses; Nipah: 1,882 doses), but the maximum estimated stockpile need in a highly unlikely large outbreak scenario was 2-3 orders of magnitude higher (MERS-CoV: ∼87,000 doses; Nipah ∼ 1.1 million doses). Sensitivity analysis revealed that stockpile needs were more dependent on basic epidemiological parameters (i.e., death and recovery rate) and healthcare availability than any uncertainty related to vaccine efficacy or deployment strategy. Our results highlight the value of descriptive epidemiology for real-world modeling applications, and suggest that stockpile allocation should consider ecological, epidemiological, and social dimensions of risk.

Safety and Immunogenicity of the Heterologous 2-Dose Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Vaccine Regimen in Health Care Providers and Frontliners of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

In response to recent Ebola epidemics, vaccine development against the Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) has been fast-tracked in the past decade. Health care providers and frontliners working in Ebola-endemic areas are at high risk of contracting and spreading the virus.

METHODS

This study assessed the safety and immunogenicity of the 2-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen (administered at a 56-day interval) among 699 health care providers and frontliners taking part in a phase 2, monocentric, randomized vaccine trial in Boende, the Democratic Republic of Congo. The first participant was enrolled and vaccinated on 18 December 2019. Serious adverse events were collected up to 6 months after the last received dose. The EBOV glycoprotein FANG ELISA (Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was used to measure the immunoglobulin G-binding antibody response to the EBOV glycoprotein.

RESULTS

The vaccine regimen was well tolerated with no vaccine-related serious adverse events reported. Twenty-one days after the second dose, an EBOV glycoprotein-specific binding antibody response was observed in 95.2% of participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2-dose vaccine regimen was well tolerated and led to a high antibody response among fully vaccinated health care providers and frontliners in Boende.

Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease

Health emergencies caused by epidemic-prone pathogens (EPPs) have increased exponentially in recent decades. Although vaccines have proven beneficial, they are unavailable for many pathogens. Furthermore, achieving timely and equitable access to vaccines against EPPs is not trivial. It requires decision-makers to capture numerous interrelated factors across temporal and spatial scales, with significant uncertainties, variability, delays, and feedback loops that give rise to dynamic and unexpected behavior. Therefore, despite progress in filling R&D gaps, the path to licensure and the long-term viability of vaccines against EPPs continues to be unclear. This paper presents a quantitative system dynamics modeling framework to evaluate the long-term sustainability of vaccine supply under different vaccination strategies. Data from both literature and 50 expert interviews are used to model the supply and demand of a prototypical Ebolavirus Zaire (EBOV) vaccine. Specifically, the case study evaluates dynamics associated with proactive vaccination ahead of an outbreak of similar magnitude as the 2018-2020 epidemic in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. The scenarios presented demonstrate how uncertainties (e.g., duration of vaccine-induced protection) and design criteria (e.g., priority geographies and groups, target coverage, frequency of boosters) lead to important tradeoffs across policy aims, public health outcomes, and feasibility (e.g., technical, operational, financial). With sufficient context and data, the framework provides a foundation to apply the model to a broad range of additional geographies and priority pathogens. Furthermore, the ability to identify leverage points for long-term preparedness offers directions for further research.