Prenatal screening for trisomy 21: a comparative performance and cost analysis of different screening strategies

Impact of Structural Differences on the Modeled Cost-Effectiveness of Noninvasive Prenatal Testing

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) was developed to improve the accuracy of prenatal screening to detect chromosomal abnormalities. Published economic analyses have yielded different incremental cost-effective ratios (ICERs), leading to conclusions of NIPT being dominant, cost-effective, and cost-ineffective. These analyses have used different model structures, and the extent to which these structural variations have contributed to differences in ICERs is unclear.

AIM

To assess the impact of different model structures on the cost-effectiveness of NIPT for the detection of trisomy 21 (T21; Down syndrome).

METHODS

A systematic review identified economic models comparing NIPT to conventional screening. The key variations in identified model structures were the number of health states and modeling approach. New models with different structures were developed in TreeAge and populated with consistent parameters to enable a comparison of the impact of selected structural variations on results.

RESULTS

The review identified 34 economic models. Based on these findings, demonstration models were developed: 1) a decision tree with 3 health states, 2) a decision tree with 5 health states, 3) a microsimulation with 3 health states, and 4) a microsimulation with 5 health states. The base-case ICER from each model was 1) USD$34,474 (2023)/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), 2) USD$14,990 (2023)/QALY, (3) USD$54,983 (2023)/QALY, and (4) NIPT was dominated.

CONCLUSION

Model-structuring choices can have a large impact on the ICER and conclusions regarding cost-effectiveness, which may inadvertently affect policy decisions to support or not support funding for NIPT. The use of reference models could improve international consistency in health policy decision making for prenatal screening.

HIGHLIGHTS

NIPT is a clinical area in which a variety of modeling approaches have been published, with wide variation in reported cost-effectiveness.This study shows that when broader contextual factors are held constant, varying the model structure yields results that range from NIPT being less effective and more expensive than conventional screening (i.e., NIPT was dominated) through to NIPT being more effective and more expensive than conventional screening with an ICER of USD$54,983 (2023)/QALY.Model-structuring choices may inadvertently affect policy decisions to support or not support funding of NIPT. Reference models could improve international consistency in health policy decision making for prenatal screening.

Analysis of Down syndrome newborn outcomes in three neonatal intensive care units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze the outcomes of newborns with Down syndrome admitted to three neonatal intensive care units in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted by analyzing the medical records between 2014 and 2018 of newborns with Down syndrome admitted to three neonatal intensive care units. The following variables were analyzed: maternal and perinatal data, neonatal malformations, neonatal intensive care unit intercurrences, and outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 119 newborns with Down syndrome were recruited, and 112 were selected for analysis. The most common maternal age group was >35 years (72.07%), the most common type of delivery was cesarean section (83.93%), and the majority of cases were male (53.57%). The most common reasons for neonatal intensive care unit hospitalization were congenital heart disease (57.66%) and prematurity (23.21%). The most common form of feeding was a combination of human milk and formula (83.93%). The second most common malformation was duodenal atresia (9.82%). The most common complications during neonatal intensive care unit hospitalization were transient tachypnea of the newborn (63.39%), hypoglycemia (18.75%), pulmonary hypertension (7.14%), and sepsis (7.14%). The mean length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit was 27 days. The most common outcome was discharge (82.14%). Furthermore, 12.50% of newborns were transferred to an external neonatal intensive care unit, and 6% died.

CONCLUSION

Newborns with Down syndrome are more likely to be admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit, and the length of hospital stay is longer due to complications related to congenital malformations common to this syndrome and prematurity.

Economic evaluations of predictive genetic testing: A scoping review

Predictive genetic testing can provide information about whether or not someone will develop or is likely to develop a specific condition at a later stage in life. Economic evaluation can assess the value of money for such testing. Studies on the economic evaluation of predictive genetic testing have been carried out in a variety of settings, and this research aims to conduct a scoping review of findings from these studies. We searched the PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane databases with combined search terms, from 2019 to 2022. Relevant studies from 2013 to 2019 in a previous systematic review were also included. The study followed the recommended stages for undertaking a scoping review. A total of 53 studies were included, including 33 studies from the previous review and 20 studies from the search of databases. A significant number of studies focused on the US, UK, and Australia (34%, 23%, and 11%). The most frequently included health conditions were cancer and cardiovascular diseases (68% and 19%). Over half of the studies compared predictive genetic testing with no genetic testing, and the majority of them concluded that at least some type of genetic testing was cost-effective compared to no testing (94%). Some studies stated that predictive genetic testing is becoming more cost-effective with the trend of lowering genetic testing costs. Studies on predictive genetic testing covered various health conditions, particularly cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Most studies indicated that predictive genetic testing is cost-effective compared to no testing.

Non-Invasive prenatal testing with rolling circle amplification: Real-world clinical experience in a non-molecular laboratory

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) using cell-free DNA (cfDNA) circulating in maternal blood provides a sensitive and specific screening technique for common fetal aneuploidies, but the high cost and workflow complexity of conventional methodologies limit its widespread implementation. A unique rolling circle amplification methodology reduces cost and complexity, providing a promising alternative for increased global accessibility as a first-tier test.

METHODS

In this clinical study, 8160 pregnant women were screened on the Vanadis system for trisomies 13, 18, and 21, and positive results were compared to clinical outcomes where available.

RESULTS

The Vanadis system yielded a 0.07% no-call rate, a 98% overall sensitivity, and a specificity of over 99% based on available outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The Vanadis system provided a sensitive, specific, and cost-effective cfDNA assay for trisomies 13, 18, and 21, with good performance characteristics and low no-call rate, and it eliminated the need for either next-generation sequencing or polymerase chain reaction amplification.

Focus on the frontier issue: progress in noninvasive prenatal screening for fetal trisomy from clinical perspectives

The discovery of cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) in maternal blood and the rapid development of massively parallel sequencing have revolutionized prenatal testing from invasive to noninvasive. Noninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) based on cffDNA enables the detection of fetal trisomy through sequencing, comparison, and bioassays. Its accuracy is better than that of traditional screening methods, and it is the most advanced clinical application of high-throughput sequencing technologies. However, the existing sequencing methods are limited by high costs and complex sequencing procedures. These limitations restrict the availability of NIPS for pregnant women. Many amplification methods have been developed to overcome the limitations of sequencing methods. The rapid development of non-sequencing methods has not been accompanied by reviews to summarize them. In this review, we initially describe the detection principles for sequencing-based NIPS. We summarize the rapidly evolving amplification technologies, focusing on the need to reduce costs and simplify the procedures. To ensure that the testing systems are feasible and that the testing processes are reliable, we expand our vision to the clinic. We evaluate the clinical validity of NIPS in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. Finally, we summarize the application guidelines and discuss the corresponding quality control methods for NIPS. In addition to cffDNA, extracellular vesicle DNA, RNA, protein/peptide, and fetal cells can also be detected as biomarkers of NIPS. With the development of prenatal testing, NIPS has become increasingly important. Notably, NIPS is a screening test instead of a diagnostic test. The testing methods and procedures used in the NIPS process require standardization.

Maternal prenatal screening programs that predict trisomy 21, trisomy 18, and neural tube defects in offspring

OBJECTIVE

To determine the efficacy of three different maternal screening programs (first-trimester screening [FTS], individual second-trimester screening [ISTS], and first- and second-trimester combined screening [FSTCS]) in predicting offspring with trisomy 21, trisomy 18, and neural tube defects (NTDs).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort involving 108,118 pregnant women who received prenatal screening tests during the first (9-13+6 weeks) and second trimester (15-20+6 weeks) in Hangzhou, China from January-December 2019, as follows: FTS, 72,096; ISTS, 36,022; and FSTCS, 67,631 gravidas.

RESULT

The high and intermediate risk positivity rates for trisomy 21 screening with FSTCS (2.40% and 5.57%) were lower than ISTS (9.02% and 16.14%) and FTS (2.71% and 7.19%); there were statistically significant differences in the positivity rates among the screening programs (all P < 0.05). Detection of trisomy 21 was as follows: ISTS, 68.75%; FSTCS, 63.64%; and FTS, 48.57%. Detection of trisomy 18 was as follows; FTS and FSTCS, 66.67%; and ISTS, 60.00%. There were no statistical differences in the detection rates for trisomy 21 and 18 among the 3 screening programs (all P > 0.05). The positive predictive values (PPVs) for trisomy 21 and 18 were highest with FTS, while the false positive rate (FPR) was lowest with FSTCS.

CONCLUSION

FSTCS was superior to FTS and ISTS screening and substantially reduced the number of high risk pregnancies for trisomy 21 and 18; however, FSTCS was not significantly different in detecting fetal trisomy 21 and 18 and other confirmed cases with chromosomal abnormalities.

Investigation of the lawsuits regarding Down syndrome

Objective: To examine the number of cases filed about Down syndrome in terms of its numbers, causes and consequences, to provide an overview of what doctors should pay attention to when informing and consulting patients and during follow-up and recommend solutions for decreasing the number of malpractice cases. (Discussing the legal aspect of the decisions is beyond the scope of this research.) Materials and Methods: ‘Down’, ‘Down sendromu’ ‘Down’s, ‘trizomi 21 ‘, ‘trisomi 21’ and ‘trisomy 21’ was written to ‘ https:// karararama.yargitay.gov.tr/ ‘ and ‘https://karararama.danistay.gov.tr/’ web addresses search engines and the data was examined with Microsoft Excel or with R version 4.0.5 ( 2021-03-31) for bias and frequency table was used and the results were examined. Results: A total of 53 cases were found. 49 supreme court and 4 Council of State court decisions are found. The cases are from 27.10.2009 to 13.10.2021. Conclusion: A total of 39 different Down syndrome cases were examined, as 6 of the 53 cases were related to the same cases and 8 of them were cases not related to Down syndrome. 28 cases are “doctor negligence”, 5 are “reckless killing”, 1 “material mixing in the genetic center”, 1 “unauthorized use of the child’s photo”, 1 “stealing money from the child”, 1 “intentionally injuring the child”, 1 ‘inheritance request for the child’ and 1 on ‘guardianship’.

False-positives and false-negatives in non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT): what can we learn from a meta-analyses on > 750,000 tests?

Background

Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) has had an incomparable triumph in prenatal diagnostics in the last decade. Over 1400 research articles have been published, predominantly praising the advantages of this test.

Methods

The present study identified among the 1400 papers 24 original and one review paper, which were suited to re-evaluate the efficacy of > 750,000 published NIPT-results. Special attention was given to false-positive and false-negative result-rates. Those were discussed under different aspects—mainly from a patient-perspective.

Results

A 27: 1 rate of false-positive compared to false-negative NIPT results was found. Besides, according to all reported, real-positive, chromosomally aberrant NIPT cases, 90% of those would have been aborted spontaneously before birth. These findings are here discussed under aspects like (i) How efficient is NIPT compared to first trimester screening? (ii) What are the differences in expectations towards NIPT from specialists and the public? and (iii) There should also be children born suffering from not by NIPT tested chromosomal aberrations; why are those never reported in all available NIPT studies?

Conclusions

Even though much research has been published on NIPT, unbiased figures concerning NIPT and first trimester screening efficacy are yet not available. While false positive rates of different NIPT tests maybe halfway accurate, reported false-negative rates are most likely too low. The latter is as NIPT-cases with negative results for tested conditions are yet not in detail followed up for cases with other genetic or teratogenic caused disorders. This promotes an image in public, that NIPT is suited to replace all invasive tests, and also to solve the problem of inborn errors in humans, if not now then in near future. Overall, it is worth discussing the usefulness of NIPT in practical clinical application. Particularly, asking for unbiased figures concerning the efficacy of first trimester-screening compared to NIPT, and for really comprehensive data on false-positive and false-negative NIPT results.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening Strategies Involving Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing for Trisomy 21

Introduction

In accordance with social development, the proportion of advanced maternal age (AMA) increased and the cost of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) decreased.

Objective

We aimed to investigate the benefits and cost-effectiveness of NIPT as primary or contingent strategies limited to the high-risk population of trisomy 21 (T21).

Methods

Referring to parameters from publications or on-site verification, a theoretical model involving 1,000,000 single pregnancies was established. We presented five screening scenarios, primary NIPT (Strategy 1), contingent NIPT after traditional triple serum screening higher than 1/300 or 1/1,000 (Strategy 2-1 or 2-2), and age-based Strategy 3. Strategy 3 was stratified, with the following options: (1) for advanced maternal age (AMA) of 40 years and more, diagnostic testing was offered, (2) for AMA of 35-39 years, NIPT was introduced, (3) if younger than 35 years of age, contingent NIPT with risk higher than 1:300 (Strategy 3-1) or 1:1,000 (Strategy 3-2) will be offered. The primary outcome was an incremental cost analysis on the baseline and alternative assumptions, taking aging society, NIPT price, and compliance into consideration. The strategy was "appropriate" when the incremental cost was less than the cost of raising one T21 child (0.215 million US$). The second outcome included total cost, cost-effect, cost-benefit analysis, and screening efficiency.

Results

Strategy1 was costly, while detecting most T21. Strategy 2-1 reduced unnecessary prenatal diagnosis (PD) and was optimal in total cost, cost-effect, and cost-benefit analysis, nevertheless, T21 detection was the least. Strategy 3 induced most of the PD procedures. Then, setting Strategy2-1 as a baseline for incremental cost analysis, Strategy 3-1 was appropriate. In sensitivity analysis, when the NIPT price was lower than 47 US$, Strategy 1 was the most appropriate. In a society with more than 20% of people older than 35 years of age, the incremental cost of Strategy 3-2 was proper.

Conclusion

Combined strategies involving NIPT reduced unnecessary diagnostic tests. The AMA proportion and NIPT price played critical roles in the strategic decision. The age-based strategy was optimal in incremental cost analysis and was presented to be prominent as AMA proportion and NIPT acceptance increased. The primary NIPT was the most effective, but only at a certain price, it became the most cost-effective strategy.

Nasal bone in fetal aneuploidy risk assessment: are they independent markers in the first and second trimesters?

OBJECTIVES

In the mid-trimester ultrasound, nasal bone (NB) length can be used to correct the a priori risk for trisomy 21. Our study aims to evaluate if there is a correlation between an absent NB in the first trimester and a hypoplastic NB in the second trimester.

METHODS

Our two year retrospective analysis of data derived from routine clinical practice. Single euploid fetuses were included. The NB was assessed in both trimesters according to international guidelines and transformed into categorical variables. Logistic regression was performed in order to accomplish our main objective.

RESULTS

From the 759 normal pregnancies included, 45 (5.93%) had abnormal NB in the first trimester and 23 (3%) in the second trimester. Eleven cases (47.8%) of the abnormal NB in the second trimester were abnormal in the 11-14 weeks scan. After the diagnosis of an absent NB in the first trimester the odds ratio (OR) for a hypoplastic NB in the second trimester is 18.926 (7.791-45.977; p-value <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest a strong association between the NB in the first and in the second trimester in normal euploid fetuses. This is important information to consider when counseling patients on the basis of this ultrasound marker.

Assessment and Clinical Utility of a Non-Next-Generation Sequencing-Based Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing Technology

Background: Rolling-circle replication (RCR) is a novel technology that has not been applied to cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing until recently. Given the cost and simplicity advantages of this technology compared to other platforms currently used in cfDNA analysis, an assessment of RCR in clinical laboratories was performed. Here, we present the first validation study from clinical laboratories utilizing RCR technology. Methods: 831 samples from spontaneously pregnant women carrying a singleton fetus, and 25 synthetic samples, were analyzed for the fetal risk of trisomy 21 (T21), trisomy 18 (T18) and trisomy 13 (T13), by three laboratories on three continents. All the screen-positive pregnancies were provided post-test genetic counseling and confirmatory diagnostic invasive testing (e.g., amniocentesis). The screen-negative pregnancies were routinely evaluated at birth for fetal aneuploidies, using newborn examinations, and any suspected aneuploidies would have been offered diagnostic testing or confirmed with karyotyping. Results: The study found rolling-circle replication to be a highly viable technology for the clinical assessment of fetal aneuploidies, with 100% sensitivity for T21 (95% CI: 82.35-100.00%); 100.00% sensitivity for T18 (71.51-100.00%); and 100.00% sensitivity for T13 analyses (66.37-100.00%). The specificities were >99% for each trisomy (99.7% (99.01-99.97%) for T21; 99.5% (98.62-99.85%) for T18; 99.7% (99.03-99.97%) for T13), along with a first-pass no-call rate of 0.93%. Conclusions: The study showed that using a rolling-circle replication-based cfDNA system for the evaluation of the common aneuploidies would provide greater accuracy and clinical utility compared to conventional biochemical screening, and it would provide comparable results to other reported cfDNA methodologies.