The impact of antenatal care on under-five mortality in Ethiopia: a difference-in-differences analysis

Application of machine learning methods for predicting under-five mortality: analysis of Nigerian demographic health survey 2018 dataset

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality remains a significant public health issue in developing countries. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms in predicting under-five mortality in Nigeria and identify the most relevant predictors.

METHODS

The study used nationally representative data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The study evaluated the performance of the machine learning models such as the artificial neural network, k-nearest neighbourhood, Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression using the true positive rate, false positive rate, accuracy, precision, F-measure, Matthew's correlation coefficient, and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics.

RESULTS

The study found that machine learning models can accurately predict under-five mortality, with the Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network algorithms emerging as the best models, both achieving an accuracy of 89.47% and an AUROC of 96%. The results show that under-five mortality rates vary significantly across different characteristics, with wealth index, maternal education, antenatal visits, place of delivery, employment status of the woman, number of children ever born, and region found to be the top determinants of under-five mortality in Nigeria.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that machine learning models can be useful in predicting U5M in Nigeria with high accuracy. The study emphasizes the importance of addressing social, economic, and demographic disparities among the population in Nigeria. The study's findings can inform policymakers and health workers about developing targeted interventions to reduce under-five mortality in Nigeria.

Count regression models analysis of factors affecting antenatal care utilization in Ethiopia: original article

Background

Antenatal care (ANC) reduces maternal and newborn mortalities and makes it easier to find infections early and prevent them from progressing. This study aimed to identify factors affecting ANC utilization in Ethiopia via the count regression model.

Methods

The data for the study was drawn from the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey dataset. Count regression models, such as Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP), and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) models, were used to determine the factors influencing ANC utilization.

Results

A total of 3962 women were included in the study. Only about 42% of women used the WHO-recommended number of ANC of a minimum of four visits. The ZIP model was outperforming to fit the data as compared to other count regression models. Rural residence (IRR=0.8832, 95% CI: 0.8264-0.9440), being resident of the Somalia region (IRR=0.4762, 95% CI: 0.3919-0.5785), SNNPR (IRR=0.8716, 95% CI: 0.7913-0.9600), and Gambela Region (IRR=0.7830, 95% CI: 0.7063-0.8680), being Muslim (IRR=0.9384, 95% CI: 0.8876-0.9921) decrease the ANC utilization. Contrarily, Addis Ababa residence (IRR=1.1171, 95% CI: 1.0181-1.2259), primary education (IRR=1.1278, 95% CI: 1.0728-1.1855), secondary and higher education (IRR=1.2357, 95% CI: 1.1550-1.3220), middle wealth index (IRR=1.0855, 95% CI: 1.0095-1.1671) and rich wealth index (IRR=1.0941, 95% CI: 1.0152-1.1790) increase the ANC utilization.

Conclusion

The ZIP model best fitted the data compared to others. The study revealed that being poor, rural resident, uneducated, Somalia region resident, SNNPR resident, Gambela region resident, and Muslim were factors associated with lower ANC utilization. Thus, health education is needed to be given for mothers with no education. In addition, building a strong awareness-creation program regarding ANC is required for rural residents so as to improve the level of ANC utilization in Ethiopia.

Effect of optimal antenatal care on maternal and perinatal health in Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Receiving at least four antenatal care (ANC) visits have paramount importance on the health of mothers and perinates. In Ethiopia, several studies were conducted on ANC service utilization; however, limited studies quantified the effect of care on maternal and perinate health. In response to this gap, this study is conducted to quantify the effect of optimal ANC care (≥4 visits) on maternal and perinatal health among women who received optimal care in comparison to women who did not receive optimal care.

METHODS

The study utilized the Ethiopian perinatal death surveillance and response (PDSR) system dataset. A total of 3,814 reviewed perinatal deaths were included in the study. Considering the nature of the data, preferential within propensity score matching (PWPSM) was performed to determine the effect of optimal ANC care on maternal and perinatal health. The effect of optimal care was reported using average treatment effects of the treated [ATT].

RESULT

The result revealed that optimal ANC care had a positive effect on reducing perinatal death, due to respiratory and cardiovascular disorders, [ATT = -0.015, 95%CI (-0.029 to -0.001)] and extending intrauterine life by one week [ATT = 1.277, 95%CI: (0.563-1.991)]. While it's effect on maternal health includes, avoiding the risk of having uterine rupture [ATT = -0.012, 95%CI: (-0.018 to -0.005)], improving the utilization of operative vaginal delivery (OVD) [ATT = 0.032, 95%CI: (0.001-0.062)] and avoiding delay to decide to seek care [ATT = -0.187, 95%CI: (-0.354 to -0.021)].

CONCLUSION

Obtaining optimal ANC care has a positive effect on both maternal and perinatal health. Therefore, policies and interventions geared towards improving the coverage and quality of ANC services should be the top priority to maximize the benefit of the care.

Measuring the Protective Effect of Health Insurance Coverage on Out-of-Pocket Expenditures During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Peruvian Population

BACKGROUND

Health insurance coverage is expected to protect individuals from out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures, potentially preventing them from falling into poverty. However, to date, the effect of health insurance on OOP spending during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has not been fully explored. This study aimed to estimate differences in the proportion and the amount of OOP expenditures among Peruvians during the pre- and post-mandatory lockdown response to COVID-19 in 2020 according to the health insurance coverage status.

METHODS

This study utilized repeated cross-sectional data from the National Household Survey on Living and Poverty Conditions (ENAHO) from the first quarter of 2017 until the fourth quarter of 2020. The outcomes were (i) the proportion of individuals who incurred OOP expenditures and (ii) the monetary value of OOP expenditures. An interrupted time series analysis (ITS) and a quasi-experimental difference-in-difference (DID) analysis were performed to examine the outcomes among the control (individuals without health insurance) and treatment groups (individuals with health insurance) after the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

ITS analysis showed that the proportion of individuals reporting OOP expenditures after implementation of mandatory lockdown due to COVID-19 in Peru decreased in both groups, but no difference in the slope trend was found (P=.916). The average quarterly amount of OOP spending increased in both groups, but no difference in the slope trend was found (P=.073). Lastly, the DID analysis showed that the mandatory lockdown was associated with a higher amount of OOP, but there was no evidence to indicate that the higher amount was different between the control and treatment groups.

CONCLUSION

The mandatory lockdown in response to the COVID-19 was associated with a higher amount of OOP expenditures and a lower likelihood of incurring OOP expenditures. However, our findings suggest that health insurance coverage does not lower OOP expenditures or reduce the likelihood of incurring OOP expenditures.

Factors Affecting Nonadherence to WHO’s Recommended Antenatal Care Visits among Women in Pastoral Community, Northeastern Ethiopia: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction. More than half of the pregnant women in Ethiopia do not receive the recommended number of antenatal care visits. In the Afar region, where women have limited access to healthcare services due to pastoral livelihood, evidence on noncompliance to the adequate number of antenatal care visits is scarce. Therefore, this study was intended to examine the level of nonadherence to the recommended antenatal care visits and its associated factors in the pastoral community of Northeast Ethiopia. Methods. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from 04 February to 22 March 2020 among randomly selected 703 women who gave birth within 24 months preceding the survey in the Transform HDR districts of the Afar region. Data were collected using a pretested structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. Data were entered into Epi-data version 4.2 and finally exported to Stata version 16 for further analysis. Bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were done to identify factors affecting the nonadherence to the recommended antenatal care visits. Odds ratio with the corresponding 95% confidence interval were computed and the statistical significance of the explanatory variables was declared at a $p$ -value <0.05. Results. Nonadherence to the recommended antenatal care visits was 57.0% (95% CI: 53.3%–60.7%). Attending primary (AOR (95% CI): 0.39 (0.22–0.72)) and secondary education and above (AOR (95% CI): 0.25 (0.08–0.77)), being married at the age of 18 years or older (AOR (95% CI): 0.48 (0.36–0.71)), and attending antenatal care at a health center (AOR (95% CI): 0.46 (0.26–0.81)) were associated decreased odds of nonadherence to the recommend visits. Moreover, a higher likelihood of nonadherence was found among women from households not possessing communication media (AOR (95% CI): 1.85 (1.18–2.88)) and those who initiated antenatal care attendance during the second (AOR (95% CI): 5.23 (3.54–7.72)) and third trimesters (AOR (95% CI): 8.81 (1.88–41.20)). Conclusions. Nearly six in ten women do not receive the recommended antenatal care visits, consistent with the national prevalence. Women’s education, age at marriage, type of health facility, possession of mass media, and timing of antenatal care attendance were associated with nonadherence to the recommended antenatal care visits. Thus, improving women’s literacy, dissemination of information regarding antenatal care through mass media, and strengthening interventions targeted to end child marriage are important in scaling up the level of adherence. Moreover, supporting community-based health education through health extension programs is crucial in reaching women with limited access to mass media.

Decomposing the urban-rural inequalities in the utilisation of maternal health care services: evidence from 27 selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background

There has been a substantial improvement in reducing maternal mortality in the Sub-Saharan African region. The vast rural-urban gap in maternal health outcomes, however, is obscured by this average achievement. This study attempts to measure the contribution of identified risk factors to describe the average rural-urban difference in the use of antenatal care, health facilities for delivery, and health professional assistance at delivery.

Method

To achieve this objective, we used descriptive analysis and Fairlie non-linear decomposition method to quantify covariates’ contribution in explaining the urban–rural difference in maternal healthcare services utilisation.

Result

The study’s finding shows much difference between urban and rural areas in the use of maternal healthcare services. Socio-economic factors such as household wealth index, exposure to media, and educational level of women and their husbands/partners contributed the most in explaining the gap between urban and rural areas in healthcare services utilisation.

Conclusions

Interventions to bridge the gap between urban and rural areas in maternal healthcare services utilisation in Sub-Saharan Africa should be centred towards socio-economic empowerment. Government can enforce targeted awareness campaigns to encourage women in rural communities in Sub-Sharan Africa to take the opportunity and use the available maternal health care services to be at par with their counterparts in urban areas.

Maternal health refers to the health of women throughout pregnancy, delivery, and the postnatal period. Each step should be a good experience that ensures mothers, and their infants realize their maximum health and well-being potential. In this study, we used individual, demographic, and socio-economic characteristics to measure the urban–rural discrepancies in maternal health care services in Sub-Saharan Africa. We used Information of 220 164 women of child-bearing age (15–49) gathered from National Demographic Health Surveys from 27 countries in the Sub-Sahara African region. We found 46.1% of women in rural areas had no education, 39.7% of the women in rural areas have husbands/partners with no education, and 60.1% of the women in rural areas are from households with poor wealth indexes. The use of maternal health care services found to be predominant in the urban areas than rural areas, and the measure of this difference can inform policymakers on the level of effort that needed to be put in place to balance the discrepancies and improve maternal health in general.

Social capital and maternal and child health services uptake in low- and middle-income countries: mixed methods systematic review

BACKGROUND

Social capital has become an important concept in the field of public health, and is associated with improved health services uptake. This study aimed to systematically review the available literature on the role of social capital on the utilization of maternal and child health services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Mixed-methods research review and synthesis using three databases PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct for peer-reviewed literature and Google Scholar and Google search engines for gray literature were performed. Both quantitative and qualitative studies conducted in LMICs, published in English and in grey literature were considered. Prior to inclusion in the review methodological quality was assessed using a standardized critical appraisal instrument.

RESULTS

A total of 1,545 studies were identified, of which 13 records were included after exclusions of studies due to duplicates, reading titles, abstracts, and full-text reviews. Of these eligible studies, six studies were included for quantitative synthesis, and seven were included for qualitative synthesis. Of the six quantitative studies, five of them addressed the association between social capital and health facility delivery. Women who lived in communities with higher membership in groups that helps to form intergroup bridging ties had higher odds of using antenatal care services. Synthesized qualitative findings revealed that women received some form of emotional, informational, and instrumental support from their network members. Receiving health information from trusted people and socio-cultural factors influenced the use of maternal and child health services.

CONCLUSIONS

Social capital has a great contribution to improve maternal and child health services. Countries aiming at improving maternal and child health services can be benefited from adapting existing context-specific social networks in the community. This review identified limited available evidence examining the role of social capital on maternal and child health services uptake and future studies may be required for an in-depth understanding of how social capital could improve maternal and child health services.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021226923.

Does attitude towards wife beating determine infant feeding practices during diarrheal illness in sub-Saharan Africa?

Background

Inappropriate feeding practices of children during illness remains a public health problem globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). One strategy to improve child health outcomes is through women empowerment—measured by wife beating attitude. However, the role of attitude towards wife beating in child feeding practices has not been comprehensively studied. Therefore, we investigated the association between women's attitude towards wife beating and child feeding practices during childhood diarrhea in 28 countries in SSA.

Methods

We analyzed data from the Demographic and Health Survey on 40,720 children under 5 years. Bivariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were applied to assess the association between women's attitude towards wife beating and child feeding practices. The results were presented using adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

The pooled results showed that appropriate feeding practices during diarrheal illness among under-five children was 9.3% in SSA, varying from 0.4% in Burkina Faso to 21.1% in Kenya. Regarding regional coverage, the highest coverage was observed in Central Africa (9.3%) followed by East Africa (5.5%), Southern Africa (4.8%), and West Africa (4.2%). Women who disagreed with wife-beating practices had higher odds of proper child feeding practices during childhood diarrhea compared to those who justified wife-beating practices (aOR = 2.02, 95% CI; 1.17–3.48).

Conclusion

The findings suggest that women’s disagreement with wife beating is strongly associated with proper child feeding practices during diarrheal illness in SSA. Proactive measures and interventions designed to change attitudes towards wife-beating practices are crucial to improving proper feeding practices in SSA.

Assessing the Impact of the National Sustainable Development Planning of Resource-Based Cities Policy on Pollution Emission Intensity: Evidence from 270 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

The question of how to achieve the sustainable development of resource-based cities has been a major concern for the whole world. In response, the Chinese government has introduced the National Sustainable Development Planning of Resource-Based Cities Policy (SDPRP) to address sustainable development issues in resource-based cities. However, few studies have evaluated the environmental effects of the implementation of the SDPRP. Therefore, difference-in-differences (DID) and mediation effect models were applied to investigate the impact of the SDPRP on pollution emission intensity using balanced panel data for 270 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018. The statistical results reveal that the SDPRP significantly reduced pollution emission intensity. Robustness test results showed that the conclusions are robust. Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of the SDPRP on pollution emission intensity increased year after year. We also found that the SDPRP can reduce pollution emission intensity by facilitating technological innovation, accelerating digital transformation, and improving human capital level, in which the role of human capital is stronger, while the role of digital transformation is weaker. The heterogeneity results suggest that compared with mature resource-based cities, the SDPRP had a stronger inhibitory effect on the pollution emission intensity in declining resource-based cities. However, the impact of the SDPRP on pollution emission intensities in growing resource-based cities was significant, while it was not significant in regenerative resource-based cities. Similarly, the SDPRP had a significantly greater inhibitory effect on pollution emission intensity in megacities than in large cities, while it increased the pollution emission intensity in small- and medium-sized cities.